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Golden Entertainment (GDEN)
NASDAQ:GDEN
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Golden Entertainment
(NASDAQ:GDEN)
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Select Model
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(2.35% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening financial performance (revenue contraction and a shift to a small TTM net loss despite stable margins and positive free cash flow) and an unfavorable valuation (very high P/E). These negatives are partially offset by improving leverage versus earlier years and supportive technical momentum with the stock trading above key moving averages and a positive MACD.
Positive Factors
Diversified revenue streams
Multiple, structurally different revenue channels reduce single-market dependence and smooth cycles. Casino operations provide stable foot-traffic receipts, distributed gaming adds recurring placement revenue, and sports betting benefits from secular legalization trends supporting medium-term revenue resilience.
Positive free cash flow
Consistent positive free cash flow supports capital needs, debt service, and stakeholder returns. Even with a meaningful decline, FCF provides a durable buffer to fund maintenance capex, contracts, and liquidity needs, helping the business manage through cyclical softness.
Improving leverage profile
Lower relative leverage versus prior years reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk and increases balance-sheet flexibility. A more manageable debt load improves capacity to absorb revenue volatility and supports strategic moves or invest-to-grow decisions over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Revenue and EPS contraction
Steep revenue and earnings declines indicate weakening demand and deteriorating operating leverage. Sustained top-line contraction compresses margins, erodes reinvestment capacity, and raises execution risk, making returns and cash generation less predictable over the medium term.
TTM net loss
A move from multi-year profits to a trailing-twelve-month loss signals earnings instability. Losses reduce retained earnings and ROE, constrain strategic options, and increase the likelihood of tougher cost or capital decisions that could impair growth initiatives and investor confidence.
Pending asset sale and privatization
A structural deal to sell core operating assets and take the company private materially alters scale, transparency, and future cash flows for the public entity. This reduces public governance oversight and liquidity, and creates execution and integration risk that changes the business profile long term.
Golden Entertainment (GDEN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$767.89M
Dividend Yield3.71%
Average Volume (3M)262.93K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth-12.25%
EPS Growth-84.89%
CountryUS
Employees5,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.28
Shares Outstanding26,199,080
10 Day Avg. Volume168,306
30 Day Avg. Volume262,927
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.52
Price to Book (P/B)1.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.13
P/FCF Ratio20.08
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.33Price Target Upside0.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$658.76M
Golden Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGolden Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership and operation of a diversified entertainment platform in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Nevada Casino Resorts, Nevada Locals Casinos, Maryland Casino Resort, and Distributed Gaming. The Nevada Casino Resorts segment comprises of destination casino resort properties that include various food and beverage outlets, entertainment venues, and other amenities. The Nevada Locals Casinos segment consists of casino properties that cater to local customers. The Maryland Casino Resort segment operates Rocky Gap casino resort, including various food and beverage outlets, signature golf course, spa, and pool. The Distributed Gaming segment operates slot machines and amusement devices in non-casino locations, such as restaurants, bars, taverns, convenience stores, liquor stores, and grocery stores. As of February 17, 2022, the company operated approximately 16,900 slots, 120 table games, and 6,200 hotel rooms; 10 casinos; and video gaming devices at 1,100 locations, as well as owned 60 traditional taverns. The company was formerly known as Lakes Entertainment, Inc. and changed its name to Golden Entertainment, Inc. in July 2015. Golden Entertainment, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
How the Company Makes MoneyGolden Entertainment generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from its casino operations, which include slot machines, table games, and poker. The company also benefits from its distributed gaming segment, which involves operating gaming machines in non-casino locations such as bars and restaurants. Additionally, sports betting has become a significant revenue source, especially with the increasing legalization of sports wagering in various states. Key partnerships with local businesses for distributed gaming and ongoing investments in its properties enhance its earnings potential. The company also focuses on customer loyalty programs and promotional activities to drive foot traffic and enhance the gaming experience, contributing to its overall revenue.
Golden Entertainment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with strong performance in Nevada locals casinos and positive legislative impacts, but challenges on the Las Vegas Strip and in the tavern business. While the Laughlin market remains stable, the STRAT faces occupancy and revenue pressures.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Performance in Nevada Locals Casinos
Nevada locals casinos achieved their highest quarterly EBITDA in the past 2 years, growing EBITDA by over 9% and improving margins by 170 basis points to over 46%.
Tax Legislation Benefits
Recent legislation is expected to provide tax relief on tips, overtime, and additional deductions for seniors, potentially benefiting the company by $10 million to $15 million in tax shield and $2 million to $3 million in cash flow.
Stable Outlook for Laughlin
Laughlin market remains consistent with a positive outlook, supported by frequent smaller events and a strong market position.
Negative Updates
Summer Slowdown on Las Vegas Strip
The Las Vegas Strip experienced a significant slowdown, with STRAT occupancy falling to 60% in June from 76% the previous year, impacting EBITDA.
Decline in Tavern Business
Tavern business revenue declined by 7% year-over-year, affected by a challenging promotional environment and lower volume during late-night shifts.
Low Table Game Hold in Laughlin
Laughlin's table games held less than 10%, negatively impacting EBITDA by $1.5 million.
Company Guidance
During the Golden Entertainment Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and insights into its performance and future outlook. In Q2, the company reported revenue of $163.6 million and EBITDA of $38.4 million. Their Nevada locals' casinos exhibited strong performance, with quarterly EBITDA showing a 7% increase from the prior year, driven by a 9% EBITDA growth in their Las Vegas Locals Casinos, and improved margins up 170 basis points to over 46%. The Casino Resorts segment saw a revenue decline of 3% and a 5% drop in EBITDA, primarily due to a low table game hold in Laughlin. The STRAT faced a challenging environment with a 4% drop in occupancy to 69%, resulting in a 5% decrease in EBITDA, despite cost management efforts. The tavern business experienced a 7% revenue decline year-over-year. Looking ahead, the company anticipates benefits from recent legislation, including tax relief on tips and increased deductions for seniors, which are expected to positively impact their local properties in 2026. The company also expects to gain from the "Big Beautiful Bill," predicting an extra $10 to $15 million in tax shield. Golden Entertainment remains optimistic about future demand stabilization and growth, particularly in their local properties and taverns, as they continue to navigate a dynamic market landscape.Golden Entertainment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mixed fundamentals: profitability deteriorated sharply from 2023–2024 to a small TTM net loss and contracting revenue, though margins are relatively steady and cash generation remains positive. Leverage is more manageable than prior years, but returns on equity have compressed materially, increasing execution risk if softness persists.Income Statement
Profitability has deteriorated materially from the 2023 peak: net income swung from strong profits in 2023 ($255.8M) and 2024 ($50.7M) to a small loss in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (-$6.0M). Revenue has also been shrinking (2024 down vs. 2023; TTM down vs. 2024), which reduces operating leverage. A positive offset is that gross profit margin and EBITDA margin remain relatively steady (~54% gross margin; ~20% EBITDA margin in 2024 and TTM), but the collapse in operating profit versus prior years makes the earnings profile less dependable.44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage has improved versus earlier years, with debt-to-equity falling from very elevated levels in 2020–2022 to ~1.06 in 2024 and ~1.17 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), which is more manageable for the space. However, returns on equity have compressed sharply (from very strong levels in 2021–2023 to ~10.7% in 2024 and ~1.2% in TTM), reflecting weaker profitability and reducing balance-sheet flexibility. Note: TTM total assets appears unusually low versus prior years, which limits confidence in asset-based comparisons for the latest period.57
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation remains a relative strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is solid ($83.1M) and free cash flow is positive ($35.6M). That said, free cash flow declined meaningfully in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (down ~34%), and cash conversion looks less robust than earlier years (operating cash flow coverage is ~1.02x in TTM vs. stronger levels in 2021–2022). Overall, the business is still producing cash, but momentum has weakened alongside the earnings slowdown.62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 634.91M | 666.82M | 1.05B | 1.12B | 1.10B |
| Gross Profit | 250.95M | 360.93M | 453.13M | 484.57M | 496.20M |
| EBITDA | 111.81M | 135.11M | 486.41M | 249.00M | 273.99M |
| Net Income | -12.22M | 50.73M | 255.76M | 82.35M | 161.78M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.02B | 1.08B | 1.45B | 1.51B | 1.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 55.33M | 57.73M | 157.55M | 136.89M | 220.54M |
| Total Debt | 448.56M | 504.04M | 758.19M | 1.07B | 1.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 597.19M | 605.68M | 914.55M | 1.16B | 1.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 420.90M | 474.23M | 537.73M | 352.92M | 319.54M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 35.58M | 42.44M | 33.33M | 98.78M | 266.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 83.06M | 92.34M | 119.20M | 150.20M | 295.77M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -47.37M | 147.23M | 266.92M | -51.27M | -28.89M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -38.09M | -379.44M | -330.56M | -177.44M | -149.91M |
Golden Entertainment Technical Analysis
Positive
29.31
Price Trends
27.75
Positive
26.66
Positive
26.58
Positive
Market Momentum
0.43
Negative
67.58
Neutral
66.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GDEN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.37, above the 50-day MA of 27.75, and above the 200-day MA of 26.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GDEN.
Golden Entertainment Risk Analysis
Golden Entertainment disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Golden Entertainment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Golden Entertainment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $221.34M | 4.13 | ― | ― | 4.03% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $921.94M | 21.93 | 18.43% | ― | 7.97% | 0.92% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $767.89M | -120.37 | -1.35% | 3.71% | -12.25% | -84.89% | |
51 Neutral | $80.91M | -2.00 | -121.54% | ― | 7.45% | 5.03% | |
43 Neutral | $667.62M | -1.72 | -114.88% | ― | 0.36% | 47.55% | |
40 Neutral | $608.97M | -9.47 | -11.41% | ― | 9.50% | 24.64% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GDEN
Golden Entertainment
29.31
0.39
1.36%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.