Markel (MKL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $26.07B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 44.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: -6.96%
• EPS Growth: -26.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 22,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 33.17
• Shares Outstanding: 12,610,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 37,404
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 44,755
• PEG Ratio: -0.86
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.65
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.50
• 1Y Price Target: $2,100.00
• Price Target Upside: 1.71% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 114.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $17.97B

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $2,312.00 ▲(11.98% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

MKL scores well primarily on financial strength (solid profitability, strong and consistent cash generation, and a well-capitalized/low-leverage balance sheet) and a supportive earnings outlook focused on improving underwriting returns. Valuation is also favorable with a P/E near 12. Technicals are the main drag, with mixed trend signals and slightly negative momentum.

Positive Factors

Consistent Cash Generation

Markel's sustained operating cash flow and robust free cash flow provide a durable liquidity cushion that supports underwriting volatility, reserve strength, and disciplined capital allocation. Persistent cash generation funds buybacks, preferred redemption, bolt-on deals and reinvestment without relying on external financing, improving long-term financial flexibility and enabling management to execute multi-year underwriting improvement plans.

Well‑Capitalized, Low Leverage Balance Sheet

A strong capital base and sharply reduced leverage give Markel structural capacity to absorb underwriting or investment shocks and maintain conservative reserving. This balance sheet strength supports multi-year strategic moves (business exits, fronting changes) while preserving capacity for disciplined capital returns and opportunistic investments, reducing long-term solvency and financing risk.

Underwriting Improvement & Strategic Simplification

Management's deliberate portfolio simplification—exiting Global Reinsurance, converting Hagerty to a fronting model and shedding underperforming books—is aimed at structurally improving combined ratios and ROE. These choices sacrifice near-term premium volume for higher long-run underwriting margins and clearer risk cohorts, positioning underwriting returns to be more predictable and durable over successive cycles.

Negative Factors

Earnings & Margin Volatility

Markel's earnings demonstrate material cyclicality from underwriting outcomes and investment swings; the 2022 loss and recent margin step‑downs show downside sensitivity. Persistent volatility complicates multi-period forecasting, can impair capital returns during downturns, and forces conservative reserving or capital retention that constrains ROE in volatile years.

Discrete Surety & Program Losses

Large, discrete losses in surety and adverse program trends create tail risk concentrated in specific products. Elevated reserves and a >100% combined ratio in these books point to potential for recurring volatility and the need for higher pricing or tightened underwriting standards, which can weigh on segment earnings and delay group-level combined ratio improvement.

Softening Rate Environment & Competitive Pressure

Widespread rate softening and heightened competition are structural headwinds for premium growth and underwriting leverage. Even with portfolio exits, persistently lower pricing in core lines limits the firm's ability to restore margin through price alone, forcing reliance on tighter underwriting, product mix shifts, or expense efficiency—measures that take time to fully offset revenue and margin compression.

Markel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Markel Corporation, a diverse financial holding company, markets and underwrites specialty insurance products in the United States, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, Canada, the Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. Its Insurance segment offers general and professional liability, personal lines, marine and energy, specialty programs, and workers' compensation insurance products; and property coverages that include fire, allied lines, and other specialized property coverages, including catastrophe-exposed property risks, such as earthquake and wind. This segment also offers credit and surety products, and collateral protection insurance products. The company's Reinsurance segment offers transaction, healthcare, and environmental impairment liability; and specialty treaty reinsurance products comprising structured and whole turnover credit, political risk, mortgage and contract, and commercial surety reinsurance programs. Its Markel Ventures segment provides equipment used in baking systems and food processing; portable dredges; over-the-road car haulers and transportation equipment; and laminated oak and composite wood flooring, tube and tank trailers, as well as ornamental plants and residential homes, handbags, and architectural products. This segment also provides consulting, and other types of services to businesses and consumers, including distribution of exterior building products, crane rental, fire protection, and life safety services, management and technology consulting, and retail intelligence services. The company's Other segment provides healthcare, leasing and investment services, as well as operates as an insurance and investment fund manager offering a range of investment products, including insurance-linked securities, catastrophe bonds, insurance swaps, and weather derivatives; and program services. it also manages funds with third parties. Markel Corporation was founded in 1930 and is based in Glen Allen, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Markel generates revenue primarily through its insurance operations, which include underwriting premiums collected from policyholders in various sectors, such as liability, workers' compensation, and property insurance. The company also earns investment income by managing a diversified portfolio of investments, including fixed-income securities, equities, and alternative investments, using the funds accumulated from insurance premiums before claims are paid out. Key revenue streams include underwriting profit, which arises when premiums exceed claims and expenses, and investment income, which is derived from the returns on its invested assets. Additionally, Markel has established significant partnerships with various brokers and agents, enhancing its distribution capabilities and market reach, further contributing to its earnings potential.

Markel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals: long-term revenue expansion (2020 ~$9.6B to 2025 ~$16.6B), solid 2025 profitability (net margin ~12.7%), consistently positive operating cash flow (~$1.7B–$2.8B) and robust free cash flow (~$1.6B–$2.6B). Balance sheet is well-capitalized with rising equity (~$18.6B in 2025) and very low leverage (debt shown as $0 in 2025). Main risk is earnings/margin volatility across the cycle (including a 2022 loss and margin step-down from 2024 to 2025).

Income Statement

Revenue has grown meaningfully over the long run (from ~$9.6B in 2020 to ~$16.6B in 2025), though growth has cooled recently and was nearly flat in 2024–2025. Profitability is solid in the latest year (2025 net margin ~12.7% with healthy operating profitability), but results have been volatile across the cycle, highlighted by a loss in 2022 and a step-down in margins from 2024 to 2025. Overall, strong earnings power with periodic swings typical of the business.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows strengthening capital over time, with equity rising to ~$18.6B by 2025. Leverage appears conservative: debt-to-equity was moderate in 2020–2024 (~0.25–0.33) and total debt is shown as $0 in 2025, indicating a sharply reduced leverage profile in the latest period. Returns on equity have generally been healthy in profitable years (low-teens to mid-teens), though the 2022 loss demonstrates that underwriting/investment volatility can pressure capital in weaker periods.

Cash Flow

Cash generation looks consistently strong: operating cash flow has been positive each year (~$1.7B–$2.8B) and free cash flow is robust (~$1.6B–$2.6B). Free cash flow generally tracks net income closely (about 0.90–0.94x in most years; ~0.93x in 2025), supporting earnings quality. The main weakness is variability in free cash flow growth (notably a decline in 2024 before rebounding in 2025), suggesting some year-to-year lumpiness.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.59B	16.75B	15.71B	11.81B	12.92B
Gross Profit	11.51B	9.27B	8.08B	3.41B	5.89B
EBITDA	2.94B	4.18B	3.16B	353.94M	3.65B
Net Income	2.11B	2.75B	2.00B	-216.28M	2.42B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	68.91B	47.35B	43.44B	39.28B	39.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.40B	4.19B	4.33B	5.22B	4.88B
Total Debt	0.00	5.65B	4.97B	4.10B	5.50B
Total Liabilities	-18.60B	29.88B	27.92B	25.54B	24.18B
Stockholders Equity	18.60B	16.92B	14.98B	13.15B	14.72B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.55B	2.34B	2.53B	2.45B	2.13B
Operating Cash Flow	2.76B	2.59B	2.79B	2.71B	2.27B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.19B	-2.40B	-2.70B	-1.67B	-2.94B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.21B	-297.88M	-999.72M	-595.31M	369.77M

Markel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2064.65
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MKL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2064.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2066.68, below the 50-day MA of 2101.61, and above the 200-day MA of 1998.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MKL.

Markel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CINF	77 Outperform	$25.01B	10.59	16.04%	2.10%	-0.63%	-30.68%
MKL	74 Outperform	$26.07B	12.23	―	―	-6.96%	-26.28%
AFG	74 Outperform	$10.91B	12.98	18.13%	6.71%	―	-10.75%
CNA	71 Outperform	$12.75B	10.04	9.03%	8.03%	5.41%	-23.52%
WRB	71 Outperform	$27.22B	16.10	19.67%	1.88%	11.08%	22.01%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
L	59 Neutral	$22.53B	13.71	9.33%	0.23%	6.06%	-8.53%

Markel Corporate Events

Markel Highlights Strong 2025 Results in Shareholder Letter

On February 26, 2026, Markel Group posted its 2025 Letter to Shareholders, highlighting a strong year in which operating revenues reached $15.5 billion and operating income came in at $3.2 billion, with a combined ratio of 94% and invested assets of $37.4 billion. The company reported 12% growth in intrinsic value per share in 2025, a five-year compound annual growth rate of 15%, and long-term stock performance that management says places Markel among the top tier of public companies, reinforcing its culture-driven model and positioning as a long-term “home” for customers, employees, and shareholders.

The letter underscores that Markel’s culture, articulated as the “Markel Style,” is central to its competitive advantage and long-run financial compounding, linking disciplined underwriting and diversified operating businesses to durable shareholder equity growth, which rose to $18.6 billion at year-end 2025. Management frames the company’s consistent value creation over its 39 years as a public firm as evidence that its qualitative focus on community, meaning for employees, and fair-dealing with customers translates into tangible financial outcomes and an enduring sense of attachment for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MKL) stock is a Hold with a $2100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Markel stock, see the MKL Stock Forecast page.