Full Truck Alliance (YMM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.18B
• Dividend Yield: 0.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.74M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: 19.01%
• EPS Growth: 28.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,185
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 939,300,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 16,457,473
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,744,297
• PEG Ratio: 0.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 28.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 8.24
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.90
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 21.08
• 1Y Price Target: $12.30
• Price Target Upside: 24.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.7
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.90B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $12.00 ▲(21.70% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins and a low-debt balance sheet) and a constructive earnings update showing solid order/user growth and continued revenue growth guidance. These positives are tempered by weak technical signals (below key moving averages and negative MACD) and some earnings-call risks around brokerage revenue declines and cost pressures.

Positive Factors

Platform scale and engagement

Sustained double‑digit growth in orders and active users strengthens network effects and matching efficiency. Larger shipper and trucker bases lower marginal matching costs and improve service reliability, supporting durable transaction volume growth and long‑term monetization potential.

High margins and profitability

Exceptionally high gross and healthy net margins reflect strong unit economics and pricing power typical of a software‑led logistics platform. Durable margins provide capacity to reinvest in product, subsidize growth, and absorb cyclical freight swings without eroding long‑term profitability.

AI capability via Giga.AI acquisition

Acquiring Giga.AI materially enhances technological differentiation for routing, matching and pricing. Improved AI can raise fulfillment rates and operational efficiency, delivering a sustainable competitive advantage that supports higher long‑run monetization and lower per‑order costs.

Negative Factors

Declining freight brokerage revenue

A meaningful drop in freight brokerage revenue highlights risks to the core monetized segment. If persistent, this trend could reduce revenue mix quality and limit leverage from transaction growth, signaling competitive or structural shifts that could pressure long‑term monetization per order.

Rising VAT‑related costs

VAT‑related tax charges raised cost of revenues and compressed operating income. Recurring tax or regulatory cost volatility can materially erode margins unless offset by pricing, efficiency gains, or product mix shifts, posing a durable headwind to long‑term profitability.

Limited 2024 cash flow visibility

Absence of 2024 cash flow figures creates uncertainty about free cash flow conversion and true cash generation capacity. Even with strong margins historically, the data gap limits confidence in sustainable FCF to fund growth, buybacks, or absorb shocks over the medium term.

Full Truck Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China. The company offers freight listing, matching, and brokerage services; and online transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, electronic toll collection, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.

How the Company Makes Money

Full Truck Alliance generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company earns money by charging transaction fees for each match made between shippers and truck drivers on its platform. Additionally, it offers premium subscription services to logistics companies that provide enhanced features and analytics for efficient route planning and load management. The platform also monetizes through advertising and partnerships with transportation-related service providers, contributing to its overall earnings. Significant partnerships with logistics firms and technology companies further enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach.

Full Truck Alliance Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Full Truck Alliance shows strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and robust profitability margins. The balance sheet is stable with low debt levels and strong equity. However, the absence of recent cash flow data limits a comprehensive analysis in this area.

Income Statement

Full Truck Alliance has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The Gross Profit Margin is impressive at 86.6%, and the company has improved its Net Profit Margin to 27.3% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, indicating improved operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a robust equity position with an Equity Ratio of 91.2%, suggesting financial stability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.002, indicating minimal reliance on debt. Return on Equity is strong at 8.1%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits.

Cash Flow

While the Free Cash Flow was positive in previous years, the lack of available cash flow data for 2024 prevents a full assessment. Historically, the company has shown a good Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio, but recent data is absent.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.14B	11.24B	8.44B	6.73B	4.66B	2.58B
Gross Profit	8.66B	9.73B	7.20B	3.22B	2.12B	1.26B
EBITDA	3.98B	2.55B	2.41B	-74.14M	-3.57B	-3.38B
Net Income	4.18B	3.07B	2.21B	406.76M	-3.65B	-3.47B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	42.60B	41.29B	39.35B	36.70B	34.40B	25.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.74B	20.81B	18.29B	26.22B	25.92B	18.79B
Total Debt	52.15M	65.13M	84.47M	80.52M	9.00M	0.00
Total Liabilities	2.79B	3.15B	3.45B	2.89B	2.87B	2.08B
Stockholders Equity	39.22B	37.68B	35.60B	33.66B	31.46B	23.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	2.90B	2.17B	-101.21M	-254.64M	521.68M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	2.97B	2.27B	-15.52M	-211.42M	574.74M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-2.42B	553.74M	2.13B	-14.40B	-2.69B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.52B	-1.17B	-1.33B	8.90B	8.32B

Full Truck Alliance Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.86
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YMM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.79, below the 50-day MA of 11.25, and below the 200-day MA of 11.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for YMM.

Full Truck Alliance Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YMM	71 Outperform	$10.18B	18.97	10.30%	0.73%	19.01%	28.26%
ZETA	70 Outperform	$5.31B	―	-3.92%	―	35.87%	85.20%
LYFT	69 Neutral	$7.54B	50.82	24.53%	―	14.90%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
SPT	61 Neutral	$600.38M	-11.56	-26.69%	―	13.09%	32.34%
GRAB	61 Neutral	$17.94B	145.51	1.92%	―	20.22%	―
KC	50 Neutral	$3.80B	-22.74	-15.88%	―	24.26%	55.58%

Full Truck Alliance Corporate Events

Full Truck Alliance Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results with Revenue Growth

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. announced its unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showing a 10.8% increase in total net revenues to RMB3,358.2 million compared to the same period in 2024. Despite a decline in net income, the company reported significant growth in fulfilled orders and active users, driven by an increase in transaction service revenue and strategic acquisitions like Giga.AI. The results reflect the company’s commitment to leveraging technology for high-quality development and long-term value creation for users and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (YMM) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Full Truck Alliance stock, see the YMM Stock Forecast page.