Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)
NYSE:AESI
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Atlas Energy Solutions
(NYSE:AESI)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(6.76% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/07/26
The score is driven primarily by a mixed financial profile—stronger balance-sheet flexibility but weakened 2025 profitability and still-negative free cash flow—partly offset by a relatively constructive earnings-call outlook centered on the power transition and execution milestones. Technical signals remain weak-to-neutral, while valuation is supported by the high dividend yield but constrained by loss-making results.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Atlas’s material deleveraging and ~$1.2B equity base provide durable financial flexibility to fund multi-year power builds, absorb cyclical sand downturns, and extend equipment lead times without immediate liquidity strain. Strong capital structure supports strategic investments and reduces refinancing urgency.
Negative Factors
Sustained Margin Pressure
Persistently weak sand and logistics pricing compresses gross and operating margins across cycles. When pricing approaches marginal cost, pricing power is limited and earnings volatility rises, reducing the company’s ability to self-fund growth or sustain dividends absent structural improvements or higher commodity activity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Atlas’s material deleveraging and ~$1.2B equity base provide durable financial flexibility to fund multi-year power builds, absorb cyclical sand downturns, and extend equipment lead times without immediate liquidity strain. Strong capital structure supports strategic investments and reduces refinancing urgency.
Read all positive factors
Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.40B
Dividend Yield10.12%
Average Volume (3M)3.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth20.68%
EPS Growth-112.42%
CountryUS
Employees1,143
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.18
Shares Outstanding124,867,150
10 Day Avg. Volume2,635,152
30 Day Avg. Volume3,208,740
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.95
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio-37.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.93Price Target Upside6.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.09B
Atlas Energy Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. provides proppant and logistics services to the oil and natural gas industry within the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Austin, Texas....
How the Company Makes Money
Atlas Energy Solutions primarily makes money by selling proppant (frac sand) to exploration and production (E&P) companies and other oilfield service customers that use the material in hydraulic fracturing. Revenue is generated through (1) product...
Atlas Energy Solutions Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights the revenue generated from different business segments, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and where the company might be over-reliant or underperforming.
Highlights the revenue generated from different business segments, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and where the company might be over-reliant or underperforming.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAtlas Energy Solutions Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of solid financial results and operational achievements alongside meaningful near-term headwinds. Positives include a strong full-year adjusted EBITDA and margin profile, record utilization and shipments on the Dune Express with tangible environmental benefits, successful $20 million in cost savings, and a material strategic pivot into behind-the-meter power with a 240 MW order, a large pipeline (>2 GW), and targeted deployments (30 MW in Q1; >500 MW by 2027). Key challenges tempering the outlook are a weak sand and logistics pricing environment (average sand price expected to fall ~9% in Q1), margin pressure from load bonuses and competitor pricing, weather-related disruption (~$6M Q1 EBITDA impact), elevated Kermit operating costs until dredges are commissioned, rising interest expense and financing reliance, long equipment lead times and uncertain utility interconnection schedules, and limited visibility on second-half activity. Taken together, the highlights—particularly the strategic power transition, execution on Dune Express, and cost saving realization—outweigh the lowlights, but investors should monitor pricing, dredge commissioning progress, and financing/timing risks closely.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $221.7 million on $1.1 billion revenue, representing a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin; Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $36.7 million on $249 million revenue (15% margin).
Negative Updates
Weak Pricing Environment for Sand & Logistics
Industry pricing in the Permian has fallen to near or below marginal cost of production; company expects average sand sales price to decline from ~$19.85/ton in Q4 to ~$18/ton in Q1 (≈ -9.3% quarter-over-quarter), pressuring margins.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $221.7 million on $1.1 billion revenue, representing a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin; Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $36.7 million on $249 million revenue (15% margin).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: Atlas expects Q1 2026 volumes to be up roughly 10% sequentially with average sand sales price around $18/ton (Q4 avg ~$19.85/ton) and plant OpEx per ton roughly in line with Q4’s ~$12.28/ton; the January winter storm cost ~4 days of production/deliveries and is expected to reduce Q1 EBITDA by about $6 million, leaving total-company EBITDA roughly flat with Q4 ($36.7M on $249M revenue, 15% adj. EBITDA margin) while exiting the quarter at a higher run rate in March. Capital and cash-flow items: 2026 cash capital spending is expected to be ~ $55M (maintenance CapEx ~$45M, growth CapEx ~$10M), adjusted free cash flow in Q4 was $22.9M (9% of revenue), and growth payments for the 240 MW power order are expected to total ~ $190M in H2 2026 funded via a $375M lease facility (deliveries starting H2 2026, energizations targeted Q1 2027). Power targets and other milestones: Atlas expects to deploy at least 30 MW under long-term microgrid contracts in Q1, target >50% of the existing fleet on long-term contracts by year-end, and is aiming for >500 MW deployed across the fleet in 2027; net interest expense is expected to be ~ $16.5M/quarter in Q1–Q2, rising to ~$20.5M in Q3 and ~$22M in Q4.Atlas Energy Solutions Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.10B | 1.06B | 613.96M | 482.72M | 172.40M |
| Gross Profit | 121.81M | 232.01M | 313.77M | 256.31M | 64.07M |
| EBITDA | 178.82M | 228.95M | 307.19M | 263.24M | 71.89M |
| Net Income | -50.30M | 59.94M | 159.99M | 217.01M | 4.26M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.23B | 1.97B | 1.26B | 751.00M | 543.85M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 40.63M | 71.70M | 210.17M | 82.01M | 40.40M |
| Total Debt | 578.92M | 530.10M | 177.99M | 147.17M | 175.58M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.02B | 936.10M | 393.86M | 239.64M | 205.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.21B | 1.04B | 867.82M | 511.36M | 338.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -30.93M | -117.52M | -66.46M | 116.42M | 1.99M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 117.35M | 256.46M | 299.03M | 206.01M | 21.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -344.82M | -512.71M | -365.49M | -89.59M | -19.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 196.41M | 117.78M | 194.62M | -74.81M | 2.34M |
Atlas Energy Solutions Technical Analysis
Negative
11.24
Price Trends
11.98
Negative
10.85
Positive
11.38
Negative
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
39.38
Neutral
14.61
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AESI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.02, below the 50-day MA of 11.98, and below the 200-day MA of 11.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.61 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AESI.
Atlas Energy Solutions Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $3.82B | 69.65 | 6.45% | 1.07% | 92.33% | 116.22% | |
63 Neutral | $4.61B | 20.22 | 7.25% | 1.78% | -12.05% | -46.45% | |
62 Neutral | $1.40B | -22.93 | -4.02% | 10.12% | 20.68% | -112.42% | |
61 Neutral | $2.08B | 50.49 | 2.65% | 2.62% | -4.60% | -67.28% | |
52 Neutral | $1.13B | -1.69 | -41.79% | ― | -11.92% | -53.72% |
* Energy Sector Average
AESI
Atlas Energy Solutions
11.24
-1.18
-9.50%
WTTR
Select Energy Services
15.19
7.48
97.04%
SEI
Solaris Energy Infrastructure
55.72
39.28
238.93%
LBRT
Liberty Energy
28.44
18.66
190.86%
ACDC
ProFrac Holding
6.22
1.91
44.32%
Atlas Energy Solutions Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Atlas Energy Plans $300 Million Convertible Notes Offering
Neutral
Apr 6, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. announced that it intends to raise $300 million through a private placement of convertible senior notes due 2031 to qualified institutional buyers, with an option for initial purchasers to buy an addit...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Atlas Energy Signs Major Long-Term Power Generation Deal
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Atlas Energy Solutions said a subsidiary signed a five-year power purchase agreement, with options for up to 10 additional years, to deliver 120 megawatts of private on-site generation using high-efficiency natural gas reciprocat...
Business Operations and Strategy
Atlas Energy Secures Long-Term Power Capacity with Caterpillar
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Atlas Energy Solutions’ subsidiary Atlas Energy Solutions ProjectCo, LLC entered a Global Framework Agreement with Caterpillar Inc. under which Caterpillar will reserve about 1.4 gigawatts of incremental power generation eq...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Atlas Energy Reports 2025 Results, Highlights Power Expansion
Negative
Feb 23, 2026
Atlas Energy Solutions reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 23, 2026, showing annual revenue of $1.1 billion, a net loss of $50.3 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $221.7 million. Full-year volumes reached 21.6 million t...
Executive/Board Changes
Atlas Energy Director Stacy Hock Plans Board Exit
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. director Stacy Hock, a member of the Compensation Committee and the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, notified the company on January 28, 2026, that she will not stand for reelection to the board at the 202...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.