Lincoln National (LNC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.66B
• Dividend Yield: 5.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.32
• Revenue Growth: 8.31%
• EPS Growth: -2.30%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,783
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Insurance - Life
• EPS (TTM): 1.60
• Shares Outstanding: 170,733,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,276,458
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,598,295
• PEG Ratio: 0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.48
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -24.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.83
• 1Y Price Target: $38.63
• Price Target Upside: 18.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $34.00 ▲(4.71%Upside)

Lincoln National's overall score reflects a mixed financial performance with notable strengths in valuation and recent corporate events. The recovery in net income and strategic corporate initiatives are positives. However, inconsistent revenue growth, high leverage, and negative cash flows remain significant challenges.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow

LNC raised its 2026 FCF conversion guide, indicating a positive outlook for future cash flow generation and financial health.

Financial Performance

LNC's Group Protection segment delivered strong results with operating income significantly exceeding forecasts, indicating robust operational performance.

Strategic Partnership

LNC announced a strategic relationship with Bain, whereby Bain is acquiring a 9.9% stake in LNC through an equity issuance at a significant premium, which could enhance investor confidence and potentially boost stock value.

Negative Factors

Earnings Impact

RPS earnings were negatively impacted by a plan termination, and Annuities earnings suffered due to lower fees from ongoing VA outflows.

Life Insurance Performance

The Life Insurance segment missed expectations due to higher mortality, which could hamper overall financial performance.

Price Target

The price objective for LNC has been reduced, and a Hold rating has been issued, suggesting limited upside potential for the stock.

Lincoln National Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Annuities, Retirement Plan Services, Life Insurance, and Group Protection. The Annuities segment offers fixed, variable, and indexed variable annuities. The Retirement Plan Services segment provides employers with retirement plan products and services primarily in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace. This segment offers individual and group variable annuities, group fixed annuities, and mutual fund-based programs; and a range of plan services, including plan recordkeeping, compliance testing, participant education, and trust and custodial services. The Life Insurance segment provides life insurance products, including term insurance, such as single and survivorship versions of universal life insurance; variable universal life insurance; indexed universal life insurance products; and critical illness and long-term care riders. The Group Protection segment offers group non-medical insurance products comprising short and long-term disability, statutory disability and paid family medical leave administration and absence management services, term life, dental, vision and accident, and critical illness benefits and services to the employer marketplace through various forms of employee-paid and employer-paid plans. The company distributes its products through consultants, brokers, planners, agents, financial advisors, third-party administrators, and other intermediaries. Lincoln National Corporation was founded in 1905 and is based in Radnor, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Lincoln National Corporation generates revenue through a multi-faceted business model centered around its four main segments. In the Life Insurance segment, the company earns premiums from policyholders for the life insurance coverage it provides. The Annuities segment generates revenue through the sale of variable and fixed annuity products, which provide clients with retirement income solutions. The Retirement Plan Services segment earns fees from managing and administering retirement plans for employers and their employees. Lastly, the Group Protection segment generates revenue through the sale of group insurance products, such as disability and dental insurance, to employers who offer these benefits to their employees. The company's earnings are also influenced by investment income from the assets it manages, as well as strategic partnerships and distribution agreements with financial institutions and independent brokers that help expand its market reach.

Lincoln National Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lincoln National demonstrates a mixed financial performance. While there's a notable recovery in net income in 2024, ongoing issues such as inconsistent revenue growth, high leverage, and negative cash flows pose significant concerns. The company needs to focus on stabilizing cash flow and managing debt levels for sustained financial health.

Income Statement

Lincoln National's income statement reflects a volatile performance. While the company achieved a strong turnaround in net income to $3.275 billion in 2024 from a loss in 2023, the overall revenue growth is inconsistent, with dips and rebounds over the years. The absence of positive EBIT and EBITDA margins in recent years indicates profitability challenges, though the net profit margin improved significantly in 2024 due to net income gains.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position with some concerns. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, indicating potential leverage risks, though it slightly improved in 2024. Return on equity surged to 39.60% in 2024, driven by higher net income, showcasing improved shareholder returns. However, the company's equity ratio is low, suggesting limited buffer against liabilities.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, primarily due to negative free cash flow and operating cash flow in recent years. Despite a significant increase in financing cash flow, the company struggles with cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates cash flow issues, though the operating cash flow to net income improved slightly due to the net income rise in 2024.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
18.78B	17.99B	11.64B	18.81B	19.23B	17.44B
	Gross Profit
-335.00M	17.99B	11.64B	18.81B	19.23B	17.44B
	EBIT
1.54B	4.02B	-821.00M	-2.53B	815.00M	-276.00M
	EBITDA
1.54B	4.12B	-778.00M	42.20B	1.96B	35.90B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.33B	3.27B	-752.00M	1.36B	1.41B	499.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
26.63B	26.72B	3.37B	103.08B	121.36B	124.75B
	Total Assets
382.90B	390.83B	372.41B	334.22B	387.30B	365.94B
	Total Debt
5.87B	6.36B	6.12B	6.46B	6.63B	6.68B
	Net Debt
1.58B	554.00M	2.76B	3.11B	4.01B	4.97B
	Total Liabilities
374.70B	382.56B	365.52B	329.12B	367.03B	6.68B
	Stockholders Equity
8.19B	8.27B	6.89B	5.10B	20.27B	22.70B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-936.00M	-2.01B	-2.07B	4.03B	151.00M	534.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
-936.00M	-2.01B	-2.07B	4.03B	151.00M	534.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.86B	821.00M	-3.33B	-11.64B	-3.57B	-9.48B
	Financing Cash Flow
3.96B	3.62B	5.43B	8.77B	4.32B	8.09B

Lincoln National Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 32.47
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LNC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.18, above the 50-day MA of 32.36, and below the 200-day MA of 32.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LNC.

Lincoln National Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FG	70 Outperform	$4.43B	8.51	12.72%	2.68%	-1.72%	95.91%
JXN	69 Neutral	$5.91B	79.38	1.24%	3.87%	3.55%	8.91%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.93B	9.70	7.85%	78.03%	12.07%	-7.83%
LNC	62 Neutral	$5.66B	4.62	16.91%	5.43%	8.31%	-2.30%
GNW	62 Neutral	$2.93B	14.10	2.73%	―	0.98%	156.14%
CNO	58 Neutral	$3.73B	12.88	12.47%	1.80%	-0.78%	-16.22%
BHF	49 Neutral	$3.34B	6.83	13.00%	―	14.74%	―

Lincoln National Corporate Events

Lincoln National Upsizes Cash Tender Offer to $420M

On May 27, 2025, Lincoln National Corporation announced the early results and upsizing of its cash tender offer for certain outstanding securities, increasing the maximum aggregate purchase price from $375 million to $420 million. The company reported that $812.835 million in aggregate principal amount of securities had been validly tendered by the early tender deadline, indicating strong investor interest. The tender offer is part of Lincoln National’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its liquidity and capital structure, with implications for stakeholders regarding the company’s financial positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (LNC) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lincoln National stock, see the LNC Stock Forecast page.

Lincoln National Shareholders Approve Incentive Plan Amendment

On May 22, 2025, Lincoln National Corporation held its annual meeting where shareholders approved an amendment to the 2020 Incentive Compensation Plan, increasing the number of shares authorized for issuance and raising the maximum cash awards for participants. Additionally, the board approved a change to the company’s bylaws, reducing the number of authorized board members from eleven to ten. The meeting also saw the election of ten directors and the ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for 2025. A proposal for an independent board chair was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (LNC) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lincoln National stock, see the LNC Stock Forecast page.

Lincoln National Secures New Capital via Trust Securities

On May 15, 2025, Lincoln National Corporation issued $500 million in 2.330% Senior Notes due 2030 to Belrose Funding Trust I, in exchange for U.S. Treasury securities. This move was part of a facility agreement established in August 2020, aimed at managing the company’s capital structure. Additionally, on May 20, 2025, Belrose Funding Trust II issued $1 billion in Pre-Capitalized Trust Securities Redeemable in 2055, providing Lincoln National with a new source of capital and liquidity. These financial maneuvers are designed to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and strengthen its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (LNC) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lincoln National stock, see the LNC Stock Forecast page.

Lincoln National Announces Cash Tender Offer for Notes

On May 12, 2025, Lincoln Financial announced a cash tender offer for several series of its outstanding securities, including senior notes and subordinated notes, with a cap of $375 million. This strategic move aims to manage the company’s debt cost and maturity profile efficiently. The tender offer is contingent upon the issuance of new Pre-Capitalized Trust Securities by Belrose Funding Trust II and the sale of Eligible Assets from Trust I, which will provide liquidity and extend the company’s capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (LNC) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lincoln National stock, see the LNC Stock Forecast page.

Lincoln National Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 8, 2025, Lincoln Financial reported its first quarter results for the period ending March 31, 2025. The company experienced a net loss of $756 million, attributed mainly to market risk benefits and economic factors, while adjusted operating income was $280 million. Despite the loss, Lincoln Financial showed strong performance in its Group Protection and Annuities segments, with significant sales growth and improved margins. The company also announced a strategic partnership with Bain Capital, expected to support its strategic priorities and enhance value creation, set to close in the second half of 2025.

Lincoln National Partners with Bain Capital for Growth

On April 9, 2025, Lincoln National Corporation announced a strategic partnership with Bain Capital, involving the sale of a 9.9% equity stake in Lincoln for $825 million. This transaction aims to provide Lincoln with growth capital to enhance its strategic priorities, including expanding spread-based earnings and optimizing its legacy life portfolio. The partnership also establishes Bain Capital as a strategic asset management partner, granting them management of a significant portion of Lincoln’s insurance subsidiaries’ assets. This collaboration is expected to accelerate Lincoln’s strategy, unlock value creation opportunities, and provide financial flexibility to reduce its leverage ratio.