Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)
NYSE:XZO
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Exzeo Group, Inc.
(NYSE:XZO)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(3.90% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
Score is driven primarily by strong financial performance and a positive earnings outlook (profitability, cash generation, low leverage, and constructive 2026 guidance). These strengths are tempered by weak current technical momentum and elevated volatility, while valuation cannot be verified due to missing P/E and dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Sustained high free cash flow and >100% conversion indicate high earnings quality and internal funding capacity. This durable cash generation supports reinvestment in sales and product, funds growth initiatives without reliance on debt, and provides a cushion through insurance cycle swings.
Negative Factors
Third-Party Revenue Nascent
Non-HCI third-party revenues are still embryonic, so the company's diversification away from core captive business remains incomplete. Reliance on onboarding a few third-party clients creates execution risk; failure to scale third-party revenue would limit longer-term structural growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Sustained high free cash flow and >100% conversion indicate high earnings quality and internal funding capacity. This durable cash generation supports reinvestment in sales and product, funds growth initiatives without reliance on debt, and provides a cushion through insurance cycle swings.
Read all positive factors
Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.30B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)578.09K
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.6
Beta (1Y)4.03
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees354
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.25
Shares Outstanding90,913,540
10 Day Avg. Volume244,003
30 Day Avg. Volume578,087
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)8.67
Price to Sales (P/S)10.16
P/FCF Ratio22.62
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.77
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.25
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.43
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$233.37M
Exzeo Group, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Exzeo Group, Inc. provides turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to insurance carriers and agents. The company offers an Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS) platform that provides solutions for operational and administrative activities, ...
Exzeo Group, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple material operational and financial positives: strong profitability, significant managed premium and ARR expansion, high margins, robust free cash flow with >100% conversion, a clean balance sheet, and early traction on third-party clients and new product (flood) with a major partner (Tokio Marine). Management also raised managed premium guidance for 2026 and reiterated pretax income guidance while investing in sales and emphasizing a strategic edge from automation and proprietary data in an AI-driven industry shift. The main negatives are timing and predictability risks from a still-nascent third-party revenue stream, a lumpy/back-end loaded ramp, and forecast uncertainty due to a small number of carrier partners. Overall, the highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights, reflecting constructive momentum but with near-term timing risk.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly and Full-Year Profitability
Pretax income of ~$29M in Q4 2025 and >$110M for the full year 2025; diluted EPS of $0.25 in Q4 and $0.99 for the full year.
Negative Updates
Third-Party Revenue Early Stage and Modest Near-Term Contribution
Third-party (non-HCI) revenue was 0 at the end of Q3 and only nominal at the end of Q4; contribution from the two new clients in Q4 was described as modest, with expected managed premium of ~$100M only by end of Q1 2026.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly and Full-Year Profitability
Pretax income of ~$29M in Q4 2025 and >$110M for the full year 2025; diluted EPS of $0.25 in Q4 and $0.99 for the full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Exzeo guided to Q1 2026 pretax income of $23–$26 million and full‑year 2026 pretax income of $115–$125 million, expects managed premium to be >$1.4 billion by end‑Q1 and raised 2026 year‑end managed premium to $1.55 billion (including ~ $100 million from two new non‑HCI clients by end‑Q1); the company also reiterated expected free‑cash‑flow conversion >100% for 2026. For context, Q4 results included pretax income of ~ $29M, diluted EPS $0.25, Q4 revenue $53M and FY2025 revenue $217M; FY2025 pretax income was > $110M with diluted EPS $0.99, adjusted EBITDA margin >54% (Q4 and FY), ARR $215M (vs ~$139M LYQ), managed premium $1.39B (vs ~$580M LY), FY2025 free cash flow ~$97M with net income ~$83M (FCF conversion 117%), cash and equivalents $305M, no debt and shareholders’ equity of $254M; management noted revenue recognition is ~25% upfront and the remainder over 12 months and that 2026 ramp may be back‑end loaded.Exzeo Group, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 216.98M | 133.95M | 88.33M | 51.70M | 21.34M |
| Gross Profit | 131.02M | 52.87M | 16.98M | 2.06M | 5.94M |
| EBITDA | 113.23M | 40.38M | 4.76M | -7.59M | -1.05M |
| Net Income | 82.75M | 44.10M | 20.77M | -12.42M | -6.91M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 347.73M | 89.64M | 625.57M | 160.76M | 96.23M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 305.37M | 54.50M | 15.05M | 103.87M | 52.35M |
| Total Debt | 7.25M | 8.35M | 65.93M | 22.32M | 738.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 93.58M | 74.13M | 554.71M | 154.21M | 79.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | 254.16M | 15.51M | 70.86M | 6.55M | 16.96M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 97.45M | 188.58M | 56.12M | 28.90M | 30.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 100.30M | 191.91M | 59.37M | 30.38M | 33.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.84M | -192.52M | -16.60M | -2.51M | -735.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 153.65M | -6.40M | -7.12M | 21.99M | 4.99M |
Exzeo Group, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $34.44B | 7.15 | 19.02% | ― | 16.68% | -28.54% | |
81 Outperform | $1.11B | 8.68 | 18.79% | 4.00% | 0.76% | ― | |
72 Outperform | $1.30B | 26.64 | 25.32% | ― | ― | ― | |
70 Outperform | $9.91B | 13.42 | 15.32% | 6.98% | 7.08% | -4.36% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
58 Neutral | $1.63B | 66.09 | -30.28% | ― | 24.81% | 55.93% | |
56 Neutral | $1.67B | 9.21 | -0.57% | 2.55% | 11.71% | -101.08% |
* Financial Sector Average
XZO
Exzeo Group, Inc.
14.30
-6.71
-31.94%
ACGL
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ORI
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40.34
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24.26%
IGIC
International General Insurance Holdings
25.25
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19.10%
GSHD
GooseHead Insurance
44.49
-59.41
-57.18%
FIHL
Fidelis Insurance Holdings Ltd.
19.29
4.68
32.02%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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