AFLAC (AFL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $58.46B
• Dividend Yield: 2.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.67M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.49
• Revenue Growth: -17.57%
• EPS Growth: -53.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,694
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Life
• EPS (TTM): 1.78
• Shares Outstanding: 534,831,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,824,929
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,667,944
• PEG Ratio: 0.44
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 20.57
• 1Y Price Target: $108.00
• Price Target Upside: -3.02% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $117.00 ▲(5.06% Upside)

AFLAC's overall stock score of 71 reflects a stable financial position with strong cash flow and profitability, despite challenges in revenue growth and recent cybersecurity concerns. The positive technical indicators and strong earnings call performance, particularly in Japan, contribute positively to the score. However, the valuation is moderate, and the cybersecurity breach poses a potential risk, slightly dampening the overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Strong Performance in Japan

The significant sales growth in Japan, especially in cancer insurance, highlights AFLAC's product appeal and market penetration, ensuring sustained revenue from this key market.

Cash Flow Strength

Strong cash flow growth indicates AFLAC's efficient cash management and ability to fund operations and investments, supporting long-term financial health.

Capital Deployment and Shareholder Returns

Robust capital returns through buybacks and dividends demonstrate AFLAC's commitment to shareholder value, enhancing investor confidence and long-term investment appeal.

Negative Factors

Decline in Revenue Growth

The decline in revenue growth suggests potential challenges in maintaining market share and competitive positioning, which could impact future profitability.

Cybersecurity Breach

The cybersecurity breach poses risks to AFLAC's reputation and regulatory compliance, potentially affecting customer trust and operational stability.

Increased Expenses in Japan

Rising expenses in Japan, particularly in technology, could pressure margins and limit profitability, challenging AFLAC's cost management strategies.

AFLAC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AFLAC Incorporated (AFL) is a leading provider of supplemental insurance in the United States and Japan, specializing in products that help policyholders with expenses not covered by traditional health insurance. The company operates primarily in the life and health insurance sectors, offering a range of services including accident, cancer, critical illness, and disability insurance. AFLAC is well-known for its innovative approach to insurance, utilizing a direct sales model and a strong brand presence to reach consumers and businesses alike.

How the Company Makes Money

AFLAC generates revenue primarily through the sale of supplemental insurance policies, which provide coverage for various health-related expenses. The company's revenue model is built on premiums collected from policyholders, which are paid monthly or annually. Additionally, AFLAC earns investment income from the premiums it receives before they are paid out as claims. The company has established significant partnerships with employers, offering group policies that enhance employee benefits packages. AFLAC's strong brand recognition, effective marketing strategies, and customer-centric approach contribute to its ability to attract and retain policyholders, thereby driving its revenue growth.

AFLAC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AFLAC presents a mixed financial picture. While the company maintains strong profitability and a stable balance sheet, the decline in revenue and profitability margins in the TTM period raises concerns about future growth. The robust cash flow performance provides a cushion and indicates efficient cash management. Overall, AFLAC is financially stable but faces challenges in reversing the declining revenue trend.

Income Statement

AFLAC's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 5.48%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 55.88% and a net profit margin of 15.09% in the TTM period, although both have decreased compared to the previous year. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, reflecting reduced operational efficiency. Overall, while profitability remains strong, the declining revenue and margins suggest potential challenges ahead.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33 in the TTM period, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity has decreased to 9.33%, which is a decline from previous years, suggesting reduced profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio remains strong, indicating a solid capital structure. Despite the decline in ROE, the company's balance sheet remains robust with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

AFLAC's cash flow statement shows positive trends with a 5.89% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.78, highlighting efficient cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains stable at 1.0, demonstrating consistent cash flow relative to earnings. Overall, the cash flow position is strong, supporting the company's operations and potential investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.20B	19.13B	18.84B	19.15B	21.55B	22.26B
Gross Profit	4.68B	7.81B	18.84B	19.15B	21.55B	22.26B
EBITDA	3.19B	6.42B	5.26B	4.87B	5.21B	4.16B
Net Income	2.44B	5.44B	4.66B	4.42B	4.23B	4.78B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	124.74B	117.57B	126.72B	131.74B	157.54B	165.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	75.88B	71.50B	77.60B	79.68B	103.75B	111.02B
Total Debt	8.93B	7.50B	7.36B	7.44B	7.96B	7.90B
Total Liabilities	97.54B	91.47B	104.74B	111.60B	124.29B	131.53B
Stockholders Equity	27.20B	26.10B	21.98B	20.14B	33.25B	33.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.59B	2.71B	3.19B	3.88B	5.05B	5.96B
Operating Cash Flow	2.59B	2.71B	3.19B	3.88B	5.05B	5.96B
Investing Cash Flow	1.66B	2.78B	817.00M	-1.54B	-2.38B	-4.62B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.33B	-3.49B	-3.72B	-3.55B	-2.74B	-1.11B

AFLAC Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 111.36
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 111.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 107.97, above the 50-day MA of 105.09, and above the 200-day MA of 104.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFL.

AFLAC Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GL	77 Outperform	11.71B	11.43	19.66%	0.71%	4.02%	13.01%
UNM	73 Outperform	13.33B	9.18	13.42%	2.20%	1.69%	22.65%
MET	73 Outperform	54.28B	13.61	15.48%	2.73%	6.17%	59.22%
AFL	71 Outperform	$58.46B	24.71	9.15%	2.05%	-17.57%	-53.18%
PRU	69 Neutral	36.75B	22.71	5.33%	5.12%	-1.80%	-42.18%
PUK	68 Neutral	35.39B	10.63	13.06%	1.73%	42.45%	304.26%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

AFLAC Corporate Events

Aflac Completes $2 Billion Financial Transaction

On August 27, 2025, Aflac Incorporated completed a significant financial transaction involving the issuance and sale of Pre-Capitalized Trust Securities through two Delaware statutory trusts, raising a total of $2 billion. This arrangement allows Aflac to issue Senior Notes over a ten and thirty-year period, providing flexibility in funding and potentially impacting its financial strategy and market positioning.

Aflac Investigates June 2025 Cybersecurity Breach

On June 12, 2025, Aflac Incorporated identified unauthorized access to its network, which was promptly contained. The company remains operational, with no ransomware affecting its systems, and continues to serve its policyholders. Aflac has engaged third-party cybersecurity experts to assist in reviewing potentially impacted files, which may include sensitive personal information. The company plans to notify regulators and affected individuals, offering free credit monitoring and identity theft protection services. The full impact of the incident is still unknown.

Aflac Issues ¥74.9 Billion in Senior Notes

On May 29, 2025, Aflac Incorporated entered into a Note Purchase Agreement for a private placement of yen-denominated senior notes totaling ¥75.1 billion, intended for general corporate purposes. Subsequently, on June 5, 2025, the company issued registered senior notes amounting to ¥74.9 billion in a public offering, also aimed at general corporate purposes, reflecting Aflac’s strategic financial maneuvers to strengthen its capital structure.