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Full Truck Alliance (YMM)
NYSE:YMM
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Full Truck Alliance
(NYSE:YMM)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(4.41% Upside)
Full Truck Alliance's strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights are the primary drivers of its stock score. Technical indicators suggest a stable trend, while valuation metrics are fair. Concerns about future revenue growth and increased service fees slightly temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, positioning the company for sustained expansion.
Operational Efficiency
Improved fulfillment efficiency enhances service quality and customer satisfaction, strengthening competitive positioning in the logistics sector.
User Engagement
Increasing user engagement reflects the platform's growing appeal and stickiness, which is crucial for long-term revenue growth and market share.
Negative Factors
Service Fee Increase Impact
Higher service fees could deter shippers, reducing transaction volumes and potentially impacting revenue and profitability negatively.
Modest Revenue Growth Forecast
Slower projected revenue growth suggests potential challenges in maintaining past growth rates, possibly affecting investor confidence and strategic flexibility.
Cash Flow Data Absence
Lack of updated cash flow information hinders assessment of liquidity and financial health, potentially obscuring risks related to operational sustainability.
Full Truck Alliance (YMM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.43B
Dividend Yield0.74%
Average Volume (3M)10.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.5
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth25.36%
EPS Growth61.25%
CountryUS
Employees7,185
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding939,300,900
10 Day Avg. Volume6,914,509
30 Day Avg. Volume10,297,457
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.11
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio1.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.80Price Target Upside6.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
Full Truck Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFull Truck Alliance (YMM), often referred to as the 'Uber for trucks,' is a leading digital freight platform based in China. The company operates in the logistics and transportation sector, providing a comprehensive online marketplace that connects truck drivers with shippers who need to transport goods. By leveraging technology, Full Truck Alliance aims to enhance efficiency and reduce costs within the highly fragmented trucking industry.
How the Company Makes MoneyFull Truck Alliance generates revenue primarily through service fees and commission charges. The company earns money by taking a percentage of the transaction value each time a shipper successfully books a trucking service through its platform. Additionally, Full Truck Alliance offers value-added services such as freight insurance, transaction facilitation, and membership subscriptions, which contribute to its revenue streams. The platform also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions and technology firms to provide integrated services, enhancing its market position and revenue potential.
Full Truck Alliance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 21, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong operational and financial performance with significant growth in order volume, revenue, and user engagement. However, concerns were raised about the potential negative impact of increased service fees on the freight brokerage business and the modest revenue growth forecast.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Growth in Fulfilled Orders
Fulfilled orders increased by 23.8% year-over-year, reaching 60.8 million, indicating strong growth momentum driven by user base expansion and improvements in fulfillment efficiency.
Record High Fulfillment Rate
The fulfillment rate reached a historical high of 40.7%, an increase of nearly seven percentage points from the prior year, demonstrating enhanced matching efficiency.
Strong Financial Performance
Total net revenue increased by 17.2% year-over-year to RMB 3.24 billion. Non-GAAP adjusted operating income rose 76% year-over-year to RMB 1.23 billion, and non-GAAP adjusted net income grew 39.3% year-over-year to RMB 1.35 billion.
Increase in Trucker Engagement
The number of active truckers rose to 4.34 million, up approximately 9% year-over-year, with trucker membership nearing 1 million, reflecting rising engagement and loyalty.
Advancements in Technology
AI-driven enhancements were made across multiple key processes, improving overall user experience and operational efficiency.
Negative Updates
Potential Impact of Freight Brokerage Service Fee Increase
The increase in freight brokerage service fees starting in August may lead to higher costs for shippers and a significant decline in freight brokerage transaction volume, potentially exerting pressure on profitability.
Challenges in Revenue Growth Forecast
The company expects a modest total net revenue growth rate of 1.3% to 4.6% for 2025, with potential declines in revenue from the freight brokerage business.
Company Guidance
During Full Truck Alliance's second-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company highlighted several key metrics and strategic initiatives. Fulfilled orders reached a milestone of 60.8 million, marking a 23.8% year-over-year increase, while the fulfillment rate improved to 40.7%, up by nearly seven percentage points. The average shipper monthly active users (MAUs) grew by 19.3% year-over-year to exceed 3.16 million, and shipper members surpassed 1.2 million, indicating increased user engagement and retention. The number of active truckers fulfilling orders rose to 4.34 million, a 9% increase from the previous year, and trucker membership approached 1 million. Financially, the company reported a 17.2% year-over-year increase in total net revenue to RMB 3.24 billion, with transaction service revenues surging 39.4% to RMB 1.33 billion. Non-GAAP adjusted operating income rose by 76% to RMB 1.23 billion, and adjusted net income increased by 39.3% to RMB 1.35 billion. Looking forward, the company expects total net revenues for 2025 to be between RMB 3 billion and RMB 3.617 billion, representing a growth rate of approximately 1.3% to 4.6%.Full Truck Alliance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Full Truck Alliance shows strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and profitability margins. The balance sheet is stable with low debt and strong equity. However, the absence of recent cash flow data limits a comprehensive analysis.Income Statement
Full Truck Alliance has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The Gross Profit Margin is impressive at 86.6%, and the company has improved its Net Profit Margin to 27.3% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, indicating improved operational efficiency.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a robust equity position with an Equity Ratio of 91.2%, suggesting financial stability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.002, indicating minimal reliance on debt. Return on Equity is strong at 8.1%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits.88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
While the Free Cash Flow was positive in previous years, the lack of available cash flow data for 2024 prevents a full assessment. Historically, the company has shown a good Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio, but recent data is absent.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.14B | 11.24B | 8.44B | 6.73B | 4.66B | 2.58B |
| Gross Profit | 8.66B | 9.73B | 7.20B | 3.22B | 2.12B | 1.26B |
| EBITDA | 3.96B | 2.55B | 2.41B | -74.14M | -3.73B | -3.38B |
| Net Income | 4.18B | 3.07B | 2.21B | 406.76M | -3.65B | -3.47B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 42.60B | 41.29B | 39.35B | 36.70B | 34.40B | 25.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.74B | 20.81B | 18.29B | 26.22B | 25.92B | 18.79B |
| Total Debt | 52.15M | 65.13M | 84.47M | 80.52M | 9.00M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 2.79B | 3.15B | 3.45B | 2.89B | 2.87B | 2.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.22B | 37.68B | 35.60B | 33.66B | 31.46B | 23.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.90B | 2.17B | -101.21M | -254.64M | 521.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.97B | 2.27B | -15.52M | -211.42M | 574.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -2.42B | 553.74M | 2.13B | -14.40B | -2.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.52B | -1.17B | -1.33B | 8.90B | 8.32B |
Full Truck Alliance Technical Analysis
Neutral
12.93
Price Trends
12.40
Positive
12.27
Positive
11.93
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Positive
47.66
Neutral
17.07
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YMM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 12.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.34, above the 50-day MA of 12.40, and above the 200-day MA of 11.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.07 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for YMM.
Full Truck Alliance Risk Analysis
Full Truck Alliance disclosed 96 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Full Truck Alliance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
The Group incurred in the past, and may incur in the future, net losses. Q4, 2023
2.
The Group's collection and recovery efforts may become less effective and may also subject it to regulatory risks and reputational risks. Q4, 2023
Full Truck Alliance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $13.43B | 23.46 | 11.14% | 0.74% | 25.36% | 61.25% | |
71 Outperform | $24.05B | 214.55 | -1.64% | ― | 18.84% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $5.46B | -335.04 | 0.61% | ― | 13.36% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $8.87B | 99.68 | 12.58% | ― | 19.94% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $3.29B | -171.20 | -3.50% | ― | 17.09% | 48.66% | |
61 Neutral | $4.42B | -13.40 | -38.05% | ― | 20.42% | -9.39% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
YMM
Full Truck Alliance
12.93
3.50
37.12%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.