Asbury Automotive (ABG)
NYSE:ABG
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Asbury
(NYSE:ABG)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$189.00
▼(-10.61% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/07/26
ABG scores as a balanced setup: strong cash flow and a very low P/E provide support, but the primary constraints are late-cycle pressure (falling TTM revenue and thinner margins) and a technically weak downtrend. The earnings call adds moderate confidence longer-term (Tekion efficiency upside), while acknowledging meaningful near-term disruption and demand headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow and liquidity
Consistently strong free cash flow and a $1.2B liquidity cushion provide durable financial flexibility. This supports debt paydown, disciplined buybacks, and required CapEx without immediate reliance on equity markets, improving resilience through cyclical auto retail swings.
Negative Factors
TTM revenue pullback and margin compression
A sustained ~20% TTM revenue decline and lower gross/net margins materially reduce operating leverage and profitability. If demand and pricing remain soft, lower margins could persist, constraining cash available for investment and making recovery of ROE and EBITDA margins slower.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow and liquidity
Consistently strong free cash flow and a $1.2B liquidity cushion provide durable financial flexibility. This supports debt paydown, disciplined buybacks, and required CapEx without immediate reliance on equity markets, improving resilience through cyclical auto retail swings.
Read all positive factors
Asbury (ABG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.50B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)314.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.9
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth4.83%
EPS Growth33.96%
CountryUS
Employees15,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Dealerships
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)28.28
Shares Outstanding18,618,800
10 Day Avg. Volume285,643
30 Day Avg. Volume314,554
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.54
Price to Book (P/B)1.16
Price to Sales (P/S)0.25
P/FCF Ratio7.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$229.43Price Target Upside8.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)25.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.21B
Asbury Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an automotive retailer in the United States. It offers a range of automotive products and services, including new and used vehicles; and vehicle repair and maintenance serv...
How the Company Makes Money
Asbury makes money primarily through a mix of vehicle retailing, aftersales service, and finance-related income generated at its dealerships. (1) New-vehicle sales: The company earns revenue from selling new vehicles from OEM brands it represents;...
Asbury Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced meaningful strategic and operational positives — notably the Tekion migration progress with early productivity wins, portfolio optimization with divestitures and buybacks, resilient per-unit profitability (GPUs) and solid cash generation — against tangible near-term headwinds including volume declines, severe weather effects, and transition-related disruption and costs tied to Tekion. Management expects the Tekion benefits to outweigh short-term friction once the rollout is complete, but acknowledged peak disruption will persist into mid‑to‑late year. Given the mix of material strategic positives and clear near-term operational challenges, the tone is constructive but cautious.Positive Updates
Tekion Migration Progress and Early Productivity Gains
Over 50% of stores migrated to Tekion with full conversion expected by fall; early results show meaningful productivity improvements (Koons example: gross dollars per technician +21% year-over-year; average productivity per service advisor +16% year-over-year) and reduced support cost in converted stores (-5%). Management expects material cost and efficiency benefits once rollout is complete.
Negative Updates
Volume Declines and Softer Demand
Same-store new vehicle revenue down 9% year-over-year and management noted being 'back about 4,300 units' on new vehicles on a same-store basis. Management flagged overall moderation in consumer demand following last year's pull-forward and cited uncertainty from macro/geopolitical factors.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Tekion Migration Progress and Early Productivity Gains
Over 50% of stores migrated to Tekion with full conversion expected by fall; early results show meaningful productivity improvements (Koons example: gross dollars per technician +21% year-over-year; average productivity per service advisor +16% year-over-year) and reduced support cost in converted stores (-5%). Management expects material cost and efficiency benefits once rollout is complete.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call emphasized completing the Tekion DMS conversion by this fall (with per‑store disruption lasting about 4–6 months and transition headwinds peaking late Q2 into Q3) and beginning to “fully realize” the platform’s cost and efficiency benefits thereafter—management expects fixed‑operations gross profit to grow at mid‑single‑digit rates over time, adjusted same‑store SG&A to normalize in the mid‑60s of gross profit (March showed low‑60s), and a full‑year effective tax rate of about 25%; capital plans include roughly $250 million of CapEx in 2026 and $250 million in 2027, liquidity of $1.2 billion and a Q1 transaction‑adjusted net leverage of 3.2x, with the company balancing debt reduction and opportunistic buybacks (678,000 shares repurchased for $147 million) financed in part by divesting 10 dealerships and a collision center that represented roughly $600–625 million of annualized revenue; Q1 reported metrics to benchmark progress included $4.1 billion revenue, $727 million gross profit (17.7% margin, +22 bps), $207 million adjusted EBITDA, $102 million adjusted net income, adjusted EPS $5.37 ($5.63 excluding a $0.26 non‑cash TCA deferral), a $19 million weather gross‑profit headwind (≈$0.56 EPS), $166 million adjusted operating cash flow and $120 million adjusted free cash flow.Asbury Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 17.96B | 18.00B | 17.19B | 14.80B | 15.43B | 9.84B |
| Gross Profit | 3.07B | 3.07B | 2.95B | 2.76B | 3.10B | 1.90B |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 1.02B | 919.30M | 1.03B | 1.55B | 841.70M |
| Net Income | 547.70M | 492.00M | 430.30M | 602.50M | 997.30M | 532.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.30B | 11.77B | 10.34B | 10.16B | 8.02B | 8.00B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 27.50M | 40.90M | 83.80M | 51.90M | 240.70M | 189.90M |
| Total Debt | 5.43B | 6.33B | 5.28B | 5.48B | 3.69B | 4.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.37B | 7.88B | 6.83B | 6.92B | 5.12B | 5.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.93B | 3.89B | 3.50B | 3.24B | 2.90B | 2.12B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 601.60M | 576.60M | 363.00M | 170.70M | 588.10M | 1.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 774.90M | 781.90M | 671.20M | 313.00M | 696.00M | 1.16B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.14B | -1.46B | -137.20M | -1.68B | 464.70M | -3.92B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 270.10M | 646.30M | -510.30M | 1.18B | -1.10B | 2.93B |
Asbury Technical Analysis
Negative
211.44
Price Trends
196.17
Negative
213.04
Negative
226.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.00
Positive
43.22
Neutral
46.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 211.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 193.25, above the 50-day MA of 196.17, and below the 200-day MA of 226.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ABG.
Asbury Risk Analysis
Asbury disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Asbury reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Asbury Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $10.83B | 10.49 | 16.41% | 3.14% | 1.24% | -5.59% | |
66 Neutral | $6.31B | 14.55 | 10.61% | 0.64% | 2.37% | -10.19% | |
63 Neutral | $3.50B | 4.94 | 14.15% | ― | 4.83% | 33.96% | |
63 Neutral | $6.36B | 8.25 | 28.44% | ― | 1.94% | 9.88% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $2.47B | 9.47 | 10.50% | 2.27% | 4.82% | -55.13% | |
59 Neutral | $3.88B | 7.62 | 11.04% | 0.49% | 7.17% | -26.51% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ABG
Asbury
187.72
-37.47
-16.64%
AN
AutoNation
189.98
7.77
4.26%
GPI
Group 1 Automotive
326.18
-97.55
-23.02%
LAD
Lithia Motors
276.58
-32.45
-10.50%
PAG
Penske Automotive Group
164.73
7.73
4.92%
SAH
Sonic Automotive
78.16
12.44
18.94%
Asbury Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Asbury Shareholders Back Board, Governance Changes at Meeting
Positive
May 6, 2026
At Asbury’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 4, 2026, shareholders elected all eleven director nominees to serve until the next annual meeting and approved an advisory resolution on the compensation of the company’s name...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.