Capital One Financial (COF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $135.16B
• Dividend Yield: 1.14%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.49M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 108.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.26
• Revenue Growth: 10.51%
• EPS Growth: -81.56%
• Country: US
• Employees: 53,900
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 5.48
• Shares Outstanding: 639,517,330
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,721,248
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,490,636
• PEG Ratio: -4.65
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.27
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 52.37
• 1Y Price Target: $253.63
• Price Target Upside: 20.01% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $208.00 ▼(-1.58% Downside)

Capital One Financial's overall stock score is driven by mixed financial performance and bearish technical indicators. The high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, while the earnings call highlights both growth potential and financial challenges. The company's ability to address profitability and enhance cash flow will be crucial for future stability.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Capital One's services and effective business expansion, supporting long-term financial health.

Successful Acquisition

The successful acquisition and integration of Discover can enhance Capital One's market position and operational scale, providing long-term strategic benefits.

Improved Credit Performance

Improved credit performance reflects better risk management and customer credit behavior, enhancing the company's financial stability and profitability.

Negative Factors

Net Loss in GAAP Terms

The significant net loss due to acquisition-related costs highlights financial strain, potentially impacting future profitability and investment capacity.

Higher Integration Costs

Higher-than-expected integration costs could pressure margins and delay the realization of synergies, affecting short to medium-term financial performance.

Increased Provision for Credit Losses

Increased provisions for credit losses suggest potential credit quality issues, which could lead to future financial challenges and require careful management.

Capital One Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One Bank (USA), National Association; and Capital One, National Association, which provides various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company also offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and treasury management and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Capital One generates revenue through various key streams, primarily from interest income on loans, including credit card balances, auto loans, and personal loans. The company earns interest on the outstanding balances that customers carry on their credit cards, which can be substantial given the higher interest rates typically associated with credit card lending. Additionally, Capital One collects fees from cardholders, including annual fees, late payment fees, and foreign transaction fees. The company also makes money from interchange fees, which are charged to merchants when customers use their Capital One credit cards for purchases. Capital One's partnerships with various retailers and service providers enhance its offerings through co-branded credit cards, further driving revenue through shared marketing and customer acquisition efforts. Furthermore, the company has a growing presence in the banking sector, generating fees from deposit accounts and other banking services. Overall, Capital One's diversified revenue model, focused on both lending and deposit services, allows it to maintain strong financial performance.

Capital One Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Capital One Financial shows mixed financial performance. Revenue growth is positive, but profitability has declined, impacting overall financial health. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but return on equity needs improvement. Cash flow management is effective, yet cash generation requires enhancement.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in profitability with a net profit margin of 0% and negative EBIT margin, reflecting operational challenges. However, revenue growth remains positive at 5.84%, suggesting some resilience in revenue generation. Historical data shows fluctuating margins, with a significant drop in gross profit margin from 2022 to TTM. The company needs to address profitability issues to improve its financial health.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47 in the TTM period, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity has dropped to 0%, highlighting a need for better utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability but requires improved profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a slight decline in free cash flow growth at -1.55% in the TTM period, indicating potential cash generation challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, reflecting reduced efficiency in converting income to cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains high, suggesting effective cash management. The company should focus on enhancing cash flow generation to support operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	57.42B	53.94B	49.48B	38.37B	32.03B	31.64B
Gross Profit	23.86B	27.40B	26.36B	28.40B	32.38B	18.26B
EBITDA	2.92B	9.15B	9.27B	12.45B	19.29B	6.70B
Net Income	0.00	4.75B	4.89B	7.36B	12.39B	2.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	658.97B	490.14B	478.46B	455.25B	432.38B	421.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	63.14B	47.08B	122.41B	107.78B	117.01B	140.95B
Total Debt	52.67B	45.55B	49.86B	48.75B	43.09B	40.54B
Total Liabilities	548.01B	429.36B	420.38B	402.67B	371.35B	361.40B
Stockholders Equity	110.96B	60.78B	58.09B	52.58B	61.03B	60.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	18.22B	16.95B	19.61B	12.88B	11.61B	15.99B
Operating Cash Flow	19.64B	18.16B	20.57B	13.81B	12.31B	16.70B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.24B	-26.41B	-21.92B	-29.74B	-31.50B	-14.84B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.65B	8.17B	13.84B	25.13B	474.00M	25.16B

Capital One Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 211.34
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 211.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 215.06, below the 50-day MA of 218.60, and above the 200-day MA of 198.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for COF.

Capital One Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AXP	81 Outperform	$241.21B	23.28	33.70%	0.91%	8.14%	9.55%
SYF	73 Outperform	$26.61B	7.81	21.52%	1.54%	-6.38%	19.65%
OMF	68 Neutral	$6.43B	9.78	20.47%	7.69%	9.41%	13.98%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
COF	55 Neutral	$135.16B	108.83	-0.07%	1.14%	10.51%	-81.56%
ALLY	54 Neutral	$12.26B	25.87	4.18%	3.01%	-5.33%	-32.99%

Capital One Financial Corporate Events

Capital One to Present at Barclays Conference

Capital One Financial Corporation announced its participation in the Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference in New York on September 9, 2025. The event will feature a presentation by the company, which will be accessible via a live audio webcast on their website, potentially impacting investor relations and stakeholder engagement.

Capital One Releases July 2025 Financial Metrics

Capital One Financial Corporation released its Monthly Charge-Off and Delinquency Metrics for July 2025, detailing the performance of its credit card and auto loan portfolios. The report highlights the net charge-off rates and delinquency rates, providing insights into the company’s financial health and risk management strategies.

Capital One Reports Decrease in Charge-Offs Post-Acquisition

In June 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation reported its monthly charge-off and delinquency metrics, highlighting a decrease in net charge-offs due to its acquisition of Discover Financial Services. The acquisition led to a reduction in net charge-offs by approximately $39 million and adjusted the net charge-off rates for Discover Domestic and Total Domestic Card. Additionally, the alignment of calculation methodologies between Capital One and Discover resulted in a decrease in the 30+ day performing delinquency rates for June.

Capital One Announces New Stress Capital Buffer Requirement

On July 1, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation announced its preliminary Stress Capital Buffer Requirement (SCB) of 4.5 percent, effective October 1, 2025, as determined by the Federal Reserve’s 2025 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review process. This new SCB will replace the current 5.5 percent SCB, which remains in effect until September 30, 2025. The Federal Reserve proposed a rule change in April 2025 to average stress test results over two years for SCB calculation, but this has not yet been finalized, and the current SCB reflects the existing framework.

Capital One Eliminates Series P Preferred Stock

On June 30, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation eliminated its 6.125% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series P, by filing a Certificate of Elimination with the Delaware Secretary of State. This move, which involved redeeming all outstanding shares of the Series P Preferred Stock, impacts the company’s capital structure by reverting these shares to authorized but undesignated status.

Capital One Announces Redemption of Series P Stock

On June 25, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation announced the full redemption of its 6.125% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series P, and the corresponding depositary shares. This redemption will occur on June 30, 2025, at a price of $1,000 per depositary share, plus accrued but unpaid dividends. This move will cease all dividend accruals on the Series P Preferred Stock after the redemption date, impacting the company’s financial obligations and potentially influencing its market positioning.

Capital One Financial to Participate in Morgan Stanley Conference

Capital One Financial Corporation announced its participation in the Morgan Stanley US Financials, Payments & CRE conference in New York on June 10, 2025. The event will feature a live audio webcast accessible through the company’s website, with the presentation replay available until June 24, 2025, highlighting the company’s commitment to transparency and investor engagement.