Green Plains (GPRE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $388.47M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.66M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: -19.82%
• EPS Growth: -34.91%
• Country: US
• Employees: 923
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 61
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -1.14
• Shares Outstanding: 65,399,450
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,487,130
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,658,788
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.34
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.24
• 1Y Price Target: $6.17
• Price Target Upside: 2.32% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▼(-8.79%Downside)

The overall score reflects Green Plains' financial struggles and operational challenges, offset by recent operational improvements and strong technical momentum. However, valuation concerns and persistent financial hurdles remain major risks.

Positive Factors

Earnings

GPRE has already executed against $45mm in annualized cost savings, contributing positively to its financial performance.

Ethanol Margins

The outlook for ethanol margins has improved, with positive EBITDA in forward curves due to higher corn oil values and expected increases in blending demand.

Strategic Initiatives

The startup of the Tallgrass Trailblazer CO2 line and improved Nebraska plant economics could boost interest in Green Plains Inc. ahead of the CCUS program.

Negative Factors

Financial Position

Given Green Plains' vulnerable financial position, increased uncertainty does not support a Buy rating anymore.

Leadership Changes

The departure of the longtime President and CEO of Green Plains Inc. may create uncertainty about the company's future leadership.

Market Fundamentals

GPRE faced challenging ethanol market fundamentals owing to elevated production and inventory levels.

Green Plains Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Green Plains Inc. produces, markets, and distributes ethanol in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Ethanol Production, Agribusiness and Energy Services, and Partnership. The Ethanol Production segment produces and sells ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil. The Agribusiness and Energy Services segment engages in the grain procurement, handling, and storage activities; and commodity marketing business, which purchases, markets, sells, and distributes ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil, as well as grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. This segment also provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The Partnership segment offers fuel storage and transportation services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through 29 ethanol storage facilities; 4 fuel terminal facilities; and a fleet of approximately 2,300 leased railcars. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

How the Company Makes Money

Green Plains generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of ethanol, which is its core product. The company operates several biorefineries where it processes corn into ethanol, a renewable fuel additive used to enhance octane and reduce emissions in gasoline. In addition to ethanol, Green Plains produces distillers grains, a high-protein livestock feed, and corn oil, which is sold for use in biodiesel production and as a feed ingredient. The company also engages in agribusiness activities, providing grain storage and commodity marketing services. Key revenue streams include sales of these products to domestic and international markets. Partnerships with agricultural producers and fuel distributors, along with market demand for renewable energy, significantly contribute to Green Plains' earnings.

Green Plains Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Green Plains faces significant financial challenges with declining revenue and negative profit margins. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, but ongoing net losses and negative cash flow highlight poor financial health.

Income Statement

Green Plains has experienced declining revenue with a TTM revenue of $2.46 billion compared to $3.66 billion in 2022. Gross profit margin decreased from 5.55% in 2022 to 5.08% TTM, and net profit margin worsened to -4.22% TTM. Consistently negative EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.80 TTM, reflecting moderate leverage. However, a declining equity ratio from 42.86% in 2022 to 47.86% TTM indicates a decreasing reliance on equity financing. Return on equity remains negative due to consistent net losses.

Cash Flow

Green Plains shows negative free cash flow growth, with TTM free cash flow at -$124.41 million, indicating cash management issues. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, signaling inefficiencies in converting profits into cash flows.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.45B	2.46B	3.30B	3.66B	2.83B	1.92B
Gross Profit	125.12M	130.45M	164.75M	137.84M	287.45M	111.56M
EBITDA	32.44M	52.38M	53.60M	26.22M	116.09M	-42.89M
Net Income	-103.99M	-82.50M	-93.38M	-127.22M	-65.99M	-108.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.67B	1.78B	1.94B	2.12B	2.16B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	98.61M	173.04M	349.57M	444.66M	551.08M	233.86M
Total Debt	637.39M	649.31M	676.51M	711.00M	789.32M	590.61M
Total Liabilities	859.38M	907.64M	949.27M	1.06B	1.06B	802.25M
Stockholders Equity	797.51M	865.22M	843.73M	910.03M	950.50M	646.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-124.41M	-125.05M	-51.75M	-142.66M	-182.95M	-11.68M
Operating Cash Flow	-34.41M	-29.96M	56.35M	69.71M	4.25M	98.89M
Investing Cash Flow	-52.56M	-62.05M	-106.90M	-105.25M	-236.28M	-11.45M
Financing Cash Flow	-63.81M	-77.35M	-70.96M	-25.14M	518.19M	-82.53M

Green Plains Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.10, above the 50-day MA of 4.50, and below the 200-day MA of 8.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.94 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPRE.

Green Plains Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HDSN	71 Outperform	$348.72M	21.85	7.24%	―	-18.00%	-61.95%
BIOX	62 Neutral	$281.57M	193.48	-3.00%	―	-13.98%	-403.56%
LXU	55 Neutral	$564.96M	―	-5.28%	―	-4.23%	-259.01%
ALTO	53 Neutral	$88.02M	―	-24.43%	―	-17.27%	-112.62%
GEVO	53 Neutral	$306.64M	―	-16.11%	―	145.38%	-22.02%
GPRE	52 Neutral	$388.47M	―	-12.34%	―	-19.82%	-34.91%
Sector *	43 Neutral	AU$1.38B	-6.07	-40.62%	4.17%	-4.78%	-42.91%

Green Plains Corporate Events

Green Plains Approves All Matters at Shareholder Meeting

On June 6, 2025, Green Plains Inc. held its annual shareholder meeting where all proposed matters were approved, including the election of eight directors and the ratification of KPMG LLP as the independent public accountants for 2025. Alain Treuer and Ejnar Knudsen III did not stand for re-election, ending their terms as directors without any disagreements with the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPRE) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Plains stock, see the GPRE Stock Forecast page.

Green Plains Expands Board with New Directors

On April 11, 2025, Green Plains Inc. entered into a Cooperation Agreement with Ancora Holdings Group, outlining changes to its Board of Directors and forming a Strategic Planning Committee to enhance shareholder value. By April 14, 2025, Green Plains appointed three new independent directors, Steven Furcich, Carl Grassi, and Patrick Sweeney, to its board, expanding it to ten members. These appointments, part of a board refreshment strategy, aim to leverage their expertise in agriculture, finance, and strategic transactions. The Cooperation Agreement with Ancora includes provisions for board composition and voting commitments, supporting Green Plains’ strategic initiatives and collaboration with Ancora.