Gevo (GEVO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $394.20M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.15M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.10
• Revenue Growth: 341.75%
• EPS Growth: 20.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 122
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Chemicals - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 241,839,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,799,124
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,151,732
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -14.20
• 1Y Price Target: $7.75
• Price Target Upside: 364.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-10.18% Downside)

Gevo's overall stock score is driven by strong revenue growth and positive earnings call sentiment, but is constrained by ongoing profitability challenges and a negative valuation. Technical indicators suggest positive momentum, and recent corporate events enhance financial stability.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Gevo announced its 1Q25 results, with revenue of $29.1M compared to $4.0M in 1Q24, showing a 630% year-over-year increase.

Regulatory Environment

Gevo is positioned as a potential beneficiary of the latest House Republican tax proposal that includes an extension of the 45Z tax credit through the end of 2031, a significant positive for the industry.

Strategic Developments

The sale of the Luverne facility is seen as a positive move for Gevo, as it is expected to lower operating costs by $3M annually.

Negative Factors

Loan and Financing

The $1.6B U.S. Department of Energy loan remains in play, and the company is working on closing this loan while arranging equity investors to limit dilution.

Market Reaction

The after-hours reaction to the company's 2Q25 results and earnings call is indicative of a potential re-rating of the stock by the market to align with a demonstrated diversification in revenues, cash flows, balance sheet and an outlook supported by positive regulations.

Underutilized Opportunities

The company's Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) opportunity remains underutilized, with management indicating potential for this segment to grow from $3-5M in 2025 and exceed $30M in future years.

Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gevo, Inc. operates as a renewable fuels company. It operates through four segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company commercializes gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel to achieve zero carbon emissions, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with sustainable alternatives. Its products also include renewable gasoline and diesel, isooctane, isobutanol, sustainable aviation fuel, renewable natural gas, isobutylene, ethanol, and animal feed and protein. Gevo, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Axens North America, Inc. for ethanol-to-jet technology and sustainable aviation fuel commercial project development. The company was formerly known as Methanotech, Inc. and changed its name to Gevo, Inc. in March 2006. Gevo, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Englewood, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Gevo generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its biofuels and renewable chemicals to various industries. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of isobutanol, which serves as a platform chemical for the production of gasoline and other chemicals, along with other renewable fuels. Gevo has established strategic partnerships and agreements with major companies in the energy and chemical sectors, which not only provide a market for its products but also contribute to its revenue through joint ventures and collaborative projects. Additionally, Gevo may earn income from licensing its technology to other manufacturers, further expanding its revenue potential. The increasing demand for sustainable energy solutions and regulatory support for renewable fuels significantly bolster Gevo's earnings potential.

Gevo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Gevo shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability, as indicated by a negative net profit margin and negative cash flows. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but negative returns on equity highlight ongoing financial challenges.

Income Statement

Gevo's income statement shows significant revenue growth in the TTM period, with a 90.77% increase. However, the company is still facing substantial losses, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -72.76% and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The gross profit margin is positive at 27.49%, indicating some operational efficiency improvements. Overall, while revenue growth is promising, profitability remains a major concern.

Balance Sheet

Gevo's balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.008, indicating minimal leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -12.04%, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges. The equity ratio is robust, suggesting financial stability despite the negative ROE.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals negative operating and free cash flows, with a free cash flow growth rate of -18.31% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	80.19M	16.91M	17.20M	1.18M	533.00K	5.54M
Gross Profit	35.48M	4.91M	5.21M	-7.52M	-12.28M	-9.47M
EBITDA	-25.54M	-56.46M	-45.05M	-88.95M	-53.82M	-32.13M
Net Income	-58.35M	-78.64M	-66.22M	-98.01M	-59.38M	-40.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	702.12M	583.94M	650.32M	700.75M	666.48M	152.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	57.26M	189.39M	298.35M	404.53M	316.17M	78.34M
Total Debt	171.32M	70.62M	70.18M	69.69M	69.89M	1.60M
Total Liabilities	222.35M	94.45M	92.93M	95.27M	98.13M	5.72M
Stockholders Equity	474.10M	489.49M	557.39M	605.48M	547.25M	146.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-91.89M	-108.47M	-108.17M	-128.40M	-112.37M	-25.24M
Operating Cash Flow	-56.43M	-57.38M	-53.72M	-52.61M	-43.54M	-19.34M
Investing Cash Flow	-234.65M	-51.82M	114.13M	93.39M	-411.62M	-5.91M
Financing Cash Flow	102.66M	-7.36M	-189.00K	138.56M	517.32M	87.28M

Gevo Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1.67
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.69, above the 50-day MA of 1.52, and above the 200-day MA of 1.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GEVO.

Gevo Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REX	75 Outperform	$1.05B	21.52	9.47%	―	-9.57%	-24.85%
SCL	67 Neutral	$1.12B	19.54	4.77%	3.07%	2.64%	66.43%
KRO	64 Neutral	$704.13M	10.43	8.33%	3.23%	6.51%	3457.58%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$10.28B	6.21	0.76%	2.84%	3.10%	-36.03%
GPRE	59 Neutral	$731.05M	―	-18.95%	―	-15.66%	-237.12%
GEVO	58 Neutral	$394.20M	―	-11.71%	―	341.75%	20.16%
ALTO	48 Neutral	$89.01M	―	-28.22%	―	-12.70%	-74.32%

Gevo Corporate Events

Gevo Strengthens Liquidity with New Bond Issuance

On July 10, 2025, Gevo announced the issuance of $40 million in new bonds by the Iowa Finance Authority to refinance part of its existing debt, enhancing its liquidity by approximately $30 million. This move is part of Gevo’s strategy to strengthen its balance sheet and expand its renewable natural gas operations, which have been certified for significant carbon emissions reductions, positioning the company as a leader in sustainable energy solutions.

Gevo Secures $22M Tax Credit Agreement

On June 30, 2025, Gevo Intermediate HoldCo, LLC, a subsidiary of Gevo, Inc., entered into a Tax Credit Transfer Agreement with a bank to supply $22 million worth of Clean Fuel Production Credits from ethanol production in 2025. The agreement includes options for additional credits and provisions for termination under specific conditions, impacting Gevo’s operational strategy and positioning in the renewable energy market.