Accel Entertainment (ACEL)
NYSE:ACEL
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Accel Entertainment
(NYSE:ACEL)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(2.39% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong revenue growth, improving profitability, and rising operating cash flow with improved leverage). Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend, though momentum is somewhat stretched (high RSI). Valuation is moderate based on the provided P/E, while the latest earnings call was constructive with record results and disciplined capital deployment, offset by regulatory/timing uncertainty around Chicago and ongoing Illinois optimization.
Positive Factors
Scale & recurring revenue
Accel’s large installed base (4,500+ locations, ~28,000 machines) drives predictable, recurring revenue tied to machine utilization. That scale supports route economics, fixed-cost absorption, and negotiating leverage with venues and suppliers, bolstering durable topline and cash flow.
Negative Factors
Thin net margins
Net margins compressed to mid-single digits despite scale, leaving limited internal earnings retention. Persistently thin profits reduce the company’s capacity to self-fund investments, cushion downturns, or materially expand returns absent operational improvements or favorable mix shifts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & recurring revenue
Accel’s large installed base (4,500+ locations, ~28,000 machines) drives predictable, recurring revenue tied to machine utilization. That scale supports route economics, fixed-cost absorption, and negotiating leverage with venues and suppliers, bolstering durable topline and cash flow.
Read all positive factors
Accel Entertainment (ACEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$951.96M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)402.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.8
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth7.97%
EPS Growth0.92%
CountryUS
Employees1,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding81,573,250
10 Day Avg. Volume531,042
30 Day Avg. Volume402,824
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.42
Price to Book (P/B)3.60
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio15.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.67Price Target Upside25.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.39B
Accel Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Accel Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a distributed gaming operator in the United States. It is involved in the installation, maintenance, and operation of gaming terminals; redemption devices that disburse winning...
How the Company Makes Money
Accel Entertainment makes money primarily through revenue share from distributed gaming. Its core model is to place and operate video gaming terminals (and related gaming equipment) in third-party locations (e.g., bars and restaurants) under agree...
Accel Entertainment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized record financial results (Q4 revenue +7.5%, Q4 adjusted EBITDA +19%, full-year revenue +8%, adjusted EBITDA +11%), solid liquidity, disciplined capital allocation (including share repurchases), and successful market expansions (Nevada ramp, Fairmount ramp, Louisiana integration). Key near-term risks include regulatory timing and operational constraints in Chicago, continued pruning in Illinois location counts, early-stage benefits from TITO, and industry headwinds in pari-mutuel racing. On balance, positive operating momentum and financial strength outweigh the manageable near-term uncertainties.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Total revenue for Q4 increased 7.5% year-over-year to $341.0 million — the highest fourth-quarter revenue in company history.
Negative Updates
Illinois Location Optimization Causing Net Location Declines
Illinois location counts declined as management pruned underperforming assets and redeployed machines; the company indicated ongoing optimization may continue to reduce locations in the near term (currently ~2,700 Illinois establishments).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Total revenue for Q4 increased 7.5% year-over-year to $341.0 million — the highest fourth-quarter revenue in company history.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's outlook stressed disciplined, return‑focused capital deployment and continued conversion of adjusted EBITDA into cash: Q4 revenue was $341M (+7.5% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA of $56M (+19% YoY), supporting full‑year revenue of ≈$1.3B (+8%) and adjusted EBITDA of $210M (+11%), full‑year net income $51M (EPS $0.61 basic/$0.60 diluted) and Q4 net income $16M; the company finished 2025 with ~$297M cash, net debt ≈$311M (down 1% YoY), repurchased ≈3.8M shares in 2025 (1.5M in Q4), and operates >4,500 locations with ≈28,000 machines. Key operating metrics and near‑term priorities include driving organic growth, scaling developing markets, executing accretive tuck‑in M&A (backstopped by an untapped $300M revolver), prioritizing revenue‑producing CapEx, expanding margins (TITO penetration ~81%), and pursuing market opportunities such as Chicago (city estimate ~2,500 long‑term locations) with a potential rollout nearer late Q4 2026–Q1 2027.Accel Entertainment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.33B | 1.23B | 1.17B | 969.80M | 734.71M |
| Gross Profit | 422.84M | 371.50M | 353.23M | 298.90M | 240.68M |
| EBITDA | 186.80M | 156.18M | 157.99M | 163.18M | 105.95M |
| Net Income | 51.47M | 35.25M | 45.60M | 74.10M | 31.56M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.13B | 1.05B | 912.89M | 862.77M | 616.07M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 296.57M | 281.31M | 261.61M | 256.18M | 230.85M |
| Total Debt | 629.35M | 595.38M | 542.57M | 542.03M | 341.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 852.80M | 789.09M | 714.49M | 684.18M | 457.61M |
| Stockholders Equity | 269.68M | 255.03M | 198.40M | 178.59M | 158.46M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 61.95M | 54.65M | 50.79M | 60.62M | 81.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 150.88M | 121.19M | 132.53M | 108.00M | 110.75M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -100.55M | -124.15M | -59.79M | -189.26M | -34.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -35.06M | 22.65M | -35.24M | 106.59M | -11.88M |
Accel Entertainment Technical Analysis
Positive
11.72
Price Trends
11.26
Positive
11.12
Positive
11.18
Positive
Market Momentum
0.11
Negative
59.88
Neutral
84.38
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.20, above the 50-day MA of 11.26, and above the 200-day MA of 11.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.38 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ACEL.
Accel Entertainment Risk Analysis
Accel Entertainment disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Accel Entertainment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Accel Entertainment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $951.96M | 18.85 | 18.43% | ― | 7.97% | 0.92% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $89.73M | -2.34 | -233.17% | ― | 7.45% | 5.03% | |
56 Neutral | $178.32M | -16.00 | 184.28% | ― | 4.03% | ― | |
49 Neutral | $743.39M | ― | -1.37% | 3.71% | -12.25% | -84.89% | |
47 Neutral | $530.01M | -1.43 | -116.69% | ― | 0.36% | 47.55% | |
40 Neutral | $556.33M | -2.91 | -10.84% | ― | 9.50% | 24.64% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ACEL
Accel Entertainment
11.72
0.46
4.09%
FLL
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2.49
-0.46
-15.59%
GDEN
Golden Entertainment
28.17
3.97
16.40%
INSE
Inspired Entertainment
7.01
-0.36
-4.88%
MSC
Studio City International Holdings
2.76
-0.47
-14.44%
BALY
Bally's Corporation
10.70
-4.62
-30.16%
Accel Entertainment Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Accel Entertainment posts record Q4 and 2025 results
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Accel Entertainment reported record financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighted by a 7.5% year-over-year revenue increase in the quarter to $341.4 million and full-year revenue of $...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Accel Entertainment announces CEO succession and leadership transition
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Accel Entertainment announced a planned leadership transition in which current Chief Executive Officer and President Andy Rubenstein was immediately appointed Chairman of the Board, while Mark Phelan, currently President ̵...
Business Operations and Strategy
Accel Entertainment explores Chicago distributed gaming expansion opportunity
Positive
Jan 8, 2026
On January 8, 2026, Accel Entertainment announced it is evaluating opportunities to bring its distributed gaming and local entertainment model to the city of Chicago, following the city’s consideration of allowing Video Gaming Terminals (VGT...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.