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Capital One Financial
(NYSE:COF)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$224.00
▲(8.49% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:07/22/26
COF’s score is primarily supported by strong cash flow generation and a solid balance-sheet position, reinforced by an earnings call showing improving credit trends, strong NIM, and steady integration progress. The main constraints are weakened profitability versus prior years and an expensive valuation (high P/E), while technical signals are moderately positive but mixed on the longer-term trend.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow and near‑par free cash flow coverage indicate durable cash conversion. This strengthens the firm's ability to fund loan growth, integration investments, and capital actions without relying on volatile wholesale funding, providing a multi‑quarter buffer through credit cycles.
Negative Factors
Compressed profitability and low ROE
Profitability remains meaningfully depressed relative to historical norms, implying inefficient capital use. Over a 2–6 month horizon, low ROE limits internal capital generation for growth and makes earnings sensitive to margin or credit setbacks, constraining strategic flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow and near‑par free cash flow coverage indicate durable cash conversion. This strengthens the firm's ability to fund loan growth, integration investments, and capital actions without relying on volatile wholesale funding, providing a multi‑quarter buffer through credit cycles.
Read all positive factors
Capital One Financial Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and profitability, and highlighting strategic focus areas for the company.
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and profitability, and highlighting strategic focus areas for the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCapital One Financial (COF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$127.04B
Dividend Yield1.49%
Average Volume (3M)4.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)70.8
Beta (1Y)1.44
Revenue Growth39.21%
EPS Growth-76.14%
CountryUS
Employees76,300
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.85
Shares Outstanding616,019,500
10 Day Avg. Volume4,505,396
30 Day Avg. Volume4,615,634
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.92
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio5.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$257.94Price Target Upside24.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)19.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$63.70B
Capital One Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Capital One Financial Corporation, identified by its ticker COF, operates as a prominent financial services holding company. It oversees essential subsidiaries such as Capital One Bank (USA), National Association, and Capital One, National Associa...
How the Company Makes Money
Capital One primarily makes money from (1) net interest income and (2) non-interest income. Net interest income is earned by collecting interest on interest-earning assets—such as credit card loans, auto loans, other consumer loans, and commercial...
Capital One Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed solid top-line growth, improving credit metrics, a healthy liquidity and funding posture, and clear progress on Discover integration and synergy realization. Management acknowledged near-term headwinds — most notably a temporary Discover loan "brownout," margin on capital due to buybacks and the Brex impact, elevated expenses tied to integration, technology and marketing, and sizable net charge-offs in the quarter. Taken together the positives (robust revenue growth, improving credit/delinquency trends, high NIM, strong liquidity ratios, and on-track synergy delivery) outweigh the medium-term capital and expense pressures.Positive Updates
Reported and Adjusted EPS
GAAP earnings of $3.0 billion or $4.73 per diluted common share; adjusted EPS (net of acquisition-related items) of $5.81 for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Capital Ratio Compression
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio ended the quarter at 13.7%, down 70 basis points QoQ. Drivers included $2.7 billion of share repurchases, an estimated ~40-bp impact from the Brex transaction, and higher risk-weighted assets that more than offset net income.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Reported and Adjusted EPS
GAAP earnings of $3.0 billion or $4.73 per diluted common share; adjusted EPS (net of acquisition-related items) of $5.81 for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated that earnings power remains consistent with the original Discover thesis while providing near‑term metrics and timing: Q2 GAAP earnings $3.0B ($4.73 diluted), adjusted EPS $5.81; revenue +4% Q/Q, noninterest expense +7% Q/Q, pre‑provision earnings +1% (flat on an adjusted basis); provision down $1.1B (‑27%) to $3.0B and an allowance release of $662M to an allowance balance of $23B with total portfolio coverage 5.02% (‑26 bps); segment coverage—domestic card 6.99% (‑41 bps) with a 4.71% charge‑off rate (‑39 bps Q/Q) and 3.39% delinquency (‑31 bps Q/Q), consumer banking allowance build $115M and coverage 2.39% (+3 bps); liquidity reserves ~$144B (‑$21B), ending cash ~$55B (‑$22B), preliminary LCR 165% and NSFR 136%; NIM 8.01% (+14 bps Q/Q) with an expected Q3 NIM catch‑up from lower average cash and an extra day (+9 bps tailwind in back half); CET1 13.7% (‑70 bps Q/Q) after $2.7B buybacks and ~40 bps Brex impact; integration update—14 of 24 months complete, full quarterly debit revenue synergies now in the run‑rate, ~1/3 of operating expense synergies realized and the full $2.5B of synergies on track (remaining opex synergies targeted by H2 2027), and tech conversion milestones for Discover (50% of originations on Capital One tech, new originations fully on by end‑Q3; back‑book waves in Jul/Oct/Jan with full back‑book on platform by Q1).Capital One Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 75.16B | 69.25B | 53.94B | 49.48B | 38.37B | 32.03B |
| Gross Profit | 36.31B | 32.78B | 27.40B | 26.36B | 28.40B | 32.38B |
| EBITDA | 9.21B | 7.54B | 9.15B | 9.27B | 12.45B | 19.29B |
| Net Income | 3.22B | 2.45B | 4.75B | 4.89B | 7.36B | 12.39B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 682.72B | 669.01B | 490.14B | 478.46B | 455.25B | 432.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 168.81B | 61.71B | 47.08B | 122.41B | 107.78B | 117.01B |
| Total Debt | 50.54B | 51.00B | 45.55B | 49.86B | 48.75B | 43.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 570.64B | 555.39B | 429.36B | 420.38B | 402.67B | 371.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 112.26B | 113.62B | 60.78B | 58.09B | 52.58B | 61.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 28.87B | 26.14B | 16.95B | 19.61B | 12.88B | 11.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 29.07B | 27.72B | 18.16B | 20.57B | 13.81B | 12.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.26B | -444.00M | -26.41B | -21.92B | -29.74B | -31.50B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.48B | -8.85B | 8.17B | 13.84B | 25.13B | 474.00M |
Capital One Financial Technical Analysis
Negative
206.47
Price Trends
193.88
Positive
191.74
Positive
207.52
Negative
Market Momentum
3.16
Positive
50.21
Neutral
50.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 206.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 203.83, above the 50-day MA of 193.88, and below the 200-day MA of 207.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COF.
Capital One Financial Risk Analysis
Capital One Financial disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Capital One Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Capital One Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $239.35B | 21.74 | 33.95% | 0.84% | 9.41% | 12.00% | |
70 Outperform | $24.29B | 7.37 | 21.41% | 1.34% | -2.40% | 18.50% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $127.04B | 70.80 | 2.86% | 1.05% | 39.21% | -76.14% | |
67 Neutral | $6.93B | 8.85 | 23.62% | 6.07% | 7.80% | 42.28% | |
65 Neutral | $22.63B | 35.65 | 6.25% | ― | 32.00% | 10.31% | |
63 Neutral | $13.62B | 10.73 | 9.19% | 2.58% | 2.24% | 174.08% |
* Financial Sector Average
COF
Capital One Financial
201.36
-17.50
-8.00%
AXP
American Express
348.74
43.35
14.19%
ALLY
Ally Financial
44.67
6.38
16.66%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
72.81
1.91
2.70%
OMF
OneMain Holdings
59.82
5.01
9.14%
SOFI
SoFi
17.07
-4.49
-20.83%
Capital One Financial Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
Capital One Reports June 2026 Credit Portfolio Metrics
Neutral
Jul 21, 2026
For the month ended June 30, 2026, Capital One reported domestic credit card loans held for investment averaging $256.2 billion, with period-end balances of $259.0 billion and net charge-offs of $934 million, translating to an annualized net charg...
M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capital One Updates Resale Registration After Brex Acquisition
Neutral
Jun 9, 2026
Capital One Financial filed a current report to support a new resale prospectus supplement dated June 9, 2026, tied to its existing automatic shelf registration statement. The filing relates to the registration of additional common shares that can...
Business Operations and Strategy
Capital One to Present at Morgan Stanley Financials Conference
Neutral
Jun 8, 2026
Capital One Financial said it would present at the Morgan Stanley US Financials conference in New York on June 9, 2026, at 2:30 p.m. ET, signaling continued engagement with the investor community and Wall Street analysts. The company noted that th...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capital One Updates April 2026 Credit Performance Metrics
Neutral
May 15, 2026
Capital One reported monthly credit performance metrics for the month ended April 30, 2026, highlighting asset quality in its key lending portfolios. The disclosure, furnished rather than filed, underscores the firm’s practice of providing f...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Capital One Stockholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 8, 2026
Capital One Financial held its 2026 Annual Stockholder Meeting on May 8, 2026, with 556,421,571 of 619,050,950 eligible shares represented, and stockholders elected 13 directors, including CEO Richard D. Fairbank, to serve terms expiring at the 20...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capital One Finalizes Brex Acquisition and Share Resale
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
Capital One Financial Corporation, a major player in consumer and commercial banking, provides credit cards, loans and deposit services to retail and business clients across the U.S. financial sector. The company competes in a crowded marketplace,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.