Gevo Inc (GEVO)
NASDAQ:GEVO
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Gevo
(NASDAQ:GEVO)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(17.65% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/27/26
GEVO’s score is supported primarily by an improving operating profile and a de-risked balance sheet with very low leverage, plus constructive earnings-call momentum and guidance. These positives are tempered by persistent cash burn and ongoing GAAP losses, weak technical trend signals (below major moving averages with negative MACD), and valuation limits given negative earnings and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Revenue and EBITDA Improvement
Gevo has materially improved operating scale and converted to positive adjusted EBITDA, reflecting better production, margin capture and operational leverage. Sustained revenue growth and management guidance to ~$30M EBITDA for 2026 imply a clearer path to persistent cash generation if tax-credit monetization and execution remain consistent.
Negative Factors
Persistent Cash Burn
Negative operating and free cash flow persist despite non‑GAAP improvements, forcing reliance on financing or crediting timing to fund operations and capex. Continued cash burn raises dilution and refinancing risk, constrains pace of expansions, and makes multi‑quarter project buildouts contingent on successful capital raises.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and EBITDA Improvement
Gevo has materially improved operating scale and converted to positive adjusted EBITDA, reflecting better production, margin capture and operational leverage. Sustained revenue growth and management guidance to ~$30M EBITDA for 2026 imply a clearer path to persistent cash generation if tax-credit monetization and execution remain consistent.
Read all positive factors
Gevo (GEVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$452.75M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.69M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.42
Revenue Growth314.95%
EPS Growth58.49%
CountryUS
Employees122
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.14
Shares Outstanding243,411,330
10 Day Avg. Volume2,883,245
30 Day Avg. Volume3,687,975
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)1.00
Price to Sales (P/S)2.91
P/FCF Ratio-10.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda34.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.50Price Target Upside282.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$183.72M
Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gevo, Inc. operates as a renewable fuels company. It operates through four segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company commercializes gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel to achieve zero carbon emissions, and reduc...
How the Company Makes Money
Gevo’s business model has historically been centered on (1) technology and intellectual-property commercialization and (2) developing, contracting, and potentially operating low-carbon fuel production capacity (notably SAF). Revenue and cash gener...
Gevo Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized materially stronger operating performance and a clear plan to scale into higher-margin businesses: revenue grew ~48% YoY, Q1 adjusted EBITDA turned positive (from -$15M to +$9M), carbon and CDR sales show expanding commercial traction, and engineering/offtake progress on Project NorthStar plus a preliminary Ara Energy expansion partnership signal multiple growth vectors. Offsets include continued GAAP losses ($22M net loss), negative operating cash flow driven by timing of tax credit monetization, only partial offtake coverage for the flagship ATJ project, and elevated execution and financing risk following withdrawal from the DOE loan guarantee. On balance, operational momentum, improving non‑GAAP profitability, concrete engineering progress, and partnership interest appear to outweigh the financing and policy risks in the near term.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $43.0M versus $29.0M in Q1 2025, an increase of approximately 48.3% year-over-year, driven by stronger production, improved margins, and carbon attribute monetization.
Negative Updates
Net Loss and Ongoing GAAP Losses
Net loss attributable to Gevo of $22.0M (EPS $0.09) in Q1 2026 — EPS was unchanged from Q1 2025 — indicating continued GAAP-level losses despite non-GAAP improvement.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $43.0M versus $29.0M in Q1 2025, an increase of approximately 48.3% year-over-year, driven by stronger production, improved margins, and carbon attribute monetization.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to roughly $30 million of adjusted EBITDA for the 12 months of 2026 while reaffirming a goal of reaching a $40 million annualized adjusted EBITDA run-rate by year-end; they said Project NorthStar could contribute about $150 million of adjusted EBITDA per year when fully online and that they expect to secure project financing for NorthStar by the end of 2026 (targeting ~60% project leverage), with FEL2 complete and FEL3 on track this quarter to a +/-10% capital estimate and roughly half of financeable long‑term offtakes already secured (versus a typical 70–80% contracted range for financing). They expect the North Dakota debottlenecking to boost that segment’s adjusted EBITDA by ~10–15%, plan to spend ~$26 million of capex this year (funded internally) for debottlenecking/site work, and disclosed Q1 metrics including $43M revenue (vs. $29M Y/Y), $9M Q1 adjusted EBITDA (vs. a $15M loss prior year), a $22M net loss ($0.09/share), ~$39M cash, negative operating cash flow of $21M (including $17M of tax credits not yet monetized and ~$4M one‑time refinancing costs), Q1 production of 18M gallons of low carbon ethanol (current nameplate 67M gal/yr), RNG of ~92k BTUs (+15% Y/Y), and nearly 20k tons of engineered CDRs generated in Q1.Gevo Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 174.42M | 160.58M | 16.91M | 17.20M | 1.18M | 533.00K |
| Gross Profit | 82.52M | 48.54M | 4.91M | 5.21M | -7.52M | -7.15M |
| EBITDA | 15.99M | 6.46M | -56.46M | -45.05M | -88.95M | -53.82M |
| Net Income | -33.80M | -33.84M | -78.64M | -66.22M | -98.01M | -59.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 653.50M | 718.93M | 583.94M | 650.32M | 700.75M | 645.38M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 78.90M | 1.09M | 189.39M | 298.35M | 404.53M | 316.17M |
| Total Debt | 170.23M | 167.52M | 70.62M | 70.18M | 69.69M | 69.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 198.80M | 247.76M | 94.45M | 92.93M | 95.27M | 98.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 447.75M | 466.34M | 489.49M | 557.39M | 605.48M | 547.25M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -43.52M | -43.51M | -108.47M | -108.17M | -128.40M | -114.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -10.49M | -13.40M | -57.38M | -53.72M | -44.31M | -48.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -31.40M | -221.57M | -51.82M | 114.13M | 85.09M | -411.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -14.13M | 92.88M | -7.36M | -189.00K | 138.56M | 517.32M |
Gevo Technical Analysis
Neutral
1.70
Price Trends
1.99
Negative
1.99
Negative
2.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
51.45
Neutral
82.00
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.83, below the 50-day MA of 1.99, and below the 200-day MA of 2.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GEVO.
Gevo Risk Analysis
Gevo disclosed 5 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gevo reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gevo Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $1.54B | 16.70 | 15.77% | ― | 2.71% | 73.25% | |
67 Neutral | $1.10B | -69.89 | -2.02% | ― | -20.16% | 83.66% | |
64 Neutral | $422.30M | 13.92 | 12.66% | ― | -3.69% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $1.20B | -85.05 | -1.15% | 3.33% | 5.46% | -125.23% | |
52 Neutral | $452.75M | -13.03 | -7.28% | ― | 314.95% | 58.49% | |
52 Neutral | $75.94M | -97.92 | -1.07% | 1.33% | 5.55% | -120.30% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GEVO
Gevo
1.86
0.70
60.34%
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15.67
11.51
276.68%
NTIC
Northern Technologies International
8.00
0.80
11.06%
ALTO
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5.45
4.52
483.51%
REX
Rex American
46.76
25.91
124.27%
SCL
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52.85
1.23
2.37%
Gevo Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Gevo Shareholders Back Directors, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Gevo, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders via online webcast, with 57.1% of outstanding voting power represented, satisfying quorum requirements. Shareholders voted on director elections, ratification of the independ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Gevo Transitions Former CEO to Long-Term Consulting Role
Neutral
Apr 27, 2026
Gevo, Inc. reported that former Chief Executive Officer Patrick R. Gruber retired from his role on April 1, 2026, and subsequently entered into a long-term consulting arrangement with the company. Under a Consulting Services Agreement effective Ma...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gevo Withdraws DOE Loan Application, Refocuses on ATJ-30
Negative
Apr 15, 2026
On April 15, 2026, Gevo withdrew its application for a U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantee tied to the ATJ-60 synthetic aviation fuel project in Lake Preston, South Dakota, which had previously received a conditional commitment extended to Ap...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Gevo Announces Upcoming Board Change as Director Steps Down
Neutral
Mar 16, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Gevo, Inc. announced that board member Angelo Amorelli has informed the company he will not stand for re-election at Gevo’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. He will remain on the board until his current term expires at...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.