Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM)
NYSE:YMM
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Full Truck Alliance
(NYSE:YMM)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$9.50
▲(6.98% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/21/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, very low leverage, and robust free cash flow) and a generally positive earnings-call outlook with improving operational KPIs and monetization. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below key long-term moving averages) and only moderate valuation support (P/E ~20 with a ~2.1% yield).
Positive Factors
High-quality cash generation
Sustained, high-quality FCF (≈97% of net income) and strong operating cash conversion provide durable funding for AI/product investment, fueling network growth, dividends or buybacks, and give flexibility to absorb cyclical shocks without relying on external financing.
Negative Factors
Modest top-line growth / deceleration
Slowing revenue expansion limits operating leverage and the pace at which improved monetization converts into higher absolute profits. If volume growth stalls, sustaining margin gains and justifying ongoing AI/R&D spend becomes harder, constraining medium-term earnings uplift.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High-quality cash generation
Sustained, high-quality FCF (≈97% of net income) and strong operating cash conversion provide durable funding for AI/product investment, fueling network growth, dividends or buybacks, and give flexibility to absorb cyclical shocks without relying on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Full Truck Alliance (YMM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.79B
Dividend Yield0.73%
Average Volume (3M)5.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.1
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth11.30%
EPS Growth43.44%
CountryUS
Employees7,185
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)26.82
Shares Outstanding932,510,200
10 Day Avg. Volume7,273,803
30 Day Avg. Volume5,912,457
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.43
Price to Book (P/B)1.95
Price to Sales (P/S)6.43
P/FCF Ratio17.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.86Price Target Upside33.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.64B
Full Truck Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Full Truck Alliance primarily makes money by monetizing transactions and activity on its digital freight marketplace. Key revenue streams include: (1) Freight matching / brokerage-style services: the company earns revenue by facilitating matches b...
Full Truck Alliance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple operational and product wins—accelerating fulfilled order growth (~14% YoY), record-high fulfillment rate (44.1%), strong transaction revenue growth (>33% YoY), rising commission penetration (>94%), expanded fueling network and AI pilots—supported by solid operating cash flow (RMB 1.56 billion). Challenges noted were manageable and largely strategic: modest overall revenue growth (5.5% YoY), short-term demand pressure from oil price volatility, transitional decline in self-operated invoicing as the company shifts to an aggregator model, and regulatory uncertainty around invoicing. Overall, the positives (improved quality of orders, monetization gains, stronger fulfillment, product and AI progress, and healthy cash flow) outweigh the near-term tactical and external headwinds.Positive Updates
Order Growth and Scale Expansion
Fulfilled orders reached 50.0 million in Q1 2026, up ~14% year-over-year (company also cited 14.3% acceleration). Management attributed the acceleration to platform governance, oil-driven shipper migration, and improved matching efficiency.
Negative Updates
Modest Total Revenue Growth
Total net revenue growth was relatively modest at 5.5% year-over-year to RMB 2.85 billion, indicating that despite strong transaction revenue growth and operational improvements, top-line growth remains uneven across revenue lines.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Order Growth and Scale Expansion
Fulfilled orders reached 50.0 million in Q1 2026, up ~14% year-over-year (company also cited 14.3% acceleration). Management attributed the acceleration to platform governance, oil-driven shipper migration, and improved matching efficiency.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that they expect to sustain “high‑quality” growth and reacceleration of order growth in the coming quarters, citing Q1 baselines and outlook drivers: fulfilled orders 50.0 million (up ~14% YoY / 14.3%), total net revenues RMB 2.85 billion (up 5.5% YoY), ex‑brokerage revenues RMB 2.02 billion (up 17% YoY), transaction service revenues RMB 1.39 billion (up >33% YoY) and net cash from operations RMB 1.56 billion; they said transaction service revenue should continue to grow as commission penetration has exceeded 94% (≈+9 pp YoY) and average monetization per order is ~RMB 26.9, fulfillment rates should keep rising from 44.1% (↑4.9 pp YoY, ↑1.4 pp QoQ) with low/medium‑frequency direct shippers near ~65%, shipper MAUs were 3.11 million (↑12.7% YoY), monthly active truckers remain ~3 million, trucker protections now cover >90% of listings, the fueling network is ~12,000 stations (with >3,000 Sinopec stations live), AI deployment will deepen across posting/matching/fulfillment, and the freight brokerage business will progressively shift to a dual‑track self‑operated (take rate ~10%) and aggregator (channel fee ~1–2%) model to support sustainable monetization.Full Truck Alliance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
95
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.14B | 12.15B | 11.24B | 8.44B | 6.73B | 4.66B |
| Gross Profit | 8.66B | 7.73B | 9.73B | 7.20B | 3.22B | 2.12B |
| EBITDA | 3.98B | 3.98B | 2.55B | 2.41B | -74.14M | -3.57B |
| Net Income | 4.18B | 4.29B | 3.07B | 2.21B | 406.76M | -3.65B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 42.60B | 44.35B | 41.29B | 39.35B | 36.70B | 34.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.74B | 17.20B | 20.81B | 18.29B | 26.22B | 25.92B |
| Total Debt | 52.15M | 35.35M | 65.13M | 84.47M | 80.52M | 9.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.79B | 3.05B | 3.15B | 3.45B | 2.89B | 2.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.22B | 40.06B | 37.68B | 35.60B | 33.66B | 31.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 4.50B | 2.90B | 2.17B | -101.21M | -254.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 4.63B | 2.97B | 2.27B | -15.52M | -211.42M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -2.72B | -2.42B | 553.74M | 2.13B | -14.40B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.66B | -1.52B | -1.17B | -1.33B | 8.90B |
Full Truck Alliance Technical Analysis
Negative
8.88
Price Trends
8.54
Negative
9.20
Negative
10.66
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Positive
44.15
Neutral
8.09
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YMM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.71, above the 50-day MA of 8.54, and below the 200-day MA of 10.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.09 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for YMM.
Full Truck Alliance Risk Analysis
Full Truck Alliance disclosed 96 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Full Truck Alliance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
The Group incurred in the past, and may incur in the future, net losses. Q4, 2023
2.
The Group's collection and recovery efforts may become less effective and may also subject it to regulatory risks and reputational risks. Q4, 2023
Full Truck Alliance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $8.79B | 20.06 | 11.21% | 0.73% | 11.30% | 43.44% | |
74 Outperform | $4.57B | -66.83 | -3.04% | ― | 33.60% | 63.13% | |
70 Outperform | $5.07B | 92.18 | 150.20% | ― | 9.36% | 5134.71% | |
68 Neutral | $408.99M | -13.43 | -19.29% | ― | 12.27% | 37.41% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $4.23B | -34.65 | -13.37% | ― | 23.05% | 56.65% | |
57 Neutral | $14.39B | 27.54 | 5.81% | ― | 21.80% | 1553.57% |
* Technology Sector Average
YMM
Full Truck Alliance
8.46
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-27.88%
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Full Truck Alliance Corporate Events
Full Truck Alliance Grows Q1 2026 Revenue on Surging Transaction Services but Profit Declines
May 21, 2026
Full Truck Alliance reported unaudited results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, showing total net revenues of RMB2.85 billion, up 5.5% year on year, driven mainly by a 33.1% jump in transaction service revenues and higher freight matching rev...
Full Truck Alliance Posts Strong 2025 Profit Growth as Transaction Services and AI Push Margins Higher
Mar 12, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Full Truck Alliance reported unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, showing modest top-line growth but sharply higher profitability. Total net revenues for 2025 rose 11.1% year over year ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.