Gevo (GEVO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $506.43M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.42M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.03
• Revenue Growth: 675.75%
• EPS Growth: 42.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 122
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 242,308,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,452,542
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,422,503
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 28.63
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.87
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -133.77
• 1Y Price Target: $8.13
• Price Target Upside: 279.91% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.24
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $138.13M

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▼(-6.54% Downside)

Gevo's overall score reflects strong revenue growth and positive earnings call highlights, but is tempered by ongoing profitability and cash flow challenges. Technical indicators show mixed signals, and valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant revenue growth indicates strong market demand for Gevo's renewable fuels, enhancing its market position and long-term growth prospects.

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships like the one with BioRecro enhance Gevo's capabilities in carbon management, supporting sustainable growth and competitive advantage.

Positive EBITDA Growth

The improvement in EBITDA reflects enhanced operational efficiency and profitability potential, crucial for long-term financial health.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing operational losses highlight challenges in achieving profitability, which could hinder financial stability and growth initiatives.

RNG Market Challenges

Challenges in the RNG market could limit revenue diversification and growth, affecting Gevo's ability to expand its renewable energy portfolio.

Cash Flow Issues

Persistent cash flow issues may restrict Gevo's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage financial obligations, impacting long-term sustainability.

Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gevo, Inc. operates as a renewable fuels company. It operates through four segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company commercializes gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel to achieve zero carbon emissions, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with sustainable alternatives. Its products also include renewable gasoline and diesel, isooctane, isobutanol, sustainable aviation fuel, renewable natural gas, isobutylene, ethanol, and animal feed and protein. Gevo, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Axens North America, Inc. for ethanol-to-jet technology and sustainable aviation fuel commercial project development. The company was formerly known as Methanotech, Inc. and changed its name to Gevo, Inc. in March 2006. Gevo, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Gevo generates revenue primarily through the sale of its renewable fuels and chemicals, particularly isobutanol and SAF. The company employs a business model that includes both direct sales to end-users and long-term supply agreements with key partners in the aviation and chemicals sectors. Significant partnerships, such as those with airlines and fuel suppliers, help secure stable revenue streams. Additionally, Gevo explores opportunities for licensing its technologies to other manufacturers, which can provide further income. The company's commitment to sustainability and innovation positions it to capitalize on the growing demand for renewable energy solutions, driving its financial growth.

Gevo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Gevo shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but negative returns on equity and cash flow issues highlight the need for improved operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Gevo's income statement shows a significant revenue growth of 50.81% in the TTM period, indicating strong top-line expansion. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins of -72.76% and -59.79%, respectively. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 44.25%, but the high operating losses suggest challenges in managing operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -12.04%, highlighting ongoing profitability issues. The equity ratio is not directly provided, but the company's equity position appears stable relative to its assets, suggesting a solid capital structure despite operational losses.

Cash Flow

Gevo's cash flow statement reveals negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, with a concerning free cash flow growth rate of -27.28% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.77, indicating cash flow challenges. Despite these issues, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.63 suggests some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	120.93M	16.91M	17.20M	1.18M	533.00K	5.54M
Gross Profit	48.61M	4.91M	5.21M	-7.52M	-7.15M	-9.47M
EBITDA	-3.95M	-56.46M	-45.05M	-88.95M	-53.82M	-32.19M
Net Income	-45.15M	-78.64M	-66.22M	-98.01M	-59.20M	-40.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	685.21M	583.94M	650.32M	700.75M	645.38M	152.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	72.60M	189.39M	298.35M	404.53M	316.17M	78.34M
Total Debt	3.28M	70.62M	70.18M	69.69M	69.89M	1.60M
Total Liabilities	210.38M	94.45M	92.93M	95.27M	98.13M	5.72M
Stockholders Equity	468.87M	489.49M	557.39M	605.48M	547.25M	146.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-85.73M	-108.47M	-108.17M	-128.40M	-114.21M	-25.24M
Operating Cash Flow	-52.20M	-57.38M	-53.72M	-44.31M	-48.27M	-19.34M
Investing Cash Flow	-231.99M	-51.82M	114.13M	85.09M	-411.36M	-5.91M
Financing Cash Flow	99.70M	-7.36M	-189.00K	138.56M	517.32M	87.28M

Gevo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.07, below the 50-day MA of 2.18, and above the 200-day MA of 1.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEVO.

Gevo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	75 Outperform	$1.09B	22.33	9.47%	―	-9.57%	-24.85%
SCL	62 Neutral	$1.03B	22.93	3.67%	3.42%	5.35%	-1.43%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ALTO	54 Neutral	$189.49M	―	-20.64%	―	-8.00%	-35.86%
GPRE	53 Neutral	$697.65M	―	-22.21%	―	-12.07%	-821.68%
GEVO	51 Neutral	$506.43M	―	-9.27%	―	675.75%	42.00%
NTIC	44 Neutral	$70.82M	4,150.00	0.02%	1.34%	-0.97%	-99.67%

Gevo Corporate Events

Gevo Inc’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

Gevo Inc’s recent earnings call painted a picture of optimism tempered by ongoing challenges. The company reported significant revenue growth and successful carbon credit sales, which contributed to a positive adjusted EBITDA and strong partnerships. However, Gevo is still operating at a loss and faces hurdles in the RNG market.

Gevo Inc. Reports Positive Adjusted EBITDA Amid Strategic Growth

Gevo Inc., a leader in renewable hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals, focuses on reducing carbon emissions through innovative energy solutions. The company operates in the renewable energy sector, with a unique emphasis on carbon capture and sustainable fuel production.

Gevo Secures $10 Million Tax Credit Agreement

Gevo, Inc. announced two significant tax credit transfer agreements in late 2025. On October 30, 2025, Gevo’s subsidiary entered into an agreement with Stifel Financial Corp. to supply $20 million worth of Clean Fuel Production Credits from ethanol production, with a potential for additional credits in 2026. A similar agreement was made with Capital Community Bancorporation on November 4, 2025, for $10 million in credits. These agreements are expected to enhance Gevo’s financial position and strengthen its market presence in the renewable energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.

Gevo Receives Extension for $1.46 Billion Loan

Gevo, Inc. announced that it has received an extension from the U.S. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office for its $1.46 billion loan guarantee for the ATJ-60 synthetic aviation fuel project in South Dakota. This extension, granted on October 8, 2025, allows Gevo to explore modifications to the project, including a potential new facility in North Dakota, to better align with energy policies and priorities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Hold with a $2.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.

Gevo Subsidiary Signs Carbon Removal Sales Agreement

On September 18, 2025, Gevo‘s subsidiary, Net-Zero Richardton, LLC, entered into a Carbon Dioxide Removal Sales Agreement with Biorecro North America, LLC. Under this agreement, Gevo will sell approximately $26 million worth of carbon dioxide removal credits from its facilities in Richardton, North Dakota. The agreement, effective until December 31, 2030, allows Biorecro to purchase additional credits quarterly and includes options for extension and termination under specific conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Hold with a $2.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.

Gevo Unveils Strategic Initiatives in Investor Presentation

On September 9, 2025, Gevo, Inc. released a revised investor presentation on its website, highlighting its strategic initiatives and operational synergies. The presentation emphasized Gevo’s focus on low-carbon ethanol production, carbon capture, and the development of synthetic aviation fuel, positioning the company as a competitive player in the renewable energy sector. The announcement underscores Gevo’s commitment to sustainability and its potential for significant growth in the renewable fuels market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.

Gevo Inc’s Earnings Call Highlights Positive Financial Strides

Gevo Inc’s recent earnings call conveyed a largely positive sentiment, highlighting the company’s substantial achievements in financial performance, monetization of credits, and production efficiency. Despite facing some delays in project timelines and limitations related to tax credits, Gevo is making significant strides toward its strategic objectives.