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AFLAC
(NYSE:AFL)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$131.00
â–²(14.39% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/30/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial quality and profitability with manageable leverage, supported by reasonable valuation. Offsetting factors are limited technical visibility (missing indicators), execution risk from Japan earned-premium pressure and earnings volatility highlighted on the call, and added headline/regulatory risk from the disclosed Japan cybersecurity breach.
Positive Factors
Profitability & Margins
Aflac's high TTM net and EBIT margins indicate durable underwriting profitability and operational leverage. Sustained margins provide consistent internal cash to fund dividends, buybacks and strategic initiatives, cushioning earnings through underwriting and investment cycles over months.
Negative Factors
In-force Premium Pressure in Japan
Reported declines in Japan earned premium and management's note that ~JPY90B annual sales are required to reach flat in-force premium highlight a structural headwind. Sustained high new-business production is needed to offset lapses and paid-up migrations, increasing execution risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability & Margins
Aflac's high TTM net and EBIT margins indicate durable underwriting profitability and operational leverage. Sustained margins provide consistent internal cash to fund dividends, buybacks and strategic initiatives, cushioning earnings through underwriting and investment cycles over months.
Read all positive factors
AFLAC Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAFLAC (AFL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$61.53B
Dividend Yield2.1%
Average Volume (3M)2.89M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.7
Beta (1Y)0.38
Revenue Growth7.25%
EPS Growth37.42%
CountryUS
Employees12,694
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.80
Shares Outstanding508,984,900
10 Day Avg. Volume2,909,314
30 Day Avg. Volume2,891,151
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.55
Price to Book (P/B)1.98
Price to Sales (P/S)3.35
P/FCF Ratio22.88
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.37
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.22
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$113.25Price Target Upside-1.11% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)7.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.79B
AFLAC Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aflac Incorporated, operating through its various subsidiary companies, focuses on delivering supplementary health and life insurance policies. The firm's business activities are structured into two primary divisions: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. In...
How the Company Makes Money
Aflac makes money primarily by underwriting insurance and investing the premiums it collects. (1) Premium revenue: The company sells supplemental insurance policies (e.g., accident, critical illness, hospital indemnity, disability, and certain lif...
AFLAC Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call portrayed a positive tone driven by very strong Japan new-business momentum (25.5% sales growth), solid U.S. premium growth and persistency, healthy capital/liquidity levels and continued shareholder returns. Offsetting items include pressure on earned premiums in Japan, some one-time reserve and investment-related volatility (charge-offs and real estate impairments), a weaker Corporate & Other quarter, and near-term impacts from reinsurance cessions. Management emphasized strategic execution (product, distribution, reinsurance expansion) and capital flexibility to manage these headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Japan Sales Momentum
Aflac Japan delivered a 25.5% year-over-year increase in first-quarter sales, driven by new products including Onsen Tallett (medical) and Miraito (cancer insurance), and broad channel growth across agencies, alliance partners and banks.
Negative Updates
Japan Earned Premium Pressure
Japan net earned premiums declined 3.8% in yen terms for the quarter; underlying earned premiums (excluding reinsurance, paid-up policies and deferred profit liability) declined 1.3%, indicating ongoing headwinds to in-force premium despite strong new business sales.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Japan Sales Momentum
Aflac Japan delivered a 25.5% year-over-year increase in first-quarter sales, driven by new products including Onsen Tallett (medical) and Miraito (cancer insurance), and broad channel growth across agencies, alliance partners and banks.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year guidance of a Japan benefit ratio of 60–63% and a U.S. benefit ratio of 42–52%, and said it will maintain adjusted leverage in a 20–25% corridor (Q1 21.2%) with $3.4B of unencumbered liquidity (≈$2.4B above a $1.0B minimum); estimated regulatory ESR was ~227% (243% including USP) and combined RBC ≈560%. Q1 operating and capital metrics cited included: Japan sales +25.5%, Japan net earned premiums −3.8% (underlying −1.3%), Japan persistency 92.8%, Japan expense ratio 19.5%, Japan pretax margin 35%; U.S. sales +2.9%, U.S. net earned premium +3.5%, U.S. persistency 79.3%, U.S. benefit ratio 47.2%, U.S. expense ratio 38.3%, U.S. pretax margin 20.4%; adjusted EPS up ~6.6% YoY to $1.77 excl. FX, adjusted ROE 12.8% (16.4% excl. FX), adjusted book value per share +0.2% excl. FX. Capital deployment will remain tactical — Q1 returned $1.3B to shareholders (repurchases $1.0B, dividends $315M) — and management expects Japan sales roughly in line with 2025 (~JPY74B, with an internal aspiration nearer JPY80B) while noting ~JPY90B of annual new sales would be needed to reach flat earned‑premium growth.AFLAC Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.22B | 17.44B | 19.13B | 18.84B | 19.15B | 21.55B |
| Gross Profit | 8.70B | 6.79B | 6.82B | 18.84B | 19.15B | 21.55B |
| EBITDA | 6.67B | 5.53B | 6.42B | 5.26B | 4.87B | 5.21B |
| Net Income | 4.64B | 3.65B | 5.44B | 4.66B | 4.42B | 4.23B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 116.28B | 116.47B | 117.57B | 126.72B | 131.74B | 157.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 71.50B | 70.40B | 71.50B | 77.60B | 79.68B | 103.75B |
| Total Debt | 7.91B | 8.41B | 7.50B | 7.36B | 7.44B | 7.96B |
| Total Liabilities | 86.32B | 86.98B | 91.47B | 104.74B | 111.60B | 124.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 29.96B | 29.49B | 26.10B | 21.98B | 20.14B | 33.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.93B | 2.56B | 2.71B | 3.19B | 3.88B | 5.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.93B | 2.56B | 2.71B | 3.19B | 3.88B | 5.05B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.16B | 1.56B | 2.78B | 817.00M | -1.54B | -2.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.57B | -4.07B | -3.49B | -3.72B | -3.55B | -2.74B |
AFLAC Technical Analysis
Positive
114.52
Price Trends
115.96
Positive
113.38
Positive
111.09
Positive
Market Momentum
1.22
Negative
59.65
Neutral
82.61
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 114.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 117.76, below the 50-day MA of 115.96, and above the 200-day MA of 111.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFL.
AFLAC Risk Analysis
AFLAC disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AFLAC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AFLAC Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $14.75B | 19.42 | 7.07% | 2.22% | 4.19% | -45.74% | |
76 Outperform | $14.01B | 12.04 | 20.32% | 0.74% | 3.96% | 18.81% | |
74 Outperform | $57.95B | 17.43 | 12.88% | 2.78% | 5.57% | -16.00% | |
73 Outperform | $34.27B | 8.88 | 36.71% | 1.49% | 66.84% | 83.13% | |
68 Neutral | $61.53B | 13.69 | 16.08% | 2.10% | 7.25% | 37.42% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $39.19B | 11.63 | 10.91% | 4.73% | 4.08% | 54.01% |
* Financial Sector Average
AFL
AFLAC
120.47
19.74
19.60%
MET
Metlife
90.46
13.59
17.67%
PRU
Prudential Financial
114.28
11.94
11.66%
PUK
Prudential
28.13
4.29
18.00%
GL
Globe Life
176.98
56.74
47.20%
UNM
Unum Group
89.51
9.70
12.16%
AFLAC Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Aflac Japan investigates cyber breach impacting customer data
Negative
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Aflac Japan disclosed that it had discovered on June 25, 2026 an unauthorized third party unlawfully accessing certain Japanese systems between June 15 and June 25, 2026, prompting the suspension of some systems while continuing ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Aflac Issues Yen-Denominated Senior Notes for Flexibility
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Aflac Incorporated issued a series of yen-denominated senior notes totaling ¥65.9 billion, with maturities ranging from 2029 to 2036 and coupon rates between 2.117% and 3.482%. The notes, which carry semi-annual interest paym...
Private Placements and Financing
Aflac Issues $500 Million 2036 Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Aflac Incorporated issued $500 million of 5.150% senior notes due 2036 in a registered public offering, with interest payable semi-annually and the notes ranking pari passu with the company’s existing unsecured senior debt. ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Aflac shareholders approve directors, pay, auditor at meeting
Neutral
May 7, 2026
At Aflac Incorporated’s annual shareholders meeting held on May 4, 2026, investors voted on four key items, including the election of 11 directors, an advisory say-on-pay resolution for named executive officers, ratification of KPMG LLP as i...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Aflac Reports Strong Q1 2026 Revenue and Earnings
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
Aflac Incorporated on April 29, 2026 reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $4.3 billion, up 27.9% year over year, with net earnings surging to $1.0 billion, or $1.98 per diluted share, from $29 million, or $0.05 per share, driven largely by a swi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.