Cincinnati Financial (CINF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $23.61B
• Dividend Yield: 2.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 549.78K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: 2.44%
• EPS Growth: -38.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,624
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 79
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): -0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 156,303,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 476,960
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 549,783
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.49
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.69
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.37
• 1Y Price Target: $153.80
• Price Target Upside: 4.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $165.00 ▲(12.21%Upside)

Cincinnati Financial's overall stock score reflects its solid financial foundation, characterized by a strong balance sheet and effective cash flow management. Technical indicators show stable market momentum, and valuation metrics suggest the stock is fairly priced with potential for income generation through dividends. The strategic initiatives highlighted in recent corporate events further bolster future growth prospects.

Positive Factors

Earnings

The 1Q25 result came in better than the forecast of an $0.89/sh loss and consensus at a $0.64/sh loss, mainly due to lower-than-expected catastrophe losses.

Valuation

CINF's valuation now screens as relatively inexpensive with a P/E ratio of ~11x, indicating potential for future growth.

Negative Factors

Stock Market Performance

Shares of CINF have been negatively impacted by the YTD decline in the stock market, leading to a 7% decrease in share value.

Wildfire Impact

The California Wildfire exposure led to a significant estimated loss for CINF, affecting their 2025 EPS estimate.

Cincinnati Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cincinnati Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Commercial Lines Insurance, Personal Lines Insurance, Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance, Life Insurance, and Investments. The Commercial Lines Insurance segment offers coverage for commercial casualty, commercial property, commercial auto, and workers' compensation. It also provides director and officer liability insurance, contract and commercial surety bonds, and fidelity bonds; and machinery and equipment coverage. The Personal Lines Insurance segment offers personal auto insurance; homeowner insurance; and dwelling fire, inland marine, personal umbrella liability, and watercraft coverages to individuals. The Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance segment offers commercial casualty insurance that covers businesses for third-party liability from accidents occurring on their premises or arising out of their operations, such as injuries sustained from products; and commercial property insurance, which insures buildings, inventory, equipment, and business income from loss or damage due to various causes, such as fire, wind, hail, water, theft, and vandalism. The Life Insurance segment provides term life insurance products; universal life insurance products; worksite products, such as term life; and whole life insurance products. The Investments segment invests in fixed-maturity investments, including taxable and tax-exempt bonds, and redeemable preferred stocks; and equity investments comprising common and nonredeemable preferred stocks. The company also offers commercial leasing and financing services; and insurance brokerage services. Cincinnati Financial Corporation was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Fairfield, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Cincinnati Financial makes money primarily through the underwriting of insurance policies and investment income. The company's revenue streams include premiums collected from policyholders in exchange for coverage against various risks. The underwriting process involves assessing risks, determining appropriate pricing, and issuing policies that align with the company's risk management strategies. Additionally, Cincinnati Financial generates income from its investment portfolio, which consists of bonds, stocks, and other financial instruments. The company strategically invests the premiums it collects to earn returns that contribute significantly to its profitability. Partnerships with independent insurance agencies play a crucial role in distributing Cincinnati Financial's products and expanding its market reach, thereby enhancing revenue generation.

Cincinnati Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cincinnati Financial shows solid financial health with a strong balance sheet and robust cash flow metrics. The low debt-to-equity ratio and strong cash flow conversion are notable strengths. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability, evidenced by declining margins and revenue, are areas for improvement.

Income Statement

Cincinnati Financial exhibits a moderate performance with a current TTM gross profit margin of 100% due to zero cost structure in the insurance sector. The net profit margin for the TTM is 13.2%, lower than the previous annual period of 20.2%, indicating margin compression. Revenue has decreased by 3.25% in the TTM compared to the last annual report, showing challenges in revenue growth. The EBIT margin in the TTM stands at 17.5%, down from 25.2% annually, suggesting pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Cincinnati Financial maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.062 in the TTM, reflecting prudent leverage management. The equity ratio has improved to 36.8%, indicating a solid capital structure. Return on equity has seen a decline to 10.5% in the TTM from 16.4%, highlighting reduced profitability relative to shareholder equity.

Cash Flow

The company's cash flow generation is robust, with a stable operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.8 in the TTM. Free cash flow growth rate shows a slight decline of 2.19%, yet free cash flow remains strong at $2.59 billion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 1.79, indicating effective cash conversion from net income.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
10.97B	11.34B	10.01B	6.56B	9.63B	7.54B
	Gross Profit
10.97B	11.34B	10.01B	6.56B	9.63B	7.54B
	EBIT
1.79B	2.91B	2.33B	-641.00M	3.72B	1.55B
	EBITDA
1.97B	2.91B	2.44B	-514.00M	3.82B	0.00
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.45B	2.29B	1.84B	-487.00M	2.97B	1.22B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
767.00M	983.00M	907.00M	1.26B	1.14B	900.00M
	Total Assets
25.41B	36.50B	32.77B	29.73B	31.39B	27.54B
	Total Debt
885.00M	875.00M	874.00M	891.00M	897.00M	899.00M
	Net Debt
118.00M	-108.00M	-33.00M	-373.00M	-242.00M	-1.00M
	Total Liabilities
15.54B	22.57B	20.67B	19.17B	18.28B	16.75B
	Stockholders Equity
9.86B	13.94B	12.10B	10.56B	13.11B	10.79B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
2.59B	2.63B	2.03B	2.04B	1.97B	1.47B
	Operating Cash Flow
2.61B	2.65B	2.05B	2.05B	1.98B	1.49B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.40B	-1.70B	-1.61B	-933.00M	-1.06B	-560.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-816.00M	-877.00M	-801.00M	-994.00M	-685.00M	-798.00M

Cincinnati Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 147.05
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CINF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 147.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 149.08, above the 50-day MA of 142.47, and above the 200-day MA of 141.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CINF.

Cincinnati Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WRB	82 Outperform	$28.16B	17.21	20.73%	0.44%	11.39%	14.76%
MKL	73 Outperform	$24.91B	14.32	10.94%	―	-6.46%	-26.71%
CINF	73 Outperform	$23.61B	16.48	10.97%	2.21%	2.44%	-38.76%
CNA	70 Outperform	$12.36B	13.92	8.98%	3.87%	6.34%	-28.19%
AFG	66 Neutral	$10.34B	13.01	18.51%	2.50%	3.76%	-9.12%
L	66 Neutral	$18.69B	14.64	7.95%	0.28%	9.02%	-9.73%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.83B	9.78	7.78%	16985.64%	12.26%	-7.81%

Cincinnati Financial Corporate Events

Cincinnati Financial Releases New Investor Presentation

On May 27, 2025, Cincinnati Financial Corporation released presentation slides for investor presentations starting May 28, 2025. The slides highlight the company’s strategic focus on premium growth, investment income, and maintaining a competitive combined ratio. Despite a challenging first quarter in 2025, with a negative EPS and increased catastrophe losses, the company reported growth in net written premiums and investment income. Cincinnati Financial aims to enhance profitability through underwriting expertise, predictive modeling, and strategic investments, while expanding its market presence through new agency appointments and product offerings.

The most recent analyst rating on (CINF) stock is a Buy with a $140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cincinnati Financial stock, see the CINF Stock Forecast page.

Cincinnati Financial Holds Annual Shareholders’ Meeting

On May 3, 2025, Cincinnati Financial Corporation held its annual shareholders’ meeting where all directors were elected for one-year terms to the 13-member board. Shareholders approved the Amended and Restated Articles of Incorporation, executive compensation, and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. The board emphasized its commitment to increasing shareholder value with a diverse and skilled group of directors guiding long-term strategic plans.