Gevo (GEVO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $444.98M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.41M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.02
• Revenue Growth: 341.75%
• EPS Growth: 20.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 122
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 241,839,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 13,631,614
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,409,112
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.82
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -14.20
• 1Y Price Target: $5.83
• Price Target Upside: 216.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(8.70% Upside)

Gevo's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its strong revenue growth and strategic advancements, such as the 45Z tax credit. However, ongoing profitability challenges and negative cash flows weigh heavily on the score. Recent corporate events have provided some positive momentum, but valuation concerns and technical uncertainties remain significant.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The company positively surprised the street with a positive adjusted EBITDA and net profit for the quarter.

Tax Incentives

The company is positioned to benefit from the extension of the 45Z tax credit for biofuel producers, which could strengthen its financial position.

Negative Factors

Market Reaction

The after-hours reaction to the company's 2Q25 results and earnings call is indicative of a potential re-rating of the stock by the market to align with a demonstrated diversification in revenues, cash flows, balance sheet and an outlook supported by positive regulations.

Underutilized Opportunities

The company's Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) opportunity remains underutilized, with management indicating potential for this segment to grow from $3-5M in 2025 and exceed $30M in future years.

Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gevo, Inc. is a renewable chemicals and advanced biofuels company based in the United States, focused on producing sustainable alternatives to traditional fossil fuels. The company operates primarily in the bioenergy sector, utilizing proprietary technology to convert renewable resources, such as corn and other biomass, into low-carbon renewable fuels and chemicals. Gevo's core products include isobutanol, renewable gasoline, and other bio-based products that cater to various markets, including transportation and chemical manufacturing.

How the Company Makes Money

Gevo generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its biofuels and renewable chemicals to various industries. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of isobutanol, which serves as a platform chemical for the production of gasoline and other chemicals, along with other renewable fuels. Gevo has established strategic partnerships and agreements with major companies in the energy and chemical sectors, which not only provide a market for its products but also contribute to its revenue through joint ventures and collaborative projects. Additionally, Gevo may earn income from licensing its technology to other manufacturers, further expanding its revenue potential. The increasing demand for sustainable energy solutions and regulatory support for renewable fuels significantly bolster Gevo's earnings potential.

Gevo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Gevo shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability, as indicated by a negative net profit margin and negative cash flows. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but negative returns on equity highlight ongoing financial challenges.

Income Statement

Gevo's income statement shows significant revenue growth in the TTM period, with a 90.77% increase. However, the company is still facing substantial losses, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -72.76% and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The gross profit margin is positive at 27.49%, indicating some operational efficiency improvements. Overall, while revenue growth is promising, profitability remains a major concern.

Balance Sheet

Gevo's balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.008, indicating minimal leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -12.04%, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges. The equity ratio is robust, suggesting financial stability despite the negative ROE.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals negative operating and free cash flows, with a free cash flow growth rate of -18.31% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	80.19M	16.91M	17.20M	1.18M	533.00K	5.54M
Gross Profit	35.48M	4.91M	5.21M	-7.52M	-12.28M	-9.47M
EBITDA	-25.54M	-56.46M	-45.05M	-88.95M	-53.82M	-32.13M
Net Income	-58.35M	-78.64M	-66.22M	-98.01M	-59.38M	-40.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	702.12M	583.94M	650.32M	700.75M	666.48M	152.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	57.26M	189.39M	298.35M	404.53M	316.17M	78.34M
Total Debt	3.83M	70.62M	70.18M	69.69M	90.85M	1.27M
Total Liabilities	222.35M	94.45M	92.93M	95.27M	119.22M	5.72M
Stockholders Equity	474.10M	489.49M	557.39M	605.48M	547.25M	146.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-80.81M	-108.47M	-108.17M	-128.40M	-112.37M	-25.24M
Operating Cash Flow	-56.43M	-57.38M	-53.72M	-52.61M	-43.54M	-19.34M
Investing Cash Flow	-234.65M	-51.82M	114.13M	93.39M	-411.62M	-5.91M
Financing Cash Flow	102.66M	-7.36M	-189.00K	138.56M	512.85M	87.28M

Gevo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.84
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.44, above the 50-day MA of 1.38, and above the 200-day MA of 1.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.35 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEVO.

Gevo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	69 Neutral	$905.46M	17.05	10.68%	―	-18.36%	-13.81%
SCL	65 Neutral	$1.14B	19.89	4.77%	3.04%	2.64%	66.43%
GPRE	58 Neutral	$567.80M	―	-18.95%	―	-15.66%	-237.12%
KRO	54 Neutral	$708.73M	10.49	8.33%	3.25%	6.51%	3457.58%
GEVO	51 Neutral	$444.98M	―	-11.71%	―	341.75%	20.16%
ALTO	46 Neutral	$80.49M	―	-28.22%	―	-12.70%	-74.32%
Sector *	44 Neutral	AU$1.54B	-7.28	-22.76%	4.37%	-3.13%	-36.41%

Gevo Corporate Events

Gevo Strengthens Liquidity with New Bond Issuance

On July 10, 2025, Gevo announced the issuance of $40 million in new bonds by the Iowa Finance Authority to refinance part of its existing debt, enhancing its liquidity by approximately $30 million. This move is part of Gevo’s strategy to strengthen its balance sheet and expand its renewable natural gas operations, which have been certified for significant carbon emissions reductions, positioning the company as a leader in sustainable energy solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.

Gevo Secures $22M Tax Credit Agreement

On June 30, 2025, Gevo Intermediate HoldCo, LLC, a subsidiary of Gevo, Inc., entered into a Tax Credit Transfer Agreement with a bank to supply $22 million worth of Clean Fuel Production Credits from ethanol production in 2025. The agreement includes options for additional credits and provisions for termination under specific conditions, impacting Gevo’s operational strategy and positioning in the renewable energy market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.

Gevo Appoints New CFO and Expands Board

On May 21, 2025, Gevo, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where significant changes were approved, including an amendment to the 2010 Stock Incentive Plan, increasing authorized shares by 15 million and extending the plan’s term to 2035. Additionally, Oluwagbemileke Agiri was appointed as the new Chief Financial Officer, succeeding L. Lynn Smull, who transitioned to a senior advisory role. The Board also expanded to include Dr. James J. Barber as a new director, enhancing the company’s governance with his extensive experience in the energy and technology sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.