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Green Plains (GPRE)
NASDAQ:GPRE
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Green Plains
(NASDAQ:GPRE)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▲(3.93% Upside)
Positive Factors
Cost Savings
GPRE has already executed against $45mm in annualized cost savings and paused its Clean Sugar plant, saving $10mm annually.
Ethanol Margins Outlook
The outlook for ethanol margins has improved, with positive EBITDA in forward curves, with contributions from higher corn oil values ahead of anticipated increases to RVO, inventory draw down due to maintenance, stronger blending demand, and large expected corn harvest.
Regulatory Developments
Regulatory developments have been positive for Green Plains' carbon capture platform.
Negative Factors
Ethanol Margins Challenge
Ethanol margins are expected to reset lower, posing a challenge for Green Plains.
Stock Dilution
Stock dilution is a concern as Green Plains manages its debt maturities, leading to a 10% dilution this year.
Stock Valuation
The company's stock price is higher than the price objective, indicating potential overvaluation.
Green Plains (GPRE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$567.80M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.04
Revenue Growth-15.66%
EPS Growth-237.12%
CountryUS
Employees923
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength66
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.09
Shares Outstanding65,565,370
10 Day Avg. Volume1,768,012
30 Day Avg. Volume1,510,081
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-16.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.75Price Target Upside1.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
Green Plains Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGreen Plains Inc. (GPRE) is a leading provider of renewable energy solutions, primarily engaged in the production and marketing of ethanol and its co-products. Operating within the agricultural and energy sectors, the company focuses on transforming corn into high-quality ethanol, while also producing distillers grains and corn oil. Green Plains is committed to sustainable practices and is expanding its footprint in the renewable energy market, including advancements in biofuels and other renewable products.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreen Plains generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the production and sale of ethanol, which is a renewable fuel used in transportation. The company operates a network of ethanol production facilities that convert corn into ethanol, capturing the value from both ethanol and its co-products, such as distillers grains (used as animal feed) and corn oil (used in biodiesel production). Additionally, Green Plains earns income from its marketing and distribution services, which involve selling ethanol and its co-products to various customers, including fuel blenders and livestock feed suppliers. Strategic partnerships with agricultural producers, fuel companies, and renewable energy firms enhance its market reach and operational efficiency. Furthermore, the company is increasingly focusing on innovation in renewable energy technologies, which may provide additional revenue opportunities as the market for sustainable energy continues to grow.
Green Plains Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Ethanol Gallons Sold
Measures the volume of ethanol sold, indicating the company's market share in the biofuel industry and its ability to meet demand for renewable energy sources.
Measures the volume of ethanol sold, indicating the company's market share in the biofuel industry and its ability to meet demand for renewable energy sources.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataGreen Plains Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 17.03%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a balanced outlook with significant operational improvements and progress on strategic initiatives like carbon strategy and cost reduction, but also highlights financial challenges such as a substantial net loss and revenue decline.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Operational Excellence and Cost Reductions
Green Plains achieved 99% capacity utilization and the highest ethanol yields in history while maintaining low quarterly OpEx. The company has met its $50 million cost reduction target through operational improvements.
Carbon Strategy Progress
Material progress on carbon strategy with CCS infrastructure on schedule, expected to start in Q4 2025. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act extends the 45Z tax credit, improving CI by 5-6 points and potentially contributing $150 million annually in EBITDA from 2026.
Increased Liquidity and Asset Sales
Liquidity strengthened through noncore asset sales, including the sale of the Tharaldson JV, raising $23.5 million in cash. The company also completed a sale of RINs accumulated over several years.
SG&A and Efficiency Improvements
SG&A expenses were reduced by $6.3 million from the prior year, with a plan to exit fiscal year '25 with corporate and trade SG&A in the low $40 million range.
Negative Updates
Net Loss for Q2 2025
Green Plains reported a net loss of $72.2 million for Q2 2025, compared to a $24.4 million loss in Q2 2024. This includes $44.9 million in noncash charges and $2.5 million in restructuring charges.
Revenue Decline
Revenue for Q2 2025 was $552.8 million, down 10.7% year-over-year, due to exiting ethanol marketing for Tharaldson and placing the Fairmont ethanol asset on care and maintenance.
Interest Expense Increase
Interest expense increased by $6.4 million over the prior year, driven by expenses associated with accounting treatment for warrants and absence of capitalized interest from prior year projects.
Company Guidance
During the Green Plains Inc. Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided several key metrics and strategic updates. Green Plains reported a net loss of $72.2 million, or $1.09 per share, compared to a loss of $24.4 million, or $0.38 per share, in the same quarter of 2024. This included $44.9 million in noncash charges and $2.5 million in restructuring charges. Revenue for the quarter was $552.8 million, down 10.7% year-over-year, due to exiting certain ethanol marketing activities. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding restructuring and noncash charges, was $16.4 million, an improvement from $5 million in Q2 2024. The company achieved a $50 million cost reduction target and aims to end fiscal year 2025 with a corporate and trade SG&A run rate in the low $40 million range. Green Plains expects to generate more than $150 million in annualized EBITDA from its decarbonization strategy by 2026. The company also highlighted its progress in constructing CCS infrastructure, which is on track for a startup in Q4 2025, anticipated to unlock consistent cash flows and long-term value.Green Plains Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Green Plains faces significant financial challenges with declining revenue, negative profit margins, and cash flow issues. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage but sustained net losses, indicating a need for operational efficiency improvements.Income Statement
Green Plains has experienced declining revenue with a TTM revenue of $2.46 billion compared to $3.66 billion in 2022. Gross profit margin decreased from 5.55% in 2022 to 5.08% TTM, and net profit margin worsened to -4.22% TTM. Consistently negative EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate operational challenges.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.80 TTM, reflecting moderate leverage. However, a declining equity ratio from 42.86% in 2022 to 47.86% TTM indicates a decreasing reliance on equity financing. Return on equity remains negative due to consistent net losses.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Green Plains shows negative free cash flow growth, with TTM free cash flow at -$124.41 million, indicating cash management issues. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, signaling inefficiencies in converting profits into cash flows.40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.40B | 2.46B | 3.30B | 3.66B | 2.83B | 1.92B |
| Gross Profit | 84.26M | 130.45M | 164.75M | 137.84M | 179.00M | 85.43M |
| EBITDA | -53.94M | 50.62M | 53.60M | 26.22M | 116.09M | -42.89M |
| Net Income | -151.88M | -82.50M | -93.38M | -127.22M | -65.99M | -108.78M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.61B | 1.78B | 1.94B | 2.12B | 2.16B | 1.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 152.72M | 173.04M | 349.57M | 444.66M | 551.08M | 233.86M |
| Total Debt | 610.31M | 649.31M | 676.51M | 711.00M | 789.32M | 590.61M |
| Total Liabilities | 872.08M | 907.64M | 949.27M | 1.06B | 1.06B | 802.25M |
| Stockholders Equity | 735.18M | 865.22M | 843.73M | 910.03M | 950.50M | 646.85M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -43.95M | -125.05M | -51.75M | -142.66M | -182.95M | -11.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 39.51M | -29.96M | 56.35M | 69.71M | 4.25M | 98.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -38.89M | -62.05M | -106.90M | -105.25M | -236.28M | -11.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -72.99M | -77.35M | -70.96M | -25.14M | 518.19M | -82.53M |
Green Plains Technical Analysis
Positive
8.66
Price Trends
6.91
Positive
5.56
Positive
7.26
Positive
Market Momentum
0.42
Negative
60.87
Neutral
80.17
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.19, above the 50-day MA of 6.91, and above the 200-day MA of 7.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPRE.
Green Plains Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $905.46M | 17.05 | 10.68% | ― | -18.36% | -13.81% | |
65 Neutral | $1.14B | 19.89 | 4.77% | 3.04% | 2.64% | 66.43% | |
65 Neutral | $574.41M | 37.99 | 3.11% | 0.78% | -3.79% | -79.76% | |
61 Neutral | $10.10B | 5.97 | 1.14% | 3.00% | 3.04% | -41.02% | |
58 Neutral | $567.80M | ― | -18.95% | ― | -15.66% | -237.12% | |
51 Neutral | $444.98M | ― | -11.71% | ― | 341.75% | 20.16% | |
46 Neutral | $80.49M | ― | -28.22% | ― | -12.70% | -74.32% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GPRE
Green Plains
8.66
-5.52
-38.93%
GEVO
Gevo
1.84
1.09
145.33%
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
1.04
-0.39
-27.27%
REX
Rex American
54.98
7.98
16.98%
SCL
Stepan Company
50.37
-23.38
-31.70%
OEC
Orion Engineered
10.68
-6.30
-37.10%
Green Plains Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Green Plains Approves All Matters at Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025
On June 6, 2025, Green Plains Inc. held its annual shareholder meeting where all proposed matters were approved, including the election of eight directors and the ratification of KPMG LLP as the independent public accountants for 2025. Alain Treuer and Ejnar Knudsen III did not stand for re-election, ending their terms as directors without any disagreements with the company.
The most recent analyst rating on (GPRE) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Plains stock, see the GPRE Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.