Conocophillips (COP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $115.77B
• Dividend Yield: 3.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.44M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 8.41%
• EPS Growth: -16.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,800
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.61
• Shares Outstanding: 1,235,718,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,893,609
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,438,636
• PEG Ratio: -0.91
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.25
• 1Y Price Target: $111.94
• Price Target Upside: 19.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $103.00 ▲(9.94% Upside)

ConocoPhillips' strong financial performance, particularly in cash flow and balance sheet stability, is the most significant factor driving the stock score. The positive earnings call, with increased production guidance and strategic updates, further supports the score. Valuation metrics are favorable, offering a reasonable P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield. Technical analysis presents a neutral outlook, slightly tempering the overall score.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Performance

Strong cash flow growth indicates robust liquidity and financial flexibility, allowing ConocoPhillips to invest in growth opportunities and return capital to shareholders.

Production Guidance Increase

Increasing production guidance reflects operational efficiency and strong market demand, supporting long-term revenue growth and market position.

Dividend Increase

An increased dividend demonstrates confidence in future cash flows and enhances shareholder value, making the stock more attractive to income-focused investors.

Negative Factors

Willow Project Cost Increase

Rising costs for the Willow project could strain financial resources and impact profitability, posing risks to future cash flow and project returns.

Concerns Over Project Cost Overruns

Potential cost overruns in major projects can lead to budgetary pressures and reduced margins, affecting long-term financial performance and strategic objectives.

Decreased EBIT Margin

A declining EBIT margin suggests pressure on operational efficiency, which could hinder profitability and limit the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.

Conocophillips Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ConocoPhillips (COP) is a global oil and gas exploration and production company, headquartered in Houston, Texas. It operates across various sectors of the energy industry, including exploration and production (E&P), midstream operations, and refining. ConocoPhillips primarily focuses on the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, with significant assets in key regions such as North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. The company is dedicated to delivering sustainable energy solutions while maintaining a commitment to safety, environmental stewardship, and the communities in which it operates.

How the Company Makes Money

ConocoPhillips generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its revenue model is heavily reliant on the global prices of oil and natural gas, thereby making it sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices. The company also earns income from its midstream operations, which involve the transportation and processing of hydrocarbons. Additionally, ConocoPhillips engages in joint ventures and partnerships with other energy companies to enhance its resource development and operational efficiencies, further contributing to its revenue streams. The company strategically manages its portfolio of assets to optimize production and reduce costs, which is crucial for maintaining profitability in a competitive market.

Conocophillips Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ConocoPhillips exhibits a strong financial position with robust cash flow generation and a stable balance sheet. The company has a solid gross profit margin of 36.79% and a net profit margin of 14.67%. However, the declining EBIT margin from 27.06% to 18.86% indicates some pressure on operating efficiency.

Income Statement

ConocoPhillips has shown a solid performance in the TTM period with a gross profit margin of 36.79% and a net profit margin of 14.67%. The revenue growth rate of 4.39% in the TTM indicates a positive trend compared to the previous year. However, the EBIT margin has decreased from 27.06% in 2024 to 18.86% in the TTM, suggesting some pressure on operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.36 in the TTM, indicating a stable leverage position. Return on equity is at 13.56%, reflecting decent profitability, though it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

ConocoPhillips has demonstrated strong cash flow management with a significant free cash flow growth of 140.04% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.66 indicates efficient cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.83 shows robust cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	60.20B	54.61B	56.14B	78.58B	46.06B	18.77B
Gross Profit	18.04B	16.03B	18.20B	29.63B	14.73B	-646.00M
EBITDA	25.75B	24.43B	25.78B	37.13B	21.09B	4.52B
Net Income	8.83B	9.22B	10.92B	18.62B	8.08B	-2.70B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	122.47B	122.78B	95.92B	93.83B	90.66B	62.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.26B	6.11B	6.61B	9.24B	6.59B	7.86B
Total Debt	23.48B	25.35B	19.63B	17.19B	19.93B	15.37B
Total Liabilities	57.55B	57.98B	46.65B	45.83B	45.26B	32.77B
Stockholders Equity	64.92B	64.80B	49.28B	48.00B	45.41B	29.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	16.62B	8.01B	8.72B	18.16B	11.67B	87.00M
Operating Cash Flow	19.93B	20.12B	19.96B	28.31B	17.00B	4.80B
Investing Cash Flow	-10.19B	-11.15B	-12.00B	-8.74B	-8.54B	-4.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-9.71B	-8.84B	-8.66B	-18.05B	-6.33B	-2.71B

Conocophillips Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 93.69
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 93.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 89.25, above the 50-day MA of 89.76, and above the 200-day MA of 91.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.57 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COP.

Conocophillips Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FANG	81 Outperform	$45.44B	11.02	10.92%	2.52%	60.29%	-17.62%
DVN	79 Outperform	$23.50B	8.81	18.35%	2.51%	11.14%	-21.32%
COP	78 Outperform	$115.77B	13.25	15.37%	3.39%	8.41%	-16.12%
EOG	77 Outperform	$60.86B	11.17	18.48%	3.52%	-5.15%	-19.06%
CVX	73 Outperform	$302.03B	21.18	7.38%	4.56%	-3.44%	-22.05%
OXY	69 Neutral	$41.80B	30.88	5.82%	2.22%	-2.48%	-65.26%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Conocophillips Corporate Events

ConocoPhillips Reports Q3 2025 Earnings and Dividend Increase

ConocoPhillips, a leading global exploration and production company, focuses on delivering reliable and responsibly produced oil and gas, leveraging its diverse portfolio to meet global energy demands. In its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, ConocoPhillips announced an 8% increase in its quarterly dividend and provided preliminary guidance for 2026. The company reported earnings per share of $1.38 and adjusted earnings per share of $1.61, with cash from operations totaling $5.4 billion.

ConocoPhillips Earnings Call Highlights Strong Growth

The recent earnings call for ConocoPhillips was marked by a strong operational performance and the successful integration of Marathon Oil, promising significant future free cash flow growth. Despite some challenges with working capital and oil market volatility, the positive aspects of the company’s performance and strategic initiatives heavily outweigh these concerns.

ConocoPhillips Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results

ConocoPhillips is a leading global exploration and production company specializing in the responsible extraction of oil and gas, with a diverse portfolio aimed at meeting global energy demands.