Gevo (GEVO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $253.99M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.75M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.13
• Revenue Growth: -1.66%
• EPS Growth: -18.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 122
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 239,609,880
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,178,110
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,745,178
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 22.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $9.25
• Price Target Upside: 772.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

Gevo's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges and a weak valuation, offset partially by positive corporate developments. The acquisition of Red Trail Energy's assets could provide strategic advantages, but the company's current financial state and technical indicators suggest caution.

Positive Factors

Government Support

The $1.6B U.S. Department of Energy loan remains in play, and the company is working on closing this loan while arranging equity investors to limit dilution.

Profitability and Growth

Gevo has been expanding its renewable natural gas capacity, exceeding targeted production, which is expected to improve profitability.

Revenue Streams

The company now has revenue and cash flow streams tied to ethanol, carbon capture, carbon tracking, renewable natural gas, and Ethanol to Olefins (ETO) commercialization.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Gevo announced its 3Q24 results, with revenue of $2.0M compared to $4.5M in 3Q23, marking a 57% year-over-year decline.

Revenue Retention Strategy

Gevo's revenue in 3Q24 was $2.0M, marking a 57% year-over-year decline and a 63% quarter-over-quarter decline, largely due to a strategic decision to retain environmental attributes in inventory.

Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gevo, Inc. operates as a renewable fuels company. It operates through four segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company commercializes gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel to achieve zero carbon emissions, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with sustainable alternatives. Its products also include renewable gasoline and diesel, isooctane, isobutanol, sustainable aviation fuel, renewable natural gas, isobutylene, ethanol, and animal feed and protein. Gevo, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Axens North America, Inc. for ethanol-to-jet technology and sustainable aviation fuel commercial project development. The company was formerly known as Methanotech, Inc. and changed its name to Gevo, Inc. in March 2006. Gevo, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Gevo makes money through the production and sale of renewable fuels and chemicals. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the sale of isobutanol, ethanol, and renewable hydrocarbons to customers in the transportation and petrochemical industries. Gevo's key revenue streams include its proprietary production processes for converting renewable resources into high-value chemicals and fuels. Additionally, the company engages in strategic partnerships and licensing agreements to enhance its production capabilities and expand market reach. Government incentives, renewable energy mandates, and carbon credit markets also play a significant role in supporting Gevo's earnings by providing financial benefits for the adoption of sustainable technologies.

Gevo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Gevo faces substantial challenges across its financial metrics, with persistent losses and cash flow difficulties. While the balance sheet shows a stable equity position, the income and cash flow statements highlight critical areas of concern, requiring strategic improvements to achieve financial stability and growth.

Income Statement

Gevo has shown a volatile revenue trend, with a significant revenue decrease in recent years and a notable decline from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin is erratic, and net profit margins are consistently negative, highlighting ongoing operational challenges. Additionally, both EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating unprofitability at the operational level.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong equity position relative to its assets, with a high equity ratio. However, the debt-to-equity ratio indicates manageable debt levels, though historical fluctuations suggest potential financial instability. Despite negative net income, the return on equity is not calculable due to negative earnings, illustrating a need for improved profitability.

Cash Flow

Gevo's cash flow analysis reveals negative free cash flow growth and operating cash flow, reflecting challenges in generating cash from operations. The ratios of operating and free cash flow to net income are unfavorable, indicating inefficiencies in cash conversion and potential liquidity issues.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
16.91M	17.20M	1.18M	711.00K	5.31M
	Gross Profit
16.91M	-13.56M	-7.52M	-11.45M	-9.69M
	EBIT
-90.82M	-81.83M	-102.69M	-60.09M	-26.34M
	EBITDA
-72.53M	-62.83M	-88.95M	-53.82M	-32.13M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-78.64M	-66.22M	-118.58M	-59.38M	-39.15M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
189.39M	298.35M	404.53M	316.17M	78.34M
	Total Assets
583.94M	650.32M	700.75M	666.48M	152.10M
	Total Debt
3.49M	70.18M	69.69M	90.85M	1.27M
	Net Debt
-185.90M	-228.17M	-167.43M	50.01M	-77.07M
	Total Liabilities
94.45M	92.93M	95.27M	119.22M	5.72M
	Stockholders Equity
489.49M	557.39M	605.48M	547.25M	146.38M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-57.38M	-108.17M	-128.40M	-112.37M	-25.24M
	Operating Cash Flow
-57.38M	-53.72M	-52.61M	-43.54M	-19.34M
	Investing Cash Flow
-51.82M	114.13M	93.39M	-411.62M	-5.91M
	Financing Cash Flow
-7.36M	-189.00K	138.56M	512.85M	87.28M

Gevo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.06
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.12, below the 50-day MA of 1.22, and below the 200-day MA of 1.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GEVO.

Gevo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	69 Neutral	$674.27M	12.32	10.83%	―	-23.12%	-4.89%
SCL	67 Neutral	$1.24B	22.36	4.65%	2.77%	-0.16%	47.70%
KRO	67 Neutral	$869.67M	10.09	10.61%	4.50%	13.24%	―
Sector *	49 Neutral	$1.95B	-1.37	-21.20%	3.73%	0.84%	-29.84%
GEVO	47 Neutral	$253.99M	―	-15.02%	―	-1.66%	-18.31%
GPRE	46 Neutral	$249.13M	―	-9.65%	―	-25.69%	18.54%
ALTO	41 Neutral	$74.86M	―	-23.38%	―	-21.07%	-104.32%

Gevo Corporate Events

Gevo Expands with Strategic Acquisition and Financing

On January 31, 2025, Gevo, Inc. completed the acquisition of Red Trail Energy, LLC’s assets, including an ethanol production plant and carbon capture and sequestration assets, for $210 million. This strategic acquisition, which is part of Gevo’s Net-Zero North initiative, aims to enhance Gevo’s portfolio by transforming the acquired site into a sustainable aviation fuel facility and leveraging the carbon sequestration capabilities to support future projects. The transaction was financed through a combination of Gevo’s equity and a $105 million term loan from Orion Infrastructure Capital, which also invested $5 million in equity at Net-Zero North.