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Trinseo (TSE)
NYSE:TSE
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Trinseo (TSE) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE

Trinseo

(NYSE:TSE)

Rating:38Underperform
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-20.32% Downside)
Trinseo's overall stock score is primarily driven by its poor financial performance and bearish technical indicators. The company's financial health is precarious, with negative profitability margins and high leverage. Technical analysis shows a strong downtrend, with the stock trading below key moving averages and oversold conditions. Valuation metrics further highlight concerns, with a negative P/E ratio and low dividend yield. These factors collectively suggest significant risks for investors.

Trinseo (TSE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Trinseo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrinseo (TSE) is a global materials company and manufacturer of plastics, latex binders, and synthetic rubber, with a strong focus on sustainability and innovation. The company serves various sectors, including automotive, consumer goods, electronics, and construction, providing high-performance material solutions that meet the diverse needs of its customers. Trinseo's core products include polystyrene, polycarbonate, and various specialty polymers, which are essential in applications ranging from packaging to automotive components.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrinseo generates revenue primarily through the sale of its materials and specialty products across multiple industries. The company operates through several segments, including Feedstocks, Base Plastics, and Specialty Plastics, each contributing to its overall revenue. Key revenue streams include the production and sale of styrenic polymers, synthetic rubber, and latex binders. Additionally, Trinseo benefits from strategic partnerships with major manufacturers and suppliers, which enhance its supply chain effectiveness and market reach. The company also focuses on sustainability initiatives, which not only align with market trends but can also open new revenue opportunities through eco-friendly product offerings and innovations.

Trinseo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -1.57%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant cost savings and growth in strategic areas like battery binders, but these positives were overshadowed by weak demand, volume declines, and pricing pressures, especially in core segments like Latex Binders and automotive applications. Despite strategic progress in sustainability and growth initiatives, the overall environment remains challenging.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Cost Savings Achieved
Trinseo expects to realize $105 million of EBITDA benefits from self-help actions in 2025, including $35 million from restructuring initiatives, $30 million from commercial initiatives, and $40 million from changes in the polycarbonate business model.
Improvement in Working Capital
Over the past three years, Trinseo has reduced working capital by $560 million, with a 17-day reduction in the cash conversion cycle.
Growth in Battery Binders Segment
Battery binders volume grew 19% year-over-year in Q2 2025, with a 63% compounded annual growth rate over the past five years. The business is expected to continue double-digit growth over the next five years.
Sustainability and Corporate Social Responsibility Progress
Trinseo released its 15th Annual Sustainability and Corporate Social Responsibility report, highlighting progress towards 2030 sustainability goals.
Negative Updates
Weaker-than-Expected Demand
Core business results were below expectations due to weaker demand across most applications and unfavorable net timing associated with falling feedstock prices.
Significant Volume Decline
First half 2025 volumes were 13% below the prior year, with notable declines in Latex Binders, automotive applications, and polystyrene.
Pricing Pressure in Latex Binders
Latex Binders adjusted EBITDA was $9 million below the prior year due to lower volume in Europe and Asia and significant pricing pressure across all regions.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Second quarter free cash flow was negative $3 million, although this was in line with guidance.
Company Guidance
During Trinseo's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance that reflects both the challenges and strategic actions they are undertaking. Trinseo anticipates approximately $200 million in adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2025. They expect to realize $105 million of EBITDA benefits from self-help initiatives, including $35 million in fixed cost savings, $30 million from mix improvement and commercial initiatives, and $40 million from changes in the polycarbonate business model. Additionally, Trinseo has made significant progress in reducing working capital by $560 million over the past three years, including a 17-day reduction in their cash conversion cycle. The company is also seeing growth in higher-value applications, with recycled plastic products growing by 7% in the first half of 2025. Despite experiencing weaker-than-expected demand and unfavorable net timing associated with falling feedstock prices, the company remains focused on controlling fixed costs and working capital, while continuing to invest in key growth platforms such as their battery binders, which have shown a compound annual growth rate of 63% over the past five years.

Trinseo Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Trinseo is facing significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, negative profitability margins, and substantial leverage. The income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow all indicate financial distress, with negative stockholders' equity and cash flow difficulties.
Income Statement
25
Negative
Trinseo's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data shows a gross profit margin of 7.99% and a negative net profit margin of -10.37%. The company has experienced declining revenue, with a TTM revenue of $3.394 billion compared to $3.515 billion in the previous year, indicating a negative revenue growth rate. Negative EBIT and EBITDA margins further highlight operational difficulties.
Balance Sheet
20
Very Negative
The balance sheet indicates financial distress, with a negative stockholders' equity of -$679.2 million in the TTM period, resulting in a negative equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, suggesting high leverage and potential solvency issues. Return on equity is also negative due to the company's net losses.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Trinseo's cash flow statement reflects a challenging situation. The TTM free cash flow is negative at -$4.447 million, although it has improved from the previous year's -$77.5 million. Operating cash flow is negative, indicating difficulties in generating cash from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, further emphasizing cash flow challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.39B3.51B3.68B4.97B4.83B3.04B
Gross Profit271.00M265.60M142.30M272.30M698.90M315.60M
EBITDA171.00M177.50M-223.30M-118.60M593.90M239.20M
Net Income-352.00M-348.50M-701.30M-428.00M279.60M7.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.65B2.64B3.03B3.76B4.71B2.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments126.10M209.80M259.10M211.70M573.00M588.70M
Total Debt219.80M2.48B2.37B2.39B2.41B1.25B
Total Liabilities3.33B3.26B3.30B3.34B3.70B2.25B
Stockholders Equity-679.20M-619.90M-268.00M420.30M1.01B590.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-4.45M-77.50M79.00M-104.70M335.00M173.10M
Operating Cash Flow-58.47M-14.20M148.70M43.50M452.70M255.40M
Investing Cash Flow-52.80M-55.10M-31.70M-164.00M-1.54B-24.20M
Financing Cash Flow68.40M26.40M-66.00M-233.70M1.08B-104.30M

Trinseo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.51
Price Trends
50DMA
2.98
Negative
100DMA
3.17
Negative
200DMA
3.86
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.21
Positive
RSI
44.94
Neutral
STOCH
43.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.66, below the 50-day MA of 2.98, and below the 200-day MA of 3.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE.

Trinseo Risk Analysis

Trinseo disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trinseo reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Trinseo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
$24.54B19.2816.88%2.44%-10.59%-7.79%
61
Neutral
$2.05B109.561.55%1.97%-5.45%-87.13%
58
Neutral
$2.26B41.89-0.69%4.05%1.49%-105.20%
57
Neutral
$3.40B-28.05%2.00%-4.31%-1421.83%
50
Neutral
$1.86B59.33-87.50%6.74%2.48%-459.90%
44
Neutral
AU$1.54B-7.28-27.94%4.40%-3.13%-36.41%
38
Underperform
$82.69M103.25%1.74%-7.97%13.42%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE
Trinseo
2.51
-0.16
-5.99%
IOSP
Innospec
85.02
-20.63
-19.53%
OLN
Olin
21.38
-18.46
-46.34%
PPG
PPG Industries
112.62
-4.40
-3.76%
SSL
Sasol
5.76
-1.44
-20.00%
CC
Chemours Company
14.65
-2.69
-15.51%

Trinseo Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Trinseo Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at AGM
Neutral
Jun 26, 2025

On June 25, 2025, Trinseo PLC held its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, where approximately 85.5% of the shares entitled to vote were represented. During the meeting, shareholders approved several key proposals, including the election of nine directors, the advisory approval of executive compensation, and the ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. Additionally, shareholders granted the Board authority to issue shares and opt out of statutory pre-emption rights, approved the price range for re-issuance of treasury shares, amended the Omnibus Incentive Plan, and approved the forfeiture of certain options by executive officers. These approvals are expected to impact Trinseo’s governance and financial strategies moving forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trinseo stock, see the TSE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 12, 2025