Capital One Financial (COF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $139.18B
• Dividend Yield: 1.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.68M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 92.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.32
• Revenue Growth: 19.39%
• EPS Growth: -77.61%
• Country: US
• Employees: 53,900
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.86
• Shares Outstanding: 635,733,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,180,052
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,684,745
• PEG Ratio: -4.65
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.27
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.67
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 22.16
• 1Y Price Target: $280.42
• Price Target Upside: 25.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $230.00 ▲(2.83% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by decent underlying financial performance (growth and cash generation with improved leverage) but is held back by sharp profitability deterioration. Technicals are bearish (below key moving averages with negative MACD), and valuation is a major drag due to the very high P/E with a modest dividend yield. Earnings-call commentary is moderately supportive on long-term strategy and capital return, but near-term credit, expense, NIM, and dilution pressures temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Strong Free Cash Flow

Sustained 20%+ free cash flow growth indicates durable cash generation capacity independent of accounting EPS. That cash supports continued buybacks, dividend increases, M&A funding (e.g., Brex) and balance-sheet flexibility, enabling strategic investments without excessive leverage.

Robust Liquidity and Capital

Large liquidity buffers and a CET1 ratio above regulatory minima give the bank structural resilience to deposit volatility, credit cycles, and integration costs. This capital headroom supports ongoing repurchases and selective acquisitions while preserving regulatory compliance and funding flexibility.

Scale and Revenue Diversification

Discover integration materially expanded card volume, deposits and consumer banking revenue, improving product scale and cross-sell reach. Broader payment network volume and diversified loan/deposit mix reduce reliance on any single product and support more stable long-term revenue streams.

Negative Factors

Eroding Profitability

A sharp drop in net margin and ROE signals persistent pressure on core profitability. Even with revenue growth, lower margins reduce cash available for reinvestment and returns, making it harder to justify elevated ongoing investment spend without clearer near-term efficiency gains.

Rising Operating Expense Pressure

Sustained higher marketing, tech and integration spending creates upward pressure on the efficiency ratio. If revenue gains from investments take longer to materialize, elevated expense levels will impair structural operating leverage and compress margins over the medium term.

Credit Loss and Provision Risk

Large provisions and elevated card charge-offs point to durable consumer credit stress that can recur across cycles. Persistent higher loss rates increase allowance needs, reduce capital available for growth or returns, and can materially weaken earnings power over multiple quarters.

Capital One Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One Bank (USA), National Association; and Capital One, National Association, which provides various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company also offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and treasury management and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Capital One generates revenue primarily through interest income from its various lending products, including credit cards and loans. The company charges interest on outstanding balances on credit cards and loans, which constitutes a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, Capital One earns non-interest income through fees associated with credit card transactions, annual fees, and late payment fees. The company also benefits from interchange fees collected from merchants when customers use their credit cards. Partnerships with retailers and financial technology firms enhance its offerings and provide additional revenue opportunities. Capital One's investment in digital banking technology has also streamlined operations and reduced costs, further contributing to its profitability.

Capital One Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid top-line and free cash flow growth support stability, and leverage looks more conservative. However, profitability has weakened meaningfully (net margin compression and lower ROE), signaling near-term earnings quality and efficiency pressure.

Income Statement

Capital One Financial shows a solid revenue growth rate of 10.31% in the TTM, indicating strong top-line expansion. However, the net profit margin has decreased significantly to 2.24% from 8.81% in the previous year, reflecting pressure on profitability. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 45.74%, but the decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins suggests operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.45 in the TTM, indicating a more conservative leverage position compared to previous years. However, the return on equity has decreased to 1.62%, showing reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio remains stable, reflecting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Capital One Financial exhibits a strong free cash flow growth rate of 20.61% in the TTM, highlighting robust cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.05, suggesting potential challenges in converting earnings into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains high at 98.41%, indicating efficient cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	63.34B	53.94B	49.48B	38.37B	32.03B	31.64B
Gross Profit	28.97B	27.40B	26.36B	28.40B	32.38B	18.26B
EBITDA	6.11B	9.15B	9.27B	12.45B	19.29B	6.70B
Net Income	1.42B	4.75B	4.89B	7.36B	12.39B	2.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	661.88B	490.14B	478.46B	455.25B	432.38B	421.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	59.04B	47.08B	122.41B	107.78B	117.01B	140.95B
Total Debt	51.48B	45.55B	49.86B	48.75B	43.09B	40.54B
Total Liabilities	548.06B	429.36B	420.38B	402.67B	371.35B	361.40B
Stockholders Equity	113.81B	60.78B	58.09B	52.58B	61.03B	60.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	20.84B	16.95B	19.61B	12.88B	11.61B	15.99B
Operating Cash Flow	22.34B	18.16B	20.57B	13.81B	12.31B	16.70B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.88B	-26.41B	-21.92B	-29.74B	-31.50B	-14.84B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.64B	8.17B	13.84B	25.13B	474.00M	25.16B

Capital One Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 223.68
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 223.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 233.57, below the 50-day MA of 232.63, and above the 200-day MA of 214.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for COF.

Capital One Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OMF	79 Outperform	$7.72B	11.12	21.41%	6.07%	9.51%	29.38%
AXP	78 Outperform	$242.59B	22.90	33.76%	0.84%	8.14%	9.55%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SOFI	67 Neutral	$28.75B	59.87	5.66%	―	22.40%	215.81%
SYF	66 Neutral	$26.16B	7.83	21.18%	1.34%	-6.38%	19.65%
COF	60 Neutral	$139.18B	92.85	1.53%	1.05%	19.39%	-77.61%
ALLY	60 Neutral	$13.02B	17.84	5.80%	2.58%	-6.89%	-33.20%

Capital One Financial Corporate Events

Capital One Completes $3 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On February 2, 2026, Capital One Financial Corporation completed a $3 billion public debt offering, issuing $1.5 billion of 4.722% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2032 and $1.5 billion of 5.399% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2037 under an existing senior indenture structure. The transaction, executed through a syndicate of major underwriting banks, enhances Capital One’s long-term funding profile and provides additional capital flexibility, potentially supporting the company’s balance sheet management and growth initiatives in a competitive financial services market.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $265.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One to Acquire Brex in $5.15 Billion Deal

On January 22, 2026, Capital One announced a definitive agreement to acquire Brex Inc., an AI-native corporate card and spend-management platform, in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $5.15 billion, comprising approximately $2.75 billion in cash and about 10.6 million Capital One common shares. The transaction, expected to close in mid-2026 subject to customary regulatory approvals, will bring Brex’s integrated corporate credit cards, expense management software, and banking capabilities under Capital One’s umbrella, with Brex CEO Pedro Franceschi continuing to lead the business; the deal is positioned as a strategic move to accelerate Capital One’s push into business payments and intelligent finance solutions, enhancing its competitive standing in the corporate payments and spend-management market while potentially expanding its reach among U.S. businesses and high-growth companies already using Brex’s platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Reports Year-End 2025 Credit Quality Metrics

For the month ended December 31, 2025, Capital One Financial reported detailed monthly credit quality metrics across its core lending businesses, highlighting charge-off and delinquency performance in its credit card and consumer auto loan portfolios. Domestic credit card loans held for investment averaged $259.8 billion with period-end balances of $262.4 billion, generating $1.1 billion in net charge-offs at an annualized rate of 5.01% and a 30+ day performing delinquency rate of 3.99%, while auto loans averaged $83.3 billion with a 2.07% net charge-off rate, 5.23% 30+ day performing delinquency rate, and a 0.68% nonperforming loan rate, providing investors with a snapshot of late-cycle consumer credit stress and portfolio risk levels as of year-end 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One to Present at Goldman Sachs Conference

Capital One Financial Corporation announced its participation in the Goldman Sachs 2025 U.S. Financial Services Conference, scheduled for December 9, 2025, in New York. The event will feature a live audio webcast accessible through the company’s website, with the presentation replay available until December 22, 2025, indicating the company’s ongoing engagement with investors and stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Buy with a $270.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.

Capital One Approves Special Cash Award for Executive

On November 3, 2025, Capital One Financial‘s Board of Directors approved a $2,000,000 special cash award for Matthew Cooper, the company’s President, Discover Integration, General Counsel, and Secretary. This award recognizes his expanded role and exceptional performance throughout the year, highlighting his significant contributions to the company’s operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (COF) stock is a Hold with a $242.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capital One Financial stock, see the COF Stock Forecast page.