Accel Entertainment (ACEL)
NYSE:ACEL
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Accel Entertainment
(NYSE:ACEL)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
▲(4.17% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
ACEL scores highest on fundamentals: strong revenue growth and improved free cash flow backdrop, reinforced by a constructive earnings call highlighting record results, developing-market momentum, and ongoing buybacks. The score is held back by balance-sheet risk (historically higher leverage) and thin net margins, plus only mixed technical signals and no dividend yield despite a reasonable P/E.
Positive Factors
Sustained revenue & EBITDA growth
Accel has delivered multi‑year top‑line expansion with record quarterly revenue and matching EBITDA growth. Durable demand for distributed gaming and scale in route operations underpin recurring revenue and operating leverage, supporting sustained margin and cash generation as locations and terminals grow.
Negative Factors
Historically elevated leverage
While net leverage has improved, the company has historically relied on significant debt financing. Elevated leverage increases sensitivity to cyclical declines in gaming activity and interest‑rate moves, constraining capital flexibility and raising refinancing and covenant risk if conditions worsen.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained revenue & EBITDA growth
Accel has delivered multi‑year top‑line expansion with record quarterly revenue and matching EBITDA growth. Durable demand for distributed gaming and scale in route operations underpin recurring revenue and operating leverage, supporting sustained margin and cash generation as locations and terminals grow.
Read all positive factors
Accel Entertainment (ACEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$981.60M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)402.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.3
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth8.42%
EPS Growth22.76%
CountryUS
Employees1,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.62
Shares Outstanding81,392,900
10 Day Avg. Volume531,042
30 Day Avg. Volume402,824
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.42
Price to Book (P/B)3.60
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio15.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.00Price Target Upside25.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.41B
Accel Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Accel Entertainment, Inc., in conjunction with its subsidiary entities, functions as a leading distributed gaming operator across the United States. The company's primary activities involve the installation, upkeep, and operation of gaming termina...
How the Company Makes Money
Accel Entertainment makes money primarily through revenue share from distributed gaming. Its core model is to place and operate video gaming terminals (and related gaming equipment) in third-party locations (e.g., bars and restaurants) under agree...
Accel Entertainment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial performance: record quarterly revenue, 9% adjusted EBITDA growth, strong outperformance in developing markets (notably Nebraska and Georgia), completed TITO rollout in Illinois, accretive acquisitions/partnerships in Nevada, continued share repurchases, and a solid liquidity position (cash of $274M and undrawn $300M revolver). Key near-term challenges include flat net income/EPS (impacted by D&A and purse accrual timing), early-stage TITO adoption and mixed near-term cash effects, regulatory and legislative uncertainties (Chicago market timing and contested rules), and ongoing evaluation of Fairmont Park’s permanent plans. Overall, positive operational momentum and balance sheet flexibility outweigh the manageable execution and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Total Q1 2026 revenue increased 9% year-over-year to $352 million, marking the company’s highest-ever quarterly revenue on record.
Negative Updates
Flat Net Income and EPS
Net income was $15 million (flat YoY) and diluted EPS was $0.17, unchanged from Q1 2025, as higher operating income was offset by increased depreciation/amortization and timing of purse expense.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Total Q1 2026 revenue increased 9% year-over-year to $352 million, marking the company’s highest-ever quarterly revenue on record.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s guidance and near-term expectations emphasized disciplined capital allocation and growing free cash flow: Q1 results set a strong baseline with revenue $352M (+9% YoY), net gaming revenue $331M (+10%), adjusted EBITDA $54M (+9%), operating cash flow $43M, free cash flow $20M (38% cash conversion), and diluted EPS $0.17; the business ended the quarter with 4,540 locations and 28,353 terminals (up 3% and 4% YoY), $274M cash, $581M total debt (net debt ≈ $306M) and net leverage ≈ 1.4x, while the $300M revolver remains undrawn. Full-year CapEx is guided to $60–70M (Q1 CapEx $23M; 2025 CapEx ≈ $89M), with most spending maintenance-oriented and growth capital concentrated in developing markets; management expects free cash flow to grow as CapEx normalizes and developing markets scale. Capital return and liquidity metrics: ~1.1M shares repurchased for $12M YTD 2026 (18.7M shares / ~$195.6M repurchased since Nov 2021; ~$151.2M remaining authorization), and a new interest-rate collar (cap 4%, floor 2.92%) in place through Sep 2029. Operationally, management expects TITO benefits to build through the remainder of 2026 (early adoption ≈13%, internal upside to ~20%), sees Chicago VGTs potentially going live late 2026–2027, and highlighted strong developing-market growth (Nebraska revenue +57% / hold per day +57%; Georgia revenue +43% / hold per day +14%; Nevada locations +27% / terminals +28%; Louisiana revenue +12%), plus a $0.5M purse increase at Fairmont Park tied to live table game rollouts.Accel Entertainment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
77
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.36B | 1.33B | 1.23B | 1.17B | 969.80M | 734.71M |
| Gross Profit | 432.42M | 422.84M | 371.50M | 353.23M | 298.90M | 240.68M |
| EBITDA | 183.80M | 186.80M | 156.18M | 157.99M | 163.18M | 105.95M |
| Net Income | 51.50M | 51.47M | 35.25M | 45.60M | 74.10M | 31.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.07B | 1.13B | 1.05B | 912.89M | 862.77M | 616.07M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 274.10M | 296.57M | 281.31M | 261.61M | 256.18M | 230.85M |
| Total Debt | 593.61M | 629.35M | 595.38M | 542.57M | 542.03M | 341.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 794.90M | 852.80M | 789.09M | 714.49M | 684.18M | 457.61M |
| Stockholders Equity | 272.27M | 269.68M | 255.03M | 198.40M | 178.59M | 158.46M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 152.76M | 61.95M | 54.65M | 50.79M | 60.62M | 81.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 148.87M | 150.88M | 121.19M | 132.53M | 108.00M | 110.75M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -97.44M | -100.55M | -124.15M | -59.79M | -189.26M | -34.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -49.27M | -35.06M | 22.65M | -35.24M | 106.59M | -11.88M |
Accel Entertainment Technical Analysis
Positive
12.00
Price Trends
11.74
Positive
11.51
Positive
11.16
Positive
Market Momentum
0.07
Negative
54.89
Neutral
65.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.79, above the 50-day MA of 11.74, and above the 200-day MA of 11.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ACEL.
Accel Entertainment Risk Analysis
Accel Entertainment disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Accel Entertainment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Accel Entertainment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $981.60M | 19.33 | 19.26% | ― | 8.42% | 22.76% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $199.26M | -12.57 | 147.77% | ― | 1.31% | -123.26% | |
53 Neutral | $473.06M | -2.74 | -10.84% | ― | 9.05% | 59.31% | |
50 Neutral | $88.85M | -2.30 | -473.31% | ― | 1.53% | 3.65% | |
42 Neutral | $661.30M | -0.96 | -115.26% | ― | 16.60% | -75.69% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ACEL
Accel Entertainment
12.06
0.62
5.42%
FLL
Full House Resorts
2.45
-0.86
-25.98%
INSE
Inspired Entertainment
7.47
-0.51
-6.39%
MSC
Studio City International Holdings
2.25
-0.53
-19.24%
BALY
Bally's Corporation
13.51
3.53
35.37%
Accel Entertainment Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Accel Entertainment Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Accel Entertainment, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders elected Karl Peterson, Kathleen Phillips, Doris M. Robinson, Kenneth B. Rotman, Andrew Rubenstein, and Bruce D. Wardinski to one-year terms ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Accel Entertainment Delivers Record Q1 Revenue, Highlights Growth
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Accel Entertainment reported quarterly record revenue of $352 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, up 9% year over year, with locations and gaming terminals increasing 3% and 4%, respectively, and adjusted EBITDA ris...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Accel Entertainment posts record Q4 and 2025 results
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Accel Entertainment reported record financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighted by a 7.5% year-over-year revenue increase in the quarter to $341.4 million and full-year revenue of $...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.