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Mastercard (MA)
NYSE:MA
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Mastercard (MA) AI Stock Analysis

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MA

Mastercard

(NYSE:MA)

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Outperform 81 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$658.00
▲(16.43% Upside)
Mastercard's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the stock score. The company's robust profitability, cash flow generation, and strategic partnerships support its growth trajectory. While technical analysis indicates mixed signals, and valuation suggests a high P/E ratio, the company's strong fundamentals and positive outlook mitigate these concerns.
Positive Factors
Strategic Partnerships
These partnerships enhance Mastercard's market presence and service offerings, potentially driving long-term revenue growth and customer loyalty.
Cash Flow Generation
Strong cash flow generation supports Mastercard's ability to reinvest in growth initiatives, pay down debt, and return capital to shareholders.
Innovation in Digital Payments
Continuous innovation in digital payments strengthens Mastercard's competitive edge and aligns with the shift towards cashless transactions.
Negative Factors
High Debt-to-Equity Ratio
A high debt-to-equity ratio can limit financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns, impacting long-term stability.
Regulatory Challenges
Regulatory challenges could lead to increased tax liabilities, affecting profitability and requiring strategic adjustments to comply with new regulations.
Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty
Geopolitical and economic uncertainties can impact consumer spending and cross-border transactions, posing risks to Mastercard's growth trajectory.

Mastercard (MA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Mastercard Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMastercard Incorporated is a global technology company in the payments industry, headquartered in Purchase, New York. It operates in the financial services sector, primarily providing payment processing services, technology, and solutions to consumers, businesses, and financial institutions. Mastercard's core products include credit, debit, and prepaid cards, along with digital payment services that facilitate secure transactions across various channels, including online and in-person payments.
How the Company Makes MoneyMastercard generates revenue primarily through transaction processing fees, which are charged to financial institutions and merchants for services related to payment processing. The company earns a fee for each transaction processed on its network, which includes both card-based and digital payments. Additionally, Mastercard generates revenue from value-added services such as fraud detection, data analytics, and consulting services. Strategic partnerships with banks, retailers, and technology companies also contribute to its earnings by expanding its reach and enhancing its service offerings. Furthermore, Mastercard's focus on innovation in digital payments and the growth of e-commerce have bolstered its revenue streams, especially as consumers increasingly shift towards cashless transactions.

Mastercard Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Gross Dollar Volume
Gross Dollar Volume
Measures the total dollar value of transactions processed, reflecting the scale of Mastercard’s operations and its ability to capture consumer spending.
Chart InsightsMastercard's Gross Dollar Volume has shown a robust upward trajectory, reaching new highs in 2025. This growth is underpinned by strategic partnerships and expansions, as highlighted in the latest earnings call. The company reported a 16% increase in net revenues, driven by a 15% rise in cross-border volumes and a 22% boost in value-added services. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, Mastercard's diversified business model and strong consumer spending outlook support continued growth, with a focus on expanding partnerships and services like those with American Airlines and PayPal.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Mastercard Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial results and significant growth in partnerships and value-added services. However, it also pointed out challenges such as portfolio lapping, geopolitical uncertainties, and regulatory issues. Despite these, the overall outlook remains positive due to diversified business strategies and continued innovation.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Net revenues increased by 16% and adjusted net income rose by 12% on a non-GAAP currency-neutral basis compared to last year. This exceeded expectations and was underpinned by a diversified business model and strategic execution.
Expansion of Key Partnerships
Mastercard extended its exclusive partnership with American Airlines and expanded its relationship with Uber. They also signed new agreements with PayPal in the U.S., U.K., and Germany.
Growth in Value-Added Services
Value Added Services & Solutions net revenue increased by 22%, driven by consumer acquisition and engagement services, security solutions, and digital authentication.
Successful Product Deployment
Mastercard launched innovative solutions like Mastercard One credential worldwide and partnered with major B2B platforms to expand virtual card technology.
Increase in Cross-Border Volume
Cross-border volume increased by 15%, with continued growth in both travel and non-travel related cross-border spending.
Negative Updates
Impact of Portfolio Lapping
Lapping of portfolios such as Citizens and Wells Fargo small business credit in the U.S. affected growth metrics, which will continue into the next quarters.
Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty
Macroeconomic uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts and policy shifts, remain a concern, potentially affecting future performance.
Challenges in Specific Markets
Moderation in cross-border travel growth was noted in select Middle East and Africa markets due to tougher comps and geopolitical conflicts.
Regulatory Challenges
Pillar 2 tax considerations pose potential challenges, requiring legislative changes across multiple jurisdictions to avoid increased tax liabilities.
Company Guidance
During the Mastercard Q2 2025 earnings call, the company reported strong financial performance, with net revenues up 16% and adjusted net income increasing by 12% year-over-year on a non-GAAP currency-neutral basis. The call highlighted Mastercard's ongoing success with key partnerships and product launches, such as extending its exclusive partnership with American Airlines and expanding its relationship with Uber. The company also emphasized its strategic focus on leveraging value-added services, including security and digital engagement solutions, to drive growth. Additionally, Mastercard reported a 10% growth in switched transactions and a 15% increase in cross-border volumes, supported by healthy consumer spending, low unemployment, and wage growth outpacing inflation. Looking ahead, Mastercard expects full-year net revenue growth in the low teens range, with operating expenses growing at the low end of a low double-digit range. The company remains optimistic about its growth potential and is committed to executing its strategy in a dynamic macroeconomic environment.

Mastercard Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mastercard exhibits strong financial health with excellent profitability, robust cash flow generation, and a solid growth trajectory. High return on equity and strong cash flow margins offset leverage concerns.
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Mastercard demonstrates a robust income statement with strong profitability metrics. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a Gross Profit Margin of approximately 37.4% and a Net Profit Margin of 44.9%, indicating efficient cost management and high profitability. Revenue growth is impressive, with a year-over-year increase of 7.4% from 2024 to TTM, showcasing a positive growth trajectory. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 55.8% and 57.7% respectively, reflecting solid operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 2.41, which is fairly high and represents potential leverage risk. However, the Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 172.5%, signifying strong returns to shareholders. The Equity Ratio stands at 15.3%, indicating that a significant portion of assets is financed by equity, which is relatively low and suggests a reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
95
Very Positive
Cash flow analysis shows exceptional performance with a strong Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 14.6% from 2024 to TTM. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is healthy at 1.25, indicating efficient conversion of income into cash. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is robust at 1.21, showcasing the company's ability to generate free cash flow relative to its net income, supporting its high liquidity and reinvestment capabilities.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue30.24B28.17B25.10B22.24B18.88B15.30B
Gross Profit23.15B21.49B19.08B16.97B14.39B11.51B
EBITDA18.19B16.80B15.01B12.95B11.46B8.72B
Net Income13.59B12.87B11.20B9.93B8.69B6.41B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets51.43B48.08B42.45B38.72B37.67B33.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.37B8.77B9.18B7.41B7.89B10.60B
Total Debt18.97B18.23B15.68B14.02B13.90B12.67B
Total Liabilities43.56B41.57B35.45B32.35B30.26B27.07B
Stockholders Equity7.87B6.49B6.93B6.30B7.31B6.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow16.39B14.31B11.61B10.10B8.65B6.52B
Operating Cash Flow16.95B14.78B11.98B11.20B9.46B7.22B
Investing Cash Flow-3.50B-3.40B-1.35B-1.47B-5.27B-1.88B
Financing Cash Flow-10.89B-10.84B-9.49B-10.33B-6.55B-2.15B

Mastercard Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price565.13
Price Trends
50DMA
578.02
Negative
100DMA
572.80
Negative
200DMA
554.21
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.03
Positive
RSI
37.86
Neutral
STOCH
6.91
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 565.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 583.67, below the 50-day MA of 578.02, and above the 200-day MA of 554.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.91 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MA.

Mastercard Risk Analysis

Mastercard disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mastercard reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Mastercard Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$510.88B38.27177.90%0.52%14.55%13.25%
79
Outperform
237.77B23.9931.40%0.89%8.03%6.26%
79
Outperform
64.30B14.4123.16%4.05%13.85%
78
Outperform
649.98B33.3052.33%0.70%11.38%7.43%
78
Outperform
27.73B9.0621.10%1.48%-3.16%14.60%
69
Neutral
143.28B115.371.07%10.51%-81.56%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MA
Mastercard
565.13
74.16
15.10%
AXP
American Express
341.68
73.39
27.35%
COF
Capital One Financial
224.05
76.12
51.46%
V
Visa
337.37
64.34
23.57%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
74.54
25.55
52.15%
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
67.30
-10.73
-13.75%

Mastercard Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mastercard Approves Amendments at Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 26, 2025

On June 24, 2025, Mastercard held its annual stockholders meeting where several amendments to its Certificate of Incorporation were approved. These changes, effective June 25, 2025, include limiting officer liability, eliminating Industry Directors, and implementing other modifications. Additionally, the stockholders elected directors for a one-year term and approved executive compensation and the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor. However, proposals for a racial equity audit and an affirmative action risks report were not approved.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 24, 2025