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Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)
:COF

Capital One Financial (COF) AI Stock Analysis

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Capital One Financial

(NYSE:COF)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$223.00
▲(15.00%Upside)
Capital One Financial's stock score of 76 reflects strong financial performance and positive technical indicators, tempered by fair valuation metrics. The successful acquisition of Discover and strategic leadership moves bolster the outlook, despite some profitability and revenue challenges.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
If Capital One can move 20% of its credit card volumes to the Discover network, it can earn an incremental $270M of revenues.
Strategic Acquisition
Increased confidence in the strategic benefits from the Discover acquisition suggests Capital One can leverage the Discover brand to drive card growth.
Negative Factors
Consumer Concerns
41% of all respondents and 73% of premium cardholders expressed concerns around Discover card acceptance.
Integration Costs
Integration expenses are uncertain in terms of modeling, leading to some uncertainty in the financial outlook.

Capital One Financial (COF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Capital One Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCapital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One Bank (USA), National Association; and Capital One, National Association, which provides various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company also offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and treasury management and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
How the Company Makes MoneyCapital One generates revenue primarily through interest income from its credit card and loan products, which includes credit card loans, auto loans, and other consumer loans. Interest income is earned on the outstanding balances of these loans. The company also earns money through non-interest income, which includes fees from interchange, annual fees on credit cards, and service charges on deposit accounts. Additionally, Capital One benefits from strategic partnerships and co-branded card agreements with various retailers and organizations, enhancing its customer base and revenue potential. Factors such as credit risk management, economic conditions, and regulatory changes significantly impact its earnings.

Capital One Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 14.30%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Capital One's earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, improved credit metrics, and strategic progress with the Discover acquisition. However, challenges such as revenue decline, increased noninterest expenses, and specific segment challenges were noted. The overall sentiment is balanced with significant achievements and areas of concern.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Capital One reported Q1 earnings of $1.4 billion, or $3.45 per diluted common share, with adjusted earnings per share of $4.06. Pre-provision earnings were largely flat at $4.1 billion, and adjusted pre-provision earnings increased by 2% from the previous quarter.
Improved Credit Performance
The provision for credit losses decreased by $273 million compared to the prior quarter, with a decrease driven by $148 million lower net charge-offs and a $123 million larger reserve release.
Allowance Release
Capital One released $368 million in allowance this quarter, bringing the allowance balance to $15.9 billion. The total portfolio coverage ratio decreased by 5 basis points to 4.91%.
Liquidity and Capital Position
Total liquidity reserves increased to $131 billion, with the cash position ending at approximately $49 billion. The preliminary average liquidity coverage ratio during the first quarter was 152%, and the common equity Tier 1 capital ratio ended the quarter at 13.6%.
Domestic Card Business Growth
The Domestic Card business delivered top-line growth with year-over-year purchase volume growth of 5% (6% adjusted for leap year), and revenue was up 7% from the first quarter of 2024.
Auto Business Performance
Auto originations were up 22% from the prior year quarter, with ending loan balances increasing by $3.8 billion or about 5% year-over-year.
Discover Acquisition Progress
Capital One received regulatory approval for the acquisition of Discover, with the transaction expected to close on May 18. The acquisition is expected to create a leading consumer banking and payments platform.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Revenue in the linked quarter declined by 2% due to two fewer days in the quarter.
Increase in Noninterest Expense
Domestic Card noninterest expense increased by 13% compared to the first quarter of 2024, driven by higher operating expense and marketing costs.
Commercial Banking Challenges
First quarter revenue in the Commercial Banking segment was down 7% from the linked quarter, and non-interest expense decreased by about 6%.
Charge-Off Rate Increase
The charge-off rate for the Domestic Card segment was 6.19%, up 25 basis points year-over-year, largely impacted by the end of the Walmart loss sharing agreement.
Company Guidance
During the Capital One Q1 2025 earnings call, guidance was provided that included several key metrics and expectations. Capital One reported first-quarter earnings of $1.4 billion, or $3.45 per diluted common share. Adjusted earnings per share stood at $4.06 after accounting for legal reserve activities and Discover integration expenses. The company's pre-provision earnings were $4.1 billion, stable sequentially, with a 2% increase on an adjusted basis. Revenue saw a 2% decline due to fewer days in the quarter, whereas noninterest expenses fell by 5% adjusted, driven by lower marketing and operating costs. The provision for credit losses decreased to $2.4 billion, with a reduction of $273 million from the previous quarter, attributed to $148 million in lower net charge-offs and a $123 million larger reserve release. The allowance balance was reduced by $368 million, resulting in a total coverage ratio decrease of 5 basis points to 4.91%. Liquidity reserves were up to $131 billion, with a cash position increase to $49 billion. The net interest margin was reported at 6.93%, and the common equity Tier 1 capital ratio rose to 13.6%, with future expectations for synergies from the Discover acquisition to be achieved over 24 months post-closing.

Capital One Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Capital One Financial demonstrates robust revenue growth and a strong equity position, with improvements in leverage ratios. However, profitability margins and cash flow growth have shown some decline, indicating a need for increased operational efficiency.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Capital One Financial has shown strong revenue growth with a 25% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin remains stable as total revenue equals gross profit, indicating effective cost management. However, net profit margin has declined slightly due to lower net income, and EBIT margin is low, suggesting room for improvement in operational efficiency. Overall, revenue growth is a strong positive, offset by lower profitability margins.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company exhibits a solid equity ratio at approximately 12.4%, indicating a sturdy financial foundation. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly as total debt was reduced to zero by 2024, demonstrating robust financial management. Return on equity is healthy at around 7.8%, although slightly lower than prior years, reflecting a minor decline in net income versus equity. Overall, the balance sheet reflects strong equity position and improved leverage.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The cash flow analysis indicates a decrease in free cash flow compared to the previous year, but operating cash flow remains strong. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high, suggesting effective cash generation relative to earnings. However, the decrease in free cash flow growth rate from 2023 to 2024 is a concern. Overall, cash flow stability is maintained, but growth momentum has slowed slightly.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
27.40B36.79B28.40B30.43B31.64B
Gross Profit
27.40B25.77B28.40B30.43B18.26B
EBIT
5.91B-4.00M-4.00M17.38B5.20B
EBITDA
9.15B9.27B12.45B19.29B6.70B
Net Income Common Stockholders
4.75B4.89B7.36B12.39B2.71B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
47.08B43.30B107.78B117.01B140.95B
Total Assets
490.14B478.46B455.25B432.38B421.60B
Total Debt
45.55B49.32B47.83B42.27B39.87B
Net Debt
2.32B6.02B16.98B20.52B-638.00M
Total Liabilities
429.36B420.38B402.67B371.35B361.40B
Stockholders Equity
60.78B58.09B52.58B61.03B60.20B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
16.95B19.61B12.88B11.61B15.99B
Operating Cash Flow
18.16B20.57B13.81B12.31B16.70B
Investing Cash Flow
-26.41B-21.92B-29.74B-31.50B-14.84B
Financing Cash Flow
8.17B13.84B25.13B474.00M25.16B

Capital One Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price193.92
Price Trends
50DMA
184.58
Positive
100DMA
185.85
Positive
200DMA
176.66
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.73
Positive
RSI
51.69
Neutral
STOCH
27.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 193.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 193.52, above the 50-day MA of 184.58, and above the 200-day MA of 176.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.73 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COF.

Capital One Financial Risk Analysis

Capital One Financial disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Capital One Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Capital One Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
COCOF
76
Outperform
$126.50B16.597.90%1.21%6.98%-6.76%
AXAXP
76
Outperform
$206.13B20.5534.02%1.11%8.45%17.89%
SYSYF
71
Outperform
$23.32B8.4118.60%1.96%1.22%4.96%
OMOMF
68
Neutral
$6.29B11.1917.46%7.87%9.07%
64
Neutral
$12.86B9.797.84%78.10%12.05%-7.99%
63
Neutral
$11.25B26.913.84%3.28%-2.99%-43.64%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
COF
Capital One Financial
193.92
58.47
43.17%
AXP
American Express
292.81
66.07
29.14%
ALLY
Ally Financial
36.13
-3.01
-7.69%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
60.28
17.48
40.84%
OMF
OneMain Holdings
52.54
8.00
17.96%

Capital One Financial Corporate Events

Other
Capital One Financial to Participate in Morgan Stanley Conference
Neutral
Jun 9, 2025

Capital One Financial Corporation announced its participation in the Morgan Stanley US Financials, Payments & CRE conference in New York on June 10, 2025. The event will feature a live audio webcast accessible through the company’s website, with the presentation replay available until June 24, 2025, highlighting the company’s commitment to transparency and investor engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Capital One Awards RSUs to CEO and Executives
Positive
Jun 5, 2025

On June 3, 2025, Capital One Financial‘s Compensation Committee and independent Board members approved one-time Restricted Stock Units awards for CEO Richard D. Fairbank and other executives to recognize their efforts in integrating the Discover business with Capital One. Fairbank received 153,351 RSUs valued at approximately $30 million, vesting in 2030, while other executives received varying amounts of RSUs vesting in 2028, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on leadership retention and integration success.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $245.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Capital One Completes Acquisition of Discover Financial
Positive
May 19, 2025

On May 18, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation completed its acquisition of Discover Financial Services, following a merger agreement announced on February 19, 2024. This strategic acquisition, approved by regulatory bodies and shareholders, aims to enhance Capital One’s offerings by integrating Discover’s networks and products, including Discover-branded credit cards. The merger involved significant stock and cash transactions, with Capital One assuming Discover’s financial obligations and expanding its board of directors to include former Discover directors. The transaction is expected to strengthen Capital One’s market position and drive innovation in financial services, while maintaining current customer accounts and banking relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Capital One Releases April 2025 Financial Metrics
Neutral
May 15, 2025

Capital One Financial Corporation released its Monthly Charge-Off and Delinquency Metrics for April 2025, highlighting key financial indicators for its credit card and consumer banking segments. The report shows a net charge-off rate of 5.66% for domestic credit cards and 1.01% for auto loans, with delinquency rates of 3.95% and 4.86% respectively, indicating the company’s ongoing management of credit risk and loan performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Capital One Financial Holds Annual Stockholder Meeting
Neutral
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation held its Annual Stockholder Meeting where stockholders elected several directors to the board, approved executive compensation, and ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the accounting firm for 2025. A shareholder proposal regarding golden parachute arrangements did not receive majority support, indicating a lack of consensus among stockholders on this issue.

Financial Disclosures
Capital One Releases March 2025 Financial Metrics
Neutral
Apr 22, 2025

Capital One Financial Corporation released its monthly charge-off and delinquency metrics for March 2025. The report highlights the company’s financial health, with specific metrics on net charge-offs and delinquency rates for its credit card and auto loan segments, providing insights into its operational performance and potential impacts on stakeholders.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.