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Diamondback
(NASDAQ:FANG)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$206.00
â–²(14.27% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/16/26
The score is primarily supported by solid financial footing (strong operating cash flow and manageable leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook focused on cost reduction and disciplined capital returns. Offsetting this are sharply weaker recent profitability/returns and a very high P/E, while technical indicators point to weaker near-term momentum.
Positive Factors
Operating Cash Generation
Consistently robust operating cash flow (about $8.2B TTM) underpins durable funding for capex, dividends, buybacks and debt reduction without relying on equity issuances. This cash generation supports resilience through commodity cycles and enables strategic optionality over months to years.
Negative Factors
Profitability Compression
A sharp decline in net margins to ~2.7% signals weakened earnings power and conversion of revenue to profit. If margins remain depressed, returns on capital and free cash flow per dollar of revenue are impaired, limiting reinvestment and capital-return capacity over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating Cash Generation
Consistently robust operating cash flow (about $8.2B TTM) underpins durable funding for capex, dividends, buybacks and debt reduction without relying on equity issuances. This cash generation supports resilience through commodity cycles and enables strategic optionality over months to years.
Read all positive factors
Diamondback Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Production by Segment
Shows the output from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating operational focus and efficiency.
Shows the output from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating operational focus and efficiency.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDiamondback (FANG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$48.40B
Dividend Yield2.7%
Average Volume (3M)2.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)202.4
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth18.09%
EPS Growth-94.57%
CountryUS
Employees1,983
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.85
Shares Outstanding281,313,300
10 Day Avg. Volume2,986,867
30 Day Avg. Volume2,468,612
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)2.89
P/FCF Ratio8.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.34
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.37
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$231.00Price Target Upside28.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)20.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.33B
Diamondback Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Diamondback Energy, Inc. operates as an independent enterprise focused on oil and natural gas. Its core business involves the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of unconventional and onshore hydrocarbon reserves, predominantly l...
How the Company Makes Money
Diamondback primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from its operated and non-operated wells. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold to purchasers/marketers and delivered i...
Diamondback Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a constructive and proactive tone: Diamondback is pivoting to measured growth (adding rigs and a fifth frac crew) in response to a supportive macro environment while demonstrating operational execution (Q1 production beat, completion uplifts, and drilling cost improvements). The company is prioritizing capital efficiency and balance sheet repair—net debt targets brought forward, dividend increased, and a disciplined buyback posture—while acknowledging near-term risks from negative Waha differentials, market volatility, and potential service capacity constraints. Overall, the positives around production, cost improvement, cash generation, and balance-sheet optionality materially outweigh the operational and macro headwinds.Positive Updates
Move to Growth (Green-Light Framework)
Added 2–3 rigs and reinstated a fifth completion crew to accelerate production; net to Diamondback ~1.5 net rigs. Acceleration focused on Barnett development to capture high-return inventory and drive near-term oil growth.
Negative Updates
Deeply Negative Waha Pricing and Gas/NGL Headwinds
Waha differentials are deeply negative; negative ~$3 Waha effectively erodes NGL value and at -$4 to -$6 can begin to eat into oil economics. Company previously shut in ~2k–3k bbl/d during Waha disruption and expects similar magnitude risk if Waha remains weak.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Move to Growth (Green-Light Framework)
Added 2–3 rigs and reinstated a fifth completion crew to accelerate production; net to Diamondback ~1.5 net rigs. Acceleration focused on Barnett development to capture high-return inventory and drive near-term oil growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the call Diamondback reiterated a baseline oil production target of roughly 520,000+ bbl/d (Q1 was ~520k), said it will add 2–3 rigs (≈1.5 net rigs) and a fifth completion crew (five frac fleets running consistently), expects each crew to complete ~100 wells/year, and plans to draw DUCs from a Q1 peak just over ~200 then rebuild to a carry of a couple hundred DUCs; full‑year average lateral length is expected to be ~12.9k ft (Q1 ~11.5k ft) with ~6.2 million ft of lateral drilling implied (back‑half ~1.5–1.6M ft/quarter), drilling cost targets improved to ~$300/ft (from ~$360/ft) with Barnett drilling under ~$400/ft, the reinvestment rate fell from 44% to ~34% at current strip, pro forma net debt is ~$12.7B with a $10B net‑debt target sooner than the prior 12–18 month outlook, buybacks to date totaled 42M shares for ~$6B (~$148/share), and the company bumped the base dividend while keeping a fixed return framework and prioritizing debt paydown and capital efficiency.Diamondback Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.19B | 15.03B | 11.02B | 8.34B | 9.57B | 6.75B |
| Gross Profit | 6.36B | 5.28B | 4.97B | 4.80B | 6.70B | 4.27B |
| EBITDA | 5.42B | 7.16B | 7.64B | 6.17B | 7.23B | 4.37B |
| Net Income | 403.00M | 1.66B | 3.34B | 3.14B | 4.39B | 2.18B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 70.08B | 71.06B | 67.29B | 29.00B | 26.21B | 22.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 176.00M | 106.00M | 161.00M | 582.00M | 157.00M | 654.00M |
| Total Debt | 13.90B | 14.88B | 12.43B | 6.80B | 6.38B | 6.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.44B | 28.09B | 27.43B | 11.57B | 10.52B | 9.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 36.47B | 36.97B | 37.74B | 16.63B | 15.01B | 12.09B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.59B | 5.24B | -5.37B | 1.21B | 2.71B | 1.67B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.23B | 8.76B | 6.41B | 5.92B | 6.33B | 3.94B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.81B | -7.81B | -11.22B | -3.32B | -3.33B | -1.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.28B | -1.01B | 4.39B | -2.18B | -3.50B | -1.84B |
Diamondback Technical Analysis
Negative
180.27
Price Trends
194.35
Negative
187.90
Negative
167.25
Positive
Market Momentum
-5.77
Positive
30.91
Neutral
5.58
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FANG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 180.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 186.86, below the 50-day MA of 194.35, and above the 200-day MA of 167.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.58 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FANG.
Diamondback Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $69.66B | 12.80 | 18.28% | 3.79% | 0.31% | -5.71% | |
73 Outperform | $32.91B | 9.71 | 14.34% | 1.17% | 50.77% | 800.70% | |
71 Outperform | $46.68B | 11.21 | 14.78% | 2.64% | 1.96% | -18.06% | |
69 Neutral | $48.65B | 11.87 | 12.82% | 2.39% | -15.17% | -66.00% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $48.40B | 202.40 | 1.06% | 2.70% | 18.09% | -94.57% |
* Energy Sector Average
FANG
Diamondback
172.04
37.59
27.96%
DVN
Devon Energy
40.47
8.62
27.06%
EOG
EOG Resources
130.78
15.29
13.24%
EQT
EQT
52.61
-2.90
-5.22%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
48.91
6.44
15.16%
Diamondback Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Diamondback Expands and Extends Syndicated Credit Facility Commitments
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 12, 2026, Diamondback Energy and its subsidiary Diamondback EP LLC executed a seventeenth amendment to their long-standing syndicated credit agreement, extending the facility’s maturity by one year to June 12, 2031 and increasing tot...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Diamondback Energy Announces Leadership Transition and Board Backing
Positive
May 20, 2026
Diamondback Energy implemented a planned leadership transition on May 20, 2026, when longtime executive Travis D. Stice stepped down as Executive Chairman to become non-executive Chairman of the Board, aligning his compensation with that of other ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Diamondback Energy Announces Results of Senior Notes Tender
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 13, 2026, Diamondback Energy, Inc., the Permian Basin–focused independent oil and gas producer, reported final results of cash tender offers for any and all of its 4.400% senior notes due 2051 and 4.250% senior notes due 2052, follo...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Diamondback Energy Launches Tender Offers for Long-Term Notes
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Diamondback Energy, Inc. announced it had launched cash tender offers to purchase any and all of its outstanding 4.400% Senior Notes due 2051 and 4.250% Senior Notes due 2052, which together represent nearly $1 billion in aggrega...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.