Lincoln National (LNC)
NYSE:LNC
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Lincoln National
(NYSE:LNC)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$38.00
▲(3.01% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/10/26
The score is driven primarily by improved profitability and capital metrics, reinforced by a constructive earnings-call outlook. These positives are tempered by historically unstable cash flows and a still-weak longer-term technical trend, while valuation support comes mainly from the ~5% dividend yield given the unusable P/E input.
Positive Factors
Consistent adjusted operating income growth
Seven consecutive quarters of adjusted operating income growth signal durable improvement in core underwriting and fee earnings. Sustained operating income growth enhances internal capital generation, supports reinvestment and dividends, and indicates management execution beyond transient market moves.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent cash generation
Volatile operating cash flow undermines the reliability of earnings conversion to cash, increasing dependence on capital markets or parent liquidity for funding claims, growth and capital actions. For insurers, inconsistent cash generation raises long‑term execution risk and constrains capital allocation flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent adjusted operating income growth
Seven consecutive quarters of adjusted operating income growth signal durable improvement in core underwriting and fee earnings. Sustained operating income growth enhances internal capital generation, supports reinvestment and dividends, and indicates management execution beyond transient market moves.
Read all positive factors
Lincoln National Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks down income sources, highlighting which products or services drive sales and revealing diversification or dependency on specific revenue streams.
Breaks down income sources, highlighting which products or services drive sales and revealing diversification or dependency on specific revenue streams.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLincoln National (LNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.89B
Dividend Yield3.93%
Average Volume (3M)1.80M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth8.45%
EPS Growth21.80%
CountryUS
Employees9,783
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.03
Shares Outstanding191,213,200
10 Day Avg. Volume2,056,691
30 Day Avg. Volume1,797,253
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.10
Price to Book (P/B)0.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.45
P/FCF Ratio-48.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$42.00Price Target Upside13.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)7.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$19.61B
Lincoln National Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Annuities, Retirement Plan Services, Life Insurance, and Group Protection. The A...
How the Company Makes Money
Lincoln National primarily makes money through insurance and retirement/annuity operations. In its insurance businesses (including workplace benefits), it earns premium revenue from policyholders and employer-sponsored plans; a portion of that pre...
Lincoln National Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a clear net-positive operational and capital story: adjusted operating income growth (16% YoY), diversified and improving business mix (notably in Group Protection, Life, FIAs and spread-based annuities), strong alternative investment returns, and solid capital and liquidity metrics (RBC >420%, leverage at 25%, holding company liquidity ~ $805M net). Near-term challenges include a GAAP net loss driven by market-related items, sizable variable annuity outflows, a higher disability loss ratio (PFML and LTD resolution impacts), a one-time tax true-up and some sequential pressure in annuity balances/fee income. Management framed these headwinds as manageable and largely expected within their strategic transition. Overall, positive execution and financial flexibility outweigh the near-term operational and market-driven headwinds.Positive Updates
Adjusted Operating Income Growth
Adjusted operating income increased 16% year-over-year, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of YoY growth; adjusted operating income available to common stockholders was $326 million or $1.66 per diluted share.
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Loss Driven by Market Risk Benefits
Reported GAAP net loss available to common stockholders was $211 million (loss of $1.10 per diluted share), primarily due to negative movement in market risk benefits amid lower equity markets despite strong adjusted operating income.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted Operating Income Growth
Adjusted operating income increased 16% year-over-year, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of YoY growth; adjusted operating income available to common stockholders was $326 million or $1.66 per diluted share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance and outlook highlighted a mix of near‑term expectations and multi‑year targets: management expects RILA sales in 2026 to be in line with the multi‑year average and reiterated a 3–6% medium‑term premium growth target for Group Protection; Retirement Plan Services expects Q2 net outflows of $2.0–$2.5 billion; alternative investments target a ~10% annualized return (Q1 alts returned 3.1% or ~12% annualized, ~$129M pre‑tax and roughly $19M after‑tax, or ~$0.10/share above target), though Q2 may see variability; Q2 annuities should get a sequential tailwind from normalization of a $7M tax true‑up and an extra fee day plus continued spread income growth. Key Q1 metrics to frame the guidance: adjusted operating income available to common of $326M ($1.66/diluted share), up 16% YoY and the seventh consecutive quarter of YoY growth (GAAP net loss was $211M, -$1.10/sh); total sales $3.9B with spread‑based products 64% of sales; annuities operating income $275M (account balances net of reinsurance $169B, +7% YoY; RILA balances +15%, fixed annuity balances +24%; spread‑based products 31% of annuity balances), total annuity net outflows ~$2.2B (traditional VA outflows ~$2.6B) with RILA net inflows ~$285M and fixed annuity net inflows ~$100M; FIA sales up >90% YoY, fixed annuity sales $716M, VA sales $1.4B; Group Protection operating income $112M (+11% YoY) with an 8% margin (+60bps), group life loss ratio ~67% (improved >800bps) and disability loss ratio 73.4%; Life operating income $41M (vs -$16M LY) with life sales $129M (+30% YoY; Core Life & MoneyGuard $96M, +20%; executive benefits nearly doubled); Retirement Plan Services operating income $43M (+26% YoY), first‑year sales $1.1B (+~3%), deposits $4.1B, base spreads 116bps (+13bps) and average account balances ~$125B (+~10%); G&A net of capitalization $589M; capital and liquidity targets remain intact (estimated RBC well above 400% and above the 420% buffer, leverage ratio improved to 25% at its long‑term target, holding company liquidity ~ $1.2B including $400M prefunding, or ~$805M net of prefunding).Lincoln National Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 18.88B | 18.21B | 17.99B | 11.71B | 18.93B | 17.61B |
| Gross Profit | 6.50B | 10.44B | 4.60B | 50.00M | 2.43B | 3.90B |
| EBITDA | 2.28B | 1.56B | 4.45B | -773.00M | 2.07B | 4.96B |
| Net Income | 1.73B | 1.18B | 3.27B | -752.00M | 1.36B | 3.78B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 406.16B | 417.20B | 390.83B | 372.41B | 334.22B | 387.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.34B | 46.40B | 26.72B | 92.10B | 103.08B | 121.36B |
| Total Debt | 6.37B | 6.43B | 6.36B | 6.12B | 6.63B | 6.63B |
| Total Liabilities | 395.95B | 406.30B | 382.56B | 365.52B | 329.12B | 367.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.21B | 10.91B | 8.27B | 6.89B | 5.10B | 20.27B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 243.00M | -167.00M | -2.01B | -2.07B | 3.61B | -217.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 243.00M | -167.00M | -2.01B | -2.07B | 3.61B | -217.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.42B | -4.01B | 821.00M | -3.33B | -11.65B | -3.58B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8.24B | 7.88B | 3.62B | 5.43B | 8.77B | 4.71B |
Lincoln National Technical Analysis
Positive
36.89
Price Trends
35.34
Positive
37.24
Negative
38.72
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.20
Positive
52.65
Neutral
74.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.02, above the 50-day MA of 35.34, and below the 200-day MA of 38.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LNC.
Lincoln National Risk Analysis
Lincoln National disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lincoln National reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lincoln National Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.68B | 3.39 | 11.42% | 2.91% | 17.32% | -0.37% | |
76 Outperform | $12.13B | 10.08 | 20.32% | 0.74% | 3.96% | 18.81% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $4.41B | 25.62 | 9.56% | 1.54% | 5.03% | -12.76% | |
65 Neutral | $7.46B | -4.35 | -3.73% | 2.98% | -20.54% | -652.89% | |
62 Neutral | $6.89B | -9.86 | 16.79% | 3.93% | 8.45% | 21.80% | |
54 Neutral | $3.59B | -1.13 | -1.07% | ― | -16.15% | -133.67% |
* Financial Sector Average
LNC
Lincoln National
36.03
5.16
16.72%
CNO
CNO Financial
47.29
10.78
29.54%
GL
Globe Life
156.28
37.88
31.99%
BHF
Brighthouse Financial
62.47
4.56
7.87%
JXN
Jackson Financial Incorporation
106.95
28.77
36.80%
FG
F&G Annuities & Life Inc
27.79
-2.46
-8.14%
Lincoln National Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lincoln National Posts Q1 Loss But Strong Operating Gains
Positive
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Lincoln Financial reported first-quarter 2026 results for the period ended March 31, 2026, showing a net loss available to common shareholders of $211 million, or $1.10 per diluted share, largely driven by non-economic changes in m...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Lincoln National Announces Planned Leadership Transition in Annuities
Neutral
Apr 16, 2026
Lincoln National Corporation said that Brian Kroll, executive vice president and head of Retail Life and Annuity Solutions, plans to retire effective June 1, 2026. The move, disclosed in the company’s 2026 proxy statement, is part of a plann...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lincoln National Enters New $2 Billion Credit Agreement
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
On March 27, 2026, Lincoln National Corporation entered into an unsecured, third amended and restated credit agreement with a bank syndicate led by Bank of America, N.A., replacing a December 21, 2023 facility. The new agreement provides up to $2....
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lincoln National Reports Strong Q4 and 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Lincoln Financial on February 12, 2026 reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting strong momentum across all business segments and improved profitability versus the prior year. Fourth-quarter net income available to common sh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.