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Capital One Financial (COF)
NYSE:COF
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Capital One Financial (COF) AI Stock Analysis

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COF

Capital One Financial

(NYSE:COF)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$241.00
â–²(7.57% Upside)
Capital One Financial's overall stock score is driven by its stable financial performance and positive technical indicators. The successful acquisition of Discover and revenue growth are significant strengths. However, profitability challenges and higher integration costs from the acquisition weigh on the score. The fair valuation and neutral earnings call sentiment further moderate the overall assessment.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Capital One's services and successful integration of new acquisitions, supporting long-term expansion.
Successful Acquisition
The acquisition of Discover enhances Capital One's market position and credit performance, providing a strategic advantage in the financial services sector.
Improved Credit Performance
Improved credit metrics reflect effective risk management and operational efficiency, strengthening Capital One's financial stability.
Negative Factors
Net Loss
The significant net loss due to acquisition costs and credit provisions may impact profitability and shareholder returns in the near term.
Higher Integration Costs
Unexpectedly high integration costs could strain financial resources and delay the realization of anticipated synergies from the acquisition.
Increased Provision for Credit Losses
Rising provisions for credit losses suggest potential challenges in credit quality, which could affect future earnings and risk management.

Capital One Financial (COF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Capital One Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCapital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One Bank (USA), National Association; and Capital One, National Association, which provides various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company also offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and treasury management and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
How the Company Makes MoneyCapital One generates revenue through various key streams, primarily from interest income on loans, including credit card balances, auto loans, and personal loans. The company earns interest on the outstanding balances that customers carry on their credit cards, which can be substantial given the higher interest rates typically associated with credit card lending. Additionally, Capital One collects fees from cardholders, including annual fees, late payment fees, and foreign transaction fees. The company also makes money from interchange fees, which are charged to merchants when customers use their Capital One credit cards for purchases. Capital One's partnerships with various retailers and service providers enhance its offerings through co-branded credit cards, further driving revenue through shared marketing and customer acquisition efforts. Furthermore, the company has a growing presence in the banking sector, generating fees from deposit accounts and other banking services. Overall, Capital One's diversified revenue model, focused on both lending and deposit services, allows it to maintain strong financial performance.

Capital One Financial Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Assets
Total Assets
Shows the total value of assets owned by the company, providing insight into its financial strength, investment capacity, and potential for generating future income.
Chart InsightsCapital One Financial's total assets have shown a steady increase over the past few years, culminating in a significant jump in mid-2025. This surge suggests a strategic acquisition or substantial portfolio expansion, potentially positioning the company for enhanced market competitiveness. The lack of earnings call commentary leaves the specific drivers unclear, but the asset growth trajectory indicates a robust balance sheet and potential for increased revenue streams.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Capital One Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects significant achievements, particularly with the successful acquisition and integration of Discover, and strong revenue and earnings growth. However, these positive outcomes are tempered by the net loss due to accounting impacts and higher-than-expected integration costs. The credit performance shows improvement, but provisions for credit losses have increased. Overall, while there are promising signs of growth and integration success, the financial impact of these actions results in a neutral sentiment.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Revenue in the second quarter increased $2.5 billion or 25% compared to the first quarter. Adjusted revenue increased 26% or $2.6 billion. Pre-provision earnings in the second quarter were up 34% relative to the first quarter. Net of adjustments, pre-provision earnings increased by 40%.
Successful Discover Acquisition
Capital One completed the acquisition of Discover on May 18, which has been integrated into the company's segments. Discover's acquisition is expected to deliver $2.5 billion in total net synergies.
Strong Credit Card Segment Performance
Year-over-year purchase volume growth for the quarter was 22%, including $26.5 billion of Discover purchase volume. Excluding Discover, year-over-year purchase volume growth was about 6%.
Improved Credit Performance
The domestic card net charge-off rate was 5.25%, down 80 basis points from the prior year quarter. The 30-plus delinquency rate was 3.60%, down 54 basis points from the prior year.
Negative Updates
Net Loss in GAAP Terms
On a GAAP basis, Capital One had a net loss of $4.3 billion or a loss of $8.58 per diluted common share. This was significantly impacted by the Discover acquisition and related purchase accounting effects.
Higher Integration Costs
The integration costs for the Discover acquisition are expected to be somewhat higher than the previous estimate of $2.8 billion.
Increased Provision for Credit Losses
The provision for credit losses was $11.4 billion in the quarter. Excluding the $8.8 billion initial allowance build for Discover, provision for credit losses was $2.7 billion, an increase of $294 million compared to the prior quarter.
Company Guidance
During the Capital One Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided detailed guidance on the financial impacts of their recent acquisition of Discover. The acquisition, completed on May 18, integrated $98.3 billion in domestic card loans, $9.9 billion in personal loans, and $106.7 billion in deposits into Capital One's portfolio, with respective net fair value discounts of $220 million, $114 million, and $30 million. The amortization of these fair value marks reduced net interest income by $85 million for the quarter. Additionally, the company recognized $7.9 billion in home loans as held for sale. The integration also created several amortizing intangibles, including a $1 billion core deposit intangible and a $10.3 billion purchase credit card relationships intangible, contributing to a $255 million increase in noninterest expense. Capital One reported a net loss of $4.3 billion on a GAAP basis, mainly due to the $8.8 billion provision expense for non-purchased credit deteriorated loans. The acquisition's partial quarter impact resulted in $2 billion of revenue and a $6.4 billion net loss from continuing operations. Looking forward, the company anticipates a 90 basis point increase to the operating efficiency ratio and a 50 basis point increase to the total efficiency ratio due to financial reporting realignments and business changes.

Capital One Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Capital One Financial shows mixed financial performance. Revenue growth is positive, but profitability has declined, impacting overall financial health. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but return on equity needs improvement. Cash flow management is effective, yet cash generation requires enhancement.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
The income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in profitability with a net profit margin of 0% and negative EBIT margin, reflecting operational challenges. However, revenue growth remains positive at 5.84%, suggesting some resilience in revenue generation. Historical data shows fluctuating margins, with a significant drop in gross profit margin from 2022 to TTM. The company needs to address profitability issues to improve its financial health.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet is relatively stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47 in the TTM period, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity has dropped to 0%, highlighting a need for better utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability but requires improved profitability.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a slight decline in free cash flow growth at -1.55% in the TTM period, indicating potential cash generation challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, reflecting reduced efficiency in converting income to cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains high, suggesting effective cash management. The company should focus on enhancing cash flow generation to support operations.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue57.42B53.94B49.48B38.37B32.03B31.64B
Gross Profit23.86B27.40B26.36B28.40B32.38B18.26B
EBITDA2.92B9.15B9.27B12.45B19.29B6.70B
Net Income0.004.75B4.89B7.36B12.39B2.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets658.97B490.14B478.46B455.25B432.38B421.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments63.14B47.08B122.41B107.78B117.01B140.95B
Total Debt52.67B45.55B49.86B48.75B43.09B40.54B
Total Liabilities548.01B429.36B420.38B402.67B371.35B361.40B
Stockholders Equity110.96B60.78B58.09B52.58B61.03B60.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow18.22B16.95B19.61B12.88B11.61B15.99B
Operating Cash Flow19.64B18.16B20.57B13.81B12.31B16.70B
Investing Cash Flow-3.24B-26.41B-21.92B-29.74B-31.50B-14.84B
Financing Cash Flow-2.65B8.17B13.84B25.13B474.00M25.16B

Capital One Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price224.05
Price Trends
50DMA
218.86
Positive
100DMA
209.86
Positive
200DMA
195.98
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.56
Positive
RSI
52.36
Neutral
STOCH
32.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 224.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 224.38, above the 50-day MA of 218.86, and above the 200-day MA of 195.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COF.

Capital One Financial Risk Analysis

Capital One Financial disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Capital One Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Capital One Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$237.77B23.9931.40%0.89%8.03%6.26%
78
Outperform
$27.73B9.0621.10%1.48%-3.16%14.60%
76
Outperform
$6.96B10.5819.93%7.11%9.41%13.98%
69
Neutral
$143.28B115.37-0.07%1.07%10.51%-81.56%
58
Neutral
$12.36B26.092.36%2.99%-5.33%-32.99%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
COF
Capital One Financial
224.05
76.12
51.46%
AXP
American Express
341.68
73.39
27.35%
ALLY
Ally Financial
40.16
5.74
16.68%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
74.54
25.55
52.15%
OMF
OneMain Holdings
58.54
14.96
34.33%

Capital One Financial Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Capital One to Present at Barclays Conference
Neutral
Sep 8, 2025

Capital One Financial Corporation announced its participation in the Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference in New York on September 9, 2025. The event will feature a presentation by the company, which will be accessible via a live audio webcast on their website, potentially impacting investor relations and stakeholder engagement.

Financial Disclosures
Capital One Releases July 2025 Financial Metrics
Neutral
Aug 15, 2025

Capital One Financial Corporation released its Monthly Charge-Off and Delinquency Metrics for July 2025, detailing the performance of its credit card and auto loan portfolios. The report highlights the net charge-off rates and delinquency rates, providing insights into the company’s financial health and risk management strategies.

M&A TransactionsFinancial Disclosures
Capital One Reports Decrease in Charge-Offs Post-Acquisition
Positive
Jul 22, 2025

In June 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation reported its monthly charge-off and delinquency metrics, highlighting a decrease in net charge-offs due to its acquisition of Discover Financial Services. The acquisition led to a reduction in net charge-offs by approximately $39 million and adjusted the net charge-off rates for Discover Domestic and Total Domestic Card. Additionally, the alignment of calculation methodologies between Capital One and Discover resulted in a decrease in the 30+ day performing delinquency rates for June.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Capital One Announces New Stress Capital Buffer Requirement
Neutral
Jul 1, 2025

On July 1, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation announced its preliminary Stress Capital Buffer Requirement (SCB) of 4.5 percent, effective October 1, 2025, as determined by the Federal Reserve’s 2025 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review process. This new SCB will replace the current 5.5 percent SCB, which remains in effect until September 30, 2025. The Federal Reserve proposed a rule change in April 2025 to average stress test results over two years for SCB calculation, but this has not yet been finalized, and the current SCB reflects the existing framework.

Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capital One Eliminates Series P Preferred Stock
Neutral
Jun 30, 2025

On June 30, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation eliminated its 6.125% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series P, by filing a Certificate of Elimination with the Delaware Secretary of State. This move, which involved redeeming all outstanding shares of the Series P Preferred Stock, impacts the company’s capital structure by reverting these shares to authorized but undesignated status.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Capital One Announces Redemption of Series P Stock
Neutral
Jun 25, 2025

On June 25, 2025, Capital One Financial Corporation announced the full redemption of its 6.125% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series P, and the corresponding depositary shares. This redemption will occur on June 30, 2025, at a price of $1,000 per depositary share, plus accrued but unpaid dividends. This move will cease all dividend accruals on the Series P Preferred Stock after the redemption date, impacting the company’s financial obligations and potentially influencing its market positioning.

Other
Capital One Financial to Participate in Morgan Stanley Conference
Neutral
Jun 9, 2025

Capital One Financial Corporation announced its participation in the Morgan Stanley US Financials, Payments & CRE conference in New York on June 10, 2025. The event will feature a live audio webcast accessible through the company’s website, with the presentation replay available until June 24, 2025, highlighting the company’s commitment to transparency and investor engagement.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 09, 2025