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Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)
NYSE:WDS
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Woodside Energy Group
(NYSE:WDS)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$22.50
â–²(55.07% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but cooling financial performance (revenue/earnings step-down and negative 2025 free cash flow) alongside constructive technicals (trend strength but overbought signals). Valuation is supportive due to the moderate P/E and strong dividend yield, while the earnings call adds a modest positive tilt from execution and balance-sheet strength, tempered by 2026 transition-year and project/cost uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Record production & reliable assets
Sustained top-line production (198.8m boe) and high reliability at Sangomar underpin structural cash generation capacity. Consistently high uptime on core assets supports long-term EBITDA resilience, funding reinvestment, dividends and smoothing cyclicality across commodity cycles.
Project de‑risking via partner funding
Material partner sell‑downs and third‑party funding reduce Woodside’s capital exposure to large LNG projects. Lowered share of project capex and external carry materially reduces funding risk and execution burden, improving capital allocation optionality and protecting balance sheet through multi‑year buildouts.
Strong liquidity & disciplined gearing
Healthy liquidity and target-range gearing provide a durable financial buffer for cycles. Ample cash and moderate leverage support credit metrics, enable funding of near‑term capex and turnarounds, and sustain distributions without forcing distress asset sales under lower price scenarios.
Negative Factors
Multi‑year revenue and earnings decline
Declining revenues and easing earnings power versus the 2022 peak indicate structurally softer near‑term earnings potential absent a sustained commodity rebound. This narrows the margin for error on heavy project spend and reduces long‑run internal funding capacity for growth or higher payouts.
Volatile free cash flow generation
Intermittent swings to negative free cash flow despite strong operating cash flow point to capital intensity and timing mismatches. Persistent FCF volatility undermines the predictability of dividends and discretionary buybacks, and increases reliance on external financing during build phases.
Near‑term capital intensity & transition risks
A capital‑intensive transition year (turnarounds, tie‑ins, decommissioning and large project spend) concentrates execution and cash demands. This raises delivery, timing and cost risks, compresses near‑term free cash flow, and could delay returns from sanctioned projects if schedules or costs slip.
Woodside Energy Group (WDS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$38.20B
Dividend Yield6.85%
Average Volume (3M)823.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.3
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth15.31%
EPS Growth58.83%
CountryUS
Employees4,718
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.73
Shares Outstanding1,901,100,100
10 Day Avg. Volume839,765
30 Day Avg. Volume823,694
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.45
Price to Book (P/B)0.82
Price to Sales (P/S)2.28
P/FCF Ratio-37.79
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.52
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.10B
Woodside Energy Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionWoodside Energy Group Ltd engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, production, marketing, and sale of hydrocarbons in Oceania, Asia, Canada, Africa, and internationally. The company produces liquefied natural gas, pipeline natural gas, condensate, liquefied petroleum gas, and crude oil. It holds interests in the Greater Browse, Greater Sunrise, Greater Pluto, Greater Exmouth, North West Shelf, Wheatstone, Julimar-Brunello, Canada, Senegal, Greater Scarborough, and Myanmar projects. The company was formerly known as Woodside Petroleum Ltd and changed its name to Woodside Energy Group Ltd in May 2022. Woodside Energy Group Ltd was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyWoodside Energy Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural gas, LNG, and crude oil. The company earns income by extracting hydrocarbons from its various production sites, processing them, and selling them to both domestic and international customers. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts for LNG supply, spot market sales, and joint venture agreements with other energy companies. Additionally, Woodside benefits from partnerships with global energy firms, which enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. The fluctuating prices of oil and gas on global markets also significantly impact Woodside's earnings, making commodity price trends a critical factor in its revenue model.
Woodside Energy Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial performance in 2025 with multiple high‑impact project milestones (record production, Scarborough 94% complete, Louisiana LNG FID and partner sell‑downs), robust balance sheet metrics and achievement of sustainability targets. Near‑term challenges were acknowledged — a capital‑intensive transition year (Pluto turnaround, dry docks), tax (PRRT) and production timing uncertainty (Sangomar decline), decommissioning spend and some margin volatility in marketing. On balance, the company emphasised disciplined capital management, liquidity and partner‑led de‑risking which materially mitigate execution and funding risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Annual Production
Achieved record full-year production of 198.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, exceeding guidance and driven by Sangomar and portfolio reliability.
Sangomar Operational Excellence
Sangomar delivered nameplate ~100,000 bbl/day for most of the year at almost 99% reliability, contributing $2.6 billion to Woodside EBITDA since startup and prompting consideration of a potential Phase 2.
Strong Financial Results and Cash Generation
Underlying net profit after tax of $2.6 billion; generated $1.9 billion of free cash flow during a period of elevated capex; EBITDA margin above 70%.
Shareholder Returns and Payout Discipline
Board declared a final dividend of $0.59 per share bringing total fully franked FY dividend to $1.12 per share (total dividends reported $2.1 billion), representing an 80% payout ratio of underlying NPAT (top end of target range).
Unit Cost Reduction and Cash Breakeven
Reduced unit production costs by 4% to $7.80 per boe and reported an average cash breakeven of less than $34 per barrel, improving resilience to lower prices.
Progress on Scarborough
Scarborough Energy project 94% complete at year-end, on track for first LNG cargo in Q4 2026; major milestones included FPU assembly and arrival, completion of drilling for all 8 development wells, tie-in to Pluto export line and remote operations commissioning.
Louisiana LNG Sanction and De‑risking
Took FID for the three‑train, 16.5 mtpa Louisiana LNG project; project 22% complete and targeting first LNG in 2029. Strategic sell‑downs (Stonepeak, Williams) reduced Woodside's expected capital commitment to ~$9.9 billion (<60% of total project cost).
Trion and Other Growth Progress
Trion 50% complete at year-end with first oil targeted in 2028; lifting of first FPU module completed and drilling campaign preparations underway.
Contracting and Portfolio offtake
Contracted 4.7 million tonnes of new LNG supply to Tier 1 customers; approximately 75% of LNG volumes for 2026–2028 contracted, providing portfolio resilience and diversification.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Gearing at 18.2% (within 10–20% target range) and closing liquidity of $9.3 billion, supporting credit rating (BBB+) while funding growth and distributions.
Sustainability and Emissions Target Met
Achieved 2025 net equity Scope 1 & 2 greenhouse gas emissions target (15% reduction vs base); gross equity Scope 1 & 2 emissions fell year-on-year despite higher production and reliance on fewer carbon credits.
Safety Performance
Delivered strong safety outcomes with no high‑consequence injuries, Sangomar recorded no recordable injuries in first 18 months, and Scarborough FPU construction marked 3 years without a lost time incident.
Beaumont New Ammonia First Production
Beaumont achieved first ammonia in December 2025; ramp-up underway with offtakes for conventional ammonia and targeting lower-carbon ammonia (H2 2026) as CCS and hydrogen supply come online.
Negative Updates
Lower Realised Prices
Underlying NPAT performance was supported by record production but offset by lower realised commodity prices versus FY2024, reducing comparative earnings upside.
Transition Year and Maintenance Impact (2026)
2026 flagged as a transition year with a major Pluto turnaround, dry docks and tie‑ins that will elevate near‑term operating costs and depress production timing; Pluto turnaround scheduled Q2 2026 may constrain output and increase costs.
Sangomar Decline and Production Uncertainty
Sangomar is moving off plateau and annual production guidance implies a steeper near‑term decline in oil volumes; management noted uncertainty in the decline curve and will monitor performance through 2026.
Elevated Project Capex and Capital Intensity
Period of increased capital expenditure across Scarborough, Louisiana LNG and Trion; while sell‑downs reduced Woodside's share, near‑term capex remains high (Woodside expected CapEx ~$9.9 billion for Louisiana LNG share).
Tax and PRRT Uncertainty
Expected step‑up in petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) as Scarborough comes online and recent legislative changes add modelling uncertainty; management declined to quantify year‑on‑year PRRT movement, complicating NPAT and dividend forecasts.
Timing and Execution Risk on HoldCo Sell‑downs
Sell‑down process for Louisiana LNG HoldCo remains in progress; Stonepeak carry largely covers 2025–2026 but its expiry and desire for further partner sell‑downs create timing risk for de‑risking and capital relief.
Marketing Margin Compression and Volatility
Marketing margins softened in H2 with increased trading activity and narrower hub spreads (JKM/Henry Hub), leading to quarter‑to‑quarter EBIT volatility (marketing contributed ~8–10% of group EBIT).
Decommissioning and Near‑term Costs
Guided decommissioning spend of $500–$800 million in 2026 with major Bass Strait platform removals targeted for 2027, adding non‑operational cash outlays and project complexity.
Slower Uptake for Lower‑Carbon Ammonia
Customer uptake for lower‑carbon ammonia is slower than initially forecast, which may delay timing or scale of potential Beaumont Phase 2 expansion; Phase 2 remains contingent on market demand and commercial terms.
Hedge Position and Upside Limitation
Progressive hedging of ~18 million barrels for 2026 at ~USD70/bbl (management historically hedged up to ~30 million barrels) is defensive but limits upside capture if prices rise materially.
Company Guidance
Guidance and near‑term priorities: 2026 is a transition year with a major Pluto turnaround in Q2 2026 and Scarborough on track for first LNG cargo in Q4 2026 (Scarborough 94% complete at year‑end); Trion is ~50% complete targeting first oil in 2028; Louisiana LNG (three‑train, 16.5 mtpa) was 22% complete at year‑end and is targeting first LNG in 2029 with Woodside’s expected share of total CapEx now ~$9.9bn (below 60%) and Stonepeak funding ~75% of 2025–26 project CapEx; 2026 decommissioning spend is guided to ~$500–800m; 2025 metrics to note that underpin guidance include record production of 198.8 million boe, unit production costs of $7.80/boe (4% reduction y/y), free cash flow of $1.9bn, underlying NPAT of $2.6bn, cash breakeven of < $34/bbl, liquidity of $9.3bn and gearing of 18.2% (target range 10–20%); the company has hedged ~18 million barrels for 2026 at ~ $70/bbl, ~75% of LNG volumes for 2026–28 are contracted, and the Board declared a final dividend of $0.59/share (total FY dividend $1.12/share; 80% payout ratio); sustainability target of 15% net equity Scope 1 & 2 GHG reduction for 2025 was achieved.Woodside Energy Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Solid profitability and a generally healthy balance sheet, but off peak-cycle levels: multi-year revenue declines, lower net income into 2025, rising debt in 2025, and a swing to negative free cash flow in 2025 despite strong operating cash flow.Income Statement
Profitability remains solid in the most recent year, with strong gross profit and operating earnings, but earnings power has clearly cooled from the 2022 peak. Revenue has declined for multiple years (2023–2025), and net income fell from 2024 to 2025, indicating a less supportive commodity/price environment and/or cost pressure. Offsetting this, the company has shown it can generate strong profits in upcycles, though results appear more volatile across the cycle (including a major loss in 2020).72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks generally healthy with a large equity base relative to total debt in recent years (moderate leverage in 2023–2024). However, debt increased in 2025 versus 2024, which slightly weakens the trajectory. Returns on equity have also come down meaningfully from the 2022 high, consistent with softer profitability, but overall capitalization still provides a solid buffer for a cyclical business.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains strong (rising in 2025 versus 2024), supporting core operations. The key concern is cash generation after investment: free cash flow turned negative in 2025 after being positive in 2021–2024, suggesting heavier spending and/or weaker cash conversion versus the prior year. Cash flow performance has been volatile over time (very strong in 2022, negative in 2020 and again in 2025), which is a risk for dividends and discretionary capital returns.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.98B | 13.18B | 13.99B | 16.82B | 6.96B |
| Gross Profit | 4.54B | 5.68B | 6.47B | 10.28B | 3.12B |
| EBITDA | 9.40B | 9.50B | 8.70B | 10.41B | 4.12B |
| Net Income | 2.72B | 3.57B | 1.66B | 6.50B | 1.98B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 66.50B | 61.26B | 55.36B | 59.32B | 26.47B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.94B | 4.11B | 1.95B | 6.88B | 3.35B |
| Total Debt | 13.72B | 11.62B | 6.50B | 6.77B | 6.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 26.66B | 25.11B | 20.19B | 22.19B | 12.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 35.91B | 35.40B | 34.40B | 36.34B | 13.44B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -782.00M | 945.00M | 854.00M | 5.67B | 1.17B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.19B | 5.85B | 6.14B | 8.81B | 3.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.91B | -5.75B | -5.58B | -2.27B | -2.94B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.49B | 2.10B | -5.00B | -3.36B | -1.42B |
Woodside Energy Group Technical Analysis
Positive
14.51
Price Trends
17.02
Positive
16.55
Positive
16.08
Positive
Market Momentum
0.83
Negative
74.10
Negative
92.41
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WDS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.70, below the 50-day MA of 17.02, and below the 200-day MA of 16.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.10 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for WDS.
Woodside Energy Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $66.57B | 13.60 | 16.83% | 3.79% | -5.15% | -19.06% | |
77 Outperform | $138.69B | 17.86 | 12.32% | 3.43% | 8.41% | -16.12% | |
77 Outperform | $26.99B | 10.43 | 17.60% | 2.64% | 11.14% | -21.32% | |
76 Outperform | $38.34B | 18.54 | 9.20% | 1.17% | 64.84% | 219.47% | |
73 Outperform | $38.20B | 14.27 | 7.63% | 6.85% | 15.31% | 58.83% | |
72 Outperform | $52.35B | 32.93 | 6.86% | 2.39% | -2.48% | -65.26% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
WDS
Woodside Energy Group
20.48
6.09
42.29%
COP
Conocophillips
113.46
23.90
26.68%
DVN
Devon Energy
43.53
10.05
30.03%
EOG
EOG Resources
124.08
7.85
6.75%
EQT
EQT
61.42
13.28
27.59%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
53.08
7.63
16.79%
Woodside Energy Group Corporate Events
Woodside Posts Strong 2025 Reserve Additions Despite Lower Year-End Volumes
Feb 17, 2026
On 17 February 2026, Woodside released its annual reserves statement, reporting that at 31 December 2025 it held 1,882.1 MMboe of proved (1P) reserves, 2,999.5 MMboe of proved plus probable (2P) reserves, and 5,795.7 MMboe of 2C contingent resources, slightly down year-on-year but higher once divestments and production are excluded. The update highlighted strong reservoir performance at assets such as Pluto and Sangomar, reserve additions from sanctioned projects including Greater Western Flank 4, Turrum Phase 3 and the Atlantis expansion, and a reserves life of 8.9 years (1P) and 14.2 years (2P), reinforcing Woodside’s portfolio quality and its capacity to support long-term shareholder returns.
The most recent analyst rating on (WDS) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woodside Energy Group stock, see the WDS Stock Forecast page.
Woodside Energy Issues New Employee Incentive Securities
Dec 16, 2025
On December 16, 2025, Woodside Energy Group announced the issuance of 23,383 unquoted equity securities under an employee incentive scheme. These securities, which were initially granted as Notional Shares to Daniel Kalms, a key management personnel, have been converted to equity securities intended to be received as Woodside shares upon vesting. This move aligns with the company’s executive remuneration arrangements and reflects its strategic approach to employee incentives.
The most recent analyst rating on (WDS) stock is a Buy with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Woodside Energy Group stock, see the WDS Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.