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Capital One Financial
(NYSE:COF)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$208.00
▲(0.74% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/09/26
COF scores highest on underlying financial footing (strong cash flow and moderate leverage) and a constructive earnings-call outlook with solid capital/liquidity and integration progress. The overall score is held back by depressed profitability (low margins and ROE versus prior years) and weak technical momentum (negative MACD and trading below longer-term moving averages), while valuation remains supportive with a reasonable P/E and modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Very strong operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for lending, tech investment, acquisitions and buybacks. High cash conversion (FCF ≈ net income) improves resilience to credit cycles and funds integration costs without immediately relying on external capital.
Negative Factors
Compressed profitability
Material margin and return on equity compression versus prior years signals lower earnings power on the existing capital base. Persistently low ROE limits internal capital returns and makes the bank more dependent on margin recovery or sizable synergies to justify reinvestment and buybacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Very strong operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for lending, tech investment, acquisitions and buybacks. High cash conversion (FCF ≈ net income) improves resilience to credit cycles and funds integration costs without immediately relying on external capital.
Read all positive factors
Capital One Financial Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and profitability, and highlighting strategic focus areas for the company.
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, revealing which areas are driving growth and profitability, and highlighting strategic focus areas for the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCapital One Financial (COF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$126.36B
Dividend Yield1.05%
Average Volume (3M)5.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)72.0
Beta (1Y)1.42
Revenue Growth39.21%
EPS Growth-76.14%
CountryUS
Employees76,300
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.85
Shares Outstanding616,019,500
10 Day Avg. Volume5,890,111
30 Day Avg. Volume5,145,177
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.92
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.89
P/FCF Ratio5.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.78
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$255.08Price Target Upside23.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)19.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)$63.67B
Capital One Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Capital One Financial Corporation, identified by its ticker COF, operates as a prominent financial services holding company. It oversees essential subsidiaries such as Capital One Bank (USA), National Association, and Capital One, National Associa...
How the Company Makes Money
Capital One makes money primarily by earning interest income and collecting fees from its lending and banking activities, and secondarily through other financial-service revenues.
1) Net interest income (core earnings driver)
- Credit card lendin...
Capital One Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a generally positive performance and strategic progress: solid earnings (adjusted EPS), sequential improvement in pre-provision earnings, strong liquidity and capital, good credit trends in card and auto, and successful execution on strategic integration steps (debit conversion, Brex close, travel insourcing). Offsetting items include a QoQ NIM decline driven by elevated cash and seasonality, short-term Discover-related growth headwinds, near-term elevated marketing and integration-related expenses, allowance builds in select portfolios, and a modest CET1 hit from the Brex deal. Management communicated confidence in delivering expected synergies and long-term earnings power despite near-term noise and investment-driven pressure on efficiency.Positive Updates
Strong Reported and Adjusted EPS
GAAP Q1 EPS $3.34; adjusted EPS (net of Discover integration and purchase accounting adjustments) $4.42.
Negative Updates
Net Interest Margin Decline
NIM 7.87%, down 39 basis points QoQ; drivers include 2 fewer days in the quarter (~18 bps), seasonal lower card balances and elevated cash levels (from deposit growth, seasonal paydowns, and Discover Home Loans sale impact).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Reported and Adjusted EPS
GAAP Q1 EPS $3.34; adjusted EPS (net of Discover integration and purchase accounting adjustments) $4.42.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management provided detailed near‑term and integration guidance: Q1 reported $2.2B net income ($3.34 GAAP EPS, $4.42 adj.), revenue -2% QoQ, noninterest expense -9% QoQ, pre‑provision earnings +$530M (8%; +$430M adj., 6%), provision ~ $4.1B (net charge‑offs ~$3.8B, allowance build $230M) and an allowance balance of $23.6B (total coverage 5.28%, +12bps). Key business metrics: Domestic Card purchase volume +40% YoY (ex‑Discover +8%), ending card loans +69% YoY (ex‑Discover +3.9%), revenue margin 16.9%, charge‑offs 5.1% (↑17bps QoQ, ↓109bps YoY), delinquency 3.7% (↓29bps QoQ); Consumer Banking: txn volume ~$174B, auto originations +21% YoY, ending loans +10% YoY, deposits +35% YoY, revenue +37% YoY, auto charge‑offs 1.64% (delinq 4.21%); Commercial: loans +1% QoQ, annualized NCO 0.29%, criticized performing 4.99%. Liquidity and capital: liquidity reserves ~$165B, cash ~$76B (+$19B QoQ), preliminary LCR 166%, NIM 7.87% (↓39bps QoQ—2 fewer days ≈‑18bps; one extra day in Q2 ≈+9bps), CET1 14.4% (+10bps QoQ) after $2.5B of buybacks; Brex consideration ~$4.5B expected to reduce CET1 by ~40bps in Q2. Integration and outlook: debit conversion to Discover complete with revenue synergies flowing (Q2), Discover originations to be on Capital One tech by end‑Q3 and back‑book conversion by Q1’27, expense synergies more back‑loaded with total synergies target $2.5B by mid‑2027, and management reaffirmed earnings‑power (ROTCE) normalized to a 12.5% capital base remains consistent with the original deal assumptions.Capital One Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 75.16B | 69.25B | 53.94B | 49.48B | 38.37B | 32.03B |
| Gross Profit | 36.31B | 32.78B | 27.40B | 26.36B | 28.40B | 32.38B |
| EBITDA | 9.21B | 7.54B | 9.15B | 9.27B | 12.45B | 19.29B |
| Net Income | 3.22B | 2.45B | 4.75B | 4.89B | 7.36B | 12.39B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 682.72B | 669.01B | 490.14B | 478.46B | 455.25B | 432.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 168.81B | 61.71B | 47.08B | 122.41B | 107.78B | 117.01B |
| Total Debt | 50.54B | 51.00B | 45.55B | 49.86B | 48.75B | 43.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 570.64B | 555.39B | 429.36B | 420.38B | 402.67B | 371.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 112.26B | 113.62B | 60.78B | 58.09B | 52.58B | 61.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 28.87B | 26.14B | 16.95B | 19.61B | 12.88B | 11.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 29.07B | 27.72B | 18.16B | 20.57B | 13.81B | 12.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.26B | -444.00M | -26.41B | -21.92B | -29.74B | -31.50B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.48B | -8.85B | 8.17B | 13.84B | 25.13B | 474.00M |
Capital One Financial Technical Analysis
Positive
206.47
Price Trends
190.85
Positive
192.22
Positive
208.70
Negative
Market Momentum
4.61
Negative
63.88
Neutral
51.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 206.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 194.52, above the 50-day MA of 190.85, and below the 200-day MA of 208.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COF.
Capital One Financial Risk Analysis
Capital One Financial disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Capital One Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Capital One Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $25.68B | 7.82 | 21.41% | 1.34% | -3.18% | 32.55% | |
75 Outperform | $240.15B | 21.96 | 33.95% | 0.84% | 9.41% | 12.00% | |
70 Outperform | $126.36B | 71.97 | 2.86% | 1.05% | 39.21% | -76.14% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $6.87B | 8.81 | 23.62% | 6.07% | 7.80% | 42.28% | |
65 Neutral | $23.40B | 38.17 | 6.25% | ― | 32.00% | 10.31% | |
61 Neutral | $13.89B | 10.92 | 9.19% | 2.58% | -0.72% | 198.95% |
* Financial Sector Average
COF
Capital One Financial
205.12
-15.19
-6.89%
AXP
American Express
351.96
27.30
8.41%
ALLY
Ally Financial
45.32
5.31
13.27%
SYF
Synchrony Financial
76.33
7.32
10.61%
OMF
OneMain Holdings
59.50
3.99
7.18%
SOFI
SoFi
18.24
-0.33
-1.78%
Capital One Financial Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Capital One Stockholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 8, 2026
Capital One Financial held its 2026 Annual Stockholder Meeting on May 8, 2026, with 556,421,571 of 619,050,950 eligible shares represented, and stockholders elected 13 directors, including CEO Richard D. Fairbank, to serve terms expiring at the 20...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Capital One Finalizes Brex Acquisition and Share Resale
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
Capital One Financial Corporation, a major player in consumer and commercial banking, provides credit cards, loans and deposit services to retail and business clients across the U.S. financial sector. The company competes in a crowded marketplace,...
Financial Disclosures
Capital One Releases March 2026 Credit Quality Metrics
Neutral
Apr 21, 2026
Capital One Financial reported its monthly charge-off and delinquency metrics for loans held for investment as of and for the month ended March 31, 2026, highlighting credit performance across its key lending portfolios. The disclosure offers inve...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Capital One Completes Brex Acquisition, Highlights Leadership Incentives
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Capital One Financial completed its previously announced acquisition of corporate spend management platform Brex Inc., paying approximately $2.56 billion in cash plus 10,646,306 shares of its common stock, with the cash component...
Business Operations and Strategy
Capital One to Present at UBS Financial Services Conference
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
Capital One Financial Corporation, a major U.S. provider of credit cards, consumer banking, and commercial financial services, continues to emphasize its position in the financial services sector with a focus on technology-enabled banking solution...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.