Capital One Financial (COF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $154.95B
• Dividend Yield: 1.07%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.91M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 103.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: 19.39%
• EPS Growth: -77.61%
• Country: US
• Employees: 53,900
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 5.95
• Shares Outstanding: 635,733,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,017,384
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,912,238
• PEG Ratio: -4.65
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.27
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 29.39
• 1Y Price Target: $261.74
• Price Target Upside: 7.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19
• EPS Forecast (FY): 19.81
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $53.39B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $255.00 ▲(4.62% Upside)

Capital One Financial's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive technical indicators, offset by a high valuation and economic uncertainties. The Discover acquisition has bolstered revenue growth, but challenges remain in profitability and integration costs. Corporate events further enhance shareholder value, contributing positively to the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, enhancing long-term financial stability.

Strong Capital Position

A robust capital position and share buyback program reflect financial strength and commitment to shareholder value, supporting future growth.

Improved Credit Performance

Better credit performance suggests effective risk management and enhances profitability, contributing to long-term business resilience.

Negative Factors

Profit Margin Decline

The decline in profit margins indicates pressure on profitability, which could impact long-term financial health and operational efficiency.

Higher Integration Costs

Increased integration costs may strain financial resources and delay the realization of synergies, affecting long-term profitability.

Economic Uncertainty

Economic uncertainty poses risks to consumer spending and loan performance, potentially impacting revenue and credit quality over time.

Capital One Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One Bank (USA), National Association; and Capital One, National Association, which provides various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company also offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and treasury management and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Capital One generates revenue primarily through interest income from its various lending products, including credit cards and loans. The company charges interest on outstanding balances on credit cards and loans, which constitutes a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, Capital One earns non-interest income through fees associated with credit card transactions, annual fees, and late payment fees. The company also benefits from interchange fees collected from merchants when customers use their credit cards. Partnerships with retailers and financial technology firms enhance its offerings and provide additional revenue opportunities. Capital One's investment in digital banking technology has also streamlined operations and reduced costs, further contributing to its profitability.

Capital One Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Capital One Financial demonstrates strong revenue growth and improved leverage, but faces challenges in profitability and operational efficiency. The company's cash flow generation remains robust, supporting its financial stability. While the balance sheet shows a solid capital structure, the decline in return on equity and profit margins suggests areas for improvement.

Income Statement

Capital One Financial shows a solid revenue growth rate of 10.31% in the TTM, indicating strong top-line expansion. However, the net profit margin has decreased significantly to 2.24% from 8.81% in the previous year, reflecting pressure on profitability. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 45.74%, but the decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins suggests operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.45 in the TTM, indicating a more conservative leverage position compared to previous years. However, the return on equity has decreased to 1.62%, showing reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio remains stable, reflecting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Capital One Financial exhibits a strong free cash flow growth rate of 20.61% in the TTM, highlighting robust cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.05, suggesting potential challenges in converting earnings into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains high at 98.41%, indicating efficient cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	63.34B	53.94B	49.48B	38.37B	32.03B	31.64B
Gross Profit	28.97B	27.40B	26.36B	28.40B	32.38B	18.26B
EBITDA	6.11B	9.15B	9.27B	12.45B	19.29B	6.70B
Net Income	1.42B	4.75B	4.89B	7.36B	12.39B	2.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	661.88B	490.14B	478.46B	455.25B	432.38B	421.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	55.28B	47.08B	122.41B	107.78B	117.01B	140.95B
Total Debt	51.48B	45.55B	49.86B	48.75B	43.09B	40.54B
Total Liabilities	548.06B	429.36B	420.38B	402.67B	371.35B	361.40B
Stockholders Equity	113.81B	60.78B	58.09B	52.58B	61.03B	60.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	20.84B	16.95B	19.61B	12.88B	11.61B	15.99B
Operating Cash Flow	22.34B	18.16B	20.57B	13.81B	12.31B	16.70B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.88B	-26.41B	-21.92B	-29.74B	-31.50B	-14.84B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.64B	8.17B	13.84B	25.13B	474.00M	25.16B

Capital One Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 243.73
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 243.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 229.17, above the 50-day MA of 220.63, and above the 200-day MA of 204.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.64 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COF.

Capital One Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AXP	80 Outperform	$259.36B	25.28	33.70%	0.84%	8.14%	9.55%
OMF	79 Outperform	$8.04B	11.59	21.41%	6.11%	9.51%	29.38%
SYF	72 Outperform	$30.50B	9.25	21.64%	1.36%	-6.38%	19.65%
COF	71 Outperform	$154.95B	103.37	1.53%	1.07%	19.39%	-77.61%
SOFI	68 Neutral	$34.33B	49.39	8.59%	―	22.40%	215.81%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ALLY	67 Neutral	$14.07B	27.51	4.25%	2.63%	-6.89%	-33.20%

Capital One Financial Corporate Events

Capital One to Present at Goldman Sachs Conference

Capital One Financial Corporation announced its participation in the Goldman Sachs 2025 U.S. Financial Services Conference, scheduled for December 9, 2025, in New York. The event will feature a live audio webcast accessible through the company’s website, with the presentation replay available until December 22, 2025, indicating the company’s ongoing engagement with investors and stakeholders.

Capital One Approves Special Cash Award for Executive

On November 3, 2025, Capital One Financial‘s Board of Directors approved a $2,000,000 special cash award for Matthew Cooper, the company’s President, Discover Integration, General Counsel, and Secretary. This award recognizes his expanded role and exceptional performance throughout the year, highlighting his significant contributions to the company’s operations.

Capital One Launches $16 Billion Share Buyback Program

On October 20, 2025, Capital One authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $16 billion, replacing its previous authorization from April 2022. This move is part of the company’s strategy to manage capital and enhance shareholder value, with repurchases set to begin on October 21, 2025. In its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, Capital One announced a net income of $3.2 billion, a significant recovery from the previous quarter’s loss, driven by strong top-line growth and credit results. The company’s financial performance highlights its robust capital position and successful integration of Discover, positioning it well for future opportunities.

Capital One Releases September 2025 Credit Metrics

Capital One Financial Corporation released its monthly charge-off and delinquency metrics for September 2025. The report highlights the company’s performance in managing credit card and auto loan portfolios, with specific figures on net charge-offs and delinquency rates. These metrics are crucial for stakeholders to assess the company’s credit risk management and financial health.

Capital One Completes $2.75 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On September 11, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation completed a public offering of $2.75 billion in aggregate principal amount of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due in 2031 and 2036. This strategic financial move is expected to enhance the company’s capital structure and potentially strengthen its market position by providing additional liquidity and financial flexibility.