Conocophillips (COP) AI Stock Analysis

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Conocophillips

(NYSE:COP)

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Outperform 78 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:78Outperform

Price Target:

$103.00

▲(4.34% Upside)

ConocoPhillips' strong financial performance, particularly in cash flow and balance sheet stability, is the most significant factor driving the stock score. The positive earnings call, with increased production guidance and strategic updates, further supports the score. Valuation metrics are favorable, offering a reasonable P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield. Technical analysis presents a neutral outlook, slightly tempering the overall score.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Performance

Strong cash flow growth indicates robust liquidity and financial flexibility, allowing ConocoPhillips to invest in growth opportunities and return capital to shareholders.

Production Guidance Increase

Increasing production guidance reflects operational efficiency and strong market demand, supporting long-term revenue growth and market position.

Dividend Increase

An increased dividend demonstrates confidence in future cash flows and enhances shareholder value, making the stock more attractive to income-focused investors.

Negative Factors

Willow Project Cost Increase

Rising costs for the Willow project could strain financial resources and impact profitability, posing risks to future cash flow and project returns.

Concerns Over Project Cost Overruns

Potential cost overruns in major projects can lead to budgetary pressures and reduced margins, affecting long-term financial performance and strategic objectives.

Decreased EBIT Margin

A declining EBIT margin suggests pressure on operational efficiency, which could hinder profitability and limit the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.

Conocophillips (COP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$116.08B

Dividend Yield3.43%

Average Volume (3M)6.65M

Price to Earnings (P/E)14.0

Beta (1Y)0.62

Revenue Growth8.41%

EPS Growth-16.12%

CountryUS

Employees11,800

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength52

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.61

Shares Outstanding1,235,718,300

10 Day Avg. Volume5,766,496

30 Day Avg. Volume6,647,603

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.91

Price to Book (P/B)1.80

Price to Sales (P/S)2.14

P/FCF Ratio14.60

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.25

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.49

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.25

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$111.61

Price Target Upside13.06% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering18

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

Conocophillips Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. It primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of conventional and unconventional exploration prospects. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyConocoPhillips generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its revenue model is heavily reliant on the global prices of oil and natural gas, thereby making it sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices. The company also earns income from its midstream operations, which involve the transportation and processing of hydrocarbons. Additionally, ConocoPhillips engages in joint ventures and partnerships with other energy companies to enhance its resource development and operational efficiencies, further contributing to its revenue streams. The company strategically manages its portfolio of assets to optimize production and reduce costs, which is crucial for maintaining profitability in a competitive market.

Conocophillips Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Geography

Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.

Chart InsightsConocoPhillips' revenue from the Lower 48 region remains robust, driven by exceeding production guidance and strategic asset dispositions. Despite selling Anadarko Basin assets, the company maintains strong production levels, particularly in the Lower 48, contributing to stable revenue. The integration of Marathon Oil assets has bolstered synergies, enhancing cost efficiency and margin improvements. However, challenges such as working capital headwinds and oil market volatility could impact future revenue stability. The company’s strategic focus on cost reductions and asset sales aims to mitigate these risks and support long-term free cash flow growth.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Conocophillips Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Feb 05, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected a generally positive outlook with strong execution and strategic updates enhancing shareholder value. However, concerns over increased costs for the Willow project tempered the sentiment.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Execution and Production Guidance Increase

ConocoPhillips exceeded the top end of its production guidance, producing 2,399,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company raised its full-year production guidance to 2,375,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 15,000 from the previous guidance midpoint.

Dividend Increase and Capital Returns

The base dividend was raised by 8%, aligning with the goal of delivering top quartile dividend growth relative to the S&P 500. Year-to-date, the company has returned approximately 45% of its cash flow from operations to shareholders.

Reduction in LNG Project Capital

Total LNG project capital was reduced by $600 million. The projects in Qatar and Port Arthur are on track, with capital spending about 80% complete and the first startup expected next year.

Operational Cost Reduction

Operating cost guidance was reduced to $10.6 billion, down from the prior guidance midpoint of $10.8 billion, due to improved operational efficiencies and cost management.

Negative Updates

Increased Capital Estimate for Willow Project

The capital estimate for the Willow project in Alaska was increased to $8.5 billion to $9 billion, up from previous estimates, due to higher-than-expected inflation and localized North Slope cost escalation.

Concerns Over Project Cost Overruns

Despite maintaining the Willow project schedule, there are concerns over potential future cost overruns, reminiscent of historical major capital project challenges.

Company Guidance

During the third quarter 2025 earnings call, ConocoPhillips reported exceeding the top end of its production guidance with 2,399,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company raised its full-year production guidance to 2,375,000 barrels per day, reflecting a 15,000 increase from prior estimates. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $2.9 billion, while operating costs were reduced to $10.6 billion, down from the previous guidance of $10.8 billion. The company also announced an 8% increase in its base dividend, emphasizing sustainable growth. ConocoPhillips' Willow project in Alaska saw a revised capital estimate of $8.5 billion to $9 billion, primarily due to inflation, but maintained its schedule for first oil by early 2029. The company reduced total LNG project capital by $600 million, with significant progress on its Qatar and Port Arthur LNG projects. Looking ahead to 2026, ConocoPhillips anticipates a combined reduction of $1 billion in CapEx and OpEx, with production expected to remain flat or grow slightly. The company highlighted a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, driven by major projects and cost reduction efforts.

Conocophillips Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ConocoPhillips exhibits a strong financial position with robust cash flow generation and a stable balance sheet. The company has a solid gross profit margin of 36.79% and a net profit margin of 14.67%. However, the declining EBIT margin from 27.06% to 18.86% indicates some pressure on operating efficiency.

Income Statement

ConocoPhillips has shown a solid performance in the TTM period with a gross profit margin of 36.79% and a net profit margin of 14.67%. The revenue growth rate of 4.39% in the TTM indicates a positive trend compared to the previous year. However, the EBIT margin has decreased from 27.06% in 2024 to 18.86% in the TTM, suggesting some pressure on operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.36 in the TTM, indicating a stable leverage position. Return on equity is at 13.56%, reflecting decent profitability, though it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

ConocoPhillips has demonstrated strong cash flow management with a significant free cash flow growth of 140.04% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.66 indicates efficient cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.83 shows robust cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	60.20B	54.61B	56.14B	78.58B	46.06B	18.77B
Gross Profit	18.04B	16.03B	18.20B	29.63B	14.73B	-646.00M
EBITDA	25.75B	24.43B	25.78B	37.13B	21.09B	4.52B
Net Income	8.83B	9.22B	10.92B	18.62B	8.08B	-2.70B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	122.47B	122.78B	95.92B	93.83B	90.66B	62.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.26B	6.11B	6.61B	9.24B	6.59B	7.86B
Total Debt	23.48B	25.35B	19.63B	17.19B	19.93B	15.37B
Total Liabilities	57.55B	57.98B	46.65B	45.83B	45.26B	32.77B
Stockholders Equity	64.92B	64.80B	49.28B	48.00B	45.41B	29.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	16.62B	8.01B	8.72B	18.16B	11.67B	87.00M
Operating Cash Flow	19.93B	20.12B	19.96B	28.31B	17.00B	4.80B
Investing Cash Flow	-10.19B	-11.15B	-12.00B	-8.74B	-8.54B	-4.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-9.71B	-8.84B	-8.66B	-18.05B	-6.33B	-2.71B

Conocophillips Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price98.72

Price Trends

50DMA

91.23

Positive

100DMA

92.18

Positive

200DMA

91.57

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.48

Negative

RSI

60.26

Neutral

STOCH

47.75

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 98.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 94.43, above the 50-day MA of 91.23, and above the 200-day MA of 91.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COP.

Conocophillips Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FANG	81 Outperform	$40.24B	10.26	10.92%	2.70%	60.29%	-17.62%
DVN	79 Outperform	$21.62B	8.49	18.35%	2.64%	11.14%	-21.32%
COP	78 Outperform	$116.08B	13.96	15.37%	3.43%	8.41%	-16.12%
EOG	78 Outperform	$55.64B	10.51	18.48%	3.79%	-5.15%	-19.06%
CVX	71 Outperform	$312.50B	22.48	7.38%	4.54%	-3.44%	-22.05%
OXY	66 Neutral	$40.38B	31.46	5.82%	2.39%	-2.48%	-65.26%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

COP

Conocophillips

98.72

-0.71

-0.71%

CVX

Chevron

159.25

12.89

8.81%

DVN

Devon Energy

36.09

1.08

3.08%

EOG

EOG Resources

105.57

-21.45

-16.89%

OXY

Occidental Petroleum

43.23

-6.96

-13.87%

FANG

Diamondback

147.66

-22.28

-13.11%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 03, 2025