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Alto Ingredients
(NASDAQ:ALTO)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▲(7.76% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
ALTO scores in the mid-range primarily due to a meaningful TTM financial turnaround (profitability and stronger free cash flow with improved leverage) and a positive earnings call outlook around production growth and 45Z monetization. Offsetting these strengths, price momentum is currently weak versus key moving averages with negative MACD, and historical earnings/cash-flow volatility remains a key sustainability risk.
Positive Factors
Improved balance sheet & debt reduction
Leverage has meaningfully improved with lower debt-to-equity and active principal paydowns, enhancing financial flexibility. A stronger capital structure reduces refinancing risk, supports targeted CapEx and tax-credit monetization, and provides resilience through commodity cycles if profitability holds.
Negative Factors
Historical earnings and cash-flow volatility
Past multi-year swings from losses to profits highlight structural earnings cyclicality tied to commodity spreads and utilization. Volatility complicates planning, raises forecasting risk, and means current improvements could reverse if input/product economics deteriorate, pressuring long-term sustainability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved balance sheet & debt reduction
Leverage has meaningfully improved with lower debt-to-equity and active principal paydowns, enhancing financial flexibility. A stronger capital structure reduces refinancing risk, supports targeted CapEx and tax-credit monetization, and provides resilience through commodity cycles if profitability holds.
Read all positive factors
Alto Ingredients (ALTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$324.24M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.1
Beta (1Y)0.01
Revenue Growth1.09%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees390
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.68
Shares Outstanding77,567,566
10 Day Avg. Volume2,717,842
30 Day Avg. Volume2,645,325
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.15
Price to Book (P/B)0.87
Price to Sales (P/S)0.23
P/FCF Ratio24.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.00Price Target Upside93.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$953.06M
Alto Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alto Ingredients, Inc., operating within the United States, specializes in the production and commercialization of both specialty alcohols and various essential ingredients. Its operations are structured into three distinct segments: Marketing and...
How the Company Makes Money
Alto Ingredients makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling (1) ethanol and (2) specialty alcohols, plus (3) co-products generated from its production process. Revenue is largely driven by the spread between the market price of its alcohol...
Alto Ingredients Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a decidedly positive operating and financial narrative: strong YoY revenue growth, materially improved crush margins, a return to net income and positive adjusted EBITDA, significant operating cash flow, targeted capacity expansions (Pekin debottlenecking, Columbia CO2 tank) and active monetization plans for 45Z tax credits. Headwinds are present but manageable — primarily export volume impacts from geopolitical shipping disruptions, ~$2 million of outage and maintenance expense, unrealized derivative mark-to-market headwinds and timing/execution risks around realizing additional low carbon intensity benefits. On balance, the company demonstrated improved profitability, disciplined capital allocation (debt paydown and targeted CapEx), and multiple levers to drive future upside.Positive Updates
Sustained Profitability Across Key Metrics
Fourth consecutive quarter of positive gross profit, income from operations, net income, and adjusted EBITDA; adjusted EBITDA improved by $23.9 million to $23.7 million (from negative in prior-year period).
Negative Updates
Export Volumes Declined Due to Geopolitical Shipping Disruption
Renewable fuel export volumes declined versus Q2 last year (noted 2.2 million gallon reduction) as Middle East geopolitical disruption raised freight costs and reduced vessel availability, compressing U.S.–Europe arbitrage and increasing Brazil competitiveness.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Sustained Profitability Across Key Metrics
Fourth consecutive quarter of positive gross profit, income from operations, net income, and adjusted EBITDA; adjusted EBITDA improved by $23.9 million to $23.7 million (from negative in prior-year period).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Alto guided that it remains on track to increase 2026 production versus 2025 and to qualify 90+ million gallons this year, supporting its expectation to generate a minimum of $15 million of net 45Z tax‑credit income after monetization costs (year‑to‑date accrued ~$7.9M; Q2 45Z earnings $5.1M), and it expects to realize the full benefit of the Pekin dry‑mill debottlenecking (≈5 million gallons, ~8% annual capacity increase) in Q4; management reiterated an annual CapEx target of $25 million (projects currently >$10M with average paybacks just over one year), said it will monetize 2026 credits in the near term, and emphasized financial flexibility with $24M cash (6/30/26), $28.5M cash from operations in Q2, $29.9M term debt outstanding after $25.1M of principal paid year‑to‑date (including $8.5M in Q2), $106M total borrowing availability ($41M LOC, $65M term), and a $50M at‑the‑market equity program.Alto Ingredients Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 943.33M | 917.93M | 965.26M | 1.22B | 1.34B | 1.21B |
| Gross Profit | 53.02M | 26.84M | 9.72M | 15.65M | -27.55M | 67.78M |
| EBITDA | 69.61M | 48.70M | -26.76M | 2.60M | -12.75M | 74.43M |
| Net Income | 51.67M | 13.34M | -58.98M | -28.00M | -41.60M | 46.08M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 397.07M | 388.79M | 401.44M | 454.24M | 478.32M | 484.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.96M | 25.67M | 35.47M | 30.01M | 36.46M | 50.61M |
| Total Debt | 82.94M | 97.60M | 114.67M | 105.46M | 87.27M | 63.65M |
| Total Liabilities | 137.19M | 143.54M | 176.38M | 174.68M | 170.23M | 139.74M |
| Stockholders Equity | 259.88M | 245.24M | 225.06M | 279.56M | 308.09M | 345.21M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 49.94M | 8.65M | -14.59M | -7.51M | -31.70M | 10.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 65.01M | 13.24M | -3.52M | 22.02M | 6.05M | 26.82M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.38M | -7.43M | -13.47M | -33.03M | -37.66M | 27.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -63.16M | -16.36M | 7.72M | 6.96M | 19.01M | -40.00M |
Alto Ingredients Technical Analysis
Negative
4.64
Price Trends
5.13
Negative
5.04
Negative
3.85
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.28
Positive
38.78
Neutral
8.73
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALTO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.64, below the 50-day MA of 5.13, and above the 200-day MA of 3.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.73 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALTO.
Alto Ingredients Risk Analysis
Alto Ingredients disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alto Ingredients reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alto Ingredients Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $2.31B | 19.11 | 9.15% | 2.11% | 2.87% | 534.76% | |
73 Outperform | $1.47B | 15.87 | 15.77% | ― | 2.95% | 73.25% | |
64 Neutral | $324.24M | 6.12 | 21.15% | ― | 1.09% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $1.09B | 8.71 | 15.54% | ― | -21.51% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $1.48B | -543.08 | -0.22% | 2.73% | 7.63% | -104.57% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
48 Neutral | $417.83M | -1.87 | -51.42% | ― | 121.37% | -264.53% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
4.18
3.13
298.10%
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Alto Ingredients Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Alto Ingredients Shareholders Approve 2026 Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
At its annual meeting on June 23, 2026, Alto Ingredients’ shareholders approved a new 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan, authorizing up to 7,000,000 shares for a broad range of equity and cash-based awards to executives, employees, directors and o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.