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Trinseo (TSE)
NYSE:TSE
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Trinseo (TSE) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE

Trinseo

(NYSE:TSE)

Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(2.04% Upside)
Trinseo's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by negative margins and high leverage. Technical analysis further supports a bearish outlook. While the earnings call highlights some strategic initiatives, the company's challenges with demand and pricing pressures weigh heavily on its prospects.

Trinseo (TSE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Trinseo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrinseo PLC, a materials solutions provider, manufactures and sells plastics and latex binders in the United States, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Engineered Materials, Latex Binders, Base Plastics, Polystyrene, Feedstocks, and Americas Styrenics. The Engineered Materials segment offers rigid compounds, including polycarbonate compounds, acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene compounds, and PC blends to consumer electronics and medical markets for equipment housing applications; thermoplastic elastomer soft plastic compounds, such as overmolds, sealings, tubing, and films for footwear shoe sole, personal care, consumer electronics, and automotive high-end applications; and PMMA products to building and construction, automotive, medical, and consumer goods applications. The Latex Binders segment provides styrene-butadiene, styrene-acrylate, vinylidene chloride, and butadiene-methacrylate latex products for the commercial and niche carpet markets, as well as performance latex products for the adhesive, building and construction, and technical textile paper markets. The Base Plastics segment offers various compounds and blends for automotive and other applications. This segment also engages in the acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene, styrene-acrylonitrile, and polycarbonate businesses. The Polystyrene segment provides general purpose polystyrenes and high impact polystyrene for use in appliances, food packaging and food service disposables, consumer electronics, and building and construction materials. The Feedstocks segment offers styrene monomer, a basic building block of plastics. The Americas Styrenics segment provides styrene and polystyrene. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrinseo generates revenue primarily through the sale of its materials and specialty products across multiple industries. The company operates through several segments, including Feedstocks, Base Plastics, and Specialty Plastics, each contributing to its overall revenue. Key revenue streams include the production and sale of styrenic polymers, synthetic rubber, and latex binders. Additionally, Trinseo benefits from strategic partnerships with major manufacturers and suppliers, which enhance its supply chain effectiveness and market reach. The company also focuses on sustainability initiatives, which not only align with market trends but can also open new revenue opportunities through eco-friendly product offerings and innovations.

Trinseo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there are notable achievements in cost savings, working capital improvement, and advancements in battery binder technology, the company faces significant challenges with lower-than-expected core business results, demand decline, and pricing pressures. The overall outlook hinges on resolving trade uncertainties and other macroeconomic factors.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
EBITDA Benefits and Cost Savings
In 2025, Trinseo expects to realize $105 million of EBITDA benefits from self-help actions, including $35 million in fixed cost savings, $30 million from mix improvement and commercial initiatives, and $40 million from a change in the polycarbonate business model.
Working Capital Improvement
The company has reduced working capital by $560 million over the past 3 years, including a 17-day reduction in the cash conversion cycle.
Sustainability and Growth in Recycled Products
Recycled plastic containing products grew 7% in the first half of 2025, and the company continues to make progress on its 2030 sustainability goals.
Battery Binder Technology Advancement
Trinseo's fourth generation VOLTABOND anode binder is launching, which supports long-lasting, fast charging, and high-energy density batteries. The company expects continued double-digit growth in this highly profitable platform.
Negative Updates
Lower-than-Expected Core Business Results
Second quarter results were slightly below expectations due to weaker-than-expected demand and unfavorable net timing associated with falling feedstock prices.
Demand Decline and Volume Decrease
First half 2025 volumes were 13% below prior year, with significant decreases in Latex Binders, paper and board applications, automotive applications, and polystyrene.
Pricing Pressure in Latex Binders
Latex Binders adjusted EBITDA was $9 million below prior year, with significant pricing pressure and lower volume in Europe and Asia.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Second quarter free cash flow was negative $3 million, in line with guidance.
Company Guidance
During the Trinseo Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the management provided guidance on several metrics and expectations for the year. The company anticipates realizing $105 million of EBITDA benefits from self-help actions in 2025, including $35 million in fixed cost savings, $30 million from mix improvement and commercial initiatives, and $40 million from changes in the polycarbonate business model. These measures are expected to counteract the demand weakness and margin degradation observed, aiming for a flat year-over-year adjusted EBITDA. Trinseo has made significant progress in reducing working capital by $560 million over three years, benefiting from a 17-day reduction in cash conversion cycle. Additionally, the company reported a 7% growth in recycled plastic products in H1 2025 and noted substantial volume increases in battery binders, with a 19% year-over-year growth. Despite current demand challenges, Trinseo expects full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $200 million, citing potential improvements from trade certainty, interest rate cuts, and regulatory reforms as triggers for demand recovery.

Trinseo Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Trinseo is facing significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, negative profitability margins, and substantial leverage. The income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow all reflect financial distress, with negative net profit margins, negative equity, and negative free cash flow.
Income Statement
25
Negative
Trinseo's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data shows a gross profit margin of 7.99% and a negative net profit margin of -10.37%. The company has experienced declining revenue, with a TTM revenue of $3.394 billion compared to $3.515 billion in the previous year, indicating a negative revenue growth rate. Negative EBIT and EBITDA margins further highlight operational difficulties.
Balance Sheet
20
Very Negative
The balance sheet indicates financial distress, with a negative stockholders' equity of -$679.2 million in the TTM period, resulting in a negative equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, suggesting high leverage and potential solvency issues. Return on equity is also negative due to the company's net losses.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Trinseo's cash flow statement reflects a challenging situation. The TTM free cash flow is negative at -$4.447 million, although it has improved from the previous year's -$77.5 million. Operating cash flow is negative, indicating difficulties in generating cash from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, further emphasizing cash flow challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.26B3.51B3.68B4.97B4.83B3.04B
Gross Profit237.00M265.60M142.30M272.30M698.90M315.60M
EBITDA137.70M177.50M-223.30M-118.60M593.90M239.20M
Net Income-389.70M-348.50M-701.30M-428.00M279.60M7.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.63B2.64B3.03B3.76B4.71B2.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments137.00M209.80M259.10M211.70M573.00M588.70M
Total Debt54.00M2.48B2.37B2.39B2.41B1.25B
Total Liabilities0.003.26B3.30B3.34B3.70B2.25B
Stockholders Equity2.63B-619.90M-268.00M420.30M1.01B590.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-58.40M-77.50M79.00M-104.70M335.00M173.10M
Operating Cash Flow-16.30M-14.20M148.70M43.50M452.70M255.40M
Investing Cash Flow-42.10M-55.10M-31.70M-164.00M-1.54B-24.20M
Financing Cash Flow79.00M26.40M-66.00M-233.70M1.08B-104.30M

Trinseo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.45
Price Trends
50DMA
2.70
Negative
100DMA
2.98
Negative
200DMA
3.72
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.09
Negative
RSI
44.58
Neutral
STOCH
36.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.35, below the 50-day MA of 2.70, and below the 200-day MA of 3.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE.

Trinseo Risk Analysis

Trinseo disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trinseo reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Trinseo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$4.42B11.984.56%2.00%-6.73%
65
Neutral
$2.76B41.89-0.69%3.32%1.49%-105.20%
64
Neutral
$24.75B19.3616.88%2.51%-10.59%-7.79%
63
Neutral
$2.13B113.811.55%1.90%-5.45%-87.13%
62
Neutral
$10.28B6.210.76%2.84%3.10%-36.03%
51
Neutral
$2.26B59.33-87.50%4.47%2.48%-459.90%
42
Neutral
$84.85M103.25%1.69%-7.97%13.42%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE
Trinseo
2.45
-1.27
-34.14%
IOSP
Innospec
85.72
-19.16
-18.27%
OLN
Olin
25.31
-15.03
-37.26%
PPG
PPG Industries
109.98
-11.83
-9.71%
SSL
Sasol
7.09
-0.08
-1.12%
CC
Chemours Company
15.66
-1.07
-6.40%

Trinseo Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Trinseo Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at AGM
Neutral
Jun 26, 2025

On June 25, 2025, Trinseo PLC held its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, where approximately 85.5% of the shares entitled to vote were represented. During the meeting, shareholders approved several key proposals, including the election of nine directors, the advisory approval of executive compensation, and the ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. Additionally, shareholders granted the Board authority to issue shares and opt out of statutory pre-emption rights, approved the price range for re-issuance of treasury shares, amended the Omnibus Incentive Plan, and approved the forfeiture of certain options by executive officers. These approvals are expected to impact Trinseo’s governance and financial strategies moving forward.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025