Green Plains (GPRE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $970.76M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: -12.07%
• EPS Growth: -821.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 923
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 69,838,844
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,874,082
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,610,919
• PEG Ratio: -0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.34
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 33.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 41.45
• 1Y Price Target: $14.33
• Price Target Upside: 3.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.00 ▲(15.11% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/06/26

GPRE scores mid-range mainly because financial performance remains constrained by declining revenue and persistent net losses, despite improved 2025 cash flow and lower debt. Technicals are a clear positive with strong uptrend signals, while valuation is weakened by negative earnings and no dividend yield data. The earnings call adds support via improved Q4 profitability and strong 2026 carbon-related EBITDA outlook, tempered by monetization and leverage-related risks.

Positive Factors

Carbon capture monetization

Bringing CO2 compression online and sequestering CO2 creates a new, high-margin cash stream tied to low-CI ethanol. Management's $188M 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate signals a structural shift in revenue mix, diversifying earnings away from commodity ethanol margins and improving long-term cash generation.

Higher production capacity & record yields

A 10% capacity upgrade plus record plant yields reflects durable operational improvement and better throughput economics. Higher normalized gallons and improved conversion efficiency increase operating leverage, support consistent supply to customers, and enhance the company's long-run margin potential.

Improved cash flow and lower near-term leverage

The shift to positive operating and free cash flow alongside a meaningful debt reduction materially improves liquidity and financial flexibility. This strengthens the company's ability to fund sustaining capex, service obligations, and invest in carbon projects without relying on dilutive financing over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Volatile revenue and persistent losses

Structural revenue volatility and recurring negative net margins constrain reinvestment and make earnings sensitive to commodity cycles. Until top-line stability and consistent net profitability are achieved, balance-sheet improvements and carbon gains could be offset by underlying demand and price swings.

Dependence on 45Z credit monetization

A material portion of projected EBITDA relies on selling 45Z tax credits and voluntary credits. Execution, counterparty appetite, contract terms and pricing discounts create structural cash-flow and earnings timing risk; adverse terms would materially reduce the expected carbon-related contribution.

Outstanding convertible notes and future cash obligations

The $60M 2027 convertibles represent a known medium-term cash obligation that will require liquidity or refinancing. Combined with remaining leverage, this obligation could constrain capital allocation choices or force refinancing in tougher markets, limiting strategic flexibility over the next 2–3 years.

Green Plains Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Green Plains Inc. produces, markets, and distributes ethanol in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Ethanol Production, Agribusiness and Energy Services, and Partnership. The Ethanol Production segment produces and sells ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil. The Agribusiness and Energy Services segment engages in the grain procurement, handling, and storage activities; and commodity marketing business, which purchases, markets, sells, and distributes ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil, as well as grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. This segment also provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The Partnership segment offers fuel storage and transportation services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through 29 ethanol storage facilities; 4 fuel terminal facilities; and a fleet of approximately 2,300 leased railcars. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

How the Company Makes Money

Green Plains generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of ethanol, which is used as a renewable fuel source and oxygenate for gasoline. The company operates several ethanol production facilities, which convert corn and other feedstocks into ethanol and distillers grains. Key revenue streams include the sale of ethanol to fuel blenders and refiners, as well as the sale of distillers grains as animal feed. Additionally, Green Plains earns income from grain storage and handling services, leveraging its infrastructure to facilitate the movement of agricultural products. Strategic partnerships with agricultural producers and renewable energy stakeholders enhance its market position and facilitate growth. The company's focus on operational efficiency and sustainability also contributes to its earnings potential.

Green Plains Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are improving but still weak overall. Revenue has been volatile and recently down (2025 ~-7%), and the company has sustained multi-year net losses with a 2025 net margin around -5.8% and an operating loss. Offsetting this, 2025 operating cash flow (~$111M) and free cash flow (~$74M) turned positive and debt declined meaningfully (about $649M to $508M), supporting liquidity and flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile and trending down recently (2025 down ~7% after declines in 2024 and 2023), signaling a challenging demand/pricing backdrop. Profitability remains weak: net losses persisted across the entire period shown (2020–2025), with 2025 net margin around -5.8%. While EBITDA stayed slightly positive in most years (except 2020), operating results are still negative in the latest year (2025 operating loss), indicating the business has not translated scale into consistent earnings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable overall, with debt-to-equity around ~0.75–0.91 in 2020–2024 and total debt declining meaningfully in 2025 versus 2024 (about $649M to $508M). Equity remains substantial (roughly $766M in 2025), supporting balance sheet flexibility. The key weakness is continued losses, reflected in consistently negative returns on equity in the years where provided (2020–2024), which can pressure book value and limit financial optionality if the downturn persists.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved sharply in 2025 with positive operating cash flow (~$111M) and positive free cash flow (~$74M), a notable turnaround from 2024 when both were negative (operating cash flow about -$30M and free cash flow about -$125M). However, free cash flow has been unstable over time (mostly negative from 2021–2024), and the sharp year-to-year swings raise execution and cyclicality risk. Free cash flow being positive while net income is negative in 2025 suggests non-cash charges and/or working-capital benefits helped cash results, which may not be fully repeatable.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.09B	2.46B	3.30B	3.66B	2.83B
Gross Profit	38.49M	130.45M	164.75M	112.68M	179.00M
EBITDA	31.29M	52.38M	53.60M	26.64M	116.09M
Net Income	-121.28M	-82.50M	-93.38M	-127.22M	-65.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.58B	1.78B	1.94B	2.12B	2.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	182.32M	173.04M	349.57M	444.66M	551.08M
Total Debt	508.35M	649.31M	676.51M	711.00M	789.32M
Total Liabilities	806.42M	907.64M	949.27M	1.06B	1.06B
Stockholders Equity	766.25M	865.22M	843.73M	910.03M	950.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	64.44M	-125.05M	-51.75M	-142.66M	-182.95M
Operating Cash Flow	101.64M	-29.96M	56.35M	69.71M	4.25M
Investing Cash Flow	162.13M	-62.05M	-106.90M	-105.25M	-236.28M
Financing Cash Flow	-243.04M	-77.35M	-70.96M	-25.14M	518.19M

Green Plains Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.22, above the 50-day MA of 11.51, and above the 200-day MA of 9.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPRE.

Green Plains Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	78 Outperform	$1.13B	22.96	8.89%	―	-3.10%	-22.31%
SCL	66 Neutral	$1.19B	26.13	3.67%	3.33%	5.35%	-1.43%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ALTO	59 Neutral	$186.40M	-3.46	-20.64%	―	-8.00%	-35.86%
GPRE	58 Neutral	$970.76M	-7.32	-14.87%	―	-12.07%	-821.68%
OEC	50 Neutral	$313.44M	-4.44	-7.24%	1.61%	-4.31%	-206.57%
GEVO	48 Neutral	$443.43M	-9.51	-9.27%	―	675.75%	42.00%

Green Plains Corporate Events

Green Plains Appoints Ryan Loneman as General Counsel

On January 12, 2026, Green Plains Inc. announced it had appointed Ryan Loneman as General Counsel and Secretary, effective January 26, 2026, expanding its leadership team and placing him in charge of the company’s legal function as a key advisor on corporate governance, strategic transactions, and regulatory matters. Loneman’s extensive background in corporate law, including senior legal roles at Lindsay Corporation, prior experience as Vice President and General Counsel at Signal Security, and practice at Kirkland & Ellis, is expected to strengthen Green Plains’ governance and compliance capabilities, supporting its long-term growth strategy and reinforcing its positioning in the renewable fuels and low-carbon biofuels industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPRE) stock is a Hold with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Plains stock, see the GPRE Stock Forecast page.

Green Plains Appoints New Chief Financial Officer

On January 5, 2026, Green Plains Inc. announced the appointment of Ann Reis as Chief Financial Officer, effective January 6, 2026, marking a key change in its senior leadership team. Reis, who previously served as CFO, Chief Accounting Officer and Assistant Secretary of the Board at Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy, brings more than 20 years of experience in agribusiness, energy and financial services, and is expected to support Green Plains’ long-term growth strategy and focus on operational excellence. The leadership transition follows the departure of long-serving finance executive Phil Boggs on January 5, 2026, underscoring a strategic refresh of the company’s financial leadership as it continues to advance its low-carbon, renewable fuels and ingredients platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPRE) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Plains stock, see the GPRE Stock Forecast page.