Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.74B
• Dividend Yield: 6.9%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.63M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 45.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: 77.72%
• EPS Growth: -75.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,143
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 123,636,910
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,306,634
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,630,334
• PEG Ratio: -1.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -13.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.27
• 1Y Price Target: $14.70
• Price Target Upside: 4.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.00 ▲(6.76%Upside)

Atlas Energy Solutions' overall stock score is primarily influenced by its strong revenue growth and improved financial stability, despite challenges in profit margins and cash flow. Technical indicators show mixed signals, while valuation concerns are offset by a high dividend yield. The earnings call highlights strategic achievements but also significant challenges, resulting in a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Cost Efficiency

Atlas Energy's high-quality, low-cost mines allow for mining costs that are significantly lower than competitors.

Growth Opportunities

The company's power generation business, Moser, provides significant growth opportunities and is expected to drive long-term growth and margins.

Shareholder Value

Strong future free cash flow expectations support a 7.6% dividend yield and stock buybacks, enhancing shareholder value.

Negative Factors

Earnings Risk

Investors expressed frustration due to significant estimate cuts resulting from customer deferrals and confusion over flat quarterly EBITDA guidance despite new acquisitions.

Market Challenges

Atlas Energy Solutions, Inc. faces a challenging environment in the US Land market due to oil prices remaining below $70 per barrel, driven by tariffs and OPEC+ production hikes.

Market Pressure

The US Land rig count is expected to decrease, creating downward pressure on frac activity and proppant pricing.

Atlas Energy Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. provides proppant and logistics services to the oil and natural gas industry within the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Atlas Energy Solutions generates revenue primarily through the sale of proppant materials to oil and gas companies engaged in hydraulic fracturing operations. These materials are crucial for maintaining the integrity of fractures in the rock, allowing for the efficient extraction of hydrocarbons. AESI's revenue streams are heavily reliant on the demand for hydraulic fracturing services, which in turn is influenced by the global oil and gas market conditions. The company may also derive income from partnerships or long-term contracts with major energy producers, ensuring a steady and predictable revenue flow. Additionally, AESI might invest in research and development to innovate and improve its product offerings, thus enhancing its competitive edge in the market.

Atlas Energy Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Atlas Energy Solutions has demonstrated strong revenue growth and improved financial stability, with a significant increase in stockholders' equity. However, declining profit margins and negative free cash flow pose concerns, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability and liquidity.

Income Statement

Atlas Energy Solutions has shown robust revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in total revenue from $172 million in 2021 to $1.16 billion in TTM 2025, indicating strong business expansion. The gross profit margin stands at 18.35% for TTM, however, there is a decline compared to previous years, signaling increased costs or pricing pressures. Net profit margin has decreased over time from 44.97% in 2022 to 2.96% in TTM 2025, which may indicate challenges in maintaining profitability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a positive EBIT and EBITDA margin, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Atlas Energy Solutions has a strong equity base, with Stockholders' Equity growing from negative in 2021 to over $1.3 billion by TTM 2025, illustrating improved financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio has decreased significantly, suggesting improved leverage management. However, the equity ratio is 56.71% in TTM, showing a stable capital structure but with room for improvement. Return on equity has declined significantly from 25.61% in 2022 to 2.64% TTM, indicating reduced profitability relative to shareholders' investment.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis indicates a solid operating cash flow of $209 million in TTM 2025, signifying strong cash generation capabilities. However, free cash flow is negative due to high capital expenditure, which may impact future liquidity if not managed. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, highlighting effective cash conversion despite lower net income. The company needs to address its free cash flow challenges to improve financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.06B	613.96M	482.72M	172.40M	111.77M
Gross Profit	232.01M	313.77M	256.31M	64.07M	17.77M
EBITDA	228.95M	307.16M	263.00M	71.97M	20.44M
Net Income	59.94M	159.99M	217.01M	4.26M	-34.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.97B	1.26B	751.00M	543.85M	521.74M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	71.70M	210.17M	82.01M	40.40M	36.07M
Total Debt	530.10M	177.99M	147.17M	175.58M	174.88M
Total Liabilities	936.10M	393.86M	239.64M	205.15M	190.04M
Stockholders Equity	1.04B	867.82M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-117.52M	-66.46M	116.42M	1.99M	2.95M
Operating Cash Flow	256.46M	299.03M	206.01M	21.36M	12.49M
Investing Cash Flow	-512.71M	-365.49M	-89.59M	-19.37M	-9.53M
Financing Cash Flow	117.78M	194.62M	-74.81M	2.34M	11.83M

Atlas Energy Solutions Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.05
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AESI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.78, above the 50-day MA of 13.50, and below the 200-day MA of 17.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AESI.

Atlas Energy Solutions Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LBRT	74 Outperform	$2.15B	8.78	13.18%	2.39%	-7.45%	-44.88%
SEI	72 Outperform	$2.29B	49.88	5.52%	1.42%	62.66%	-8.07%
WTTR	72 Outperform	$1.19B	28.38	4.51%	2.74%	-4.91%	-46.51%
MRC	67 Neutral	$1.24B	41.18	8.29%	―	-9.84%	-111.71%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$15.28B	9.73	6.25%	5.18%	4.49%	-71.88%
AESI	65 Neutral	$1.74B	45.59	2.90%	6.90%	77.72%	-75.78%
ACDC	57 Neutral	$1.31B	―	-20.15%	―	-6.13%	-76.84%

Atlas Energy Solutions Corporate Events

Atlas Energy Files Prospectus for Share Resale

On May 23, 2025, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. filed a prospectus supplement with the SEC for the resale of up to 1,727,764 shares of its common stock by a stockholder. This filing is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its equity and enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AESI) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Energy Solutions stock, see the AESI Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Energy Solutions Elects New Directors at Annual Meeting

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 8, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. elected new Class II directors for three-year terms, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as their independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and decided on an annual frequency for advisory votes on executive compensation. These decisions are expected to influence the company’s governance and financial oversight, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AESI) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Energy Solutions stock, see the AESI Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Energy Solutions Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results

Atlas Energy Solutions reported its financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting total sales of $297.6 million and a net income of $1.2 million. Despite higher operating costs due to the start-up of the Dune Express, the company maintained a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share. The acquisition of Moser Energy Systems and the start-up of the Dune Express were significant developments, positioning Atlas for future growth and operational efficiency improvements. However, the company faces uncertainty in the global economic outlook and commodity prices, leading some customers to defer development projects.