American Express (AXP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $207.35B
• Dividend Yield: 0.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.49M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.20
• Revenue Growth: 8.45%
• EPS Growth: 17.89%
• Country: US
• Employees: 75,100
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 82
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.64
• Shares Outstanding: 700,588,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,111,343
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,494,204
• PEG Ratio: 9.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.69
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.35
• 1Y Price Target: $292.47
• Price Target Upside: -3.31% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: ―

American Express has a strong financial foundation with robust revenue and profit growth backed by efficient cash flow management. The technical analysis indicates short-term caution, and the valuation suggests a fair price compared to peers. Positive earnings call and corporate events further support the company's future growth prospects despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

Positive Factors

Credit Quality

American Express's credit quality remains best-in-class, exemplifying the resilience of the higher-income cardmember base.

Customer Acquisition

Customer acquisition was strong, with NNA growth of ~5%, up from 3-4% in 2H24.

Financial Performance

Adjusted EPS exceeded estimates, driven by a reserve release, indicating strong financial performance.

Negative Factors

Competition and Regulation

Increased competition or regulatory actions concerning credit cards, particularly related to interchange rates, could pose downside risks.

Macroeconomic Concerns

Macroeconomic uncertainties could lead to a slowdown in revenue growth, with AXP's volumes likely to be more affected than those of other major card players, given its high exposure to travel and entertainment.

Spending Concerns

Concern over spend amid uncertain macro weighs on stock.

American Express Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides charge and credit payment card products, and travel-related services worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Global Consumer Services Group, Global Commercial Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. Its products and services include payment and financing products; network services; accounts payable expense management products and services; and travel and lifestyle services. The company's products and services also comprise merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, point-of-sale marketing, and information products and services for merchants; and fraud prevention services, as well as the design and operation of customer loyalty programs. It sells its products and services to consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies, and large corporations through mobile and online applications, third-party vendors and business partners, direct mail, telephone, in-house sales teams, and direct response advertising. American Express Company was founded in 1850 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

American Express generates revenue through several key streams: card fees, interest on outstanding balances, merchant discount revenues, and travel-related services. A significant portion of its income comes from the annual fees charged for its premium credit and charge cards. The company also earns interest income from cardholders who carry a balance on their credit cards. Merchant discount revenue is another substantial source of income, where American Express charges merchants a fee for processing transactions made with its cards. Additionally, the company offers a range of travel-related services, earning fees from travel bookings and related activities. Strategic partnerships with businesses and merchants further enhance fee-based income, supporting the company's robust financial performance.

American Express Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Express shows strong financial metrics with robust revenue growth of 34.7% and a high net profit margin of 15.1%. The balance sheet is healthy with a low debt-to-equity ratio, and cash flows are efficiently managed. However, there is room to enhance operational efficiency observed in the EBIT margin.

Income Statement

American Express has demonstrated strong income statement metrics with a TTM Gross Profit Margin of 78.7% and a Net Profit Margin of 15.1%. The Revenue Growth Rate from the previous year was 34.7%, indicating robust revenue expansion. However, the EBIT margin of 14.0% suggests room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.05, reflecting prudent leverage management. However, the Equity Ratio of 11.1% indicates a moderate level of equity financing. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 32.9%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics are positive, with a stable Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.14 and a solid Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.29, indicating efficient cash conversion. Despite a slight decline in Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of -3.2% compared to the previous year, cash flows remain strong.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
75.33B	74.20B	60.36B	52.86B	42.38B	36.09B
	Gross Profit
62.05B	60.76B	34.51B	32.75B	27.23B	24.33B
	EBIT
13.08B	12.89B	10.76B	12.35B	10.69B	4.30B
	EBITDA
14.80B	14.57B	14.33B	12.59B	13.20B	0.00
	Net Income Common Stockholders
10.28B	10.13B	8.37B	7.51B	8.06B	3.13B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
55.97B	41.51B	86.07B	38.07B	24.03B	54.38B
	Total Assets
269.26B	271.46B	261.11B	228.00B	189.00B	191.00B
	Total Debt
50.57B	51.09B	49.16B	44.00B	41.00B	45.00B
	Net Debt
-3.58B	10.54B	2.63B	10.46B	19.48B	12.17B
	Total Liabilities
240.50B	241.20B	233.05B	203.00B	167.00B	168.00B
	Stockholders Equity
28.76B	30.26B	28.06B	25.00B	22.00B	23.00B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
11.32B	12.14B	17.00B	19.22B	13.10B	4.11B
	Operating Cash Flow
13.26B	14.05B	18.56B	21.08B	14.64B	5.59B
	Investing Cash Flow
-20.81B	-24.40B	-24.43B	-33.69B	-10.53B	11.63B
	Financing Cash Flow
5.90B	4.44B	18.38B	24.51B	-14.93B	-9.07B

American Express Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 302.47
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 302.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 295.13, above the 50-day MA of 274.38, and above the 200-day MA of 281.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXP.

American Express Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
V	82 Outperform	$713.61B	37.30	50.03%	0.62%	10.19%	12.45%
DFS	78 Outperform	$50.34B	10.69	28.29%	1.40%	9.42%	128.55%
MA	77 Outperform	$530.42B	41.07	188.92%	0.49%	12.94%	13.22%
PYPL	77 Outperform	$70.80B	16.26	22.20%	―	4.50%	12.82%
AXP	76 Outperform	$207.35B	20.67	34.02%	0.99%	8.45%	17.89%
COF	73 Outperform	$122.91B	16.12	7.90%	1.25%	6.69%	-6.76%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.77B	9.77	7.59%	16985.66%	12.30%	-7.71%

American Express Corporate Events

American Express Issues €1 Billion in Notes

On May 20, 2025, American Express issued €1,000,000,000 in Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes due in 2032, under a senior indenture with The Bank of New York Mellon as trustee. This issuance is part of the company’s strategic financial operations, potentially impacting its financial structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXP) stock is a Hold with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Express stock, see the AXP Stock Forecast page.

American Express Reports Stable Loan Delinquency Rates

In a recent update, American Express reported delinquency and write-off statistics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member lending portfolios for February, March, and April 2025. The statistics showed stable delinquency rates at 1.4% for consumer loans and 1.6% for small business loans over the three months, while net write-off rates slightly decreased for both segments. This data, which excludes loans held for sale, provides insights into the company’s credit performance and reflects the impact of various factors such as loan mix and seasonal variability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXP) stock is a Hold with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Express stock, see the AXP Stock Forecast page.

American Express Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

On April 17, 2025, American Express reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with a revenue increase of 7% to $17.0 billion, or 8% on an FX-adjusted basis, and earnings per share rising by 9% to $3.64. The company maintained its full-year guidance for revenue growth and EPS, driven by higher net interest income, increased Card Member spending, and strong card fee growth. Despite a slight decrease in provisions for credit losses, consolidated expenses rose by 10% due to higher customer engagement costs and increased operating expenses. American Express continues to focus on long-term growth, emphasizing customer support, disciplined expense management, and strategic investments.

American Express Reports Stable Delinquency Rates Q1 2025

In a recent release, American Express reported its delinquency and write-off statistics for U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member lending portfolios for the first quarter of 2025. The data indicates stable delinquency rates and slight variations in write-off rates, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to manage credit risk effectively. The reclassification of Lowe’s small business cobrand portfolio loans as held for sale, effective December 2024, is a notable change in their balance sheet reporting, potentially impacting future financial statements.

American Express Reports Delinquency and Write-Off Statistics

American Express reported delinquency and write-off statistics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member lending portfolios for the months ending February 28, January 31, 2025, and December 31, 2024. The company reclassified $758 million of loans related to its Lowe’s small business cobrand portfolio as loans held for sale, which are not included in the reported statistics. The data shows a consistent delinquency rate of 1.4% for consumer loans and a slight increase in the net write-off rate over the three months. For small business loans, the delinquency rate remained stable at 1.6%, with a gradual increase in the net write-off rate. These statistics provide additional insights beyond the data reported by the American Express Credit Account Master Trust, highlighting differences in credit performance due to factors like loan mix and calculation methods.