PayPal Holdings (PYPL)
NASDAQ:PYPL
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PayPal Holdings
(NASDAQ:PYPL)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$48.00
▲(6.98% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven by solid fundamentals (profitability, ROE, and free cash flow) and supportive valuation (low P/E), partially offset by weak technical trend signals and a mixed 2026 outlook where branded checkout underperformance and investment-driven headwinds create near-term earnings uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Consistent multi-billion dollar free cash flow provides durable internal funding for strategic investments, share repurchases and a new dividend. This cash generation supports execution through cyclical branded checkout weakness and preserves financial optionality for multi-year initiatives.
Negative Factors
Branded Checkout Concentration
A sustained underperformance in branded checkout threatens profitability because it represents a majority of profit dollars. If merchant adoption and TA/coverage issues persist, top-line and margin recovery will depend on a multi-quarter rebuild of merchant presentment and conversion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Consistent multi-billion dollar free cash flow provides durable internal funding for strategic investments, share repurchases and a new dividend. This cash generation supports execution through cyclical branded checkout weakness and preserves financial optionality for multi-year initiatives.
Read all positive factors
PayPal Holdings (PYPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$41.31B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)23.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.7
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth4.50%
EPS Growth19.71%
CountryUS
Employees24,400
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.23
Shares Outstanding920,664,550
10 Day Avg. Volume17,790,705
30 Day Avg. Volume23,214,357
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.30
Price to Book (P/B)2.76
Price to Sales (P/S)1.69
P/FCF Ratio10.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$50.75Price Target Upside13.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering33
EPS Forecast (FY)5.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$34.11B
PayPal Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments on behalf of merchants and consumers worldwide. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Zettle, Hyperwallet, Honey, a...
How the Company Makes Money
PayPal primarily makes money by charging fees for processing payment transactions and providing payment-related services to merchants and consumers. Its core revenue is transaction-based: when a customer pays a merchant using PayPal-branded checko...
PayPal Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPayPal Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but stabilized picture: PayPal reported solid full-year financials, strong progress in Venmo, PSP/Enterprise Payments, BNPL and omnichannel initiatives, and meaningful product-led conversion gains. However, a significant underperformance in online branded checkout—driven by macro pressures in key markets, slower merchant adoption, and execution/deployment issues—represents a material near-term risk (branded checkout contributes over half of profit dollars). Management outlined targeted investments (expected to weigh on 2026 results) and organizational changes to accelerate execution, while withdrawing multi-year guidance and focusing on annual guidance instead. Overall the company has multiple growth levers and a healthy balance sheet, but the timing of a branded checkout recovery is uncertain and will determine near-term earnings trajectory.Positive Updates
Solid Full-Year Financial Performance
Full-year revenue of $33.2B, up ~4% year-over-year; total payment volume (TPV) $1.8T for the year, up 7% spot and 6% currency-neutral; transaction margin (TM) dollar growth ~6% for the year; non-GAAP EPS up 14% for the full year to $5.31; adjusted free cash flow $6.4B for 2025.
Negative Updates
Online Branded Checkout Underperformance
Online branded checkout TPV grew only 1% in Q4 on a currency-neutral basis (down from 5% in Q3); management noted branded checkout is over half of profit dollars and performance is below expectations due to adoption and deployment challenges.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Full-Year Financial Performance
Full-year revenue of $33.2B, up ~4% year-over-year; total payment volume (TPV) $1.8T for the year, up 7% spot and 6% currency-neutral; transaction margin (TM) dollar growth ~6% for the year; non-GAAP EPS up 14% for the full year to $5.31; adjusted free cash flow $6.4B for 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
PayPal guided to a one‑year 2026 plan with modest near‑term headwinds as it makes targeted growth investments: management expects TM dollars (excluding interest on customer balances) to be roughly flat to slightly down for the full year (Q1 TM roughly flat to slightly down), branded checkout to be slightly positive to low‑single‑digit for the year, and Q1 revenue to grow low‑single‑digits on a currency‑neutral basis; the company said new investments will create ~3 percentage points of headwind to TM dollar growth (about two‑thirds into branded checkout and BNPL, remainder to Venmo loyalty and agentic), plus ~1–1.5 points of lower interest contribution, non‑transaction OpEx to grow mid‑single‑digits in Q1 and ~3% for the full year, non‑GAAP EPS to be down mid‑single‑digits in Q1 and down low‑single‑digits to slightly positive for the year, adjusted free cash flow of at least $6.0 billion, approximately $6.0 billion of share repurchases, capex around $1.0 billion, and a tax‑rate assumption near 19–21%.PayPal Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 33.17B | 31.80B | 29.77B | 27.52B | 25.37B |
| Gross Profit | 15.46B | 14.66B | 13.70B | 13.77B | 14.00B |
| EBITDA | 7.70B | 6.74B | 6.83B | 4.99B | 5.60B |
| Net Income | 5.23B | 4.15B | 4.25B | 2.42B | 4.17B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 80.17B | 81.61B | 82.17B | 78.62B | 75.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.42B | 10.82B | 14.06B | 10.85B | 9.39B |
| Total Debt | 9.99B | 9.88B | 9.68B | 10.42B | 9.05B |
| Total Liabilities | 59.92B | 61.19B | 61.12B | 58.35B | 54.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.26B | 20.42B | 21.05B | 20.27B | 21.73B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.56B | 6.77B | 4.22B | 5.11B | 4.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.42B | 7.45B | 4.84B | 5.81B | 5.80B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 797.00M | 1.69B | 752.00M | -3.33B | -5.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.96B | -8.28B | -2.99B | -1.20B | -557.00M |
PayPal Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
44.87
Price Trends
45.42
Positive
52.77
Negative
61.37
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.28
Negative
50.86
Neutral
63.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PYPL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.95, below the 50-day MA of 45.42, and below the 200-day MA of 61.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PYPL.
PayPal Holdings Risk Analysis
PayPal Holdings disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. PayPal Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
PayPal Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $576.66B | 28.66 | 54.22% | 0.69% | 11.34% | 2.76% | |
74 Outperform | $444.37B | 31.53 | 198.42% | 0.54% | 15.67% | 18.22% | |
68 Neutral | $209.92B | 23.73 | 33.49% | 0.84% | 8.14% | 9.55% | |
68 Neutral | $2.76B | 6.46 | 53.92% | 10.18% | -2.51% | 17.47% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $41.31B | 10.70 | 25.87% | ― | 4.50% | 19.71% | |
62 Neutral | $35.93B | 30.56 | 5.91% | ― | 0.47% | 178.05% |
* Financial Sector Average
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
44.87
-12.23
-21.42%
AXP
American Express
307.03
78.04
34.08%
MA
Mastercard
498.28
21.12
4.43%
V
Visa
302.55
-3.43
-1.12%
WU
Western Union
8.81
0.63
7.77%
XYZ
Block
59.97
10.89
22.19%
PayPal Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
PayPal Adds Alyssa Henry to Board of Directors
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
On March 25, 2025, PayPal appointed Alyssa Henry, former CEO of Block’s Square business and a veteran of Amazon Web Services, to its Board of Directors, expanding the Board to 12 members, 11 of whom are independent. Her extensive background ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
PayPal appoints Enrique Lores as new CEO
Neutral
Feb 3, 2026
On February 3, 2026, PayPal announced that its board has appointed longtime director and current board chair Enrique Lores as President and CEO, effective March 1, 2026, replacing Alex Chriss, with Chief Financial and Operating Officer Jamie Mille...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.