Capital One Financial (COF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $137.77B
• Dividend Yield: 1.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.83M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: 6.98%
• EPS Growth: -6.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 53,900
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 5.48
• Shares Outstanding: 639,517,330
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,368,929
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,829,065
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.75
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.41
• 1Y Price Target: $257.82
• Price Target Upside: 19.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $238.00 ▲(10.08% Upside)

Capital One Financial's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive technical trends. However, valuation concerns and challenges from the Discover acquisition impact the score. The company's ability to manage integration costs and improve profitability will be key to future performance.

Positive Factors

Credit Performance

Capital One's credit improvement metrics are strong, with notable improvements in net charge-offs and delinquencies.

Earnings

Capital One shares are up 3% following adjusted EPS that beat consensus by 30%.

Shareholder Value

Capital One's strong CET1 ratio of 14.0% supports the plan to repurchase 10% of its shares annually through 2027, potentially enhancing shareholder value.

Negative Factors

Capital Targets

Bears may point to the absence of capital targets and the integration costs being somewhat higher versus initial expectations.

Integration Costs

Integration expenses for the Discover acquisition will be higher than previously guided, which is a disappointment.

Capital One Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One Bank (USA), National Association; and Capital One, National Association, which provides various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company also offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and treasury management and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Capital One generates revenue through various key streams, primarily from interest income on loans, including credit card balances, auto loans, and personal loans. The company earns interest on the outstanding balances that customers carry on their credit cards, which can be substantial given the higher interest rates typically associated with credit card lending. Additionally, Capital One collects fees from cardholders, including annual fees, late payment fees, and foreign transaction fees. The company also makes money from interchange fees, which are charged to merchants when customers use their Capital One credit cards for purchases. Capital One's partnerships with various retailers and service providers enhance its offerings through co-branded credit cards, further driving revenue through shared marketing and customer acquisition efforts. Furthermore, the company has a growing presence in the banking sector, generating fees from deposit accounts and other banking services. Overall, Capital One's diversified revenue model, focused on both lending and deposit services, allows it to maintain strong financial performance.

Capital One Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Capital One Financial shows strong revenue growth and efficient cash flow management, with a robust gross profit margin. However, the net profit margin and ROE indicate room for improvement in cost management and maximizing shareholder value.

Income Statement

Capital One Financial demonstrates strong revenue growth with a notable increase from $28.4B in 2022 to $54.3B TTM. The gross profit margin is robust at 52.2%, but the net profit margin is moderate at 9.0%, indicating room for improvement in cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest operational efficiency, though a slight decline in EBIT margin compared to previous periods could be a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a solid equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.66, reflecting a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on Equity is healthy at 7.7%, although slightly lower than desired for maximizing shareholder value. The equity ratio at 12.9% indicates a reasonable level of financial stability, though there could be potential risks if the market conditions change.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong at $19.8B TTM with a significant free cash flow of $18.5B, highlighting effective cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high, indicating that the company efficiently converts earnings into cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also favorable, suggesting strong cash earnings quality.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	54.25B	53.94B	49.48B	38.37B	32.03B	31.64B
Gross Profit	28.31B	27.40B	26.36B	28.40B	32.38B	18.26B
EBITDA	9.30B	9.15B	9.27B	12.45B	19.29B	6.70B
Net Income	4.87B	4.75B	4.89B	7.36B	12.39B	2.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	493.60B	490.14B	478.46B	455.25B	432.38B	421.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	52.88B	47.08B	122.41B	107.78B	117.01B	140.95B
Total Debt	41.77B	45.55B	49.86B	48.75B	43.09B	40.54B
Total Liabilities	430.06B	429.36B	420.38B	402.67B	371.35B	361.40B
Stockholders Equity	63.54B	60.78B	58.09B	52.58B	61.03B	60.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	18.51B	16.95B	19.61B	12.88B	11.61B	15.99B
Operating Cash Flow	19.82B	18.16B	20.57B	13.81B	12.31B	16.70B
Investing Cash Flow	-27.24B	-26.41B	-21.92B	-29.74B	-31.50B	-14.84B
Financing Cash Flow	4.89B	8.17B	13.84B	25.13B	474.00M	25.16B

Capital One Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 216.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 216.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 213.11, above the 50-day MA of 210.51, and above the 200-day MA of 189.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COF.

Capital One Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DFS	78 Outperform		―		―	9.42%	128.55%
SYF	78 Outperform	$26.60B	8.69	20.23%	1.53%	-3.16%	14.60%
AXP	77 Outperform	$212.57B	21.45	32.58%	0.99%	8.03%	6.26%
OMF	76 Outperform	$6.81B	10.35	20.47%	7.15%	9.41%	13.98%
COF	70 Outperform	$137.77B	18.09	7.90%	1.11%	6.98%	-6.76%
Sector *	62 Neutral	C$15.86B	6.93	15.47%	5.98%	21.65%	-3.45%
ALLY	52 Neutral	$11.96B	25.24	4.18%	3.13%	-5.33%	-32.99%

Capital One Financial Corporate Events

Capital One Releases July 2025 Financial Metrics

Capital One Financial Corporation released its Monthly Charge-Off and Delinquency Metrics for July 2025, detailing the performance of its credit card and auto loan portfolios. The report highlights the net charge-off rates and delinquency rates, providing insights into the company’s financial health and risk management strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Reports Decrease in Charge-Offs Post-Acquisition

In June 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation reported its monthly charge-off and delinquency metrics, highlighting a decrease in net charge-offs due to its acquisition of Discover Financial Services. The acquisition led to a reduction in net charge-offs by approximately $39 million and adjusted the net charge-off rates for Discover Domestic and Total Domestic Card. Additionally, the alignment of calculation methodologies between Capital One and Discover resulted in a decrease in the 30+ day performing delinquency rates for June.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Announces New Stress Capital Buffer Requirement

On July 1, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation announced its preliminary Stress Capital Buffer Requirement (SCB) of 4.5 percent, effective October 1, 2025, as determined by the Federal Reserve’s 2025 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review process. This new SCB will replace the current 5.5 percent SCB, which remains in effect until September 30, 2025. The Federal Reserve proposed a rule change in April 2025 to average stress test results over two years for SCB calculation, but this has not yet been finalized, and the current SCB reflects the existing framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Eliminates Series P Preferred Stock

On June 30, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation eliminated its 6.125% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series P, by filing a Certificate of Elimination with the Delaware Secretary of State. This move, which involved redeeming all outstanding shares of the Series P Preferred Stock, impacts the company’s capital structure by reverting these shares to authorized but undesignated status.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Announces Redemption of Series P Stock

On June 25, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation announced the full redemption of its 6.125% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series P, and the corresponding depositary shares. This redemption will occur on June 30, 2025, at a price of $1,000 per depositary share, plus accrued but unpaid dividends. This move will cease all dividend accruals on the Series P Preferred Stock after the redemption date, impacting the company’s financial obligations and potentially influencing its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Financial to Participate in Morgan Stanley Conference

Capital One Financial Corporation announced its participation in the Morgan Stanley US Financials, Payments & CRE conference in New York on June 10, 2025. The event will feature a live audio webcast accessible through the company’s website, with the presentation replay available until June 24, 2025, highlighting the company’s commitment to transparency and investor engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Awards RSUs to CEO and Executives

On June 3, 2025, Capital One Financial‘s Compensation Committee and independent Board members approved one-time Restricted Stock Units awards for CEO Richard D. Fairbank and other executives to recognize their efforts in integrating the Discover business with Capital One. Fairbank received 153,351 RSUs valued at approximately $30 million, vesting in 2030, while other executives received varying amounts of RSUs vesting in 2028, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on leadership retention and integration success.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $245.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Completes Acquisition of Discover Financial

On May 18, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation completed its acquisition of Discover Financial Services, following a merger agreement announced on February 19, 2024. This strategic acquisition, approved by regulatory bodies and shareholders, aims to enhance Capital One’s offerings by integrating Discover’s networks and products, including Discover-branded credit cards. The merger involved significant stock and cash transactions, with Capital One assuming Discover’s financial obligations and expanding its board of directors to include former Discover directors. The transaction is expected to strengthen Capital One’s market position and drive innovation in financial services, while maintaining current customer accounts and banking relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Releases April 2025 Financial Metrics

Capital One Financial Corporation released its Monthly Charge-Off and Delinquency Metrics for April 2025, highlighting key financial indicators for its credit card and consumer banking segments. The report shows a net charge-off rate of 5.66% for domestic credit cards and 1.01% for auto loans, with delinquency rates of 3.95% and 4.86% respectively, indicating the company’s ongoing management of credit risk and loan performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.