Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Alto Ingredients (ALTO)
NASDAQ:ALTO
Top Page
Alto Ingredients
(NASDAQ:ALTO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▲(20.19% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/14/26
The score is driven by improving (but still inconsistent) financial performance and a constructive earnings call with clearer 2026 catalysts (45Z credits, exports, and debt reduction). Technicals are supportive but overextended, while valuation is reasonable with no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Strategic Initiatives
The strategic focus on tax credits and CO2 utilization enhances profitability and sustainability, aligning with long-term industry trends.
Debt Management
Effective debt reduction and strong cash flow generation improve financial flexibility and reduce interest burden, supporting long-term stability.
Renewable Fuel Export Growth
Growth in renewable fuel exports strengthens market position and aligns with global sustainability trends, driving future revenue growth.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
The decline in net sales indicates challenges in market demand or competitive pressures, impacting long-term revenue growth potential.
Negative Profit Margins
Sustained negative profit margins reflect operational inefficiencies, which could hinder long-term profitability and competitive positioning.
Leadership Change
Leadership changes can disrupt strategic continuity and affect investor confidence, potentially impacting long-term strategic execution.
Alto Ingredients (ALTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$321.54M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.07M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.1
Beta (1Y)0.16
Revenue Growth-8.00%
EPS Growth-35.86%
CountryUS
Employees393
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.28
Shares Outstanding77,292,550
10 Day Avg. Volume2,161,036
30 Day Avg. Volume2,070,855
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.87
Price to Sales (P/S)0.23
P/FCF Ratio24.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.22
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.96
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.00Price Target Upside20.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$994.99M
Alto Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAlto Ingredients, Inc. produces and markets specialty alcohols and essential ingredients in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Marketing and Distribution, Pekin Production, and Other Production. It offers specialty alcohols used in mouthwash, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, hand sanitizers, disinfectants, and cleaners for health, home, and beauty markets; grain neutral spirits used in alcoholic beverages, flavor extracts, and vinegar, as well as corn germ used in corn oils and carbon dioxide for food and beverage markets; and essential ingredients include dried yeast, corn gluten meal, corn gluten feed, distillers grains, and liquid feed for commercial animal feed and pet food applications. The company also provides fuel-grade ethanol used as transportation fuel and distillers corn oil used as a biodiesel feedstock, as well as fuel-grade ethanol produced by third parties. In addition, it offers transportation, storage, and delivery services through third-party service providers. The company sells ethanol to integrated oil companies and gasoline marketers; essential ingredient feed products to dairies and feedlots; and corn oil to poultry and biodiesel customers. It operates five alcohol production facilities, including three plants in the Midwestern states of Illinois; and two facilities located in the Western states of Oregon and Idaho. The company was formerly known as Pacific Ethanol, Inc. and changed its name to Alto Ingredients, Inc. in January 2021. Alto Ingredients, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pekin, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlto Ingredients makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling alcohol products and related co-products. Its core revenue stream is the sale of alcohols, which include (1) fuel-grade ethanol sold into transportation fuels markets and (2) specialty alcohols (such as higher-purity or beverage/industrial-grade products) sold to customers in industrial, consumer, and other non-fuel applications. In addition to alcohol sales, the company earns revenue from co-products generated during production—most notably distillers grains (commonly used as animal feed ingredients) and corn oil—which are sold into agricultural and feed markets. The company’s earnings are influenced by commodity and market factors such as the spread between input costs (e.g., corn and natural gas) and the realized selling prices for ethanol, specialty alcohols, and co-products, as well as demand conditions in fuels and industrial markets. If applicable in a given period, the company may also benefit from regulatory or renewable-fuel-related market mechanisms tied to ethanol blending economics; specific details of such items are null.
Alto Ingredients Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a pronounced turnaround: substantial swings to positive net income and adjusted EBITDA, improved margins (crush and product returns), successful CO2 diversification and progress on 45Z credits, plus active debt reduction and a disciplined capital plan for 2026. Lowlights include lower volumes from idling a plant, derivative losses and one-time operational disruptions, incomplete 45Z eligibility for some assets, and seasonal/weather risks. Overall, the positive operational and financial progress materially outweighs the remaining challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Material Improvement in Profitability
Net income (attributable to common stockholders) of $21.5M in Q4 2025, a $63.5M improvement versus Q4 2024; full-year 2025 net income of $12.1M compared to a $60.3M loss in 2024 (swing ≈ $72.4M).
Large Increase in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA of $27.9M in Q4 2025 (vs. negative $7.7M in Q4 2024) and $44.7M for full-year 2025 (vs. negative $8.5M in 2024), representing positive swings of $35.6M and $53.2M, respectively.
Stronger Margins and Gross Profit Recovery
Q4 gross profit of $15.2M vs. a $1.4M gross loss a year ago (improvement of $16.6M); crush margin improved to $0.23/gal from $0.08/gal (+187.5%), contributing roughly $8M to the quarter.
Price Per Gallon and Export Mix Benefits
Average sales price rose to $2.10/gal from $1.88/gal (≈+11.7%), and increased renewable fuel export sales contributed about $5M in Q4 due to higher volumes and premiums.
45Z Tax Credit Progress and Expected Benefit
Qualified ~90M gallons combined annual production at Columbia and Pekin for 45Z credits; recognized $7.5M net proceeds for 2025 (≈$0.10/gal) and expect ~$0.20/gal (~$15M net) in 2026 with further upside from additional carbon-score reductions.
CO2 Diversification and Western Asset Improvement
Acquired Alto Carbonic in early 2025; contributed $1.4M to the Western Production segment in Q4 and materially improved Western Essential Ingredients return to 48% (from 30% a year ago, +18 percentage points). Consolidated return rose to 52% from 43% (+9 pts).
Stronger Cash Generation and Debt Reduction
Generated $10M cash from operations in Q4, ended year with $23M cash, paid down $16M on operating line and $5M on term debt during Q4; term loan outstanding $55M at year-end and planned further paydowns to reduce principal to ~$39M by end of Q1 2026.
Clear 2026 Capital and Operational Plan
2026 CapEx budget ≈ $25M (45% maintenance, 55% optimization), planned 8% capacity increase (~5M gallons) at Pekin Dry Mill, dock repairs and second alcohol loadout to be completed by end-2026 to improve throughput/redundancy.
Negative Updates
Lower Sales Volumes Due to Facility Idling
Net sales declined to $232M, $4M lower year-over-year, driven by a reduction in volumes sold of 10.6M gallons primarily from idling the Magic Valley facility.
Exposure to Derivative Losses and Asset Charges
Net negative combined realized and unrealized changes in derivatives of $4.2M in Q4; recorded $0.8M of asset impairment charges related to cleanup of CapEx projects in Q4 2025.
Operational Disruption from Weather and Damaged Infrastructure
Extreme cold in January 2026 curtailed Pekin production and disrupted river logistics; Pekin river loading dock sustained damage in April 2025 requiring repairs (insured), causing business interruption and one-time insurance-related accounting entries.
Some Facilities Do Not Yet Qualify for 45Z Credits
Pekin Wet Mill and ICP currently do not qualify for 45Z credits, limiting near-term upside from those assets until carbon scores or traceability improvements are implemented.
Traceability and Regulatory Uncertainty for 45Z
Feedstock traceability is not fully implemented across all bushels and will require farmer participation and potential regulatory clarity (Treasury proposal) to maximize 45Z eligibility and value.
Export Margin Compression and Market Seasonality
Although export volumes and demand increased, management noted some margin compression in high-quality export products; first quarter is seasonally challenging and sensitive to weather/logistics outages.
Company Guidance
Alto guided that for 2026 it expects to qualify roughly 90 million gallons of combined production for 45Z credits at Columbia and Pekin and, with ILUC removed from GREET, to receive about $0.20 per gallon (vs $0.10/gal recorded for 2025) totaling approximately $15 million in net proceeds; the company has contracted significant renewable fuel export volumes for H1 2026 and expects to match 2025 high‑quality alcohol volumes. Capital guidance calls for roughly $25 million of 2026 CapEx (≈45% maintenance, 55% optimization), including Pekin dock repairs and a second alcohol loadout to be completed by year‑end and a Pekin Dry Mill capacity increase of ~8% (~5 million gallons) to be implemented end Q3/Q4 (with normal Q2 outages at ICP and Columbia and a longer Pekin H2 outage); financial guidance/targets include reducing term debt from $55 million at year‑end 2025 by $10 million (Feb) and an additional $6 million (Mar) to about $39 million by end‑Q1, while operating from a year‑end cash balance of $23 million, Q4 operating cash flow of $10 million, and total borrowing availability of $102 million.Alto Ingredients Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are improving but remain uneven. Income statement rebounded to profitability in 2025, but revenue fell sharply and earnings have been volatile. Balance sheet leverage is manageable with improving debt-to-equity, though the equity base has declined. Cash flow turned positive in 2025, yet free cash flow history is volatile and operating cash flow covers only a modest portion of debt.Income Statement
Profitability improved materially in 2025, with net income turning positive ($13.3M) and margins recovering from the deep losses in 2024. However, revenue contracted sharply in 2025 (down ~47.5% year over year) and the business has shown meaningful earnings volatility over the last several years (profits in 2021, losses in 2022–2024, then a rebound in 2025). Overall, improving margins are a positive, but the magnitude of the revenue decline and inconsistent profitability keep the score below average.48
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears manageable with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.40 in 2025 (down from ~0.51 in 2024), and equity remaining sizable ($245.2M) relative to total assets ($388.8M). Returns also recovered to positive in 2025 after negative returns in 2022–2024, signaling better earnings power versus the capital base. The key weakness is the declining equity base from 2021 to 2025, reflecting prior losses and reduced balance-sheet cushion versus earlier years.62
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is mixed: 2025 produced positive operating cash flow ($13.2M) and positive free cash flow ($8.6M), a clear improvement from 2024’s negative operating and free cash flow. That said, free cash flow has been volatile (negative in 2022–2024) and 2025 free cash flow fell sharply versus the prior year (growth rate deeply negative). Operating cash flow covers only a modest portion of debt in 2025 (coverage ~0.22), leaving less financial flexibility if conditions soften.41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 917.93M | 965.26M | 1.22B | 1.34B | 1.21B |
| Gross Profit | 34.91M | 9.72M | 15.65M | -27.55M | 67.78M |
| EBITDA | 32.92M | -26.76M | 2.60M | -12.75M | 74.43M |
| Net Income | 13.34M | -58.98M | -28.00M | -41.60M | 46.08M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 388.79M | 401.44M | 454.24M | 478.32M | 484.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.67M | 35.47M | 30.01M | 36.46M | 50.61M |
| Total Debt | 97.60M | 114.67M | 105.46M | 87.27M | 63.65M |
| Total Liabilities | 143.54M | 176.38M | 174.68M | 170.23M | 139.74M |
| Stockholders Equity | 245.24M | 225.06M | 279.56M | 308.09M | 345.21M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.65M | -14.59M | -7.51M | -31.70M | 10.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 13.24M | -3.52M | 22.02M | 6.05M | 26.82M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.43M | -13.47M | -33.03M | -37.66M | 27.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.36M | 7.72M | 6.96M | 19.01M | -40.00M |
Alto Ingredients Technical Analysis
Positive
4.16
Price Trends
3.05
Positive
2.63
Positive
1.87
Positive
Market Momentum
0.50
Negative
59.60
Neutral
40.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.66, above the 50-day MA of 3.05, and above the 200-day MA of 1.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALTO.
Alto Ingredients Risk Analysis
Alto Ingredients disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alto Ingredients reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alto Ingredients Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.28B | 11.38 | 9.11% | ― | -3.10% | -22.31% | |
73 Outperform | $1.63B | 16.33 | 9.01% | 2.19% | -4.49% | -100.80% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $1.01B | 23.10 | 3.80% | 3.33% | 5.35% | -1.43% | |
60 Neutral | $321.54M | 16.09 | 6.00% | ― | -8.00% | -35.86% | |
58 Neutral | $1.08B | -5.45 | -15.81% | ― | -12.07% | -821.68% | |
53 Neutral | $551.20M | -19.47 | 0.26% | ― | 675.75% | 42.00% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
ALTO
Alto Ingredients
4.16
2.85
217.56%
GEVO
Gevo
2.27
0.97
74.62%
GPRE
Green Plains
15.50
10.44
206.32%
IOSP
Innospec
65.89
-30.29
-31.49%
REX
Rex American
38.71
20.25
109.70%
SCL
Stepan Company
44.84
-11.64
-20.61%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.