Conocophillips (COP) AI Stock Analysis

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Conocophillips

(NYSE:COP)

Select Model

Outperform 77 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:77Outperform

Price Target:

$106.00

▲(19.52% Upside)

ConocoPhillips' strong financial performance and positive earnings call are significant strengths, supported by solid valuation metrics. Technical analysis indicates a stable market position, though industry volatility and free cash flow challenges require attention.

Positive Factors

Strong Production Performance

Exceeding production guidance indicates operational efficiency and strong asset management, which can drive revenue growth and enhance market position.

Successful Asset Integration

Successful integration of acquired assets enhances operational synergies and cost efficiencies, strengthening competitive advantage and future profitability.

Increased Asset Sales Target

Increasing asset sales targets reflects strategic portfolio optimization, which can improve capital allocation and focus on high-return projects.

Negative Factors

Deferred Tax and Working Capital Challenges

Working capital challenges and tax complexities can strain cash flow and financial flexibility, potentially impacting operational efficiency and investment capacity.

Choppy Oil Market Conditions

Volatile oil market conditions can lead to unpredictable revenue streams, affecting profitability and planning, especially in a commodity-driven industry.

Negative Free Cash Flow Growth

Negative free cash flow growth can limit the company's ability to invest in new projects or return capital to shareholders, impacting long-term growth prospects.

Conocophillips (COP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$109.94B

Dividend Yield3.52%

Average Volume (3M)6.69M

Price to Earnings (P/E)11.8

Beta (1Y)0.63

Revenue Growth2.45%

EPS Growth-17.08%

CountryUS

Employees11,800

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength52

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.42

Shares Outstanding1,248,942,300

10 Day Avg. Volume6,610,944

30 Day Avg. Volume6,691,803

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.27

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.17

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.13

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$114.06

Price Target Upside28.61% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering18

Conocophillips Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. It primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of conventional and unconventional exploration prospects. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyConocoPhillips generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company operates on a revenue model that is heavily influenced by global commodity prices, which can fluctuate significantly. Key revenue streams include the sale of hydrocarbons produced from its upstream operations, as well as the transportation and processing of these products. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and collaborations with other energy firms, which can enhance its operational efficiency and market reach. Factors contributing to its earnings also include the effective management of production costs, technological advancements in extraction methods, and its ability to adapt to changing market dynamics within the energy sector.

Conocophillips Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Total Production

Total Production
Measures the overall volume of oil and gas produced, indicating the company’s capacity to meet market demand and its operational efficiency.

Chart InsightsConocoPhillips' total production has shown a significant upward trend, reaching 2.389 million barrels per day in Q1 2025, driven by strong contributions from the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken regions. Despite a challenging macro environment and higher cash tax rates, the company is focused on capital efficiency and cost reductions, maintaining robust production guidance. The successful integration of Marathon Oil and strategic cost management are enhancing resilience, while substantial returns to shareholders underscore confidence in their operational strategy.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Conocophillips Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 08, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call depicted a strong operational and financial performance, highlighted by exceeding production guidance, successful integration of Marathon Oil assets, increased asset sales targets, and significant cost reductions. However, challenges such as deferred tax complexities and a choppy oil market were noted.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Production Exceeds Guidance

ConocoPhillips produced 2,391,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 2025, exceeding the high end of their production guidance. Lower 48 production was 1,508,000 barrels per day, and Alaska and International production averaged 883,000 barrels per day.

Successful Marathon Oil Integration

The integration of Marathon Oil assets is complete, significantly outperforming the acquisition case. ConocoPhillips has identified an additional $1 billion of cost reduction and margin enhancement opportunities, on top of the $1 billion of expected Marathon synergies.

Increased Asset Sales Target

The company exceeded its $2 billion asset sales objective ahead of schedule and raised the total disposition target to $5 billion by the end of 2026.

Strong Financial Performance

In Q2 2025, ConocoPhillips reported adjusted earnings of $1.42 per share and $4.7 billion of cash flow from operations (CFO). The company returned $2.2 billion to shareholders, including $1.2 billion in buybacks and $1 billion in ordinary dividends.

Cost Reductions and Synergies

ConocoPhillips has identified over $2 billion in run rate improvements by the end of 2026, including $1 billion of Marathon synergies and $1 billion in additional cost reductions and margin enhancements.

Negative Updates

Deferred Tax and Working Capital Challenges

The company experienced a $1.5 billion working capital headwind in Q2 2025 and cited complexities in deferred taxes due to one-off discrete items and changes in the tax bill.

Choppy Oil Market Conditions

ConocoPhillips described the oil market as 'choppy' with more supply than demand in the short term, despite stable prices in the mid-60s.

Company Guidance

During the second quarter 2025 earnings call, ConocoPhillips provided comprehensive guidance on several key metrics. The company exceeded the high end of its production guidance, achieving 2,391,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with Lower 48 production alone averaging 1,508,000 barrels per day. They maintained the midpoint of their full-year production guidance despite the sale of Anadarko Basin assets for $1.3 billion, continuing their strategy of high-grading the asset portfolio. Capital expenditures were slightly down from the previous quarter at $3.3 billion. The company returned $2.2 billion to shareholders, including $1.2 billion in buybacks and $1 billion in dividends, consistent with their goal of distributing about 45% of full-year cash flow from operations (CFO) to shareholders. The asset integration of Marathon Oil was completed, yielding a 25% increase in low-cost supply resource estimates and doubling the initial resource estimate in the Permian. Additionally, ConocoPhillips increased its total asset disposition target to $5 billion, having already exceeded its $2 billion target ahead of schedule. They identified over $1 billion in cost reduction and margin enhancement opportunities, which, along with major projects and a favorable $70 WTI price environment, are expected to drive a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.

Conocophillips Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ConocoPhillips demonstrates robust financial health with strong revenue growth, healthy profit margins, and efficient cash flow management. The company maintains a strong equity position and moderate leverage, supporting its growth potential in the volatile Oil & Gas industry.

Income Statement

Very Positive

ConocoPhillips shows strong financial performance with a consistent revenue growth trend from $45.83B in 2021 to $58.53B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. The Gross Profit Margin is robust at 40.1% TTM, and the Net Profit Margin is impressive at 16.3% TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 36.6% and 43.6% respectively, indicating efficient operational management. Although there was a slight revenue decline in 2023, the overall trajectory remains positive.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.36 TTM, demonstrating moderate leverage. The Return on Equity stands at 14.6% TTM, indicating good profitability on shareholders' investments. The Equity Ratio is solid at 52.5% TTM, showing a stable capital structure. However, a consistent increase in total assets is slightly offset by increasing liabilities.

Cash Flow

Positive

ConocoPhillips exhibits strong cash flow generation with a Free Cash Flow of $12.05B TTM, a significant increase from $8.01B in 2024. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is 2.23 TTM, suggesting efficient cash utilization. However, there is a need to monitor capital expenditures, which have fluctuated significantly over the periods.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	57.67B	54.61B	56.14B	78.58B	46.06B	18.77B
Gross Profit	16.05B	16.03B	18.20B	29.63B	14.73B	-646.00M
EBITDA	25.58B	24.43B	25.78B	37.13B	21.09B	4.52B
Net Income	9.16B	9.22B	10.92B	18.62B	8.08B	-2.70B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	122.60B	122.78B	95.92B	93.83B	90.66B	62.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.34B	6.11B	6.61B	9.24B	6.59B	7.86B
Total Debt	23.53B	25.35B	19.63B	17.19B	19.93B	15.37B
Total Liabilities	57.03B	57.98B	46.65B	45.83B	45.26B	32.77B
Stockholders Equity	65.57B	64.80B	49.28B	48.00B	45.41B	29.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.92B	8.01B	8.72B	18.16B	11.67B	87.00M
Operating Cash Flow	19.82B	20.12B	19.96B	28.31B	17.00B	4.80B
Investing Cash Flow	-9.66B	-11.15B	-12.00B	-8.74B	-8.54B	-4.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-9.59B	-8.84B	-8.66B	-18.05B	-6.33B	-2.71B

Conocophillips Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price88.69

Price Trends

50DMA

93.13

Negative

100DMA

92.82

Negative

200DMA

93.07

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.64

Negative

RSI

44.35

Neutral

STOCH

61.84

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 88.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 90.34, below the 50-day MA of 93.13, and below the 200-day MA of 93.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COP.

Conocophillips Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COP	―	$109.94B	11.81	15.88%	3.52%	2.45%	-17.08%
EOG	―	$58.08B	10.34	19.63%	3.69%	-5.42%	-20.52%
CVX	―	$318.49B	20.08	8.97%	4.35%	-5.02%	-23.13%
DVN	―	$20.93B	7.39	20.60%	2.85%	10.98%	-19.25%
FANG	―	$42.22B	10.37	13.55%	2.70%	51.78%	-27.29%
Sector *	―	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
OXY	―	$41.91B	25.01	6.98%	2.22%	-1.66%	-58.96%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

COP

Conocophillips

88.69

-10.43

-10.52%

CVX

Chevron

155.28

13.20

9.29%

DVN

Devon Energy

32.93

-4.17

-11.24%

EOG

EOG Resources

106.78

-9.68

-8.31%

OXY

Occidental Petroleum

42.30

-6.76

-13.78%

FANG

Diamondback

144.40

-26.72

-15.61%

Conocophillips Corporate Events

ConocoPhillips Earnings Call Highlights Strong Growth

Aug 12, 2025

The recent earnings call for ConocoPhillips was marked by a strong operational performance and the successful integration of Marathon Oil, promising significant future free cash flow growth. Despite some challenges with working capital and oil market volatility, the positive aspects of the company’s performance and strategic initiatives heavily outweigh these concerns.

ConocoPhillips Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results

Aug 8, 2025

ConocoPhillips is a leading global exploration and production company specializing in the responsible extraction of oil and gas, with a diverse portfolio aimed at meeting global energy demands.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 09, 2025