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Full House Resorts (FLL)
NASDAQ:FLL
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Full House Resorts
(NASDAQ:FLL)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▼(-2.72% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/17/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (strong revenue growth, stabilized operating profitability, and better 2025 balance-sheet leverage) and a constructive earnings-call outlook led by American Place and early Chamonix progress. Offsetting factors are continued net losses/uneven free cash flow, a weak valuation signal from the negative P/E, and only mixed technicals with the stock still below its 200-day moving average.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth and stabilized operating margins
Sustained top-line acceleration and stable EBITDA margins (~13–15%) indicate the business is converting scale into recurring operating profits. Over the next 2–6 months this supports reinvestment capacity, stronger property-level cash generation, and the ability to fund initiatives without relying solely on external capital.
Improved balance-sheet leverage in 2025
A materially lower debt-to-equity ratio reduces refinancing and default risk and increases financial flexibility for capex and development. This durable improvement helps absorb near-term shocks, supports construction financing options, and lowers interest burden while management executes growth projects.
American Place operational traction and progress toward permanent build
American Place shows repeatable growth and outsized property-level EBITDA, and tangible construction progress (foundation drawings imminent) signals execution momentum. If managed, the permanent facility's scale can materially lift consolidated EBITDA and diversify revenue over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Persistent net losses at the bottom line
Despite improving operating metrics, recurring net losses constrain return on equity and limit retained-capital accumulation. Continued bottom-line deficits may force reliance on external funding for major projects or limit distributions, raising execution risk until sustained net profitability is achieved.
Volatile free cash flow and inconsistent cash generation
Historical FCF volatility undermines predictability for funding heavy capex and debt maturities. Projected heavy construction spend in 2027 and refinancing needs mean inconsistent cash generation could require pricier financing or equity issuance if operating trends slip, increasing funding execution risk.
Financing and legislative execution risk for American Place
The permanent project and bond refinancing depend on timely financing and legislative approvals. Delays or unfavorable terms would push heavy CapEx into higher-cost periods or disrupt continuity of temporary operations, materially raising execution and cash-flow risk over the construction horizon.
Full House Resorts (FLL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$92.99M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)133.51K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.04
Revenue Growth7.45%
EPS Growth5.03%
CountryUS
Employees1,685
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.34
Shares Outstanding36,121,500
10 Day Avg. Volume178,326
30 Day Avg. Volume133,509
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.68
Price to Book (P/B)0.16
Price to Sales (P/S)0.31
P/FCF Ratio9.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.00Price Target Upside55.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$325.59M
Full House Resorts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFull House Resorts, Inc. owns, develops, invests in, operates, manages, and leases casinos, and related hospitality and entertainment facilities in the United States. The company owns and operates the Silver Slipper Casino and Hotel in Hancock County, Mississippi, which has 757 slot machines and 24 table games, a surface parking lot, and a 129 hotel rooms; an on-site sportsbook, a fine-dining restaurant, a buffet, and a quick-service restaurant, as well as an oyster bar, a casino bar, and a beachfront bar; and 37-space beachfront RV park. It also owns and operates the Bronco Billy's Casino and Hotel in Cripple Creek, Colorado that has gaming space and 14 hotel rooms, as well as a steakhouse and a casual dining outlet. In addition, the company owns and operates the Rising Star Casino Resort in Rising Sun, Indiana, which has 642 slot machines and 16 table games; a land-based pavilion with approximately 31,500 square feet of meeting and convention space; a contiguous 190-guest-room hotel and an adjacent leased 104-guest-room hotel; a 56-space RV park; surface parking; an 18-hole golf course on approximately 230 acres; and four dining outlets. Further, it owns and operates the Stockman's Casino that is located in Fallon, Nevada, which has 186 slot machines, a bar, a fine-dining restaurant, and a coffee shop; and the Grand Lodge Casino that has 269 slot machines and 9 table games, which is integrated into the Hyatt Regency Lake Tahoe Resort, Spa and Casino in Incline Village, Nevada. Full House Resorts, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
How the Company Makes MoneyFull House Resorts generates revenue primarily by operating casino gaming activities at its properties. The largest driver is casino gaming win/hold from slot machines and table games (the difference between amounts wagered and amounts paid out), which is earned directly on the gaming floor under applicable gaming regulations. The company also earns non-gaming revenue from on-site hospitality and entertainment offerings, including hotel room sales (where applicable), food and beverage (restaurants, bars, banquets), and other amenities/entertainment services that support visitation and customer spend.
In addition to property-level operating revenue, Full House Resorts may earn income through arrangements related to owning or leasing/operating properties (e.g., lease-related structures or management/operating arrangements), but specific counterparties, terms, and the materiality of any such partnerships are null.
Full House Resorts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally constructive outlook: consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA improved, American Place showed strong quarter and full-year growth with meaningful upside potential for the permanent facility, Chamonix is showing early signs of operational turnaround under a new management team, and liquidity plus progress on financing and foundation drawings reduce near-term capital-execution risk. Notable challenges include seasonal weakness and earlier promotional missteps at Chamonix, minor declines at smaller properties, third-party renovation impacts at Grand Lodge, and lingering legislative and financing execution risks. On balance, operational momentum and financing progress outweigh the manageable near-term headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue Growth (Q4 2025)
Q4 revenues rose to $75.4M from $73.0M a year ago; on an apples-to-apples basis (excluding $1.5M from divested Stockman's), revenue growth was 5.6% year-over-year.
Adjusted EBITDA Improvement (Q4 2025)
Adjusted EBITDA increased to $10.7M in Q4 2025 from $10.4M in Q4 2024. After backing out prior-year one-time items (~$1.7M), the comparable increase was about 23%.
American Place Strong Operational Traction
Temporary American Place Q4 revenues increased 11% to $32.0M and adjusted property EBITDA rose 29% to $8.7M. Full-year American Place revenue/adjusted property EBITDA were $124M and $34.3M, up 13% and 17%, respectively. Management reiterates run-rate EBITDA targets of ~$50M for the temporary facility and ~ $100M for the permanent facility.
Chamonix Turnaround Progress under New Management
A fully formed management team was in place in 2H 2025. Comparing 2H 2025 vs 2H 2024, revenues increased by ~$1.2M (~5%) and adjusted property EBITDA grew by ~$4.2M. Q4 2025 saw a much smaller seasonal adjusted property EBITDA loss versus Q4 2024.
Database and Loyalty Momentum (Early 2026)
Top customer segment (Jan–Feb 2026) unique guests increased ~20% and total visits +36%; second segment unique guests +12% and total visits +24%, indicating improving repeat visitation and loyalty.
Waukegan (American Place market) Continued Growth
Waukegan marked roughly its 3-year anniversary and continued to grow double-digits in Q4 (11% reported), with a database approaching 121k–125k names and steady new-member acquisition.
Balance Sheet Liquidity and Revolver Extension
Liquidity of approximately $51M at quarter end (including undrawn revolver). The company amended its revolver to extend the maturity to August 15, 2027, and stated Illinois operations cover current interest expense.
Progress Toward Permanent American Place Financing and Construction
Architects are finalizing foundation drawings enabling imminent foundation work. Management has received multiple financing proposals (including those that may fully fund construction without issuing equity) and expects more detail in the coming weeks; legislative bill to extend temporary operations by ~18 months is expected to pass in April/May.
Sports Wagering Cash Flow Contribution
Sportsbook arrangements (notably with Circa in Illinois) are a meaningful, high-margin contributor. Management cited an ongoing EBITDA contribution in the ~$5.9M–$7M range (roughly $5.9M assuming minimums).
Negative Updates
Chamonix Seasonal Weakness and Earlier Promotional Missteps
Q4 2025 experienced a small adjusted property EBITDA loss in the seasonally weaker winter period. Management acknowledged that FY2024 results were artificially inflated by non-economical marketing and an expensive grand-opening event, requiring operational reset and staff changes in 2025.
Construction Disruption at Chamonix/Bronco Billy's
January–February 2026 carpet and ceiling replacement caused modest disruption; incremental spend was low six figures but created some short-term operational impact on Q1 performance.
Smaller Properties Underperformance
Silver Slipper and Rising Star revenues declined slightly in the quarter. Silver Slipper EBITDA margin trended below potential (off low double-digits vs. an expected high-teens target); management has instituted multiple leadership changes to drive improvement.
Grand Lodge Disruption from Third-Party Renovation
Grand Lodge continues to be adversely affected by Hyatt Lake Tahoe renovation disruption; amenities renovation completion is not expected until 2027, pressuring near-term results at that property.
Rising Sun / Relocation and Legislative Uncertainty
The Indiana relocation bill evolved during the session and outcome is uncertain. Multiple county referendums and well-funded opposition make relocation results unpredictable; Rising Sun currently remains modestly profitable but future opportunities are unclear.
Financing and Execution Risks
Permanent American Place financing is progressing but not finalized; existing bonds mature in early 2028 and require refinancing. Management indicated acceptable (not rock-bottom) financing costs and expects a deal, but timing and terms remain execution risks.
Sportsbook Contract Risk
While sportsbook fees are a strong contributor (notably via Circa), management acknowledged contractual risk (e.g., a partner could exit), so the contribution is not risk-free.
Company Guidance
Management provided detailed operational and financial guidance: Q4 FY2025 revenue was $75.4M (vs. $73.0M a year ago; apples‑to‑apples growth 5.6%) and adjusted EBITDA $10.7M (vs. $10.4M; ~23% higher after backing out $1.7M of prior‑year items); American Place Q4 revenue was $32M (+11%) with adjusted property EBITDA $8.7M (+29%), and full‑year American Place revenue and adjusted property EBITDA were $124M and $34.3M (+13% and +17% YoY); management believes the temporary American Place can reach ~ $50M run‑rate EBITDA and the permanent facility ~ $100M; liquidity was about $51M at quarter end and the revolver maturity was extended to Aug 15, 2027; the temporary casino is authorized through Aug 2027 with an 18‑month legislative extension pending (vote expected Apr/May); foundation drawings for the permanent casino are imminent, foundation work to start in coming weeks with a total build of ~18–24 months and most heavy CapEx expected in 2027, and financing proposals (including non‑equity options) are under evaluation to refinance bonds that mature Feb 2028 (become current Feb 2027); early‑2026 marketing traction: top database segment unique guests +~20% and visits +36% (segment 2 unique guests +12%, visits +24%); Chamonix H2 2025 vs H2 2024: revenue +$1.2M (~5%) and adjusted property EBITDA +$4.2M (Q4 Chamonix loss narrowed vs prior year); sportsbook EBITDA run‑rate roughly $6–7M (minimums ~ $5.9M); other notes: Silver Slipper/Rising Star modest declines and Waukegan database ~121k–125k names.Full House Resorts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong and accelerating revenue growth with stabilized positive EBIT/steady EBITDA margins, plus improved 2025 leverage. Offsetting this, the company remains consistently net-loss making and free cash flow has been volatile despite turning positive in 2025.Income Statement
Revenue growth is strong and accelerating (up ~82% in 2025 vs ~21% in 2024), and operating profitability has stabilized with positive EBIT and steady EBITDA margins (~13–15% over the last three years). However, the company remains consistently unprofitable at the bottom line (net losses in 2022–2025) and overall profitability is well below the stronger 2021 performance, signaling ongoing cost/interest/other burden that is preventing revenue gains from translating into earnings.52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks meaningfully improved in 2025, with low debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.10) and a sizable equity base, which reduces balance-sheet risk versus prior years. The key weakness is that returns on equity are negative due to continued net losses, and leverage was extremely high as recently as 2024 (debt-to-equity ~13), indicating the capital structure has been volatile and still hinges on restoring consistent profitability.64
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is positive across all periods shown, supporting ongoing operations, and 2025 free cash flow turned positive (~$10M). That said, free cash flow has been highly volatile and often deeply negative (notably 2022–2024), and 2025 saw a sharp drop in free cash flow growth. Overall cash generation quality is improving, but consistency remains a concern.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 302.38M | 292.06M | 241.06M | 163.28M | 180.16M |
| Gross Profit | 113.50M | 149.90M | 131.42M | 89.92M | 105.43M |
| EBITDA | 46.40M | 42.63M | 31.26M | 20.66M | 45.45M |
| Net Income | -40.20M | -40.67M | -24.90M | -14.80M | 11.71M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 642.40M | 673.33M | 688.46M | 595.33M | 473.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 40.67M | 40.22M | 36.16M | 56.59M | 88.72M |
| Total Debt | 57.65M | 527.67M | 514.84M | 424.06M | 321.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 68.20M | 632.84M | 610.61M | 495.54M | 361.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 574.20M | 40.50M | 77.85M | 99.79M | 112.72M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.97M | -38.74M | -126.24M | -166.56M | -7.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.97M | 13.85M | 22.34M | 4.38M | 29.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.32M | -45.67M | -198.76M | -172.11M | -37.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 801.00K | -1.50M | 59.03M | 93.62M | 235.31M |
Full House Resorts Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.57
Price Trends
2.43
Positive
2.54
Positive
3.09
Negative
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
55.21
Neutral
64.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.43, above the 50-day MA of 2.43, and below the 200-day MA of 3.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FLL.
Full House Resorts Risk Analysis
Full House Resorts disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Full House Resorts reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Full House Resorts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $80.49M | -147.52 | -0.63% | 1.85% | -4.85% | -129.08% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $92.99M | -2.34 | -25.10% | ― | 7.45% | 5.03% | |
56 Neutral | $730.19M | -118.26 | -1.37% | 3.71% | -12.25% | -84.89% | |
53 Neutral | $188.33M | -16.00 | 184.28% | ― | 4.03% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $46.83M | 25.19 | 12.75% | ― | 3.80% | 59.04% | |
47 Neutral | $39.16M | -0.65 | 155.17% | ― | -1.57% | -80.41% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
FLL
Full House Resorts
2.57
-1.58
-38.07%
CPHC
Canterbury Park Holding
15.71
-3.08
-16.39%
CNTY
Century Casinos
1.33
-0.55
-29.26%
GDEN
Golden Entertainment
27.66
0.50
1.83%
INSE
Inspired Entertainment
6.96
-2.22
-24.18%
ROLR
High Roller Technologies, Inc.
4.30
1.28
42.38%
Full House Resorts Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Full House Resorts Extends Credit Facility, Advances American Place
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
Full House Resorts, Inc. is a U.S. casino and hotel operator with properties across the Midwest, South and West, including American Place in Illinois, Silver Slipper in Mississippi, Rising Star in Indiana, Grand Lodge in Nevada, and the integrated Chamonix and Bronco Billy’s in Colorado. It also earns fees from contracted sports wagering skins in Colorado, Indiana and Illinois, focusing strategically on underserved regional gaming markets and balancing temporary and permanent casino facilities.
Reporting on March 5, 2026, the company said fourth-quarter 2025 revenue increased 3.4% to $75.4 million and full-year 2025 revenue rose 3.5% to $302.4 million, with growth at American Place and improving Colorado results offsetting the April 2025 sale of Stockman’s Casino and renovation-related softness at Grand Lodge, while net loss narrowed slightly to $40.2 million and Adjusted EBITDA held near $48 million. Management emphasized accelerating profitability at the temporary American Place, operational improvements at Chamonix/Bronco Billy’s and ongoing development of the permanent American Place resort, which is expected to begin foundation construction in March or April 2026 and open in roughly 18 to 24 months, backed by a recently extended revolving credit facility and a proposed Illinois bill to keep the temporary casino operating long enough to ensure continuity of jobs and tax revenue.
The most recent analyst rating on (FLL) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Full House Resorts stock, see the FLL Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.