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American Express (AXP) AI Stock Analysis

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AXP

American Express

(NYSE:AXP)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$345.00
▲(6.99% Upside)
American Express's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the primary drivers of its score. The company's strategic focus on premium products and international expansion supports a robust outlook. Technical indicators and valuation suggest moderate growth potential, while the absence of significant corporate events limits additional impact.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Billings growth accelerated to 7.2% year-over-year, exceeding expectations and indicating strong business performance.
Market Position
American Express has a well-established position in the growing premium-card market with 25% share.
Product Development
The upcoming Platinum product refresh is expected to boost customer growth and engagement.
Negative Factors
Competition
Despite intensifying competition in the premium card space, management remains confident about the upcoming Platinum refresh.
Cost Management
Operating expenses were higher than expected, driven by increased salaries and professional fees.
Marketing Expenses
If marketing costs remain elevated as variable consumer engagement costs increase, it could impact financial estimates for future years.

American Express (AXP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

American Express Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmerican Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides charge and credit payment card products, and travel-related services worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Global Consumer Services Group, Global Commercial Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. Its products and services include payment and financing products; network services; accounts payable expense management products and services; and travel and lifestyle services. The company's products and services also comprise merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, point-of-sale marketing, and information products and services for merchants; and fraud prevention services, as well as the design and operation of customer loyalty programs. It sells its products and services to consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies, and large corporations through mobile and online applications, third-party vendors and business partners, direct mail, telephone, in-house sales teams, and direct response advertising. American Express Company was founded in 1850 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmerican Express generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is the fee income from cardholder transactions, where it earns a percentage of each transaction made with its cards. Additionally, American Express charges annual fees for its card memberships, particularly for premium cards with various benefits. The company also makes money through interest charges on outstanding balances carried by cardholders. Other significant revenue streams include merchant fees charged to businesses that accept American Express cards, as well as income from travel and lifestyle services. Partnerships with various merchants and loyalty programs enhance customer engagement, driving higher transaction volumes and contributing to overall earnings.

American Express Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Network Volume
Total Network Volume
Measures the total dollar amount of transactions processed, reflecting the scale of the network and overall economic activity facilitated by American Express.
Chart InsightsAmerican Express's Total Network Volume shows a robust recovery post-pandemic, with a notable surge in 2024 and 2025, reflecting strategic gains in premium product offerings and international expansion. Despite challenges in travel spending and increased provision expenses, the company maintains strong revenue growth and a positive outlook, supported by successful card refreshes and low credit losses. The reaffirmation of full-year guidance and optimism about new product launches indicate sustained momentum in premium segments, positioning the company well against macroeconomic headwinds.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

American Express Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 18, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
American Express reported strong revenue and earnings growth, along with positive credit metrics and low stress capital requirements, indicating a robust financial position. However, there are concerns with softer travel and entertainment spending and increased competition in the premium card market.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue and Growth
American Express reported revenues of $17.9 billion, a 9% increase year over year. Earnings per share were $4.08, up 17% excluding the previous year's gain from the sale of the certified.
Low Stress Capital Buffer
American Express's stress capital buffer requirement was set at the lowest permissible level of 2.5%, demonstrating low projected credit card loss and high profitability rates under the Fed stress test.
Strong Net Card Fee Growth
Net card fees reached record levels, up 20%. The line has more than doubled since 2019, driven by focus on premium products.
Positive Credit Metrics
Q2 delinquency and write-off rates remained low with delinquency rates flat to Q1 while write-offs rates declined.
Robust International Growth
The international business continued to grow in double digits, up 12% FX adjusted in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Softer T&E Spend
Travel and entertainment growth was down, driven by softer airline and lodging spend, although restaurant spending remained strong.
Provision Expense Increase
Total provision expense was $1.4 billion for the quarter, which includes a reserve build of $222 million reflecting growth in loan volume and a worse macroeconomic outlook.
Competitive Pressure in Premium Card Space
American Express faces intensified competition in the premium card market with new product launches from major competitors like Chase and Citi.
Company Guidance
During the American Express Q2 2025 Earnings Call, the company reaffirmed its full-year revenue growth guidance of 8% to 10% and earnings per share (EPS) guidance between $15 and $15.50, reflecting confidence in their financial trajectory. The call highlighted several key metrics, including record revenues of $17.9 billion, up 9% year over year, and EPS of $4.08, a 17% increase excluding last year's gains from the certified sale. Total card member spending rose 7%, with a noted softness in travel categories like airlines and lodging, although overall spending hit a quarterly record. The Fed's annual CCAR process set American Express's preliminary stress capital buffer requirement at 2.5%, the lowest permissible level, underscoring its robust capital position. The company also reported acquiring 3.1 million new cards in Q2, maintaining a strong trajectory despite competitive pressures. The guidance reflects the company's resilience and strategic focus on premium product refreshes, including upcoming updates to their US consumer and business platinum cards, aimed at maintaining leadership in the premium card category.

American Express Financial Statement Overview

Summary
American Express presents a strong financial position with consistent revenue and profit growth, high profitability margins, and efficient cash flow management. The low debt levels and high ROE are significant strengths. However, the company should monitor high liabilities and investing cash outflows to maintain financial stability.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a TTM revenue of $70.6 billion, up from $55.6 billion in 2022. The gross profit margin remains high at approximately 82.9%, indicating a healthy profitability level. Net profit margin is solid at 14.3% TTM, showcasing efficient cost management. However, the EBITDA margin decreased slightly, signaling potential cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.046, indicating low leverage. ROE is impressive at 31.4%, showing strong returns on equity. The equity ratio stands at 10.9%, suggesting a balanced asset financing strategy. However, the high total liabilities may pose a risk if growth slows down.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
The company exhibits robust cash flow generation, with a TTM free cash flow of $18.7 billion. Free cash flow has grown steadily, supported by strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.94. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.85 indicates efficient cash conversion. Nonetheless, investing cash outflows remain high, which could impact future liquidity.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue76.86B74.20B67.36B55.63B44.43B38.34B
Gross Profit63.44B60.76B55.59B50.68B44.57B31.51B
EBITDA14.56B14.57B12.16B11.21B12.38B5.84B
Net Income10.15B10.13B8.37B7.51B8.06B3.13B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets295.56B271.46B261.11B228.35B188.55B191.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments58.82B41.51B48.65B38.39B24.50B54.47B
Total Debt59.70B51.09B49.16B43.92B40.92B44.83B
Total Liabilities263.25B241.20B233.05B203.64B166.37B168.38B
Stockholders Equity32.31B30.26B28.06B24.71B22.18B22.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow11.10B12.14B17.00B19.22B13.10B4.11B
Operating Cash Flow13.09B14.05B18.56B21.08B14.64B5.59B
Investing Cash Flow-22.11B-24.40B-24.43B-33.69B-10.53B11.63B
Financing Cash Flow13.90B4.44B18.38B24.51B-14.93B-9.07B

American Express Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price322.46
Price Trends
50DMA
309.01
Positive
100DMA
293.20
Positive
200DMA
293.21
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.46
Negative
RSI
66.28
Neutral
STOCH
86.15
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 322.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 305.19, above the 50-day MA of 309.01, and above the 200-day MA of 293.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXP.

American Express Risk Analysis

American Express disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Express reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

American Express Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$534.82B40.02177.90%0.50%14.55%13.25%
80
Outperform
$676.58B34.4351.18%0.67%11.38%7.43%
78
Outperform
$67.05B15.0322.92%4.05%13.85%
78
Outperform
$28.03B9.1520.23%1.45%-3.16%14.60%
77
Outperform
$223.10B22.1732.58%0.94%8.03%6.26%
70
Outperform
$143.84B18.577.90%1.07%6.98%-6.76%
68
Neutral
$17.84B12.0310.32%3.73%9.70%0.76%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AXP
American Express
322.46
65.41
25.45%
COF
Capital One Financial
224.55
80.93
56.35%
MA
Mastercard
590.66
112.61
23.56%
V
Visa
350.35
77.94
28.61%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
75.76
26.87
54.96%
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
69.65
-3.51
-4.80%

American Express Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
American Express Reports July 2025 Loan Performance
Neutral
Aug 15, 2025

American Express reported delinquency and write-off statistics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member loans for the months ending July 31, June 30, and May 31, 2025. The data reveals that the delinquency rates for consumer loans remained steady at 1.3%, while small business loans saw a slight increase from 1.5% to 1.6%. The net write-off rates for consumer loans slightly decreased from 2.1% to 2.0%, whereas small business loans experienced an increase from 2.4% to 2.7%. These statistics provide additional insights into the credit performance of American Express’s loan portfolios, which may differ from the performance of loans securitized through the American Express Credit Account Master Trust.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXP) stock is a Hold with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Express stock, see the AXP Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
American Express Issues $4 Billion in New Notes
Neutral
Jul 25, 2025

On July 25, 2025, American Express issued $4 billion in aggregate principal amount of fixed-to-floating and floating rate notes, with maturities in 2029 and 2033. This issuance, under a senior indenture agreement with The Bank of New York Mellon, is part of the company’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its capital structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXP) stock is a Hold with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Express stock, see the AXP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
American Express Expands Board with New Appointments
Positive
Jul 23, 2025

On July 23, 2025, American Express announced the election of Randal K. Quarles and Noel Wallace to its Board of Directors, increasing the board to 14 members. Mr. Quarles, with extensive experience in financial services and regulation, will join the Nominating, Governance, and Public Responsibility Committee and Risk Committee. Mr. Wallace, known for his leadership in global consumer brands, will join the Audit and Compliance Committee and Compensation and Benefits Committee. These appointments are expected to bring valuable perspectives and expertise to American Express, supporting its growth and strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXP) stock is a Hold with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Express stock, see the AXP Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Express Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Jul 18, 2025

On July 18, 2025, American Express reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting a record revenue of $17.9 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share of $4.08. Despite a slight decline in net income compared to the previous year, the company saw a 17% rise in adjusted EPS, excluding a prior year gain. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance for revenue and EPS growth, driven by strong card member spending and demand for premium products. American Express also announced upcoming updates to its U.S. Consumer and Business Platinum Cards and the launch of the new Coinbase One Card on its network, indicating a strategic focus on maintaining its leadership in the premium card segment.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXP) stock is a Buy with a $350.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Express stock, see the AXP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Express Reclassifies $1.6B in Loans for Sale
Neutral
Jul 15, 2025

In a recent update, American Express disclosed delinquency and write-off statistics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member loans for the months ending June 30, May 31, and April 30, 2025. The company reclassified $1.6 billion of loans related to its Amazon small business co-brand portfolio to loans held for sale, impacting the reported figures for June 2025. The statistics reveal stable delinquency rates and write-off rates for both consumer and small business loans, with slight variations over the three months. This reclassification and the reported credit performance provide insights into the company’s financial health and operational adjustments, which may influence stakeholders’ perspectives on its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXP) stock is a Hold with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Express stock, see the AXP Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
American Express Maintains Strong Capital Position
Positive
Jul 1, 2025

On July 1, 2025, American Express announced that the Federal Reserve set its preliminary Stress Capital Buffer requirement at 2.5 percent, effective from October 1, 2025, to September 30, 2026. This requirement, consistent with the previous year’s buffer, reaffirms the company’s strong capital position and supports its strategy of sustainable growth and shareholder returns. The company had previously increased its quarterly dividend by 17 percent and returned $5.4 billion to shareholders through share repurchases in the 12 months ending March 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXP) stock is a Hold with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Express stock, see the AXP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Express Reclassifies $1.6 Billion in Loans
Neutral
Jun 16, 2025

In a recent announcement, American Express reported delinquency and write-off statistics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member loans for March, April, and May 2025. Notably, effective June 1, 2025, the company reclassified approximately $1.6 billion in loans related to its Amazon small business cobrand portfolio as held for sale, impacting how these loans are reported in future financial statements. This reclassification could influence the company’s financial metrics and stakeholder perceptions, as it adjusts its balance sheet and loan portfolio management strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXP) stock is a Hold with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Express stock, see the AXP Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
American Express Issues €1 Billion in Notes
Neutral
May 20, 2025

On May 20, 2025, American Express issued €1,000,000,000 in Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes due in 2032, under a senior indenture with The Bank of New York Mellon as trustee. This issuance is part of the company’s strategic financial operations, potentially impacting its financial structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXP) stock is a Hold with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Express stock, see the AXP Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
American Express Reports Stable Loan Delinquency Rates
Neutral
May 15, 2025

In a recent update, American Express reported delinquency and write-off statistics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member lending portfolios for February, March, and April 2025. The statistics showed stable delinquency rates at 1.4% for consumer loans and 1.6% for small business loans over the three months, while net write-off rates slightly decreased for both segments. This data, which excludes loans held for sale, provides insights into the company’s credit performance and reflects the impact of various factors such as loan mix and seasonal variability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXP) stock is a Hold with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Express stock, see the AXP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 13, 2025