Accel Entertainment (ACEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $945.24M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 402.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: 7.97%
• EPS Growth: 0.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 83,207,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 531,042
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 402,824
• PEG Ratio: -1.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.34
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.27
• 1Y Price Target: $13.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.77
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.38B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.00 ▲(6.57% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/04/26

ACEL scores highest on financial performance (improving leverage and steady cash generation) and a constructive earnings-call profile (strong YoY revenue/EBITDA growth and liquidity enhancement). The overall score is held back by only moderate profitability/ROE, a mixed technical backdrop (sub-20DMA with sub-neutral RSI), and valuation that looks average-to-full at a 22.565 P/E with no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Strengthened balance sheet and liquidity

A $900M senior secured credit facility materially improves liquidity and reduces financing cost. This durable funding base lowers refinancing risk, supports route investments and M&A, and gives management flexibility to deploy capital for long-term growth and resilience.

Consistent operating cash generation

OCF consistently covering net income shows the business generates real cash from operations. Reliable cash conversion supports ongoing terminal placements, maintenance and selective buybacks or reinvestment without relying solely on external funding, underpinning multi-quarter stability.

Successful M&A integration and route expansion

Proven ability to integrate acquisitions and scale terminal deployments demonstrates repeatable M&A and operational execution. Effective integration expands local footprint, increases route density and creates incremental recurring revenue that supports medium-term margin improvement.

Negative Factors

Modest profitability and declining ROE

Low net margins and a falling ROE indicate constrained profitability and less efficient use of equity capital. Over months this can limit retained earnings, reduce reinvestment capacity, and pressure returns unless operational leverage or pricing mix improves.

High geographic revenue concentration

Heavy reliance on two states concentrates regulatory, economic and competitive risk. Structural changes in those jurisdictions, tax or regulatory shifts, or localized demand deterioration would materially affect company results and slow diversification benefits.

Limited free cash flow conversion

Low FCF conversion means much of net income isn't turning into discretionary cash. That constrains funding for capex, acquisitions or shareholder returns without increasing leverage, reducing strategic flexibility over a multi-quarter horizon despite ample credit capacity.

Accel Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Accel Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a distributed gaming operator in the United States. It is involved in the installation, maintenance, and operation of gaming terminals; redemption devices that disburse winnings and contain automated teller machine (ATM) functionality; and other amusement devices in authorized non-casino locations, such as restaurants, bars, taverns, convenience stores, liquor stores, truck stops, and grocery stores. The company also provides licensed establishment partners gaming solutions that appeal to players who patronize those businesses. In addition, it operates stand-alone ATMs in gaming and non-gaming locations, as well as amusement devices, including jukeboxes, dartboards, pool tables, pinball machines, and other related entertainment equipment. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 13,639 video gaming terminals across 2,584 locations in Illinois. Accel Entertainment, Inc. is headquartered in Burr Ridge, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Accel Entertainment generates revenue primarily through the operation and management of video gaming terminals (VGTs) and amusement devices. The company earns a percentage of the net gaming revenue generated from these machines, which is derived from the wagers made by players. Key revenue streams include the sharing of revenue with venue operators, where Accel provides the machines in exchange for a specified percentage of the earnings. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships with various establishments to expand its footprint, and it benefits from the growing acceptance of legalized gaming across different regions. Factors such as market expansion, regulatory developments, and customer engagement strategies also significantly contribute to its earnings.

Accel Entertainment Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid fundamentals supported by stable gross margin (~31%), consistent operating cash generation (OCF/net income 1.03), improving free cash flow growth (2.37%), and meaningfully lower leverage (debt-to-equity 0.11). The main constraint is modest profitability (net margin 3.34%) and a declining ROE (14.35%), which limits the score despite progress on the balance sheet.

Income Statement

Accel Entertainment has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.15% and a strong historical trend. Gross profit margins have remained stable around 31%, indicating efficient cost management. However, net profit margins are relatively low at 3.34%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company has significantly reduced its debt levels, with a current debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, down from previous years. This indicates improved financial stability. However, the return on equity has decreased to 14.35% from higher levels in the past, suggesting a need for more efficient use of equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been consistent, with a TTM operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.03, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow growth is positive at 2.37%, showing improvement. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.36 suggests limited free cash flow relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.31B	1.23B	1.17B	969.80M	734.71M	316.35M
Gross Profit	405.55M	371.50M	353.23M	298.90M	240.68M	105.27M
EBITDA	174.11M	156.18M	157.99M	163.18M	105.95M	39.96M
Net Income	43.67M	35.25M	45.60M	74.10M	31.56M	-410.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.09B	1.05B	912.89M	862.77M	616.07M	595.28M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	292.18M	281.31M	261.61M	256.18M	230.85M	134.45M
Total Debt	602.74M	595.38M	542.57M	542.03M	341.52M	345.81M
Total Liabilities	814.12M	789.09M	714.49M	684.18M	457.61M	467.41M
Stockholders Equity	267.12M	255.03M	198.40M	178.59M	158.46M	127.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	48.06M	54.65M	50.79M	60.62M	81.00M	-29.47M
Operating Cash Flow	133.32M	121.19M	132.53M	108.00M	110.75M	-3.71M
Investing Cash Flow	-114.62M	-124.15M	-59.79M	-189.26M	-34.54M	-61.44M
Financing Cash Flow	6.45M	22.65M	-35.24M	106.59M	-11.88M	74.19M

Accel Entertainment Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.26
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.14, below the 50-day MA of 11.29, and above the 200-day MA of 11.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ACEL.

Accel Entertainment Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INSE	69 Neutral	$219.72M	4.10	―	―	4.03%	―
ACEL	66 Neutral	$945.24M	22.49	18.43%	―	7.97%	0.92%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
GDEN	56 Neutral	$756.53M	154.79	1.15%	3.71%	-12.25%	-84.89%
FLL	51 Neutral	$81.09M	-2.01	-121.54%	―	7.45%	5.03%
BALY	43 Neutral	$699.09M	-1.80	-114.88%	―	0.36%	47.55%
MSC	40 Neutral	$615.29M	-9.57	-11.41%	―	9.50%	24.64%

Accel Entertainment Corporate Events

Accel Entertainment announces CEO succession and leadership transition

On February 2, 2026, Accel Entertainment announced a planned leadership transition in which current Chief Executive Officer and President Andy Rubenstein was immediately appointed Chairman of the Board, while Mark Phelan, currently President – US Gaming and newly named Chief Operating Officer, is scheduled to succeed Rubenstein as Chief Executive Officer and President on August 7, 2026; at the same time, Karl Peterson shifted from Board Chairman to Lead Independent Director. To support continuity, the company entered into a Leadership Transition and Advisory Services Agreement under which Rubenstein will serve as a non-employee advisor to the CEO for three years following the transition date and will continue as a director subject to ownership thresholds, with his compensation and equity awards structured to align his incentives with the company’s long-term performance. Accel also executed an amended and restated employment agreement with Phelan, effective February 2, 2026, setting out increased salary, bonus, and equity-based incentive opportunities tied to his expanded responsibilities, as well as severance, change-in-control protections, and post-employment non-compete and non-solicitation covenants, signaling a deliberate succession plan aimed at stability for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACEL) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Accel Entertainment stock, see the ACEL Stock Forecast page.

Accel Entertainment explores Chicago distributed gaming expansion opportunity

On January 8, 2026, Accel Entertainment announced it is evaluating opportunities to bring its distributed gaming and local entertainment model to the city of Chicago, following the city’s consideration of allowing Video Gaming Terminals (VGTs) in licensed locations. An analysis from the City Council Office of Financial Analysis projects that the proposed Chicago VGT framework could yield about $64 million in incremental annual tax revenue and support an estimated $1 billion in annual gross gaming revenue once fully ramped—over a period that may take up to 10 years—implying roughly $320 million in incremental net terminal income for VGT operators based on current revenue splits. Leveraging its strong balance sheet, existing infrastructure, and route management capabilities, Accel believes it is well positioned to participate in this potential market and is assessing capital deployment strategies, ramp timing, and cost structures, while monitoring regulatory developments and planning to update investors as the city’s VGT framework takes shape.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACEL) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Accel Entertainment stock, see the ACEL Stock Forecast page.