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Full Truck Alliance (YMM)
NYSE:YMM
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Full Truck Alliance
(NYSE:YMM)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(12.36% Upside)
Full Truck Alliance's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights. However, technical analysis indicates potential short-term weakness, and valuation metrics suggest limited upside. Concerns about future revenue growth and increased service fees also weigh on the score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial health.
Operational Efficiency
The increase in fulfilled orders reflects improved operational efficiency and customer satisfaction, enhancing competitive positioning.
Technological Advancements
Investments in AI technology improve user experience and operational efficiency, providing a sustainable competitive advantage.
Negative Factors
Freight Brokerage Service Fees
Raising service fees could reduce transaction volumes and profitability, posing a risk to long-term revenue stability.
Modest Revenue Growth Forecast
A modest growth forecast suggests potential challenges in market expansion, impacting future financial performance.
Cash Flow Data Absence
Lack of updated cash flow data hinders a full assessment of financial health, potentially affecting investment decisions.
Full Truck Alliance (YMM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.15B
Dividend Yield0.77%
Average Volume (3M)6.94M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.8
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth25.36%
EPS Growth61.25%
CountryUS
Employees7,185
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding939,300,900
10 Day Avg. Volume6,392,955
30 Day Avg. Volume6,940,866
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.11
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio1.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.77
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.80Price Target Upside10.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
Full Truck Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China. The company offers freight listing, matching, and brokerage services; and online transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, electronic toll collection, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.
How the Company Makes MoneyFull Truck Alliance generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company earns money by charging transaction fees for each match made between shippers and truck drivers on its platform. Additionally, it offers premium subscription services to logistics companies that provide enhanced features and analytics for efficient route planning and load management. The platform also monetizes through advertising and partnerships with transportation-related service providers, contributing to its overall earnings. Significant partnerships with logistics firms and technology companies further enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach.
Full Truck Alliance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 21, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong operational and financial performance with significant growth in order volume, revenue, and user engagement. However, concerns were raised about the potential negative impact of increased service fees on the freight brokerage business and the modest revenue growth forecast.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Growth in Fulfilled Orders
Fulfilled orders increased by 23.8% year-over-year, reaching 60.8 million, indicating strong growth momentum driven by user base expansion and improvements in fulfillment efficiency.
Record High Fulfillment Rate
The fulfillment rate reached a historical high of 40.7%, an increase of nearly seven percentage points from the prior year, demonstrating enhanced matching efficiency.
Strong Financial Performance
Total net revenue increased by 17.2% year-over-year to RMB 3.24 billion. Non-GAAP adjusted operating income rose 76% year-over-year to RMB 1.23 billion, and non-GAAP adjusted net income grew 39.3% year-over-year to RMB 1.35 billion.
Increase in Trucker Engagement
The number of active truckers rose to 4.34 million, up approximately 9% year-over-year, with trucker membership nearing 1 million, reflecting rising engagement and loyalty.
Advancements in Technology
AI-driven enhancements were made across multiple key processes, improving overall user experience and operational efficiency.
Negative Updates
Potential Impact of Freight Brokerage Service Fee Increase
The increase in freight brokerage service fees starting in August may lead to higher costs for shippers and a significant decline in freight brokerage transaction volume, potentially exerting pressure on profitability.
Challenges in Revenue Growth Forecast
The company expects a modest total net revenue growth rate of 1.3% to 4.6% for 2025, with potential declines in revenue from the freight brokerage business.
Company Guidance
During Full Truck Alliance's second-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company highlighted several key metrics and strategic initiatives. Fulfilled orders reached a milestone of 60.8 million, marking a 23.8% year-over-year increase, while the fulfillment rate improved to 40.7%, up by nearly seven percentage points. The average shipper monthly active users (MAUs) grew by 19.3% year-over-year to exceed 3.16 million, and shipper members surpassed 1.2 million, indicating increased user engagement and retention. The number of active truckers fulfilling orders rose to 4.34 million, a 9% increase from the previous year, and trucker membership approached 1 million. Financially, the company reported a 17.2% year-over-year increase in total net revenue to RMB 3.24 billion, with transaction service revenues surging 39.4% to RMB 1.33 billion. Non-GAAP adjusted operating income rose by 76% to RMB 1.23 billion, and adjusted net income increased by 39.3% to RMB 1.35 billion. Looking forward, the company expects total net revenues for 2025 to be between RMB 3 billion and RMB 3.617 billion, representing a growth rate of approximately 1.3% to 4.6%.Full Truck Alliance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Full Truck Alliance shows strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and profitability margins. The balance sheet is stable with low debt and strong equity. However, the absence of recent cash flow data limits a comprehensive analysis.Income Statement
Full Truck Alliance has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The Gross Profit Margin is impressive at 86.6%, and the company has improved its Net Profit Margin to 27.3% in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, indicating improved operational efficiency.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a robust equity position with an Equity Ratio of 91.2%, suggesting financial stability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.002, indicating minimal reliance on debt. Return on Equity is strong at 8.1%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits.88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
While the Free Cash Flow was positive in previous years, the lack of available cash flow data for 2024 prevents a full assessment. Historically, the company has shown a good Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio, but recent data is absent.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.14B | 11.24B | 8.44B | 6.73B | 4.66B | 2.58B |
| Gross Profit | 8.66B | 9.73B | 7.20B | 3.22B | 2.12B | 1.26B |
| EBITDA | 3.96B | 2.55B | 2.41B | -74.14M | -3.73B | -3.38B |
| Net Income | 4.18B | 3.07B | 2.21B | 406.76M | -3.65B | -3.47B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 42.60B | 41.29B | 39.35B | 36.70B | 34.40B | 25.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.74B | 20.81B | 18.29B | 26.22B | 25.92B | 18.79B |
| Total Debt | 52.15M | 65.13M | 84.47M | 80.52M | 9.00M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 2.79B | 3.15B | 3.45B | 2.89B | 2.87B | 2.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.22B | 37.68B | 35.60B | 33.66B | 31.46B | 23.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.90B | 2.17B | -101.21M | -254.64M | 521.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.97B | 2.27B | -15.52M | -211.42M | 574.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -2.42B | 553.74M | 2.13B | -14.40B | -2.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.52B | -1.17B | -1.33B | 8.90B | 8.32B |
Full Truck Alliance Technical Analysis
Negative
12.46
Price Trends
12.71
Negative
12.30
Positive
11.99
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.13
Positive
45.51
Neutral
50.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YMM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.81, below the 50-day MA of 12.71, and above the 200-day MA of 11.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for YMM.
Full Truck Alliance Risk Analysis
Full Truck Alliance disclosed 96 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Full Truck Alliance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
The Group incurred in the past, and may incur in the future, net losses. Q4, 2023
2.
The Group's collection and recovery efforts may become less effective and may also subject it to regulatory risks and reputational risks. Q4, 2023
Full Truck Alliance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $13.15B | 22.79 | 11.14% | 0.77% | 25.36% | 61.25% | |
71 Outperform | $23.11B | 203.64 | 1.77% | ― | 18.84% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $8.21B | 92.33 | 14.07% | ― | 19.94% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $635.64M | ― | -32.50% | ― | 14.79% | 27.52% | |
60 Neutral | $4.41B | ― | -8.21% | ― | 40.60% | 79.56% | |
48 Neutral | $3.82B | ― | -31.02% | ― | 20.42% | -9.39% |
* Technology Sector Average
YMM
Full Truck Alliance
12.46
3.55
39.84%
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20.64
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51.10%
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GRAB
Grab
5.60
1.46
35.27%
ZETA
Zeta Global Holdings Corp
19.44
-6.64
-25.46%
Full Truck Alliance Corporate Events
Full Truck Alliance Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Growth
Aug 21, 2025
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. announced its unaudited financial results for the second quarter of 2025, revealing a 17.2% increase in total net revenues to RMB3,239.1 million compared to the same period in 2024. The company reported a net income increase of 50.5% to RMB1,264.8 million, driven by growth in transaction service revenues and improved operational efficiency. The platform expanded to 1.2 million shipper members and nearly one million trucker members, with a fulfillment rate increase to over 40%. The results underscore the company’s resilience and strategic focus on enhancing its freight matching ecosystem, aiming for long-term value delivery to users and shareholders.
Full Truck Alliance Adjusts Freight Brokerage Service Fees Amid Strategic Shift
Aug 4, 2025
On August 1, 2025, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. announced changes to its freight brokerage service, specifically increasing the service fee rate to reduce dependency on government grants. This decision is expected to lead to a significant decline in transaction volume and revenue from the freight brokerage service by the quarter ending September 30, 2025, potentially impacting the company’s profitability. These changes reflect the company’s strategic shift to ensure sustainability and address uncertainties, which may affect stakeholders, particularly shippers, due to increased costs.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.