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Conocophillips (COP)
NYSE:COP
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Conocophillips
(NYSE:COP)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$101.00
â–²(15.80%Upside)
Positive Factors
Operational Efficiency
ConocoPhillips achieved cost efficiencies with lower capital expenditures and operating expenses, highlighting successful optimization efforts.
Shareholder Returns
ConocoPhillips is committed to delivering even higher shareholder returns of USD10bn.
Negative Factors
Commodity Prices
Management indicated a potential slowdown in share buybacks due to declining commodity prices, which may impact returns to shareholders in the upcoming period.
Macroeconomic Risks
ConocoPhillips is exposed to significant macroeconomic risks as earnings depend on the price volatility of crude oil and natural gas.
Conocophillips (COP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$110.11B
Dividend Yield3.58%
Average Volume (3M)7.67M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth4.01%
EPS Growth-10.91%
CountryUS
Employees11,800
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength44
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.09
Shares Outstanding1,262,410,000
10 Day Avg. Volume7,388,949
30 Day Avg. Volume7,672,287
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.89
Price to Book (P/B)1.85
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio16.25
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$113.41Price Target Upside30.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
Conocophillips Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionConocoPhillips is a leading global energy company engaged in the exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Operating across various sectors within the energy industry, ConocoPhillips focuses on the efficient and safe extraction of energy resources, utilizing advanced technologies and sustainable practices. The company's core products and services are centered around the upstream segment of the oil and gas industry, with a significant presence in key regions such as North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyConocoPhillips generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. As an upstream company, it focuses on finding and extracting these resources from the ground, subsequently selling them to refineries and other buyers in the energy market. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) at market prices, which can fluctuate based on global supply and demand dynamics. Additionally, ConocoPhillips leverages strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its exploration and production capabilities, optimize costs, and gain access to new resources and markets. Factors such as commodity prices, operational efficiency, and geopolitical developments significantly impact the company's earnings.
Conocophillips Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Production
Measures the overall volume of oil and gas produced, indicating the company’s capacity to meet market demand and its operational efficiency.
Measures the overall volume of oil and gas produced, indicating the company’s capacity to meet market demand and its operational efficiency.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataConocophillips Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 0.29%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
ConocoPhillips demonstrated strong operational performance and cost reduction achievements in the first quarter, while successfully integrating Marathon Oil and returning significant capital to shareholders. However, the company faces challenges from a volatile macro environment, higher cash tax rates, and reduced APLNG distributions. Despite these challenges, the company's strong portfolio and execution capabilities provide resilience.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Production Performance
ConocoPhillips produced 2.389 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding the high end of their production guidance for the quarter. Lower 48 production averaged 1.462 million barrels per day.
Cost Reduction Achievements
The company announced a $0.5 billion reduction in capital spending and a $200 million reduction in operating costs, maintaining production guidance unchanged.
Successful Integration of Marathon Oil
The integration of Marathon Oil is progressing ahead of schedule, with additional opportunities to enhance capital efficiency and reduce costs being identified.
Significant Return of Capital to Shareholders
ConocoPhillips returned $2.5 billion to shareholders in the first quarter, including $1.5 billion in buybacks and $1 billion in ordinary dividends, representing 45% of CFO returned in the quarter.
Operational Milestones Achieved at Willow
The largest winter construction season at Willow was completed, achieving critical milestones and ensuring the project remains on track for first oil in 2029.
Negative Updates
Volatile Macro Environment
The macro environment is marked by uncertainty and volatility, with global economic growth and oil demand outlooks revised lower, causing oil prices to soften.
Higher Cash Tax Rate
The effective cash tax rate for the year is expected to be higher than prior guidance due to geographic mix and discrete deferred tax items, impacting cash flow.
APLNG Distribution Reduction
Full year APLNG distributions are now expected to be $800 million, primarily due to lower pricing, with no distributions expected in the second or fourth quarters.
Company Guidance
During the ConocoPhillips First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided updated guidance reflecting a focus on capital efficiency and cost reduction. ConocoPhillips announced a $0.5 billion reduction in capital spending and a $200 million decrease in operating costs, while maintaining their production guidance. The company generated $2.5 billion in shareholder returns for the quarter, representing 45% of its cash flow from operations (CFO), aligning with their long-term distribution framework. The first quarter saw production of 2.389 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with significant contributions from the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken regions. For full-year 2025, capital expenditures are projected to be between $12.3 billion and $12.6 billion, down from the prior guidance of approximately $12.9 billion. Additionally, the company anticipates full-year adjusted operating costs to range between $10.7 billion and $10.9 billion. The call also noted a change in leadership, with Bill Bullock retiring and Andy O'Brien stepping in as Chief Financial Officer.Conocophillips Financial Statement Overview
Summary
ConocoPhillips demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability metrics, conservative leverage, and excellent cash flow management. Despite a decrease in revenue and total assets, the company maintains stability with high equity and robust cash flow efficiency, positioning it well for potential growth and investment opportunities.Income Statement
ConocoPhillips displays strong profitability with a 64.86% gross profit margin and a 16.23% net profit margin for 2024. The EBIT margin is robust at 49.48%, indicating efficient operations. However, the revenue has declined by 1.57% compared to 2023, indicating a need for revenue growth strategies.80
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.44, reflecting a conservative approach to leverage, which is beneficial for stability. The equity ratio of 69.34% illustrates strong capitalization. However, the total assets have decreased significantly, requiring monitoring of asset management.75
Positive
Cash Flow
ConocoPhillips has shown strong free cash flow growth from 2023 to 2024, with a substantial operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.18, indicating excellent cash generation capability. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also high, reflecting efficient capital expenditure management.85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 56.95B | 57.86B | 78.49B | 45.83B | 18.78B | Gross Profit |
| 36.94B | 28.19B | 30.01B | 14.77B | 841.00M | EBIT |
| 28.19B | 27.04B | 28.09B | 14.00B | -1.89B | EBITDA |
| 24.05B | 25.78B | 37.13B | 21.09B | 4.52B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 9.24B | 10.96B | 18.68B | 8.08B | -2.65B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 6.11B | 6.61B | 9.24B | 6.59B | 7.86B | Total Assets |
| 122.78B | 95.92B | 93.83B | 90.66B | 62.62B | Total Debt |
| 24.32B | 19.63B | 16.64B | 19.93B | 15.37B | Net Debt |
| 18.72B | 14.00B | 10.19B | 14.91B | 12.38B | Total Liabilities |
| 57.98B | 46.65B | 45.83B | 45.26B | 32.77B | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.41B | 49.28B | 48.00B | 45.41B | 29.85B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 8.01B | 8.72B | 18.16B | 11.67B | 87.00M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 20.12B | 19.96B | 28.31B | 17.00B | 4.80B | Investing Cash Flow |
| 302.00M | -12.00B | -8.74B | -8.54B | -4.12B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -8.84B | -8.66B | -18.05B | -6.33B | -2.71B |
Conocophillips Technical Analysis
Negative
87.22
Price Trends
89.54
Negative
93.80
Negative
99.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.08
Negative
47.93
Neutral
41.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 87.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.06, below the 50-day MA of 89.54, and below the 200-day MA of 99.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COP.
Conocophillips Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $62.25B | 10.58 | 20.90% | 3.31% | -0.23% | -14.82% | |
77 Outperform | $42.10B | 18.85 | 20.82% | 1.42% | 8.08% | 10.59% | |
77 Outperform | $41.07B | 8.60 | 14.26% | 3.73% | 47.89% | -7.87% | |
74 Outperform | $41.87B | 17.22 | 9.43% | 2.12% | 1.35% | -33.30% | |
73 Outperform | $110.11B | 11.07 | 16.61% | 3.58% | 4.01% | -10.91% | |
73 Outperform | $20.73B | 7.35 | 20.88% | 3.87% | 12.06% | -16.37% | |
57 Neutral | $7.23B | 3.16 | -4.49% | 5.63% | 0.82% | -49.15% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
COP
Conocophillips
87.22
-22.65
-20.62%
DVN
Devon Energy
32.29
-13.33
-29.22%
EOG
EOG Resources
114.05
-3.91
-3.31%
HES
Hess
136.13
-9.64
-6.61%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
42.54
-17.11
-28.68%
FANG
Diamondback
140.56
-47.51
-25.26%
Conocophillips Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
ConocoPhillips Annual Meeting Elects Directors, Approves Auditor
Neutral
May 15, 2025
On May 13, 2025, ConocoPhillips held its annual stockholders meeting, where all 12 nominated directors were elected for a one-year term, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025. The advisory vote on executive compensation was approved, but a proposal to eliminate supermajority voting provisions and a stockholder proposal to remove emissions reduction targets were not passed.
The most recent analyst rating on (COP) stock is a Buy with a $151.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Conocophillips stock, see the COP Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.