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Full Truck Alliance (YMM)
NYSE:YMM
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Full Truck Alliance
(NYSE:YMM)
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(14.31%Upside)
Positive Factors
Business strategy
Refined adjustments significantly enhanced engagement of shippers and truckers, potentially driving faster order volume growth ahead.
Financial performance
YMM delivered solid results with decent order volume growth and earnings beat.
Negative Factors
Profit margins
YMM plans to step up some strategic investments, likely dragging margin a bit.
Revenue growth
Commission revenues growth might be not as fast as previously expected given order mix shifting toward LTL orders, for which average ticket size is lower.
Full Truck Alliance (YMM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.35B
Dividend Yield0.81%
Average Volume (3M)6.07M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.7
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth28.87%
EPS Growth57.72%
CountryUS
Employees7,185
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding939,300,900
10 Day Avg. Volume4,513,296
30 Day Avg. Volume6,071,265
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.12
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.00Price Target Upside10.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
Full Truck Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China. The company offers freight listing, matching, and brokerage services; and online transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, electronic toll collection, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.
How the Company Makes MoneyFull Truck Alliance generates revenue primarily through service fees and commission charges. The company earns money by taking a percentage of the transaction value each time a shipper successfully books a trucking service through its platform. Additionally, Full Truck Alliance offers value-added services such as freight insurance, transaction facilitation, and membership subscriptions, which contribute to its revenue streams. The platform also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions and technology firms to provide integrated services, enhancing its market position and revenue potential.
Full Truck Alliance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 21, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -2.32%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance with significant growth in orders and revenue, boosted by user engagement and strategic technological advancements. Despite some flat revenues in freight brokerage and impacts from VAT adjustments, the overall results indicate a positive trajectory.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Order Growth
Total field orders grew 23% year-over-year, significantly outpacing the industry growth. Fulfilled orders rose 22.6% year-over-year to 48.2 million.
Increased User Engagement
Average shipper MAUs reached 2.76 million, up 28.8% year-over-year. Total shipper members exceeded 1.1 million, with a 12-month rolling retention rate above 80%.
Record Trucker Engagement
Trucker membership reached an all-time high, with next month retention for truckers responding to orders consistently above 85%.
Revenue Growth
Total net revenues reached RMB2.7 billion, up 19% year-over-year. Revenue from transaction service rose 51.5% year-over-year to RMB1.05 billion.
Significant Financial Performance
Non-GAAP adjusted operating income surged by 171.5% year-over-year to RMB1.32 billion, and non-GAAP adjusted net income increased by 84% year-over-year to RMB1.39 billion.
AI and Technological Advancements
DeepSeek and intelligent robotics initiated a new wave of technological advancements, with plans for deeper investment in AI and autonomous driving.
Negative Updates
Flat Revenues in Freight Brokerage
Revenues from freight brokerage service in the first quarter were RMB965.7 million, remaining nearly flat due to a decrease in transaction volume.
Impact of VAT Rebate Adjustments
Revenues from freight brokerage service were affected by a decrease in transaction volume as the company proactively downsized operations in anticipation of possible VAT rebate adjustments.
Company Guidance
During Full Truck Alliance's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a 23% year-over-year growth in total field orders, with average shipper MAUs increasing by 28.8% to 2.76 million. They achieved a fulfillment rate of 39.2%, a 6 percentage point rise from the previous year. Total net revenues were RMB2.7 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with transaction service revenue increasing by 51.5% to RMB1.05 billion. Non-GAAP adjusted operating income surged 171.5% to RMB1.32 billion, and non-GAAP adjusted net income rose by 84% to RMB1.39 billion. Additionally, the company provided guidance for the second quarter of 2025, expecting total net revenues to be between RMB3.06 billion and RMB3.12 billion, representing a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 10.6% to 12.9%.Full Truck Alliance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Full Truck Alliance shows strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and robust profitability margins. The balance sheet is stable with low debt levels and strong equity. However, the absence of recent cash flow data limits a comprehensive analysis in this area.Income Statement
Full Truck Alliance has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The Gross Profit Margin is impressive at 86.6%, and the company has improved its Net Profit Margin to 27.3% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, indicating improved operational efficiency.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a robust equity position with an Equity Ratio of 91.2%, suggesting financial stability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.002, indicating minimal reliance on debt. Return on Equity is strong at 8.1%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits.88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
While the Free Cash Flow was positive in previous years, the lack of available cash flow data for 2024 prevents a full assessment. Historically, the company has shown a good Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio, but recent data is absent.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.67B | 11.24B | 8.44B | 6.73B | 4.66B | 2.58B |
| Gross Profit | 8.11B | 9.73B | 7.20B | 3.22B | 2.12B | 1.26B |
| EBITDA | 3.38B | 2.55B | 2.41B | -74.14M | -3.73B | -3.38B |
| Net Income | 3.76B | 3.07B | 2.21B | 406.76M | -3.65B | -3.47B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 42.42B | 41.29B | 39.35B | 36.70B | 34.40B | 25.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.16B | 20.81B | 18.29B | 26.22B | 25.92B | 18.79B |
| Total Debt | 56.62M | 65.13M | 84.47M | 80.52M | 9.00M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 3.70B | 3.15B | 3.45B | 2.89B | 2.87B | 2.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 38.25B | 37.68B | 35.60B | 33.66B | 31.46B | 23.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.90B | 2.17B | -101.21M | -254.64M | 521.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.97B | 2.27B | -15.52M | -211.42M | 574.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -2.42B | 553.74M | 2.13B | -14.40B | -2.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.52B | -1.17B | -1.33B | 8.90B | 8.32B |
Full Truck Alliance Technical Analysis
Negative
11.81
Price Trends
11.81
Negative
11.96
Negative
10.84
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
47.90
Neutral
23.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YMM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.03, below the 50-day MA of 11.81, and above the 200-day MA of 10.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for YMM.
Full Truck Alliance Risk Analysis
Full Truck Alliance disclosed 96 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Full Truck Alliance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
The Group incurred in the past, and may incur in the future, net losses. Q4, 2023
2.
The Group's collection and recovery efforts may become less effective and may also subject it to regulatory risks and reputational risks. Q4, 2023
Full Truck Alliance Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $12.35B | 23.75 | 10.30% | 0.81% | 28.87% | 57.72% | |
71 Outperform | $6.61B | 115.76 | 8.56% | ― | 27.32% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $4.14B | ― | -4.16% | ― | 17.70% | 61.98% | |
64 Neutral | $20.05B | 878.57 | 0.38% | ― | 17.24% | ― | |
63 Neutral | €10.00B | 18.72 | 6.74% | 1.80% | 2.60% | -31.99% | |
63 Neutral | $4.69B | 482.28 | 0.97% | ― | 14.52% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $3.63B | ― | -33.09% | ― | 13.85% | 3.47% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
YMM
Full Truck Alliance
11.81
4.02
51.60%
LYFT
Lyft
15.76
1.79
12.81%
BILL
Bill.com Holdings
46.26
-6.55
-12.40%
KC
Kingsoft Cloud Holdings
12.52
10.04
404.84%
GRAB
Grab
5.03
1.50
42.49%
INTA
Intapp
51.62
15.12
41.42%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.