Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM)
NYSE:YMM
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Full Truck Alliance
(NYSE:YMM)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(46.52% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:01/08/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins and a low-debt balance sheet) and a constructive earnings update showing solid order/user growth and continued revenue growth guidance. These positives are tempered by weak technical signals (below key moving averages and negative MACD) and some earnings-call risks around brokerage revenue declines and cost pressures.
Positive Factors
Platform scale and engagement
Sustained double‑digit growth in orders and active users strengthens network effects and matching efficiency. Larger shipper and trucker bases lower marginal matching costs and improve service reliability, supporting durable transaction volume growth and long‑term monetization potential.
Negative Factors
Declining freight brokerage revenue
A meaningful drop in freight brokerage revenue highlights risks to the core monetized segment. If persistent, this trend could reduce revenue mix quality and limit leverage from transaction growth, signaling competitive or structural shifts that could pressure long‑term monetization per order.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Platform scale and engagement
Sustained double‑digit growth in orders and active users strengthens network effects and matching efficiency. Larger shipper and trucker bases lower marginal matching costs and improve service reliability, supporting durable transaction volume growth and long‑term monetization potential.
Read all positive factors
Full Truck Alliance (YMM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.72B
Dividend Yield0.73%
Average Volume (3M)7.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.2
Beta (1Y)1.16
Revenue Growth19.01%
EPS Growth28.26%
CountryUS
Employees7,185
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.14
Shares Outstanding939,300,900
10 Day Avg. Volume4,660,350
30 Day Avg. Volume7,052,625
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.56
Price to Book (P/B)2.18
Price to Sales (P/S)7.32
P/FCF Ratio28.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.39
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.70Price Target Upside42.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.65B
Full Truck Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Full Truck Alliance generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company earns money by charging transaction fees for each match made between shippers and truck drivers on its platform. Additionally, it offers premium subscription...
Full Truck Alliance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive tone: the company reported strong full-year revenue and profitability growth, meaningful improvement in monetization (transaction service revenue growth, higher commission penetration and monetization per order), record fulfillment rates, successful ecosystem governance to improve long-term platform quality, advancing AI deployments from pilot to commercial usage, and a clear shareholder return program. Lowlights were mainly transitional: a temporary slowdown in order growth driven by intentional governance actions, short-term pressure in the credit business due to regulatory-aligned rate reductions and some asset-quality volatility, and multi-year investments (AI, autonomous driving, overseas expansion) that will take time to monetize. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights, supporting a positive outlook while acknowledging near-term execution and regulatory headwinds.Positive Updates
Order Growth and Scale Expansion
Total fulfilled orders reached 63.9 million in Q4 (YoY +12.3%) and 236 million for the full year (YoY +19.8%). Full-year cold chain orders grew nearly 30% YoY, indicating strong category expansion.
Negative Updates
Temporary Slowdown in Order Growth
Order growth moderated in Q4 (despite YoY +12.3%) mainly due to large-scale ecosystem governance removing low-quality and misclassified orders; some orders temporarily shifted offline or to other product categories, causing near-term volume headwinds.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Order Growth and Scale Expansion
Total fulfilled orders reached 63.9 million in Q4 (YoY +12.3%) and 236 million for the full year (YoY +19.8%). Full-year cold chain orders grew nearly 30% YoY, indicating strong category expansion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 will focus on high‑quality growth, full AI integration and steady ecosystem optimization while returning about USD 400 million to shareholders (including a Q1 dividend of ~USD 87.5M); operationally they expect order recovery and continued improvement in monetization after 2025 results of 63.9M fulfilled orders in Q4 (+12.3% YoY) and 236M for the year (+19.8%), net revenues of RMB 12.49B (+11.1% YoY), transaction service revenues RMB 5.32B (+38.2% YoY) and Q4 transaction service revenue ~RMB 1.49B (+~28% YoY), net income RMB 4.46B (+42.8% YoY) and non‑GAAP adjusted net income RMB 4.79B (+19.3% YoY); key operating metrics to be strengthened include Q4 fulfillment rate 42.7% (+>5pp YoY; mid/low‑frequency direct shippers ~65%), average monetization per order ~RMB 26.3, average monthly active shippers 3.28M in Q4 (3.14M FY; +11.6% Q4 / +18.6% FY), commission penetration 88.6% (+~6pp YoY) across 273 cities, next‑month retention for responding truckers >85%, rolling 12‑month active trucker base at a high level, credit 90‑day delinquency 2.9% with loans transitioned to ≤26% interest and a shift to more asset‑light, bank‑partnered credit models.Full Truck Alliance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.14B | 11.24B | 8.44B | 6.73B | 4.66B | 2.58B |
| Gross Profit | 8.66B | 9.73B | 7.20B | 3.22B | 2.12B | 1.26B |
| EBITDA | 3.98B | 2.55B | 2.41B | -74.14M | -3.57B | -3.38B |
| Net Income | 4.18B | 3.07B | 2.21B | 406.76M | -3.65B | -3.47B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 42.60B | 41.29B | 39.35B | 36.70B | 34.40B | 25.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.74B | 20.81B | 18.29B | 26.22B | 25.92B | 18.79B |
| Total Debt | 52.15M | 65.13M | 84.47M | 80.52M | 9.00M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 2.79B | 3.15B | 3.45B | 2.89B | 2.87B | 2.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.22B | 37.68B | 35.60B | 33.66B | 31.46B | 23.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.90B | 2.17B | -101.21M | -254.64M | 521.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.97B | 2.27B | -15.52M | -211.42M | 574.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -2.42B | 553.74M | 2.13B | -14.40B | -2.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.52B | -1.17B | -1.33B | 8.90B | 8.32B |
Full Truck Alliance Technical Analysis
Negative
8.19
Price Trends
9.15
Negative
10.09
Negative
11.25
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.29
Negative
35.79
Neutral
45.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YMM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.44, below the 50-day MA of 9.15, and below the 200-day MA of 11.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for YMM.
Full Truck Alliance Risk Analysis
Full Truck Alliance disclosed 96 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Full Truck Alliance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
The Group incurred in the past, and may incur in the future, net losses. Q4, 2023
2.
The Group's collection and recovery efforts may become less effective and may also subject it to regulatory risks and reputational risks. Q4, 2023
Full Truck Alliance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $8.72B | 18.23 | 11.21% | 0.73% | 19.01% | 28.26% | |
69 Neutral | $3.84B | -143.66 | -4.43% | ― | 35.87% | 85.20% | |
64 Neutral | $5.36B | 2.80 | 209.99% | ― | 14.90% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $14.88B | 76.19 | 4.10% | ― | 20.22% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $4.58B | -21.74 | -13.37% | ― | 24.26% | 55.58% | |
59 Neutral | $328.62M | -15.25 | -22.88% | ― | 13.09% | 32.34% |
* Technology Sector Average
YMM
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8.34
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-19.36%
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Full Truck Alliance Corporate Events
Full Truck Alliance Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results with Revenue Growth
Nov 17, 2025
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. announced its unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showing a 10.8% increase in total net revenues to RMB3,358.2 million compared to the same period in 2024. Despite a decline in net income, the co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.