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Mastercard
(NYSE:MA)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$569.00
▲(9.15% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability and strong cash generation) and a constructive earnings outlook with ongoing buybacks. Offsetting factors are mixed technical momentum (negative MACD and trading below key longer-term averages) and a premium valuation with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Mastercard's step-up in operating cash flow and large, stable free cash flow provide durable capacity to fund R&D, buybacks, and M&A without relying on dilutive equity. High cash generation supports long-term investment in network scale and product development while cushioning cyclical headwinds.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage / thin equity base
A lean equity base with multi‑year elevated leverage tightens financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to higher rates or funding stress. Heavy buybacks and sizable debt increase operating risk and could constrain strategic optionality or push higher financing costs if capital markets shift unfavorably over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Mastercard's step-up in operating cash flow and large, stable free cash flow provide durable capacity to fund R&D, buybacks, and M&A without relying on dilutive equity. High cash generation supports long-term investment in network scale and product development while cushioning cyclical headwinds.
Read all positive factors
Mastercard Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Dollar Volume
Measures the total dollar value of transactions processed, reflecting the scale of Mastercard’s operations and its ability to capture consumer spending.
Measures the total dollar value of transactions processed, reflecting the scale of Mastercard’s operations and its ability to capture consumer spending.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMastercard (MA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$453.81B
Dividend Yield0.54%
Average Volume (3M)3.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.6
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth17.06%
EPS Growth21.18%
CountryUS
Employees35,300
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)17.30
Shares Outstanding877,036,250
10 Day Avg. Volume3,906,073
30 Day Avg. Volume3,785,933
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.83
Price to Book (P/B)66.19
Price to Sales (P/S)15.62
P/FCF Ratio30.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.86
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$633.78Price Target Upside21.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering23
EPS Forecast (FY)19.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$37.09B
Mastercard Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mastercard Incorporated is a global technology firm specializing in providing transaction processing and a wide array of payment solutions, operating across the United States and internationally. Its core business centers on enabling the entire pa...
How the Company Makes Money
Mastercard primarily makes money by charging fees to participants in its payments ecosystem for enabling and processing electronic payment transactions on its network and by selling related services. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Dome...
Mastercard Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented clear topline and profitability momentum with multiple growth engines performing well: 12% net revenue growth, 15% net income growth, strong VAS growth (+18%), healthy GDV (+7%) and cross-border (+13%). Strategic investments and product innovations (Agent Pay, verifiable intent, BVNK, Recorded Future integration) and accelerated buybacks underscore confidence. Near-term headwinds are largely external — geopolitical conflict affecting cross-border travel, holiday timing, portfolio migrations and some FX/one-time expense items — but management framed these as temporary and offset by diversification, product demand and strong execution. Given the breadth and magnitude of positive operating and strategic metrics versus transitory external challenges, the overall tone is constructive.Positive Updates
Top-Line and Profitability Growth
Net revenue rose 12% year-over-year (non-GAAP, currency-neutral) and net income increased 15% YoY. EPS was $4.60, up 18% YoY (including a $0.10 contribution from share repurchases). Operating income grew 13% and operating expenses increased 9%.
Negative Updates
Geopolitical Headwinds Impacting Cross-Border Travel
Conflict in the Middle East reduced cross-border travel beginning in March and accelerated declines into early April. Management expects the biggest headwind in Q2 and modeled a base case where the conflict ends in Q2 with a progressive recovery through H2. Cross-border travel sequentially declined and impacted short-term outlook.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line and Profitability Growth
Net revenue rose 12% year-over-year (non-GAAP, currency-neutral) and net income increased 15% YoY. EPS was $4.60, up 18% YoY (including a $0.10 contribution from share repurchases). Operating income grew 13% and operating expenses increased 9%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 2026 net‑revenue growth at the low end of the low‑double‑digit range on a currency‑neutral, non‑GAAP basis (ex‑inorganic), noting that absent the assumed Middle East conflict impact Q2 would have been roughly in line with Q1 (+12%); the base case assumes the conflict ends in Q2 with the largest headwind in Q2 and progressive recovery through H2. They expect Q2 operating‑expense growth also at the low end of the low‑double‑digit range (currency‑neutral, ex‑inorganic), a 0–1 ppt benefit from a planned disposition, an estimated ~1–2 ppt FX tailwind to net revenue and ~0–1 ppt FX headwind to operating expenses, and other income/(expense) of roughly $150 million (excluding equity gains/losses). For full‑year 2026 they reiterate net‑revenue growth at the high end of the low‑double‑digit range (currency‑neutral, ex‑inorganic) with about a 1.5 ppt FX tailwind, expect operating expense growth in the low‑double‑digit range with a 0.5–1 ppt disposition tailwind and a 0.5–1 ppt FX headwind, and a non‑GAAP tax rate of 20–21% for Q2 and the year; they also noted accelerated buybacks of $4.0B in Q1 plus $1.7B through April 27 and that Q1 results were net revenue +12%, net income +15% and EPS $4.60 (including a $0.10 benefit from repurchases).Mastercard Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 33.94B | 32.79B | 28.17B | 25.10B | 22.24B | 18.88B |
| Gross Profit | 28.16B | 27.36B | 21.49B | 19.08B | 16.97B | 14.39B |
| EBITDA | 21.23B | 20.19B | 16.80B | 15.01B | 12.95B | 11.46B |
| Net Income | 15.57B | 14.97B | 12.87B | 11.20B | 9.93B | 8.69B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 52.45B | 54.16B | 48.08B | 42.45B | 38.72B | 37.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.22B | 10.90B | 8.77B | 9.18B | 7.41B | 7.89B |
| Total Debt | 18.96B | 19.00B | 18.23B | 15.68B | 14.02B | 13.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 45.73B | 46.41B | 41.57B | 35.45B | 32.35B | 30.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.72B | 7.74B | 6.49B | 6.93B | 6.30B | 7.31B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 17.72B | 16.91B | 14.31B | 11.61B | 10.10B | 8.65B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 18.20B | 17.40B | 14.78B | 11.98B | 11.20B | 9.46B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.38B | -1.36B | -3.40B | -1.35B | -1.47B | -5.27B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.20B | -14.18B | -10.84B | -9.49B | -10.33B | -6.55B |
Mastercard Technical Analysis
Positive
521.30
Price Trends
497.11
Positive
504.66
Negative
531.26
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.71
Negative
54.23
Neutral
50.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 521.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 489.35, above the 50-day MA of 497.11, and below the 200-day MA of 531.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MA.
Mastercard Risk Analysis
Mastercard disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mastercard reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mastercard Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $646.42B | 29.89 | 58.90% | 0.69% | 14.37% | 13.59% | |
77 Outperform | $453.81B | 29.59 | 206.12% | 0.54% | 17.06% | 21.18% | |
77 Outperform | $25.58B | 7.81 | 21.41% | 1.34% | -3.18% | 32.55% | |
75 Outperform | $230.80B | 21.12 | 33.95% | 0.84% | 9.41% | 12.00% | |
70 Outperform | $123.59B | 70.62 | 2.86% | 1.05% | 39.21% | -76.14% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $38.09B | 8.05 | 25.08% | ― | 6.97% | 19.31% |
* Financial Sector Average
MA
Mastercard
513.60
-47.69
-8.50%
AXP
American Express
338.25
19.07
5.97%
COF
Capital One Financial
200.62
-13.98
-6.51%
V
Visa
343.09
-9.59
-2.72%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
76.05
9.00
13.42%
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
43.18
-31.46
-42.15%
Mastercard Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mastercard Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor Slate
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Mastercard stockholders elected 11 directors, including CEO Michael Miebach, to one-year terms at the company’s annual meeting, with each nominee receiving strong majority support, and they also gave broad backing to the fi...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mastercard Raises $5 Billion Through Multi-Tranche Debt Offering
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
On June 8, 2026, Mastercard completed a multi-tranche debt offering totaling $5 billion, including floating rate notes due 2028 and fixed-rate notes maturing between 2028 and 2036 with coupons ranging from 4.325% to 5.000%. The issuance, conducted...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Mastercard Announces Major Leadership Reshuffle and CFO Change
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Mastercard announced a wide-ranging leadership reshuffle effective August 3, 2026, aimed at sharpening execution, unifying its global go-to-market structure and deepening customer focus to support continued growth. Ling Hai, curre...
Executive/Board Changes
Mastercard Announces Leadership Changes in Key Finance Roles
Neutral
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Mastercard announced that Corporate Controller and principal accounting officer Sandra Arkell will become the company’s Chief Audit Executive, effective August 3, 2026, and will step down from her current position on that dat...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.