Gevo (GEVO)
NASDAQ:GEVO
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Gevo
(NASDAQ:GEVO)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▼(-0.79% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is held back mainly by weak financial durability—persistent negative free cash flow, still-negative operating profitability, and a balance-sheet data anomaly—despite clear operational improvements. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages, while valuation is a notable risk due to the very high P/E. Earnings-call guidance and sentiment are constructive, but execution and policy/financing dependencies remain meaningful.
Positive Factors
Record production and carbon sequestration
Achieving ~69M gallons and 173k tons CO2 sequestration demonstrates durable operational scale and execution at the North Dakota asset. This tangible production and carbon capture base strengthens offtake credibility, supports long‑term SAF and credit monetization, and lowers unit economics as scale rises.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative cash flow
Despite recent improvements, multi‑year negative operating and free cash flow indicate ongoing cash burn and reliance on external financing or asset monetization to fund operations and growth. This structural cash gap can pressure liquidity, increase dilution risk, and constrain the pace of capital deployment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record production and carbon sequestration
Achieving ~69M gallons and 173k tons CO2 sequestration demonstrates durable operational scale and execution at the North Dakota asset. This tangible production and carbon capture base strengthens offtake credibility, supports long‑term SAF and credit monetization, and lowers unit economics as scale rises.
Read all positive factors
Gevo (GEVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$611.91M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.89
Revenue Growth675.75%
EPS Growth42.00%
CountryUS
Employees122
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.03
Shares Outstanding242,820,600
10 Day Avg. Volume1,970,752
30 Day Avg. Volume2,436,862
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)1.00
Price to Sales (P/S)2.91
P/FCF Ratio-10.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda120.52
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.50Price Target Upside237.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$183.62M
Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gevo, Inc. operates as a renewable fuels company. It operates through four segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company commercializes gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel to achieve zero carbon emissions, and reduc...
How the Company Makes Money
Gevo’s business model has historically been centered on (1) technology and intellectual-property commercialization and (2) developing, contracting, and potentially operating low-carbon fuel production capacity (notably SAF). Revenue and cash gener...
Gevo Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial momentum: a transformational 2025 driven by the Red Trail acquisition, record ethanol production, meaningful CO2 sequestration, three consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA, positive Q4 operating cash flow, and clear plans to expand capacity and pursue ATJ‑30 with sizeable long‑term upside. Management also articulated concrete near‑term targets (≈$40M annualized adjusted EBITDA, neutral to positive cash flow in 2026), active commercialization of carbon and digital traceability products, and partnerships to scale. Key risks remain around completing project financing (DOE/EDF loan guarantee timing), the timing and pricing of carbon/credit markets, and the need to scale advanced products (cellulosic/ATJ) — but overall the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Operational and Production Results
Gevo North Dakota produced a record ~69 million gallons of low‑carbon ethanol in 2025, achieved a yield of nearly 3 gallons per bushel (near theoretical maximum), produced ~2 million gallons of corn fiber cellulosic ethanol, and sequestered 173,000 metric tons of CO2 (exceeding the 165,000 ton benchmark). The company reported three consecutive quarters of positive non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA and generated positive cash flow from operations of $20 million in Q4 2025.
Negative Updates
GAAP Operating Loss and Remaining Profitability Gap
Despite operational improvements and positive adjusted EBITDA, full‑year 2025 still reported a loss from operations of $20 million, indicating the company has not yet achieved GAAP operating profitability.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Operational and Production Results
Gevo North Dakota produced a record ~69 million gallons of low‑carbon ethanol in 2025, achieved a yield of nearly 3 gallons per bushel (near theoretical maximum), produced ~2 million gallons of corn fiber cellulosic ethanol, and sequestered 173,000 metric tons of CO2 (exceeding the 165,000 ton benchmark). The company reported three consecutive quarters of positive non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA and generated positive cash flow from operations of $20 million in Q4 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Gevo's guidance and targets were metric‑heavy: full‑year 2025 revenue $161M, loss from operations $20M and non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA $16M, with record low‑carbon ethanol ~69M gallons (including ~2M gallons cellulosic), CO2 sequestered 173,000 metric tons (above the 165k benchmark), Q4 adjusted EBITDA ~ $8M and positive operating cash flow in Q4 of $20M; year‑end cash and restricted cash totaled $117M (+$9M vs Q3) with restricted cash released after February 2026 debt consolidation. They sold $52M of production tax credits (received ~$41M in 2025, remainder expected Q1‑2026) and built ~30,000 tons of CDR inventory while keeping ~80% of carbon benefits attached to ethanol in Q4. For 2026 they project Gevo North Dakota production of ~67M gallons and expect ~ $0.90/gal of 45Z credit generation (an incremental ~$0.10/gal from a 6–7 CI‑point reduction), are targeting ~ $10M adjusted EBITDA per quarter (~$40M annualized) and neutral‑to‑positive operating cash flow, plan to deploy ~$26M of capital in 2026 to expand ND to 75M gal/yr and ≥200k tpy CO2 (most projects 1–2 year payback), and aim for FID on ATJ‑30 (30M gal/yr Project North Star) in 2026 — a project they say could deliver ~$150M adjusted EBITDA/year — with a conditional DOE EDF loan guarantee and a strategy to scale via franchise/capital‑light growth and opportunistic acquisitions.Gevo Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 160.58M | 16.91M | 17.20M | 1.18M | 533.00K |
| Gross Profit | 48.54M | 4.91M | 5.21M | -7.52M | -7.15M |
| EBITDA | 6.46M | -56.46M | -45.05M | -88.95M | -53.82M |
| Net Income | -33.84M | -78.64M | -66.22M | -98.01M | -59.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 718.93M | 583.94M | 650.32M | 700.75M | 645.38M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.09M | 189.39M | 298.35M | 404.53M | 316.17M |
| Total Debt | 167.52M | 70.62M | 70.18M | 69.69M | 69.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 247.76M | 94.45M | 92.93M | 95.27M | 98.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 466.34M | 489.49M | 557.39M | 605.48M | 547.25M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -43.51M | -108.47M | -108.17M | -128.40M | -114.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -13.40M | -57.38M | -53.72M | -44.31M | -48.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -221.57M | -51.82M | 114.13M | 85.09M | -411.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 92.88M | -7.36M | -189.00K | 138.56M | 517.32M |
Gevo Technical Analysis
Positive
2.52
Price Trends
2.05
Positive
2.08
Positive
1.91
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Negative
67.82
Neutral
78.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.25, above the 50-day MA of 2.05, and above the 200-day MA of 1.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEVO.
Gevo Risk Analysis
Gevo disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gevo reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gevo Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $1.57B | 6.38 | 14.68% | ― | -3.10% | -22.31% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $1.12B | 23.10 | 3.80% | 3.33% | 5.35% | -1.43% | |
60 Neutral | $348.59M | 16.09 | 6.00% | ― | -8.00% | -35.86% | |
58 Neutral | $1.18B | -5.45 | -15.81% | ― | -12.07% | -821.68% | |
57 Neutral | $78.40M | 73.75 | 0.02% | 1.33% | -0.97% | -99.67% | |
53 Neutral | $611.91M | -19.47 | 0.26% | ― | 675.75% | 42.00% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GEVO
Gevo
2.52
1.39
122.03%
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16.89
12.03
247.53%
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8.26
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-20.33%
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
4.51
3.34
285.47%
REX
Rex American
47.73
28.78
151.87%
SCL
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49.49
-4.14
-7.72%
Gevo Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Gevo Announces Upcoming Board Change as Director Steps Down
Neutral
Mar 16, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Gevo, Inc. announced that board member Angelo Amorelli has informed the company he will not stand for re-election at Gevo’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. He will remain on the board until his current term expires at...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gevo Refinances Debt and Expands North Dakota Credit Facilities
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 6, 2026, Gevo completed a refinancing transaction with Orion Infrastructure Capital that consolidated its North Dakota term debt with debt from its renewable natural gas subsidiary into a $175 million loan facility and enabled the rede...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Gevo Announces Leadership Succession and Executive Compensation Changes
Positive
Jan 5, 2026
On January 5, 2026, Gevo announced a series of leadership and compensation changes as part of its ongoing growth and succession planning, highlighting both operational renewal and executive retention. Long-time chief operating officer and presiden...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.