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Green Plains (GPRE)
NASDAQ:GPRE
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Green Plains
(NASDAQ:GPRE)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▼(-10.50%Downside)
Positive Factors
Cost Savings
GPRE has already executed against $45mm in annualized cost savings and paused its Clean Sugar plant, saving $10mm annually.
Ethanol Margins
The outlook for ethanol margins has improved, with positive EBITDA in forward curves, with contributions from higher corn oil values ahead of anticipated increases to RVO, inventory draw down due to maintenance, stronger blending demand, and large expected corn harvest.
Potential Returns
There is potential for strong returns if the company’s initiatives, particularly the carbon capture project, succeed.
Negative Factors
Leadership Uncertainty
The long-time President and CEO of Green Plains Inc. has departed the company, which may create uncertainty about the company's future leadership.
Macroeconomic Risks
The downgrading of Green Plains to Neutral is due to increased risks from a deteriorating macro environment and emerging trade war.
Market Fundamentals
GPRE faced challenging ethanol market fundamentals owing to elevated production and inventory levels.
Green Plains (GPRE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$539.55M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth-19.82%
EPS Growth-34.91%
CountryUS
Employees923
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength72
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.14
Shares Outstanding65,399,450
10 Day Avg. Volume1,447,780
30 Day Avg. Volume1,791,586
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)0.46
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-2.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.00Price Target Upside-16.47% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
Green Plains Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGreen Plains Inc. (GPRE) is a publicly traded biorefining company that operates within the renewable energy sector. The company focuses on producing and marketing ethanol, distillers grains, and corn oil, alongside offering agribusiness services. Based in Omaha, Nebraska, Green Plains utilizes an integrated approach to develop sustainable solutions in biofuels and related industries.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreen Plains generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of ethanol, which is its core product. The company operates several biorefineries where it processes corn into ethanol, a renewable fuel additive used to enhance octane and reduce emissions in gasoline. In addition to ethanol, Green Plains produces distillers grains, a high-protein livestock feed, and corn oil, which is sold for use in biodiesel production and as a feed ingredient. The company also engages in agribusiness activities, providing grain storage and commodity marketing services. Key revenue streams include sales of these products to domestic and international markets. Partnerships with agricultural producers and fuel distributors, along with market demand for renewable energy, significantly contribute to Green Plains' earnings.
Green Plains Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Ethanol Gallons Sold
Measures the volume of ethanol sold, indicating the company's market share in the biofuel industry and its ability to meet demand for renewable energy sources.
Measures the volume of ethanol sold, indicating the company's market share in the biofuel industry and its ability to meet demand for renewable energy sources.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataGreen Plains Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 122.28%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Green Plains is taking significant steps to improve operational efficiencies and reduce costs, which are showing positive impacts on their future outlook. However, the company is still facing challenges, including a substantial net loss, high SG&A expenses, and liquidity concerns. While there are promising developments in cost reduction and market outlook, the financial losses and operational challenges present a mixed picture.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Cost Reductions
Green Plains has committed to $50 million in cost reductions, achieving $45 million so far, with a clear line of sight to the remaining $5 million. SG&A run rate is expected to decline from $118 million in 2024 to $93 million by year-end 2025.
Operational Efficiency Improvements
Achieved a record 100% utilization rate across nine operating plants, with an overall reduction in OpEx per gallon of more than 3¢ since Q4 of 2024.
Strengthened Ethanol Market Outlook
Q2 crush margins are strengthening, with more than half of Q2 margins secured at favorable levels. Ethanol exports expected to surpass last year's record of nearly 2 billion gallons.
Enhanced Protein Business
Commercial shipments of sequenced protein increased from 20,000 tons in 2024 to over 80,000 tons expected in 2025, with new markets in South America and the pet food segment.
Negative Updates
Net Loss Reported
Reported a net loss of $72.9 million for Q1 2025, including $16.6 million in one-time restructuring charges, compared to a net loss of $51.4 million in Q1 2024.
Challenges in Clean Sugar Technology
Paused the clean sugar technology initiative in Shenandoah due to wastewater challenges and commercial development timing, resulting in a temporary shift to maximize ethanol production.
High SG&A Expenses
SG&A expenses totaled $42.9 million, up $11.1 million from the prior year due to restructuring and severance charges.
Liquidity Concerns
Cash balance decreased from $209 million in Q4 2024 to $126.6 million in Q1 2025, leading to a need for additional asset sales and new credit facilities.
Company Guidance
During the Green Plains Inc. First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics regarding their financial guidance and operational improvements. Green Plains is on track to achieve $50 million in cost reductions, having already realized $45 million in savings, which includes $30 million in annualized cost savings and $15 million from an ethanol marketing partnership. The company anticipates reducing their consolidated SG&A run rate from $118 million in 2024 to approximately $93 million by year-end, with corporate and trade functions expected to drop to the low $40 million range annually. Operational improvements were highlighted, such as achieving a record 100% utilization rate across nine plants and reducing OpEx per gallon by more than 3¢ since Q4 2024. Looking ahead, with improvements in ethanol crush margins, the company projects a positive EBITDA for the remainder of the year, indicating a focus on returning to sustained profitability.Green Plains Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Green Plains faces significant financial challenges with declining revenue and negative profit margins. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, but ongoing net losses and negative cash flow highlight poor financial health.Income Statement
Green Plains has experienced declining revenue with a TTM revenue of $2.46 billion compared to $3.66 billion in 2022. Gross profit margin decreased from 5.55% in 2022 to 5.08% TTM, and net profit margin worsened to -4.22% TTM. Consistently negative EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate operational challenges.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.80 TTM, reflecting moderate leverage. However, a declining equity ratio from 42.86% in 2022 to 47.86% TTM indicates a decreasing reliance on equity financing. Return on equity remains negative due to consistent net losses.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Green Plains shows negative free cash flow growth, with TTM free cash flow at -$124.41 million, indicating cash management issues. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, signaling inefficiencies in converting profits into cash flows.40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.45B | 2.46B | 3.30B | 3.66B | 2.83B | 1.92B |
| Gross Profit | 125.12M | 130.45M | 164.75M | 137.84M | 287.45M | 111.56M |
| EBITDA | 32.44M | 52.38M | 53.60M | 26.22M | 116.09M | -42.89M |
| Net Income | -103.99M | -82.50M | -93.38M | -127.22M | -65.99M | -108.78M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.67B | 1.78B | 1.94B | 2.12B | 2.16B | 1.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 98.61M | 173.04M | 349.57M | 444.66M | 551.08M | 233.86M |
| Total Debt | 637.39M | 649.31M | 676.51M | 711.00M | 789.32M | 590.61M |
| Total Liabilities | 859.38M | 907.64M | 949.27M | 1.06B | 1.06B | 802.25M |
| Stockholders Equity | 797.51M | 865.22M | 843.73M | 910.03M | 950.50M | 646.85M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -124.41M | -125.05M | -51.75M | -142.66M | -182.95M | -11.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -34.41M | -29.96M | 56.35M | 69.71M | 4.25M | 98.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -52.56M | -62.05M | -106.90M | -105.25M | -236.28M | -11.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -63.81M | -77.35M | -70.96M | -25.14M | 518.19M | -82.53M |
Green Plains Technical Analysis
Positive
8.38
Price Trends
5.75
Positive
5.11
Positive
7.59
Positive
Market Momentum
0.77
Negative
85.22
Negative
83.47
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.22, above the 50-day MA of 5.75, and above the 200-day MA of 7.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 85.22 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPRE.
Green Plains Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (70)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | ¥182.08B | 11.12 | 6.29% | 3.22% | 3.93% | 3.23% | |
70 Neutral | $1.29B | 23.32 | 4.65% | 2.65% | -0.16% | 47.70% | |
69 Neutral | $909.08M | 17.12 | 10.68% | ― | -18.36% | -13.81% | |
68 Neutral | $626.84M | 24.44 | 5.55% | ― | -2.31% | -69.16% | |
56 Neutral | $539.55M | ― | -12.34% | ― | -19.82% | -34.91% | |
56 Neutral | $371.32M | ― | -16.11% | ― | 145.38% | -22.02% | |
52 Neutral | $95.74M | ― | -24.43% | ― | -17.27% | -112.62% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GPRE
Green Plains
8.38
-9.21
-52.36%
GEVO
Gevo
1.55
0.94
154.10%
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
1.24
-0.32
-20.51%
REX
Rex American
55.20
6.66
13.72%
SCL
Stepan Company
57.79
-30.70
-34.69%
OEC
Orion Engineered
11.52
-12.52
-52.08%
Green Plains Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Green Plains Approves All Matters at Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025
On June 6, 2025, Green Plains Inc. held its annual shareholder meeting where all proposed matters were approved, including the election of eight directors and the ratification of KPMG LLP as the independent public accountants for 2025. Alain Treuer and Ejnar Knudsen III did not stand for re-election, ending their terms as directors without any disagreements with the company.
The most recent analyst rating on (GPRE) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Plains stock, see the GPRE Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.