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Conocophillips
(NYSE:COP)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$129.00
â–²(7.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance—especially robust free cash flow and moderate leverage—plus a constructive earnings call emphasizing continued shareholder returns and a well-funded operating plan. Offsetting factors are normalized (lower) margins versus peak-cycle levels, mixed/neutral technical setup, and a valuation that appears reasonable rather than clearly cheap for a cyclical producer.
Positive Factors
Robust free cash flow generation
Sustained, large free cash flow provides durable funding for capital spending, dividends and buybacks without reliance on external financing. High cash conversion (FCF near net income) supports portfolio optionality, self-funding LNG/Willow projects and cushions earnings through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Commodity-cycle sensitivity and margin normalization
E&P earnings and margins remain highly exposed to commodity price swings; lower post-peak margins imply recurring volatility in earnings and FCF. This structural sensitivity constrains predictability of returns and may require higher reinvestment or slower buybacks if prices retreat, affecting long-term cash distribution plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Robust free cash flow generation
Sustained, large free cash flow provides durable funding for capital spending, dividends and buybacks without reliance on external financing. High cash conversion (FCF near net income) supports portfolio optionality, self-funding LNG/Willow projects and cushions earnings through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Conocophillips Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales by country or region, revealing where the company earns money and how exposed it is to local price differentials, regulations, taxes, and export constraints. Geographic concentration can amplify regional risks or show diversification that smooths earnings across cycles.
Breaks down sales by country or region, revealing where the company earns money and how exposed it is to local price differentials, regulations, taxes, and export constraints. Geographic concentration can amplify regional risks or show diversification that smooths earnings across cycles.
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The Fly
The FlyConocophillips (COP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$141.29B
Dividend Yield2.68%
Average Volume (3M)7.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.3
Beta (1Y)0.25
Revenue Growth9.47%
EPS Growth1.21%
CountryUS
Employees9,900
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.56
Shares Outstanding1,201,337,500
10 Day Avg. Volume5,704,518
30 Day Avg. Volume7,177,511
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.79
Price to Book (P/B)1.82
Price to Sales (P/S)2.00
P/FCF Ratio6.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$146.86Price Target Upside22.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)9.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$69.25B
Conocophillips Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs...
How the Company Makes Money
ConocoPhillips makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons (crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs) from its portfolio of operated and non-operated upstream assets and selling those volumes into market-based pricing channels.
Key revenue streams:
1...
Conocophillips Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operational and financial achievements: production above guidance, record Permian volumes, large free cash flow generation ($4.2B), completed disposition target early, expanded LNG commercial portfolio (now 12 mtpa), and a strong balance sheet ($8.1B cash). Management reiterated a clear path to a $7B free cash flow inflection by 2029, ongoing cost reductions, and lower structural breakevens. The primary negatives were controllable: short-term production impacts and uncertainty from Qatar-related disruptions, modest near-term production lost to asset sales (~15k boe/d), investor skepticism about execution/timing of the long-term cash flow inflection, and the usual project timing risks. Overall, the positives substantially outweigh the manageable near-term negatives, while management presented a coherent plan to deliver on targets.Positive Updates
Strong Production & Record Permian
Total company production of 2.248 million boe/d in Q2 (above the high end of guidance); Permian achieved a new record of over 900k boe/d and Permian production was ~10% year-over-year on an underlying basis through the first half of FY26.
Negative Updates
Qatar Production Disruption & Uncertainty
Ras Laffan was largely shut in during Q2 with only limited volumes produced; Q3 guidance assumes a ramp through the quarter but management acknowledged meaningful uncertainty in the pace and throughput. Potential schedule impacts to NFE/NFS projects are expected in the order of months (not years), but uncertainty remains.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production & Record Permian
Total company production of 2.248 million boe/d in Q2 (above the high end of guidance); Permian achieved a new record of over 900k boe/d and Permian production was ~10% year-over-year on an underlying basis through the first half of FY26.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year guidance is unchanged and confirmed a target to return 45% of cash flow from operations to shareholders (averaged ~40% in H1, so H2 distributions to increase); Q3 production guidance is 2.290–2.320 million boe/d (Q2 production was 2.248 million boe/d, with Permian at a record >900k boe/d and ~15k boe/d removed for July non‑core sales); Q2 CFO was $7.2B, CapEx $3.0B, free cash flow $4.2B, and shareholder distributions were $3.0B (≈$2.0B buybacks + $1.0B dividends); the balance sheet held $8.1B cash & short‑term investments plus $1.2B liquid long‑term investments with leverage well below 1x; the company remains on track for LNG projects to start contributing in 2027, Willow first oil in early 2029, a $7B free‑cash‑flow inflection by 2029 (breakeven falling from mid‑$40s WTI today to the low‑$30s), completed its $5B disposition program ahead of schedule (including $1.7B of L48 sales in July), and added two 1 mtpa LNG offtakes to bring total commercial offtake to 12 mtpa.Conocophillips Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 62.42B | 58.71B | 54.61B | 56.05B | 78.58B | 46.06B |
| Gross Profit | 31.70B | 14.46B | 16.03B | 17.81B | 29.63B | 14.73B |
| EBITDA | 27.51B | 25.57B | 24.43B | 25.78B | 37.13B | 21.09B |
| Net Income | 9.28B | 7.99B | 9.22B | 10.92B | 18.62B | 8.08B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 124.26B | 121.94B | 122.78B | 95.92B | 93.83B | 90.66B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.69B | 6.98B | 6.11B | 6.61B | 9.24B | 6.59B |
| Total Debt | 23.29B | 23.44B | 25.35B | 19.63B | 17.19B | 19.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 58.91B | 57.45B | 57.98B | 46.65B | 45.83B | 45.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 65.35B | 64.49B | 64.80B | 49.28B | 48.00B | 45.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 20.94B | 16.77B | 8.01B | 8.72B | 18.16B | 11.67B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 26.22B | 19.80B | 20.12B | 19.96B | 28.31B | 17.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.16B | -8.84B | -11.15B | -12.00B | -8.74B | -8.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -12.02B | -10.10B | -8.84B | -8.66B | -18.05B | -6.33B |
Conocophillips Technical Analysis
Positive
120.26
Price Trends
113.44
Positive
118.08
Negative
107.58
Positive
Market Momentum
1.46
Positive
54.62
Neutral
41.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 120.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 116.50, above the 50-day MA of 113.44, and above the 200-day MA of 107.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COP.
Conocophillips Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $70.68B | 11.01 | 22.38% | 2.79% | 17.13% | 24.89% | |
76 Outperform | $368.60B | 18.62 | 10.98% | 3.58% | 12.71% | 34.53% | |
74 Outperform | $141.29B | 16.27 | 14.32% | 2.74% | 9.47% | 1.21% | |
72 Outperform | $47.28B | 10.72 | 14.78% | 2.31% | 18.28% | -5.35% | |
71 Outperform | $52.66B | 38.86 | 4.68% | 2.03% | 21.45% | -63.30% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $55.89B | 8.82 | 26.09% | 1.75% | -10.74% | 91.14% |
* Energy Sector Average
COP
Conocophillips
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32.50
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Conocophillips Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
ConocoPhillips Stockholders Back Board, Governance and Auditors
Positive
May 14, 2026
ConocoPhillips held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 12, 2026, with 1,218,853,041 shares outstanding and entitled to vote. All 13 nominated directors were elected to one-year terms, reinforcing continuity in the company’s board lead...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.