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Green Plains (GPRE)
NASDAQ:GPRE
Earnings Data
Report Date
May 04, 2026Before Open (Confirmed)
Period Ending
2026 (Q1)Consensus EPS Forecast
-0.05Last Year’s EPS
-1.14Same Quarter Last Year
Moderate Buy
Based on 6 Analysts Ratings
Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
Overall the call presented a positive operational and financial turnaround: the company moved from a prior-year loss to Q4 profitability, materially improved adjusted EBITDA, brought carbon capture online (driving cash and an estimated $188M of carbon-related EBITDA for 2026), raised stated production capacity by 10%, and refinanced near-term debt while maintaining healthy liquidity. Key risks and negatives include a 26.6% YoY revenue decline in Q4 driven by asset sales and idling, cash timing for carbon receipts, remaining debt and compression liabilities on the balance sheet (~$504M total debt), uncertainty in monetization discounts for 45Z credits, and some commodity/operational headwinds (protein price pressure, weather-related interruptions). On balance, the highlights — especially carbon monetization, operational gains, and balance sheet refinancings — outweigh the lowlights.Company Guidance
Operational Performance and Record Yields
Four plants reached historical production volumes and seven plants achieved record ethanol yields in 2025; fleet generated volumes above prior stated capacities, driving improved throughput and efficiency.
Production Capacity Re-statement
Company increased its stated production capacity (excluding Fairmont) to 730 million gallons/year, a 10% increase over the previous stated capacity. Notable plant capacity changes: Central City and Wood River to 120M gal/yr each, Mount Vernon to 110M, Madison to 100M, Shenandoah to 80M, Otter Tail and Superior to 70M each, and York from 50M to 60M.
Carbon Capture Operational and Financial Progress
CO2 compression equipment at three Nebraska plants became fully operational in Q4 with five compressors online capturing >90% of CO2; CO2 is being sequestered in Wyoming which lowers CI scores and is already generating cash flow. Management estimates carbon-related EBITDA of at least $188 million for 2026 (subject to volumes and CI factors), including ~ $150M from Nebraska (inclusive of voluntary credits) and ~$38M from other low-CI plants.
Strong Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Turnaround
Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $49.1 million versus negative $18.2 million in Q4 2024 — an improvement of more than $67 million year-over-year, reflecting operational execution, cost discipline, and early carbon monetization.
Net Income Improvement
Q4 2025 reported net income attributable to Green Plains of $11.9 million ($0.17 per diluted share) versus a Q4 2024 net loss of $54.9 million (−$0.86 per diluted share), representing a material swing to profitability.
Tax Credit Realizations and Initial Cash Receipts
45Z clean fuel production tax credits generated $27.7 million in the quarter (net of discounts) and the company received its first payment for transferred credits; management reports active marketing interest for 2026 credits and anticipates an announcement soon.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Improvements
Refinanced the majority of 2027 convertible notes with a new $200M convertible due 2030 and used $30M of that to repurchase ~2.9M shares; company reports no near-term debt maturities. Consolidated liquidity at quarter-end: $230.1M in cash and equivalents and $325M revolver availability. Federal NOL balance of $260.2M for future tax efficiency.
Cost Reductions and Expense Guidance
Q4 SG&A was $22.9M, down $2.8M YoY. Management expects a consolidated SG&A run rate in the low $90M for 2026, an improvement of more than $25M versus 2024. Q4 interest expense was $6.1M, down $1.6M YoY; 2026 interest expense guidance is $30–35M.
Market Fundamentals and Hedging
Ethanol exports remain strong, a record corn crop is keeping feedstock costs in check, corn oil values improved versus last year, and management has hedged a significant portion of Q1 production margin — supporting resilient ethanol margins.
GPRE Earnings History
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat
Missed
GPRE Earnings-Related Price Changes
Report Date | Price 1 Day Before | Price 1 Day After | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Feb 05, 2026 | $12.60 | $12.66 | +0.48% |
Oct 27, 2025 | $11.15 | $10.63 | -4.66% |
Aug 11, 2025 | $7.40 | $8.84 | +19.39% |
May 08, 2025 | $3.77 | $3.83 | +1.72% |
Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.
FAQ
When does Green Plains (GPRE) report earnings?
Green Plains (GPRE) is schdueled to report earning on May 04, 2026, Before Open (Confirmed).
What is Green Plains (GPRE) earnings time?
Green Plains (GPRE) earnings time is at May 04, 2026, Before Open (Confirmed).
Where can I see when companies are reporting earnings?
You can see which companies are reporting today on our designated earnings calendar.
What companies are reporting earnings today?
You can see a list of the companies which are reporting today on TipRanks earnings calendar.
What is GPRE EPS forecast?
GPRE EPS forecast for the fiscal quarter 2026 (Q1) is -0.05.