Cincinnati Financial (CINF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $23.35B
• Dividend Yield: 2.33%
• Average Volume (3M): 509.70K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: 2.44%
• EPS Growth: -38.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,624
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 81
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): -0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 156,303,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 600,219
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 509,702
• PEG Ratio: -0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.50
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.90
• 1Y Price Target: $153.80
• Price Target Upside: 5.26% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $162.00 ▲(10.88%Upside)

Cincinnati Financial's overall score reflects its solid financial performance, characterized by a strong balance sheet and cash flow. Technical analysis supports a stable trend, while the valuation suggests the stock is fairly priced. The recent positive corporate event is noted but not factored into the score due to its exclusion from the weighted calculation.

Positive Factors

Earnings

The 1Q25 result came in better than the forecast of an $0.89/sh loss and consensus at a $0.64/sh loss, mainly due to lower-than-expected catastrophe losses.

Investment Potential

The recent stock market correction offers investors a window of opportunity to purchase CINF shares at a favorable valuation.

Valuation

CINF's valuation now screens as relatively inexpensive with a P/E ratio of ~11x, indicating potential for future growth.

Negative Factors

Reinsurance Costs

The reinstatement premiums for the LA wildfires created a 210bps headwind in underwriting margins.

Stock Market Impact

Shares of CINF have been negatively impacted by the YTD decline in the stock market, leading to a 7% decrease in share value.

Wildfire Loss Impact

The California Wildfire exposure led to a significant estimated loss for CINF, affecting their 2025 EPS estimate.

Cincinnati Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) is a leading insurance company headquartered in Fairfield, Ohio. The company operates primarily in the property and casualty insurance sector, offering a broad range of insurance products, including commercial, personal, and life insurance. Through its subsidiaries, Cincinnati Financial provides coverage for businesses, homes, automobiles, and personal liabilities, catering to the needs of both individual and commercial clients across the United States.

How the Company Makes Money

Cincinnati Financial makes money primarily through the underwriting of insurance policies and investment income. The company's revenue streams include premiums collected from policyholders in exchange for coverage against various risks. The underwriting process involves assessing risks, determining appropriate pricing, and issuing policies that align with the company's risk management strategies. Additionally, Cincinnati Financial generates income from its investment portfolio, which consists of bonds, stocks, and other financial instruments. The company strategically invests the premiums it collects to earn returns that contribute significantly to its profitability. Partnerships with independent insurance agencies play a crucial role in distributing Cincinnati Financial's products and expanding its market reach, thereby enhancing revenue generation.

Cincinnati Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cincinnati Financial shows solid financial health with a strong balance sheet and robust cash flow metrics. The low debt-to-equity ratio and strong cash flow conversion are notable strengths. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability, evidenced by declining margins and revenue, are areas for improvement.

Income Statement

Cincinnati Financial exhibits a moderate performance with a current TTM gross profit margin of 100% due to zero cost structure in the insurance sector. The net profit margin for the TTM is 13.2%, lower than the previous annual period of 20.2%, indicating margin compression. Revenue has decreased by 3.25% in the TTM compared to the last annual report, showing challenges in revenue growth. The EBIT margin in the TTM stands at 17.5%, down from 25.2% annually, suggesting pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Cincinnati Financial maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.062 in the TTM, reflecting prudent leverage management. The equity ratio has improved to 36.8%, indicating a solid capital structure. Return on equity has seen a decline to 10.5% in the TTM from 16.4%, highlighting reduced profitability relative to shareholder equity.

Cash Flow

The company's cash flow generation is robust, with a stable operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.8 in the TTM. Free cash flow growth rate shows a slight decline of 2.19%, yet free cash flow remains strong at $2.59 billion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 1.79, indicating effective cash conversion from net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.97B	11.34B	10.01B	6.56B	9.63B	7.54B
Gross Profit	10.97B	11.34B	10.01B	6.56B	9.63B	7.54B
EBITDA	1.97B	2.91B	2.44B	-514.00M	3.82B	0.00
Net Income	1.45B	2.29B	1.84B	-487.00M	2.97B	1.22B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	37.28B	36.50B	32.77B	29.73B	31.39B	27.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.01B	983.00M	907.00M	1.26B	1.14B	900.00M
Total Debt	878.00M	875.00M	874.00M	891.00M	897.00M	899.00M
Total Liabilities	23.56B	22.57B	20.67B	19.17B	18.28B	16.75B
Stockholders Equity	13.72B	13.94B	12.10B	10.56B	13.11B	10.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.59B	2.63B	2.03B	2.04B	1.97B	1.47B
Operating Cash Flow	2.61B	2.65B	2.05B	2.05B	1.98B	1.49B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.40B	-1.70B	-1.61B	-933.00M	-1.06B	-560.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-816.00M	-877.00M	-801.00M	-994.00M	-685.00M	-798.00M

Cincinnati Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 146.11
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CINF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 146.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 146.74, above the 50-day MA of 145.13, and above the 200-day MA of 141.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CINF.

Cincinnati Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WRB	82 Outperform	$27.64B	16.89	20.73%	3.24%	11.39%	14.76%
MKL	73 Outperform	$25.30B	14.46	10.94%	―	-6.46%	-26.71%
CINF	71 Outperform	$23.35B	16.30	10.97%	2.33%	2.44%	-38.76%
CNA	68 Neutral	$12.58B	14.16	8.98%	3.96%	6.34%	-28.19%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$16.86B	11.64	9.71%	3.83%	11.61%	-9.60%
AFG	66 Neutral	$10.58B	13.30	18.51%	7.58%	3.76%	-9.12%
L	66 Neutral	$19.36B	15.17	7.95%	0.27%	9.02%	-9.73%

Cincinnati Financial Corporate Events

Cincinnati Financial Expands Board with New Appointment

On June 20, 2025, Cincinnati Financial Corporation announced the expansion of its board of directors by appointing Edward S. Wilkins, CPA, as an independent director and member of its audit committee. Wilkins, a retired Audit & Assurance partner with Deloitte & Touche LLP, brings over 35 years of experience in the financial services sector, particularly in audit analytics and regulatory environments. His expertise is expected to enhance the board’s capabilities in navigating complex regulations and advancing the company’s analytical capabilities, thereby creating additional value for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CINF) stock is a Buy with a $156.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cincinnati Financial stock, see the CINF Stock Forecast page.

Cincinnati Financial Releases New Investor Presentation

On May 27, 2025, Cincinnati Financial Corporation released presentation slides for investor presentations starting May 28, 2025. The slides highlight the company’s strategic focus on premium growth, investment income, and maintaining a competitive combined ratio. Despite a challenging first quarter in 2025, with a negative EPS and increased catastrophe losses, the company reported growth in net written premiums and investment income. Cincinnati Financial aims to enhance profitability through underwriting expertise, predictive modeling, and strategic investments, while expanding its market presence through new agency appointments and product offerings.

The most recent analyst rating on (CINF) stock is a Buy with a $140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cincinnati Financial stock, see the CINF Stock Forecast page.

Cincinnati Financial Holds Annual Shareholders’ Meeting

On May 3, 2025, Cincinnati Financial Corporation held its annual shareholders’ meeting where all directors were elected for one-year terms to the 13-member board. Shareholders approved the Amended and Restated Articles of Incorporation, executive compensation, and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. The board emphasized its commitment to increasing shareholder value with a diverse and skilled group of directors guiding long-term strategic plans.