Lincoln National (LNC)
NYSE:LNC
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Lincoln National
(NYSE:LNC)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▲(5.26% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is held back primarily by inconsistent cash generation and weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these risks are attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a constructive earnings-call outlook highlighting improved capital strength, liquidity, and higher remittance expectations.
Positive Factors
Strengthened capital & liquidity
Management rebuilt statutory capital and holding-company liquidity, restoring RBC above target and improving leverage. This durable capital buffer reduces insolvency risk, supports regulatory flexibility, funds subsidiary remittances, and enables meaningful capital returns without aggressive balance-sheet repairs.
Negative Factors
Persistent weak cash generation
Despite recent improvement, historical negative operating and free cash flow in multiple years signals structural earnings-to-cash conversion risk. This weak cash generation can force dependence on credit lines, restrict sustainable shareholder returns, and leave the company vulnerable in downside scenarios.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strengthened capital & liquidity
Management rebuilt statutory capital and holding-company liquidity, restoring RBC above target and improving leverage. This durable capital buffer reduces insolvency risk, supports regulatory flexibility, funds subsidiary remittances, and enables meaningful capital returns without aggressive balance-sheet repairs.
Read all positive factors
Lincoln National (LNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.50B
Dividend Yield3.93%
Average Volume (3M)2.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.9
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth35.76%
EPS Growth636.97%
CountryUS
Employees9,783
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.21
Shares Outstanding190,090,410
10 Day Avg. Volume1,690,476
30 Day Avg. Volume2,438,684
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.10
Price to Book (P/B)0.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.45
P/FCF Ratio-48.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.22Price Target Upside26.37% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)7.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$19.88B
Lincoln National Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Annuities, Retirement Plan Services, Life Insurance, and Group Protection. The A...
How the Company Makes Money
Lincoln National primarily makes money through insurance and retirement/annuity operations. In its insurance businesses (including workplace benefits), it earns premium revenue from policyholders and employer-sponsored plans; a portion of that pre...
Lincoln National Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks down income sources, highlighting which products or services drive sales and revealing diversification or dependency on specific revenue streams.
Breaks down income sources, highlighting which products or services drive sales and revealing diversification or dependency on specific revenue streams.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLincoln National Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated substantial progress: multi-quarter and multi-year earnings growth, record annuity account balances, strong alternative investment returns, improved capital ratios and liquidity, and a meaningful improvement in free cash flow conversion. Management also highlighted several strategic shifts (more spread-based annuity mix, Bermuda affiliate expansion, captive consolidation) that strengthen durability of earnings. Near-term headwinds include ongoing variable annuity outflows, Retirement Plan Services outflows, higher G&A/variable compensation in Q4, and technical reporting changes that will shift ~$50 million of NII out of annuities operating income in 2026. Overall, the positive operational and capital progress materially outweighs the manageable near-term and reporting-related challenges.Positive Updates
Adjusted Operating Income Growth
Fourth quarter adjusted operating income increased 31% year-over-year; Q4 adjusted operating income available to common stockholders was $434 million ($2.21 per diluted share). Full year 2025 adjusted income from operations available to common shareholders was over $1.5 billion, a 23% improvement vs. 2024 and the highest full-year adjusted operating income in four years.
Negative Updates
Variable Annuity Outflows and Mix Shift
Variable annuity net outflows continued in Q4, consistent with recent quarters; management expects intentionally lower VA volumes in 2026 as part of reducing market sensitivity. Shift toward spread-based products lowers ROA (lower return on assets) although it stabilizes earnings.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted Operating Income Growth
Fourth quarter adjusted operating income increased 31% year-over-year; Q4 adjusted operating income available to common stockholders was $434 million ($2.21 per diluted share). Full year 2025 adjusted income from operations available to common shareholders was over $1.5 billion, a 23% improvement vs. 2024 and the highest full-year adjusted operating income in four years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 and the medium term will prioritize capital strength, disciplined profitable growth and increased remittances to the holding company, with subsidiary remittances expected to rise to roughly $1.2–$1.3 billion (vs. $845 million in 2025) and potential capital returns to shareholders in the $400–$600+ million range over the next two years (the dividend is expected to be ~ $350 million, implying buybacks could be modest in 2026); they reiterated strong capital metrics (RBC restored above the 400% target with a ~20% buffer and leverage down ~500 bps since 2023 to target levels, ending the year near ~439%), improved cash generation (adjusted operating income > $1.5 billion in 2025 vs $908 million in 2023, free cash flow conversion 45% in 2025 vs 35% in 2023), and holding company liquidity of ~$1.1 billion (net ~$655 million after $400 million prefunding for 2026 debt); operational guidance included expectable Q1 2026 headwinds for annuities (two fewer fee days and mortality reset), a reallocation that would move about $50 million annually of annuities net interest income to non‑operating, continued emphasis on lower market sensitivity in annuities (annuity account balances net of reinsurance $175 billion, spread‑based products 30% of balances, RILA 22%, fixed annuity balances +20% YoY; annuities FY operating income ~ $1.2 billion), Group Protection at ~9% margin and $493 million operating earnings (+16%) with ~7% premium growth, Life improving to $146 million operating earnings (ex‑assumption review) from a $71 million loss, and Retirement Plan Services focusing on profitability as net outflows persist (Q4 avg balances $124 billion, base spreads 110 bps, Q4 net outflows ~ $1 billion).Lincoln National Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 18.21B | 17.99B | 11.71B | 18.93B | 17.61B |
| Gross Profit | 10.44B | 4.60B | 50.00M | 2.43B | 3.90B |
| EBITDA | 1.56B | 4.45B | -773.00M | 2.07B | 4.96B |
| Net Income | 1.18B | 3.27B | -752.00M | 1.36B | 3.78B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 417.20B | 390.83B | 372.41B | 334.22B | 387.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.50B | 26.72B | 92.10B | 103.08B | 121.36B |
| Total Debt | 6.27B | 6.36B | 6.12B | 6.63B | 6.63B |
| Total Liabilities | 406.30B | 382.56B | 365.52B | 329.12B | 367.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.91B | 8.27B | 6.89B | 5.10B | 20.27B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -167.00M | -2.01B | -2.07B | 3.61B | -217.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -167.00M | -2.01B | -2.07B | 3.61B | -217.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.01B | 821.00M | -3.33B | -11.65B | -3.58B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 7.88B | 3.62B | 5.43B | 8.77B | 4.71B |
Lincoln National Technical Analysis
Negative
34.20
Price Trends
36.06
Negative
39.02
Negative
38.36
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.27
Negative
46.19
Neutral
27.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LNC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 34.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.19, below the 50-day MA of 36.06, and below the 200-day MA of 38.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LNC.
Lincoln National Risk Analysis
Lincoln National disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lincoln National reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
Lincoln National Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $11.44B | 9.74 | 20.64% | 0.74% | 3.73% | 17.47% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $3.26B | 15.25 | 5.75% | 2.91% | -4.58% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $3.98B | 11.12 | 8.60% | 1.54% | -1.61% | 15.79% | |
61 Neutral | $6.50B | 6.91 | 12.03% | 3.93% | 35.76% | 636.97% | |
58 Neutral | $7.15B | 276.83 | 0.26% | 2.98% | 24.94% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $3.47B | 8.55 | 7.20% | ― | 27.71% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
LNC
Lincoln National
34.20
5.62
19.66%
CNO
CNO Financial
42.25
5.05
13.56%
GL
Globe Life
145.84
25.64
21.33%
BHF
Brighthouse Financial
60.73
10.23
20.26%
JXN
Jackson Financial Incorporation
101.62
31.22
44.35%
FG
F&G Annuities & Life Inc
24.03
-9.06
-27.38%
Lincoln National Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lincoln National Enters New $2 Billion Credit Agreement
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
On March 27, 2026, Lincoln National Corporation entered into an unsecured, third amended and restated credit agreement with a bank syndicate led by Bank of America, N.A., replacing a December 21, 2023 facility. The new agreement provides up to $2....
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lincoln National Reports Strong Q4 and 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Lincoln Financial on February 12, 2026 reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting strong momentum across all business segments and improved profitability versus the prior year. Fourth-quarter net income available to common sh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.