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Gevo
(NASDAQ:GEVO)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-7.41% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance (large operating losses and negative free cash flow) and bearish technicals (trading below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these, the latest earnings call featured materially improved 2026 adjusted EBITDA and cash flow outlook, but reliance on tax credit monetization and financing/offtake execution keeps risk meaningfully elevated.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Margin Improvement
Revenue scaled sharply to ~$177.5M TTM with gross margin around 43%, reflecting meaningful commercial progress and improved unit economics. Sustained higher volumes and better margins support reinvestment for capacity upgrades and make core SAF and co-product economics more durable over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Persistent Cash Burn
Despite revenue growth, the company remains cash negative with sizable negative free cash flow, implying ongoing reliance on external funding to support operations and capex. Continued cash burn elevates dilution and refinancing risks and limits ability to absorb project setbacks over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Margin Improvement
Revenue scaled sharply to ~$177.5M TTM with gross margin around 43%, reflecting meaningful commercial progress and improved unit economics. Sustained higher volumes and better margins support reinvestment for capacity upgrades and make core SAF and co-product economics more durable over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Gevo (GEVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$400.52M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.43
Revenue Growth121.37%
EPS Growth-264.53%
CountryUS
Employees151
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.90
Shares Outstanding247,237,100
10 Day Avg. Volume4,679,648
30 Day Avg. Volume3,763,727
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)1.00
Price to Sales (P/S)2.91
P/FCF Ratio-10.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.58Price Target Upside306.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$194.87M
Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gevo, Inc. is a company focused on the development and commercialization of renewable fuels. Its operations are organized into four distinct segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company's primary objective is to of...
How the Company Makes Money
Gevo’s revenue model has historically been centered on (1) sales of renewable fuels and related products produced at its operating assets and (2) proceeds from byproducts and co-products generated alongside those fuels, with reported revenue level...
Gevo Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented meaningful operational and commercial progress: revenue growth, a ~70% increase in six-month gross profit, CFR pathway approval in Canada, an upgraded 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to >$60M (double prior guidance), and clear near-term debottlenecking and expansion plans. These positives are tempered by a large one-time $176M impairment that produced a GAAP loss, higher non-impairment operating expenses, dependency on timely monetization of 45Z tax credits, and outstanding financing/offtake execution risks for larger expansion and ATJ projects. On balance, management demonstrated execution progress and improved cash/EBITDA trajectories, while acknowledging a set of execution and timing risks that remain to be addressed.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q2 2026 revenue of $47 million versus $43 million in Q2 2025, a 7% year-over-year increase; first half 2026 revenue grew 23% to $89 million versus H1 2025.
Negative Updates
Large One-Time Non-Cash Impairment
Recognized a $176 million one-time non-cash impairment charge related to exiting the ATJ-60 project and other prior non-core initiatives; this drove GAAP net loss attributable to Gevo of $177 million (loss of $0.75 per share) in Q2.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q2 2026 revenue of $47 million versus $43 million in Q2 2025, a 7% year-over-year increase; first half 2026 revenue grew 23% to $89 million versus H1 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to materially stronger 2026 results: Q2 revenue was $47M (+7% YoY) and H1 revenue $89M (+23% YoY), Q2 gross profit $20M (43% margin) and H1 gross profit $36M vs $21M a year ago, Q2 adjusted EBITDA $11M, GAAP net loss $177M ($0.75/sh) and adjusted net loss $1M ($0.01/sh); cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaled $58M (plus ~$16M of 45Z proceeds collected post-quarter). Key forward metrics include expected 2026 adjusted EBITDA of >$60M (vs prior $30M outlook), monetization of >$70M of 45Z tax credits in 2026 (vs $52M in 2025) with $20M already closed and ~ $50M remaining, a carbon business run rate of >$30M/year (ex‑banked CFR sales), sale of ~17M retroactive Canadian CFR credits to be recognized in Q3, a debottleneck to raise Gevo North Dakota capacity to ~75M gal/yr (≈10–15% uplift) by year‑end (debottleneck CapEx ~ $24M and fully funded), a targeted Stage 2 expansion to ~150M gal/yr with financing on track in H2 2026 and completion in 2028, FEL‑3 ATJ‑30 capex estimate of $600M for a 30M gal/yr project with FID targeted by year‑end, and a one‑time non‑cash impairment of $176M related to prior South Dakota work; management expects full‑year operating cash flow to be neutral to positive and meaningful positive cash flow in H2.Gevo Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 177.51M | 160.58M | 16.91M | 17.20M | 1.18M | 533.00K |
| Gross Profit | 76.17M | 48.54M | 4.91M | 5.21M | -7.52M | -7.15M |
| EBITDA | -162.14M | 10.25M | -56.46M | -45.05M | -88.95M | -53.82M |
| Net Income | -212.89M | -33.84M | -78.64M | -66.22M | -98.01M | -59.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 490.71M | 718.93M | 583.94M | 650.32M | 700.75M | 645.38M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 58.15M | 1.09M | 189.39M | 298.35M | 404.53M | 316.17M |
| Total Debt | 3.46M | 167.52M | 70.62M | 70.18M | 69.69M | 69.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 217.55M | 247.76M | 94.45M | 92.93M | 95.27M | 98.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 273.16M | 466.34M | 489.49M | 557.39M | 605.48M | 547.25M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -56.52M | -43.51M | -108.47M | -108.17M | -128.40M | -114.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -16.25M | -13.40M | -57.38M | -53.72M | -44.31M | -48.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -38.66M | -221.57M | -51.82M | 114.13M | 85.09M | -411.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -13.85M | 92.88M | -7.36M | -189.00K | 138.56M | 517.32M |
Gevo Technical Analysis
Positive
1.62
Price Trends
1.53
Positive
1.74
Negative
1.91
Negative
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
58.03
Neutral
82.54
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.59, above the 50-day MA of 1.53, and below the 200-day MA of 1.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEVO.
Gevo Risk Analysis
Gevo disclosed 5 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gevo reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gevo Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.44B | 15.87 | 15.77% | ― | 2.95% | 73.25% | |
64 Neutral | $325.79M | 6.12 | 21.15% | ― | 1.09% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $1.09B | 8.71 | 15.54% | ― | -21.51% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $1.48B | -543.08 | -0.22% | 2.73% | 7.63% | -104.57% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | $76.73M | -62.13 | -1.60% | 0.50% | 7.70% | -139.19% | |
48 Neutral | $400.52M | -1.87 | -8.52% | ― | 121.37% | -264.53% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GEVO
Gevo
1.69
-0.11
-6.11%
GPRE
Green Plains
15.59
7.15
84.72%
NTIC
Northern Technologies International
7.99
0.56
7.51%
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
4.18
3.12
294.34%
REX
Rex American
44.59
17.09
62.12%
SCL
Stepan Company
65.17
17.36
36.31%
Gevo Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Gevo Adds Independent Director to Strengthen Clean Energy Strategy
Positive
Jul 17, 2026
On July 16, 2026, Gevo announced that veteran scientist and executive Todd Werpy, Ph.D., will join its Board of Directors, with his appointment effective August 20, 2026 as a Class II director whose term runs until the 2027 annual meeting. The Boa...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Gevo Shareholders Back Directors, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Gevo, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders via online webcast, with 57.1% of outstanding voting power represented, satisfying quorum requirements. Shareholders voted on director elections, ratification of the independ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.