Gevo (GEVO)
NASDAQ:GEVO
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Gevo
(NASDAQ:GEVO)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(17.65% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/09/26
The score reflects improving operations and a strong, low-leverage balance sheet, but is constrained by persistent cash burn/negative free cash flow and weak technical momentum. Valuation is also a headwind given the extremely high P/E, while the earnings call adds support through better adjusted EBITDA and 2026 targets but highlights meaningful financing and execution risk on Project NorthStar.
Positive Factors
Low-Leverage Balance Sheet
Very low corporate leverage provides a durable financial cushion to fund operations and invest in project development without immediate refinancing pressure. This reduces bankruptcy and liquidity risk, gives management flexibility to pursue opportunistic financing for growth, and supports multi‑year project timelines.
Negative Factors
Negative Operating Cash Flow & FCF
Persistent negative operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow imply ongoing cash burn and continued dependence on external funding or asset sales until operations consistently convert EBITDA to cash. This structural cash gap increases dilution or financing risk over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low-Leverage Balance Sheet
Very low corporate leverage provides a durable financial cushion to fund operations and invest in project development without immediate refinancing pressure. This reduces bankruptcy and liquidity risk, gives management flexibility to pursue opportunistic financing for growth, and supports multi‑year project timelines.
Read all positive factors
Gevo (GEVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$445.44M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)467.2
Beta (1Y)1.41
Revenue Growth314.95%
EPS Growth58.49%
CountryUS
Employees122
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.14
Shares Outstanding242,882,400
10 Day Avg. Volume1,970,752
30 Day Avg. Volume2,436,862
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)1.00
Price to Sales (P/S)2.91
P/FCF Ratio-10.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.75Price Target Upside414.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$187.82M
Gevo Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gevo, Inc. operates as a renewable fuels company. It operates through four segments: Gevo, Agri-Energy, Renewable Natural Gas, and Net-Zero. The company commercializes gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel to achieve zero carbon emissions, and reduc...
How the Company Makes Money
Gevo’s business model has historically been centered on (1) technology and intellectual-property commercialization and (2) developing, contracting, and potentially operating low-carbon fuel production capacity (notably SAF). Revenue and cash gener...
Gevo Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized materially stronger operating performance and a clear plan to scale into higher-margin businesses: revenue grew ~48% YoY, Q1 adjusted EBITDA turned positive (from -$15M to +$9M), carbon and CDR sales show expanding commercial traction, and engineering/offtake progress on Project NorthStar plus a preliminary Ara Energy expansion partnership signal multiple growth vectors. Offsets include continued GAAP losses ($22M net loss), negative operating cash flow driven by timing of tax credit monetization, only partial offtake coverage for the flagship ATJ project, and elevated execution and financing risk following withdrawal from the DOE loan guarantee. On balance, operational momentum, improving non‑GAAP profitability, concrete engineering progress, and partnership interest appear to outweigh the financing and policy risks in the near term.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $43.0M versus $29.0M in Q1 2025, an increase of approximately 48.3% year-over-year, driven by stronger production, improved margins, and carbon attribute monetization.
Negative Updates
Net Loss and Ongoing GAAP Losses
Net loss attributable to Gevo of $22.0M (EPS $0.09) in Q1 2026 — EPS was unchanged from Q1 2025 — indicating continued GAAP-level losses despite non-GAAP improvement.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $43.0M versus $29.0M in Q1 2025, an increase of approximately 48.3% year-over-year, driven by stronger production, improved margins, and carbon attribute monetization.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to roughly $30 million of adjusted EBITDA for the 12 months of 2026 while reaffirming a goal of reaching a $40 million annualized adjusted EBITDA run-rate by year-end; they said Project NorthStar could contribute about $150 million of adjusted EBITDA per year when fully online and that they expect to secure project financing for NorthStar by the end of 2026 (targeting ~60% project leverage), with FEL2 complete and FEL3 on track this quarter to a +/-10% capital estimate and roughly half of financeable long‑term offtakes already secured (versus a typical 70–80% contracted range for financing). They expect the North Dakota debottlenecking to boost that segment’s adjusted EBITDA by ~10–15%, plan to spend ~$26 million of capex this year (funded internally) for debottlenecking/site work, and disclosed Q1 metrics including $43M revenue (vs. $29M Y/Y), $9M Q1 adjusted EBITDA (vs. a $15M loss prior year), a $22M net loss ($0.09/share), ~$39M cash, negative operating cash flow of $21M (including $17M of tax credits not yet monetized and ~$4M one‑time refinancing costs), Q1 production of 18M gallons of low carbon ethanol (current nameplate 67M gal/yr), RNG of ~92k BTUs (+15% Y/Y), and nearly 20k tons of engineered CDRs generated in Q1.Gevo Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 174.42M | 160.58M | 16.91M | 17.20M | 1.18M | 533.00K |
| Gross Profit | 59.80M | 48.54M | 4.91M | 5.21M | -7.52M | -7.15M |
| EBITDA | 27.09M | 6.46M | -56.46M | -45.05M | -88.95M | -53.82M |
| Net Income | -11.76M | -33.84M | -78.64M | -66.22M | -98.01M | -59.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 653.50M | 718.93M | 583.94M | 650.32M | 700.75M | 645.38M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 78.90M | 1.09M | 189.39M | 298.35M | 404.53M | 316.17M |
| Total Debt | 3.48M | 167.52M | 70.62M | 70.18M | 69.69M | 69.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 198.80M | 247.76M | 94.45M | 92.93M | 95.27M | 98.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 447.75M | 466.34M | 489.49M | 557.39M | 605.48M | 547.25M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -34.64M | -43.51M | -108.47M | -108.17M | -128.40M | -114.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -10.49M | -13.40M | -57.38M | -53.72M | -44.31M | -48.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -31.40M | -221.57M | -51.82M | 114.13M | 85.09M | -411.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -14.13M | 92.88M | -7.36M | -189.00K | 138.56M | 517.32M |
Gevo Technical Analysis
Negative
1.70
Price Trends
2.08
Negative
2.09
Negative
1.97
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
32.63
Neutral
14.66
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEVO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.20, below the 50-day MA of 2.08, and below the 200-day MA of 1.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GEVO.
Gevo Risk Analysis
Gevo disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gevo reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gevo Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.64B | 6.38 | 14.68% | ― | 1.35% | 51.46% | |
66 Neutral | $1.27B | 8.60 | -2.02% | ― | -20.16% | 83.66% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $344.73M | 22.86 | 6.00% | ― | -3.69% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $1.20B | -6.91 | -1.15% | 3.33% | 5.46% | -125.23% | |
52 Neutral | $75.56M | -597.73 | -1.07% | 1.33% | 5.55% | -120.30% | |
51 Neutral | $445.44M | 467.17 | -2.47% | ― | 314.95% | 58.49% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GEVO
Gevo
1.83
0.67
57.76%
GPRE
Green Plains
18.19
14.12
346.93%
NTIC
Northern Technologies International
7.96
0.72
9.90%
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
4.46
3.59
415.61%
REX
Rex American
49.68
29.10
141.40%
SCL
Stepan Company
52.93
0.69
1.31%
Gevo Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Gevo Transitions Former CEO to Long-Term Consulting Role
Neutral
Apr 27, 2026
Gevo, Inc. reported that former Chief Executive Officer Patrick R. Gruber retired from his role on April 1, 2026, and subsequently entered into a long-term consulting arrangement with the company. Under a Consulting Services Agreement effective Ma...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gevo Withdraws DOE Loan Application, Refocuses on ATJ-30
Negative
Apr 15, 2026
On April 15, 2026, Gevo withdrew its application for a U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantee tied to the ATJ-60 synthetic aviation fuel project in Lake Preston, South Dakota, which had previously received a conditional commitment extended to Ap...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Gevo Announces Upcoming Board Change as Director Steps Down
Neutral
Mar 16, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Gevo, Inc. announced that board member Angelo Amorelli has informed the company he will not stand for re-election at Gevo’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. He will remain on the board until his current term expires at...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gevo Refinances Debt and Expands North Dakota Credit Facilities
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 6, 2026, Gevo completed a refinancing transaction with Orion Infrastructure Capital that consolidated its North Dakota term debt with debt from its renewable natural gas subsidiary into a $175 million loan facility and enabled the rede...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.