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Amgen (AMGN)
NASDAQ:AMGN
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Amgen
(NASDAQ:AMGN)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$405.00
▲(6.77% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/05/26
AMGN scores positively overall, led by strong technical strength and supportive earnings-call outlook with defined 2026 guidance and broad product momentum. The main constraint is financial risk from high leverage and a recent decline in free cash flow, while valuation is reasonable but not cheap given the ~23.8 P/E, partially offset by a ~2.6% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation & margins
Sustained high gross and net margins plus ~$10B operating cash flow and ~$8.1B FCF provide durable funding for R&D, manufacturing scale, dividends and buybacks. These cash flows support reinvestment and optionality across cycles, underpinning long‑term competitiveness.
Diversified blockbuster portfolio
A broad set of blockbuster drugs and multiple double-digit growers reduces dependence on any single SKU and smooths revenue volatility. Multi-franchise scale and geographic reach create durable commercial resilience versus isolated product shocks or single-market dynamics.
Heavy R&D spend & late‑stage pipeline
Elevated R&D investment and multiple Phase III/pivotal programs (Meritide, OCEAN‑A/opasiran progress, bispecific platform) build a sustained innovation runway. This increases long-term growth optionality and potential future commercial launches, supporting durable pipeline-driven revenues.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Material leverage reduces financial flexibility for M&A, large capex or sustained buybacks, and raises vulnerability to interest rate or credit stresses. Elevated debt magnifies downside risk from any revenue or cash‑flow shocks and can constrain strategic optionality over months.
Declining free cash flow
A roughly 30% drop in FCF year-over-year weakens internal funding for R&D, capex and shareholder returns unless offset. Persistent FCF contraction would force tougher allocation choices, limiting reinvestment or requiring external financing, heightening medium‑term risk.
Commercial pressure from biosimilars
Structural erosion from biosimilars/generics across key franchises can permanently reduce baseline revenues and margins. Sustained market share loss and pricing pressure in core products necessitate faster replacement by new launches, increasing execution risk and compressing long‑term cash flow.
Amgen (AMGN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$206.39B
Dividend Yield3%
Average Volume (3M)2.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.9
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth11.03%
EPS Growth65.22%
CountryUS
Employees28,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - General
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.29
Shares Outstanding539,067,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,334,783
30 Day Avg. Volume2,816,179
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)20.34
Price to Sales (P/S)4.79
P/FCF Ratio21.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.23
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$368.00Price Target Upside-2.99% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering25
EPS Forecast (FY)22.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$37.80B
Amgen Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAmgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. It focuses on inflammation, oncology/hematology, bone health, cardiovascular disease, nephrology, and neuroscience areas. The company's products include Enbrel to treat plaque psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and psoriatic arthritis; Neulasta that reduces the chance of infection due a low white blood cell count in patients cancer; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; Xgeva for skeletal-related events prevention; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; Aranesp to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia; KYPROLIS to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; and Repatha, which reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization. It also markets Nplate, Vectibix, MVASI, Parsabiv, EPOGEN, KANJINTI, BLINCYTO, Aimovig, EVENITY, AMGEVITATM, Sensipar/Mimpara, NEUPOGEN, IMLYGIC, Corlanor, and AVSOLA. Amgen Inc. serves healthcare providers, including physicians or their clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies. It distributes its products through pharmaceutical wholesale distributors, as well as direct-to-consumer channels. It has collaboration agreements with Novartis Pharma AG; UCB; Bayer HealthCare LLC; BeiGene, Ltd.; Eli Lilly and Company; Datos Health; and Verastem, Inc. to evaluate VS-6766 in combination with lumakrastm (Sotorasib) in patients with KRAS G12C-mutant non-small cell lung cancer. It has an agreement with Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. to jointly develop and commercialize KHK4083, a Phase 3-ready anti-OX40 fully human monoclonal antibody for the treatment of atopic dermatitis and other autoimmune diseases; and research and development collaboration with Neumora Therapeutics, Inc. and Plexium, Inc. Amgen Inc. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmgen generates revenue primarily through the sale of its biologic drugs, which are often administered for chronic and life-threatening conditions. The company's revenue model is largely driven by product sales, which encompass both domestic and international markets. Key revenue streams include direct sales of its leading therapies, royalties from partnerships, and licensing agreements for its drug development programs. Significant partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies and collaborations with academic institutions also play a crucial role in its revenue generation, allowing Amgen to expand its product pipeline and enter new therapeutic areas. Overall, the company's strong focus on research and development, combined with an established portfolio of blockbuster drugs, underpins its financial performance.
Amgen Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Distinguishes between different revenue streams, such as product sales and royalties, providing insights into Amgen's business model and diversification.
Distinguishes between different revenue streams, such as product sales and royalties, providing insights into Amgen's business model and diversification.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmgen Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized broad, multi-product commercial momentum, strong financial performance, substantial R&D investment, and encouraging late-stage pipeline progress (notably Repatha, Meritide, biosimilars, rare disease approvals, and Imdeltra). Key challenges include a significant regulatory action on Tavneos, slower-than-expected event accrual for the olpasiran outcome study, several program deprioritizations, and anticipated near-term sales pressure from biosimilars/generics and seasonal/inventory headwinds. On balance, the positives — sustained growth across multiple franchises, clear 2026 guidance range, and a deep late-stage pipeline — outweigh the notable but addressable setbacks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Broad Commercial Momentum and Product Breadth
14 products achieved blockbuster status ($1B+), 13 products delivered double-digit sales growth, and 18 products posted record results in 2025, underpinning double-digit revenue and EPS growth for the year.
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance and Guidance
Reported 10% sales growth for 2025, non-GAAP operating margin of 46% for the full year, $8.1B in free cash flow, $6B of debt retired, and 2026 revenue guidance of $37.0B–$38.4B with non-GAAP EPS guidance of $21.60–$23.00.
Repatha — Major Growth Driver
Repatha sales grew 36% year-over-year in 2025 to surpass $3 billion; supported by Vesalius CV Phase III results showing a 25% relative risk reduction for first major CV events and a 36% reduction in heart attack, strengthening positioning in primary and secondary prevention.
Evenity and Bone Franchise Strength
Evenity sales increased 34% in 2025 to $2.1 billion (U.S. +41% driven by volume), holding >60% market share in the bone builder segment and showing a 33% increase in new U.S. patients year-over-year.
Rare Disease and New Approvals
Rare disease portfolio generated more than $5 billion in 2025 and grew ~14% year-over-year (nearly $5.2B); Uplisna/Aplisna (transcript: Uplisna/Eplisna/Vuplisna) received approvals in IgG4-related disease and generalized myasthenia gravis in 2025, with Eplisna sales up 73% to $655M.
Respiratory and Immunology Growth — TestSpire/Taspire/TESSPIRE
TestSpire sales grew ~52% year-over-year to nearly $1.5B for the full year, positioning it as a leading therapy in severe uncontrolled asthma and expanding across respiratory specialties.
Oncology Progress and New Standards of Care
IMDELTRA (Imdeltra) received full FDA approval and became standard of care in second-line small cell lung cancer; Imdeltra generated $627M in full-year sales. BLINCYTO grew 28% to over $1.5B, and the bispecific T-cell engager platform continues to advance through late-stage programs.
Biosimilars Contribution and Momentum
Biosimilars delivered $3.0B in 2025 (37% growth year-over-year) and have contributed more than $13B in cumulative sales since 2018; PAV Blue (biosimilar to EYLEA) reached $700M in 2025.
Increased R&D Investment and Robust Pipeline
Non-GAAP R&D spending rose 22% to a record $7.2B in 2025, with multiple late-stage programs advancing (six global Phase III trials for Meritide, opasiran OCEAN-A outcome study ongoing, positive Phase II data for daxdilimab, and multiple planned pivotal starts).
Capital Return and Investment
Q4 dividend of $2.38 per share (6% increase vs. 2024), $2.2B capex in 2025 with $2.6B expected in 2026 to scale manufacturing and prepare for Meritide, and disciplined balance sheet actions (debt retirement).
Negative Updates
Regulatory Setback — Tavneos (Tabnios) Voluntary Withdrawal Request
The FDA requested a voluntary withdrawal of TABNIO/Tavneos (ANCA-associated vasculitis medicine) over concerns related to readjudication of endpoints for nine patients; Amgen is engaged in discussions with FDA and the situation is unresolved.
Clinical Trial Timing Risk — Olpasiran (opasiran) OCEAN-A
The fully enrolled OCEAN-A outcome study is event-driven but the aggregate endpoint accrual rate is lower than initial predictions, delaying the primary analysis date and introducing timing uncertainty for an important cardiovascular asset.
Portfolio Prioritization and Program Terminations
Decisions to terminate or deprioritize programs were announced: the rocotinlimab collaboration was terminated (returned to partner) and Amgen elected not to pursue regulatory approval for bimirtuzumab after FORTITUDE trial results failed to meet expectations.
Expected Commercial Pressures from Biosimilars and Generics
Management expects accelerated sales erosion for Prolia in 2026 due to increased biosimilar competition, and anticipates sales pressure for Otezla (pricing pressure and generics, particularly in the EU); denosumab biosimilar competition expected in Q1.
Near-Term Seasonal and Inventory Headwinds
Company noted a typical seasonal headwind in Q1 tied to U.S. health insurance cycles (benefit changes, reverifications, higher copays) and disclosed roughly $250M of inventory build in 2025 that could negatively impact Q1 sales; full-company Q1 growth expected to be lower mid-single-digits year-over-year.
Clinical Development Uncertainties and Readouts
While multiple late-stage programs are in progress (e.g., Meritide, Meritide CV/diabetes studies), several program timelines and designs remain to be finalized (e.g., type 2 diabetes CVOT control arm), adding uncertainty to future milestone timing and potential launch schedules.
Company Guidance
Amgen guided 2026 total revenues of $37.0–$38.4 billion and non‑GAAP EPS of $21.60–$23.00, with full‑year non‑GAAP operating margin targeted at roughly 45%–46% of product sales; other revenue of $1.6–$1.8 billion; non‑GAAP other income/(expense) of about $2.3–$2.4 billion; a non‑GAAP tax rate of 16%–17.5%; capex around $2.6 billion; share repurchases not to exceed $3 billion; and non‑GAAP R&D expense expected to grow low single digits (excluding roughly $300 million of 2025 BD‑related spend). Management expects a lower mid‑single‑digit year‑over‑year revenue decline in Q1 (citing seasonal insurance/reverification headwinds and a ~ $250 million inventory build) with Q1 operating margin the lowest of the year (roughly in line with 2025), and said growth from six priority drivers (Repatha, Evenity, Tespire, rare disease, innovative oncology and biosimilars) should more than offset anticipated declines from biosimilar competition, pricing pressure and higher 340B utilization.Amgen Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability and cash generation (TTM gross margin ~66%, net margin ~19%, operating cash flow ~$10.0B, free cash flow ~$8.1B) support a solid core profile. Offsetting this, the balance sheet is meaningfully leveraged (TTM debt-to-equity ~5.7x) and free cash flow is down ~30% versus the prior period, reducing flexibility despite improving operating cash flow.Income Statement
AMGN shows solid top-line momentum, with revenue up ~2.2x in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus 2024, while profitability remains strong for the industry (TTM gross margin ~66% and net margin ~19%). However, margins have compressed versus the 2020–2023 range (net margin peaked ~24–29% historically), and net income has been volatile (down in 2024 before rebounding in TTM), indicating earnings power is strong but not consistently improving.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is the key weakness: total debt remains very large and debt relative to equity is elevated (TTM debt-to-equity ~5.7x; ~10x in 2022–2024), which reduces financial flexibility. Equity is relatively thin versus the asset base, and the company’s high returns on equity are materially influenced by that leverage rather than purely operating strength. The balance sheet has improved from 2024 (lower debt and higher equity), but it is still highly levered.44
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is healthy with TTM operating cash flow of ~$10.0B and free cash flow of ~$8.1B, and free cash flow tracks net income well (TTM free cash flow at ~88% of net income), supporting earnings quality. The main concern is the sharp TTM decline in free cash flow (down ~30% vs. the prior period), even as operating cash flow improved versus 2023—suggesting higher cash uses (e.g., capex/working capital/timing effects) that could pressure near-term flexibility.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 36.74B | 33.42B | 28.19B | 26.32B | 25.98B |
| Gross Profit | 26.01B | 20.57B | 19.77B | 19.92B | 19.52B |
| EBITDA | 15.84B | 13.36B | 14.80B | 12.17B | 11.30B |
| Net Income | 7.71B | 4.09B | 6.72B | 6.55B | 5.89B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 90.59B | 91.84B | 97.15B | 65.12B | 61.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.13B | 11.97B | 10.94B | 9.30B | 8.04B |
| Total Debt | 54.60B | 60.10B | 64.61B | 38.95B | 33.31B |
| Total Liabilities | 81.93B | 85.96B | 90.92B | 61.46B | 54.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.66B | 5.88B | 6.23B | 3.66B | 6.70B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.10B | 10.39B | 7.36B | 8.79B | 8.38B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.96B | 11.49B | 8.47B | 9.72B | 9.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.94B | -1.05B | -26.20B | -6.04B | 733.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -10.86B | -9.41B | 21.05B | -4.04B | -8.27B |
Amgen Technical Analysis
Positive
379.33
Price Trends
344.66
Positive
328.09
Positive
304.90
Positive
Market Momentum
11.12
Negative
63.28
Neutral
84.87
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 379.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 366.55, above the 50-day MA of 344.66, and above the 200-day MA of 304.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.87 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMGN.
Amgen Risk Analysis
Amgen disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Amgen reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Amgen Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $307.60B | 17.02 | 36.91% | 3.12% | 1.59% | 58.02% | |
74 Outperform | $183.17B | 21.77 | 40.49% | 2.52% | 2.76% | 6407.19% | |
71 Outperform | $206.39B | 26.91 | 106.10% | 3.00% | 11.03% | 65.22% | |
71 Outperform | $125.45B | 17.81 | 40.53% | 4.84% | 1.26% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $115.48B | 19.66 | 6.76% | 4.58% | -9.32% | 120.62% | |
64 Neutral | $154.31B | 19.96 | ― | 6.65% | 4.44% | 128.96% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AMGN
Amgen
379.33
80.64
27.00%
BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb
61.10
4.35
7.67%
GILD
Gilead Sciences
143.77
32.57
29.29%
MRK
Merck & Company
119.30
30.39
34.18%
PFE
Pfizer
27.10
2.46
9.98%
SNY
Sanofi
48.35
-4.44
-8.41%
Amgen Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Amgen Ends Kyowa Kirin Collaboration in Strategic Shift
Neutral
Jan 30, 2026
On January 30, 2026, Amgen Inc. and Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. agreed to terminate their June 1, 2021 License and Collaboration Agreement under a newly executed Termination Agreement, with the termination to take effect upon receipt of regulatory approval. The move effectively ends the companies’ prior licensing and co-development partnership, signaling a strategic shift in how Amgen will manage and pursue the assets or territories previously governed by the collaboration, with potential implications for its pipeline structure and partnering strategy once the termination becomes fully effective.
The most recent analyst rating on (AMGN) stock is a Buy with a $400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Amgen stock, see the AMGN Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.