Alto Ingredients (ALTO)
NASDAQ:ALTO
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Alto Ingredients
(NASDAQ:ALTO)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-0.22% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/14/26
The score is driven by improving (but still inconsistent) financial performance and a constructive earnings call with clearer 2026 catalysts (45Z credits, exports, and debt reduction). Technicals are supportive but overextended, while valuation is reasonable with no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Profitability recovery
Alto reversed multi-year losses with material profit improvement in 2025, demonstrating restored earnings power and margin recovery. This indicates the business can generate sustainable operating profits if commodity spreads and execution remain steady, reducing bankruptcy and recap risk.
Negative Factors
Revenue and volume volatility
The business exhibits pronounced top-line volatility and sensitivity to plant idling and utilization. Large revenue swings undermine predictability of margins and cash flows, complicating long-term planning and increasing the risk that fixed costs and capital needs will outpace revenues in adverse cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability recovery
Alto reversed multi-year losses with material profit improvement in 2025, demonstrating restored earnings power and margin recovery. This indicates the business can generate sustainable operating profits if commodity spreads and execution remain steady, reducing bankruptcy and recap risk.
Read all positive factors
Alto Ingredients (ALTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$348.59M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.1
Beta (1Y)0.13
Revenue Growth-8.00%
EPS Growth-35.86%
CountryUS
Employees393
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.28
Shares Outstanding77,292,550
10 Day Avg. Volume1,244,262
30 Day Avg. Volume2,174,548
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.87
Price to Sales (P/S)0.23
P/FCF Ratio24.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda26.95
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.75Price Target Upside27.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$994.99M
Alto Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alto Ingredients, Inc. produces and markets specialty alcohols and essential ingredients in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Production, and Other Production. It offers specialty alcohols...
How the Company Makes Money
Alto Ingredients makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling alcohol products and related co-products. Its core revenue stream is the sale of alcohols, which include (1) fuel-grade ethanol sold into transportation fuels markets and (2) spec...
Alto Ingredients Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a pronounced turnaround: substantial swings to positive net income and adjusted EBITDA, improved margins (crush and product returns), successful CO2 diversification and progress on 45Z credits, plus active debt reduction and a disciplined capital plan for 2026. Lowlights include lower volumes from idling a plant, derivative losses and one-time operational disruptions, incomplete 45Z eligibility for some assets, and seasonal/weather risks. Overall, the positive operational and financial progress materially outweighs the remaining challenges.Positive Updates
Material Improvement in Profitability
Net income (attributable to common stockholders) of $21.5M in Q4 2025, a $63.5M improvement versus Q4 2024; full-year 2025 net income of $12.1M compared to a $60.3M loss in 2024 (swing ≈ $72.4M).
Negative Updates
Lower Sales Volumes Due to Facility Idling
Net sales declined to $232M, $4M lower year-over-year, driven by a reduction in volumes sold of 10.6M gallons primarily from idling the Magic Valley facility.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Material Improvement in Profitability
Net income (attributable to common stockholders) of $21.5M in Q4 2025, a $63.5M improvement versus Q4 2024; full-year 2025 net income of $12.1M compared to a $60.3M loss in 2024 (swing ≈ $72.4M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Alto guided that for 2026 it expects to qualify roughly 90 million gallons of combined production for 45Z credits at Columbia and Pekin and, with ILUC removed from GREET, to receive about $0.20 per gallon (vs $0.10/gal recorded for 2025) totaling approximately $15 million in net proceeds; the company has contracted significant renewable fuel export volumes for H1 2026 and expects to match 2025 high‑quality alcohol volumes. Capital guidance calls for roughly $25 million of 2026 CapEx (≈45% maintenance, 55% optimization), including Pekin dock repairs and a second alcohol loadout to be completed by year‑end and a Pekin Dry Mill capacity increase of ~8% (~5 million gallons) to be implemented end Q3/Q4 (with normal Q2 outages at ICP and Columbia and a longer Pekin H2 outage); financial guidance/targets include reducing term debt from $55 million at year‑end 2025 by $10 million (Feb) and an additional $6 million (Mar) to about $39 million by end‑Q1, while operating from a year‑end cash balance of $23 million, Q4 operating cash flow of $10 million, and total borrowing availability of $102 million.Alto Ingredients Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
48
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 917.93M | 965.26M | 1.22B | 1.34B | 1.21B |
| Gross Profit | 34.91M | 9.72M | 15.65M | -27.55M | 67.78M |
| EBITDA | 32.92M | -26.76M | 2.60M | -12.75M | 74.43M |
| Net Income | 13.34M | -58.98M | -28.00M | -41.60M | 46.08M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 388.79M | 401.44M | 454.24M | 478.32M | 484.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.67M | 35.47M | 30.01M | 36.46M | 50.61M |
| Total Debt | 97.60M | 114.67M | 105.46M | 87.27M | 63.65M |
| Total Liabilities | 143.54M | 176.38M | 174.68M | 170.23M | 139.74M |
| Stockholders Equity | 245.24M | 225.06M | 279.56M | 308.09M | 345.21M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.65M | -14.59M | -7.51M | -31.70M | 10.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 13.24M | -3.52M | 22.02M | 6.05M | 26.82M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.43M | -13.47M | -33.03M | -37.66M | 27.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.36M | 7.72M | 6.96M | 19.01M | -40.00M |
Alto Ingredients Technical Analysis
Positive
4.51
Price Trends
3.23
Positive
2.80
Positive
1.96
Positive
Market Momentum
0.39
Positive
65.08
Neutral
54.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.16, above the 50-day MA of 3.23, and above the 200-day MA of 1.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALTO.
Alto Ingredients Risk Analysis
Alto Ingredients disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alto Ingredients reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alto Ingredients Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.57B | 13.54 | 14.68% | ― | -3.10% | -22.31% | |
73 Outperform | $1.79B | 16.33 | 9.01% | 2.19% | -4.49% | -100.80% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $1.12B | 23.10 | 3.80% | 3.33% | 5.35% | -1.43% | |
60 Neutral | $348.59M | 16.09 | 6.00% | ― | -8.00% | -35.86% | |
58 Neutral | $1.18B | -5.45 | -15.81% | ― | -12.07% | -821.68% | |
53 Neutral | $611.91M | -13.83 | 0.26% | ― | 675.75% | 42.00% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
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Alto Ingredients
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.