Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.53B
• Dividend Yield: 7.01%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.84M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 40.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.19
• Revenue Growth: 77.72%
• EPS Growth: -75.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,143
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 123,621,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,043,719
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,840,924
• PEG Ratio: -0.92
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $17.63
• Price Target Upside: 40.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.00 ▲( 3.59% Upside)

Atlas Energy Solutions is in a transitional phase characterized by strong revenue growth and strategic expansions, notably through acquisitions. However, declining profit margins, negative free cash flow, and technical indicators suggesting bearish trends present challenges. While the high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns, the attractive dividend yield offers some compensation for investors. Caution is advised due to market volatility and deferred projects, although the company's strategic initiatives may position it for future improvements.

Positive Factors

Cost Efficiency

Atlas Energy's high-quality, low-cost mines allow for mining costs that are significantly lower than competitors.

Growth Opportunities

The company's power generation business, Moser, provides significant growth opportunities and is expected to drive long-term growth and margins.

Shareholder Value

Strong future free cash flow expectations support a 7.6% dividend yield and stock buybacks, enhancing shareholder value.

Negative Factors

Earnings Risk

AESI is not only a debate stock, but a divisive one with concerns about downward earnings revision risk in the most commoditized part of the market.

Market Oversupply

There are risks to Power Services margins due to MW oversupply and potential lack of adoption of autonomous trucking and multi-trailers.

Atlas Energy Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. provides proppant and logistics services to the oil and natural gas industry within the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Atlas Energy Solutions generates revenue through various streams primarily centered around its core offerings in the energy sector. The company earns income by providing specialized energy solutions and technologies that improve the efficiency of energy production and management. These solutions may include advanced software, equipment, and consulting services tailored to the specific needs of their clients. Additionally, AESI may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other industry players to expand their market reach and enhance their service offerings. Revenue is also generated from long-term contracts with clients, which ensure a steady income flow and foster ongoing business relationships. The company's focus on innovation and sustainability likely positions it to benefit from the growing demand for environmentally friendly energy practices.

Atlas Energy Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Atlas Energy Solutions demonstrates strong revenue growth and improved financial stability over recent years, reflecting successful expansion efforts. However, declining profit margins and negative free cash flow are areas of concern that need addressing to sustain long-term growth. The balance sheet indicates strengthened equity and reduced leverage, contributing to a more robust financial position. Overall, the company is in a transition phase with both opportunities and challenges ahead.

Income Statement

Atlas Energy Solutions has shown robust revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in total revenue from $172 million in 2021 to $1.16 billion in TTM 2025, indicating strong business expansion. The gross profit margin stands at 18.35% for TTM, however, there is a decline compared to previous years, signaling increased costs or pricing pressures. Net profit margin has decreased over time from 44.97% in 2022 to 2.96% in TTM 2025, which may indicate challenges in maintaining profitability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a positive EBIT and EBITDA margin, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Atlas Energy Solutions has a strong equity base, with Stockholders' Equity growing from negative in 2021 to over $1.3 billion by TTM 2025, illustrating improved financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio has decreased significantly, suggesting improved leverage management. However, the equity ratio is 56.71% in TTM, showing a stable capital structure but with room for improvement. Return on equity has declined significantly from 25.61% in 2022 to 2.64% TTM, indicating reduced profitability relative to shareholders' investment.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis indicates a solid operating cash flow of $209 million in TTM 2025, signifying strong cash generation capabilities. However, free cash flow is negative due to high capital expenditure, which may impact future liquidity if not managed. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, highlighting effective cash conversion despite lower net income. The company needs to address its free cash flow challenges to improve financial flexibility.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.16B	1.06B	613.96M	482.72M	172.40M	111.77M
	Gross Profit
213.13M	232.01M	313.77M	256.31M	64.07M	17.77M
	EBIT
90.63M	113.88M	265.13M	231.99M	47.00M	-1.23M
	EBITDA
184.41M	228.95M	307.16M	262.63M	71.97M	20.44M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
34.38M	59.94M	159.99M	217.01M	4.26M	-34.44M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
187.12M	71.70M	210.17M	82.01M	40.40M	36.07M
	Total Assets
1.94B	1.97B	1.26B	751.00M	543.85M	521.74M
	Total Debt
481.30M	530.10M	172.82M	147.17M	175.58M	174.88M
	Net Debt
294.18M	458.39M	-37.35M	65.16M	135.18M	138.81M
	Total Liabilities
875.25M	936.10M	393.86M	239.64M	205.15M	190.04M
	Stockholders Equity
1.07B	1.04B	867.82M	84.72M	-87.26M	-81.52M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-121.44M	-117.52M	-66.46M	116.42M	1.99M	2.95M
	Operating Cash Flow
209.45M	256.46M	299.03M	206.01M	21.36M	12.49M
	Investing Cash Flow
-503.49M	-512.71M	-365.49M	-89.59M	-19.37M	-9.53M
	Financing Cash Flow
175.60M	117.78M	194.62M	-74.81M	2.34M	11.83M

Atlas Energy Solutions Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AESI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.04, below the 50-day MA of 14.57, and below the 200-day MA of 19.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AESI.

Atlas Energy Solutions Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TDW	78 Outperform	$1.95B	11.81	16.24%	―	19.34%	31.76%
OII	73 Outperform	$1.91B	10.63	26.17%	―	10.04%	68.14%
LBRT	71 Outperform	$1.88B	7.70	13.18%	2.65%	-7.45%	-44.88%
HP	66 Neutral	$1.55B	7.12	7.57%	8.81%	12.23%	-37.06%
GLP	65 Neutral	$1.67B	15.63	16.23%	5.89%	6.04%	18.28%
AESI	60 Neutral	$1.53B	40.38	2.90%	7.01%	77.72%	-75.78%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.06B	3.07	-3.45%	5.82%	0.59%	-50.58%

Atlas Energy Solutions Corporate Events

Atlas Energy Solutions Elects New Directors at Annual Meeting

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 8, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. elected new Class II directors for three-year terms, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as their independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and decided on an annual frequency for advisory votes on executive compensation. These decisions are expected to influence the company’s governance and financial oversight, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AESI) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Energy Solutions stock, see the AESI Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Energy Solutions Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results

Atlas Energy Solutions reported its financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting total sales of $297.6 million and a net income of $1.2 million. Despite higher operating costs due to the start-up of the Dune Express, the company maintained a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share. The acquisition of Moser Energy Systems and the start-up of the Dune Express were significant developments, positioning Atlas for future growth and operational efficiency improvements. However, the company faces uncertainty in the global economic outlook and commodity prices, leading some customers to defer development projects.

Atlas Energy Solutions Announces $540M Refinancing Agreement

On February 21, 2025, Atlas Energy Solutions announced a refinancing agreement with Stonebriar Commercial Finance for a $540 million term loan, which will be used to repay existing facilities and for general corporate purposes. Additionally, on February 24, 2025, the company entered into a registration rights agreement related to the Moser Acquisition, impacting its financial strategies and market operations.

Atlas Energy Solutions Acquires Moser Energy Systems

Atlas Energy Solutions reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, with total sales reaching $1.1 billion, a 72% increase from the previous year. The company completed the acquisition of Moser Energy Systems on February 24, 2025, for $220 million, enhancing its market position and providing a platform for future growth in distributed power solutions.