Capital One Financial (COF)
NYSE:COF
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Capital One Financial
(NYSE:COF)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$210.00
▲(1.71% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/24/26
The score is driven primarily by decent financial performance (steady revenue growth and solid cash generation) but meaningfully constrained by sharp recent profitability deterioration and a balance-sheet comparability anomaly. The earnings call was constructive on integration execution, liquidity, and long-term synergy targets, helping offset near-term margin and expense pressures. Technicals are mixed with weaker longer-term trend, while valuation is a notable headwind due to the high P/E and modest yield.
Positive Factors
Strong Liquidity & Capital
Extensive liquidity and a healthy CET1 ratio provide durable capacity to absorb credit stress, fund loan growth and acquisitions, and support deposit inflows. This large reserve buffer reduces funding risk, underpins regulatory resilience, and gives management optionality for strategic investments.
Negative Factors
Profitability Compression
Sharp margin and ROE deterioration erodes the bank's long‑run return on capital and weakens earnings power versus historical levels. Lower profitability reduces retained earnings growth, limits capacity to absorb credit shocks, and raises the bar for achieving management's normalized ROTCE targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Liquidity & Capital
Extensive liquidity and a healthy CET1 ratio provide durable capacity to absorb credit stress, fund loan growth and acquisitions, and support deposit inflows. This large reserve buffer reduces funding risk, underpins regulatory resilience, and gives management optionality for strategic investments.
Read all positive factors
Capital One Financial (COF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$118.42B
Dividend Yield1.05%
Average Volume (3M)4.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.1
Beta (1Y)1.42
Revenue Growth39.30%
EPS Growth-76.14%
CountryUS
Employees76,300
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.42
Shares Outstanding619,050,960
10 Day Avg. Volume4,195,235
30 Day Avg. Volume4,712,990
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.82
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio5.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$252.03Price Target Upside22.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)19.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)$63.63B
Capital One Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One Bank (USA), National Association; and Capital One, National Association, which provides various financial products and services in the United ...
How the Company Makes Money
Capital One makes money primarily by earning interest income and collecting fees from its lending and banking activities, and secondarily through other financial-service revenues.
1) Net interest income (core earnings driver)
- Credit card lendin...
Capital One Financial Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and profitability, and highlighting strategic focus areas for the company.
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and profitability, and highlighting strategic focus areas for the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCapital One Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a generally positive performance and strategic progress: solid earnings (adjusted EPS), sequential improvement in pre-provision earnings, strong liquidity and capital, good credit trends in card and auto, and successful execution on strategic integration steps (debit conversion, Brex close, travel insourcing). Offsetting items include a QoQ NIM decline driven by elevated cash and seasonality, short-term Discover-related growth headwinds, near-term elevated marketing and integration-related expenses, allowance builds in select portfolios, and a modest CET1 hit from the Brex deal. Management communicated confidence in delivering expected synergies and long-term earnings power despite near-term noise and investment-driven pressure on efficiency.Positive Updates
Strong Reported and Adjusted EPS
GAAP Q1 EPS $3.34; adjusted EPS (net of Discover integration and purchase accounting adjustments) $4.42.
Negative Updates
Net Interest Margin Decline
NIM 7.87%, down 39 basis points QoQ; drivers include 2 fewer days in the quarter (~18 bps), seasonal lower card balances and elevated cash levels (from deposit growth, seasonal paydowns, and Discover Home Loans sale impact).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Reported and Adjusted EPS
GAAP Q1 EPS $3.34; adjusted EPS (net of Discover integration and purchase accounting adjustments) $4.42.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management provided detailed near‑term and integration guidance: Q1 reported $2.2B net income ($3.34 GAAP EPS, $4.42 adj.), revenue -2% QoQ, noninterest expense -9% QoQ, pre‑provision earnings +$530M (8%; +$430M adj., 6%), provision ~ $4.1B (net charge‑offs ~$3.8B, allowance build $230M) and an allowance balance of $23.6B (total coverage 5.28%, +12bps). Key business metrics: Domestic Card purchase volume +40% YoY (ex‑Discover +8%), ending card loans +69% YoY (ex‑Discover +3.9%), revenue margin 16.9%, charge‑offs 5.1% (↑17bps QoQ, ↓109bps YoY), delinquency 3.7% (↓29bps QoQ); Consumer Banking: txn volume ~$174B, auto originations +21% YoY, ending loans +10% YoY, deposits +35% YoY, revenue +37% YoY, auto charge‑offs 1.64% (delinq 4.21%); Commercial: loans +1% QoQ, annualized NCO 0.29%, criticized performing 4.99%. Liquidity and capital: liquidity reserves ~$165B, cash ~$76B (+$19B QoQ), preliminary LCR 166%, NIM 7.87% (↓39bps QoQ—2 fewer days ≈‑18bps; one extra day in Q2 ≈+9bps), CET1 14.4% (+10bps QoQ) after $2.5B of buybacks; Brex consideration ~$4.5B expected to reduce CET1 by ~40bps in Q2. Integration and outlook: debit conversion to Discover complete with revenue synergies flowing (Q2), Discover originations to be on Capital One tech by end‑Q3 and back‑book conversion by Q1’27, expense synergies more back‑loaded with total synergies target $2.5B by mid‑2027, and management reaffirmed earnings‑power (ROTCE) normalized to a 12.5% capital base remains consistent with the original deal assumptions.Capital One Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 69.25B | 53.94B | 49.48B | 38.37B | 32.03B |
| Gross Profit | 32.78B | 27.40B | 26.36B | 28.40B | 32.38B |
| EBITDA | 7.54B | 9.15B | 9.27B | 12.45B | 19.29B |
| Net Income | 2.45B | 4.75B | 4.89B | 7.36B | 12.39B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 669.01B | 490.14B | 478.46B | 455.25B | 432.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 61.71B | 47.08B | 122.41B | 107.78B | 117.01B |
| Total Debt | 51.00B | 45.55B | 49.86B | 48.75B | 43.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 555.39B | 429.36B | 420.38B | 402.67B | 371.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 113.62B | 60.78B | 58.09B | 52.58B | 61.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 26.14B | 16.95B | 19.61B | 12.88B | 11.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 27.72B | 18.16B | 20.57B | 13.81B | 12.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -444.00M | -26.41B | -21.92B | -29.74B | -31.50B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -8.85B | 8.17B | 13.84B | 25.13B | 474.00M |
Capital One Financial Technical Analysis
Positive
206.47
Price Trends
194.22
Positive
213.87
Negative
215.52
Negative
Market Momentum
2.95
Negative
65.49
Neutral
87.56
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 206.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.68, above the 50-day MA of 194.22, and below the 200-day MA of 215.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COF.
Capital One Financial Risk Analysis
Capital One Financial disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Capital One Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Capital One Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $220.43B | 17.46 | 33.95% | 0.84% | 9.41% | 12.00% | |
77 Outperform | $25.68B | 7.23 | 21.41% | 1.34% | -3.18% | 32.55% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $20.53B | 30.39 | 6.25% | ― | 32.00% | 10.31% | |
64 Neutral | $6.89B | 6.91 | 23.40% | 6.07% | 7.80% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $118.42B | 13.06 | 2.86% | 1.05% | 39.30% | -76.14% | |
56 Neutral | $13.67B | 9.56 | 9.19% | 2.58% | -0.99% | 198.95% |
* Financial Sector Average
COF
Capital One Financial
191.91
5.19
2.78%
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OMF
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29.37%
Capital One Financial Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capital One Finalizes Brex Acquisition and Share Resale
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
Capital One Financial Corporation, a major player in consumer and commercial banking, provides credit cards, loans and deposit services to retail and business clients across the U.S. financial sector. The company competes in a crowded marketplace,...
Financial Disclosures
Capital One Releases March 2026 Credit Quality Metrics
Neutral
Apr 21, 2026
Capital One Financial reported its monthly charge-off and delinquency metrics for loans held for investment as of and for the month ended March 31, 2026, highlighting credit performance across its key lending portfolios. The disclosure offers inve...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Capital One Completes Brex Acquisition, Highlights Leadership Incentives
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Capital One Financial completed its previously announced acquisition of corporate spend management platform Brex Inc., paying approximately $2.56 billion in cash plus 10,646,306 shares of its common stock, with the cash component...
Business Operations and Strategy
Capital One to Present at UBS Financial Services Conference
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
Capital One Financial Corporation, a major U.S. provider of credit cards, consumer banking, and commercial financial services, continues to emphasize its position in the financial services sector with a focus on technology-enabled banking solution...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capital One updates executive pay and severance programs
Positive
Feb 6, 2026
On February 3, 2026, Capital One Financial’s board and compensation committee approved 2026 compensation plans and 2025 incentive awards for Chief Executive Officer Richard Fairbank and other named executive officers, continuing the company&...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Capital One Completes $3 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Capital One Financial Corporation completed a $3 billion public debt offering, issuing $1.5 billion of 4.722% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2032 and $1.5 billion of 5.399% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2037...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.