Green Plains (GPRE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $721.87M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.86M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: -15.66%
• EPS Growth: -237.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 923
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -1.09
• Shares Outstanding: 65,565,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,484,635
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,863,100
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.70
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 34.88
• 1Y Price Target: $10.00
• Price Target Upside: -10.31% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(3.14% Upside)

Green Plains faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and persistent losses weighing heavily on its overall score. However, strong technical momentum and positive corporate events provide some optimism. The mixed earnings call sentiment and valuation concerns further moderate the overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Cost savings

GPRE has already executed against $45mm in annualized cost savings YTD (out of $50mm target).

Ethanol margins outlook

The outlook for ethanol margins has improved, with positive EBITDA in forward curves, with contributions from higher corn oil values ahead of anticipated increases to RVO, inventory draw down due to maintenance, stronger blending demand, and large expected corn harvest.

Regulatory developments

Regulatory developments have been positive for Green Plains' carbon capture platform.

Negative Factors

Ethanol market fundamentals

GPRE faced challenging ethanol market fundamentals owing to elevated production and inventory levels.

Financial position and risks

Given Green Plains' vulnerable financial position, the increased uncertainty does not support a Buy rating anymore.

Stock valuation

The company's stock price is higher than the price objective, indicating potential overvaluation.

Green Plains Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Green Plains Inc. produces, markets, and distributes ethanol in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Ethanol Production, Agribusiness and Energy Services, and Partnership. The Ethanol Production segment produces and sells ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil. The Agribusiness and Energy Services segment engages in the grain procurement, handling, and storage activities; and commodity marketing business, which purchases, markets, sells, and distributes ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil, as well as grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. This segment also provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The Partnership segment offers fuel storage and transportation services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through 29 ethanol storage facilities; 4 fuel terminal facilities; and a fleet of approximately 2,300 leased railcars. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

How the Company Makes Money

Green Plains generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the production and sale of ethanol, which is a renewable fuel used in transportation. The company operates a network of ethanol production facilities that convert corn into ethanol, capturing the value from both ethanol and its co-products, such as distillers grains (used as animal feed) and corn oil (used in biodiesel production). Additionally, Green Plains earns income from its marketing and distribution services, which involve selling ethanol and its co-products to various customers, including fuel blenders and livestock feed suppliers. Strategic partnerships with agricultural producers, fuel companies, and renewable energy firms enhance its market reach and operational efficiency. Furthermore, the company is increasingly focusing on innovation in renewable energy technologies, which may provide additional revenue opportunities as the market for sustainable energy continues to grow.

Green Plains Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Green Plains is experiencing financial difficulties, with declining revenues and persistent losses impacting profitability. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, but negative returns on equity highlight the need for strategic improvements. Cash flow management is a concern, with negative free cash flow growth and volatility in cash flow ratios.

Income Statement

Green Plains has faced declining revenue over the recent periods, with a negative revenue growth rate of -2.68% in the TTM. The gross profit margin has decreased to 3.52%, indicating pressure on profitability. The net profit margin is negative at -6.34%, reflecting ongoing losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.78, which is moderate but indicates some leverage. Return on equity is negative at -18.28%, showing that the company is not generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall balance sheet suggests a need for improved profitability and asset management.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive, but free cash flow remains negative, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is unusually high due to negative net income, suggesting volatility in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.40B	2.46B	3.30B	3.66B	2.83B	1.92B
Gross Profit	128.87M	130.45M	164.75M	137.84M	179.00M	85.43M
EBITDA	24.76M	50.62M	53.60M	26.22M	116.09M	-42.89M
Net Income	-151.88M	-82.50M	-93.38M	-127.22M	-65.99M	-108.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.61B	1.78B	1.94B	2.12B	2.16B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	152.72M	173.04M	349.57M	444.66M	551.08M	233.86M
Total Debt	610.31M	649.31M	676.51M	711.00M	789.32M	590.61M
Total Liabilities	872.08M	907.64M	949.27M	1.06B	1.06B	802.25M
Stockholders Equity	735.18M	865.22M	843.73M	910.03M	950.50M	646.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-43.95M	-125.05M	-51.75M	-142.66M	-182.95M	-11.68M
Operating Cash Flow	39.51M	-29.96M	56.35M	69.71M	4.25M	98.89M
Investing Cash Flow	-38.89M	-62.05M	-106.90M	-105.25M	-236.28M	-11.45M
Financing Cash Flow	-72.99M	-77.35M	-70.96M	-25.14M	518.19M	-82.53M

Green Plains Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.15
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.23, above the 50-day MA of 8.20, and above the 200-day MA of 7.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.23 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPRE.

Green Plains Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	75 Outperform	$1.03B	20.88	9.47%	―	-9.57%	-24.85%
SCL	67 Neutral	$1.11B	19.34	4.77%	3.11%	2.64%	66.43%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.27B	6.37	0.76%	2.91%	3.10%	-36.03%
GPRE	59 Neutral	$721.87M	―	-18.95%	―	-15.66%	-237.12%
GEVO	58 Neutral	$394.20M	―	-11.71%	―	341.75%	20.16%
OEC	48 Neutral	$579.46M	37.39	3.11%	0.80%	-3.79%	-79.76%
ALTO	48 Neutral	$89.01M	―	-28.22%	―	-12.70%	-74.32%

Green Plains Corporate Events

Green Plains Sells Ethanol Plant for $190 Million

On August 22, 2025, Green Plains Obion LLC, a subsidiary of Green Plains Inc., entered into an agreement to sell its ethanol plant in Rives, Tennessee, to POET Refining – Obion, LLC for $190 million in cash. This sale, representing 13% of the company’s ethanol production capacity, is expected to close in the third quarter of 2025 and will help retire junior mezzanine debt due in 2026, enhancing the company’s liquidity. Additionally, Green Plains announced the conclusion of its strategic review process, determining that the company is best positioned to deliver shareholder value by continuing its current strategy under existing leadership.

Green Plains Appoints Chris Osowski as New CEO

On August 19, 2025, Green Plains Inc. announced the appointment of Chris Osowski as the new Chief Executive Officer and member of the Board of Directors. Osowski, who has over 20 years of global leadership experience in the chemical, agribusiness, and renewable energy sectors, previously served as the company’s Executive Vice President of Operations and Technology. The appointment is expected to drive the next phase of growth and innovation for Green Plains, focusing on operational excellence and long-term value creation. The company also announced Trent Collins as Senior Vice President of Operations, further strengthening its leadership team.

Green Plains Approves All Matters at Shareholder Meeting

On June 6, 2025, Green Plains Inc. held its annual shareholder meeting where all proposed matters were approved, including the election of eight directors and the ratification of KPMG LLP as the independent public accountants for 2025. Alain Treuer and Ejnar Knudsen III did not stand for re-election, ending their terms as directors without any disagreements with the company.