Western Union (WU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.88B
• Dividend Yield: 10.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.39
• Revenue Growth: -2.51%
• EPS Growth: 17.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,100
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 313,454,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,557,140
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,351,358
• PEG Ratio: -0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.75
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.42
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.81
• 1Y Price Target: $9.00
• Price Target Upside: 0.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.8
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.28B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(16.80% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

WU scores highest on valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and is supported by solid cash-flow durability. The overall score is held back by declining revenue and weaker 2025 earnings, plus ongoing core retail remittance headwinds and policy/interest-expense risks noted on the earnings call; technical signals are neutral-to-mildly supportive.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Consistent positive operating cash flow and a 2025 FCF of ~$393M provide durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. Reliable cash conversion strengthens financial flexibility to weather remittance cycles and supports capital allocation without sole reliance on external financing.

Accelerating branded digital mix

A rising digital mix (now >40% of principal) and double-digit transaction growth indicate structural migration away from retail. Digital scale reduces per-transaction costs, supports higher throughput and data-driven product expansion, and helps diversify revenue away from legacy retail fragility.

Exclusive retail/agent wins expand network

Securing exclusive, large-scale retail partners materially expands distribution and access to customers. These contracts create durable revenue upside (~$100M when ramped), strengthen agent economics, and complement digital growth by preserving presence where cash or in-person payout remains preferred.

Negative Factors

Multi-year revenue decline

A multi-year decline in revenue erodes scale economics and bargaining leverage with partners, pressuring long-term profitability if structural drivers persist. Reversing this trend requires sustained digital growth, successful integrations, or new product adoption to offset legacy remittance erosion.

Retail remittance corridor weakness

Persistent weakness in key corridors, especially U.S.-to-Mexico retail, represents a structural demand headwind. Given the company's historical retail exposure, prolonged corridor declines reduce core transaction volumes and revenue resilience, making growth more dependent on digital and wallet adoption.

Intermex integration & regulatory risk

The Intermex deal's regulatory approvals and delayed synergy realization create execution risk and uncertainty around forecasted revenue/margin uplift. Protracted integration can increase costs, postpone accretion, and require additional compliance resources, limiting near-term structural improvement.

Western Union Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Western Union Company provides money movement and payment services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Consumer-to-Consumer and Business Solutions. The Consumer-to-Consumer segment facilitates money transfers between two consumers, primarily through a network of third-party agents and sub-agents; and offers international cross-border transfers and intra-country transfers, as well as money transfer transactions through websites and mobile devices. The Business Solutions segment provides payment and foreign exchange solutions, primarily cross-border and cross-currency transactions for small and medium size enterprises, other organizations, and individuals; and foreign currency forward and option contracts. It also offers bill payment services that facilitates payments from consumers to businesses and other organizations, as well as offers money order and other services. The company was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Western Union primarily makes money by charging fees associated with moving money for consumers and businesses, with revenue largely tied to transaction activity and payment/settlement economics. Key revenue streams include: (1) Transaction fees on money transfers: Customers pay a transfer fee that typically varies based on factors such as send/receive countries, payout method (cash pickup, bank account, mobile wallet), funding method (cash, debit/credit, bank transfer), speed, and compliance/processing costs. These fees are earned across both retail (agent-located) and digital transactions. (2) Foreign exchange (FX) revenue: When a transfer involves converting currencies, Western Union can earn revenue from the spread between the rate it offers customers and the rate at which it sources currency/hedges exposure. FX-related economics can be a significant part of unit revenue on international transfers and depend on currency corridors and payout currencies. (3) Agent and partner network economics: Western Union distributes its services through third-party agents (e.g., retailers, post offices, and other storefront operators) and other partners. Western Union generally shares a portion of transaction economics with these agents via commissions or other revenue-sharing arrangements, while retaining the remainder as revenue after considering partner payouts. The breadth of the agent network can drive transaction volume, while commission structures affect margins. (4) Digital channel revenue: Transfers initiated via Western Union’s apps and website generate revenue through transfer fees and FX, often with different pricing and cost structures than retail. Digital transactions may rely on partnerships for card processing, bank transfers, and payout networks; associated processing costs reduce net economics but can support growth in volume. (5) Other consumer services: In some markets, Western Union offers products such as bill payments and money orders, which can generate service fees. If Western Union provides additional financial services in specific countries, revenue is typically fee-based, but availability and materiality vary by market. (6) Business solutions (where offered): Western Union has historically offered services to business customers in certain areas (e.g., cross-border payments), which can generate fees and FX revenue; the current scope and contribution of these offerings may vary over time. Earnings are influenced by transaction volumes (remittance and other transfer demand), mix shifts between retail vs. digital, pricing competition, corridor-specific FX dynamics, regulatory/compliance requirements (which can affect costs and permitted activities), and the strength of distribution partnerships that enable sending and payout access.

Western Union Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and recurring cash generation (2025 FCF ~$393M; positive OCF/FCF across periods) supports durability, but multi-year revenue decline and a sharp 2025 earnings drop vs. 2024 weigh on the fundamental trend. Balance-sheet picture is mixed in the provided data (improving per statements, but leverage noted in the earnings materials), so overall fundamentals are moderate.

Income Statement

Revenue has been in a multi-year decline (down from ~$5.07B in 2021 to ~$4.05B in 2025), signaling ongoing top-line pressure. Profitability remains solid for the industry, with gross margin holding in the high-30% range and 2025 net margin still healthy (~12%), but earnings were meaningfully lower in 2025 versus 2024 (net income down from ~$934M to ~$500M). Overall: durable margins, but weakening growth and profit trajectory weigh on the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage was a key risk historically, with very high debt relative to equity in 2020–2023 and still elevated in 2024 (debt-to-equity ~3.2x). 2025 shows total debt at zero with a debt-to-equity of 0.0x, which—if sustainable—materially strengthens the balance sheet and lowers financial risk. The main offset is that equity remains relatively modest (~$958M) versus the asset base (~$8.3B), so balance-sheet resilience is improved but not yet overwhelmingly strong based on equity depth.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive across the period, and 2025 free cash flow rose to ~$393M (positive growth) while remaining well-supported by operations. Free cash flow covered a large portion of 2025 earnings (~72%), indicating decent earnings quality. The main weakness is volatility over time (free cash flow growth swings between strong positives and notable declines in prior years), but overall cash conversion and consistency are favorable.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.04B	4.21B	4.36B	4.48B	5.07B
Gross Profit	1.16B	1.59B	1.69B	1.85B	2.17B
EBITDA	934.30M	917.50M	1.03B	1.29B	1.25B
Net Income	499.60M	934.20M	626.00M	910.60M	805.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.31B	8.37B	8.20B	8.50B	8.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.23B	1.47B	1.27B	1.29B	1.21B
Total Debt	0.00	3.13B	2.67B	2.78B	3.01B
Total Liabilities	7.35B	7.40B	7.72B	8.02B	8.47B
Stockholders Equity	957.80M	968.90M	479.00M	477.80M	355.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	392.90M	368.90M	635.30M	373.40M	830.70M
Operating Cash Flow	543.70M	406.30M	783.10M	581.60M	1.05B
Investing Cash Flow	-230.30M	-16.30M	-140.80M	525.50M	192.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-782.60M	-69.30M	-896.80M	-1.18B	-1.27B

Western Union Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 8.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WU, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.31, below the 50-day MA of 9.33, and above the 200-day MA of 8.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.33 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for WU.

Western Union Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IX	70 Outperform	$31.22B	10.73	10.88%	2.72%	7.10%	12.75%
WU	68 Neutral	$2.88B	6.09	53.92%	10.18%	-2.51%	17.47%
OMF	68 Neutral	$5.97B	10.25	23.40%	6.07%	9.51%	29.38%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SYF	67 Neutral	$22.77B	8.41	21.09%	1.34%	-6.38%	19.65%
PYPL	63 Neutral	$40.68B	10.70	25.87%	―	4.50%	19.71%
SOFI	63 Neutral	$21.78B	62.56	5.87%	―	22.40%	215.81%

Western Union Corporate Events

Western Union Adds Milind Pant to Board of Directors

On March 13, 2026, Western Union expanded its Board of Directors from 11 to 12 members and appointed global business leader Milind Pant, 55, as an independent director. He also joined the Audit and Compliance Committees, with compensation aligned to the company’s standard package for non-employee directors, prorated for his 2026 service.

Pant, a former CEO of Amway and senior executive at Yum! Brands and Unilever, brings extensive experience in digital transformation, consumer markets and global operations across three continents. Western Union’s chair highlighted that his background supports the company’s strategic “Beyond” agenda, signaling a continued push to innovate and enhance value for shareholders, customers and partners.

The most recent analyst rating on (WU) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Union stock, see the WU Stock Forecast page.

Western Union Completes $450 Million Notes Offering

On March 9, 2026, Western Union completed a $450 million offering of 4.750% notes due 2029, issued under its existing shelf registration and long-standing indenture structure. The deal, underwritten by a syndicate led by Citigroup, BofA Securities, U.S. Bancorp Investments and Wells Fargo Securities, adds fixed-rate debt to the company’s capital structure, potentially supporting its funding flexibility and longer-term financing needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (WU) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Union stock, see the WU Stock Forecast page.

Western Union Secures New $800 Million Term Loan Facility

On January 9, 2026, Western Union entered into an unsecured delayed draw term loan credit agreement providing access to an $800 million term loan facility with a syndicate of international banks, which allows the company to draw funds from the closing date through July 8, 2026 and potentially increase total commitments up to $1 billion, subject to additional lender commitments. The proceeds may be used for general corporate purposes, including debt refinancing and permitted acquisitions, and the facility includes customary financial and operational covenants—such as limits on asset sales, liens, subsidiary indebtedness and dividend restrictions, plus an interest coverage ratio requirement—with interest and ticking fees set on a ratings-based sliding scale and a final maturity three years after the initial funding date, reinforcing Western Union’s balance-sheet flexibility and funding options.

The most recent analyst rating on (WU) stock is a Sell with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Union stock, see the WU Stock Forecast page.