Admiral Group (AMIGY) AI Stock Analysis

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Admiral Group

(OTC:AMIGY)

Rating:78Outperform

Price Target:

$51.00

▲(11.79%Upside)

Admiral Group's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the main contributors to its high score. The company's robust revenue growth, improved profitability, and strategic focus on technology support its leading position. Technical analysis shows a strong upward trend, while valuation metrics suggest fair pricing with an attractive dividend yield.

Admiral Group (AMIGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$13.82B

Dividend Yield5.36%

Average Volume (3M)12.19K

Price to Earnings (P/E)16.5

Beta (1Y)0.23

Revenue Growth38.65%

EPS Growth101.27%

CountryUS

Employees15,432

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength82

IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.80

Shares Outstanding306,304,700

10 Day Avg. Volume0

30 Day Avg. Volume12,188

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.21

Price to Book (P/B)7.90

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio16.35

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

Admiral Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAdmiral Group plc provides car insurance products in the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, France, India, and the United States. The company operates through UK Insurance, International Insurance, Admiral Loans, and Other segments. It underwrites car, van, household, and travel insurance, as well as offers unsecured personal and car loans, and legal services. It offers its insurance products under the Admiral, Apparent, Balumba, Bell, Diamond, Elephant, Elephant Auto, Gladiator, L'Olivier, Qualitas Auto, and WiYou Seguros brand names, as well as through Compare.com and ConTe.it. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Cardiff, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes MoneyAdmiral Group makes money primarily through the premiums collected from its insurance products, which include motor, home, travel, and pet insurance. The company's revenue model is based on underwriting profits and investment income. Underwriting profits are generated when the premiums collected exceed the claims paid out and the operating expenses associated with managing these policies. Additionally, the company earns interest and investment returns on the premiums held before claims are paid. Admiral Group also benefits from ancillary revenue streams, including fees from add-on insurance products and services. Significant partnerships with automobile manufacturers, banks, and financial institutions also contribute to its earnings by expanding its distribution channels and customer base.

Admiral Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 06, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: 26.72%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected a very strong performance overall, with record profitability and growth driven by UK Motor insurance. While there were challenges in Italy and a contraction in the U.S. market, the positive aspects significantly outweighed the negatives.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Group Profitability

Group profitability reached GBP 839 million, an all-time high, driven by UK Motor insurance delivering close to GBP 1 billion of profits.

Strong Turnover Growth

Reported 28% turnover growth with a 14% increase in customer base and higher average premiums than 2023 across the board.

International Profits

France and U.S. reported double-digit profits, and Admiral Money and UK Household also posted strong results.

Strong Solvency and Dividend Increase

Solvency ratio over 200% and full year dividend up 90% to 192p a share.

Admiral Money Growth

Admiral Money's outstanding balances increased by 23%, with profit up 30%.

Negative Updates

Challenges in Italy

ConTe reported a GBP 23 million loss due to challenging market conditions with high bodily injury inflation.

U.S. Market Contraction

U.S. turnaround required shrinking the customer base, though profitability improved.

Company Guidance

In the call, Admiral Group provided detailed guidance on their 2024 performance and future outlook. The company reported a 28% turnover growth, driven by a 14% increase in their customer base and higher average premiums compared to 2023. Group profitability reached an all-time high of GBP 839 million, with UK Motor insurance contributing nearly GBP 1 billion in profits. Admiral also highlighted the success of their international operations, with France and the U.S. achieving double-digit profits. They maintained a strong solvency ratio of over 200% and emphasized their strategic focus on data, AI, and technology to enhance capabilities. The company also announced a dividend increase of 90% year-on-year, reflecting their robust financial position. For 2025, Admiral expects softer market conditions but remains confident in their disciplined approach and agility to adapt to changes, with anticipated continued growth and profitability across their diversified insurance lines.

Admiral Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Admiral Group shows strong revenue growth but faces challenges in profitability and cash flow management. The balance sheet indicates moderate leverage but a need for equity ratio improvement. Operational efficiency, debt management, and cash flow optimization are crucial areas for enhancement.

Income Statement

Neutral

Admiral Group's income statement shows significant revenue growth from the previous year, but the company faced a negative EBIT, impacting profitability. The gross profit margin improved, indicating cost management, but the net profit margin remains modest due to the negative EBIT. The company should focus on improving operational efficiency to enhance profitability.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reveals a mixed picture. While the company maintains a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating moderate leverage, the return on equity has decreased due to lower net income. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a higher reliance on liabilities. Strengthening equity and managing debt could improve financial stability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Admiral Group's cash flow statement reflects a decline in free cash flow growth, impacted by decreased operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio shows a healthy conversion, but the free cash flow to net income ratio indicates potential challenges in sustaining free cash flow. Improving cash flow efficiency will be crucial for future growth.

TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.49B	3.55B	1.49B	1.55B	1.31B	1.35B
	Gross Profit
4.50B	3.91B	1.49B	1.55B	1.31B	1.35B
	EBIT
561.30M	-800.00K	483.60M	979.80M	484.30M	56.70M
	EBITDA
7.50M	57.90M	525.50M	1.05B	527.10M	99.20M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
400.90M	338.00M	286.50M	583.30M	528.80M	432.40M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
476.80M	3.14B	2.67B	458.00M	363.60M	398.20M
	Total Assets
6.80B	7.10B	8.94B	8.36B	7.84B	7.59B
	Total Debt
444.20M	1.21B	1.03B	776.20M	607.80M	665.80M
	Net Debt
-32.60M	896.80M	730.60M	318.20M	244.20M	267.60M
	Total Liabilities
6.03B	6.10B	7.98B	6.95B	6.72B	6.67B
	Stockholders Equity
758.30M	991.80M	954.20M	1.41B	1.11B	909.40M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
536.40M	203.10M	366.50M	175.40M	565.70M	203.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
599.40M	279.00M	465.10M	244.60M	608.80M	236.60M
	Investing Cash Flow
-328.60M	-438.20M	-101.00M	387.80M	-43.10M	-33.60M
	Financing Cash Flow
-353.50M	-171.80M	-425.00M	-564.80M	-498.10M	-304.90M

Admiral Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price45.62

Price Trends

50DMA

41.45

Positive

100DMA

37.92

Positive

200DMA

35.66

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.10

Positive

RSI

61.86

Neutral

STOCH

45.84

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMIGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.30, above the 50-day MA of 41.45, and above the 200-day MA of 35.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMIGY.

Admiral Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AXS	82 Outperform	$8.21B	10.28	15.43%	1.69%	6.76%	54.56%
THG	79 Outperform	$6.19B	14.35	15.74%	2.03%	3.09%	168.29%
AMIGY	78 Outperform	$13.82B	16.49	57.04%	5.36%	38.65%	101.27%
RLI	76 Outperform	$6.91B	24.75	17.99%	0.80%	9.18%	-16.06%
CNA	70 Outperform	$12.71B	14.31	8.98%	3.83%	6.34%	-28.19%
AFG	66 Neutral	$10.34B	12.92	18.51%	2.51%	3.76%	-9.12%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.76B	9.77	7.59%	16985.66%	12.30%	-7.71%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

AMIGY

Admiral Group

45.10

12.40

37.92%

AFG

American Financial Group

125.16

5.47

4.57%

AXS

Axis Capital

106.93

36.35

51.50%

CNA

CNA Financial

47.13

5.87

14.23%

RLI

75.93

6.89

9.98%

THG

Hanover Insurance

175.12

48.85

38.69%

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.