Alto Ingredients (ALTO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $84.36M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 318.23K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: -12.70%
• EPS Growth: -74.32%
• Country: US
• Employees: 393
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 77,396,805
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 626,971
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 318,227
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.12
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.21
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 562.42
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.26
• 1Y Price Target: $5.50
• Price Target Upside: 404.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-8.26% Downside)

Alto Ingredients is facing substantial financial difficulties, as reflected in its financial performance score. The technical analysis suggests a bearish trend, and the valuation metrics are unattractive due to ongoing losses. Despite some positive developments from the earnings call, the overall outlook remains challenging.

Positive Factors

Improvement in Adjusted EBITDA

The improvement in adjusted EBITDA indicates successful productivity initiatives, enhancing operational efficiency and potentially leading to better financial health over time.

Cost-Saving Initiatives

Effective cost-saving measures can improve margins and profitability, providing a stronger financial foundation and increased resilience against market fluctuations.

Regulatory Benefits

The favorable regulatory environment with 45Z credits enhances cash flow and supports strategic investments, contributing to long-term financial stability.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

The decline in sales volume and revenue suggests market challenges and potential demand issues, impacting the company's ability to generate consistent income.

Higher Net Loss

Increased net losses indicate financial strain and operational inefficiencies, which can hinder investment in growth and strategic initiatives.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative cash flows restrict the company's ability to fund operations and growth, potentially leading to liquidity issues and increased reliance on external financing.

Alto Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alto Ingredients, Inc. produces and markets specialty alcohols and essential ingredients in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Production, and Other Production. It offers specialty alcohols used in mouthwash, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, hand sanitizers, disinfectants, and cleaners for health, home, and beauty markets; grain neutral spirits used in alcoholic beverages, flavor extracts, and vinegar, as well as corn germ used in corn oils and carbon dioxide for food and beverage markets; and essential ingredients include dried yeast, corn gluten meal, corn gluten feed, distillers grains, and liquid feed for commercial animal feed and pet food applications. The company also provides fuel-grade ethanol used as transportation fuel and distillers corn oil used as a biodiesel feedstock, as well as fuel-grade ethanol produced by third parties. In addition, it offers transportation, storage, and delivery services through third-party service providers. The company sells ethanol to integrated oil companies and gasoline marketers; essential ingredient feed products to dairies and feedlots; and corn oil to poultry and biodiesel customers. It operates five alcohol production facilities, including three plants in the Midwestern states of Illinois; and two facilities located in the Western states of Oregon and Idaho. The company was formerly known as Pacific Ethanol, Inc. and changed its name to Alto Ingredients, Inc. in January 2021. Alto Ingredients, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pekin, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Alto Ingredients generates revenue primarily through the sale of its ethanol and specialty ingredients. The company has multiple revenue streams, including sales of fuel-grade ethanol to the energy sector, high-purity alcohol for industrial applications, and value-added products for the food and beverage industries. Key partnerships with major distributors and manufacturers enhance its market reach and enable the company to tap into various customer segments. Additionally, the company benefits from a focus on sustainability, which attracts clients looking for eco-friendly solutions. Fluctuations in commodity prices and regulatory changes also play significant roles in shaping the company's earnings, as they impact production costs and market demand for its products.

Alto Ingredients Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alto Ingredients is experiencing significant financial difficulties. The income statement shows declining revenues and negative profitability margins. The balance sheet indicates manageable leverage but poor returns on equity. Cash flow analysis highlights significant cash management issues. Overall, the company faces substantial financial challenges that need to be addressed to improve its financial health.

Income Statement

Alto Ingredients has faced declining revenues with a negative growth rate of -1.9% in the TTM period. The company is struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is extremely low, suggesting challenges in cost management or pricing strategy. Overall, the income statement reflects a company under financial pressure with declining performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67, indicating a manageable level of leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting poor profitability and returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the company's equity position appears stable relative to its assets. Despite some stability, the negative ROE highlights ongoing financial challenges.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals significant challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM period. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, indicating cash flow issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to cover net losses, but overall cash flow performance is weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	933.14M	965.26M	1.22B	1.34B	1.21B	897.02M
Gross Profit	345.00K	9.72M	15.65M	-27.55M	67.78M	52.86M
EBITDA	-31.01M	-26.76M	2.60M	-12.75M	61.89M	51.15M
Net Income	-66.83M	-58.98M	-28.00M	-41.60M	46.08M	-17.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	393.06M	401.44M	454.24M	478.32M	484.95M	476.82M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	30.49M	35.47M	30.01M	36.46M	50.61M	47.67M
Total Debt	138.72M	114.67M	105.46M	87.27M	63.65M	108.23M
Total Liabilities	185.22M	176.38M	174.68M	170.23M	139.74M	180.58M
Stockholders Equity	207.84M	225.06M	279.56M	308.09M	345.21M	296.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-13.09M	-14.59M	-7.51M	-31.70M	10.44M	65.20M
Operating Cash Flow	-10.30M	-3.52M	22.02M	6.05M	26.82M	71.78M
Investing Cash Flow	-11.90M	-13.47M	-33.03M	-37.66M	27.12M	23.32M
Financing Cash Flow	24.28M	7.72M	6.96M	19.01M	-40.00M	-66.42M

Alto Ingredients Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.09
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALTO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.13, below the 50-day MA of 1.10, and below the 200-day MA of 1.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALTO.

Alto Ingredients Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	75 Outperform	$1.03B	21.07	10.38%	―	-9.57%	-24.85%
KOP	61 Neutral	$560.12M	39.87	2.87%	1.09%	-6.20%	-80.00%
GPRE	59 Neutral	$603.86M	-3.82	-20.66%	―	-15.66%	-237.12%
GEVO	56 Neutral	$498.19M	-8.35	-12.31%	―	341.75%	20.16%
TSE	45 Neutral	$89.16M	-0.23	-14.81%	1.61%	-7.97%	13.42%
ALTO	42 Neutral	$84.36M	―	-28.22%	―	-12.70%	-74.32%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Alto Ingredients Corporate Events

Alto Ingredients Regains Nasdaq Compliance

On June 23, 2025, Alto Ingredients, Inc. received a notification from Nasdaq confirming that the company’s stock price had met the minimum requirement of $1.00 per share for 10 consecutive business days, thus regaining compliance with Nasdaq’s listing rules. This development ensures the company’s continued listing on the Nasdaq Stock Market, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and market presence.

Alto Ingredients Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On June 25, 2025, Alto Ingredients, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key proposals were approved. The meeting resulted in the election of six directors, approval of executive compensation, a recommendation for the frequency of advisory votes on executive compensation, and the ratification of RSM US LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025.