Atlas Energy Solutions, Inc. (AESI)
NYSE:AESI
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Atlas Energy Solutions
(NYSE:AESI)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▲(46.73% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened financial performance (losses and major margin compression, with volatile free cash flow). Offsetting this, the latest earnings call provided strong forward-looking signals (materially higher guided Q2 EBITDA and accelerating power strategy milestones), while technicals show a strong uptrend despite overbought conditions. Valuation is mixed: the dividend is supportive, but negative earnings reduce confidence in P/E-based attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Power strategy & Caterpillar framework
The Caterpillar framework secures long‑term access to scarce generator equipment and a 240MW initial order, enabling multi‑year scale of private power. Expected ~$50–$55M annualized FCF from a 120MW PPA materially diversifies revenue and reduces reliance on cyclical sand markets.
Negative Factors
Weak profitability & margin compression
Sharp margin deterioration and TTM losses indicate elevated earnings volatility and weaker operational leverage. Persistently compressed margins limit internal cash generation, constrain reinvestment capacity, and increase reliance on external funding if industry pricing or costs do not sustainably improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Power strategy & Caterpillar framework
The Caterpillar framework secures long‑term access to scarce generator equipment and a 240MW initial order, enabling multi‑year scale of private power. Expected ~$50–$55M annualized FCF from a 120MW PPA materially diversifies revenue and reduces reliance on cyclical sand markets.
Read all positive factors
Atlas Energy Solutions Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights the revenue generated from different business segments, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and where the company might be over-reliant or underperforming.
Highlights the revenue generated from different business segments, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and where the company might be over-reliant or underperforming.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAtlas Energy Solutions (AESI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.43B
Dividend Yield10.12%
Average Volume (3M)5.29M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth-8.41%
EPS Growth-356.38%
CountryUS
Employees1,143
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.79
Shares Outstanding124,905,590
10 Day Avg. Volume3,612,048
30 Day Avg. Volume5,286,223
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.95
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio-37.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit38.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.57Price Target Upside39.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.12B
Atlas Energy Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. provides proppant and logistics services to the oil and natural gas industry within the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Austin, Texas....
How the Company Makes Money
Atlas Energy Solutions primarily makes money by selling proppant (frac sand) to exploration and production (E&P) companies and other oilfield service customers that use the material in hydraulic fracturing. Revenue is generated through (1) product...
Atlas Energy Solutions Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial momentum — notably in power (1.4 GW framework, 240 MW initial order, first 120 MW PPA) and recovering logistics margins — and management provided bullish Q2 EBITDA guidance (~$50M, ~76% sequential uplift). Transitory Q1 operational headwinds (weather, maintenance, diesel/trucking cost volatility), capital intensity from the power buildout and sand price/capacity dynamics create near-term execution and timing risk. On balance, the strategic wins (secure equipment supply, large PPA / framework agreement, sold-out Q2 capacity, improved logistics margins and financing that lowers cash interest) materially outweigh the near-term operational and funding-related challenges.Positive Updates
Power Commercial Momentum and Large Equipment Commitments
Signed a global framework agreement with Caterpillar for 1.4 GW of generation capacity plus an initial 240 MW order (total commitments ~1.64 GW); objective to own and operate >2 GW by 2030. Announced first private-grid PPA for 120 MW expected to generate ~$50–$55 million of adjusted free cash flow annually once fully deployed.
Negative Updates
Q1 Headwinds and Elevated Operating Costs
Q1 results were negatively impacted by severe winter weather, elevated maintenance at the Kermit facility and higher third-party logistics costs. Q1 proppant plant operating cost (including royalties) was ~$13.86/ton (up sequentially). Total Q1 cost of sales excluding DD&A was $214 million.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Power Commercial Momentum and Large Equipment Commitments
Signed a global framework agreement with Caterpillar for 1.4 GW of generation capacity plus an initial 240 MW order (total commitments ~1.64 GW); objective to own and operate >2 GW by 2030. Announced first private-grid PPA for 120 MW expected to generate ~$50–$55 million of adjusted free cash flow annually once fully deployed.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided toward a stronger Q2 and full‑year 2026 driven by recovering sand/logistics and fast power commercialization: Q1 revenue was $265.5M with EBITDA $28.4M (11% margin) and Q2 EBITDA is guided to about $50M (≈76% sequential increase) as the company is effectively sold out for Q2 and expects sequentially higher volumes; Q1 proppant volume was 5.7M tons (plus ~130k t third‑party), logistics deliveries hit a record 5.5M tons, Q1 proppant ASP was ~$18.19/ton (Q2 ASP expected slightly below $18/ton), Q1 proppant plant OpEx was ~$13.86/ton (incl. royalties) with OpEx per ton forecast ~ $12.75 in Q2 and trending toward the low‑$11s by Sept/Oct and high‑$10s run‑rate longer term; logistics margins moved from low single digits in January to mid‑teens by March and are expected to be mid‑teens in Q2; management expects ~ $35M of incremental adjusted EBITDA from bridge/microgrid deployments over the remaining 9 months of 2026 and the announced 120 MW PPA (from the initial 240 MW order) to generate roughly $50–55M of annualized adjusted free cash flow once fully deployed; power commitments include the 240 MW initial order plus a global framework with Caterpillar securing an additional 1.4 GW for 2027–29 (supporting an objective of >2 GW owned/operated by 2030 and ~550 MW of deployments next year), 2026 CapEx is now guided to approximately $350–375M (maintenance CapEx ≈ $45M; growth ≈ $305–330M), Q1 cash SG&A ex‑litigation was $23.3M (guidance ~$21–22M/quarter ex‑litigation), and the company completed a $450M 0.5% convertible note (net proceeds ~$386M; capped call initial cap $22.32, 28% premium to $17.38) to strengthen the balance sheet and finance power buildout.Atlas Energy Solutions Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
49
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.06B | 1.10B | 1.06B | 613.96M | 482.72M | 172.40M |
| Gross Profit | 79.18M | 150.67M | 232.01M | 313.77M | 256.31M | 64.07M |
| EBITDA | 137.78M | 178.82M | 228.95M | 307.19M | 263.24M | 71.89M |
| Net Income | -98.79M | -50.30M | 59.94M | 159.99M | 217.01M | 4.26M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.30B | 2.23B | 1.97B | 1.26B | 751.00M | 543.85M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 39.78M | 40.63M | 71.70M | 210.17M | 82.01M | 40.40M |
| Total Debt | 692.56M | 578.92M | 530.10M | 177.99M | 147.17M | 175.58M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.13B | 1.02B | 936.10M | 393.86M | 239.64M | 205.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.17B | 1.21B | 1.04B | 867.82M | 511.36M | 338.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 18.64M | -30.93M | -117.52M | -66.46M | 116.42M | 1.99M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 143.79M | 117.35M | 256.46M | 299.03M | 206.01M | 21.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -138.94M | -344.82M | -512.71M | -365.49M | -89.59M | -19.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -33.75M | 196.41M | 117.78M | 194.62M | -74.81M | 2.34M |
Atlas Energy Solutions Technical Analysis
Positive
13.29
Price Trends
15.28
Positive
13.21
Positive
11.89
Positive
Market Momentum
1.26
Positive
64.47
Neutral
70.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AESI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.44, below the 50-day MA of 15.28, and above the 200-day MA of 11.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AESI.
Atlas Energy Solutions Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $2.76B | 48.96 | 2.54% | 2.62% | -4.18% | -41.43% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $5.40B | 34.38 | 8.08% | 1.07% | 86.29% | 96.31% | |
61 Neutral | $5.37B | 51.72 | 7.39% | 1.78% | -4.02% | -39.84% | |
60 Neutral | $2.43B | -8.65 | -8.11% | 10.12% | -8.41% | -356.38% | |
49 Neutral | $1.34B | -3.01 | -53.92% | ― | -18.94% | -69.29% |
* Energy Sector Average
AESI
Atlas Energy Solutions
19.07
6.73
54.54%
WTTR
Select Energy Services
19.28
11.33
142.61%
SEI
Solaris Energy Infrastructure
74.27
47.56
178.07%
LBRT
Liberty Energy
31.84
20.39
178.08%
ACDC
ProFrac Holding
7.15
0.15
2.14%
Atlas Energy Solutions Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Atlas Energy Shareholders Approve Directors, Auditors and Pay
Positive
May 8, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on May 7, 2026, Atlas Energy Solutions shareholders elected Gayle Burleson and Robb L. Voyles as Class III directors to serve three-year terms expiring at the 2029 annual meeting. Stockholders also ratifi...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Atlas Energy Reports Q1 Results, Expands Private Power Strategy
Positive
May 4, 2026
Atlas Energy Solutions reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 4, 2026, posting revenue of $265.5 million, a net loss of $47.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of $28.4 million, in line with guidance. Results were pressured by higher plant operating...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Atlas Energy Upsizes Convertible Notes Private Placement Financing
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Atlas Energy Solutions priced an upsized private placement of $390 million aggregate principal amount of 0.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031, increased from a previously announced $300 million, with settlement scheduled for A...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Atlas Energy Plans $300 Million Convertible Notes Offering
Neutral
Apr 6, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. announced that it intends to raise $300 million through a private placement of convertible senior notes due 2031 to qualified institutional buyers, with an option for initial purchasers to buy an addit...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Atlas Energy Signs Major Long-Term Power Generation Deal
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Atlas Energy Solutions said a subsidiary signed a five-year power purchase agreement, with options for up to 10 additional years, to deliver 120 megawatts of private on-site generation using high-efficiency natural gas reciprocat...
Business Operations and Strategy
Atlas Energy Secures Long-Term Power Capacity with Caterpillar
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Atlas Energy Solutions’ subsidiary Atlas Energy Solutions ProjectCo, LLC entered a Global Framework Agreement with Caterpillar Inc. under which Caterpillar will reserve about 1.4 gigawatts of incremental power generation eq...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Atlas Energy Reports 2025 Results, Highlights Power Expansion
Negative
Feb 23, 2026
Atlas Energy Solutions reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 23, 2026, showing annual revenue of $1.1 billion, a net loss of $50.3 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $221.7 million. Full-year volumes reached 21.6 million t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.