PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)
NASDAQ:PYPL
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PayPal Holdings
(NASDAQ:PYPL)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$49.00
▼(-3.56% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial stability and profitability (manageable leverage, strong ROE, and healthy cash generation) and supportive valuation (low P/E). These positives are tempered by bearish technicals and a near-term earnings outlook that includes margin/take-rate pressure and expected EPS declines as the company funds growth and modernization.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow
Sustained, multi‑billion free cash flow provides durable funding for modernization, share repurchases, and targeted growth investments without heavy new financing. Over 2–6 months this underpins flexibility to execute strategy while absorbing near‑term margin headwinds.
Negative Factors
Take‑rate and margin compression
A secular decline in take rates and material margin compression versus 2021 reduce long‑term earnings power per dollar of volume. If mix shifts to lower‑yield products or investments persist, sustained margin pressure could limit incremental profit from future TPV growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow
Sustained, multi‑billion free cash flow provides durable funding for modernization, share repurchases, and targeted growth investments without heavy new financing. Over 2–6 months this underpins flexibility to execute strategy while absorbing near‑term margin headwinds.
Read all positive factors
PayPal Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down where PayPal earns sales across regions, revealing dependence on the U.S. versus growth opportunities or risks in international markets and currency exposure.
Breaks down where PayPal earns sales across regions, revealing dependence on the U.S. versus growth opportunities or risks in international markets and currency exposure.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPayPal Holdings (PYPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$39.17B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)14.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.3
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth6.97%
EPS Growth19.31%
CountryUS
Employees24,400
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.37
Shares Outstanding882,105,470
10 Day Avg. Volume18,666,809
30 Day Avg. Volume14,453,542
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.30
Price to Book (P/B)2.76
Price to Sales (P/S)1.69
P/FCF Ratio10.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$49.05Price Target Upside-3.46% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering27
EPS Forecast (FY)5.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)$34.34B
PayPal Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments on behalf of merchants and consumers worldwide. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Zettle, Hyperwallet, Honey, a...
How the Company Makes Money
PayPal primarily makes money by charging fees for processing payment transactions and providing payment-related services to merchants and consumers. Its core revenue is transaction-based: when a customer pays a merchant using PayPal-branded checko...
PayPal Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but constructive picture: PayPal delivered solid top-line volume growth, Venmo and PSP momentum, healthy cash generation and announced a clear strategic refocus and a material $1.5B cost-savings ambition. However, near-term execution risks remain — branded checkout growth is modest, Europe and travel verticals showed softness, take rates and operating income faced pressure due to investments, and meaningful modernization efforts are required. Management reiterated full-year guidance but warned of a tougher Q2 comp and a near-term EPS decline. Overall, the transcript signals confidence in the medium-term strategy and financial flexibility but balanced by tangible short-term headwinds and execution risk.Positive Updates
Total Payment Volume (TPV) Acceleration
TPV grew 11% at spot and 8% on a currency-neutral basis in Q1 to roughly $464 billion (over $460B reported), reflecting broad-based volume strength across consumer and merchant channels.
Negative Updates
Branded Checkout Weakness and Geographic Pressure
Online branded checkout TPV growth was modest: up 2% on a currency-neutral basis (improved from 1% last quarter). Europe showed softer performance (notably the U.K. and moderation in Germany) and travel verticals decelerated into Q2, contributing to branded checkout trends at the low end of guidance.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Total Payment Volume (TPV) Acceleration
TPV grew 11% at spot and 8% on a currency-neutral basis in Q1 to roughly $464 billion (over $460B reported), reflecting broad-based volume strength across consumer and merchant channels.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
PayPal reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance and gave Q2 specifics: for the year it expects transaction margin dollars to be roughly flat or decline slightly (with targeted growth investments representing ~3 percentage points of headwind), non‑transaction OpEx to grow ≈3%, and non‑GAAP EPS to be down low single digits to slightly positive, while assuming ≈$6B of share repurchases and at least $6B of adjusted free cash flow; for Q2 management expects low‑single‑digit revenue growth (currency‑neutral), transaction margin dollars to decline low single digits (~3%) (excluding interest ≈2%), mid‑single‑digit growth in non‑transaction OpEx, and non‑GAAP EPS to decline high single digits (~9%). They also reiterated a gross cost‑savings target of at least $1.5B over 2–3 years to be redeployed into growth. Management anchored the guidance to Q1 results: TPV $464B (up 11% spot, 8% FX‑neutral), branded checkout TPV +2% (FX‑neutral), Venmo TPV +14% and PSP TPV accelerating to mid‑teens (PSP overall +11%), transaction revenue $7.5B, other value‑added services $852M, transaction take rate 1.62% (down 6 bps), TM dollars ex interest +3%, Q1 non‑GAAP EPS $1.34 (+1%), adjusted FCF $1.7B (nearly $6.8B TTM), $13.5B cash and $11.6B debt.PayPal Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 33.73B | 33.17B | 31.80B | 29.77B | 27.52B | 25.37B |
| Gross Profit | 15.56B | 15.46B | 14.66B | 13.70B | 13.77B | 14.00B |
| EBITDA | 7.23B | 7.70B | 6.74B | 6.83B | 4.99B | 5.60B |
| Net Income | 5.06B | 5.23B | 4.15B | 4.25B | 2.42B | 4.17B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 80.55B | 80.17B | 81.61B | 82.17B | 78.62B | 75.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.34B | 10.42B | 10.82B | 14.06B | 10.85B | 9.39B |
| Total Debt | 9.41B | 9.99B | 9.88B | 9.68B | 10.42B | 9.05B |
| Total Liabilities | 60.52B | 59.92B | 61.19B | 61.12B | 58.35B | 54.08B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.02B | 20.26B | 20.42B | 21.05B | 20.27B | 21.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.51B | 5.56B | 6.77B | 4.22B | 5.11B | 4.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.39B | 6.42B | 7.45B | 4.84B | 5.81B | 5.80B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.35B | 797.00M | 1.69B | 752.00M | -3.33B | -5.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.51B | -5.96B | -8.28B | -2.99B | -1.20B | -557.00M |
PayPal Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
50.81
Price Trends
46.71
Negative
48.65
Negative
57.51
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.88
Positive
34.86
Neutral
5.72
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PYPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 50.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.88, above the 50-day MA of 46.71, and below the 200-day MA of 57.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.72 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PYPL.
PayPal Holdings Risk Analysis
PayPal Holdings disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. PayPal Holdings reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
PayPal Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $613.75B | 24.01 | 58.90% | 0.69% | 14.37% | 13.59% | |
76 Outperform | $41.91B | -29.13 | 3.64% | ― | 2.27% | -69.08% | |
75 Outperform | $213.90B | 17.46 | 33.95% | 0.84% | 9.41% | 12.00% | |
75 Outperform | $436.67B | 28.67 | 206.12% | 0.54% | 17.06% | 21.18% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $39.17B | 9.28 | 25.08% | ― | 6.97% | 19.31% | |
62 Neutral | $2.61B | 10.62 | 47.95% | 10.18% | -2.34% | -49.33% |
* Financial Sector Average
PYPL
PayPal Holdings
44.39
-27.55
-38.30%
AXP
American Express
312.24
16.05
5.42%
MA
Mastercard
505.79
-77.18
-13.24%
V
Visa
332.64
-32.38
-8.87%
WU
Western Union
8.46
-0.41
-4.60%
XYZ
Block
70.63
12.30
21.09%
PayPal Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
PayPal announces major reorganization and leadership changes
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 29, 2026, PayPal announced a strategic reorganization, effective June 2, 2026, to accelerate long-term growth by shifting to three core business units: Checkout Solutions PayPal, Consumer Financial Services Venmo, and Payment Services ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
PayPal Adds Alyssa Henry to Board of Directors
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
On March 25, 2025, PayPal appointed Alyssa Henry, former CEO of Block’s Square business and a veteran of Amazon Web Services, to its Board of Directors, expanding the Board to 12 members, 11 of whom are independent. Her extensive background ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.