AFLAC (AFL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $58.94B
• Dividend Yield: 2.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.31M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.40
• Revenue Growth: 2.31%
• EPS Growth: 15.46%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,694
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Life
• EPS (TTM): 2.64
• Shares Outstanding: 524,113,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,009,640
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,309,767
• PEG Ratio: -0.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.35
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.06
• 1Y Price Target: $111.88
• Price Target Upside: -0.50% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.37
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $17.11B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $125.00 ▲(11.17% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/25/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (profitability, conservative leverage, and improving 2025 cash flow). The earnings call supports stability via strong capital and shareholder returns, but near-term operating headwinds (Japan premium declines and U.S. claims pressure) temper upside. Technicals are neutral-to-mildly supportive, and valuation is reasonable with a ~2.1% yield.

Positive Factors

Capital & Liquidity

Substantially above-target capital and liquidity metrics provide durable financial flexibility. Strong SMR/ESR/RBC and excess holding-company liquidity support ongoing dividends, buybacks and tactical investments while absorbing underwriting or market shocks over the next several quarters.

Cash Generation

A material FCF rebound strengthens the firm’s ability to fund shareholder returns and strategic initiatives without stressing the balance sheet. While prior years were choppy, the recent step-up in cash conversion improves sustainability of capital deployment and financial resilience.

Product & Distribution Momentum

Strong product traction in Japan (large Miraito uptake) and expanding U.S. channels demonstrate durable commercial execution. High Japan persistency (93.1%) and faster growth in group/new channels point to sustained in-force stability and multi-channel diversification of future sales.

Negative Factors

Japan Premium Declines

Guidance for ongoing underlying premium declines in Japan implies constrained top-line growth in the company’s historically important market. Even with strong new sales, shrinking earned premiums limit revenue upside and pressure long-term premium-driven earnings over the next several quarters.

U.S. Claims Pressure

Rising benefit ratios signal durable underwriting and claims-cost pressure which compresses margins. Unless offset by pricing or product mix changes, higher loss experience reduces operating leverage and will weigh on U.S. profitability and ROE across upcoming reporting periods.

Investment Income Headwinds

Lower variable investment income reduces a key earnings pillar for an insurer that relies on invested premiums. A sustained drag on investment yield constrains overall margin and ROE, making the company more dependent on underwriting and capital actions to sustain returns.

AFLAC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates through two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care income support, GIFT, and whole and term life insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment plans under saving type insurance products in Japan. The Aflac U.S. segment provides cancer, accident, short-term disability, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, long-term care and disability, and term and whole life insurance products in the United States. It sells its products through sales associates, brokers, independent corporate agencies, individual agencies, and affiliated corporate agencies. The company was founded in 1955 and is based in Columbus, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

AFLAC generates revenue primarily through the sale of supplemental insurance policies. The company earns premiums from policyholders who pay for coverage, which contributes to its overall revenue stream. Additionally, AFLAC invests the premiums it collects in various financial instruments, generating investment income that further enhances its earnings. Key revenue streams include individual and group insurance policies, with significant contributions from both the U.S. and Japanese markets. The company has established partnerships with various employers and brokers to expand its reach and improve sales, and it benefits from a strong brand reputation that aids in customer retention and acquisition. Furthermore, AFLAC's ability to manage claims efficiently and maintain a low expense ratio supports its profitability.

AFLAC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals: healthy profitability and conservative leverage, plus a notable 2025 free-cash-flow rebound. Offsets include soft recent top-line momentum (2025 revenue decline) and a clear step-down in earnings power versus 2024 (lower margins/ROE).

Income Statement

Profitability remains strong, with 2025 net margin still healthy (~21%) and solid operating profitability (EBIT margin ~27%). However, the business shows limited top-line momentum: revenue declined in 2025 (about -2.9%) after only modest growth in 2024, and earnings fell meaningfully from 2024 to 2025 (net margin down from ~28% to ~21%). Overall: high profitability, but recent growth and earnings trajectory are softer.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative for the sector, with debt-to-equity consistently around ~0.24–0.37 and improving versus 2022–2023 levels. Equity also increased in recent years (notably from 2022 to 2025), supporting balance sheet resilience. Return on equity remains solid (about ~12% in 2025, though down sharply from ~21% in 2023–2024), which is the key watch item: profitability on equity has cooled even as capitalization strengthened.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving most recently: operating cash flow and free cash flow rose to $3.71B in 2025 (up strongly year over year, with free cash flow growth ~44%). That said, cash flow has been somewhat choppy across prior years (declines in several years before the 2025 rebound). Also, some provided cash-flow quality fields are zero/unclear in places (e.g., 2025 free cash flow to net income shown as 0.0), limiting visibility into how consistently cash converts relative to earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.44B	19.13B	18.84B	19.15B	21.55B
Gross Profit	6.79B	6.82B	18.84B	19.15B	21.55B
EBITDA	5.53B	6.42B	5.26B	4.87B	5.21B
Net Income	3.65B	5.44B	4.66B	4.42B	4.23B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	116.47B	117.57B	126.72B	131.74B	157.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.25B	71.50B	77.60B	79.68B	103.75B
Total Debt	8.41B	7.50B	7.36B	7.44B	7.96B
Total Liabilities	86.98B	91.47B	104.74B	111.60B	124.29B
Stockholders Equity	29.49B	26.10B	21.98B	20.14B	33.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.71B	2.71B	3.19B	3.88B	5.05B
Operating Cash Flow	3.71B	2.71B	3.19B	3.88B	5.05B
Investing Cash Flow	381.00M	2.78B	817.00M	-1.54B	-2.38B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.75B	-3.49B	-3.72B	-3.55B	-2.74B

AFLAC Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 112.44
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 112.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 113.17, above the 50-day MA of 110.83, and above the 200-day MA of 106.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.04 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFL.

AFLAC Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GL	78 Outperform	$11.33B	10.11	―	0.74%	3.73%	17.47%
AFL	73 Outperform	$58.94B	16.49	15.33%	2.10%	2.31%	15.46%
PUK	73 Outperform	$37.83B	11.73	20.19%	1.49%	42.45%	304.26%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
PRU	63 Neutral	$34.94B	10.04	11.86%	4.73%	-19.35%	-35.23%
UNM	63 Neutral	$11.73B	16.77	6.69%	2.22%	1.80%	-44.44%
MET	58 Neutral	$49.13B	15.99	12.10%	2.78%	0.82%	7.18%

AFLAC Corporate Events

Aflac Reports Mixed Q4 Results, Boosts Shareholder Returns

On February 4, 2026, Aflac reported that fourth-quarter 2025 total revenues fell to $4.9 billion from $5.4 billion a year earlier, with net earnings declining to $1.4 billion, or $2.64 per diluted share, from $1.9 billion, or $3.42 per share, largely reflecting lower net investment gains. Adjusted earnings dipped 5.4% to $818 million, but adjusted earnings per share inched up to $1.57, aided by share repurchases and despite softer variable investment income and a slightly weaker yen that did not affect per-share results. For full-year 2025, revenues decreased 9.3% to $17.2 billion and net earnings dropped to $3.6 billion from $5.4 billion, while adjusted earnings were roughly flat at $4.0 billion and adjusted EPS rose to $7.49, supported by capital returns. In Japan, premiums and investment income declined modestly for the quarter and year in both yen and dollar terms, but profitability remained strong and new annualized premium sales surged about 16% for 2025, driven by strong demand for the Miraito cancer product and supported by the newer Tsumitasu and Anshin Palette offerings. In the U.S., quarterly net earned premiums grew 4.0% and full-year premiums rose 2.9%, though pretax adjusted earnings margin compressed on higher benefits and expenses; new sales increased 3.0% for the year, underscoring Aflac’s focus on more profitable growth and strong policy persistency. The board reaffirmed its previously announced 5.2% first-quarter dividend increase to $0.61 per share and Aflac returned additional capital to shareholders by repurchasing $800 million of stock in the fourth quarter, leaving substantial authorization remaining and highlighting management’s confidence in cash flow generation and capital strength.

The most recent analyst rating on (AFL) stock is a Hold with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AFLAC stock, see the AFL Stock Forecast page.