Conocophillips (COP) AI Stock Analysis

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Conocophillips

(NYSE:COP)

Rating:75Outperform

Price Target:

$105.00

▲(13.60% Upside)

ConocoPhillips demonstrates strong financial performance and operational efficiency, with a solid earnings call highlighting strategic successes. However, technical indicators suggest potential bearish momentum, and challenges in maintaining free cash flow growth and navigating a volatile oil market are noted.

Positive Factors

Production Exceeds Guidance

Exceeding production guidance indicates operational efficiency and strong asset performance, supporting long-term revenue growth and market position.

Successful Marathon Oil Integration

Successful integration of Marathon Oil assets enhances resource base and operational synergies, strengthening competitive advantage and cost efficiency.

Increased Asset Sales Target

Raising asset sales targets improves capital allocation and financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Deferred Tax and Working Capital Challenges

Working capital and tax complexities can strain cash flow management, potentially impacting liquidity and operational flexibility.

Choppy Oil Market Conditions

Volatile oil market conditions can affect revenue stability and pricing power, challenging long-term strategic planning and profitability.

Negative Free Cash Flow Growth

Declining free cash flow growth may limit investment capacity and shareholder returns, affecting long-term financial health.

Conocophillips (COP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$117.56B

Dividend Yield3.38%

Average Volume (3M)6.78M

Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7

Beta (1Y)0.62

Revenue Growth2.45%

EPS Growth-17.08%

CountryUS

Employees11,800

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength56

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.42

Shares Outstanding1,248,942,300

10 Day Avg. Volume6,259,371

30 Day Avg. Volume6,782,852

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.27

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.17

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.13

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$115.22

Price Target Upside24.66% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering18

Conocophillips Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. It primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of conventional and unconventional exploration prospects. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyConocoPhillips generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company operates on a revenue model that is heavily influenced by global commodity prices, which can fluctuate significantly. Key revenue streams include the sale of hydrocarbons produced from its upstream operations, as well as the transportation and processing of these products. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and collaborations with other energy firms, which can enhance its operational efficiency and market reach. Factors contributing to its earnings also include the effective management of production costs, technological advancements in extraction methods, and its ability to adapt to changing market dynamics within the energy sector.

Conocophillips Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Total Production

Total Production
Measures the overall volume of oil and gas produced, indicating the company’s capacity to meet market demand and its operational efficiency.

Chart InsightsConocoPhillips' total production has shown a significant upward trend, reaching 2.389 million barrels per day in Q1 2025, driven by strong contributions from the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken regions. Despite a challenging macro environment and higher cash tax rates, the company is focused on capital efficiency and cost reductions, maintaining robust production guidance. The successful integration of Marathon Oil and strategic cost management are enhancing resilience, while substantial returns to shareholders underscore confidence in their operational strategy.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Conocophillips Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 08, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call depicted a strong operational and financial performance, highlighted by exceeding production guidance, successful integration of Marathon Oil assets, increased asset sales targets, and significant cost reductions. However, challenges such as deferred tax complexities and a choppy oil market were noted.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Production Exceeds Guidance

ConocoPhillips produced 2,391,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 2025, exceeding the high end of their production guidance. Lower 48 production was 1,508,000 barrels per day, and Alaska and International production averaged 883,000 barrels per day.

Successful Marathon Oil Integration

The integration of Marathon Oil assets is complete, significantly outperforming the acquisition case. ConocoPhillips has identified an additional $1 billion of cost reduction and margin enhancement opportunities, on top of the $1 billion of expected Marathon synergies.

Increased Asset Sales Target

The company exceeded its $2 billion asset sales objective ahead of schedule and raised the total disposition target to $5 billion by the end of 2026.

Strong Financial Performance

In Q2 2025, ConocoPhillips reported adjusted earnings of $1.42 per share and $4.7 billion of cash flow from operations (CFO). The company returned $2.2 billion to shareholders, including $1.2 billion in buybacks and $1 billion in ordinary dividends.

Cost Reductions and Synergies

ConocoPhillips has identified over $2 billion in run rate improvements by the end of 2026, including $1 billion of Marathon synergies and $1 billion in additional cost reductions and margin enhancements.

Negative Updates

Deferred Tax and Working Capital Challenges

The company experienced a $1.5 billion working capital headwind in Q2 2025 and cited complexities in deferred taxes due to one-off discrete items and changes in the tax bill.

Choppy Oil Market Conditions

ConocoPhillips described the oil market as 'choppy' with more supply than demand in the short term, despite stable prices in the mid-60s.

Company Guidance

During the second quarter 2025 earnings call, ConocoPhillips provided comprehensive guidance on several key metrics. The company exceeded the high end of its production guidance, achieving 2,391,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with Lower 48 production alone averaging 1,508,000 barrels per day. They maintained the midpoint of their full-year production guidance despite the sale of Anadarko Basin assets for $1.3 billion, continuing their strategy of high-grading the asset portfolio. Capital expenditures were slightly down from the previous quarter at $3.3 billion. The company returned $2.2 billion to shareholders, including $1.2 billion in buybacks and $1 billion in dividends, consistent with their goal of distributing about 45% of full-year cash flow from operations (CFO) to shareholders. The asset integration of Marathon Oil was completed, yielding a 25% increase in low-cost supply resource estimates and doubling the initial resource estimate in the Permian. Additionally, ConocoPhillips increased its total asset disposition target to $5 billion, having already exceeded its $2 billion target ahead of schedule. They identified over $1 billion in cost reduction and margin enhancement opportunities, which, along with major projects and a favorable $70 WTI price environment, are expected to drive a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.

Conocophillips Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ConocoPhillips demonstrates robust financial health with strong revenue growth, healthy profit margins, and efficient cash flow management. The company maintains a strong equity position and moderate leverage, supporting its growth potential in the volatile Oil & Gas industry.

Income Statement

Very Positive

ConocoPhillips shows strong financial performance with a consistent revenue growth trend from $45.83B in 2021 to $58.53B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. The Gross Profit Margin is robust at 40.1% TTM, and the Net Profit Margin is impressive at 16.3% TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 36.6% and 43.6% respectively, indicating efficient operational management. Although there was a slight revenue decline in 2023, the overall trajectory remains positive.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.36 TTM, demonstrating moderate leverage. The Return on Equity stands at 14.6% TTM, indicating good profitability on shareholders' investments. The Equity Ratio is solid at 52.5% TTM, showing a stable capital structure. However, a consistent increase in total assets is slightly offset by increasing liabilities.

Cash Flow

Positive

ConocoPhillips exhibits strong cash flow generation with a Free Cash Flow of $12.05B TTM, a significant increase from $8.01B in 2024. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is 2.23 TTM, suggesting efficient cash utilization. However, there is a need to monitor capital expenditures, which have fluctuated significantly over the periods.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	57.67B	54.61B	56.14B	78.58B	46.06B	18.77B
Gross Profit	16.05B	16.03B	18.20B	29.63B	14.73B	-646.00M
EBITDA	25.58B	24.43B	25.78B	37.13B	21.09B	4.52B
Net Income	9.16B	9.22B	10.92B	18.62B	8.08B	-2.70B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	122.60B	122.78B	95.92B	93.83B	90.66B	62.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.34B	6.11B	6.61B	9.24B	6.59B	7.86B
Total Debt	23.53B	25.35B	19.63B	17.19B	19.93B	15.37B
Total Liabilities	57.03B	57.98B	46.65B	45.83B	45.26B	32.77B
Stockholders Equity	65.57B	64.80B	49.28B	48.00B	45.41B	29.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.92B	8.01B	8.72B	18.16B	11.67B	87.00M
Operating Cash Flow	19.82B	20.12B	19.96B	28.31B	17.00B	4.80B
Investing Cash Flow	-9.66B	-11.15B	-12.00B	-8.74B	-8.54B	-4.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-9.59B	-8.84B	-8.66B	-18.05B	-6.33B	-2.71B

Conocophillips Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price92.43

Price Trends

50DMA

94.15

Negative

100DMA

91.64

Positive

200DMA

94.19

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.26

Positive

RSI

43.59

Neutral

STOCH

34.12

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 92.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 95.29, below the 50-day MA of 94.15, and below the 200-day MA of 94.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COP.

Conocophillips Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DVN	77 Outperform	$22.40B	7.90	20.60%	3.28%	10.98%	-19.25%
FANG	77 Outperform	$40.07B	9.84	13.55%	2.85%	51.78%	-27.29%
CVX	76 Outperform	$324.00B	20.43	8.97%	4.30%	-5.02%	-23.13%
EOG	76 Outperform	$65.52B	11.67	19.63%	3.25%	-5.42%	-20.52%
COP	75 Outperform	$117.56B	12.65	15.88%	3.38%	2.45%	-17.08%
OXY	71 Outperform	$45.30B	27.21	6.98%	2.06%	-1.66%	-58.96%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.27B	7.68	4.09%	5.26%	3.87%	-62.32%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

COP

Conocophillips

92.43

-9.82

-9.60%

CVX

Chevron

157.11

21.19

15.59%

DVN

Devon Energy

34.77

-4.06

-10.46%

EOG

EOG Resources

118.16

0.28

0.24%

OXY

Occidental Petroleum

45.67

-4.58

-9.11%

FANG

Diamondback

136.88

-33.43

-19.63%

Conocophillips Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

ConocoPhillips Expands Board with New Appointment

Positive

Jul 1, 2025

On July 1, 2025, ConocoPhillips announced the appointment of Kathleen McGinty to its Board of Directors, expanding the board from 12 to 13 members. McGinty, who brings extensive experience in sustainability and leadership roles in both the private and public sectors, will serve on the Audit and Finance Committee and the Public Policy and Sustainability Committee. Her appointment is expected to enhance the board’s perspective on sustainability as ConocoPhillips continues to focus on its returns-focused value proposition.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 06, 2025