Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)
NYSE:XZO
Want to see XZO full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Exzeo Group, Inc.
(NYSE:XZO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$16.50
▲(7.14% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
Score is driven primarily by strong financial performance and a positive earnings outlook (profitability, cash generation, low leverage, and constructive 2026 guidance). These strengths are tempered by weak current technical momentum and elevated volatility, while valuation cannot be verified due to missing P/E and dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow conversion
Exzeo's ~117% free cash flow conversion in 2025 shows earnings reliably convert to cash, supporting self‑funded growth, product investment and partner rollouts. Durable FCF reduces refinancing reliance and provides a multi‑quarter buffer for execution risk and strategic initiatives.
Negative Factors
Historical capital structure volatility
Significant year‑to‑year swings in leverage, margins and ROE point to instability and potential one‑off effects. Such step‑changes increase model risk and mean 2025 metrics may not persist absent consistent capital allocation and operational maturity, requiring monitoring over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow conversion
Exzeo's ~117% free cash flow conversion in 2025 shows earnings reliably convert to cash, supporting self‑funded growth, product investment and partner rollouts. Durable FCF reduces refinancing reliance and provides a multi‑quarter buffer for execution risk and strategic initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.48B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)578.09K
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.6
Beta (1Y)3.66
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees354
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.25
Shares Outstanding90,913,540
10 Day Avg. Volume244,003
30 Day Avg. Volume578,087
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)8.67
Price to Sales (P/S)10.16
P/FCF Ratio22.62
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.52
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$233.37M
Exzeo Group, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Exzeo Group, Inc. provides turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to insurance carriers and agents. The company offers an Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS) platform that provides solutions for operational and administrative activities, ...
Exzeo Group, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple material operational and financial positives: strong profitability, significant managed premium and ARR expansion, high margins, robust free cash flow with >100% conversion, a clean balance sheet, and early traction on third-party clients and new product (flood) with a major partner (Tokio Marine). Management also raised managed premium guidance for 2026 and reiterated pretax income guidance while investing in sales and emphasizing a strategic edge from automation and proprietary data in an AI-driven industry shift. The main negatives are timing and predictability risks from a still-nascent third-party revenue stream, a lumpy/back-end loaded ramp, and forecast uncertainty due to a small number of carrier partners. Overall, the highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights, reflecting constructive momentum but with near-term timing risk.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly and Full-Year Profitability
Pretax income of ~$29M in Q4 2025 and >$110M for the full year 2025; diluted EPS of $0.25 in Q4 and $0.99 for the full year.
Negative Updates
Third-Party Revenue Early Stage and Modest Near-Term Contribution
Third-party (non-HCI) revenue was 0 at the end of Q3 and only nominal at the end of Q4; contribution from the two new clients in Q4 was described as modest, with expected managed premium of ~$100M only by end of Q1 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly and Full-Year Profitability
Pretax income of ~$29M in Q4 2025 and >$110M for the full year 2025; diluted EPS of $0.25 in Q4 and $0.99 for the full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Exzeo guided to Q1 2026 pretax income of $23–$26 million and full‑year 2026 pretax income of $115–$125 million, expects managed premium to be >$1.4 billion by end‑Q1 and raised 2026 year‑end managed premium to $1.55 billion (including ~ $100 million from two new non‑HCI clients by end‑Q1); the company also reiterated expected free‑cash‑flow conversion >100% for 2026. For context, Q4 results included pretax income of ~ $29M, diluted EPS $0.25, Q4 revenue $53M and FY2025 revenue $217M; FY2025 pretax income was > $110M with diluted EPS $0.99, adjusted EBITDA margin >54% (Q4 and FY), ARR $215M (vs ~$139M LYQ), managed premium $1.39B (vs ~$580M LY), FY2025 free cash flow ~$97M with net income ~$83M (FCF conversion 117%), cash and equivalents $305M, no debt and shareholders’ equity of $254M; management noted revenue recognition is ~25% upfront and the remainder over 12 months and that 2026 ramp may be back‑end loaded.Exzeo Group, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 216.98M | 133.95M | 88.33M | 51.70M | 21.34M |
| Gross Profit | 131.02M | 52.87M | 16.98M | 2.06M | 5.94M |
| EBITDA | 113.23M | 40.38M | 4.76M | -7.59M | -1.05M |
| Net Income | 82.75M | 44.10M | 20.77M | -12.42M | -6.91M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 347.73M | 89.64M | 625.57M | 160.76M | 96.23M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 305.37M | 54.50M | 15.05M | 103.87M | 52.35M |
| Total Debt | 7.25M | 8.35M | 65.93M | 22.32M | 738.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 93.58M | 74.13M | 554.71M | 154.21M | 79.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | 254.16M | 15.51M | 70.86M | 6.55M | 16.96M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 97.45M | 188.58M | 56.12M | 28.90M | 30.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 100.30M | 191.91M | 59.37M | 30.38M | 33.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.84M | -192.52M | -16.60M | -2.51M | -735.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 153.65M | -6.40M | -7.12M | 21.99M | 4.99M |
Exzeo Group, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $1.10B | 8.29 | 18.79% | 4.00% | -3.25% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $33.03B | ― | 21.07% | ― | 8.66% | ― | |
72 Outperform | $1.48B | 26.64 | 25.32% | ― | ― | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $9.67B | 7.37 | 16.72% | 6.98% | 13.12% | 33.51% | |
65 Neutral | $1.68B | 52.94 | -30.35% | ― | 17.56% | -3.08% | |
56 Neutral | $1.81B | 9.21 | 9.46% | 2.55% | 2.48% | 138.33% |
* Financial Sector Average
XZO
Exzeo Group, Inc.
16.20
-4.81
-22.89%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
94.46
4.79
5.34%
ORI
Old Republic International
39.95
5.71
16.66%
IGIC
International General Insurance Holdings
25.21
2.44
10.72%
GSHD
GooseHead Insurance
44.79
-52.33
-53.88%
FIHL
Fidelis Insurance Holdings Ltd.
21.13
5.51
35.28%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.