Full Truck Alliance (YMM)
NYSE:YMM
Want to see YMM full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Full Truck Alliance
(NYSE:YMM)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(12.61% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/18/26
Score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, strong cash generation, and very low leverage) and a constructive earnings call (improving monetization/metrics and a sizable shareholder return plan). Offsetting factors are weaker longer-term technical trend signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and only moderate valuation support (P/E ~18 with a modest yield).
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Negligible debt and a conservative capital structure provide durable financial flexibility, low solvency risk, and capacity to fund strategic initiatives or weather cyclical downturns without forcing asset sales or dilutive financing, supporting long-term stability and investment optionality.
Negative Factors
Decelerating Revenue & Gross Margin Step-Down
Top-line deceleration and a notable gross-margin decline imply either adverse mix shifts or rising operating input costs. If structural, these trends could compress long-term profit expansion and require sustained efficiency gains or pricing power to restore prior margin trajectories.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Negligible debt and a conservative capital structure provide durable financial flexibility, low solvency risk, and capacity to fund strategic initiatives or weather cyclical downturns without forcing asset sales or dilutive financing, supporting long-term stability and investment optionality.
Read all positive factors
Full Truck Alliance (YMM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.65B
Dividend Yield0.73%
Average Volume (3M)6.95M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.2
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth11.30%
EPS Growth43.44%
CountryUS
Employees7,185
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.14
Shares Outstanding932,510,200
10 Day Avg. Volume5,268,555
30 Day Avg. Volume6,954,427
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.43
Price to Book (P/B)1.95
Price to Sales (P/S)6.43
P/FCF Ratio17.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.33Price Target Upside27.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)4.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.65B
Full Truck Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Full Truck Alliance primarily makes money by monetizing transactions and activity on its digital freight marketplace. Key revenue streams include: (1) Freight matching / brokerage-style services: the company earns revenue by facilitating matches b...
Full Truck Alliance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive tone: the company reported strong full-year revenue and profitability growth, meaningful improvement in monetization (transaction service revenue growth, higher commission penetration and monetization per order), record fulfillment rates, successful ecosystem governance to improve long-term platform quality, advancing AI deployments from pilot to commercial usage, and a clear shareholder return program. Lowlights were mainly transitional: a temporary slowdown in order growth driven by intentional governance actions, short-term pressure in the credit business due to regulatory-aligned rate reductions and some asset-quality volatility, and multi-year investments (AI, autonomous driving, overseas expansion) that will take time to monetize. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights, supporting a positive outlook while acknowledging near-term execution and regulatory headwinds.Positive Updates
Order Growth and Scale Expansion
Total fulfilled orders reached 63.9 million in Q4 (YoY +12.3%) and 236 million for the full year (YoY +19.8%). Full-year cold chain orders grew nearly 30% YoY, indicating strong category expansion.
Negative Updates
Temporary Slowdown in Order Growth
Order growth moderated in Q4 (despite YoY +12.3%) mainly due to large-scale ecosystem governance removing low-quality and misclassified orders; some orders temporarily shifted offline or to other product categories, causing near-term volume headwinds.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Order Growth and Scale Expansion
Total fulfilled orders reached 63.9 million in Q4 (YoY +12.3%) and 236 million for the full year (YoY +19.8%). Full-year cold chain orders grew nearly 30% YoY, indicating strong category expansion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 will focus on high‑quality growth, full AI integration and steady ecosystem optimization while returning about USD 400 million to shareholders (including a Q1 dividend of ~USD 87.5M); operationally they expect order recovery and continued improvement in monetization after 2025 results of 63.9M fulfilled orders in Q4 (+12.3% YoY) and 236M for the year (+19.8%), net revenues of RMB 12.49B (+11.1% YoY), transaction service revenues RMB 5.32B (+38.2% YoY) and Q4 transaction service revenue ~RMB 1.49B (+~28% YoY), net income RMB 4.46B (+42.8% YoY) and non‑GAAP adjusted net income RMB 4.79B (+19.3% YoY); key operating metrics to be strengthened include Q4 fulfillment rate 42.7% (+>5pp YoY; mid/low‑frequency direct shippers ~65%), average monetization per order ~RMB 26.3, average monthly active shippers 3.28M in Q4 (3.14M FY; +11.6% Q4 / +18.6% FY), commission penetration 88.6% (+~6pp YoY) across 273 cities, next‑month retention for responding truckers >85%, rolling 12‑month active trucker base at a high level, credit 90‑day delinquency 2.9% with loans transitioned to ≤26% interest and a shift to more asset‑light, bank‑partnered credit models.Full Truck Alliance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
95
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.14B | 12.15B | 11.24B | 8.44B | 6.73B | 4.66B |
| Gross Profit | 8.66B | 7.73B | 9.73B | 7.20B | 3.22B | 2.12B |
| EBITDA | 3.98B | 3.98B | 2.55B | 2.41B | -74.14M | -3.57B |
| Net Income | 4.18B | 4.29B | 3.07B | 2.21B | 406.76M | -3.65B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 42.60B | 44.35B | 41.29B | 39.35B | 36.70B | 34.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.74B | 17.20B | 20.81B | 18.29B | 26.22B | 25.92B |
| Total Debt | 52.15M | 35.35M | 65.13M | 84.47M | 80.52M | 9.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.79B | 3.05B | 3.15B | 3.45B | 2.89B | 2.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.22B | 40.06B | 37.68B | 35.60B | 33.66B | 31.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 4.50B | 2.90B | 2.17B | -101.21M | -254.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 4.63B | 2.97B | 2.27B | -15.52M | -211.42M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -2.72B | -2.42B | 553.74M | 2.13B | -14.40B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.66B | -1.52B | -1.17B | -1.33B | 8.90B |
Full Truck Alliance Technical Analysis
Neutral
8.88
Price Trends
8.85
Positive
9.76
Negative
11.02
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
60.76
Neutral
85.34
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YMM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.29, above the 50-day MA of 8.85, and below the 200-day MA of 11.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for YMM.
Full Truck Alliance Risk Analysis
Full Truck Alliance disclosed 96 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Full Truck Alliance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
The Group incurred in the past, and may incur in the future, net losses. Q4, 2023
2.
The Group's collection and recovery efforts may become less effective and may also subject it to regulatory risks and reputational risks. Q4, 2023
Full Truck Alliance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $8.65B | 18.23 | 11.21% | 0.73% | 11.30% | 43.44% | |
69 Neutral | $4.35B | -143.66 | -4.43% | ― | 29.72% | 63.53% | |
64 Neutral | $5.58B | 2.80 | 209.99% | ― | 9.16% | 13719.10% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $15.66B | 76.19 | 4.10% | ― | 20.52% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $355.69M | -15.25 | -22.88% | ― | 12.72% | 32.06% | |
56 Neutral | $4.58B | -21.74 | -13.37% | ― | 23.05% | 56.65% |
* Technology Sector Average
YMM
Full Truck Alliance
8.32
-2.87
-25.64%
LYFT
Lyft
14.34
1.94
15.65%
SPT
Sprout Social
5.92
-14.99
-71.69%
KC
Kingsoft Cloud Holdings
14.89
1.30
9.57%
GRAB
Grab
3.82
-1.06
-21.72%
ZETA
Zeta Global Holdings Corp
17.81
4.75
36.37%
Full Truck Alliance Corporate Events
Full Truck Alliance Posts Strong 2025 Profit Growth as Transaction Services and AI Push Margins Higher
Mar 12, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Full Truck Alliance reported unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, showing modest top-line growth but sharply higher profitability. Total net revenues for 2025 rose 11.1% year over year ...
Full Truck Alliance Launches Long-Term Shareholder Return Plan, Pledges $400 Million for 2026
Jan 20, 2026
On January 19, 2026, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. announced that its board of directors has approved a long-term shareholder return plan under which the company will distribute at least 50% of its non-GAAP adjusted net income from the prior fiscal...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.