Lincoln National (LNC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.19B
• Dividend Yield: 4.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.24
• Revenue Growth: 11.33%
• EPS Growth: -38.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,783
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Insurance - Life
• EPS (TTM): 2.36
• Shares Outstanding: 189,580,410
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,541,818
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,023,014
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -52.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.03
• 1Y Price Target: $40.70
• Price Target Upside: -3.35% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $42.00 ▼(-0.26% Downside)

Lincoln National's overall stock score of 71 reflects a combination of strong technical indicators and attractive valuation, supported by positive earnings call insights and strategic corporate events. However, financial performance concerns, particularly around cash flow and leverage, moderate the score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

All four segments posted year-over-year sales growth.

Growth Strategy

The $825mm equity issuance for LNC will allow them to accelerate their deleveraging plan while also allowing them to accelerate growth in spread products.

Strategic Partnership

LNC announced a strategic relationship with Bain, whereby Bain is acquiring a 9.9% stake in LNC through an equity issuance, at $44 per share, which is a 25% premium to last 30 trading days but a 50% premium to the most recent close after the big recent market selloff.

Negative Factors

Earnings Impact

RPS earnings were impacted by a plan termination, and Annuities earnings were impacted by lower fees given ongoing VA outflows.

Market Risk

A partnership with Bain allows a further move out on the risk curve in a reasonable way and may also allow LNC to further derisk its life insurance exposure through additional risk transfer.

Lincoln National Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Annuities, Retirement Plan Services, Life Insurance, and Group Protection. The Annuities segment offers fixed, variable, and indexed variable annuities. The Retirement Plan Services segment provides employers with retirement plan products and services primarily in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace. This segment offers individual and group variable annuities, group fixed annuities, and mutual fund-based programs; and a range of plan services, including plan recordkeeping, compliance testing, participant education, and trust and custodial services. The Life Insurance segment provides life insurance products, including term insurance, such as single and survivorship versions of universal life insurance; variable universal life insurance; indexed universal life insurance products; and critical illness and long-term care riders. The Group Protection segment offers group non-medical insurance products comprising short and long-term disability, statutory disability and paid family medical leave administration and absence management services, term life, dental, vision and accident, and critical illness benefits and services to the employer marketplace through various forms of employee-paid and employer-paid plans. The company distributes its products through consultants, brokers, planners, agents, financial advisors, third-party administrators, and other intermediaries. Lincoln National Corporation was founded in 1905 and is based in Radnor, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Lincoln National generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source of income comes from the sale of life insurance and annuity products, where customers pay premiums or deposits that create a pool of funds for the company. The company earns money from these funds through investment income generated from the underlying assets. Additionally, Lincoln National collects management fees from its investment management services and earns income from the fees associated with retirement plans. Significant partnerships with financial advisors and institutions also enhance its distribution capabilities, allowing for a broader reach in the market. The company's diversified product offerings and strategic partnerships contribute to its overall earnings stability and growth.

Lincoln National Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lincoln National's financial performance shows a mixed picture. The company achieved a significant recovery in net income in 2024, improving profitability ratios. However, inconsistent revenue growth, high leverage, and negative cash flows remain areas of concern. Strategic focus on stabilizing cash flow and managing debt levels is essential for sustained financial health.

Income Statement

Lincoln National's income statement reflects a volatile performance. While the company achieved a strong turnaround in net income to $3.275 billion in 2024 from a loss in 2023, the overall revenue growth is inconsistent, with dips and rebounds over the years. The absence of positive EBIT and EBITDA margins in recent years indicates profitability challenges, though the net profit margin improved significantly in 2024 due to net income gains.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position with some concerns. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, indicating potential leverage risks, though it slightly improved in 2024. Return on equity surged to 39.60% in 2024, driven by higher net income, showcasing improved shareholder returns. However, the company's equity ratio is low, suggesting limited buffer against liabilities.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, primarily due to negative free cash flow and operating cash flow in recent years. Despite a significant increase in financing cash flow, the company struggles with cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates cash flow issues, though the operating cash flow to net income improved slightly due to the net income rise in 2024.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.27B	17.99B	11.64B	18.81B	19.23B	17.44B
Gross Profit	-249.00M	17.99B	11.64B	18.81B	19.23B	17.44B
EBITDA	1.30B	4.12B	-778.00M	42.20B	1.96B	35.90B
Net Income	1.14B	3.27B	-752.00M	1.36B	1.41B	499.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	370.63B	390.83B	372.41B	334.22B	387.30B	365.94B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.14B	26.72B	3.37B	103.08B	121.36B	124.75B
Total Debt	5.77B	6.36B	6.12B	6.46B	6.63B	6.68B
Total Liabilities	361.08B	382.56B	365.52B	329.12B	367.03B	6.68B
Stockholders Equity	9.55B	8.27B	6.89B	5.10B	20.27B	22.70B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	936.00M	-2.01B	-2.07B	4.03B	151.00M	534.00M
Operating Cash Flow	936.00M	-2.01B	-2.07B	4.03B	151.00M	534.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.73B	821.00M	-3.33B	-11.64B	-3.57B	-9.48B
Financing Cash Flow	4.46B	3.62B	5.43B	8.77B	4.32B	8.09B

Lincoln National Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 42.11
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.32, above the 50-day MA of 37.61, and above the 200-day MA of 34.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LNC.

Lincoln National Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FG	80 Outperform	$4.75B	14.43	8.40%	2.52%	1.78%	0.77%
CNO	73 Outperform	$3.92B	14.67	11.35%	1.64%	0.82%	-29.29%
LNC	71 Outperform	$8.19B	7.55	12.97%	4.27%	11.33%	-38.17%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.06B	11.97	10.24%	3.74%	9.75%	1.30%
GNW	67 Neutral	$3.55B	19.37	2.42%	―	2.61%	465.03%
BHF	63 Neutral	$2.53B	4.78	13.53%	―	59.27%	―
JXN	63 Neutral	$6.84B	82.50	0.30%	3.14%	27.18%	-100.02%

Lincoln National Corporate Events

Lincoln National Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results

On July 31, 2025, Lincoln Financial reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, driven by a diversified earnings mix and strategic execution. The company achieved a net income of $688 million and adjusted operating income of $427 million, with significant contributions from Group Protection and Annuities. The closed transaction with Bain Capital is expected to accelerate strategic priorities, enhancing Lincoln’s long-term value creation.