Lincoln National (LNC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.46B
• Dividend Yield: 5.65%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 1.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.39
• Revenue Growth: 47.95%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,783
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Insurance - Life
• EPS (TTM): 18.38
• Shares Outstanding: 170,695,160
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,680,014
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,537,814
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.34
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $37.44
• Price Target Upside: 17.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

Lincoln National's stock score reflects a balance of strengths and challenges. The company's financial performance shows signs of recovery but also highlights areas needing improvement, such as cash flow management. Technical indicators suggest caution, while the attractive valuation and positive corporate events offer a potential upside. The earnings call reinforces a positive outlook despite existing challenges in certain segments.

Positive Factors

Financial Outlook

LNC raised its 2026 free cash flow conversion guide, indicating a positive future outlook.

Financial Performance

LNC delivered solid 4Q:24 results, led by Group Benefits, with Group Protection sales increasing by 17% year over year.

Strategic Partnership

LNC announced a strategic relationship with Bain, with Bain acquiring a 9.9% stake at a 50% premium to the most recent close, potentially boosting LNC's market perception.

Negative Factors

Annuities Performance

Total annuity sales declined 15% in 4Q24, with annuities flows below expectations, contributing to significant outflows.

Earnings Volatility

Earnings volatility is likely to continue, potentially affecting investor confidence.

Life Insurance Segment

Life Insurance segment missed expectations due to higher mortality, impacting overall performance.

Lincoln National Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Annuities, Retirement Plan Services, Life Insurance, and Group Protection. The Annuities segment offers fixed, variable, and indexed variable annuities. The Retirement Plan Services segment provides employers with retirement plan products and services primarily in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace. This segment offers individual and group variable annuities, group fixed annuities, and mutual fund-based programs; and a range of plan services, including plan recordkeeping, compliance testing, participant education, and trust and custodial services. The Life Insurance segment provides life insurance products, including term insurance, such as single and survivorship versions of universal life insurance; variable universal life insurance; indexed universal life insurance products; and critical illness and long-term care riders. The Group Protection segment offers group non-medical insurance products comprising short and long-term disability, statutory disability and paid family medical leave administration and absence management services, term life, dental, vision and accident, and critical illness benefits and services to the employer marketplace through various forms of employee-paid and employer-paid plans. The company distributes its products through consultants, brokers, planners, agents, financial advisors, third-party administrators, and other intermediaries. Lincoln National Corporation was founded in 1905 and is based in Radnor, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Lincoln National Corporation earns its revenues through a variety of channels within the financial services sector. The primary revenue streams include premiums from life insurance policies, fees from annuity contracts, and asset management fees related to retirement plan services. The company also generates income through investment activities, where it manages reserves from collected premiums to earn returns. Additionally, Lincoln National benefits from strategic partnerships and distribution agreements with financial advisors, brokers, and other institutions, which help expand its customer base and enhance its market reach. These partnerships, along with its diversified product offerings, contribute significantly to its earnings and financial stability.

Lincoln National Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lincoln National shows a mixed financial picture. The company made a significant recovery in net income in 2024, improving profitability ratios. However, inconsistent revenue growth, high leverage, and negative cash flows remain areas of concern. Strategic focus on stabilizing cash flow and managing debt levels is essential for sustained financial health.

Income Statement

Lincoln National's income statement reflects a volatile performance. While the company achieved a strong turnaround in net income to $3.275 billion in 2024 from a loss in 2023, the overall revenue growth is inconsistent, with dips and rebounds over the years. The absence of positive EBIT and EBITDA margins in recent years indicates profitability challenges, though the net profit margin improved significantly in 2024 due to net income gains.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position with some concerns. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, indicating potential leverage risks, though it slightly improved in 2024. Return on equity surged to 39.60% in 2024, driven by higher net income, showcasing improved shareholder returns. However, the company's equity ratio is low, suggesting limited buffer against liabilities.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, primarily due to negative free cash flow and operating cash flow in recent years. Despite a significant increase in financing cash flow, the company struggles with cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates cash flow issues, though the operating cash flow to net income improved slightly due to the net income rise in 2024.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
18.44B	11.64B	18.81B	19.23B	17.44B
	Gross Profit
18.44B	11.64B	18.81B	19.23B	17.44B
	EBIT
0.00	-821.00M	-2.53B	815.00M	-276.00M
	EBITDA
0.00	-778.00M	42.20B	1.96B	35.90B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
3.27B	-752.00M	1.36B	1.41B	499.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
5.80B	3.37B	103.08B	121.36B	124.75B
	Total Assets
390.83B	372.41B	334.22B	387.30B	365.94B
	Total Debt
6.16B	6.12B	6.46B	6.63B	6.68B
	Net Debt
355.00M	2.76B	3.11B	4.01B	4.97B
	Total Liabilities
382.56B	365.52B	329.12B	367.03B	6.68B
	Stockholders Equity
8.27B	6.89B	5.10B	20.27B	22.70B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-2.01B	-2.07B	4.03B	151.00M	534.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
-2.01B	-2.07B	4.03B	151.00M	534.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
821.00M	-3.33B	-11.64B	-3.57B	-9.48B
	Financing Cash Flow
3.62B	5.43B	8.77B	4.32B	8.09B

Lincoln National Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 31.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LNC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 31.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.77, below the 50-day MA of 33.99, and below the 200-day MA of 32.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.93 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LNC.

Lincoln National Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FG	72 Outperform	$4.69B	7.33	18.12%	2.41%	27.35%	―
JXN	69 Neutral	$5.61B	6.63	9.49%	3.72%	3.55%	8.91%
GNW	66 Neutral	$2.82B	10.08	3.87%	―	4.06%	10092.54%
LNC	65 Neutral	$5.46B	1.74	43.24%	5.65%	47.95%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$12.46B	9.56	8.14%	17044.64%	12.63%	-4.25%
CNO	59 Neutral	$3.80B	13.27	12.47%	1.69%	-0.43%	-16.22%
BHF	49 Neutral	$3.38B	11.28	7.84%	―	14.74%	―

Lincoln National Corporate Events

Lincoln National Partners with Bain Capital for Growth

On April 9, 2025, Lincoln National Corporation announced a strategic partnership with Bain Capital, involving the sale of a 9.9% equity stake in Lincoln for $825 million. This transaction aims to provide Lincoln with growth capital to enhance its strategic priorities, including expanding spread-based earnings and optimizing its legacy life portfolio. The partnership also establishes Bain Capital as a strategic asset management partner, granting them management of a significant portion of Lincoln’s insurance subsidiaries’ assets. This collaboration is expected to accelerate Lincoln’s strategy, unlock value creation opportunities, and provide financial flexibility to reduce its leverage ratio.

Spark’s Take on LNC Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, LNC is a Neutral.

Lincoln National’s stock is moderately attractive with a score of 67. The significant recovery in net income and robust technical indicators are positive, while challenges in financial stability and ongoing issues in the life insurance segment remain concerns. The low P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield enhance its valuation appeal.

To see Spark’s full report on LNC stock, click here.

Lincoln National Expands Board with Industry Veteran

On March 3, 2025, Lincoln National Corporation’s Board of Directors expanded from ten to eleven members with the election of Jim Morris, a seasoned leader in the life insurance industry. Morris, who retired as Chairman, President, and CEO of Pacific Life Insurance Company in 2022, brings extensive experience in financial and risk management, which is expected to enhance Lincoln’s strategic vision and shareholder value.

Lincoln National Reports Strong Q4 2024 Earnings

On February 6, 2025, Lincoln Financial reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2024. The company achieved a net income of $1.7 billion for the fourth quarter, driven by changes in market risk benefits and the fair value of derivatives. Lincoln Financial’s performance was boosted by strong results in Group Protection and Annuities, with the latter seeing its highest full-year sales since 2019. The company emphasized its strategic focus on building a solid capital foundation and operational efficiency, resulting in positive developments across its business segments, including record sales and earnings in Group Protection and significant growth in Retirement Plan Services, which saw a 25% increase in total deposits for the year.

Lincoln National Board Resignation and Bylaws Amendment

On January 30, 2025, Janet Liang resigned from her position as a director on the Board of Lincoln National Corporation to pursue a new employment opportunity, with her resignation effective immediately. The Board subsequently amended the company’s Bylaws to reduce the number of authorized Board members from eleven to ten, effective January 31, 2025, which impacts the governance structure by streamlining the Board.