Accel Entertainment (ACEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $975.20M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 402.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 7.97%
• EPS Growth: 0.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 83,207,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 531,042
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 402,824
• PEG Ratio: -1.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.31
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.32
• 1Y Price Target: $14.00
• Price Target Upside: 19.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $13.00 ▲(10.92% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance with improved leverage and steady cash generation, alongside bullish technical trends. Positive earnings-call momentum (strong revenue/EBITDA growth and expanding developing markets) adds support, while valuation (P/E 22.82 with no dividend) and execution risk in specific markets (Nevada weakness; uncertain timing for Chicago opportunity) temper the upside.

Positive Factors

Consistent operating cash generation

Operating cash flow roughly equals net income on a trailing basis, indicating the business reliably converts earnings into cash. This durable cash generation supports reinvestment in routes, modest buybacks, and funding of M&A without immediate reliance on equity markets.

Enhanced liquidity via credit facility

A $900M senior secured facility materially strengthens liquidity and lowers cost of capital, improving capacity to fund route optimization, tuck-in acquisitions, and working capital needs. This structural financing reduces refinancing risk and supports multi-year growth execution.

Growth in developing markets and M&A integration

High double-digit expansion in developing states and a smooth Louisiana acquisition integration demonstrate scalable route economics and execution capability. Durable market share gains across new jurisdictions expand addressable base and reduce reliance on legacy markets over time.

Negative Factors

Low net profitability

A sub-5% net margin limits retained earnings and sensitivity to revenue shocks. Sustained low profitability constrains the firm's ability to self-fund larger investments or absorb cost pressures, increasing dependence on external financing or capital allocation trade-offs.

Weak free cash flow conversion

FCF converts just over a third of reported net income, indicating cash available after capex is limited. This structural constraint can impede sustained share repurchases, larger acquisitions, or rapid route rollouts without increasing leverage or diluting shareholders.

Revenue concentration and market timing risk

Core markets (Illinois and Montana) account for the majority of revenue, concentrating performance risk. Potential Chicago expansion is structural but slow to mature, so industry/regulatory timing and long multi-year ramps could delay diversification benefits and amplify near-term geographic dependence.

Accel Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Accel Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a distributed gaming operator in the United States. It is involved in the installation, maintenance, and operation of gaming terminals; redemption devices that disburse winnings and contain automated teller machine (ATM) functionality; and other amusement devices in authorized non-casino locations, such as restaurants, bars, taverns, convenience stores, liquor stores, truck stops, and grocery stores. The company also provides licensed establishment partners gaming solutions that appeal to players who patronize those businesses. In addition, it operates stand-alone ATMs in gaming and non-gaming locations, as well as amusement devices, including jukeboxes, dartboards, pool tables, pinball machines, and other related entertainment equipment. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 13,639 video gaming terminals across 2,584 locations in Illinois. Accel Entertainment, Inc. is headquartered in Burr Ridge, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Accel Entertainment generates revenue primarily through the operation and management of video gaming terminals (VGTs) and amusement devices. The company earns a percentage of the net gaming revenue generated from these machines, which is derived from the wagers made by players. Key revenue streams include the sharing of revenue with venue operators, where Accel provides the machines in exchange for a specified percentage of the earnings. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships with various establishments to expand its footprint, and it benefits from the growing acceptance of legalized gaming across different regions. Factors such as market expansion, regulatory developments, and customer engagement strategies also significantly contribute to its earnings.

Accel Entertainment Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Accel Entertainment shows a positive growth trajectory with stable revenue growth and improved debt management. While profitability margins and return on equity have room for enhancement, the company is on a solid path with consistent cash flow generation.

Income Statement

Accel Entertainment has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.15% and a strong historical trend. Gross profit margins have remained stable around 31%, indicating efficient cost management. However, net profit margins are relatively low at 3.34%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company has significantly reduced its debt levels, with a current debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, down from previous years. This indicates improved financial stability. However, the return on equity has decreased to 14.35% from higher levels in the past, suggesting a need for more efficient use of equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been consistent, with a TTM operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.03, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow growth is positive at 2.37%, showing improvement. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.36 suggests limited free cash flow relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.31B	1.23B	1.17B	969.80M	734.71M	316.35M
Gross Profit	405.55M	371.50M	353.23M	298.90M	240.68M	105.27M
EBITDA	174.11M	156.18M	157.99M	163.18M	105.95M	39.96M
Net Income	43.67M	35.25M	45.60M	74.10M	31.56M	-410.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.09B	1.05B	912.89M	862.77M	616.07M	595.28M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	292.18M	281.31M	261.61M	256.18M	230.85M	134.45M
Total Debt	602.74M	595.38M	542.57M	542.03M	341.52M	345.81M
Total Liabilities	814.12M	789.09M	714.49M	684.18M	457.61M	467.41M
Stockholders Equity	267.12M	255.03M	198.40M	178.59M	158.46M	127.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	48.06M	54.65M	50.79M	60.62M	81.00M	-29.47M
Operating Cash Flow	133.32M	121.19M	132.53M	108.00M	110.75M	-3.71M
Investing Cash Flow	-114.62M	-124.15M	-59.79M	-189.26M	-34.54M	-61.44M
Financing Cash Flow	6.45M	22.65M	-35.24M	106.59M	-11.88M	74.19M

Accel Entertainment Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.72
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.33, above the 50-day MA of 10.63, and above the 200-day MA of 11.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 67.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ACEL.

Accel Entertainment Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACEL	73 Outperform	$975.20M	23.20	18.43%	―	7.97%	0.92%
INSE	69 Neutral	$253.11M	4.72	―	―	4.03%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
GDEN	57 Neutral	$719.62M	147.24	1.15%	3.71%	-12.25%	-84.89%
BALY	54 Neutral	$794.46M	-2.05	-114.88%	―	0.36%	47.55%
FLL	51 Neutral	$92.11M	-2.28	-121.54%	―	7.45%	5.03%
MSC	40 Neutral	$733.29M	-10.15	-11.41%	―	9.50%	24.64%

Accel Entertainment Corporate Events

Accel Entertainment explores Chicago distributed gaming expansion opportunity

On January 8, 2026, Accel Entertainment announced it is evaluating opportunities to bring its distributed gaming and local entertainment model to the city of Chicago, following the city’s consideration of allowing Video Gaming Terminals (VGTs) in licensed locations. An analysis from the City Council Office of Financial Analysis projects that the proposed Chicago VGT framework could yield about $64 million in incremental annual tax revenue and support an estimated $1 billion in annual gross gaming revenue once fully ramped—over a period that may take up to 10 years—implying roughly $320 million in incremental net terminal income for VGT operators based on current revenue splits. Leveraging its strong balance sheet, existing infrastructure, and route management capabilities, Accel believes it is well positioned to participate in this potential market and is assessing capital deployment strategies, ramp timing, and cost structures, while monitoring regulatory developments and planning to update investors as the city’s VGT framework takes shape.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACEL) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Accel Entertainment stock, see the ACEL Stock Forecast page.