Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.29B
• Dividend Yield: 10.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.97M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.44
• Revenue Growth: 20.68%
• EPS Growth: -112.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,143
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.18
• Shares Outstanding: 123,982,170
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,220,592
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,973,084
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.95
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.05
• P/FCF Ratio: -37.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.18
• 1Y Price Target: $12.23
• Price Target Upside: 17.94% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(10.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/24/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/24/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: a much stronger, lower-leverage balance sheet offsets a 2025 profitability downturn and still-negative free cash flow. Earnings-call commentary adds moderate support via improving volumes and the power-growth strategy, but near-term pricing and cost pressures (plus higher interest expense and execution risk) cap upside. Technicals and valuation are neutral overall, with a high dividend yield balanced by a loss-driven negative P/E.

Positive Factors

Balance-sheet strength

Sharp deleveraging to a very low debt-to-equity ratio materially reduces refinancing risk and provides flexibility to fund maintenance, opportunistic growth or weather cyclical sand demand. A strong capital base supports multi-year investments like the power buildout without immediate solvency pressure.

Integrated logistics advantage

High Dune Express utilization creates a durable in-basin logistics moat: lower delivered costs versus out-of-basin sand, captured logistics margin beyond the mine gate, and operational scale that is attractive to large E&P customers and reduces per-ton unit costs over time.

Power-as-a-service strategic shift

Pivot into behind-the-meter power and microgrids targets long-term contracted revenue (5–15 year deals) that diversifies away from cyclical sand sales. If executed, utility-scale pipeline and equipment orders can create durable, receivable-like cash flows and higher-margin services over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Weak sand pricing

Industry pricing near or below marginal cost exerts ongoing pressure on gross margins and operating profitability. Persistent weak sand and logistics pricing compresses returns on invested capital and makes multi-year revenue growth less valuable unless structural cost advantages or contract protections are secured.

Negative free cash flow

Declining OCF and continued negative free cash flow mean the business still requires external funding for growth and capex. Sustained FCF deficits limit self-financing of the power buildout and may force higher leverage or slower organic investment, constraining long-term return potential.

Rising interest & financing reliance

Growing interest costs and reliance on a large equipment lease facility increase earnings sensitivity to financing and execution timing. If power equipment deliveries, interconnections or contract energizations slip, higher financing costs and guarantees raise cash-flow risk and could erode the payoff from the strategic pivot.

Atlas Energy Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. provides proppant and logistics services to the oil and natural gas industry within the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

AESI generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by offering hydraulic fracturing services to exploration and production companies in the oil and gas industry. The company charges clients based on the volume of services rendered and the complexity of the projects undertaken. Additionally, AESI earns income from its water management services, which include sourcing, transporting, and disposing of water used in drilling operations. Key partnerships with major oil and gas firms enhance its market reach and provide stable contracts, contributing significantly to its earnings. The company also focuses on research and development to introduce new technologies that can lead to additional revenue opportunities in the evolving energy landscape.

Atlas Energy Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed. The balance sheet is a clear strength with sharply reduced leverage in 2025 (very low debt-to-equity), but operating performance weakened: 2025 revenue slipped slightly and profitability swung to a net loss with materially lower gross margin. Operating cash flow stayed positive, yet it declined meaningfully and free cash flow remained negative (though improved), indicating ongoing reinvestment/working-capital pressure.

Income Statement

Revenue scaled rapidly from 2020–2024 (from ~$112M to ~$1.06B) but stalled in 2025 (down ~2% YoY). Profitability has been volatile: strong margins and earnings in 2022–2024 reversed in 2025, with negative operating profit and a net loss (net margin ~-4.6%) alongside a materially lower gross margin (~13.8% vs ~22.0% in 2024). Strength is demonstrated ability to generate high profitability in prior years; weakness is the sharp 2025 margin compression and earnings swing back to losses.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved dramatically in 2025, with total debt dropping to ~$41M and debt-to-equity falling to ~0.03 (from ~0.51 in 2024), giving the company substantial balance-sheet flexibility. Equity has grown to ~$1.21B on ~$2.23B of assets, supporting financial resilience. The key weakness is that returns on equity were much stronger in earlier years (2022–2023) but profitability deterioration in 2025 reduces the near-term benefit of the stronger capital structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains positive but weakened in 2025 (~$117M vs ~$256M in 2024), indicating reduced cash generation alongside the earnings decline. Free cash flow is negative in both 2024 and 2025 (about -$118M and -$31M), suggesting elevated reinvestment or working-capital demands, although the free-cash outflow improved meaningfully in 2025. A positive is that cash flow held up better than earnings in 2025 (operating cash flow stayed positive despite a net loss), but sustained negative free cash flow is a continuing drawback.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.10B	1.06B	613.96M	482.72M	172.40M
Gross Profit	121.81M	232.01M	313.77M	256.31M	64.07M
EBITDA	178.82M	228.95M	307.19M	263.24M	71.89M
Net Income	-50.30M	59.94M	159.99M	217.01M	4.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.23B	1.97B	1.26B	751.00M	543.85M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	40.63M	71.70M	210.17M	82.01M	40.40M
Total Debt	578.92M	530.10M	177.99M	147.17M	175.58M
Total Liabilities	1.02B	936.10M	393.86M	239.64M	205.15M
Stockholders Equity	1.21B	1.04B	867.82M	511.36M	338.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-30.93M	-117.52M	-66.46M	116.42M	1.99M
Operating Cash Flow	117.35M	256.46M	299.03M	206.01M	21.36M
Investing Cash Flow	-344.82M	-512.71M	-365.49M	-89.59M	-19.37M
Financing Cash Flow	196.41M	117.78M	194.62M	-74.81M	2.34M

Atlas Energy Solutions Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.37
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AESI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.64, below the 50-day MA of 10.81, and below the 200-day MA of 11.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AESI.

Atlas Energy Solutions Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LBRT	66 Neutral	$4.58B	29.79	7.29%	1.78%	-12.05%	-46.45%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
SEI	64 Neutral	$3.66B	55.64	9.45%	1.07%	92.33%	116.22%
AESI	61 Neutral	$1.29B	-25.55	-1.20%	10.12%	20.68%	-112.42%
WTTR	58 Neutral	$1.84B	62.36	2.48%	2.62%	-4.60%	-67.28%
ACDC	52 Neutral	$929.68M	-2.51	-31.46%	―	-11.92%	-53.72%

Atlas Energy Solutions Corporate Events

Atlas Energy Reports 2025 Results, Highlights Power Expansion

Atlas Energy Solutions reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 23, 2026, showing annual revenue of $1.1 billion, a net loss of $50.3 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $221.7 million. Full-year volumes reached 21.6 million tons, including 5.9 million tons shipped via its Dune Express system, underscoring the growing role of its logistics infrastructure despite margin pressure.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue was $249.4 million with a net loss of $22.2 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $36.7 million, as softer pricing and higher costs weighed on profitability even as sand volumes held steady at 5.3 million tons. Management highlighted stronger-than-expected year-end activity, higher Dune Express utilization and a pipeline of more than 2 GW of potential behind-the-meter power opportunities, including 240 MW of ordered equipment, signaling a strategic push to diversify cash flows beyond the Permian sand market.

As of December 31, 2025, Atlas held $108.5 million in total liquidity, split between cash and availability under its ABL credit facility, supporting continued investment in growth projects. Executives framed the emerging power business and improving logistics performance as key levers to reshape the company’s future earnings profile while Permian activity remains subdued.

The most recent analyst rating on (AESI) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Energy Solutions stock, see the AESI Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Energy Director Stacy Hock Plans Board Exit

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. director Stacy Hock, a member of the Compensation Committee and the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, notified the company on January 28, 2026, that she will not stand for reelection to the board at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. The decision was not due to any disagreement over the company’s operations, policies or practices, and Hock will continue to serve in her current board and committee roles until her term expires at the Annual Meeting, signaling an orderly and non-contentious board transition for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AESI) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Energy Solutions stock, see the AESI Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Energy Unveils Major Power Equipment Lease Agreement

On December 26, 2025, Atlas Energy Solutions’ subsidiary Galt Power Solutions LLC entered into a master lease and interim funding arrangement with Stonebriar Commercial Finance LLC to assign a reservation for approximately 240 megawatts of power generation equipment, with Stonebriar providing up to $385 million in advances and leasing the equipment back to Galt under a variable-rate structure, while Atlas Energy Solutions guarantees the obligations on an unsecured basis; the structure allows for early or end-of-term termination of the lease at predefined prices. On the same date, Atlas Sand Company, LLC and other subsidiaries executed a fourth amendment to their asset-based loan, security and guaranty agreement, enabling the formation of Galt and permitting Atlas Energy Solutions to provide the unsecured guarantee for Galt’s lease obligations, thereby aligning the company’s capital structure and credit arrangements with its expanded power generation equipment strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AESI) stock is a Hold with a $10.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Energy Solutions stock, see the AESI Stock Forecast page.