Full Truck Alliance (YMM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.04B
• Dividend Yield: 0.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 28.87%
• EPS Growth: 57.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,185
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 92
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 939,300,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,991,905
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,398,205
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $14.67
• Price Target Upside: 24.01% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $13.00 ▲(9.89%Upside)

Full Truck Alliance's stock score is primarily driven by strong earnings results and financial performance, underpinned by growth in user engagement and technological advancements. However, the technical analysis reveals a bearish trend, and high valuation metrics suggest potential overvaluation.

Positive Factors

Earnings

YMM is expected to deliver a strong result in its upcoming report.

Valuation

The recent share price correction provides a good entry point for investors, considering YMM’s stronger earnings growth and higher visibility.

Negative Factors

Credit Solution Business

Concerns arise from the annualized interest rate charged by YMM in excess of 24% per annum in its credit solution business.

Order Mix

Commission revenues growth might be not as fast as previously expected given order mix shifting toward LTL orders, for which average ticket size is lower.

Strategic Investments

YMM plans to step up some strategic investments, likely dragging margin a bit.

Full Truck Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China. The company offers freight listing, matching, and brokerage services; and online transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, electronic toll collection, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.

How the Company Makes Money

Full Truck Alliance generates revenue primarily through service fees and commission charges. The company earns money by taking a percentage of the transaction value each time a shipper successfully books a trucking service through its platform. Additionally, Full Truck Alliance offers value-added services such as freight insurance, transaction facilitation, and membership subscriptions, which contribute to its revenue streams. The platform also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions and technology firms to provide integrated services, enhancing its market position and revenue potential.

Full Truck Alliance Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Full Truck Alliance shows strong financial performance with impressive revenue and profit margins. The balance sheet is robust with low debt and high equity, but the lack of recent cash flow data limits a full assessment.

Income Statement

Full Truck Alliance has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The Gross Profit Margin is impressive at 86.6%, and the company has improved its Net Profit Margin to 27.3% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, indicating improved operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a robust equity position with an Equity Ratio of 91.2%, suggesting financial stability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.002, indicating minimal reliance on debt. Return on Equity is strong at 8.1%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits.

Cash Flow

While the Free Cash Flow was positive in previous years, the lack of available cash flow data for 2024 prevents a full assessment. Historically, the company has shown a good Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio, but recent data is absent.

Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Full Truck Alliance Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.83
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YMM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.22, below the 50-day MA of 12.08, and above the 200-day MA of 11.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for YMM.

Full Truck Alliance Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BILL	74 Outperform	$4.75B	482.28	0.97%	―	14.52%	―
YMM	73 Outperform	$12.04B	23.14	10.30%	0.81%	28.87%	57.72%
LYFT	72 Outperform	$5.96B	104.27	8.56%	―	27.32%	―
Sector *	69 Neutral	¥230.42B	14.66	7.50%	2.60%	9.31%	5.75%
GRAB	68 Neutral	$21.51B	948.21	0.38%	―	17.24%	―
KC	59 Neutral	$4.27B	―	-33.09%	―	13.85%	3.47%
INTA	50 Neutral	$3.33B	―	-4.16%	―	17.70%	61.98%