Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)
NYSE:XZO
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Exzeo Group, Inc.
(NYSE:XZO)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(0.65% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/08/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (rapid growth, expanding margins, strong cash conversion, and low leverage) and a largely positive earnings call with maintained guidance and strong profitability/FCF. These positives are tempered by weak technical setup (trading below key moving averages, weak momentum, high beta) and only neutral valuation support (P/E ~16; no dividend yield provided).
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Conversion
Very strong FCF conversion (≈123%) indicates high earnings quality and persistent cash generation that can fund growth, product investment, and shareholder returns without relying on external financing. Durable cash conversion supports resilience through underwriting cycles and funds scaling initiatives.
Negative Factors
Revenue Recognition Timing
A structural recognition model that phases premium revenue means premium growth does not immediately convert to top‑line or margins. This creates persistent lags between business development and reported revenue, complicating short‑term visibility and requiring sustained premium gains to drive reported growth.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Conversion
Very strong FCF conversion (≈123%) indicates high earnings quality and persistent cash generation that can fund growth, product investment, and shareholder returns without relying on external financing. Durable cash conversion supports resilience through underwriting cycles and funds scaling initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.17B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)578.09K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.3
Beta (1Y)3.07
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees354
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.67
Shares Outstanding90,918,430
10 Day Avg. Volume244,003
30 Day Avg. Volume578,087
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)8.67
Price to Sales (P/S)10.16
P/FCF Ratio22.62
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.84
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$235.68M
Exzeo Group, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Exzeo Group, Inc. provides turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to insurance carriers and agents. The company offers an Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS) platform that provides solutions for operational and administrative activities, ...
Exzeo Group, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed multiple substantive positives: solid top‑line growth, high profitability (≈49% adjusted EBITDA margin), strong free cash flow (123% conversion), balance sheet strength (debt‑free with $330M assets), early success diversifying managed premium with new carriers contributing ~$105M, and rapid AI‑driven product development (WinForm Pro) that demonstrates new monetization avenues. Near‑term constraints include revenue recognition timing limiting immediate revenue conversion of recently added premium, planned flat managed premium in Q2, product monetization expected to be modest initially, and concentration/seasonality risk from a Florida‑centric client base. Despite some transcript inconsistencies in reported figures, the fundamental operating metrics and guidance were positive and management is investing to scale, so the highlights outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Managed Premium Growth and Diversification
Managed premium on the platform was reported at $1.43 billion (Suela) — up from $1.2 billion year‑over‑year (~+19%) — with three new carriers added in the past six months that contributed approximately $105 million (over 7% of managed premium), reflecting diversification beyond historical HCI sponsorship.
Negative Updates
Near‑term Revenue Recognition Timing
New premium additions joined mid‑to‑late quarter and only ~25–30% of premium is recognized upfront with remainder over time, so recent managed premium growth had limited immediate revenue impact and contributed less to 1Q revenue than headline premium growth might suggest.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Managed Premium Growth and Diversification
Managed premium on the platform was reported at $1.43 billion (Suela) — up from $1.2 billion year‑over‑year (~+19%) — with three new carriers added in the past six months that contributed approximately $105 million (over 7% of managed premium), reflecting diversification beyond historical HCI sponsorship.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management left 2026 guidance unchanged, forecasting full‑year pretax income of $115–$125 million and Q2 pretax income of $27–$30 million, with managed premium expected to remain roughly flat in Q2 at about $1.4 billion and to reach approximately $1.55 billion at year‑end; this guidance follows a strong Q1 that featured $1.43 billion of managed premium, pretax income just over $27 million, revenue of $56 million, adjusted EBITDA margin of ~49%, diluted EPS of $0.22, ARR of $216 million, free cash flow of ~$25 million (123% conversion versus ~$20 million net income), $330 million of investment assets, a debt‑free balance sheet, and shareholders’ equity of $275 million.Exzeo Group, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 164.02M | 216.98M | 133.95M | 88.33M | 51.70M | 21.34M |
| Gross Profit | 98.77M | 127.61M | 52.87M | 16.98M | 2.06M | 5.94M |
| EBITDA | 87.00M | 113.23M | 40.38M | 4.76M | -7.59M | -1.05M |
| Net Income | 63.54M | 82.75M | 44.10M | 20.77M | -12.42M | -6.91M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 379.77M | 347.73M | 89.64M | 625.57M | 160.76M | 96.23M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 231.38M | 305.37M | 54.50M | 15.05M | 103.87M | 52.35M |
| Total Debt | 6.93M | 7.25M | 8.35M | 65.93M | 22.32M | 738.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 104.83M | 93.58M | 74.13M | 554.71M | 154.21M | 79.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | 274.94M | 254.16M | 15.51M | 70.86M | 6.55M | 16.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 66.33M | 97.45M | 188.58M | 56.12M | 28.90M | 30.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 68.24M | 100.30M | 191.91M | 59.37M | 30.38M | 33.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -100.91M | -2.84M | -192.52M | -16.60M | -2.51M | -735.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 153.59M | 153.65M | -6.40M | -7.12M | 21.99M | 4.99M |
Exzeo Group, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $1.08B | 12.32 | 17.87% | 4.00% | -4.12% | ― | |
78 Outperform | $33.83B | 8.24 | 20.48% | ― | 8.66% | 32.96% | |
71 Outperform | $9.68B | 7.37 | 16.72% | 6.98% | 13.12% | 33.46% | |
70 Outperform | $1.17B | 16.34 | 37.15% | ― | ― | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
62 Neutral | $1.47B | 52.94 | -30.35% | ― | 17.56% | -3.08% |
* Financial Sector Average
XZO
Exzeo Group, Inc.
12.84
-8.17
-38.89%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group
96.84
3.99
4.30%
ORI
Old Republic International
39.86
5.36
15.53%
IGIC
International General Insurance Holdings
25.28
3.34
15.23%
GSHD
GooseHead Insurance
41.37
-66.29
-61.58%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.