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PayPal Holdings
(NASDAQ:PYPL)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$63.00
▲(12.20% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/28/26
PYPL scores well overall due to strong technical trend strength (price above all major moving averages) and an attractive earnings multiple (low P/E). The score is tempered by softer recent financial momentum—especially the step-down in TTM net income and materially lower free cash flow—and by earnings-call risks tied to elevated near-term operating expenses and timing of cost-savings benefits.
Positive Factors
Scale & TPV Growth
Large, accelerating TPV underpins durable network effects and entrenched distribution across merchants and consumers. Sustained volume growth supports stable transaction revenue, resilience in take-rates over time, and a broad base to fund product investment and margin recovery across cycles.
Negative Factors
Earnings & FCF Deterioration
A material step-down in net income and sharply weaker trailing free cash flow reduce financial cushion and constrain reinvestment or debt repayment. If sustained, lower profitability and FCF pressure ROIC and could limit the company’s ability to execute transformation without additional financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & TPV Growth
Large, accelerating TPV underpins durable network effects and entrenched distribution across merchants and consumers. Sustained volume growth supports stable transaction revenue, resilience in take-rates over time, and a broad base to fund product investment and margin recovery across cycles.
Read all positive factors
PayPal Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down where PayPal earns sales across regions, revealing dependence on the U.S. versus growth opportunities or risks in international markets and currency exposure.
Breaks down where PayPal earns sales across regions, revealing dependence on the U.S. versus growth opportunities or risks in international markets and currency exposure.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPayPal Holdings (PYPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$50.47B
Dividend Yield0.71%
Average Volume (3M)18.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1
Beta (1Y)1.14
Revenue Growth6.32%
EPS Growth12.89%
CountryUS
Employees23,800
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.33
Shares Outstanding855,460,900
10 Day Avg. Volume25,030,855
30 Day Avg. Volume18,551,618
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.30
Price to Book (P/B)2.76
Price to Sales (P/S)1.69
P/FCF Ratio10.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$58.36Price Target Upside3.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering27
EPS Forecast (FY)5.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$34.71B
PayPal Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is a financial technology company in the digital payments sector that provides a two-sided payments platform connecting consumers and merchants. Its core offerings enable online and in-app checkout, person-to-person pa...
How the Company Makes Money
PayPal primarily makes money by charging fees for processing payment transactions on its platform. The largest revenue stream is transaction revenue earned when customers (consumers or merchants) use PayPal-branded checkout, merchant acceptance to...
PayPal Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a largely constructive tone: underlying volume and revenue growth (notably Venmo, Braintree and TPV) exceeded expectations, management raised full-year guidance and outlined tangible cost-savings and modernization plans that should self-fund prioritized investments. However, the company is absorbing elevated near-term operating expense to fund transformation, causing a small EPS dip and an operating income decline in the quarter, with some modest and uneven branded checkout growth and timing risk as savings ramp. Overall the positives around growth momentum, raised guidance, strong cash generation and a clear multi-year plan outweigh the near-term execution and investment-related headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue and TPV Growth
Revenue increased 5% year-over-year (spot) and 3% on a currency-neutral basis. Total payment volume (TPV) was $486 billion, accelerating to 9% currency-neutral growth.
Negative Updates
Non-GAAP EPS and Operating Income Pressure
Non-GAAP earnings per share declined 1% year-over-year to $1.38 in Q2. Non-GAAP operating income declined 8% to $1.5 billion due to higher nontransaction operating expenses.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and TPV Growth
Revenue increased 5% year-over-year (spot) and 3% on a currency-neutral basis. Total payment volume (TPV) was $486 billion, accelerating to 9% currency-neutral growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
PayPal raised its full‑year guidance, now expecting transaction margin dollars of roughly $15.6 billion (about $14.5 billion excluding interest on customer balances) and non‑GAAP EPS of $5.38, with online branded checkout TPV now seen growing in the low single‑digit range (currency‑neutral) for 2026; the company still targets at least $6.0 billion of adjusted free cash flow and roughly $6.0 billion of share repurchases, anticipates approximately 7–8% growth in non‑transaction operating expenses for the year, and expects its cost‑savings program to deliver at least $1.5 billion of gross run‑rate savings over 2–3 years (including roughly $400 million of new run‑rate savings by year‑end and a potential transformation charge of ~$120–$140 million in H2). For Q3 PayPal guided to low‑single‑digit currency‑neutral revenue growth, transaction margin dollars slightly positive (TM ex‑interest slightly positive to low‑single‑digit growth), high‑single‑digit growth in non‑transaction OpEx, and non‑GAAP EPS down in the low single‑digit range, with Q4 TM growth also expected to be slightly positive and cost‑savings benefits becoming more meaningful in the fourth quarter.PayPal Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 34.13B | 33.17B | 31.80B | 29.77B | 27.52B | 25.37B |
| Gross Profit | 15.62B | 15.46B | 14.66B | 13.70B | 13.77B | 14.00B |
| EBITDA | 7.49B | 7.70B | 6.74B | 6.83B | 4.99B | 5.60B |
| Net Income | 4.90B | 5.23B | 4.15B | 4.25B | 2.42B | 4.17B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 82.74B | 80.17B | 81.61B | 82.17B | 78.62B | 75.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.26B | 10.42B | 10.82B | 14.06B | 10.85B | 9.39B |
| Total Debt | 14.22B | 9.99B | 9.88B | 9.68B | 10.42B | 9.05B |
| Total Liabilities | 62.92B | 59.92B | 61.19B | 61.12B | 58.35B | 54.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.82B | 20.26B | 20.42B | 21.05B | 20.27B | 21.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.59B | 5.56B | 6.77B | 4.22B | 5.11B | 4.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.47B | 6.42B | 7.45B | 4.84B | 5.81B | 5.80B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -511.00M | 797.00M | 1.69B | 752.00M | -3.33B | -5.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.93B | -5.96B | -8.28B | -2.99B | -1.20B | -557.00M |
PayPal Holdings Risk Analysis
PayPal Holdings disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. PayPal Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
PayPal Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $491.83B | 30.74 | 232.46% | 0.62% | 16.15% | 22.59% | |
82 Outperform | $677.40B | 30.54 | 61.26% | 0.73% | 14.39% | 14.71% | |
74 Outperform | $50.47B | 11.11 | 24.42% | 0.75% | 6.32% | 12.89% | |
74 Outperform | $47.51B | 137.33 | 1.62% | ― | 5.07% | -87.94% | |
68 Neutral | $230.15B | 20.87 | 34.12% | 1.09% | 9.41% | 15.72% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
57 Neutral | $2.20B | 5.72 | 42.65% | 11.44% | -1.65% | -53.21% |
* Financial Sector Average
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
59.20
-9.58
-13.93%
AXP
American Express
344.08
39.61
13.01%
MA
Mastercard
559.73
-20.41
-3.52%
V
Visa
359.42
16.67
4.86%
WU
Western Union
7.14
-0.28
-3.71%
XYZ
Block
78.28
2.24
2.95%
PayPal Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
PayPal Shareholders Approve 2026 Equity Incentive Plan
Positive
May 21, 2026
At its 2026 annual meeting on May 19, PayPal shareholders approved a new 2026 Equity Incentive Award Plan, authorizing tens of millions of additional shares for stock-based compensation and replacing the 2015 plan, while also backing executive pay...
Private Placements and Financing
PayPal Issues $2 Billion in New Senior Notes
Neutral
May 15, 2026
On May 15, 2026, PayPal Holdings, Inc. issued $2.0 billion of unsecured senior notes across three tranches, comprising $650 million of 4.550% notes due 2028, $850 million of 4.950% notes due 2031, and $500 million of 5.550% notes due 2036, with in...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
PayPal announces major reorganization and leadership changes
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 29, 2026, PayPal announced a strategic reorganization, effective June 2, 2026, to accelerate long-term growth by shifting to three core business units: Checkout Solutions PayPal, Consumer Financial Services Venmo, and Payment Services ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.