Alto Ingredients (ALTO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $84.93M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 334.78K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: -17.27%
• EPS Growth: -112.62%
• Country: US
• Employees: 393
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 68
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 77,210,175
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 258,869
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 334,783
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 36.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -4.08
• 1Y Price Target: $5.50
• Price Target Upside: 370.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-14.53%Downside)

Alto Ingredients faces substantial financial challenges with negative profitability and cash flow issues. Technical indicators are mixed, and the valuation is unattractive with a negative P/E ratio. The recent Nasdaq delisting notice adds significant risk. The company's strategic initiatives and regulatory optimism provide some positive outlook, but overall, the risks currently outweigh the potential rewards.

Positive Factors

Acquisition

The acquisition of a liquid CO2 business is expected to be immediately accretive, providing future earnings upside.

Cost Management

Cost-cutting measures, including reducing headcount and cold idling a facility, are expected to save $8 million annually.

Strategic Initiatives

Management is considering various strategic options to unlock shareholder value beyond selling assets, indicating a proactive approach to improving the company's financial health.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Revenues declined by 13.6% year-over-year due to lower ethanol prices, and the company reported a net loss for the quarter.

Global Trade

Global headwinds resulting from reduced exports to China have the potential to impact ethanol demand adversely.

Gross Margins

Depressed crush spreads continued to impact gross margins during the quarter.

Alto Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alto Ingredients, Inc. produces and markets specialty alcohols and essential ingredients in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Production, and Other Production. It offers specialty alcohols used in mouthwash, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, hand sanitizers, disinfectants, and cleaners for health, home, and beauty markets; grain neutral spirits used in alcoholic beverages, flavor extracts, and vinegar, as well as corn germ used in corn oils and carbon dioxide for food and beverage markets; and essential ingredients include dried yeast, corn gluten meal, corn gluten feed, distillers grains, and liquid feed for commercial animal feed and pet food applications. The company also provides fuel-grade ethanol used as transportation fuel and distillers corn oil used as a biodiesel feedstock, as well as fuel-grade ethanol produced by third parties. In addition, it offers transportation, storage, and delivery services through third-party service providers. The company sells ethanol to integrated oil companies and gasoline marketers; essential ingredient feed products to dairies and feedlots; and corn oil to poultry and biodiesel customers. It operates five alcohol production facilities, including three plants in the Midwestern states of Illinois; and two facilities located in the Western states of Oregon and Idaho. The company was formerly known as Pacific Ethanol, Inc. and changed its name to Alto Ingredients, Inc. in January 2021. Alto Ingredients, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pekin, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Alto Ingredients generates revenue through the production and sale of its specialty alcohols and essential ingredients. The company operates several production facilities where it converts corn into alcohol and other co-products. Revenue streams include high-grade alcohols for consumer and industrial use, co-products such as distillers' grains sold to the animal feed industry, and corn oil. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships and distribution agreements that enhance market reach and operational efficiency. Factors such as commodity prices, government regulations on renewable fuels, and market demand for specialty alcohols significantly influence its earnings.

Alto Ingredients Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alto Ingredients is experiencing significant financial difficulties, marked by declining revenues, negative profitability margins, and cash flow issues. The low leverage is a positive aspect, but the negative return on equity indicates inefficiencies in generating shareholder returns. Overall, the financial statements reflect a company struggling with operational and financial challenges, which may pose risks for future stability and growth.

Income Statement

Alto Ingredients has experienced a significant decline in revenue from $1,222.94M in 2023 to $965.26M in 2024, marking a revenue growth rate of -21.06%. Additionally, the company has faced notable profitability challenges, with a negative gross profit margin of 1.01% and a net profit margin of -6.24% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative. These factors indicate struggling operational efficiency and weak profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.02, reflecting low leverage, which is a positive aspect. However, the return on equity is negative at -26.77%, indicating shareholders are not seeing positive returns. The equity ratio is not available for 2024 due to missing total assets data, but the available data indicates a weakening financial position over time.

Cash Flow

Alto Ingredients has faced significant challenges in cash flow management, with a negative free cash flow of -$14.59M in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, highlighting ongoing liquidity concerns and raising questions about the company's ability to sustain operations without external financing.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
951.17M	965.26M	1.22B	1.34B	1.21B	897.02M
	Gross Profit
6.98M	9.72M	15.65M	-27.55M	67.78M	52.86M
	EBIT
-53.20M	-51.67M	-23.85M	-61.36M	16.52M	-18.60M
	EBITDA
-24.63M	-26.76M	2.60M	-12.75M	61.89M	51.15M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-58.94M	-58.98M	-28.00M	-41.60M	46.08M	-17.28M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
0.00	36.21M	30.01M	36.46M	50.61M	47.67M
	Total Assets
0.00	403.05M	454.24M	478.32M	484.95M	476.82M
	Total Debt
115.63M	114.67M	105.46M	87.27M	63.65M	108.23M
	Net Debt
115.63M	79.20M	75.44M	50.81M	13.04M	60.57M
	Total Liabilities
188.29M	176.38M	174.68M	170.23M	139.74M	180.58M
	Stockholders Equity
213.92M	225.06M	279.56M	308.09M	345.21M	296.24M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-30.14M	-14.59M	-7.51M	-31.70M	10.44M	65.20M
	Operating Cash Flow
-23.18M	-3.52M	22.02M	6.05M	26.82M	71.78M
	Investing Cash Flow
-15.23M	-13.47M	-33.03M	-37.66M	27.12M	23.32M
	Financing Cash Flow
23.51M	7.72M	6.96M	19.01M	-40.00M	-66.42M

Alto Ingredients Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.17
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.99, above the 50-day MA of 0.92, and below the 200-day MA of 1.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.20 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALTO.

Alto Ingredients Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	72 Outperform	$742.58M	14.57	10.68%	―	-18.36%	-13.81%
KOP	65 Neutral	$654.93M	27.86	5.08%	0.98%	-4.09%	-66.97%
GPRE	52 Neutral	$304.11M	―	-12.34%	―	-19.82%	-34.91%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.04B	-1.23	-21.09%	3.96%	2.90%	-30.45%
GEVO	50 Neutral	$294.66M	―	-16.11%	―	145.38%	-22.02%
ALTO	46 Neutral	$84.93M	―	-24.43%	―	-17.27%	-112.62%
TSE	43 Neutral	$120.85M	―	103.25%	1.18%	-5.28%	51.91%

Alto Ingredients Corporate Events

Alto Ingredients Faces Nasdaq Delisting Notice

On May 19, 2025, Alto Ingredients, Inc. received a notification from Nasdaq indicating that its stock price had fallen below the minimum required for continued listing. The company has until November 15, 2025, to regain compliance by ensuring its stock price closes at or above $1.00 for at least 10 consecutive business days. If unsuccessful, Alto may qualify for an additional 180-day period to meet the requirements, potentially involving a reverse stock split. Failure to comply could result in delisting, though the company can appeal such a decision.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALTO) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alto Ingredients stock, see the ALTO Stock Forecast page.

Alto Ingredients Announces Board Changes in 2025

On March 17, 2025, Alto Ingredients, Inc. entered into a letter agreement with the Radoff/Torok Group, which includes provisions for board member nominations and standstill agreements. As part of this agreement, board members Douglas L. Kieta and Michael D. Kandris announced they would not stand for re-election at the 2025 Annual Meeting, impacting the company’s board composition and governance structure.