Gevo (GEVO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $487.04M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.44M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.05
• Revenue Growth: 675.75%
• EPS Growth: 42.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 122
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 242,308,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,970,752
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,436,862
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 28.63
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.81
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -147.39
• 1Y Price Target: $8.50
• Price Target Upside: 322.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▼(-0.50% Downside)

The score is primarily held down by weak financial quality (large losses, negative ROE, and negative operating/free cash flow) and soft technical momentum (negative MACD and trading below key short-term averages). Offsetting these are a more optimistic earnings outlook supported by positive adjusted EBITDA, sizable clean fuel credit monetization, and growth initiatives, but valuation support is limited due to ongoing losses and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Gevo's significant revenue growth reflects strong demand for its renewable products, enhancing its market position and long-term financial prospects.

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships in carbon management bolster Gevo's competitive edge in renewable energy, supporting sustainable growth and innovation.

Loan Extension

The loan extension provides Gevo with financial flexibility to explore project modifications, aligning with energy policies and supporting future expansion.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing operational losses highlight challenges in achieving profitability, which may hinder long-term financial stability and growth.

RNG Market Challenges

Difficulties in the RNG market could limit revenue diversification and growth potential, affecting Gevo's overall market strategy.

Cash Flow Issues

Persistent cash flow challenges may restrict Gevo's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage financial obligations effectively.

Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gevo, Inc. operates as a renewable fuels company. It operates through four segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company commercializes gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel to achieve zero carbon emissions, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with sustainable alternatives. Its products also include renewable gasoline and diesel, isooctane, isobutanol, sustainable aviation fuel, renewable natural gas, isobutylene, ethanol, and animal feed and protein. Gevo, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Axens North America, Inc. for ethanol-to-jet technology and sustainable aviation fuel commercial project development. The company was formerly known as Methanotech, Inc. and changed its name to Gevo, Inc. in March 2006. Gevo, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Gevo generates revenue primarily through the sale of its renewable fuels and chemicals, particularly isobutanol and SAF. The company employs a business model that includes both direct sales to end-users and long-term supply agreements with key partners in the aviation and chemicals sectors. Significant partnerships, such as those with airlines and fuel suppliers, help secure stable revenue streams. Additionally, Gevo explores opportunities for licensing its technologies to other manufacturers, which can provide further income. The company's commitment to sustainability and innovation positions it to capitalize on the growing demand for renewable energy solutions, driving its financial growth.

Gevo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong TTM revenue growth (50.81%) and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio (0.36) are positives, but results are weighed down by very weak profitability (net margin -72.76%, EBIT margin -59.79%), negative ROE (-12.04%), and negative operating/free cash flow with declining FCF growth (-27.28%).

Income Statement

Gevo's income statement shows a significant revenue growth of 50.81% in the TTM period, indicating strong top-line expansion. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins of -72.76% and -59.79%, respectively. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 44.25%, but the high operating losses suggest challenges in managing operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -12.04%, highlighting ongoing profitability issues. The equity ratio is not directly provided, but the company's equity position appears stable relative to its assets, suggesting a solid capital structure despite operational losses.

Cash Flow

Gevo's cash flow statement reveals negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, with a concerning free cash flow growth rate of -27.28% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.77, indicating cash flow challenges. Despite these issues, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.63 suggests some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	120.93M	16.91M	17.20M	1.18M	533.00K	5.54M
Gross Profit	48.61M	4.91M	5.21M	-7.52M	-7.15M	-9.47M
EBITDA	-3.95M	-56.46M	-45.05M	-88.95M	-53.82M	-32.19M
Net Income	-45.15M	-78.64M	-66.22M	-98.01M	-59.20M	-40.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	685.21M	583.94M	650.32M	700.75M	645.38M	152.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	72.60M	189.39M	298.35M	404.53M	316.17M	78.34M
Total Debt	167.75M	70.62M	70.18M	69.69M	69.89M	1.60M
Total Liabilities	210.38M	94.45M	92.93M	95.27M	98.13M	5.72M
Stockholders Equity	468.87M	489.49M	557.39M	605.48M	547.25M	146.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-85.73M	-108.47M	-108.17M	-128.40M	-114.21M	-25.24M
Operating Cash Flow	-52.20M	-57.38M	-53.72M	-44.31M	-48.27M	-19.34M
Investing Cash Flow	-231.99M	-51.82M	114.13M	85.09M	-411.36M	-5.91M
Financing Cash Flow	99.70M	-7.36M	-189.00K	138.56M	517.32M	87.28M

Gevo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.01
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.02, below the 50-day MA of 2.09, and above the 200-day MA of 1.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GEVO.

Gevo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	78 Outperform	$1.10B	22.33	8.89%	―	-3.10%	-22.31%
SCL	66 Neutral	$1.26B	28.32	3.67%	3.33%	5.35%	-1.43%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ALTO	59 Neutral	$206.51M	-3.83	-20.64%	―	-8.00%	-35.86%
NTIC	57 Neutral	$87.33M	-273.00	0.02%	1.33%	-0.97%	-99.67%
GPRE	55 Neutral	$804.50M	―	-22.21%	―	-12.07%	-821.68%
GEVO	48 Neutral	$487.04M	-10.45	-9.27%	―	675.75%	42.00%

Gevo Corporate Events

Gevo Announces Leadership Succession and Executive Compensation Changes

On January 5, 2026, Gevo announced a series of leadership and compensation changes as part of its ongoing growth and succession planning, highlighting both operational renewal and executive retention. Long-time chief operating officer and president Christopher M. Ryan notified the company of his intention to retire effective on or about June 5, 2026, and agricultural industry veteran Greg Hanselman was hired the same day as executive vice president of operations and engineering, with the expectation that he will assume the COO role upon Ryan’s retirement. Gevo also put in place new employment agreements for president Paul Bloom and chief financial officer Oluwagbemileke (Leke) Agiri, effective January 1, 2026, confirming Bloom’s path to succeed Patrick R. Gruber as chief executive officer around April 1, 2026 and setting detailed terms for salary, bonuses, severance protections, non-compete obligations, and equity-based incentives. These arrangements, which include tailored change-in-control protection, extended vesting of equity awards following qualifying departures, and specific retirement-transition provisions for Bloom, underscore Gevo’s efforts to ensure leadership stability and operational continuity as it scales its renewable fuels and carbon management platform, while also tightening post-employment restrictions in exchange for stock grants and non-compete payments.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Buy with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.

Gevo Announces Leadership Transition with New President

On December 9, 2025, Gevo, Inc. announced a leadership transition with the retirement of CEO Patrick R. Gruber, effective April 1, 2026, and the immediate appointment of Paul D. Bloom as President and future CEO. Dr. Bloom, who has been with Gevo since 2021, is expected to lead the company into its next phase of growth, focusing on profitability and leveraging technology and intellectual property. Additionally, the Board approved amendments to the company’s bylaws to modernize governance practices, including changes to quorum determination and voting standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.

Gevo Secures $10 Million Tax Credit Agreement

Gevo, Inc. announced two significant tax credit transfer agreements in late 2025. On October 30, 2025, Gevo’s subsidiary entered into an agreement with Stifel Financial Corp. to supply $20 million worth of Clean Fuel Production Credits from ethanol production, with a potential for additional credits in 2026. A similar agreement was made with Capital Community Bancorporation on November 4, 2025, for $10 million in credits. These agreements are expected to enhance Gevo’s financial position and strengthen its market presence in the renewable energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEVO) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gevo stock, see the GEVO Stock Forecast page.