Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.48B
• Dividend Yield: 10.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.97M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.44
• Revenue Growth: 20.68%
• EPS Growth: -112.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,143
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 123,982,170
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,220,592
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,973,084
• PEG Ratio: -0.84
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.27
• P/FCF Ratio: -20.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.51
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.50
• 1Y Price Target: $11.88
• Price Target Upside: 1.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.38
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.07B

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.00 ▲(2.48% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/31/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/31/25

The score is held back primarily by weakening financial performance (declining revenue, margin compression, and negative free cash flow) and a bearish technical trend with negative momentum. Offsetting factors include strategic progress in the power business (supported by guidance and recent financing) and a high dividend yield, though the dividend suspension and negative P/E temper valuation support.

Positive Factors

Integrated in-basin supply and logistics

Owning in-basin mines plus contracted and company-operated last-mile logistics creates a durable cost and service advantage in the Permian. Integration improves delivered-cost competitiveness, supports higher asset utilization and captures margin beyond the mine gate over multi-year cycles.

Power business expansion with secured equipment funding

The leased funding and committed equipment order materially accelerates a new, contracted power platform, diversifying revenue away from cyclical sand sales. Structured financing reduces upfront capex burden and supports a multi-year buildout targeting 400+ MW by early 2027.

Improving leverage and stable capital structure

Lower leverage and a majority-equity capital base enhance financial flexibility to fund growth and absorb cyclicality. A 0.43 D/E and ~55% equity ratio reduce refinancing risk and support incremental investment in the power platform and operational improvements over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue and compressed margins

Persistent top-line decline and shrinking gross/net margins indicate pricing pressure or rising production costs in the core sand business. That undermines sustainable profitability, limits internal funding for growth projects, and raises the need for structural cost or pricing improvements.

Negative free cash flow and weak cash conversion

Negative FCF and poor conversion of earnings into free cash constrain the company’s ability to self-fund growth or absorb shocks. This increases reliance on external financing or lease structures for the power rollout and heightens liquidity risk during prolonged sand market weakness.

Operational disruptions and declining volumes

Facility-level operational failures and higher per-ton OpEx reduce unit economics and can persist until fixed operational fixes are implemented. Coupled with expected sand volume declines and logistics margin pressure, these issues threaten long-term utilization and margin recovery in the core business.

Atlas Energy Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. provides proppant and logistics services to the oil and natural gas industry within the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

AESI generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by offering hydraulic fracturing services to exploration and production companies in the oil and gas industry. The company charges clients based on the volume of services rendered and the complexity of the projects undertaken. Additionally, AESI earns income from its water management services, which include sourcing, transporting, and disposing of water used in drilling operations. Key partnerships with major oil and gas firms enhance its market reach and provide stable contracts, contributing significantly to its earnings. The company also focuses on research and development to introduce new technologies that can lead to additional revenue opportunities in the evolving energy landscape.

Atlas Energy Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak operating trends: revenue is down (-3.86% TTM), margins have compressed (gross margin 18.04% vs. 21.97% prior year), and net margin is very low (1.20%). Cash flow is a concern with negative free cash flow, partially offset by improved leverage (debt-to-equity 0.43) and a stable equity ratio (54.76%).

Income Statement

Atlas Energy Solutions shows a declining revenue growth rate of -3.86% in the TTM, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. The gross profit margin has decreased to 18.04% from 21.97% in the previous year, suggesting pressure on production costs or pricing power. The net profit margin is low at 1.20%, reflecting profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, indicating reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved to 0.43 in the TTM, indicating better leverage management compared to previous periods. However, the return on equity is low at 1.20%, suggesting limited returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio stands at 54.76%, reflecting a stable capital structure with a good proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains positive, with a coverage ratio of 1.10, indicating sufficient cash generation to cover net income. However, free cash flow is negative, highlighting potential liquidity issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is -7.64%, suggesting challenges in converting earnings into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.12B	1.06B	613.96M	482.72M	172.40M	111.77M
Gross Profit	173.01M	232.01M	313.77M	256.31M	64.07M	17.77M
EBITDA	209.70M	228.95M	307.19M	263.24M	71.89M	20.33M
Net Income	-13.66M	59.94M	159.99M	217.01M	4.26M	-34.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.23B	1.97B	1.26B	751.00M	543.85M	521.74M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	41.35M	71.70M	210.17M	82.01M	40.40M	36.07M
Total Debt	583.61M	530.10M	177.99M	147.17M	175.58M	174.88M
Total Liabilities	1.01B	936.10M	393.86M	239.64M	205.15M	190.04M
Stockholders Equity	1.22B	1.04B	867.82M	511.36M	338.70M	331.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-18.40M	-117.52M	-66.46M	116.42M	1.99M	2.95M
Operating Cash Flow	184.49M	256.46M	299.03M	206.01M	21.36M	12.49M
Investing Cash Flow	-408.16M	-512.71M	-365.49M	-89.59M	-19.37M	-9.53M
Financing Cash Flow	186.38M	117.78M	194.62M	-74.81M	2.34M	11.83M

Atlas Energy Solutions Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.71
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AESI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.75, above the 50-day MA of 10.79, and above the 200-day MA of 11.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AESI.

Atlas Energy Solutions Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LBRT	66 Neutral	$4.39B	30.33	7.29%	1.78%	-12.05%	-46.45%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
SEI	64 Neutral	$3.48B	55.79	9.45%	1.07%	92.33%	116.22%
WTTR	57 Neutral	$1.75B	70.26	2.48%	2.62%	-4.60%	-67.28%
ACDC	52 Neutral	$998.41M	-2.74	-31.46%	―	-11.92%	-53.72%
AESI	50 Neutral	$1.48B	-124.33	-1.20%	10.12%	20.68%	-112.42%

Atlas Energy Solutions Corporate Events

Atlas Energy Director Stacy Hock Plans Board Exit

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. director Stacy Hock, a member of the Compensation Committee and the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, notified the company on January 28, 2026, that she will not stand for reelection to the board at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. The decision was not due to any disagreement over the company’s operations, policies or practices, and Hock will continue to serve in her current board and committee roles until her term expires at the Annual Meeting, signaling an orderly and non-contentious board transition for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AESI) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Energy Solutions stock, see the AESI Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Energy Unveils Major Power Equipment Lease Agreement

On December 26, 2025, Atlas Energy Solutions’ subsidiary Galt Power Solutions LLC entered into a master lease and interim funding arrangement with Stonebriar Commercial Finance LLC to assign a reservation for approximately 240 megawatts of power generation equipment, with Stonebriar providing up to $385 million in advances and leasing the equipment back to Galt under a variable-rate structure, while Atlas Energy Solutions guarantees the obligations on an unsecured basis; the structure allows for early or end-of-term termination of the lease at predefined prices. On the same date, Atlas Sand Company, LLC and other subsidiaries executed a fourth amendment to their asset-based loan, security and guaranty agreement, enabling the formation of Galt and permitting Atlas Energy Solutions to provide the unsecured guarantee for Galt’s lease obligations, thereby aligning the company’s capital structure and credit arrangements with its expanded power generation equipment strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AESI) stock is a Hold with a $10.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Energy Solutions stock, see the AESI Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Energy Solutions Suspends Dividend for Growth Focus

Atlas Energy Solutions reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a total revenue of $259.6 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $40.2 million. The company announced the suspension of its quarterly dividend to focus on long-term growth opportunities, particularly in its power platform, which is rapidly expanding with plans to deploy over 400 megawatts of power generation capacity by early 2027. Despite a challenging market environment, Atlas is implementing a cost-saving initiative targeting $20 million in annual savings and is well-positioned to enhance its market position in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AESI) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Energy Solutions stock, see the AESI Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Energy Orders 240 MW for Power Expansion

On November 3, 2025, Atlas Energy Solutions announced the order of 240 megawatts of power generation equipment to expand its power business and meet growing customer demand for long-term power solutions. This strategic move is expected to help Atlas achieve its target of deploying 400 megawatts of power generation capacity by early 2027, positioning the company as a trusted partner in the power solutions industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AESI) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Energy Solutions stock, see the AESI Stock Forecast page.