Conocophillips (COP)
NYSE:COP
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Conocophillips
(NYSE:COP)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$129.00
â–²(11.17% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/15/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash flow generation and a conservative balance sheet, reinforced by a positive earnings-call outlook highlighting cost reductions and disciplined shareholder returns. These strengths are tempered by weaker near-term technical momentum and cyclicality reflected in cooling revenue/margins versus the 2022 peak; valuation is reasonable but not a clear bargain given the cycle.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent, high-quality cash generation (TTM free cash flow growth ~9.3% and operating cash flow covering accounting earnings ~1.65x) underpins durable capital allocation: funds capex, debt service, and sustained shareholder returns without relying on one-off asset sales.
Negative Factors
Cyclicality and revenue decline
E&P earnings remain highly cyclical; the notable TTM revenue and margin compression from the 2022 peak illustrates sensitivity to commodity prices. If oil/gas prices weaken, cash flow, reinvestment capacity, and returns could deteriorate materially over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent, high-quality cash generation (TTM free cash flow growth ~9.3% and operating cash flow covering accounting earnings ~1.65x) underpins durable capital allocation: funds capex, debt service, and sustained shareholder returns without relying on one-off asset sales.
Read all positive factors
Conocophillips Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyConocophillips (COP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$149.13B
Dividend Yield3.43%
Average Volume (3M)10.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.5
Beta (1Y)0.34
Revenue Growth1.02%
EPS Growth-25.38%
CountryUS
Employees11,800
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.89
Shares Outstanding1,218,294,100
10 Day Avg. Volume8,692,349
30 Day Avg. Volume10,145,773
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.79
Price to Book (P/B)1.82
Price to Sales (P/S)2.00
P/FCF Ratio6.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$142.10Price Target Upside22.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)9.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$68.09B
Conocophillips Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. It primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil...
How the Company Makes Money
ConocoPhillips primarily makes money by producing hydrocarbons (oil, natural gas, and NGLs) from its operated and non-operated upstream assets and selling those volumes under a mix of market-based sales and contractual arrangements. Revenue is gen...
Conocophillips Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong financial and operational performance: meaningful free cash flow ($2.4B), substantial shareholder returns ($2.0B returned in Q1), solid liquidity, Lower 48 production growth (+4% YoY), progress on major projects (Willow 50% complete, Port Arthur on track), and tangible cost savings (guidance down $400M vs 2025 and a $1B run-rate target). Offsetting these positives are significant macro and geopolitical headwinds driven by the Middle East conflict (supply curtailments, Qatar disruption, and LNG tightness), modest near-term guidance impacts (Qatar exclusion ~20k boe/d and Surmont royalty ~15k boe/d), and a small increase in 2026 capex to preserve Permian efficiency. Overall, the company presents strong execution and financial positioning while appropriately communicating and planning around elevated geopolitical and market uncertainty.Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
Generated $2.4 billion of free cash flow in Q1 and returned $2.0 billion to shareholders ( $1.0B ordinary dividend + $1.0B share repurchases). First-quarter CFO was $5.4 billion and management remains committed to returning ~45% of CFO to shareholders.
Negative Updates
Middle East Conflict Driving Market Volatility and Supply Curtailments
Ongoing conflict tightened crude oil and LNG markets; management cited roughly 10 million barrels per day of production offline and ~8 million barrels per day of global refinery run cuts. Company downgraded its view of global oil demand to flat year-over-year with downside risk if the conflict persists.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
Generated $2.4 billion of free cash flow in Q1 and returned $2.0 billion to shareholders ( $1.0B ordinary dividend + $1.0B share repurchases). First-quarter CFO was $5.4 billion and management remains committed to returning ~45% of CFO to shareholders.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ConocoPhillips updated 2026 guidance with the annual production midpoint at 2.31 million BOE/d (Q2 midpoint 2.20 MM BOE/d), reflecting a 20k BOE/d annual impact from excluding Qatar and a 15k BOE/d royalty increase at Surmont; full‑year operating costs remain $10.2 billion (a $400 million reduction vs. 2025) with a $1 billion run‑rate savings target by year‑end; capital spending is now $12.0–$12.5 billion (vs. about $12 billion prior, ~2% higher at the midpoint, ~ $250 million incremental) including an added Permian rig to sustain efficiency; management expects cash from operations to be materially higher, will return ~45% of CFO to shareholders (with a ~30% floor and base dividend growth targeted competitive with the S&P 500 top quartile), remains unhedged (about 40% of crude linked to premium markets), and reiterated delivery of a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029 (Willow 50% complete; Port Arthur on track for first LNG in 2027).Conocophillips Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 58.31B | 58.71B | 54.61B | 56.05B | 78.58B | 46.06B |
| Gross Profit | 17.02B | 14.46B | 16.03B | 17.81B | 29.63B | 14.73B |
| EBITDA | 22.44B | 23.18B | 24.43B | 25.78B | 37.13B | 21.09B |
| Net Income | 7.32B | 7.99B | 9.22B | 10.92B | 18.62B | 8.08B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 122.72B | 121.94B | 122.78B | 95.92B | 93.83B | 90.66B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.36B | 6.98B | 6.11B | 6.61B | 9.24B | 6.59B |
| Total Debt | 23.33B | 23.44B | 25.35B | 19.63B | 17.19B | 19.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 58.18B | 57.45B | 57.98B | 46.65B | 45.83B | 45.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 64.54B | 64.49B | 64.80B | 49.28B | 48.00B | 45.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 18.33B | 16.77B | 8.01B | 8.72B | 18.16B | 11.67B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.98B | 19.80B | 20.12B | 19.96B | 28.31B | 17.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.30B | -8.84B | -11.15B | -12.00B | -8.74B | -8.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -9.15B | -10.10B | -8.84B | -8.66B | -18.05B | -6.33B |
Conocophillips Technical Analysis
Neutral
116.04
Price Trends
119.18
Negative
106.88
Positive
98.87
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.18
Positive
37.97
Neutral
17.62
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 116.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 126.84, below the 50-day MA of 119.18, and above the 200-day MA of 98.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for COP.
Conocophillips Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $74.71B | 9.71 | 18.28% | 3.79% | 0.31% | -5.71% | |
69 Neutral | $149.13B | 18.50 | 11.29% | 3.43% | 1.02% | -25.38% | |
69 Neutral | $57.06B | 65.10 | 14.78% | 2.64% | 1.96% | -18.06% | |
69 Neutral | $59.30B | 4.74 | 12.82% | 2.39% | -15.17% | -66.00% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $380.59B | 46.35 | 6.23% | 4.54% | -2.16% | -33.98% | |
62 Neutral | $57.26B | 97.11 | 1.06% | 2.70% | 18.09% | -94.57% |
* Energy Sector Average
COP
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Conocophillips Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
ConocoPhillips Stockholders Back Board, Governance and Auditors
Positive
May 14, 2026
ConocoPhillips held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 12, 2026, with 1,218,853,041 shares outstanding and entitled to vote. All 13 nominated directors were elected to one-year terms, reinforcing continuity in the company’s board lead...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.