AFLAC (AFL)
NYSE:AFL
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AFLAC
(NYSE:AFL)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$125.00
â–²(12.92% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (profitability, conservative leverage, and improving 2025 cash flow). The earnings call supports stability via strong capital and shareholder returns, but near-term operating headwinds (Japan premium declines and U.S. claims pressure) temper upside. Technicals are neutral-to-mildly supportive, and valuation is reasonable with a ~2.1% yield.
Positive Factors
Capital & Liquidity
Substantially above-target capital and liquidity metrics provide durable financial flexibility. Strong SMR/ESR/RBC and excess holding-company liquidity support ongoing dividends, buybacks and tactical investments while absorbing underwriting or market shocks over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Japan Premium Declines
Guidance for ongoing underlying premium declines in Japan implies constrained top-line growth in the company’s historically important market. Even with strong new sales, shrinking earned premiums limit revenue upside and pressure long-term premium-driven earnings over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Capital & Liquidity
Substantially above-target capital and liquidity metrics provide durable financial flexibility. Strong SMR/ESR/RBC and excess holding-company liquidity support ongoing dividends, buybacks and tactical investments while absorbing underwriting or market shocks over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
AFLAC (AFL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$57.16B
Dividend Yield2.1%
Average Volume (3M)2.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.6
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth2.31%
EPS Growth15.46%
CountryUS
Employees12,694
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.64
Shares Outstanding516,369,450
10 Day Avg. Volume1,761,014
30 Day Avg. Volume2,375,306
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.55
Price to Book (P/B)1.98
Price to Sales (P/S)3.35
P/FCF Ratio22.88
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$113.78Price Target Upside2.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)7.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.92B
AFLAC Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates through two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care income support, GIFT,...
How the Company Makes Money
AFLAC generates revenue primarily through the sale of supplemental insurance policies. The company earns premiums from policyholders who pay for coverage, which contributes to its overall revenue stream. Additionally, AFLAC invests the premiums it...
AFLAC Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: notable commercial successes (strong Japan product sales, robust U.S. group and channel growth), excellent capital returns and solid liquidity/capital ratios, offset by near-term headwinds including declines in underlying Japan earned premiums, rising U.S. benefit ratios/claims pressure, modest investment income declines and some corporate losses/loan charge-offs. Management reiterated guidance ranges and emphasized strong capital flexibility and strategic investments to scale new businesses. Given the combination of meaningful operational strengths and material short-term pressures, the tone is cautious but stable.Positive Updates
Quarterly and Full-Year Earnings
Q4 net EPS $2.64 and adjusted EPS $1.57; FY2025 net EPS $6.82 and adjusted EPS $7.49. Adjusted EPS in Q4 increased 0.6% year-over-year (ex-FX). Adjusted book value per share (ex-FX) rose 0.5%.
Negative Updates
Japan Underlying Premiums Decline
Japan net earned premiums declined 1.9% in Q4 (yen terms); underlying earned premiums (ex-DPL, paid‑up, reinsurance) declined 1.2% in Q4. Management guides underlying earned premiums to decline 1–2% in 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly and Full-Year Earnings
Q4 net EPS $2.64 and adjusted EPS $1.57; FY2025 net EPS $6.82 and adjusted EPS $7.49. Adjusted EPS in Q4 increased 0.6% year-over-year (ex-FX). Adjusted book value per share (ex-FX) rose 0.5%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 outlook largely holds prior 2025–27 ranges: Aflac Japan expects underlying earned premiums to decline 1%–2%, an expense ratio of 20%–23%, a benefit ratio of 60%–63% and a pretax profit margin of 33%–36%; Aflac U.S. expects net earned premium growth at the lower end of a 3%–6% range, a benefit ratio of 48%–52%, an expense ratio of 36%–39% and a pretax margin of 17%–20%. The company reiterated strong capital and liquidity positions and flexibility — adjusted leverage 21.4% (target 20%–25%), SMR >970%, estimated ESR ~253% (USP adds ~18 pts), combined RBC ~575%, holding-company minimum liquidity lowered to $1.0B with unencumbered liquidity of $4.1B (~$3.1B above minimum) and an undrawn PCAP facility — and confirmed tactical capital deployment (Q4 buybacks $800M, Q4 dividends $303M; 2025 repurchases $3.5B and dividends $1.2B; Q1 2026 dividend +5.2%).AFLAC Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 17.44B | 19.13B | 18.84B | 19.15B | 21.55B |
| Gross Profit | 6.79B | 6.82B | 18.84B | 19.15B | 21.55B |
| EBITDA | 5.53B | 6.42B | 5.26B | 4.87B | 5.21B |
| Net Income | 3.65B | 5.44B | 4.66B | 4.42B | 4.23B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 116.47B | 117.57B | 126.72B | 131.74B | 157.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.25B | 71.50B | 77.60B | 79.68B | 103.75B |
| Total Debt | 8.41B | 7.50B | 7.36B | 7.44B | 7.96B |
| Total Liabilities | 86.98B | 91.47B | 104.74B | 111.60B | 124.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 29.49B | 26.10B | 21.98B | 20.14B | 33.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.56B | 2.71B | 3.19B | 3.88B | 5.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.56B | 2.71B | 3.19B | 3.88B | 5.05B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.56B | 2.78B | 817.00M | -1.54B | -2.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.07B | -3.49B | -3.72B | -3.55B | -2.74B |
AFLAC Technical Analysis
Positive
110.70
Price Trends
111.22
Negative
110.25
Positive
107.78
Positive
Market Momentum
0.31
Negative
52.52
Neutral
82.47
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 110.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 108.94, below the 50-day MA of 111.22, and above the 200-day MA of 107.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFL.
AFLAC Risk Analysis
AFLAC disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AFLAC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AFLAC Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $11.44B | 9.74 | 20.64% | 0.74% | 3.73% | 17.47% | |
73 Outperform | $57.16B | 10.60 | 13.05% | 2.10% | 2.31% | 15.46% | |
69 Neutral | $37.35B | 3.72 | 26.87% | 1.49% | 42.45% | 304.26% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $12.38B | 18.10 | 6.63% | 2.22% | 1.80% | -44.44% | |
60 Neutral | $33.72B | 11.10 | 11.44% | 4.73% | -19.35% | -35.23% | |
58 Neutral | $48.17B | 15.53 | 12.01% | 2.78% | 0.82% | 7.18% |
* Financial Sector Average
AFL
AFLAC
110.70
4.49
4.23%
MET
Metlife
73.88
3.04
4.29%
PRU
Prudential Financial
96.90
0.60
0.63%
PUK
Prudential
30.30
10.54
53.32%
GL
Globe Life
145.84
25.64
21.33%
UNM
Unum Group
76.67
1.52
2.02%
AFLAC Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Aflac Reports Mixed Q4 Results, Boosts Shareholder Returns
Neutral
Feb 4, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Aflac reported that fourth-quarter 2025 total revenues fell to $4.9 billion from $5.4 billion a year earlier, with net earnings declining to $1.4 billion, or $2.64 per diluted share, from $1.9 billion, or $3.42 per share, larg...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.