Unum Group (UNM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.57B
• Dividend Yield: 2.22%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.53M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 1.80%
• EPS Growth: -44.44%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,833
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Life
• EPS (TTM): 1.92
• Shares Outstanding: 163,753,810
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,530,635
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,534,789
• PEG Ratio: -0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.07
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.67
• 1Y Price Target: $93.67
• Price Target Upside: 27.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.77
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $12.58B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $76.00 ▲(3.56% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

UNM scores as moderately attractive primarily due to solid capitalization and a cautiously positive 2026 outlook with planned shareholder returns. The score is held back by the 2025 profitability and cash-flow downturn and weak current technicals (price below key moving averages with negative momentum). Valuation and the dividend are supportive but not strong enough to offset the recent earnings volatility.

Positive Factors

Strong Capital Buffers

A ~440% RBC ratio and multi‑billion holdco cash provide durable financial flexibility. That capital cushion supports ongoing dividend increases and planned buybacks, absorbs underwriting volatility, and lets management fund strategic initiatives without forcing near‑term asset sales or liquidity hits.

High Core ROE

Sustained mid‑teens to mid‑20s ROE in core lines signals underwriting strength and efficient capital deployment. High core returns generate internal capital, support shareholder returns over time, and reflect competitive pricing/selection in employer‑sponsored disability and life products.

Material Closed‑Block De‑risking

Ceding ~20% of LTC reserves and >$4B of reserve reductions materially lowers legacy longevity/morbidity exposure. This structural de‑risking should reduce earnings volatility from legacy blocks, clarify core operating results, and improve capital durability over the medium term.

Negative Factors

2025 Profitability Reset

A sharp margin and earnings drop signals underlying underwriting and/or expense pressure. Such a reset reduces profit predictability and compresses organic capital generation, meaning future shareholder returns or reinvestment rely more on sustaining improved claims trends or consistent underwriting remediation.

Group Disability Benefit‑Ratio Volatility

Group disability is core to the franchise; elevated and variable benefit ratios directly erode margins and drive earnings swings. Persistent claim severity, lower recoveries, or mortality variability can keep benefit ratios high, making multi‑quarter profit recovery and forecasting more difficult.

Weaker Cash Generation in 2025

A meaningful step‑down in operating and free cash flow constrains durable funding for buybacks, dividends, and investments. Even if FCF still covered net income in 2025, ongoing lower cash conversion would force tougher capital allocation decisions and reduce margin for error against underwriting or investment setbacks.

Unum Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Unum Group, together with its subsidiaries, provides financial protection benefit solutions primarily in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Poland. It operates through Unum US, Unum International, Colonial Life, and Closed Block segments. The company offers group long-term and short-term disability, group life, and accidental death and dismemberment products; supplemental and voluntary products, such as individual disability, voluntary benefits, and dental and vision products; and accident, sickness, disability, life, and cancer and critical illness products. It also provides group pension, individual life and corporate-owned life insurance, reinsurance pools and management operations, and other products. The company sells its products primarily to employers for the benefit of employees. Unum Group sells its products through field sales personnel, independent brokers, consultants, and independent contractor agency sales force. The company was founded in 1848 and is based in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Unum Group generates revenue primarily through the underwriting of insurance products. The company earns money by collecting premiums from policyholders in exchange for coverage. Key revenue streams include group long-term disability insurance, group life insurance, and supplemental health products. Unum also invests the premiums collected in various financial instruments, generating investment income. Additionally, the company benefits from partnerships with employers, providing tailored employee benefits packages that enhance employee retention and satisfaction. Factors such as the growth of the workforce, increasing awareness of the importance of disability and life insurance, and strong relationships with brokers and employers contribute to Unum's earnings.

Unum Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is solid with moderate, stable leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.31–0.39; 2025 at 0.37) and sizable equity, but 2025 saw a sharp earnings reset (net margin 13.9% to 5.8%; net income $1.78B to $0.74B) and a meaningful step-down in operating cash flow and free cash flow versus prior years, raising profitability and cash-generation volatility concerns.

Income Statement

Revenue has been broadly stable over the last several years (low-single-digit growth most years), but 2025 showed a slight decline (-1.7%) and a sharp profitability pullback. Net margin fell from 13.9% (2024) to 5.8% (2025) and net income dropped from $1.78B to $0.74B, signaling weaker underwriting/claims experience or higher expenses. Positively, 2020–2024 showed generally improving profitability versus earlier years, but the 2025 reset raises earnings volatility concerns.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks contained for the period shown, with debt-to-equity staying in a fairly tight band (~0.31–0.39) and 2025 at 0.37. Equity remains sizable ($10.19B in 2025) relative to debt ($3.77B), supporting balance-sheet resilience. The main watch-out is the variability in returns on equity (from ~7% in 2020/2025 to ~16% in 2022/2024), which suggests profitability can swing even if leverage is stable.

Cash Flow

Cash generation was strong and well-aligned with earnings through 2024 (free cash flow ran at ~89%–93% of net income in 2022–2024, with operating cash flow comfortably above net income). In 2025, cash flow weakened materially: operating cash flow fell to $0.69B (from $1.51B) and free cash flow declined to $0.56B (from $1.39B), with free cash flow down ~19% year over year. While free cash flow still covered net income in 2025 (~81%), the step-down in cash generation is a key near-term risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	13.05B	12.79B	12.31B	11.88B	11.84B
Gross Profit	4.99B	4.74B	4.03B	3.93B	3.32B
EBITDA	1.27B	2.57B	1.94B	2.05B	1.57B
Net Income	738.50M	1.78B	1.28B	1.41B	981.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	64.09B	62.35B	63.61B	61.53B	71.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	158.20M	162.80M	146.00M	119.20M	75.00M
Total Debt	3.90B	3.86B	3.54B	3.43B	3.58B
Total Liabilities	52.98B	51.39B	53.96B	52.79B	59.81B
Stockholders Equity	11.12B	10.96B	9.65B	8.73B	11.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	555.40M	1.39B	1.07B	1.32B	1.28B
Operating Cash Flow	687.70M	1.51B	1.20B	1.42B	1.39B
Investing Cash Flow	548.90M	-344.40M	-725.90M	-955.90M	-1.34B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.24B	-1.15B	-450.10M	-418.60M	-168.90M

Unum Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 73.39
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UNM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 73.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.88, below the 50-day MA of 75.64, and below the 200-day MA of 75.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UNM.

Unum Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GL	78 Outperform	$11.38B	9.74	20.59%	0.74%	3.73%	17.47%
PRI	74 Outperform	$8.31B	11.22	31.83%	1.59%	5.63%	67.39%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FG	64 Neutral	$3.15B	15.25	6.05%	2.91%	-4.58%	―
UNM	63 Neutral	$11.57B	18.10	6.69%	2.22%	1.80%	-44.44%
LNC	63 Neutral	$6.48B	2.82	12.27%	3.93%	35.76%	636.97%
JXN	58 Neutral	$7.85B	276.83	0.27%	2.98%	24.94%	―

Unum Group Corporate Events

Unum Group Reports Q4 2025 Results and 2026 Outlook

On February 5, 2026, Unum Group reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $174.1 million, down from $348.7 million a year earlier, while after-tax adjusted operating income reached $322.3 million, reflecting higher benefits expenses and several one-time items, including pension-related settlement losses and reinsurance amortization. For full-year 2025, the company delivered 3.7% core operations premium growth on a constant-currency basis and a 20.5% adjusted operating return on equity, supported by a strong balance sheet with $2.3 billion in holding company liquidity and a risk-based capital ratio of about 440%, enabling $1.3 billion in capital returns to shareholders and book value per share growth. Segment results were mixed, with Unum US adjusted operating income falling 13.1% as group disability earnings were pressured by higher benefit ratios and lower investment income, while group life and AD&D posted higher operating income on premium growth and improved claims experience, underscoring both the earnings sensitivity to claims trends and the resilience of the broader franchise. The company also published a 2026 outlook slide deck alongside these results and indicated that positive business trends are expected to continue, guiding to 4–7% core premium growth and higher adjusted operating earnings per share in 2026, signaling confidence in ongoing growth and value creation despite recent claims cost headwinds.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNM) stock is a Hold with a $87.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Unum Group stock, see the UNM Stock Forecast page.

Unum Group Announces New $1 Billion Buyback Program

On December 4, 2025, Unum Group announced that its Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program, allowing the company to buy back up to $1 billion of its common stock starting January 1, 2026. This move, which follows the termination of the current program on December 31, 2025, reflects Unum’s strategic financial management and could impact its market positioning and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNM) stock is a Buy with a $84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Unum Group stock, see the UNM Stock Forecast page.