AFLAC (AFL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $56.49B
• Dividend Yield: 2.06%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: -17.57%
• EPS Growth: -53.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,694
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Insurance - Life
• EPS (TTM): 1.78
• Shares Outstanding: 534,831,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,819,812
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,596,400
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 20.57
• 1Y Price Target: $107.27
• Price Target Upside: -1.18% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $117.00 ▲(7.78% Upside)

AFLAC's overall stock score of 71 reflects a stable financial position with strong cash flow and profitability, despite challenges in revenue growth and recent cybersecurity concerns. The positive technical indicators and strong earnings call performance, particularly in Japan, contribute positively to the score. However, the valuation is moderate, and the cybersecurity breach poses a potential risk, slightly dampening the overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Product Launch

The successful launch of a new cancer product in Japan is expected to bolster production.

Sales Growth

A strong sales quarter from AFL's Japan operation boosted estimates and targets for 2025.

Shareholder Confidence

Buybacks exceeded expectations, which could be seen as a positive signal for shareholders.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

AFL's 1Q:25 operating EPS was below expectations, indicating potential pressure on the stock price.

Market Competition

The plan to launch a refreshed medical product in 2026 may face challenges due to a competitive market.

Valuation Concerns

Elevated price-to-earnings ratio might suggest the stock is overvalued, leading to potential downside.

AFLAC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates through two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care income support, GIFT, and whole and term life insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment plans under saving type insurance products in Japan. The Aflac U.S. segment provides cancer, accident, short-term disability, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, long-term care and disability, and term and whole life insurance products in the United States. It sells its products through sales associates, brokers, independent corporate agencies, individual agencies, and affiliated corporate agencies. The company was founded in 1955 and is based in Columbus, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

AFLAC generates revenue primarily through the sale of supplemental insurance policies, which provide coverage for various health-related expenses. The company's revenue model is built on premiums collected from policyholders, which are paid monthly or annually. Additionally, AFLAC earns investment income from the premiums it receives before they are paid out as claims. The company has established significant partnerships with employers, offering group policies that enhance employee benefits packages. AFLAC's strong brand recognition, effective marketing strategies, and customer-centric approach contribute to its ability to attract and retain policyholders, thereby driving its revenue growth.

AFLAC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AFLAC presents a mixed financial picture. While the company maintains strong profitability and a stable balance sheet, the decline in revenue and profitability margins in the TTM period raises concerns about future growth. The robust cash flow performance provides a cushion and indicates efficient cash management. Overall, AFLAC is financially stable but faces challenges in reversing the declining revenue trend.

Income Statement

AFLAC's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 5.48%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 55.88% and a net profit margin of 15.09% in the TTM period, although both have decreased compared to the previous year. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, reflecting reduced operational efficiency. Overall, while profitability remains strong, the declining revenue and margins suggest potential challenges ahead.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33 in the TTM period, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity has decreased to 9.33%, which is a decline from previous years, suggesting reduced profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio remains strong, indicating a solid capital structure. Despite the decline in ROE, the company's balance sheet remains robust with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

AFLAC's cash flow statement shows positive trends with a 5.89% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.78, highlighting efficient cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains stable at 1.0, demonstrating consistent cash flow relative to earnings. Overall, the cash flow position is strong, supporting the company's operations and potential investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.20B	19.13B	18.84B	19.15B	21.55B	22.26B
Gross Profit	4.68B	7.81B	18.84B	19.15B	21.55B	22.26B
EBITDA	3.19B	6.42B	5.26B	4.87B	5.21B	4.16B
Net Income	2.44B	5.44B	4.66B	4.42B	4.23B	4.78B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	124.74B	117.57B	126.72B	131.74B	157.54B	165.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	75.88B	71.50B	77.60B	79.68B	103.75B	111.02B
Total Debt	8.93B	7.50B	7.36B	7.44B	7.96B	7.90B
Total Liabilities	97.54B	91.47B	104.74B	111.60B	124.29B	131.53B
Stockholders Equity	27.20B	26.10B	21.98B	20.14B	33.25B	33.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.59B	2.71B	3.19B	3.88B	5.05B	5.96B
Operating Cash Flow	2.59B	2.71B	3.19B	3.88B	5.05B	5.96B
Investing Cash Flow	1.66B	2.78B	817.00M	-1.54B	-2.38B	-4.62B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.33B	-3.49B	-3.72B	-3.55B	-2.74B	-1.11B

AFLAC Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 108.55
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 108.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.94, above the 50-day MA of 103.26, and above the 200-day MA of 104.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFL.

AFLAC Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GL	78 Outperform	$11.46B	11.23	20.02%	0.72%	4.02%	13.01%
MET	77 Outperform	$53.57B	13.65	15.61%	2.72%	6.17%	59.22%
AFL	71 Outperform	$56.49B	23.88	9.15%	2.06%	-17.57%	-53.18%
PRU	71 Outperform	$38.31B	23.77	5.57%	4.92%	-1.80%	-42.18%
UNM	69 Neutral	$11.93B	8.38	13.95%	2.36%	1.69%	22.65%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.05B	11.73	10.24%	3.73%	9.66%	1.70%
PUK	68 Neutral	$33.63B	10.15	20.05%	1.78%	42.48%	304.90%

AFLAC Corporate Events

Aflac Completes $2 Billion Financial Transaction

On August 27, 2025, Aflac Incorporated completed a significant financial transaction involving the issuance and sale of Pre-Capitalized Trust Securities through two Delaware statutory trusts, raising a total of $2 billion. This arrangement allows Aflac to issue Senior Notes over a ten and thirty-year period, providing flexibility in funding and potentially impacting its financial strategy and market positioning.

Aflac Investigates June 2025 Cybersecurity Breach

On June 12, 2025, Aflac Incorporated identified unauthorized access to its network, which was promptly contained. The company remains operational, with no ransomware affecting its systems, and continues to serve its policyholders. Aflac has engaged third-party cybersecurity experts to assist in reviewing potentially impacted files, which may include sensitive personal information. The company plans to notify regulators and affected individuals, offering free credit monitoring and identity theft protection services. The full impact of the incident is still unknown.

Aflac Issues ¥74.9 Billion in Senior Notes

On May 29, 2025, Aflac Incorporated entered into a Note Purchase Agreement for a private placement of yen-denominated senior notes totaling ¥75.1 billion, intended for general corporate purposes. Subsequently, on June 5, 2025, the company issued registered senior notes amounting to ¥74.9 billion in a public offering, also aimed at general corporate purposes, reflecting Aflac’s strategic financial maneuvers to strengthen its capital structure.