Conocophillips (COP)
NYSE:COP
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Conocophillips
(NYSE:COP)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$138.00
â–²(18.92% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/06/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong cash generation and moderate leverage) and a constructive technical setup (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Earnings-call guidance further supports the outlook via lower 2026 capex/opex and a clear multi-year free-cash-flow improvement plan, while valuation appears reasonable with a ~3% dividend yield but not obviously cheap. Key offsetting risk remains commodity-driven cyclicality and sensitivity to oil/gas prices.
Positive Factors
Operating cash flow and FCF strength
Consistent multi-year operating cash flow and generally positive free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, dividends and buybacks. This underpins capital allocation flexibility and resilience through cycles, allowing investment in projects while maintaining shareholder returns.
Negative Factors
Commodity-price sensitivity and cash flow volatility
Material sensitivity to oil, gas and LNG prices makes earnings and free cash flow volatile across cycles. This structural commodity exposure can quickly offset operational gains, complicate multi-year planning and raise the risk that returns and investment programs are disrupted by price downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating cash flow and FCF strength
Consistent multi-year operating cash flow and generally positive free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, dividends and buybacks. This underpins capital allocation flexibility and resilience through cycles, allowing investment in projects while maintaining shareholder returns.
Read all positive factors
Conocophillips (COP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$148.41B
Dividend Yield3.43%
Average Volume (3M)10.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth7.51%
EPS Growth-18.91%
CountryUS
Employees11,800
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.02
Shares Outstanding1,218,853,000
10 Day Avg. Volume8,692,349
30 Day Avg. Volume10,145,773
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.79
Price to Book (P/B)1.82
Price to Sales (P/S)2.00
P/FCF Ratio6.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$141.94Price Target Upside22.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)8.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$65.40B
Conocophillips Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. It primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil...
How the Company Makes Money
ConocoPhillips primarily makes money by producing hydrocarbons (oil, natural gas, and NGLs) from its operated and non-operated upstream assets and selling those volumes under a mix of market-based sales and contractual arrangements. Revenue is gen...
Conocophillips Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyConocophillips Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized numerous operational and financial accomplishments — production growth, strong Q4 CFO, disciplined capital allocation, successful Marathon integration, robust liquidity and balance sheet improvements, multi-year reserve replacement, substantial progress on LNG and Willow projects, and clear 2026 cost and capital efficiency targets. The lowlights were largely manageable: single-year reserve replacement slightly below 100%, remaining pre-productive capital keeping breakeven elevated until projects ramp, an unresolved Venezuela recovery process, an incomplete divestiture target, one rig incident (no injuries), and ongoing commodity-price sensitivities. Overall, positive operational momentum and financial position materially outweigh the manageable risks and near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Full-Year Production Growth and Q4 Delivery
Pro forma production grew 2.5% in 2025. Q4 production was 2,320,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, consistent with the midpoint of guidance; 2026 production guidance set at 2,330,000–2,260,000 boe/d (modest growth).
Negative Updates
Reserve Replacement Slightly Below 100% in 2025
Organic reserve replacement for 2025 came in just under 100% (though multi-year metrics remain strong); price-related revisions reduced the single-year metric below 100%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Production Growth and Q4 Delivery
Pro forma production grew 2.5% in 2025. Q4 production was 2,320,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, consistent with the midpoint of guidance; 2026 production guidance set at 2,330,000–2,260,000 boe/d (modest growth).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ConocoPhillips guided 2026 capex of about $12 billion (down ~$600M y/y) and operating costs of about $10.2 billion (down ~$400M), targeting a combined ~$1 billion reduction versus 2025, with full‑year production guided to 2.33–2.26 million boe/d (Q1 2.30–2.34 million boe/d including weather downtime). The company reiterated returning roughly 45% of CFO to shareholders (continuing buybacks and a base dividend growing at a top‑quartile S&P 500 rate), starting 1) a multiyear free‑cash‑flow improvement of about $1 billion per year in 2026–2028 and 2) a $7 billion FCF inflection by 2029 (including ~$4 billion from Willow), which management says should push FCF breakeven into the low‑$30s/boe WTI by decade end; additional metrics noted include ~10 mtpa LNG offtake, continued Lower‑48 D&C efficiency gains (2025 >15%), and a strong liquidity position (cash & ST investments $7.4B plus $1.1B long‑term liquid investments).Conocophillips Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 58.71B | 54.61B | 56.05B | 78.58B | 46.06B |
| Gross Profit | 14.46B | 16.03B | 17.81B | 29.63B | 14.73B |
| EBITDA | 23.18B | 24.43B | 25.78B | 37.13B | 21.09B |
| Net Income | 7.99B | 9.22B | 10.92B | 18.62B | 8.08B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 121.94B | 122.78B | 95.92B | 93.83B | 90.66B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.98B | 6.11B | 6.61B | 9.24B | 6.59B |
| Total Debt | 23.44B | 25.35B | 19.63B | 17.19B | 19.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 57.45B | 57.98B | 46.65B | 45.83B | 45.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 64.49B | 64.80B | 49.28B | 48.00B | 45.41B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.77B | 8.01B | 8.72B | 18.16B | 11.67B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 19.80B | 20.12B | 19.96B | 28.31B | 17.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.84B | -11.15B | -12.00B | -8.74B | -8.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -10.10B | -8.84B | -8.66B | -18.05B | -6.33B |
Conocophillips Technical Analysis
Neutral
116.04
Price Trends
119.18
Negative
106.88
Positive
98.87
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.18
Positive
37.97
Neutral
17.62
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 116.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 126.84, below the 50-day MA of 119.18, and above the 200-day MA of 98.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for COP.
Conocophillips Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $71.32B | 11.37 | 16.76% | 3.79% | -3.59% | -18.88% | |
77 Outperform | $148.41B | 14.67 | 12.28% | 3.43% | 7.51% | -18.91% | |
75 Outperform | $54.80B | 26.12 | 4.34% | 2.70% | 35.79% | -64.28% | |
74 Outperform | $369.57B | 22.91 | 7.32% | 4.54% | -4.62% | -31.48% | |
74 Outperform | $29.77B | 10.12 | 17.47% | 2.64% | 7.46% | -8.75% | |
73 Outperform | $56.65B | 16.93 | 6.43% | 2.39% | -8.04% | -36.48% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.