Cincinnati Financial (CINF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.33B
• Dividend Yield: 2.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 550.16K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: 9.64%
• EPS Growth: -15.08%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,624
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 1.97
• Shares Outstanding: 156,376,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 430,977
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 550,159
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.97
• 1Y Price Target: $165.40
• Price Target Upside: 6.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $174.00 ▲(11.83% Upside)

Cincinnati Financial's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and attractive valuation. The company's robust earnings call results and strategic management further bolster its position. Technical indicators suggest a stable upward trend, enhancing the stock's appeal.

Positive Factors

Earnings

The 1Q25 result came in better than the forecast of an $0.89/sh loss and consensus at a $0.64/sh loss, mainly due to lower-than-expected catastrophe losses.

Premium Growth

Premium growth was well ahead of expectations with 11% net premium growth in the P&C businesses, driven by the personal lines segment delivering 13% growth.

Negative Factors

Stock Market Impact

Shares of CINF have been negatively impacted by the YTD decline in the stock market, leading to a 7% decrease in share value.

Wildfire Impact

The reinstatement premiums for the LA wildfires created a 210bps headwind in underwriting margins.

Cincinnati Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) is a publicly traded property and casualty insurance company headquartered in Fairfield, Ohio. The company operates through its subsidiaries, providing a wide range of insurance products including personal, commercial, and life insurance. Cincinnati Financial focuses on delivering comprehensive risk management solutions and has a strong presence in the Midwest and southeastern United States, with a network of independent agents who distribute its insurance products.

How the Company Makes Money

Cincinnati Financial generates revenue primarily through underwriting premiums from its insurance operations. The company earns money by collecting premiums from policyholders and then paying out claims when necessary. Its key revenue streams include personal and commercial property insurance, casualty insurance, and life insurance. Additionally, Cincinnati Financial invests the premiums it collects in various financial instruments, which generates investment income. The company also benefits from its strong relationships with independent agents, which helps drive sales and enhance customer retention. Investment gains from the company's diversified portfolio further contribute to its overall earnings.

Cincinnati Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cincinnati Financial's financial health is generally strong, supported by a solid balance sheet with low leverage and robust cash flow metrics. However, challenges exist in sustaining revenue growth and profitability, as reflected in declining margins and revenue.

Income Statement

Cincinnati Financial exhibits a moderate performance with a current TTM gross profit margin of 100% due to zero cost structure in the insurance sector. The net profit margin for the TTM is 13.2%, lower than the previous annual period of 20.2%, indicating margin compression. Revenue has decreased by 3.25% in the TTM compared to the last annual report, showing challenges in revenue growth. The EBIT margin in the TTM stands at 17.5%, down from 25.2% annually, suggesting pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Cincinnati Financial maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.062 in the TTM, reflecting prudent leverage management. The equity ratio has improved to 36.8%, indicating a solid capital structure. Return on equity has seen a decline to 10.5% in the TTM from 16.4%, highlighting reduced profitability relative to shareholder equity.

Cash Flow

The company's cash flow generation is robust, with a stable operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.8 in the TTM. Free cash flow growth rate shows a slight decline of 2.19%, yet free cash flow remains strong at $2.59 billion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 1.79, indicating effective cash conversion from net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.67B	11.34B	10.01B	6.56B	9.63B	7.54B
Gross Profit	8.04B	11.34B	10.01B	6.56B	9.63B	7.54B
EBITDA	2.45B	3.04B	2.44B	-514.00M	3.87B	0.00
Net Income	1.82B	2.29B	1.84B	-487.00M	2.97B	1.22B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	38.84B	36.50B	32.77B	29.73B	31.39B	27.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	995.00M	983.00M	907.00M	1.26B	1.14B	900.00M
Total Debt	859.00M	875.00M	874.00M	891.00M	897.00M	899.00M
Total Liabilities	24.54B	22.57B	20.67B	19.17B	18.28B	16.75B
Stockholders Equity	14.30B	13.94B	12.10B	10.56B	13.11B	10.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.59B	2.63B	2.03B	2.04B	1.97B	1.47B
Operating Cash Flow	2.60B	2.65B	2.05B	2.05B	1.98B	1.49B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.57B	-1.70B	-1.61B	-933.00M	-1.06B	-560.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-811.00M	-877.00M	-801.00M	-994.00M	-685.00M	-798.00M

Cincinnati Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 155.59
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CINF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 155.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 152.81, above the 50-day MA of 150.14, and above the 200-day MA of 144.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CINF.

Cincinnati Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WRB	83 Outperform	$27.30B	16.38	20.63%	2.17%	11.41%	15.32%
CINF	78 Outperform	$24.33B	13.32	13.44%	2.16%	9.64%	-15.08%
RLI	76 Outperform	$6.22B	19.21	19.49%	3.86%	10.29%	-4.70%
AFG	73 Outperform	$11.41B	15.02	17.17%	6.59%	3.35%	-14.16%
MKL	73 Outperform	$24.77B	11.74	13.23%	―	1.66%	8.51%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.05B	11.73	10.24%	3.73%	9.66%	1.70%
CNA	68 Neutral	$13.26B	15.22	8.54%	7.81%	6.12%	-31.43%

Cincinnati Financial Corporate Events

Cincinnati Financial Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On August 22, 2025, Cincinnati Financial Corporation announced that its board of directors declared an 87 cents-per-share regular quarterly cash dividend, payable on October 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 22, 2025. This announcement highlights the company’s strong capital position and its commitment to generating shareholder value, marking 65 consecutive years of increasing annual cash dividends, a milestone achieved by only a few public companies in the U.S.

Cincinnati Financial Releases Investor Presentation Slides

On August 11, 2025, Cincinnati Financial Corporation released presentation slides for investor presentations starting August 12, 2025. The company reported a 4.6% Value Creation Ratio (VCR) for the first half of 2025, which is below its target range of 10% to 13%. Despite this, the company achieved significant growth in property casualty net written premiums and investment income. The second quarter of 2025 saw an increase in earnings per share and non-GAAP operating income, driven by higher renewal pricing and improved underwriting performance. The company continues to focus on premium growth, underwriting expertise, and strategic investments to enhance profitability and shareholder value.

Cincinnati Financial Expands Board with New Appointment

On June 20, 2025, Cincinnati Financial Corporation announced the expansion of its board of directors by appointing Edward S. Wilkins, CPA, as an independent director and member of its audit committee. Wilkins, a retired Audit & Assurance partner with Deloitte & Touche LLP, brings over 35 years of experience in the financial services sector, particularly in audit analytics and regulatory environments. His expertise is expected to enhance the board’s capabilities in navigating complex regulations and advancing the company’s analytical capabilities, thereby creating additional value for shareholders.

Cincinnati Financial Releases New Investor Presentation

On May 27, 2025, Cincinnati Financial Corporation released presentation slides for investor presentations starting May 28, 2025. The slides highlight the company’s strategic focus on premium growth, investment income, and maintaining a competitive combined ratio. Despite a challenging first quarter in 2025, with a negative EPS and increased catastrophe losses, the company reported growth in net written premiums and investment income. Cincinnati Financial aims to enhance profitability through underwriting expertise, predictive modeling, and strategic investments, while expanding its market presence through new agency appointments and product offerings.