Gevo (GEVO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $306.64M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.97
• Revenue Growth: 145.38%
• EPS Growth: -22.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 122
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 61
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 239,562,990
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,733,139
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,456,276
• PEG Ratio: 1.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 21.99
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.10
• 1Y Price Target: $14.00
• Price Target Upside: 960.61% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▲(13.64%Upside)

Gevo's overall stock score is influenced primarily by its financial performance and earnings call. While there are positive developments in revenue growth and strategic initiatives, the persistent profitability and cash flow issues weigh heavily on the score. Technical factors are neutral, and valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

The sale of the Luverne facility is seen as a positive move for Gevo, as it is expected to lower operating costs by $3M annually.

Financial Performance

Gevo announced its 1Q25 results, with revenue of $29.1M compared to $4.0M in 1Q24, showing a 630% year-over-year increase.

Government Incentives

The company is expected to benefit from the extension of the 45Z tax credit, which supports producers of low-carbon fuels.

Negative Factors

Equity Dilution Risk

The $1.6B U.S. Department of Energy loan remains in play, and the company is working on closing this loan while arranging equity investors to limit dilution.

Market Valuation Concerns

Analyst believes the stock is undervalued relative to multiple catalysts, including potential growth from carbon capture initiatives.

Operational Challenges

The company is now meaningfully de-risked with respect to cash outflow expectations that were tied largely to progressing the Alcohol-to-Jet 60 (ATJ-60) initiative.

Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) is a renewable chemicals and advanced biofuels company focused on transforming renewable energy sources into low-carbon liquid transportation fuels. The company operates within the renewable energy and biotechnology sectors, specializing in the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable gasoline, and diesel. Gevo leverages its proprietary technology to convert carbohydrates, such as corn, into hydrocarbons, which are then used as sustainable alternatives to fossil-based fuels.

How the Company Makes Money

Gevo makes money by producing and selling renewable fuels and chemicals. Its primary revenue streams come from the sale of isobutanol, sustainable aviation fuel, and other renewable hydrocarbons. The company also generates revenue through strategic partnerships and licensing agreements that leverage its proprietary technology. Additionally, Gevo benefits from governmental incentives and subsidies aimed at promoting renewable energy and reducing carbon emissions, which can contribute to its overall earnings.

Gevo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Gevo's financial performance is mixed with strong revenue growth but ongoing profitability and cash flow challenges. The balance sheet shows financial stability, but improvements in operational efficiency are needed.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a significant revenue increase in the TTM with a gross profit margin of 26.57%, indicating improving profitability. However, persistent net losses and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest ongoing operational challenges. Despite a remarkable revenue growth rate, the lack of profitability remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a stable equity position with a moderate debt level. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.01, indicating low leverage. However, the equity ratio has decreased over time, reflecting increased liabilities. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability but lacks improvement in asset utilization.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates challenges, with negative free cash flow and deteriorating free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests operational struggles. Although financing activities have provided cash inflow, the negative cash flow from investing highlights capital expenditure pressure.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	42.03M	16.91M	17.20M	1.18M	711.00K	5.31M
Gross Profit	11.17M	4.91M	5.21M	-7.52M	-11.45M	-9.69M
EBITDA	-55.44M	-56.46M	-45.05M	-88.95M	-53.82M	-32.13M
Net Income	-81.49M	-78.64M	-66.22M	-118.58M	-59.38M	-39.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	677.80M	583.94M	650.32M	700.75M	666.48M	152.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	65.29M	189.39M	298.35M	404.53M	316.17M	78.34M
Total Debt	4.35M	70.62M	70.18M	69.69M	90.85M	1.27M
Total Liabilities	203.01M	94.45M	92.93M	95.27M	119.22M	5.72M
Stockholders Equity	469.84M	489.49M	557.39M	605.48M	547.25M	146.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-98.93M	-108.47M	-108.17M	-128.40M	-112.37M	-25.24M
Operating Cash Flow	-65.35M	-57.38M	-53.72M	-52.61M	-43.54M	-19.34M
Investing Cash Flow	-238.60M	-51.82M	114.13M	93.39M	-411.62M	-5.91M
Financing Cash Flow	98.33M	-7.36M	-189.00K	138.56M	512.85M	87.28M

Gevo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.32
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.25, above the 50-day MA of 1.19, and below the 200-day MA of 1.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEVO.

Gevo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	72 Outperform	$812.08M	15.11	10.68%	―	-18.36%	-13.81%
SCL	69 Neutral	$1.25B	22.60	4.65%	2.78%	-0.16%	47.70%
KRO	67 Neutral	$721.28M	7.50	11.87%	3.19%	10.42%	―
ALTO	53 Neutral	$88.02M	―	-24.43%	―	-17.27%	-112.62%
GEVO	53 Neutral	$306.64M	―	-16.11%	―	145.38%	-22.02%
GPRE	52 Neutral	$388.47M	―	-12.34%	―	-19.82%	-34.91%
Sector *	43 Neutral	AU$1.38B	-6.07	-40.62%	4.17%	-4.78%	-42.91%

Gevo Corporate Events

Gevo Appoints New CFO and Expands Board

On May 21, 2025, Gevo, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where significant changes were approved, including an amendment to the 2010 Stock Incentive Plan, increasing authorized shares by 15 million and extending the plan’s term to 2035. Additionally, Oluwagbemileke Agiri was appointed as the new Chief Financial Officer, succeeding L. Lynn Smull, who transitioned to a senior advisory role. The Board also expanded to include Dr. James J. Barber as a new director, enhancing the company’s governance with his extensive experience in the energy and technology sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.