Cincinnati Financial (CINF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $25.01B
• Dividend Yield: 2.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 679.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: -0.63%
• EPS Growth: -30.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,624
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 3.37
• Shares Outstanding: 155,617,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 735,760
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 679,503
• PEG Ratio: 3.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.04
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.77
• 1Y Price Target: $174.33
• Price Target Upside: 8.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $10.69B

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $183.00 ▲(13.86% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/24/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/24/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability restored, robust cash flow, and very low leverage) and supported by attractive valuation (low P/E plus a solid dividend yield). Earnings-call signals are generally positive due to disciplined pricing, improved reinsurance protection, and strong investment income, but are tempered by catastrophe exposure, personal lines weakness, and elevated reserve additions. Technicals are the main near-term drag, reflecting muted momentum and the stock trading below key short/intermediate moving averages.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet / low leverage

Exceptionally low leverage and a large equity base give durable financial flexibility. With debt/ equity near 0.056 and healthy ROE, the company can absorb underwriting volatility, support reinsurance purchases, sustain capital returns and fund growth without stressing liquidity over the next several quarters.

Strong cash generation and capital returns

Rising operating and free cash flow that tracked earnings (~$3.1B) underpins consistent dividend increases and buybacks. Reliable cash generation supports reinvestment in underwriting, reinsurance spending and shareholder returns, improving resilience through insurance cycles over 2–6 months.

Tech/AI initiatives to boost underwriting

Structured investments in AI and data architecture should raise underwriting precision and productivity over time. Improved pricing, faster access to underwriting references and analytics-driven selection can sustainably lift margins, reduce loss picks and improve renewal economics across cycles.

Negative Factors

Significant catastrophe exposure

Major catastrophe events create multi-quarter earnings volatility and can materially raise combined ratios and reserve needs. Even with enhanced reinsurance, sizable event retention and frequency risk mean capital and earnings remain exposed to large-loss variability over the medium term.

Personal lines underwriting deterioration

A combined ratio above 100% in personal lines implies sustained underwriting losses without corrective pricing or selection. Persistent weakness in homeowners and personal auto demands disciplined remediation and may pressure margins and reserve funding needs for several quarters.

Elevated reserve additions / IBNR build

Large reserve builds and substantial IBNR indicate uncertainty in claim development and actuarial assumptions. Elevated reserve additions reduce near-term earnings and signal the potential for further adverse adjustments, limiting predictability of underwriting profitability in the medium term.

Cincinnati Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cincinnati Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Commercial Lines Insurance, Personal Lines Insurance, Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance, Life Insurance, and Investments. The Commercial Lines Insurance segment offers coverage for commercial casualty, commercial property, commercial auto, and workers' compensation. It also provides director and officer liability insurance, contract and commercial surety bonds, and fidelity bonds; and machinery and equipment coverage. The Personal Lines Insurance segment offers personal auto insurance; homeowner insurance; and dwelling fire, inland marine, personal umbrella liability, and watercraft coverages to individuals. The Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance segment offers commercial casualty insurance that covers businesses for third-party liability from accidents occurring on their premises or arising out of their operations, such as injuries sustained from products; and commercial property insurance, which insures buildings, inventory, equipment, and business income from loss or damage due to various causes, such as fire, wind, hail, water, theft, and vandalism. The Life Insurance segment provides term life insurance products; universal life insurance products; worksite products, such as term life; and whole life insurance products. The Investments segment invests in fixed-maturity investments, including taxable and tax-exempt bonds, and redeemable preferred stocks; and equity investments comprising common and nonredeemable preferred stocks. The company also offers commercial leasing and financing services; and insurance brokerage services. Cincinnati Financial Corporation was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Fairfield, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Cincinnati Financial generates revenue primarily through underwriting insurance policies and collecting premiums from policyholders. Its key revenue streams include premium income from property and casualty insurance, which encompasses both commercial and personal lines, and life insurance. The company also earns investment income from its diversified investment portfolio, which includes stocks, bonds, and real estate. Additionally, Cincinnati Financial benefits from a strong network of independent agents who sell its products, enhancing its market reach and customer acquisition. The company's financial performance can be influenced by factors such as underwriting profitability, investment returns, and the overall economic environment.

Cincinnati Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals supported by sharp post-2022 revenue recovery, solid 2025 profitability (net margin ~18.9%, EBIT margin ~23.5%), robust and rising operating/free cash flow (~$3.1B), and very low leverage (2025 debt-to-equity ~0.056). The key offset is underwriting/earnings cyclicality, with a 2022 loss and profitability not back to 2021 peak levels.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded sharply after 2022, rising from $10.0B (2023) to $11.3B (2024) and $12.6B (2025), with solid profitability restored: 2025 net margin ~18.9% and EBIT margin ~23.5%. The key weakness is earnings volatility—2022 posted a loss with negative margins, and margins have moderated from the very strong 2021 levels (net margin ~30.8%), indicating results can swing meaningfully across cycles.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet looks conservatively positioned with low leverage: 2025 debt-to-equity ~0.056 (down versus prior years) and modest total debt of ~$0.9B against equity of ~$15.9B. Profitability on equity is healthy (ROE ~15.0% in 2025), though it has come down from 2021 highs and turned negative in 2022, highlighting that returns can fluctuate despite the strong capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong and improving: operating cash flow increased from ~$2.1B (2023) to ~$2.6B (2024) and ~$3.1B (2025), and free cash flow also rose to ~$3.1B in 2025 with double-digit growth (~11.0%). Free cash flow closely tracks reported earnings (about 1.0x net income), supporting earnings quality; however, the cash-flow-to-debt coverage metric is inconsistent across years (reported as 0.0 in multiple periods), which limits visibility into trend comparisons for that specific coverage measure.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.63B	11.34B	10.01B	6.56B	9.63B
Gross Profit	6.33B	5.60B	4.74B	1.54B	5.72B
EBITDA	3.03B	3.04B	2.44B	-514.00M	3.87B
Net Income	2.39B	2.29B	1.84B	-487.00M	2.97B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	41.00B	36.50B	32.77B	29.73B	31.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.43B	17.46B	14.70B	13.40B	14.16B
Total Debt	886.00M	875.00M	874.00M	891.00M	897.00M
Total Liabilities	25.09B	22.57B	20.67B	19.17B	18.28B
Stockholders Equity	15.91B	13.94B	12.10B	10.56B	13.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.11B	2.63B	2.03B	2.04B	1.97B
Operating Cash Flow	3.11B	2.65B	2.05B	2.05B	1.98B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.69B	-1.70B	-1.61B	-933.00M	-1.06B
Financing Cash Flow	-973.00M	-877.00M	-801.00M	-994.00M	-685.00M

Cincinnati Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 160.73
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CINF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 160.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 163.58, below the 50-day MA of 163.56, and above the 200-day MA of 155.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CINF.

Cincinnati Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MKL	82 Outperform	$26.07B	12.18	―	―	-6.96%	-26.28%
CINF	77 Outperform	$25.01B	10.60	16.04%	2.10%	-0.63%	-30.68%
RLI	75 Outperform	$5.62B	13.75	24.44%	4.05%	3.72%	-16.23%
CNA	71 Outperform	$12.75B	9.99	9.03%	8.03%	5.41%	-23.52%
WRB	71 Outperform	$27.22B	15.96	19.67%	1.88%	11.08%	22.01%
AFG	69 Neutral	$10.91B	12.85	―	6.71%	―	-10.75%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Cincinnati Financial Corporate Events

Cincinnati Financial boosts quarterly dividend, extends growth streak

On January 30, 2026, Cincinnati Financial Corporation’s board of directors approved an 8% increase in its regular quarterly cash dividend to 94 cents per share, up from the 87 cents per share paid on January 15, 2026, with the higher dividend scheduled to be paid on April 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 24, 2026. Management framed the move as a reflection of the company’s strong financial position and ongoing strategic execution in serving independent agents, while also extending its long-standing record of annual dividend increases to set up a potential 66th consecutive year of dividend growth, underscoring its appeal to income-focused investors and reinforcing confidence in its capital strength and cash generation.

The most recent analyst rating on (CINF) stock is a Buy with a $177.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cincinnati Financial stock, see the CINF Stock Forecast page.