American Express (AXP)
NYSE:AXP
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American Express
(NYSE:AXP)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$337.00
▲(12.24% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
AXP scores well on fundamentals and earnings outlook, driven by strong revenue/earnings momentum, high ROE, and upbeat 2026 guidance with stable credit. The overall score is held back mainly by weak technicals (downtrend and negative momentum) and only moderate valuation support given a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Multi-year Revenue Expansion
Sustained revenue growth over multiple years demonstrates durable demand for American Express’s premium payments and travel services. The scale expansion reflects successful product mix, international and cohort momentum, and supports long-term investment capacity and margin resilience.
Negative Factors
Meaningfully High Leverage
Consistently high leverage increases sensitivity to funding costs and credit cycles, constraining financial flexibility. In adverse markets or rising interest rates, elevated debt levels can pressure net interest margin, capital actions, and regulatory buffers, weakening resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Multi-year Revenue Expansion
Sustained revenue growth over multiple years demonstrates durable demand for American Express’s premium payments and travel services. The scale expansion reflects successful product mix, international and cohort momentum, and supports long-term investment capacity and margin resilience.
Read all positive factors
American Express (AXP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$206.15B
Dividend Yield0.84%
Average Volume (3M)4.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.7
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth8.14%
EPS Growth9.55%
CountryUS
Employees75,100
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.53
Shares Outstanding686,614,000
10 Day Avg. Volume3,817,167
30 Day Avg. Volume4,212,824
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.43
Price to Book (P/B)7.68
Price to Sales (P/S)3.20
P/FCF Ratio16.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.23
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.88
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$375.61Price Target Upside25.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)17.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$79.09B
American Express Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides charge and credit payment card products, and travel-related services worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Global Consumer Services Group, Global Commercial Servi...
How the Company Makes Money
American Express generates revenue through several key sources. The primary revenue stream is from cardmember fees, which include annual fees charged for premium credit and charge cards. Additionally, the company earns significant income from merc...
American Express Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability for American Express.
Breaks down revenue by business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability for American Express.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican Express Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed significant positive momentum across core financial metrics — record revenue, strong EPS growth, double-digit net card fee and NII growth, robust consumer and international spend, best-in-class credit metrics, and continued heavy investment in technology and product that supports long-term revenue generation. Management provided confident 2026 guidance (9%–10% revenue growth; mid‑teens EPS growth) and a continued focus on capital returns. Headwinds include moderation in middle‑market commercial activity, higher near-term VCE/investment ratios tied to the platinum refresh, competitive pressures in SMB/fintech, investor scrutiny over acquisition cadence and cost-to-grow dynamics, and regulatory/macro risks. Overall, the positive results, clear strategy, and upward guidance materially outweigh the flagged challenges.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong EPS
Full-year revenues up 10% to a record $72.0 billion; EPS of $15.38, up 15% year-over-year excluding a one-time gain.
Negative Updates
Commercial/SME Moderation
Small business remains healthy but middle-market commercial spend showed a slight deceleration; management highlighted SME/middle-market as the weaker segment in commercial services.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong EPS
Full-year revenues up 10% to a record $72.0 billion; EPS of $15.38, up 15% year-over-year excluding a one-time gain.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 to revenue growth of 9–10% and EPS of $17.30–$17.90, and announced a 16% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.95 (target payout ratio 20–25%); they expect the VCE-to-revenue ratio to be ~44% in 2026 (Q4 was 45%), operating expenses to grow mid-single digits, marketing to rise low-single digits (marketing was $6.3B in 2025, +4% YoY), and record technology investment (about $5B annual tech spend) with 100% of data/analytics migration to the new cloud platform targeted by 2027. Assumptions include loans and card member receivables growing roughly in line with billed business (billed spend +8% FX‑adjusted in Q4; transactions +9%; international spend +12%; retail +10%; luxury retail +15%; US restaurant spend by US consumers >20%), NII outpacing loan growth (NII +12% in Q4), net card fees at a record $10B (net card fees +18% in 2025; card fees +16% in Q4), and stable credit metrics (delinquencies flat; write-offs below 2019); capital returns reflected $7.6B returned in 2025 ($2.3B dividends, $5.3B repurchases), a 7% share count reduction since 2022, and ROE of 34% for the year.American Express Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 80.46B | 74.20B | 67.36B | 55.63B | 44.43B |
| Gross Profit | 66.97B | 60.76B | 55.59B | 50.68B | 44.57B |
| EBITDA | 15.57B | 14.57B | 12.16B | 11.21B | 12.38B |
| Net Income | 10.83B | 10.13B | 8.37B | 7.51B | 8.06B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 300.05B | 271.46B | 261.11B | 228.35B | 188.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 48.53B | 41.74B | 48.65B | 38.39B | 24.50B |
| Total Debt | 57.76B | 51.09B | 49.16B | 43.92B | 40.92B |
| Total Liabilities | 266.58B | 241.20B | 233.05B | 203.64B | 166.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 33.47B | 30.26B | 28.06B | 24.71B | 22.18B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.00B | 12.14B | 17.00B | 19.22B | 13.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 18.43B | 14.05B | 18.56B | 21.08B | 14.64B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.89B | -24.40B | -24.43B | -33.69B | -10.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 11.21B | 4.44B | 18.38B | 24.51B | -14.93B |
American Express Technical Analysis
Negative
300.24
Price Trends
332.57
Negative
350.08
Negative
334.33
Negative
Market Momentum
-9.99
Negative
37.92
Neutral
67.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 300.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 304.13, below the 50-day MA of 332.57, and below the 200-day MA of 334.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -9.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AXP.
American Express Risk Analysis
American Express disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Express reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Fraudulent activity associated with our products and services could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations. Q4, 2025
American Express Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $581.16B | 28.66 | 54.22% | 0.69% | 11.34% | 2.76% | |
74 Outperform | $448.37B | 31.53 | 198.42% | 0.54% | 15.67% | 18.22% | |
68 Neutral | $206.15B | 23.73 | 33.49% | 0.84% | 8.14% | 9.55% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $23.51B | 8.41 | 21.09% | 1.34% | -6.38% | 19.65% | |
66 Neutral | $41.29B | 10.70 | 25.87% | ― | 4.50% | 19.71% | |
53 Neutral | $115.20B | 53.42 | 2.44% | 1.05% | 19.39% | -77.61% |
* Financial Sector Average
AXP
American Express
300.24
31.08
11.55%
COF
Capital One Financial
185.23
8.13
4.59%
MA
Mastercard
502.76
-51.61
-9.31%
V
Visa
304.91
-42.35
-12.20%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
67.63
14.44
27.15%
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
44.85
-23.64
-34.52%
American Express Corporate Events
Dividends
American Express Announces 16% Increase in Quarterly Dividend
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, American Express announced that its board of directors approved a 16 percent increase in the quarterly dividend on its common shares, raising the payout to $0.95 from $0.82 per share. The increased dividend is scheduled to be pai...
Business Operations and Strategy
American Express Unveils New World Trade Center Headquarters
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, American Express Company announced plans to develop a new headquarters of about 1.95 million square feet at 200 Greenwich Street, on the 2 World Trade Center site in New York City. Construction is slated to begin in the sprin...
Financial Disclosures
American Express Reports Stable January 2026 Credit Metrics
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
American Express reported delinquency and net write-off metrics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business card loans for the months ended January 31, 2026, and December 31 and November 30, 2025, showing relatively stable credit performance acr...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
American Express Boosts Funding With New Debt Issuances
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, American Express Company issued three tranches of senior debt totaling $3 billion, comprising $1.35 billion of 4.009% fixed-to-floating rate notes due 2029, $1 billion of 4.456% fixed-to-floating rate notes due 2032, and $650...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
American Express Posts Strong 2025 Results, Raises Dividend
Positive
Jan 30, 2026
On January 30, 2026, American Express reported that full-year 2025 revenues rose 10% year-over-year to $72.2 billion, driven by higher card member spending, increased net interest income from growth in revolving loan balances, and strong card fee ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
American Express Reports Stable Card Lending and Credit Metrics
Positive
Jan 15, 2026
For the months and quarter ended December 31, 2025, American Express reported that U.S. consumer card member loans held for investment rose to $100.2 billion and U.S. small business card loans totaled $30.8 billion, with 30‑day delinquency r...
Financial Disclosures
American Express Reports November Loan Write-Off Rates
Neutral
Dec 15, 2025
American Express reported delinquency and write-off statistics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member loans for the months ending November 30, October 31, and September 30, 2025. The data indicates stable delinquency rates but a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.