Capital One Financial (COF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $139.23B
• Dividend Yield: 1.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.82M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: 6.98%
• EPS Growth: -6.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 53,900
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 80
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 4.06
• Shares Outstanding: 640,137,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,351,762
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,820,995
• PEG Ratio: 5.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.49
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.37
• 1Y Price Target: $236.73
• Price Target Upside: 8.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $241.00 ▲(10.54%Upside)

Capital One Financial's strong financial performance and strategic acquisitions, particularly the Discover merger, are major strengths. While technical indicators show strong momentum, moderate valuation and some operational challenges temper the overall outlook. The stock remains a solid choice with significant growth potential, though investors should monitor profitability and operational efficiency improvements closely.

Positive Factors

Acquisition

Discover acquisition a game-changer, unlocks meaningful accretion via network ownership & other synergies.

Consumer Interest

Consumers are open to getting a Discover card, with about 2/3 of all cardholders expressing interest.

Revenue Growth

If Capital One can move 20% of its credit card volumes to the Discover network, it can earn an incremental $270M of revenues.

Negative Factors

Card Acceptance

41% of all respondents and 73% of premium cardholders expressed concerns around Discover card acceptance.

Integration Costs

Integration expenses are uncertain in terms of modeling, leading to some uncertainty in the financial outlook.

Capital One Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One Bank (USA), National Association; and Capital One, National Association, which provides various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company also offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and treasury management and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Capital One generates revenue primarily through interest income from its credit card and loan products, which includes credit card loans, auto loans, and other consumer loans. Interest income is earned on the outstanding balances of these loans. The company also earns money through non-interest income, which includes fees from interchange, annual fees on credit cards, and service charges on deposit accounts. Additionally, Capital One benefits from strategic partnerships and co-branded card agreements with various retailers and organizations, enhancing its customer base and revenue potential. Factors such as credit risk management, economic conditions, and regulatory changes significantly impact its earnings.

Capital One Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Capital One Financial demonstrates robust revenue growth and a strong equity position, with improvements in leverage ratios. However, profitability margins and cash flow growth have shown some decline, indicating a need for increased operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Capital One Financial has shown strong revenue growth with a 25% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin remains stable as total revenue equals gross profit, indicating effective cost management. However, net profit margin has declined slightly due to lower net income, and EBIT margin is low, suggesting room for improvement in operational efficiency. Overall, revenue growth is a strong positive, offset by lower profitability margins.

Balance Sheet

The company exhibits a solid equity ratio at approximately 12.4%, indicating a sturdy financial foundation. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly as total debt was reduced to zero by 2024, demonstrating robust financial management. Return on equity is healthy at around 7.8%, although slightly lower than prior years, reflecting a minor decline in net income versus equity. Overall, the balance sheet reflects strong equity position and improved leverage.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis indicates a decrease in free cash flow compared to the previous year, but operating cash flow remains strong. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high, suggesting effective cash generation relative to earnings. However, the decrease in free cash flow growth rate from 2023 to 2024 is a concern. Overall, cash flow stability is maintained, but growth momentum has slowed slightly.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	27.40B	36.79B	28.40B	30.43B	31.64B
Gross Profit	27.40B	25.77B	28.40B	30.43B	18.26B
EBITDA	9.15B	9.27B	12.45B	19.29B	6.70B
Net Income	4.75B	4.89B	7.36B	12.39B	2.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	490.14B	478.46B	455.25B	432.38B	421.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	47.08B	43.30B	107.78B	117.01B	140.95B
Total Debt	45.55B	49.32B	47.83B	42.27B	39.87B
Total Liabilities	429.36B	420.38B	402.67B	371.35B	361.40B
Stockholders Equity	60.78B	58.09B	52.58B	61.03B	60.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	16.95B	19.61B	12.88B	11.61B	15.99B
Operating Cash Flow	18.16B	20.57B	13.81B	12.31B	16.70B
Investing Cash Flow	-26.41B	-21.92B	-29.74B	-31.50B	-14.84B
Financing Cash Flow	8.17B	13.84B	25.13B	474.00M	25.16B

Capital One Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 218.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 218.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 206.90, above the 50-day MA of 197.15, and above the 200-day MA of 181.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COF.

Capital One Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DFS	78 Outperform	$50.34B	10.69	28.29%	1.40%	9.42%	128.55%
COF	77 Outperform	$139.23B	18.26	7.90%	1.10%	6.98%	-6.76%
AXP	77 Outperform	$222.07B	22.14	34.02%	1.03%	8.45%	17.89%
SYF	72 Outperform	$26.53B	9.57	18.60%	1.73%	1.22%	4.96%
ALLY	68 Neutral	$12.39B	29.65	3.84%	2.97%	-2.99%	-43.64%
OMF	68 Neutral	$7.01B	12.47	17.46%	7.06%	9.07%	―
Sector *	64 Neutral	$6.51B	11.17	7.19%	226.02%	23.75%	4.96%

Capital One Financial Corporate Events

Capital One Announces New Stress Capital Buffer Requirement

On July 1, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation announced its preliminary Stress Capital Buffer Requirement (SCB) of 4.5 percent, effective October 1, 2025, as determined by the Federal Reserve’s 2025 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review process. This new SCB will replace the current 5.5 percent SCB, which remains in effect until September 30, 2025. The Federal Reserve proposed a rule change in April 2025 to average stress test results over two years for SCB calculation, but this has not yet been finalized, and the current SCB reflects the existing framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Eliminates Series P Preferred Stock

On June 30, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation eliminated its 6.125% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series P, by filing a Certificate of Elimination with the Delaware Secretary of State. This move, which involved redeeming all outstanding shares of the Series P Preferred Stock, impacts the company’s capital structure by reverting these shares to authorized but undesignated status.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Announces Redemption of Series P Stock

On June 25, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation announced the full redemption of its 6.125% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series P, and the corresponding depositary shares. This redemption will occur on June 30, 2025, at a price of $1,000 per depositary share, plus accrued but unpaid dividends. This move will cease all dividend accruals on the Series P Preferred Stock after the redemption date, impacting the company’s financial obligations and potentially influencing its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Financial to Participate in Morgan Stanley Conference

Capital One Financial Corporation announced its participation in the Morgan Stanley US Financials, Payments & CRE conference in New York on June 10, 2025. The event will feature a live audio webcast accessible through the company’s website, with the presentation replay available until June 24, 2025, highlighting the company’s commitment to transparency and investor engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Awards RSUs to CEO and Executives

On June 3, 2025, Capital One Financial‘s Compensation Committee and independent Board members approved one-time Restricted Stock Units awards for CEO Richard D. Fairbank and other executives to recognize their efforts in integrating the Discover business with Capital One. Fairbank received 153,351 RSUs valued at approximately $30 million, vesting in 2030, while other executives received varying amounts of RSUs vesting in 2028, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on leadership retention and integration success.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $245.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Completes Acquisition of Discover Financial

On May 18, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation completed its acquisition of Discover Financial Services, following a merger agreement announced on February 19, 2024. This strategic acquisition, approved by regulatory bodies and shareholders, aims to enhance Capital One’s offerings by integrating Discover’s networks and products, including Discover-branded credit cards. The merger involved significant stock and cash transactions, with Capital One assuming Discover’s financial obligations and expanding its board of directors to include former Discover directors. The transaction is expected to strengthen Capital One’s market position and drive innovation in financial services, while maintaining current customer accounts and banking relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Releases April 2025 Financial Metrics

Capital One Financial Corporation released its Monthly Charge-Off and Delinquency Metrics for April 2025, highlighting key financial indicators for its credit card and consumer banking segments. The report shows a net charge-off rate of 5.66% for domestic credit cards and 1.01% for auto loans, with delinquency rates of 3.95% and 4.86% respectively, indicating the company’s ongoing management of credit risk and loan performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Financial Holds Annual Stockholder Meeting

On May 8, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation held its Annual Stockholder Meeting where stockholders elected several directors to the board, approved executive compensation, and ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the accounting firm for 2025. A shareholder proposal regarding golden parachute arrangements did not receive majority support, indicating a lack of consensus among stockholders on this issue.

Capital One Releases March 2025 Financial Metrics

Capital One Financial Corporation released its monthly charge-off and delinquency metrics for March 2025. The report highlights the company’s financial health, with specific metrics on net charge-offs and delinquency rates for its credit card and auto loan segments, providing insights into its operational performance and potential impacts on stakeholders.