American Express (AXP)
NYSE:AXP
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American Express
(NYSE:AXP)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$362.00
â–²(9.14% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/08/26
The score is led by strong financial quality (profitability/ROE and solid earnings quality) and a positive earnings call with reaffirmed growth/EPS guidance. Offsetting the outlook are mixed technicals (below longer-term moving averages) and some fundamental watch items including recent margin/FCF softness and elevated leverage; valuation is reasonable but the dividend yield is modest.
Positive Factors
Closed‑loop payments model
American Express's closed‑loop model lets it act as both issuer and network, capturing both merchant discount and cardholder economics. This creates durable margins, proprietary transaction data, and stronger customer relationships that support fee growth and differentiated premium offerings over time.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and funding sensitivity
Higher-than-normal debt relative to equity increases exposure to rising funding costs and market dislocations. For a credit‑cycle sensitive lender/issuer, elevated leverage reduces financial flexibility, raises refinancing risk, and can amplify earnings volatility if macro or rates move against the company.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Closed‑loop payments model
American Express's closed‑loop model lets it act as both issuer and network, capturing both merchant discount and cardholder economics. This creates durable margins, proprietary transaction data, and stronger customer relationships that support fee growth and differentiated premium offerings over time.
Read all positive factors
American Express (AXP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$217.45B
Dividend Yield0.84%
Average Volume (3M)3.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.5
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth9.41%
EPS Growth12.00%
CountryUS
Employees75,100
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)16.04
Shares Outstanding682,326,400
10 Day Avg. Volume2,137,597
30 Day Avg. Volume3,159,625
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.43
Price to Book (P/B)7.68
Price to Sales (P/S)3.20
P/FCF Ratio16.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.23
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$361.71Price Target Upside9.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)17.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$79.33B
American Express Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides charge and credit payment card products, and travel-related services worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Global Consumer Services Group, Global Commercial Servi...
How the Company Makes Money
American Express makes money through a combination of payments-related fees and lending-related income, supported by its closed-loop model that connects card members and merchants.
1) Card member lending revenue (interest and related fees): Ameri...
American Express Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability for American Express.
Breaks down revenue by business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability for American Express.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican Express Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented predominantly positive operational and financial momentum: double-digit revenue growth (11%), meaningful EPS upside (+18% YoY), robust card member spending and strong international performance, along with continued excellent credit metrics and healthy capital returns. Management is proactively reinvesting Q1 outperformance into marketing and technology (including AI initiatives and a sizable commercial product rollout), which raises near-term expense ratios but is positioned to support sustainable long-term growth. The few negatives (temporary airline softness from geopolitical events, modest near-term drag from held-for-sale co-brand portfolios, and the reinvestment-driven expense step-up) were acknowledged as manageable by management and not expected to materially impair results this year.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and Earnings Growth
Revenue grew 11% (10% FX-adjusted) in Q1 and diluted EPS was $4.28, up 18% year-over-year. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of 9%–10% revenue growth and EPS of $17.30–$17.90.
Negative Updates
Airline Spending Softness and Travel Disruption
Airline spending growth slowed late in March into April (airline spend noted at +8% earlier), driven by travel disruptions from the Middle East conflict and a spike in refund volumes. Management indicated the impact was visible but not material to overall billed business.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and Earnings Growth
Revenue grew 11% (10% FX-adjusted) in Q1 and diluted EPS was $4.28, up 18% year-over-year. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of 9%–10% revenue growth and EPS of $17.30–$17.90.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
American Express reaffirmed its full‑year 2026 guidance—revenue growth of 9–10% and EPS of $17.30–$17.90—after a strong Q1 (revenue +11% / +10% FX‑adjusted; card member spending +10% / +9% FX‑adjusted; EPS $4.28, +18% YoY). Management said it will increase marketing and technology investments while maintaining capital returns (Q1 capital returned $2.3B including $0.7B dividends and $1.7B buybacks) and a strong ROE (35% this quarter). Key financials cited alongside the guidance include Q1 NII +12% FX‑adjusted vs. total balances +7% FX‑adjusted, net card fees +16% FX‑adjusted, provision expense $1.3B with a $24M reserve release, high‑yield savings/CD balances +9% YoY, Q1 marketing $1.5B (flat YoY) but marketing now expected to grow mid‑single digits for the year, and a projected full‑year VCE‑to‑revenue ratio around 44% (Q1 44.7%); management noted only a low single‑digit near‑term drag to SME spend from the co‑brand exits and does not expect a material change to its capital management approach.American Express Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 82.41B | 80.46B | 74.20B | 67.36B | 55.63B | 44.43B |
| Gross Profit | 68.81B | 66.97B | 60.76B | 55.59B | 50.68B | 44.57B |
| EBITDA | 18.41B | 15.57B | 14.57B | 12.16B | 11.21B | 12.38B |
| Net Income | 11.22B | 10.83B | 10.13B | 8.37B | 7.51B | 8.06B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 308.89B | 300.05B | 271.46B | 261.11B | 228.35B | 188.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 54.05B | 48.53B | 41.74B | 48.65B | 38.39B | 24.50B |
| Total Debt | 60.44B | 57.76B | 51.09B | 49.16B | 43.92B | 40.92B |
| Total Liabilities | 274.90B | 266.58B | 241.20B | 233.05B | 203.64B | 166.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 33.99B | 33.47B | 30.26B | 28.06B | 24.71B | 22.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.32B | 16.00B | 12.14B | 17.00B | 19.22B | 13.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.47B | 18.43B | 14.05B | 18.56B | 21.08B | 14.64B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -26.21B | -22.89B | -24.40B | -24.43B | -33.69B | -10.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 9.54B | 11.21B | 4.44B | 18.38B | 24.51B | -14.93B |
American Express Technical Analysis
Positive
331.69
Price Trends
317.08
Positive
341.70
Negative
334.18
Negative
Market Momentum
4.47
Negative
66.00
Neutral
83.47
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 331.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 309.10, above the 50-day MA of 317.08, and below the 200-day MA of 334.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXP.
American Express Risk Analysis
American Express disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Express reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Fraudulent activity associated with our products and services could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations. Q4, 2025
American Express Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $605.33B | 24.01 | 58.90% | 0.69% | 14.37% | 13.59% | |
77 Outperform | $24.93B | 7.23 | 21.41% | 1.34% | -3.18% | 32.55% | |
75 Outperform | $217.45B | 17.46 | 33.95% | 0.84% | 9.41% | 12.00% | |
75 Outperform | $442.85B | 28.67 | 206.12% | 0.54% | 17.06% | 21.18% | |
71 Outperform | $40.77B | 9.28 | 25.08% | ― | 6.97% | 19.31% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $119.22B | 13.06 | 2.86% | 1.05% | 39.30% | -76.14% |
* Financial Sector Average
AXP
American Express
318.69
37.13
13.19%
COF
Capital One Financial
192.59
5.94
3.18%
MA
Mastercard
500.94
-64.36
-11.39%
V
Visa
321.28
-28.64
-8.18%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
74.00
19.28
35.24%
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
46.22
-23.67
-33.86%
American Express Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
American Express Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 7, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on May 5, 2026, American Express reported that all 13 director nominees were elected with majority support, including Chairman and CEO Stephen J. Squeri, underscoring broad investor backing for the curren...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
American Express Issues New Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes
Positive
May 4, 2026
American Express Company, a major player in global payments and financial services, continues to rely on capital markets funding through senior unsecured debt to support its lending and card operations. Its strategy includes issuing fixed and floa...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
American Express to Divest Stake in Global Business Travel
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, American Express said it will divest its roughly 30% stake in Global Business Travel Group, Inc. as part of Long Lake and General Catalyst’s agreement to acquire GBTG, a move that underscores its focus on capital efficiency w...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Express Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results, Reaffirms Guidance
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, American Express reported first-quarter 2026 net income of $3.0 billion, up from $2.6 billion a year earlier, with revenue rising 11% to $18.9 billion and EPS climbing 18% to $4.28. Card Member spending grew 10% (9% FX-adjusted)...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Express Reports Stable Credit Quality, Moderate Write-Offs
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
For the three months ended March 31, 2026, American Express reported stable credit quality in its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business card member loans held for investment, with total loans of $129.7 billion and 30‑day delinquency rates st...
Financial Disclosures
American Express Reports Stable Credit Metrics Amid Modest Decline
Neutral
Mar 16, 2026
American Express reported credit metrics for its U.S. consumer and U.S. small business card member loans held for investment for the months ended December 31, 2025, January 31, 2026, and February 28, 2026, showing largely stable delinquency and ne...
Dividends
American Express Announces 16% Increase in Quarterly Dividend
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, American Express announced that its board of directors approved a 16 percent increase in the quarterly dividend on its common shares, raising the payout to $0.95 from $0.82 per share. The increased dividend is scheduled to be pai...
Business Operations and Strategy
American Express Unveils New World Trade Center Headquarters
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, American Express Company announced plans to develop a new headquarters of about 1.95 million square feet at 200 Greenwich Street, on the 2 World Trade Center site in New York City. Construction is slated to begin in the sprin...
Financial Disclosures
American Express Reports Stable January 2026 Credit Metrics
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
American Express reported delinquency and net write-off metrics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business card loans for the months ended January 31, 2026, and December 31 and November 30, 2025, showing relatively stable credit performance acr...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
American Express Boosts Funding With New Debt Issuances
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, American Express Company issued three tranches of senior debt totaling $3 billion, comprising $1.35 billion of 4.009% fixed-to-floating rate notes due 2029, $1 billion of 4.456% fixed-to-floating rate notes due 2032, and $650...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.