Mastercard (MA)
NYSE:MA
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Mastercard
(NYSE:MA)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$553.00
▲(10.27% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (elite margins and strong cash generation) and a positive earnings outlook with diversified growth drivers. These strengths are tempered by mixed technical trends (negative MACD and trading below key moving averages) and a relatively expensive valuation (P/E ~33) with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Diversified fee-based business model
Mastercard's core model charges fees across multiple payment-related services (transaction processing, cross-border, data analytics, VAS and partner economics). This diversified, scale‑driven fee structure creates durable, high‑margin revenue that compounds with payment volume growth and network adoption.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage reduces financial flexibility
A debt-to-equity ratio near 2–3x constrains balance sheet optionality versus peers. Higher leverage raises interest expense sensitivity and limits ability to pursue large inorganic opportunities or absorb shocks from regulatory or macro stress, making capital allocation more trade‑off driven over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified fee-based business model
Mastercard's core model charges fees across multiple payment-related services (transaction processing, cross-border, data analytics, VAS and partner economics). This diversified, scale‑driven fee structure creates durable, high‑margin revenue that compounds with payment volume growth and network adoption.
Read all positive factors
Mastercard (MA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$447.24B
Dividend Yield0.54%
Average Volume (3M)3.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.5
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth15.67%
EPS Growth18.22%
CountryUS
Employees35,300
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.76
Shares Outstanding885,216,400
10 Day Avg. Volume3,698,333
30 Day Avg. Volume3,705,695
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.81
Price to Book (P/B)66.19
Price to Sales (P/S)15.62
P/FCF Ratio30.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$652.26Price Target Upside30.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering28
EPS Forecast (FY)19.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$37.00B
Mastercard Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. It facilitates the processing of payment transactions, including authorization...
How the Company Makes Money
Mastercard primarily makes money by charging fees to participants in its payments ecosystem for enabling and processing electronic payment transactions on its network and by selling related services. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Dome...
Mastercard Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Dollar Volume
Measures the total dollar value of transactions processed, reflecting the scale of Mastercard’s operations and its ability to capture consumer spending.
Measures the total dollar value of transactions processed, reflecting the scale of Mastercard’s operations and its ability to capture consumer spending.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMastercard Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: robust top-line growth (net revenue +15% in Q4), healthy volume and cross-border trends, rapid adoption of digital payments (contactless, tokenization), significant VAS expansion (21% full-year growth) and meaningful Move platform traction (>35% transaction growth). Profitability and capital return metrics were solid (operating income +17%, EPS +17–20%, large buybacks). Offsetting factors include near-term impacts from the Capital One debit migration, FX volatility sensitivity, higher operating expenses (and a disclosed $200M restructuring charge), tougher comps causing some sequential deceleration, and regulatory risks. On balance, the positives — diverse growth drivers, strong service momentum, strategic customer wins, and an optimistic 2026 guidance framework — materially outweigh the manageable headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net revenues up 15% in Q4 2025 (non-GAAP, currency-neutral). Payment Network net revenue increased 9% in Q4. Full-year value-added services & solutions (VAS) net revenue grew 21% (18% excluding acquisitions).
Negative Updates
U.S. Debit Migration Impact
U.S. GDV rose only 4% in Q4 (credit +6%, debit +2%). U.S. switched volume growth declined primarily due to the ongoing migration/roll-off of the Capital One debit portfolio, which impacted sequential U.S. volume metrics.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net revenues up 15% in Q4 2025 (non-GAAP, currency-neutral). Payment Network net revenue increased 9% in Q4. Full-year value-added services & solutions (VAS) net revenue grew 21% (18% excluding acquisitions).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mastercard guided FY2026 net revenues to grow at the high end of a low‑double‑digit range on a currency‑neutral, inorganic‑adjusted basis with an expected FX tailwind of ~1.0–1.5 ppt for the year; full‑year adjusted operating expenses are expected to grow at the low end of a low‑double‑digit range with an FX headwind of ~0.5–1.0 ppt. For Q1 2026 the company expects net‑revenue growth at the low end of a low‑double‑digit range (currency‑neutral, ex‑inorganic) with an FX tailwind of ~3.5–4.0 ppt, Q1 operating‑expense growth in the high end of high‑single‑digits with an FX headwind of ~2.5 ppt, a one‑time restructuring charge of ~ $200M (impacts ~4% of FTEs; excluded from non‑GAAP), Q1 other income/expense of ~$(50)M (including government grant benefits), and non‑GAAP tax rates of ~19–20% for Q1 and ~20–21% for the full year; management also said contra/rebates in Q1 should be flat to slightly down sequentially.Mastercard Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 32.79B | 28.17B | 25.10B | 22.24B | 18.88B |
| Gross Profit | 27.36B | 21.49B | 19.08B | 16.97B | 14.39B |
| EBITDA | 20.19B | 16.80B | 15.01B | 12.95B | 11.46B |
| Net Income | 14.97B | 12.87B | 11.20B | 9.93B | 8.69B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 54.16B | 48.08B | 42.45B | 38.72B | 37.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.46B | 8.77B | 9.18B | 7.41B | 7.89B |
| Total Debt | 19.00B | 18.23B | 15.68B | 14.02B | 13.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 46.41B | 41.57B | 35.45B | 32.35B | 30.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.74B | 6.49B | 6.93B | 6.30B | 7.31B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.91B | 14.31B | 11.61B | 10.10B | 8.65B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.40B | 14.78B | 11.98B | 11.20B | 9.46B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.36B | -3.40B | -1.35B | -1.47B | -5.27B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -14.18B | -10.84B | -9.49B | -10.33B | -6.55B |
Mastercard Technical Analysis
Neutral
501.50
Price Trends
516.66
Negative
535.55
Negative
551.68
Negative
Market Momentum
-6.32
Negative
48.16
Neutral
57.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 501.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 499.50, below the 50-day MA of 516.66, and below the 200-day MA of 551.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -6.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MA.
Mastercard Risk Analysis
Mastercard disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mastercard reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mastercard Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $578.15B | 28.66 | 54.22% | 0.69% | 11.34% | 2.76% | |
74 Outperform | $447.24B | 31.53 | 198.42% | 0.54% | 15.67% | 18.22% | |
68 Neutral | $209.92B | 23.73 | 33.49% | 0.84% | 8.14% | 9.55% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $24.07B | 8.41 | 21.09% | 1.34% | -6.38% | 19.65% | |
66 Neutral | $41.87B | 10.70 | 25.87% | ― | 4.50% | 19.71% | |
57 Neutral | $114.57B | 53.42 | 2.44% | 1.05% | 19.39% | -77.61% |
* Financial Sector Average
MA
Mastercard
501.50
-11.78
-2.30%
AXP
American Express
305.73
46.09
17.75%
COF
Capital One Financial
184.21
10.33
5.94%
V
Visa
303.33
-26.63
-8.07%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
69.26
19.68
39.70%
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
45.48
-18.13
-28.50%
Mastercard Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Mastercard boosts executive compensation for key senior leaders
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Mastercard’s board-level Human Resources and Compensation Committee approved increases to base salary and target annual incentive bonus opportunities for two of the company’s Named Executive Officers, effective Mar...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.