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AFLAC
(NYSE:AFL)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$138.00
â–²(18.78% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/08/26
AFL’s score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high margins, solid ROE, and conservative balance sheet) and a generally constructive earnings outlook with significant capital returns. The main constraints are weak top-line/cash-flow momentum, only moderate technical strength, and the incremental risk from the Aflac Japan cybersecurity incident.
Positive Factors
High profitability and margins
Sustained high TTM margins and mid-teens ROE indicate durable underwriting discipline and pricing power in supplemental insurance. Strong margins provide recurring earnings cushion versus claims variability and support reinvestment, dividends, and buybacks over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weak top-line momentum
A sharp TTM revenue decline signals deteriorating premium growth dynamics that could constrain long-term earnings leverage. Even with margin resilience, persistent top-line weakness complicates growth targets, increases reliance on investment income, and pressures future underwriting scale.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability and margins
Sustained high TTM margins and mid-teens ROE indicate durable underwriting discipline and pricing power in supplemental insurance. Strong margins provide recurring earnings cushion versus claims variability and support reinvestment, dividends, and buybacks over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
AFLAC Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks total revenue into sources such as premiums, investment income, fees and other receipts, showing how much Aflac relies on underwriting versus returns on its investment portfolio. For Aflac, high premium income from supplemental insurance plus investment yield determine resilience to rate moves and market volatility, so this mix tells investors about growth drivers, margin stability, and interest-rate sensitivity.
Breaks total revenue into sources such as premiums, investment income, fees and other receipts, showing how much Aflac relies on underwriting versus returns on its investment portfolio. For Aflac, high premium income from supplemental insurance plus investment yield determine resilience to rate moves and market volatility, so this mix tells investors about growth drivers, margin stability, and interest-rate sensitivity.
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The Fly
The FlyAFLAC (AFL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$58.25B
Dividend Yield2.05%
Average Volume (3M)2.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.6
Beta (1Y)0.38
Revenue Growth13.57%
EPS Growth110.75%
CountryUS
Employees12,716
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.32
Shares Outstanding501,343,300
10 Day Avg. Volume2,033,034
30 Day Avg. Volume2,302,366
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.55
Price to Book (P/B)1.98
Price to Sales (P/S)3.35
P/FCF Ratio22.88
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$116.10Price Target Upside-0.07% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)7.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.69B
AFLAC Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aflac Incorporated, operating through its various subsidiary companies, focuses on delivering supplementary health and life insurance policies. The firm's business activities are structured into two primary divisions: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. In...
How the Company Makes Money
Aflac makes money primarily by underwriting insurance and investing the premiums it collects. (1) Premium revenue: The company sells supplemental insurance policies (e.g., accident, critical illness, hospital indemnity, disability, and certain lif...
AFLAC Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive tone: management highlighted solid capital ratios, strong shareholder returns, active investment portfolio repositioning expected to boost recurring income, and product momentum in both Japan (Tsumitasu, Anshin Palette) and U.S. group/dental & vision channels. Offsetting issues were modest — near-term sales comparisons in Japan versus a strong 2025 quarter, a small decline in adjusted book value per share, some investment income shortfalls, elevated lapse/reissue activity on new Japan products and higher U.S. group disability claims. Management maintained constructive outlooks for capital deployment, reserve/reinsurance actions and premium growth (2025–2027 net earned premium CAGR guidance of 3%–6%), suggesting that positives outweigh the contained challenges.Positive Updates
Adjusted EPS Growth (Excluding FX)
Adjusted earnings per diluted share rose 1.1% year-over-year to $1.80 excluding the effect of foreign currency; GAAP net earnings per diluted share reported at $1.63 (adjusted per Dan: $1.75).
Negative Updates
Japan Q2 Sales Compression vs Strong 2025 Comparisons
Aflac Japan sales declined 5.6% in Q2 (reported as JPY 19.6 billion in transcript) versus a strong Q2 2025 comp (Miraito launch). Net earned premiums in yen declined 3.7% for the quarter and underlying earned premiums (ex-reinsurance/paid-up/DPL effects) fell 1.4%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EPS Growth (Excluding FX)
Adjusted earnings per diluted share rose 1.1% year-over-year to $1.80 excluding the effect of foreign currency; GAAP net earnings per diluted share reported at $1.63 (adjusted per Dan: $1.75).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: management expects Aflac Japan sales to exceed 2025 and now sees Japan’s full‑year benefit ratio at the high end of its 60%–63% guidance (ytd 63.4%; Q2 Japan benefit ratio 64%), with Japan persistency 92.7% (Q2) and U.S. persistency 79.4%; company-level net earned premium growth in 2026 is expected to be just below the prior 3%–6% guidance (U.S. Q2 net earned premium +2.3%; Japan Q2 net earned premiums −3.7% in yen, underlying −1.4%), while the 2025–2027 net earned premium CAGR is still expected to be 3%–6%. Financial targets and capital metrics cited include adjusted EPS up ~1.1% ex‑FX to about $1.80 (reported adjusted ~$1.75; net EPS $1.63), adjusted book value per share −4.1% ex‑FX, adjusted ROE 12.7% (16.6% ex‑FX), pretax margins Japan 34.3% and U.S. 20.9%, expense ratios Japan 20.2% and U.S. 36.1%, U.S. benefit ratio 49.5% (Q2, +220 bps YoY), Aflac Inc. unencumbered liquidity $3.3B ($2.3B above $1B minimum), adjusted leverage 21.8% (target 20%–25%), estimated ESR 226% (240% with USP), combined RBC slightly above 600%, and continued capital returns ($1.3B to shareholders in Q2 — $983M buybacks and $309M dividends; $2.6B YTD); portfolio actions included $4.8B repositioned and an anticipated annualized NII uplift of >$50M.AFLAC Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.09B | 17.44B | 19.13B | 18.84B | 19.15B | 21.55B |
| Gross Profit | 9.75B | 6.79B | 6.82B | 18.84B | 19.15B | 21.55B |
| EBITDA | 6.90B | 5.53B | 6.42B | 5.26B | 4.87B | 5.21B |
| Net Income | 4.86B | 3.65B | 5.44B | 4.66B | 4.42B | 4.23B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 115.96B | 116.47B | 117.57B | 126.72B | 131.74B | 157.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 93.65B | 70.40B | 71.50B | 77.60B | 79.68B | 103.75B |
| Total Debt | 8.73B | 8.41B | 7.50B | 7.36B | 7.44B | 7.96B |
| Total Liabilities | 85.65B | 86.98B | 91.47B | 104.74B | 111.60B | 124.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 30.31B | 29.49B | 26.10B | 21.98B | 20.14B | 33.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.65B | 2.56B | 2.71B | 3.19B | 3.88B | 5.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.65B | 2.56B | 2.71B | 3.19B | 3.88B | 5.05B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.42B | 1.56B | 2.78B | 817.00M | -1.54B | -2.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.85B | -4.07B | -3.49B | -3.72B | -3.55B | -2.74B |
AFLAC Technical Analysis
Neutral
116.18
Price Trends
121.02
Negative
117.43
Positive
113.32
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.53
Positive
40.96
Neutral
20.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 116.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 121.22, below the 50-day MA of 121.02, and above the 200-day MA of 113.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AFL.
AFLAC Risk Analysis
AFLAC disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AFLAC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AFLAC Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $60.92B | 18.38 | 12.95% | 2.42% | 8.96% | -11.62% | |
76 Outperform | $14.20B | 21.33 | 6.43% | 2.19% | 3.34% | -48.74% | |
74 Outperform | $13.24B | 11.53 | 20.28% | 0.69% | 5.24% | 21.35% | |
72 Outperform | $41.45B | 10.78 | 12.00% | 4.58% | 9.38% | 144.26% | |
71 Outperform | $58.25B | 12.60 | 16.42% | 1.89% | 13.57% | 110.75% | |
70 Outperform | $8.16B | 3.61 | 21.99% | 4.35% | 12.32% | 97.86% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
AFL
AFLAC
117.45
12.24
11.63%
LNC
Lincoln National
43.32
2.80
6.92%
MET
Metlife
96.52
17.66
22.39%
PRU
Prudential Financial
120.24
16.28
15.66%
GL
Globe Life
175.55
36.19
25.97%
UNM
Unum Group
91.51
23.61
34.77%
AFLAC Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Aflac Posts Higher Earnings Amid Currency Headwinds
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Aflac reported second-quarter 2026 total revenues of $4.1 billion, down 1.0% year on year, while net earnings rose to $825 million, or $1.63 per diluted share, from $599 million, driven in part by lower net investment losses. Adjusted earnings fel...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Aflac Japan investigates cyber breach impacting customer data
Negative
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Aflac Japan disclosed that it had discovered on June 25, 2026 an unauthorized third party unlawfully accessing certain Japanese systems between June 15 and June 25, 2026, prompting the suspension of some systems while continuing ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Aflac Issues Yen-Denominated Senior Notes for Flexibility
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Aflac Incorporated issued a series of yen-denominated senior notes totaling ¥65.9 billion, with maturities ranging from 2029 to 2036 and coupon rates between 2.117% and 3.482%. The notes, which carry semi-annual interest paym...
Private Placements and Financing
Aflac Issues $500 Million 2036 Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Aflac Incorporated issued $500 million of 5.150% senior notes due 2036 in a registered public offering, with interest payable semi-annually and the notes ranking pari passu with the company’s existing unsecured senior debt. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.