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Conocophillips (COP)
NYSE:COP
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Conocophillips
(NYSE:COP)
Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$108.00
â–²(13.82% Upside)
Positive Factors
Cost Efficiency
CAPEX was lower than consensus estimates, indicating cost efficiency.
Earnings
COP reported solid 2Q results, with EPS & CFPS beating consensus by 6%.
Shareholder Returns
ConocoPhillips is committed to delivering even higher shareholder returns of USD10bn.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow
Cash flow from operations in Q2'25 is expected to be impacted by a significant tax headwind.
Macroeconomic Risks
ConocoPhillips is exposed to significant macroeconomic risks as earnings depend on the price volatility of crude oil and natural gas.
Tax Impact
Higher tax rates partially offset the positive impact of updated earnings estimates.
Conocophillips (COP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$117.40B
Dividend Yield3.29%
Average Volume (3M)6.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.6
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth2.45%
EPS Growth-17.08%
CountryUS
Employees11,800
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength46
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.42
Shares Outstanding1,248,942,300
10 Day Avg. Volume7,662,121
30 Day Avg. Volume6,480,315
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.13
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$115.32Price Target Upside21.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
Conocophillips Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionConocoPhillips (COP) is a leading global oil and gas exploration and production company headquartered in Houston, Texas. It operates across various segments, primarily focusing on upstream activities related to the exploration, production, and transportation of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. ConocoPhillips has a diverse portfolio of assets and operations in some of the world's most significant oil and gas basins, including North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, providing a wide range of energy products and services.
How the Company Makes MoneyConocoPhillips generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company operates on a revenue model that is heavily influenced by global commodity prices, which can fluctuate significantly. Key revenue streams include the sale of hydrocarbons produced from its upstream operations, as well as the transportation and processing of these products. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and collaborations with other energy firms, which can enhance its operational efficiency and market reach. Factors contributing to its earnings also include the effective management of production costs, technological advancements in extraction methods, and its ability to adapt to changing market dynamics within the energy sector.
Conocophillips Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Production
Measures the overall volume of oil and gas produced, indicating the company’s capacity to meet market demand and its operational efficiency.
Measures the overall volume of oil and gas produced, indicating the company’s capacity to meet market demand and its operational efficiency.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataConocophillips Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 08, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 3.32%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call depicted a strong operational and financial performance, highlighted by exceeding production guidance, successful integration of Marathon Oil assets, increased asset sales targets, and significant cost reductions. However, challenges such as deferred tax complexities and a choppy oil market were noted.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Production Exceeds Guidance
ConocoPhillips produced 2,391,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 2025, exceeding the high end of their production guidance. Lower 48 production was 1,508,000 barrels per day, and Alaska and International production averaged 883,000 barrels per day.
Successful Marathon Oil Integration
The integration of Marathon Oil assets is complete, significantly outperforming the acquisition case. ConocoPhillips has identified an additional $1 billion of cost reduction and margin enhancement opportunities, on top of the $1 billion of expected Marathon synergies.
Increased Asset Sales Target
The company exceeded its $2 billion asset sales objective ahead of schedule and raised the total disposition target to $5 billion by the end of 2026.
Strong Financial Performance
In Q2 2025, ConocoPhillips reported adjusted earnings of $1.42 per share and $4.7 billion of cash flow from operations (CFO). The company returned $2.2 billion to shareholders, including $1.2 billion in buybacks and $1 billion in ordinary dividends.
Cost Reductions and Synergies
ConocoPhillips has identified over $2 billion in run rate improvements by the end of 2026, including $1 billion of Marathon synergies and $1 billion in additional cost reductions and margin enhancements.
Negative Updates
Deferred Tax and Working Capital Challenges
The company experienced a $1.5 billion working capital headwind in Q2 2025 and cited complexities in deferred taxes due to one-off discrete items and changes in the tax bill.
Choppy Oil Market Conditions
ConocoPhillips described the oil market as 'choppy' with more supply than demand in the short term, despite stable prices in the mid-60s.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter 2025 earnings call, ConocoPhillips provided comprehensive guidance on several key metrics. The company exceeded the high end of its production guidance, achieving 2,391,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with Lower 48 production alone averaging 1,508,000 barrels per day. They maintained the midpoint of their full-year production guidance despite the sale of Anadarko Basin assets for $1.3 billion, continuing their strategy of high-grading the asset portfolio. Capital expenditures were slightly down from the previous quarter at $3.3 billion. The company returned $2.2 billion to shareholders, including $1.2 billion in buybacks and $1 billion in dividends, consistent with their goal of distributing about 45% of full-year cash flow from operations (CFO) to shareholders. The asset integration of Marathon Oil was completed, yielding a 25% increase in low-cost supply resource estimates and doubling the initial resource estimate in the Permian. Additionally, ConocoPhillips increased its total asset disposition target to $5 billion, having already exceeded its $2 billion target ahead of schedule. They identified over $1 billion in cost reduction and margin enhancement opportunities, which, along with major projects and a favorable $70 WTI price environment, are expected to drive a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.Conocophillips Financial Statement Overview
Summary
ConocoPhillips demonstrates robust financial health with strong revenue growth, healthy profit margins, and efficient cash flow management. The company maintains a strong equity position and moderate leverage, supporting its growth potential in the volatile Oil & Gas industry.Income Statement
ConocoPhillips shows strong financial performance with a consistent revenue growth trend from $45.83B in 2021 to $58.53B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. The Gross Profit Margin is robust at 40.1% TTM, and the Net Profit Margin is impressive at 16.3% TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 36.6% and 43.6% respectively, indicating efficient operational management. Although there was a slight revenue decline in 2023, the overall trajectory remains positive.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.36 TTM, demonstrating moderate leverage. The Return on Equity stands at 14.6% TTM, indicating good profitability on shareholders' investments. The Equity Ratio is solid at 52.5% TTM, showing a stable capital structure. However, a consistent increase in total assets is slightly offset by increasing liabilities.80
Positive
Cash Flow
ConocoPhillips exhibits strong cash flow generation with a Free Cash Flow of $12.05B TTM, a significant increase from $8.01B in 2024. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is 2.23 TTM, suggesting efficient cash utilization. However, there is a need to monitor capital expenditures, which have fluctuated significantly over the periods.78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 57.67B | 54.61B | 56.14B | 78.58B | 46.06B | 18.77B |
| Gross Profit | 16.05B | 16.03B | 18.20B | 29.63B | 14.73B | -646.00M |
| EBITDA | 25.58B | 24.43B | 25.78B | 37.13B | 21.09B | 4.52B |
| Net Income | 9.16B | 9.22B | 10.92B | 18.62B | 8.08B | -2.70B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 122.60B | 122.78B | 95.92B | 93.83B | 90.66B | 62.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.34B | 6.11B | 6.61B | 9.24B | 6.59B | 7.86B |
| Total Debt | 23.53B | 25.35B | 19.63B | 17.19B | 19.93B | 15.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 57.03B | 57.98B | 46.65B | 45.83B | 45.26B | 32.77B |
| Stockholders Equity | 65.57B | 64.80B | 49.28B | 48.00B | 45.41B | 29.85B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.92B | 8.01B | 8.72B | 18.16B | 11.67B | 87.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 19.82B | 20.12B | 19.96B | 28.31B | 17.00B | 4.80B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.66B | -11.15B | -12.00B | -8.74B | -8.54B | -4.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -9.59B | -8.84B | -8.66B | -18.05B | -6.33B | -2.71B |
Conocophillips Technical Analysis
Positive
94.89
Price Trends
92.99
Positive
90.76
Positive
95.23
Negative
Market Momentum
0.49
Negative
55.96
Neutral
53.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 94.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 94.02, above the 50-day MA of 92.99, and below the 200-day MA of 95.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COP.
Conocophillips Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $117.40B | 12.61 | 15.88% | 3.29% | 2.45% | -17.08% | |
77 Outperform | $21.30B | 7.52 | 20.60% | 3.37% | 10.98% | -19.25% | |
77 Outperform | $64.06B | 11.41 | 19.63% | 3.24% | -5.42% | -20.52% | |
76 Outperform | $40.39B | 9.92 | 13.55% | 2.83% | 51.78% | -27.29% | |
71 Outperform | $43.52B | 25.98 | 6.98% | 2.08% | -1.66% | -58.96% | |
54 Neutral | C$4.15B | 0.97 | 16.40% | 5.23% | 10.45% | -57.37% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
COP
Conocophillips
94.89
-11.64
-10.93%
DVN
Devon Energy
33.78
-8.53
-20.16%
EOG
EOG Resources
118.36
-2.96
-2.44%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
44.27
-10.75
-19.54%
FANG
Diamondback
137.87
-48.92
-26.19%
Conocophillips Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
ConocoPhillips Expands Board with New Appointment
Positive
Jul 1, 2025
On July 1, 2025, ConocoPhillips announced the appointment of Kathleen McGinty to its Board of Directors, expanding the board from 12 to 13 members. McGinty, who brings extensive experience in sustainability and leadership roles in both the private and public sectors, will serve on the Audit and Finance Committee and the Public Policy and Sustainability Committee. Her appointment is expected to enhance the board’s perspective on sustainability as ConocoPhillips continues to focus on its returns-focused value proposition.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.