American Express (AXP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $263.27B
• Dividend Yield: 0.84%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.67M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: 8.14%
• EPS Growth: 9.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 75,100
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 4.14
• Shares Outstanding: 688,851,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,231,576
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,671,148
• PEG Ratio: 0.91
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.85
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.44
• 1Y Price Target: $356.94
• Price Target Upside: -6.61% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $427.00 ▲(11.72% Upside)

American Express's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the stock score. The company's robust revenue growth, profitability, and strategic focus on premium products and international markets are key strengths. Technical analysis supports a positive trend, although valuation metrics suggest the stock may be slightly overvalued. Overall, the company's raised guidance and successful product launches underscore its growth potential.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for American Express's products and services, supporting long-term expansion and market presence.

Product Innovation

Successful product innovation enhances customer engagement and competitive positioning, driving future growth and market differentiation.

International Market Expansion

Growth in international markets expands American Express's global footprint, diversifying revenue sources and reducing reliance on domestic markets.

Negative Factors

Rising Loan Write-Off Rates

Increasing loan write-off rates may signal deteriorating credit quality, potentially impacting profitability and financial stability.

Leadership Transition

Leadership changes can disrupt strategic continuity and execution, affecting long-term growth and operational stability.

Immediate Benefit Cost Pressure

Immediate cost pressures can strain margins and limit investment capacity, potentially affecting long-term profitability.

American Express Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides charge and credit payment card products, and travel-related services worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Global Consumer Services Group, Global Commercial Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. Its products and services include payment and financing products; network services; accounts payable expense management products and services; and travel and lifestyle services. The company's products and services also comprise merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, point-of-sale marketing, and information products and services for merchants; and fraud prevention services, as well as the design and operation of customer loyalty programs. It sells its products and services to consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies, and large corporations through mobile and online applications, third-party vendors and business partners, direct mail, telephone, in-house sales teams, and direct response advertising. American Express Company was founded in 1850 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

American Express generates revenue through several key sources. The primary revenue stream is from cardmember fees, which include annual fees charged for premium credit and charge cards. Additionally, the company earns significant income from merchant fees, which are transaction fees charged to businesses for processing card payments. Another major source of revenue is interest income from cardholders who carry a balance on their credit cards. American Express also derives revenue from travel-related services, including booking fees and commissions from travel bookings made through its platforms. Partnerships with airlines, hotels, and other service providers enhance its product offerings and customer value. Furthermore, the company invests in technology and data analytics, which help in optimizing its services and enhancing customer engagement, contributing to its overall earnings.

American Express Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Express exhibits strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and robust profitability metrics. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage levels, and cash flow generation is impressive, supporting future growth initiatives. However, slight declines in certain profitability and cash flow ratios suggest areas for potential improvement.

Income Statement

American Express demonstrates strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 2.31%. The company maintains robust profitability with a gross profit margin of 82.53% and a net profit margin of 13.20%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 16.71% and 18.95%, respectively, indicating efficient operational management. However, the slight decline in net profit margin from the previous year suggests potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid equity base with a return on equity of 32.87%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.85, indicating a moderate level of leverage that is typical for the industry but warrants monitoring. The equity ratio stands at 10.89%, suggesting a stable capital structure, although slightly lower than ideal.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 70.71%, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.79, indicating efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 84.73% underscores the company's ability to generate cash relative to its net income, although slightly lower than the previous year.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	78.64B	74.20B	67.36B	55.63B	44.43B	38.34B
Gross Profit	65.29B	60.76B	55.59B	50.68B	44.57B	31.51B
EBITDA	15.21B	14.57B	12.16B	11.21B	12.38B	5.84B
Net Income	10.54B	10.13B	8.37B	7.51B	8.06B	3.13B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	297.55B	271.46B	261.11B	228.35B	188.55B	191.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	54.71B	41.51B	48.65B	38.39B	24.50B	54.47B
Total Debt	59.23B	51.09B	49.16B	43.92B	40.92B	44.83B
Total Liabilities	265.13B	241.20B	233.05B	203.64B	166.37B	168.38B
Stockholders Equity	32.42B	30.26B	28.06B	24.71B	22.18B	22.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	18.94B	12.14B	17.00B	19.22B	13.10B	4.11B
Operating Cash Flow	21.14B	14.05B	18.56B	21.08B	14.64B	5.59B
Investing Cash Flow	-25.19B	-24.40B	-24.43B	-33.69B	-10.53B	11.63B
Financing Cash Flow	10.59B	4.44B	18.38B	24.51B	-14.93B	-9.07B

American Express Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 382.19
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 382.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 372.29, above the 50-day MA of 361.66, and above the 200-day MA of 313.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXP.

American Express Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AXP	80 Outperform	$263.27B	25.66	33.70%	0.84%	8.14%	9.55%
PYPL	76 Outperform	$55.59B	11.92	24.36%	―	4.50%	19.71%
MA	75 Outperform	$517.56B	36.86	185.74%	0.54%	15.67%	18.22%
SYF	72 Outperform	$30.82B	9.35	21.64%	1.34%	-6.38%	19.65%
COF	71 Outperform	$157.41B	105.01	1.53%	1.05%	19.39%	-77.61%
V	70 Outperform	$675.75B	34.99	51.54%	0.69%	11.34%	2.76%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

American Express Corporate Events

American Express Reports November Loan Write-Off Rates

American Express reported delinquency and write-off statistics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member loans for the months ending November 30, October 31, and September 30, 2025. The data indicates stable delinquency rates but a slight increase in net write-off rates for both consumer and small business loans over the period. These statistics provide additional insights beyond the data reported by the American Express Credit Account Master Trust, reflecting variability due to factors such as loan mix and calculation methods.

American Express Reports October Loan Write-Off Rates

American Express reported delinquency and write-off statistics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member loans for the months ending October 31, September 30, and August 31, 2025. The data shows a slight increase in the net write-off rate for U.S. Consumer loans from 1.9% in September to 2.2% in October, while U.S. Small Business loans saw a decrease from 2.7% in August to 2.6% in October. These statistics provide additional insights beyond the data reported by the American Express Credit Account Master Trust, highlighting differences in loan characteristics and performance metrics.

American Express Issues $2 Billion Fixed-Rate Notes

On October 24, 2025, American Express issued $2 billion in 4.804% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes due in 2036. This issuance is part of the company’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its liquidity and market position.

American Express Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance

On October 17, 2025, American Express reported a strong financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, with a record revenue of $18.4 billion, marking an 11% increase from the previous year. The company’s earnings per share rose by 19% to $4.14, driven by increased card member spending and successful product launches, including the refreshed U.S. Consumer and Business Platinum Cards. The company has raised its full-year guidance, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects and continued execution of its product refresh strategy.

American Express Reports Stable Loan Delinquency Rates

American Express has released its delinquency and write-off statistics for U.S. Consumer and Small Business Card Member loans for the months ending September 30, August 31, and July 31, 2025. The data indicates a stable delinquency rate for both consumer and small business loans, with a slight decrease in the net write-off rate for small business loans over the three-month period. These statistics provide additional insight into the company’s credit performance, highlighting the variability in loan characteristics and the impact of external factors such as seasonality and reporting mechanics.

American Express Announces Vice Chairman’s Retirement

On September 29, 2025, American Express announced the upcoming retirement of Vice Chairman Douglas E. Buckminster, effective March 2026. Buckminster, who has been with the company for nearly 40 years, has significantly contributed to the company’s growth and strategic direction, particularly in expanding its global premium Consumer Card Member base and driving revenue growth. His leadership and innovative strategies have left a lasting impact on the company’s operations and market positioning.