Gevo (GEVO)
NASDAQ:GEVO
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Gevo
(NASDAQ:GEVO)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(17.65% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/16/26
The score is held down primarily by weak underlying financial durability (persistent cash burn and still-negative operating profit) and bearish technical signals. Offsetting this is a notably constructive earnings-call outlook with improving operations and explicit 2026 cash-flow/EBITDA targets, plus mixed but generally liquidity-supportive corporate financing actions.
Positive Factors
Operational scale & CO2 capture
Sustained high-volume production and meaningful CO2 sequestration create durable operational scale and carbon-asset capacity. This underpins long-term SAF feedstock availability, improves lifecycle emissions, and generates inventory the company can monetize or attach to product sales as markets for low-carbon fuels mature.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative cash flow
Despite improvement, the company remains a net cash consumer historically and in the latest period, requiring external financing to sustain operations and fund capex. Continued negative cash flow increases dependency on credit markets, asset sales, or equity raises, which can dilute returns or slow project timelines if financing tightens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operational scale & CO2 capture
Sustained high-volume production and meaningful CO2 sequestration create durable operational scale and carbon-asset capacity. This underpins long-term SAF feedstock availability, improves lifecycle emissions, and generates inventory the company can monetize or attach to product sales as markets for low-carbon fuels mature.
Read all positive factors
Gevo (GEVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$485.64M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.54
Revenue Growth675.75%
EPS Growth42.00%
CountryUS
Employees122
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.03
Shares Outstanding242,820,600
10 Day Avg. Volume1,970,752
30 Day Avg. Volume2,436,862
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)1.00
Price to Sales (P/S)2.91
P/FCF Ratio-10.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda89.69
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.75Price Target Upside414.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$186.42M
Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gevo, Inc. operates as a renewable fuels company. It operates through four segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company commercializes gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel to achieve zero carbon emissions, and reduc...
How the Company Makes Money
Gevo’s business model has historically been centered on (1) technology and intellectual-property commercialization and (2) developing, contracting, and potentially operating low-carbon fuel production capacity (notably SAF). Revenue and cash gener...
Gevo Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial momentum: a transformational 2025 driven by the Red Trail acquisition, record ethanol production, meaningful CO2 sequestration, three consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA, positive Q4 operating cash flow, and clear plans to expand capacity and pursue ATJ‑30 with sizeable long‑term upside. Management also articulated concrete near‑term targets (≈$40M annualized adjusted EBITDA, neutral to positive cash flow in 2026), active commercialization of carbon and digital traceability products, and partnerships to scale. Key risks remain around completing project financing (DOE/EDF loan guarantee timing), the timing and pricing of carbon/credit markets, and the need to scale advanced products (cellulosic/ATJ) — but overall the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Operational and Production Results
Gevo North Dakota produced a record ~69 million gallons of low‑carbon ethanol in 2025, achieved a yield of nearly 3 gallons per bushel (near theoretical maximum), produced ~2 million gallons of corn fiber cellulosic ethanol, and sequestered 173,000 metric tons of CO2 (exceeding the 165,000 ton benchmark). The company reported three consecutive quarters of positive non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA and generated positive cash flow from operations of $20 million in Q4 2025.
Negative Updates
GAAP Operating Loss and Remaining Profitability Gap
Despite operational improvements and positive adjusted EBITDA, full‑year 2025 still reported a loss from operations of $20 million, indicating the company has not yet achieved GAAP operating profitability.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Operational and Production Results
Gevo North Dakota produced a record ~69 million gallons of low‑carbon ethanol in 2025, achieved a yield of nearly 3 gallons per bushel (near theoretical maximum), produced ~2 million gallons of corn fiber cellulosic ethanol, and sequestered 173,000 metric tons of CO2 (exceeding the 165,000 ton benchmark). The company reported three consecutive quarters of positive non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA and generated positive cash flow from operations of $20 million in Q4 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Gevo's guidance and targets were metric‑heavy: full‑year 2025 revenue $161M, loss from operations $20M and non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA $16M, with record low‑carbon ethanol ~69M gallons (including ~2M gallons cellulosic), CO2 sequestered 173,000 metric tons (above the 165k benchmark), Q4 adjusted EBITDA ~ $8M and positive operating cash flow in Q4 of $20M; year‑end cash and restricted cash totaled $117M (+$9M vs Q3) with restricted cash released after February 2026 debt consolidation. They sold $52M of production tax credits (received ~$41M in 2025, remainder expected Q1‑2026) and built ~30,000 tons of CDR inventory while keeping ~80% of carbon benefits attached to ethanol in Q4. For 2026 they project Gevo North Dakota production of ~67M gallons and expect ~ $0.90/gal of 45Z credit generation (an incremental ~$0.10/gal from a 6–7 CI‑point reduction), are targeting ~ $10M adjusted EBITDA per quarter (~$40M annualized) and neutral‑to‑positive operating cash flow, plan to deploy ~$26M of capital in 2026 to expand ND to 75M gal/yr and ≥200k tpy CO2 (most projects 1–2 year payback), and aim for FID on ATJ‑30 (30M gal/yr Project North Star) in 2026 — a project they say could deliver ~$150M adjusted EBITDA/year — with a conditional DOE EDF loan guarantee and a strategy to scale via franchise/capital‑light growth and opportunistic acquisitions.Gevo Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 160.58M | 16.91M | 17.20M | 1.18M | 533.00K |
| Gross Profit | 48.54M | 4.91M | 5.21M | -7.52M | -7.15M |
| EBITDA | 6.46M | -56.46M | -45.05M | -88.95M | -53.82M |
| Net Income | -33.84M | -78.64M | -66.22M | -98.01M | -59.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 718.93M | 583.94M | 650.32M | 700.75M | 645.38M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.09M | 189.39M | 298.35M | 404.53M | 316.17M |
| Total Debt | 167.52M | 70.62M | 70.18M | 69.69M | 69.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 247.76M | 94.45M | 92.93M | 95.27M | 98.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 466.34M | 489.49M | 557.39M | 605.48M | 547.25M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -43.51M | -108.47M | -108.17M | -128.40M | -114.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -13.40M | -57.38M | -53.72M | -44.31M | -48.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -221.57M | -51.82M | 114.13M | 85.09M | -411.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 92.88M | -7.36M | -189.00K | 138.56M | 517.32M |
Gevo Technical Analysis
Negative
1.70
Price Trends
2.08
Negative
2.09
Negative
1.97
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
32.63
Neutral
14.66
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.20, below the 50-day MA of 2.08, and below the 200-day MA of 1.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GEVO.
Gevo Risk Analysis
Gevo disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gevo reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gevo Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.42B | 13.54 | 14.68% | ― | -3.10% | -22.31% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $1.14B | 23.10 | 3.80% | 3.33% | 5.35% | -1.43% | |
60 Neutral | $378.74M | 16.09 | 6.00% | ― | -8.00% | -35.86% | |
58 Neutral | $1.08B | -5.45 | -15.81% | ― | -12.07% | -821.68% | |
51 Neutral | $76.70M | -597.73 | 0.02% | 1.33% | -0.97% | -99.67% | |
50 Neutral | $485.64M | -13.83 | 0.26% | ― | 675.75% | 42.00% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GEVO
Gevo
1.70
0.58
51.79%
GPRE
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14.82
11.52
349.09%
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Northern Technologies International
8.11
1.30
19.16%
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
4.94
4.16
532.52%
REX
Rex American
43.05
22.87
113.33%
SCL
Stepan Company
51.42
5.71
12.49%
Gevo Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gevo Withdraws DOE Loan Application, Refocuses on ATJ-30
Negative
Apr 15, 2026
On April 15, 2026, Gevo withdrew its application for a U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantee tied to the ATJ-60 synthetic aviation fuel project in Lake Preston, South Dakota, which had previously received a conditional commitment extended to Ap...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Gevo Announces Upcoming Board Change as Director Steps Down
Neutral
Mar 16, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Gevo, Inc. announced that board member Angelo Amorelli has informed the company he will not stand for re-election at Gevo’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. He will remain on the board until his current term expires at...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gevo Refinances Debt and Expands North Dakota Credit Facilities
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 6, 2026, Gevo completed a refinancing transaction with Orion Infrastructure Capital that consolidated its North Dakota term debt with debt from its renewable natural gas subsidiary into a $175 million loan facility and enabled the rede...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.