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Gevo (GEVO)
NASDAQ:GEVO
Earnings Data
Report Date
May 13, 2026After Close (Confirmed)
Period Ending
2026 (Q1)Consensus EPS Forecast
-0.02Last Year’s EPS
-0.09Same Quarter Last Year
Moderate Buy
Based on 1 Analysts Ratings
Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial momentum: a transformational 2025 driven by the Red Trail acquisition, record ethanol production, meaningful CO2 sequestration, three consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA, positive Q4 operating cash flow, and clear plans to expand capacity and pursue ATJ‑30 with sizeable long‑term upside. Management also articulated concrete near‑term targets (≈$40M annualized adjusted EBITDA, neutral to positive cash flow in 2026), active commercialization of carbon and digital traceability products, and partnerships to scale. Key risks remain around completing project financing (DOE/EDF loan guarantee timing), the timing and pricing of carbon/credit markets, and the need to scale advanced products (cellulosic/ATJ) — but overall the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Company Guidance
Record Operational and Production Results
Gevo North Dakota produced a record ~69 million gallons of low‑carbon ethanol in 2025, achieved a yield of nearly 3 gallons per bushel (near theoretical maximum), produced ~2 million gallons of corn fiber cellulosic ethanol, and sequestered 173,000 metric tons of CO2 (exceeding the 165,000 ton benchmark). The company reported three consecutive quarters of positive non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA and generated positive cash flow from operations of $20 million in Q4 2025.
Transformational Financial Improvements
Full‑year 2025 revenue was $161 million (up 849% year‑over‑year). Loss from operations improved (decreased by $71 million YoY), non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA increased by $74 million YoY to $16 million for the year, and cash flow from operations increased by $44 million YoY. Year‑end cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totaled $117 million (a $9 million increase versus Q3).
Monetization of Production Tax Credits and Carbon Value
Gevo sold $52 million of production tax credits related to Gevo North Dakota in 2025 and received ~$41 million in cash proceeds in 2025 (remainder expected Q1 2026). Q4 saw ~80% of carbon benefits attached to ethanol gallons sold; the company built an inventory of roughly 30,000 tons of CDRs to meet future spot and contract demand. Management cites voluntary CDR price assumptions roughly $100–$300/ton and compliance markets (e.g., Canada) up to ~$200+/ton.
Clear Growth Strategy and Capital Plan
Board approved a capital plan to expand Gevo North Dakota to ~75 million gallons/year to increase co‑products, energy efficiency and CO2 capture (targeting ≥200,000 metric tons/year sequestration). Management plans to deploy ~ $26 million of capital in 2026, expects most debottlenecking/expansion projects to have 1–2 year paybacks, and is targeting annualized non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA of roughly $40 million (≈$10 million per quarter) and neutral to positive operating cash flow in 2026.
ATJ‑30 Project (Project North Star) Progress and Upside
Project North Star (30M gallon ATJ plant at North Dakota) is being advanced with a goal of FID in 2026 and has a conditional commitment from DOE/EDF for a loan guarantee. Management projects that adding ATJ‑30 could enable up to ~$150 million/year in adjusted EBITDA from fuels, carbon value and co‑products and describes a modular, replicable 'franchise' build strategy. Approximately half of ATJ‑30 output is already indicated under contracts.
Strategic Acquisitions, Partnerships and Commercial Tools
The successful acquisition and integration of Red Trail Energy (now Gevo North Dakota) materially improved adjusted EBITDA and cash flow. Gevo is signing LOIs with third‑party ethanol producers, collaborating with Frontier Infrastructure for CO2 transport/storage options, advancing Verity (traceability/compliance) with increasing customer traction and a partnership with Bushel, and pursuing licensing/partner deals (e.g., Praj/I BA diesel).
Operational Efficiency and Debottlenecking Potential
Management highlighted opportunities to debottleneck the plant to increase ethanol, co‑products and CO2 capture, lower CI scores, optimize production tax credits, and improve operational reliability — steps expected to materially support the company's $40M adjusted EBITDA target.
GEVO Earnings History
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat
Missed
GEVO Earnings-Related Price Changes
Report Date | Price 1 Day Before | Price 1 Day After | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Mar 05, 2026 | $1.89 | ― | ― |
Nov 10, 2025 | $2.12 | $2.09 | -1.42% |
Aug 11, 2025 | $1.25 | $1.99 | +59.20% |
May 13, 2025 | $1.24 | $1.15 | -7.26% |
Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.
FAQ
When does Gevo (GEVO) report earnings?
Gevo (GEVO) is schdueled to report earning on May 13, 2026, After Close (Confirmed).
What is Gevo (GEVO) earnings time?
Gevo (GEVO) earnings time is at May 13, 2026, After Close (Confirmed).
Where can I see when companies are reporting earnings?
You can see which companies are reporting today on our designated earnings calendar.
What companies are reporting earnings today?
You can see a list of the companies which are reporting today on TipRanks earnings calendar.
What is GEVO EPS forecast?
GEVO EPS forecast for the fiscal quarter 2026 (Q1) is -0.02.