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CNO Financial (CNO)
NYSE:CNO

CNO Financial (CNO) AI Stock Analysis

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CNO

CNO Financial

(NYSE:CNO)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$47.00
▲(13.88% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/16/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance with improving leverage but pressured margins and lower ROE, plus a strong earnings call highlighting accelerating sales and operating EPS growth despite impairment and business-exit headwinds. Valuation is reasonable (P/E 14.83, 1.58% yield), while technical indicators are mixed with near-term consolidation within a broader uptrend.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth from new premiums indicates robust demand for CNO's products, supporting long-term financial health and market expansion.
Strategic Initiatives
The Bermuda treaty enhances capital efficiency and improves return on equity, strengthening CNO's competitive position and profitability.
Market Position
CNO's strategic focus on middle-income households and diverse distribution channels ensures a strong market position and sustained growth.
Negative Factors
Profit Margin Decline
Declining profit margins suggest rising costs or pricing pressures, which could impact long-term profitability if not addressed.
Impairment Charges
Significant impairment charges reflect challenges in asset valuation, potentially affecting future earnings and financial stability.
Exit from Worksite Fee Services
Exiting an underperforming business segment may limit diversification and revenue streams, impacting long-term growth potential.

CNO Financial (CNO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CNO Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCNO Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, markets, and administers health insurance, annuity, individual life insurance, and other insurance products for senior and middle-income markets in the United States. It offers Medicare supplement, supplemental health, and long-term care insurance policies; life insurance; and annuities, as well as Medicare advantage plans to individuals through phone, online, mail, and face-to-face. The company also focuses on worksite and group sales for businesses, associations, and other membership groups by interacting with customers at their place of employment. In addition, it provides fixed index annuities; fixed interest annuities, including fixed rate single and flexible premium deferred annuities; single premium immediate annuities; supplemental health products, such as specified disease, accident, and hospital indemnity products; and long-term care plans primarily to retirees and older self-employed individuals in the middle-income market. Further, the company offers universal life and other interest-sensitive life products; and traditional life policies that include whole life, graded benefit life, term life, and single premium whole life products, as well as graded benefit life insurance products. CNO Financial Group, Inc. markets its products under the Bankers Life, Washington National, and Colonial Penn brand names. The company sells its products through agents, independent producers, and direct marketing. CNO Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Carmel, Indiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyCNO Financial generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily through the sale of insurance products and services. The company's key revenue sources include premiums collected from life and health insurance policies, which provide a steady income stream. Additionally, CNO earns revenue from investment income generated by managing the premiums it receives before claims are paid out. Annuity sales also contribute to its revenue, as the company offers various annuity products that yield returns over time. Partnerships with agents and brokers enhance distribution, enabling CNO to reach a broader market and increase sales. Furthermore, CNO's focus on middle-income Americans positions it uniquely in a niche market, allowing for sustained growth and profitability.

CNO Financial Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Type
Revenue by Type
Chart Insights
Data provided by:The Fly

CNO Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong, broad-based growth across production, product margins and investment yield, with record sales and improving operating profitability and capital metrics. Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainty and specific headwinds (notably Medicare Advantage pressure and potential softness in discretionary products), along with some non-repeatable items in investment income. On balance the positive operational and financial momentum, capital returns, and disciplined investment and capital plans substantially outweigh the noted risks.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Production and Sales Growth
Total new annualized premium (NAP) was a record and up 15% for the full year; company reported its 14th consecutive quarter of sales growth and multiple division- and product-level production records.
Consumer Division: Strong Multi-Product Performance
Consumer NAP highlights: life NAP +10% (D2C life sales +20%, with >70% of D2C life leads from non-TV channels), total health NAP +22%, supplemental health +15%, long-term care +4%; Medicare Supplement NAP +49% for the year and +92% for the quarter; annuity collected premiums +9% year-over-year (Q4 +3%), in-force annuity values >$13B (+7%), brokerage/advisory client assets +24% to >$5B.
Worksite Division: Best Production Year Ever
Worksite reported record full-year insurance sales up 15% (Q4 insurance sales +13%); full-year life sales +36%, hospital indemnity +41%, accident +11%; geographic expansion contributed 11% of NAP growth and NAP from new group clients was +23%.
Improving Profitability and Operating Metrics
Operating return on equity (excluding significant items) improved to 11.4% (from a ~10% run rate in 2024); management cited one of the best operating performances on record; operating earnings per diluted share of $4.40 (Gary) and full-year operating EPS excluding significant items of $4.02 (Paul) exceeded guidance ranges.
Expense, Tax and Efficiency Beats
Full-year expense ratio (ex significant items) was 18.9%, better than the low end of original guidance; effective tax rate on operating income was 20.6%, below prior guidance of 22.0–22.5%.
Capital Return and Shareholder Metrics
Returned $386 million to shareholders (an 11% increase vs. 2024); deployed $320 million in share repurchases (+14% year-over-year) including $60 million in Q4, reducing weighted average diluted shares outstanding by ~8%.
Strong Investment and Yield Performance
New money rates exceeded 6% for 12 consecutive quarters (new money rate 6.11%); allocated net investment income up 6% for the year; record invested assets of $31 billion, 97% investment grade, average rating single-A; $1.6 billion of new investments in the quarter (avg rating A, avg duration 6 years).
Robust Capital and Liquidity Position
Consolidated risk-based capital ratio was 380% (target range 360%–390%); holding company liquidity ended year at $351 million (above $150 million minimum); debt-to-total-capital within target 25%–28%.
Clear 2026 Guidance and Multi-Year Investment Plan
2026 guidance: operating EPS $4.25–$4.45 (midpoint ~+8% vs 2025), expense ratio 18.8%–19.2%, effective tax rate ~22.5%, free cash flow $200–$250 million; three-year tech modernization plan of ~$170 million on track (2025 spend ~$20M, 2026 planned ~$75M).
Negative Updates
Medicare Advantage Weakness and Market Pressure
Medicare Advantage policies sold were down 3% for the year; management highlighted MA carriers paring back plans/benefits which creates headwinds and potential pressure on distribution fees and churn.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Could Pressure Discretionary Products
Management repeatedly noted limited visibility and potential headwinds from weaker job market/layoffs; discretionary product demand (annuities, life, long-term care) may slow if consumer confidence weakens despite recruiting benefits.
Quarterly Annuity Growth Moderation
Annuity collected premiums grew 9% for the full year but only 3% in the quarter, indicating near-term sensitivity of annuity sales to macro conditions.
Volatility in Unallocated Net Investment Income
Unallocated NII included a $12 million special dividend and variable alternatives income; management noted such items are not necessarily repeatable and can add quarter-to-quarter noise to NII.
Reinsurance Cadence and Guidance Conservatism
Company completed a second reinsurance treaty in 4Q but guidance for 2026 does not assume additional Bermuda treaties beyond the two in place, limiting near-term upside from reinsurance transactions and reflecting regulatory cadence.
Worksite Fee Services Exit (Operational Transition)
Company is exiting the Worksite fee services business (expected largely complete in H1 2026); management says benefits are already visible but the transition represents an operational change with near-term execution risk.
Company Guidance
The company’s initial 2026 guidance targets continued profitability and capital discipline: operating earnings per share of $4.25–$4.45 (about an 8% increase at the midpoint versus 2025), an expense ratio of 18.8%–19.2% (seasonally higher in Q1), fee income of roughly $30 million (≈1/3 in Q1, minimal in Q2–Q3, remainder in Q4), an effective tax rate of ~22.5%, and free cash flow of $200–$250 million (guidance is net of the tech modernization spend). Management reiterated a multi-year objective to improve run‑rate operating ROE by 200 basis points through 2027 (from a ~10% 2024 run‑rate toward a ~12% 2027 target), noted 2025 operating ROE ex-significant items was 11.4%, and set capital/liquidity targets of a consolidated RBC range of 360%–390% (midpoint ≈375%), minimum holding‑company liquidity of $150 million, and a debt‑to‑total‑capital ratio of 25%–28%; they also confirmed the $170 million three‑year tech program ($20 million spent in 2025, ~$75 million expected in 2026).

CNO Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Stable revenue growth and solid operating efficiency (TTM EBIT margin 14.01%, EBITDA margin 17.47%) support the score, but profitability is weakening (gross margin down to 29.96% from 41.03% in 2024; net margin down to 6.64% from 9.09%). Leverage improved (debt-to-equity 1.60 vs. 1.81), while shareholder returns softened (ROE 11.51% vs. 16.17%). Cash conversion looks strong, but free cash flow growth is negative (-4.74%).
Income Statement
75
Positive
CNO Financial shows a stable revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.35%. However, the gross profit margin has decreased from 41.03% in 2024 to 29.96% in TTM, indicating increased costs or pricing pressures. The net profit margin also declined from 9.09% to 6.64% in TTM, reflecting reduced profitability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a reasonable EBIT margin of 14.01% and EBITDA margin of 17.47% in TTM, suggesting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio improved from 1.81 in 2024 to 1.60 in TTM, showing better leverage management. However, the return on equity decreased from 16.17% to 11.51% in TTM, indicating reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio remains stable, reflecting a balanced asset structure. Overall, the balance sheet shows moderate financial stability with some room for improvement in profitability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow increased slightly in TTM, but free cash flow growth was negative at -4.74%, indicating potential cash management issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 19.46, and the free cash flow to net income ratio remains at 1.0, suggesting efficient cash conversion. Despite the decline in free cash flow growth, cash flow metrics indicate solid cash generation capabilities.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.49B4.45B4.15B3.58B4.12B
Gross Profit2.01B1.70B1.53B1.79B1.70B
EBITDA524.30M1.07B862.80M1.20B1.07B
Net Income229.30M404.00M276.50M630.60M570.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.20M37.85B35.03B33.13B36.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments983.50M9.45B22.28B20.42B24.91B
Total Debt4.05B4.52B4.15B3.88B4.00B
Total Liabilities36.09B35.35B32.81B31.36B30.94B
Stockholders Equity2.64B2.50B2.22B1.77B5.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00627.70M582.90M495.40M598.30M
Operating Cash Flow0.00627.70M582.90M495.40M598.30M
Investing Cash Flow0.00-1.49B-872.30M-1.78B-1.53B
Financing Cash Flow0.001.97B533.50M1.20B667.60M

CNO Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price41.27
Price Trends
50DMA
42.50
Negative
100DMA
41.23
Positive
200DMA
39.49
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.13
Positive
RSI
41.99
Neutral
STOCH
16.96
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CNO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 41.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.51, below the 50-day MA of 42.50, and above the 200-day MA of 39.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CNO.

CNO Financial Risk Analysis

CNO Financial disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CNO Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

CNO Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$3.88B8.606.05%2.91%-4.58%
74
Outperform
$3.66B4.3416.27%27.71%
72
Outperform
$7.95B-336.710.27%2.98%24.94%
71
Outperform
$4.10B18.7411.12%1.54%-1.61%15.79%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
63
Neutral
$3.54B16.622.86%1.41%150.35%
63
Neutral
$7.95B7.1712.27%3.93%35.76%636.97%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CNO
CNO Financial
41.27
1.81
4.59%
GNW
Genworth Financial
8.30
1.73
26.33%
LNC
Lincoln National
35.69
0.07
0.20%
BHF
Brighthouse Financial
62.54
3.10
5.22%
JXN
Jackson Financial Incorporation
109.91
29.23
36.22%
FG
F&G Annuities & Life Inc
23.32
-16.52
-41.47%

CNO Financial Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
CNO Financial Appoints Linda Gibson to Board of Directors
Positive
Jan 15, 2026

On January 15, 2026, CNO Financial Group appointed Linda T. Gibson, former chairperson and CEO of PGIM Quantitative Solutions, to its board of directors as an independent director, expanding the board to ten members and assigning her to the Audit and Enterprise Risk Committee and the Investment Committee. The move brings more than three decades of global investment management and asset allocation expertise to CNO’s board, reinforcing the insurer’s strategic emphasis on investment strategy, technology-enabled solutions and long-term shareholder returns, while maintaining standard, customary compensation and governance arrangements with no related-party transactions disclosed.

The most recent analyst rating on (CNO) stock is a Buy with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CNO Financial stock, see the CNO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 16, 2026