Accel Entertainment (ACEL)
NYSE:ACEL
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Accel Entertainment
(NYSE:ACEL)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(12.50% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/06/26
ACEL scores well primarily on improving fundamentals (strong revenue scale-up, solid operating cash flow, and materially improved reported leverage) and a positive earnings update emphasizing free-cash-flow growth and continued buybacks. Technicals are supportive with an uptrend across key moving averages. Valuation is reasonable on earnings (P/E ~15), though the lack of a dividend and still-thin margins keep the overall score from being higher.
Positive Factors
Scaleable Revenue Growth
Sustained multi-year revenue growth to $1.33B demonstrates the company has scaled its distributed gaming footprint and monetization. Scale supports bargaining power with venues, spreads fixed costs across a larger base, and underpins durable route economics and optionality for network densification.
Negative Factors
Regulatory & Market-Timing Risk (Chicago)
Material upside from Chicago placements depends on rule promulgation and approvals that remain unresolved. Regulatory delays or adverse rule outcomes could defer sizable growth catalysts, compress expected returns on planned deployments, and increase execution risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scaleable Revenue Growth
Sustained multi-year revenue growth to $1.33B demonstrates the company has scaled its distributed gaming footprint and monetization. Scale supports bargaining power with venues, spreads fixed costs across a larger base, and underpins durable route economics and optionality for network densification.
Read all positive factors
Accel Entertainment (ACEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$996.01M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)402.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.0
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth8.12%
EPS Growth44.97%
CountryUS
Employees1,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.61
Shares Outstanding81,573,250
10 Day Avg. Volume531,042
30 Day Avg. Volume402,824
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.42
Price to Book (P/B)3.60
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio15.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.33
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.26
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.00Price Target Upside25.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.39B
Accel Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Accel Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a distributed gaming operator in the United States. It is involved in the installation, maintenance, and operation of gaming terminals; redemption devices that disburse winning...
How the Company Makes Money
Accel Entertainment makes money primarily through revenue share from distributed gaming. Its core model is to place and operate video gaming terminals (and related gaming equipment) in third-party locations (e.g., bars and restaurants) under agree...
Accel Entertainment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial performance: record quarterly revenue, 9% adjusted EBITDA growth, strong outperformance in developing markets (notably Nebraska and Georgia), completed TITO rollout in Illinois, accretive acquisitions/partnerships in Nevada, continued share repurchases, and a solid liquidity position (cash of $274M and undrawn $300M revolver). Key near-term challenges include flat net income/EPS (impacted by D&A and purse accrual timing), early-stage TITO adoption and mixed near-term cash effects, regulatory and legislative uncertainties (Chicago market timing and contested rules), and ongoing evaluation of Fairmont Park’s permanent plans. Overall, positive operational momentum and balance sheet flexibility outweigh the manageable execution and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Total Q1 2026 revenue increased 9% year-over-year to $352 million, marking the company’s highest-ever quarterly revenue on record.
Negative Updates
Flat Net Income and EPS
Net income was $15 million (flat YoY) and diluted EPS was $0.17, unchanged from Q1 2025, as higher operating income was offset by increased depreciation/amortization and timing of purse expense.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Total Q1 2026 revenue increased 9% year-over-year to $352 million, marking the company’s highest-ever quarterly revenue on record.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s guidance and near-term expectations emphasized disciplined capital allocation and growing free cash flow: Q1 results set a strong baseline with revenue $352M (+9% YoY), net gaming revenue $331M (+10%), adjusted EBITDA $54M (+9%), operating cash flow $43M, free cash flow $20M (38% cash conversion), and diluted EPS $0.17; the business ended the quarter with 4,540 locations and 28,353 terminals (up 3% and 4% YoY), $274M cash, $581M total debt (net debt ≈ $306M) and net leverage ≈ 1.4x, while the $300M revolver remains undrawn. Full-year CapEx is guided to $60–70M (Q1 CapEx $23M; 2025 CapEx ≈ $89M), with most spending maintenance-oriented and growth capital concentrated in developing markets; management expects free cash flow to grow as CapEx normalizes and developing markets scale. Capital return and liquidity metrics: ~1.1M shares repurchased for $12M YTD 2026 (18.7M shares / ~$195.6M repurchased since Nov 2021; ~$151.2M remaining authorization), and a new interest-rate collar (cap 4%, floor 2.92%) in place through Sep 2029. Operationally, management expects TITO benefits to build through the remainder of 2026 (early adoption ≈13%, internal upside to ~20%), sees Chicago VGTs potentially going live late 2026–2027, and highlighted strong developing-market growth (Nebraska revenue +57% / hold per day +57%; Georgia revenue +43% / hold per day +14%; Nevada locations +27% / terminals +28%; Louisiana revenue +12%), plus a $0.5M purse increase at Fairmont Park tied to live table game rollouts.Accel Entertainment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.33B | 1.23B | 1.17B | 969.80M | 734.71M |
| Gross Profit | 422.84M | 371.50M | 353.23M | 298.90M | 240.68M |
| EBITDA | 186.80M | 156.18M | 157.99M | 163.18M | 105.95M |
| Net Income | 51.47M | 35.25M | 45.60M | 74.10M | 31.56M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.13B | 1.05B | 912.89M | 862.77M | 616.07M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 296.57M | 281.31M | 261.61M | 256.18M | 230.85M |
| Total Debt | 629.35M | 595.38M | 542.57M | 542.03M | 341.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 852.80M | 789.09M | 714.49M | 684.18M | 457.61M |
| Stockholders Equity | 269.68M | 255.03M | 198.40M | 178.59M | 158.46M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 61.95M | 54.65M | 50.79M | 60.62M | 81.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 150.88M | 121.19M | 132.53M | 108.00M | 110.75M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -100.55M | -124.15M | -59.79M | -189.26M | -34.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -35.06M | 22.65M | -35.24M | 106.59M | -11.88M |
Accel Entertainment Technical Analysis
Positive
12.00
Price Trends
11.29
Positive
11.19
Positive
11.18
Positive
Market Momentum
0.17
Negative
64.59
Neutral
88.00
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.33, above the 50-day MA of 11.29, and above the 200-day MA of 11.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ACEL.
Accel Entertainment Risk Analysis
Accel Entertainment disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Accel Entertainment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Accel Entertainment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $996.01M | 15.01 | 19.49% | ― | 8.12% | 44.97% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $90.84M | -1.90 | -233.17% | ― | 3.53% | 4.02% | |
56 Neutral | $189.42M | -9.44 | 184.28% | ― | 1.47% | -124.61% | |
53 Neutral | $753.69M | -20.89 | -1.37% | 3.71% | -4.78% | -113.11% | |
53 Neutral | $547.86M | 10.24 | -10.84% | ― | 9.05% | 59.31% | |
47 Neutral | $624.89M | -0.71 | -116.69% | ― | 8.42% | -8.45% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ACEL
Accel Entertainment
12.21
0.95
8.44%
FLL
Full House Resorts
2.51
-0.56
-18.24%
GDEN
Golden Entertainment
28.55
3.83
15.49%
INSE
Inspired Entertainment
7.00
-0.51
-6.79%
MSC
Studio City International Holdings
2.60
0.05
1.96%
BALY
Bally's Corporation
12.82
1.29
11.19%
Accel Entertainment Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Accel Entertainment Delivers Record Q1 Revenue, Highlights Growth
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Accel Entertainment reported quarterly record revenue of $352 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, up 9% year over year, with locations and gaming terminals increasing 3% and 4%, respectively, and adjusted EBITDA ris...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Accel Entertainment posts record Q4 and 2025 results
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Accel Entertainment reported record financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighted by a 7.5% year-over-year revenue increase in the quarter to $341.4 million and full-year revenue of $...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.