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Pfizer Inc (PFE)
NYSE:PFE

Pfizer (PFE) AI Stock Analysis

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PFE

Pfizer

(NYSE:PFE)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(12.57% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/03/26
The score is driven primarily by solid—but not accelerating—financial performance (strong margins but declining revenue and weaker free-cash-flow trend). Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages and positive MACD. Valuation is helped by a reasonable P/E and high dividend yield. Earnings call factors are constructive on guidance and productivity, but tempered by COVID decline, LOE headwinds, and impairment-related volatility.
Positive Factors
Margin and operational efficiency
High gross margin and sustained operating margins reflect durable manufacturing and pricing advantages across key products. This margin headroom supports funding of R&D, acquisitions, and dividends while absorbing product mix shifts, enhancing long-term resilience despite revenue cyclicality.
Obesity pipeline progress
Positive Phase 2b PF‑3944 data and planned pivotal programs signal a structurally attractive entry into the high-growth obesity market. Monthly dosing differentiation and advancing Phase 3 plans can produce a multi-year revenue stream and diversify Pfizer’s portfolio beyond legacy franchises.
Capital allocation and reinvestment
Consistent large-scale dividends combined with substantial R&D and business-development spending shows disciplined capital allocation. This balance sustains shareholder returns while fueling pipeline expansion and inorganic growth, supporting medium-term earnings durability and strategic positioning.
Negative Factors
Free cash flow deterioration
A marked decline in free cash flow growth and weakened cash conversion reduce financial flexibility for capex, acquisitions, and dividends. If the trend persists over the next 2–3 quarters, it can constrain reinvestment and elevate reliance on external financing for strategic initiatives.
Loss‑of‑exclusivity (LOE) headwinds
Anticipated LOE-driven revenue compression is a structural near‑term headwind that erodes core sales and margin contribution. Over 2026–2028 this pressure can materially slow top-line growth and force reprioritization of resources toward newer assets, impacting medium-term revenue visibility.
Impairments and GAAP volatility
Large non‑cash impairments indicate portfolio reprioritization and that prior investments failed to meet expectations. This raises execution risk around pipeline forecasting and creates GAAP earnings volatility, complicating long‑term earnings quality and investor visibility into sustainable profits.

Pfizer (PFE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Pfizer Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPfizer Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular metabolic and women's health under the Premarin family and Eliquis brands; biologics, small molecules, immunotherapies, and biosimilars under the Ibrance, Xtandi, Sutent, Inlyta, Retacrit, Lorbrena, and Braftovi brands; and sterile injectable and anti-infective medicines, and oral COVID-19 treatment under the Sulperazon, Medrol, Zavicefta, Zithromax, Vfend, Panzyga, and Paxlovid brands. The company also provides medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, such as pneumococcal disease, meningococcal disease, tick-borne encephalitis, and COVID-19 under the Comirnaty/BNT162b2, Nimenrix, FSME/IMMUN-TicoVac, Trumenba, and the Prevnar family brands; biosimilars for chronic immune and inflammatory diseases under the Xeljanz, Enbrel, Inflectra, Eucrisa/Staquis, and Cibinqo brands; and amyloidosis, hemophilia, and endocrine diseases under the Vyndaqel/Vyndamax, BeneFIX, and Genotropin brands. In addition, the company is involved in the contract manufacturing business. It serves wholesalers, retailers, hospitals, clinics, government agencies, pharmacies, and individual provider offices, as well as disease control and prevention centers. The company has collaboration agreements with Bristol-Myers Squibb Company; Astellas Pharma US, Inc.; Myovant Sciences Ltd.; Akcea Therapeutics, Inc; Merck KGaA; Valneva SE; BioNTech SE; and Arvinas, Inc. Pfizer Inc. was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyPfizer primarily generates revenue through the sale of prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. The company’s revenue model is supported by a diverse range of products across multiple therapeutic areas, allowing it to capitalize on various market segments. Key revenue streams include sales of patented drugs, which often command higher prices until they face generic competition, and sales of vaccines, particularly during public health emergencies or vaccination campaigns. Significant partnerships, such as the collaboration with BioNTech for the development of the COVID-19 vaccine, have also contributed to Pfizer's earnings, enhancing its market share and expanding its product offerings. Additionally, Pfizer invests heavily in research and development to innovate and bring new therapies to market, which further drives revenue growth.

Pfizer Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Pfizer is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsPfizer's revenue from Emerging and Developed Markets shows a declining trend, while the US market exhibits volatility with recent recovery signs. The earnings call highlights a 10% operational revenue increase, driven by strong product demand and strategic cost management, despite challenges from pricing pressures and competition in oncology. The company's focus on R&D and strategic partnerships, alongside improved EPS guidance, suggests a strategic pivot towards innovation and margin expansion, aiming to counteract geographic revenue declines and enhance long-term shareholder value.
Data provided by:The Fly

Pfizer Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong positives — better‑than‑expected adjusted EPS, margin expansion, meaningful cost‑savings realization, promising obesity (PF‑3944) clinical readouts with differentiated monthly dosing, robust activity on pivotal studies and approvals, and strategic acquisitions that are already contributing revenue growth. Offsetting these strengths are near‑term challenges: modest overall revenue decline (driven largely by a pronounced COVID revenue drop), a sizable $4.4 billion impairment reflecting portfolio reprioritization, upcoming LOE pressure (including ~ $1.5 billion revenue compression projected in 2026), and some GAAP volatility in the quarter. On balance, the company reinforced a clear strategic plan, reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and emphasized productivity/AI initiatives and reinvestment into high‑impact R&D, suggesting the positives materially outweigh the near‑term negatives.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeded Financial Expectations and Shareholder Returns
Full year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $3.22 versus $3.11 in 2024 (ahead of expectations); returned $9.8 billion to shareholders via dividends; invested $10.4 billion in internal R&D and ~$8.8 billion in business development.
Revenue Performance Excluding COVID: Positive Operational Growth
Full year 2025 operational revenue grew 6% when excluding COVID-19 products; non-COVID product revenue for Q4 grew 9% operationally versus prior year.
Strong Contribution from Recently Launched and Acquired Products
Recently launched and acquired products delivered $10.2 billion in revenues for 2025 and grew approximately 14% operationally versus prior year.
Margin Expansion and Cost Savings Progress
Full year adjusted gross margin expanded to 76%; achieved approximately $600 million in savings from phase one of the manufacturing optimization program through 2025 and expects total manufacturing savings of $1.5 billion by 2027.
Promising Obesity (Metsera / PF-3944) Clinical Data
VESPER (VESPA) three placebo‑adjusted weight loss of 10.0%–12.3% at week 28 for the low and medium monthly maintenance doses; model predicts ~16% placebo‑adjusted weight loss at week 28 for the high monthly dose (9.6 mg); safety profile favorable with predominantly mild/moderate GI AEs and low discontinuations.
Robust R&D and Pipeline Activity
2025 saw 40 approvals/critical readouts and initiation of 11 pivotal studies; company anticipates ~20 pivotal studies in 2026 (10 in the Metsera portfolio) and key readouts across oncology, obesity, and vaccines.
Commercial and Therapeutic Leadership Signals
Nurtec captured 83% of new CGRP writer volume in Q4 and led new patient starts in the oral CGRP class; PADCEV (PATCEV) achieved an FDA approval in a new muscle‑invasive bladder cancer indication, with potential to expand the US addressable population by ~22,500 patients if additional approvals succeed.
Scaling AI to Improve Productivity
Company is expanding AI compute to >1,200 GPUs, embedding AI across discovery, development, manufacturing, and commercial functions to accelerate speed, reduce costs, and improve productivity; AI cited as contributor to manufacturing and commercial efficiency gains.
Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance
2026 full year revenue guidance reaffirmed at $59.5 billion–$62.5 billion and adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $2.80–$3.00; non‑COVID & non‑LOE revenues at midpoint expected to grow ~4% operationally year‑over‑year.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Decline Year‑over‑Year
Full year 2025 revenues were $62.6 billion versus $63.6 billion in 2024, representing a 2% operational decline; Q4 2025 revenues were $17.6 billion, a 3% operational decline versus prior year.
Significant COVID Product Revenue Drop
COVID‑related revenues declined approximately 40% year‑over‑year in Q4 2025, driven by narrower vaccine recommendations and reduced Paxlovid demand; COVID products expected to trend lower in 2026 with ~ $5 billion of revenue.
Large Non‑Cash Impairments Reflect Pipeline/Portfolio Setbacks
Recorded approximately $4.4 billion of non‑cash intangible asset impairments in Q4 2025 related to several development and in‑line assets (example: deprioritization of dicitamab vedotin in bladder cancer due to PADCEV dynamics).
Near‑Term Loss‑of‑Exclusivity (LOE) Headwinds
Company expects ~ $1.5 billion in revenue compression in 2026 due to anticipated generic entry and anticipates LOE pressures through 2026–2028; leverage expected near ~2.7x and may remain at or slightly above that level during the LOE period.
GAAP Volatility in Quarter
Q4 2025 GAAP reported diluted EPS was a loss of $0.29 per share (impacted by impairments), though adjusted diluted EPS was $0.66 and ahead of expectations.
Pipeline/Trial Timing Uncertainty
Some event‑driven readouts (e.g., certain ADC/PD‑1 combo studies) are progressing slower than expected due to event accrual timing, creating uncertainty on near‑term catalyst timing.
Product Mix Pressure on Quarter Margins
Q4 adjusted gross margin declined to ~71% (vs mid‑upper seventies excluding Commodity historically), primarily reflecting an unfavorable product mix with lower COVID commodity sales.
Company Guidance
Pfizer reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance calling for total revenues of $59.5–$62.5 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.80–$3.00, with a mid‑seventies adjusted gross margin; management expects COVID‑19 product revenues to fall to about $5 billion and anticipates roughly $1.5 billion of 2026 revenue compression from products facing generic entry, while revenues at the midpoint excluding COVID and LOE products are expected to grow ~4% operationally. For context, full‑year 2025 revenues were $62.6 billion with adjusted diluted EPS of $3.22 and adjusted gross margin of 76%; Q4 revenues were $17.6 billion (−3% operationally) with non‑COVID Q4 growth of 9% and an approximate 40% Q4 COVID decline. Pfizer said it remains on track to deliver the majority of $7.2 billion in productivity savings by 2026, achieve $5.7 billion of cost‑realignment net savings by 2026, and add $700 million of manufacturing program savings in 2026 (and $200 million in 2027) toward a $1.5 billion total by 2027; it also noted ~ $7 billion of BD capacity (including expected VIVE proceeds), returned $9.8 billion in dividends in 2025, and invested $10.4 billion in internal R&D and ~$8.8 billion in business development in 2025.

Pfizer Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong gross margin (71.19%) and healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins support operating strength, but negatives include declining revenue (-1.64%), reduced net margin (15.64%), weaker ROE (10.91%), and falling free cash flow growth (-16.58%), which temper the overall financial profile.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Pfizer's income statement reflects a strong gross profit margin of 71.19% in the TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 15.64% from previous highs, suggesting increased expenses or reduced revenue. The revenue growth rate is negative at -1.64%, indicating a decline in sales compared to the previous period. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 23.05% and 33.72%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Pfizer maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.66, reflecting a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity is 10.91%, which, while positive, has decreased from previous years, indicating reduced profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 44.45%, suggesting a stable financial structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
The cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow growth at -16.58%, which could impact future investments and shareholder returns. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.36, indicating that operating cash flow covers net income adequately. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.79, suggesting that a substantial portion of net income is converted into free cash flow, though this has decreased from previous periods.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue62.58B63.63B59.55B100.33B81.29B
Gross Profit44.01B41.85B30.34B62.09B46.88B
EBITDA15.10B18.13B9.56B41.03B30.79B
Net Income7.77B8.02B2.13B31.36B22.15B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets0.00213.40B226.50B197.21B181.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments0.0020.48B12.69B22.73B31.07B
Total Debt0.0066.99B70.84B34.86B37.00B
Total Liabilities-93.10B124.90B137.21B101.29B104.01B
Stockholders Equity93.10B88.20B89.01B95.66B77.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.009.84B4.79B26.03B29.87B
Operating Cash Flow0.0012.74B8.70B29.27B32.58B
Investing Cash Flow0.002.65B-32.28B-15.78B-22.55B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-17.14B26.07B-14.83B-9.82B

Pfizer Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price26.65
Price Trends
50DMA
25.69
Positive
100DMA
25.10
Positive
200DMA
24.15
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.46
Positive
RSI
51.88
Neutral
STOCH
34.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PFE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.75, above the 50-day MA of 25.69, and above the 200-day MA of 24.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PFE.

Pfizer Risk Analysis

Pfizer disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pfizer reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Pfizer Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$301.96B16.713.12%1.59%58.02%
77
Outperform
$312.45B22.8131.14%2.87%11.53%-15.21%
73
Outperform
$155.62B20.136.65%4.44%128.96%
73
Outperform
$590.40B22.2035.03%2.50%6.05%
71
Outperform
$204.70B26.69106.10%3.00%11.03%65.22%
60
Neutral
$404.24B95.969999.00%2.87%7.40%-53.78%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PFE
Pfizer
26.65
1.80
7.26%
AMGN
Amgen
374.75
74.45
24.79%
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
242.49
82.34
51.41%
MRK
Merck & Company
122.26
34.30
38.99%
NVS
Novartis
162.67
56.66
53.46%
ABBV
AbbVie
224.81
27.35
13.85%

Pfizer Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Pfizer Revises 2025 Revenue Guidance to $62 Billion
Neutral
Dec 16, 2025

On December 16, 2025, Pfizer announced its financial guidance for the full year 2026, while revising its 2025 revenue guidance to approximately $62.0 billion. The company expects 2026 revenues to range between $59.5 and $62.5 billion, with a decrease in COVID-19 product revenues and impacts from loss of exclusivity on certain products. Pfizer anticipates continued investment in its pipeline and acquired assets to fuel long-term growth, with adjusted diluted EPS for 2026 projected between $2.80 and $3.00. The financial outlook reflects Pfizer’s strategic focus on innovative medicines and vaccines, aiming to create long-term value for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFE) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pfizer stock, see the PFE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Pfizer Completes $5 Billion Public Offering
Neutral
Nov 21, 2025

On November 21, 2025, Pfizer Inc. completed a significant public offering of various notes totaling $5 billion, with maturities ranging from 2027 to 2065. This financial move, conducted under a shelf registration statement, involved major financial institutions as underwriters and is expected to impact Pfizer’s financial strategy and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFE) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pfizer stock, see the PFE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Pfizer Completes Acquisition of Metsera for $7 Billion
Positive
Nov 13, 2025

On November 13, 2025, Pfizer completed its acquisition of Metsera, Inc., a Delaware-based company, for approximately $7.0 billion. The acquisition includes contingent value rights for additional payments tied to the achievement of specific milestones related to Metsera’s GLP-1 receptor antagonist and amylin analog therapies, potentially impacting Pfizer’s strategic positioning in the pharmaceutical industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (PFE) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pfizer stock, see the PFE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 03, 2026