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Accel Entertainment (ACEL)
NYSE:ACEL
US Market

Accel Entertainment (ACEL) AI Stock Analysis

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Accel Entertainment

(NYSE:ACEL)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$12.50
▲(11.51%Upside)
Accel Entertainment's stock is rated well due to its strong financial performance, highlighted by consistent revenue growth and robust cash flows, which are supported by positive technical indicators. The earnings call underscores operational successes and strategic expansions, despite minor setbacks. The valuation is moderate, reflecting a balanced risk-reward profile.

Accel Entertainment (ACEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Accel Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAccel Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a distributed gaming operator in the United States. It is involved in the installation, maintenance, and operation of gaming terminals; redemption devices that disburse winnings and contain automated teller machine (ATM) functionality; and other amusement devices in authorized non-casino locations, such as restaurants, bars, taverns, convenience stores, liquor stores, truck stops, and grocery stores. The company also provides licensed establishment partners gaming solutions that appeal to players who patronize those businesses. In addition, it operates stand-alone ATMs in gaming and non-gaming locations, as well as amusement devices, including jukeboxes, dartboards, pool tables, pinball machines, and other related entertainment equipment. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 13,639 video gaming terminals across 2,584 locations in Illinois. Accel Entertainment, Inc. is headquartered in Burr Ridge, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyAccel Entertainment generates revenue primarily by operating video gaming terminals (VGTs) in licensed establishments, such as bars, restaurants, and other venues. The company's revenue model is based on a revenue-sharing agreement with these establishments, where a percentage of the net terminal income (NTI) from the VGTs is shared between Accel Entertainment and the location owners. The company also earns revenue from providing related services, including installation, maintenance, and repair of the gaming machines. Additionally, Accel Entertainment benefits from strategic partnerships with manufacturers and distributors of gaming equipment, which support its operations and growth in the gaming sector.

Accel Entertainment Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 4.28%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call for Accel Entertainment highlighted significant achievements, such as record revenue and successful expansions, despite facing some challenges like a revenue decline in Nevada and a key leadership change. The company's strong performance in various markets and successful integration of acquisitions suggest a positive outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Quarterly Revenue
Accel Entertainment reported total revenue of $344 million for Q1 2025, marking its highest quarterly revenue since going public. This represents a 7% year-over-year growth.
Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth
The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $50 million, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase.
Successful Fairmount Park Casino Opening
Fairmount Park Casino opened on April 18, ahead of schedule and under budget, contributing to the company's growth and marking a significant milestone as the first racino in Illinois.
Growth in Key Markets
Illinois and Montana saw revenue growth of 4% and 8% year-over-year respectively. Nebraska and Georgia experienced strong double-digit revenue growth, with Georgia's revenue per day increasing by 59.3% year-over-year.
Strategic Expansion and Acquisition
Completed the integration of recently acquired operations in Louisiana, adding 96 locations and 614 terminals, expected to drive future synergies and performance improvements.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline in Nevada
Nevada experienced a small revenue decline in the first quarter due to the loss of a key customer from an ownership change, with revenue per day decreasing by 5.3% year-over-year.
CFO Departure
Matt Ellis, the CFO, announced his departure, effective May 9, creating a temporary leadership gap as the company searches for a permanent replacement.
Company Guidance
During the Accel Entertainment Q1 2025 earnings call, several key financial metrics and guidance were provided. The company reported a record quarterly revenue of $344 million, marking a 7% year-over-year increase, alongside an adjusted EBITDA of $50 million, also up by 7%. The growth was driven by stable revenue increases in Illinois and Montana, with 4% and 8% year-over-year growth, respectively. Nebraska and Georgia experienced double-digit growth, while Nevada faced a slight decline. The company completed integration in Louisiana, adding 96 locations and 614 terminals, and announced the opening of Fairmount Park Casino, Illinois's first racino. Looking forward, Accel projects capital expenditures for 2025 to be between $75 million and $80 million, with future normalized annual CapEx expected to return to $40 million to $45 million. The company emphasized its strategy of optimizing locations and leveraging its distributed gaming model to drive growth and improve free cash flow.

Accel Entertainment Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Accel Entertainment demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, improving leverage metrics, and robust cash flow generation. While the balance sheet could benefit from higher equity levels, the company maintains a solid financial footing with efficient operations and cash management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Accel Entertainment shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability. The TTM revenue growth rate of 1.79% and consistent gross profit margin near 32% suggest stable operations. The net profit margin also improved to 3.39% in TTM, indicating better cost management.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13 in TTM, down from previous years, which is favorable. However, the equity ratio stands at 24.74%, reflecting a decent but not high level of equity cushioning. ROE improved to 16.39% in TTM, showing efficient use of equity capital.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Free cash flow growth was robust at 18.05% in TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.23 in TTM suggests efficient cash conversion from profits. Free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.52, affirming solid cash retention.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.25B1.23B1.17B969.80M734.71M316.35M
Gross Profit
405.42M378.60M353.23M298.90M240.68M105.27M
EBIT
91.28M90.88M107.41M96.86M70.19M-24.68M
EBITDA
134.86M133.56M157.99M163.18M105.95M39.96M
Net Income Common Stockholders
42.48M35.25M45.60M74.10M31.56M-12.98M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
271.94M281.31M261.61M256.18M230.85M134.45M
Total Assets
1.05B1.05B912.89M862.77M616.07M560.24M
Total Debt
34.28M595.38M542.57M542.03M341.52M340.14M
Net Debt
-237.66M314.07M280.96M317.92M142.74M205.69M
Total Liabilities
653.17M789.09M714.49M684.18M457.61M432.36M
Stockholders Equity
259.07M255.03M198.40M178.59M158.46M127.88M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
64.53M54.65M50.79M60.62M81.00M-29.47M
Operating Cash Flow
137.20M121.19M132.53M108.00M110.75M-3.71M
Investing Cash Flow
-124.44M-124.15M-59.79M-189.26M-34.54M-61.44M
Financing Cash Flow
5.26M22.65M-35.24M106.59M-11.88M74.19M

Accel Entertainment Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price11.21
Price Trends
50DMA
11.18
Positive
100DMA
11.02
Positive
200DMA
11.19
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.05
Positive
RSI
47.14
Neutral
STOCH
28.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACEL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.32, above the 50-day MA of 11.18, and above the 200-day MA of 11.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ACEL.

Accel Entertainment Risk Analysis

Accel Entertainment disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Accel Entertainment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Accel Entertainment Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$951.37M22.6318.42%6.28%-1.99%
76
Outperform
$1.54B16.4118.31%1.44%3.84%19.95%
AGAGS
73
Outperform
$513.42M10.7649.64%6.60%778.46%
62
Neutral
$6.86B11.072.77%4.27%2.66%-24.95%
62
Neutral
$1.23B87.795.81%-6.41%-75.66%
57
Neutral
$727.90M70.402.18%3.63%-31.14%-95.88%
44
Neutral
$741.76M-65.87%-1.93%15.16%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ACEL
Accel Entertainment
11.21
1.20
11.99%
EVRI
Everi Holdings
14.23
6.20
77.21%
MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort
83.58
16.52
24.63%
GDEN
Golden Entertainment
27.96
-1.63
-5.51%
AGS
Playags
12.38
0.85
7.37%
BALY
Bally's Corporation
9.33
-12.74
-57.73%

Accel Entertainment Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Accel Entertainment Approves Key Amendments at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 9, 2025

On June 6, 2025, Accel Entertainment held its Annual Meeting where stockholders approved several key amendments to the company’s Certificate of Incorporation. These included the Declassification Amendment, which allows for the annual election of directors, and the Exculpation Amendment, which exculpates certain company officers from personal liability for specific breaches of duty. Additionally, Kathleen Philips and Kenneth B. Rotman were elected as directors for a one-year term, and the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACEL) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Accel Entertainment stock, see the ACEL Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Accel Entertainment CFO Resignation Announced
Neutral
Apr 29, 2025

On April 29, 2025, Accel Entertainment announced the resignation of its Chief Financial Officer, Mathew Ellis, effective May 9, 2025, as he pursues other career opportunities. Mark Phelan, the company’s President of U.S. Gaming, will serve as the acting CFO while Accel searches for a permanent replacement. The transition is expected to be smooth, with Phelan’s experience and the company’s strong finance team ensuring continuity in operations. The company is focused on finding a leader who can drive growth and innovation.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Accel Entertainment Expands Board with New Director
Neutral
Apr 11, 2025

On April 10, 2025, Eden Godsoe, a Class 3 director on the Board of Directors of Accel Entertainment, announced she will not stand for reelection at the company’s 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with no disagreements cited. Concurrently, Cheryl Kondra was appointed as a Class 2 director, expanding the Board from 8 to 9 members. Mrs. Kondra will serve as Chair of the Audit Committee and a member of the Compensation Committee, receiving prorated compensation and a restricted stock unit grant for her service.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.