Capital One Financial (COF)
NYSE:COF
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Capital One Financial
(NYSE:COF)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$191.00
▼(-0.76% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/08/26
The score is primarily constrained by sharply weaker recent profitability and weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings call and corporate updates provide partial support via strong liquidity/capital return and strategic progress on Discover/Brex, but the stock’s high P/E and modest dividend yield limit valuation support.
Positive Factors
Strong liquidity and CET1 capital
Elevated liquidity reserves and a CET1 ratio around 14% provide durable loss-absorption and regulatory cushion. This supports sustained capital returns, acquisition flexibility and funding resilience across economic cycles, reducing refinancing and funding stress risk over months.
Negative Factors
Material profitability compression
A marked drop in net margin and ROE signals a meaningful erosion of earnings power. Persistent lower profitability reduces retained earnings, constrains capital buildup and makes it harder to fund growth or absorb credit shocks without further raising leverage or cutting returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong liquidity and CET1 capital
Elevated liquidity reserves and a CET1 ratio around 14% provide durable loss-absorption and regulatory cushion. This supports sustained capital returns, acquisition flexibility and funding resilience across economic cycles, reducing refinancing and funding stress risk over months.
Read all positive factors
Capital One Financial (COF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$119.70B
Dividend Yield1.05%
Average Volume (3M)5.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)53.4
Beta (1Y)1.35
Revenue Growth19.39%
EPS Growth-77.61%
CountryUS
Employees76,300
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.86
Shares Outstanding621,931,600
10 Day Avg. Volume3,699,623
30 Day Avg. Volume5,204,561
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.75
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio5.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.66
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.50
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$265.78Price Target Upside38.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)20.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$63.51B
Capital One Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One Bank (USA), National Association; and Capital One, National Association, which provides various financial products and services in the United ...
How the Company Makes Money
Capital One makes money primarily by earning interest income and collecting fees from its lending and banking activities, and secondarily through other financial-service revenues.
1) Net interest income (core earnings driver)
- Credit card lendin...
Capital One Financial Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Assets
Shows the total value of assets owned by the company, providing insight into its financial strength, investment capacity, and potential for generating future income.
Shows the total value of assets owned by the company, providing insight into its financial strength, investment capacity, and potential for generating future income.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCapital One Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: strong strategic progress (Discover integration, definitive Brex acquisition), substantial YoY top-line growth driven by the Discover transaction, solid liquidity and capital returns (repurchases and higher dividend). Offsetting these positives are notable near-term headwinds — a large Q4 provision for credit losses, higher noninterest expenses and marketing, a QoQ dip in NIM, and near-term EPS dilution and capital impact from the Brex deal. Management emphasizes long-term upside from strategic investments but acknowledges near-term pressure on efficiency and earnings.Positive Updates
Q4 and Full-Year Earnings
Q4 net income $2.1B; EPS $3.26 diluted. Full-year net income $2.5B; EPS $4.30. Adjusted Q4 EPS (net of home loan sale and other items) $3.86; full-year adjusted EPS $19.61.
Negative Updates
Large Provision for Credit Losses in Q4
Provision for credit losses $4.1B in Q4, up about $1.4B vs Q3. Drivers included a $302M allowance build (vs prior quarter release) and a $360M increase in net charge-offs.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q4 and Full-Year Earnings
Q4 net income $2.1B; EPS $3.26 diluted. Full-year net income $2.5B; EPS $4.30. Adjusted Q4 EPS (net of home loan sale and other items) $3.86; full-year adjusted EPS $19.61.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated that it remains on track to deliver the expected Discover integration synergies and that its earnings power on the other side of the Discover deal is unchanged (inclusive of the announced Brex acquisition); Brex will be acquired for $5.15 billion (~3.5% of market cap), will be initially EPS-dilutive, is expected to reduce CET1 by a little more than 40 basis points, and will have no impact on the pace or magnitude of quarterly share repurchases (Q4 repurchases were $2.5 billion, with ~$14 billion remaining authorization); management also noted Q1 seasonality likely pressures NIM (about an ~18 bp headwind from two fewer days plus higher cash from the home-loan sale), and said it will provide purchase accounting marks and amortization schedules after close—all while reporting current metrics such as Q4 earnings of $2.1 billion ($3.26 GAAP EPS; $3.86 adjusted), full-year adjusted EPS $19.61, Q4 NIM 8.26% (-10 bps), liquidity reserves ~ $144 billion (prelim. LCR 173%), allowance $23.4 billion (coverage 5.16%), provision $4.1 billion, and CET1 14.3% (down ~10 bps).Capital One Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 69.25B | 53.94B | 49.48B | 38.37B | 32.03B |
| Gross Profit | 32.78B | 27.40B | 26.36B | 28.40B | 32.38B |
| EBITDA | 7.54B | 9.15B | 9.27B | 12.45B | 19.29B |
| Net Income | 2.45B | 4.75B | 4.89B | 7.36B | 12.39B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 669.01B | 490.14B | 478.46B | 455.25B | 432.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 61.71B | 47.08B | 122.41B | 107.78B | 117.01B |
| Total Debt | 51.00B | 45.55B | 49.86B | 48.75B | 43.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 555.39B | 429.36B | 420.38B | 402.67B | 371.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 113.62B | 60.78B | 58.09B | 52.58B | 61.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 26.14B | 16.95B | 19.61B | 12.88B | 11.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 27.72B | 18.16B | 20.57B | 13.81B | 12.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -444.00M | -26.41B | -21.92B | -29.74B | -31.50B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -8.85B | 8.17B | 13.84B | 25.13B | 474.00M |
Capital One Financial Technical Analysis
Neutral
192.46
Price Trends
197.24
Negative
214.47
Negative
215.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.22
Negative
55.22
Neutral
65.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 192.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 182.08, below the 50-day MA of 197.24, and below the 200-day MA of 215.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for COF.
Capital One Financial Risk Analysis
Capital One Financial disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Capital One Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Capital One Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $217.20B | 23.73 | 33.49% | 0.84% | 8.14% | 9.55% | |
68 Neutral | $6.56B | 10.25 | 23.40% | 6.07% | 9.51% | 29.38% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $25.02B | 8.41 | 21.09% | 1.34% | -6.38% | 19.65% | |
63 Neutral | $21.03B | 62.56 | 5.87% | ― | 22.40% | 215.81% | |
57 Neutral | $119.70B | 53.42 | 2.44% | 1.05% | 19.39% | -77.61% | |
51 Neutral | $12.84B | 16.52 | 5.74% | 2.58% | -6.89% | -33.20% |
* Financial Sector Average
COF
Capital One Financial
192.46
31.25
19.39%
AXP
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316.34
72.01
29.47%
ALLY
Ally Financial
41.71
10.73
34.63%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
71.97
26.17
57.16%
OMF
OneMain Holdings
56.01
16.13
40.45%
SOFI
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16.49
5.97
56.75%
Capital One Financial Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Capital One Completes Brex Acquisition, Highlights Leadership Incentives
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Capital One Financial completed its previously announced acquisition of corporate spend management platform Brex Inc., paying approximately $2.56 billion in cash plus 10,646,306 shares of its common stock, with the cash component...
Business Operations and Strategy
Capital One to Present at UBS Financial Services Conference
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
Capital One Financial Corporation, a major U.S. provider of credit cards, consumer banking, and commercial financial services, continues to emphasize its position in the financial services sector with a focus on technology-enabled banking solution...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capital One updates executive pay and severance programs
Positive
Feb 6, 2026
On February 3, 2026, Capital One Financial’s board and compensation committee approved 2026 compensation plans and 2025 incentive awards for Chief Executive Officer Richard Fairbank and other named executive officers, continuing the company&...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Capital One Completes $3 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Capital One Financial Corporation completed a $3 billion public debt offering, issuing $1.5 billion of 4.722% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2032 and $1.5 billion of 5.399% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2037...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Capital One to Acquire Brex in $5.15 Billion Deal
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
On January 22, 2026, Capital One announced a definitive agreement to acquire Brex Inc., an AI-native corporate card and spend-management platform, in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $5.15 billion, comprising approximately $2.75 billion in cash and...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Capital One Reports Year-End 2025 Credit Quality Metrics
Neutral
Jan 22, 2026
For the month ended December 31, 2025, Capital One Financial reported detailed monthly credit quality metrics across its core lending businesses, highlighting charge-off and delinquency performance in its credit card and consumer auto loan portfol...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.