Diamondback (FANG)
NASDAQ:FANG
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Diamondback
(NASDAQ:FANG)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$231.00
â–²(28.14% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/14/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial footing—especially the very conservative 2025 leverage profile and solid cash generation—supporting durability in a cyclical business. The latest earnings call adds upside from inventory expansion and improving operational efficiency, though execution and gas-mix risks remain. Technicals are constructive but not strongly bullish, and valuation is the main headwind given a relatively high P/E for an E&P company.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Diamondback’s exceptionally low leverage in 2025 (total debt near $0.8B; debt-to-equity ~0.02) provides durable financial flexibility. This conservative capital structure lowers refinancing risk, supports continued shareholder returns or opportunistic buybacks, and helps absorb oil‑cycle shocks over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated Barnett unit costs
Current Barnett unit costs (~$1,000/ft) materially exceed target and core Midland levels, pressuring capital efficiency. Failure to execute multi‑pad, simul‑frac and scale efficiencies to reach ~$800/ft would compress returns, prolong payback periods and could force reallocation of capital away from higher‑cost inventory.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Diamondback’s exceptionally low leverage in 2025 (total debt near $0.8B; debt-to-equity ~0.02) provides durable financial flexibility. This conservative capital structure lowers refinancing risk, supports continued shareholder returns or opportunistic buybacks, and helps absorb oil‑cycle shocks over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Diamondback (FANG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$57.76B
Dividend Yield2.7%
Average Volume (3M)3.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.1
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth35.79%
EPS Growth-64.28%
CountryUS
Employees1,983
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.74
Shares Outstanding281,311,740
10 Day Avg. Volume3,594,265
30 Day Avg. Volume3,726,720
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)2.89
P/FCF Ratio8.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.72
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$219.42Price Target Upside21.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering25
EPS Forecast (FY)17.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.56B
Diamondback Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, exploration, and exploitation of unconventional and onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas. It focuses ...
How the Company Makes Money
Diamondback primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs—from its operated and non-operated wells, largely in the Permian Basin. Revenue is recognized from product sales to purchasers (e.g., marketer...
Diamondback Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Production by Segment
Shows the output from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating operational focus and efficiency.
Shows the output from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating operational focus and efficiency.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDiamondback Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call skewed positive: management disclosed a meaningful organic resource expansion (Barnett) with strong early productivity metrics (substantial per-foot and EUR uplifts), material operational efficiency gains (continuous pumping, longer laterals) and promising early surfactant results that together point to upside in NAV and returns if costs and execution track targets. Key near-term risks include elevated Barnett unit costs today (with a clear roadmap to reduce them), increased gas exposure requiring marketing/realization solutions, modest OpEx headwinds, supply‑chain/tariff uncertainty, and noncash accounting-driven reserve/impairment impacts tied to lower commodity prices. Overall, the positives (resource, productivity, efficiency, pilot uplifts and inventory depth) noticeably outweigh the negatives, while the negatives are mostly execution, price- and accounting-related and are addressable over time.Positive Updates
Material Resource Expansion — Barnett Opportunity
Revealed a ~900 gross location Barnett position added organically to the portfolio; management allocated $150 million of the $3.75 billion 2026 budget to initial Barnett activity. Plan ramps: ~30 gross wells drilled in 2026 (with ~10 completions) and a significant step-up to ~100 gross wells in 2027.
Negative Updates
Barnett Unit Costs Currently Elevated
Barnett well costs are currently ~ $1,000/ft (target ~ $800/ft); materially higher than core Midland (~$510–$520/ft). Achieving the target cost reduction is required to make Barnett returns consistently competitive — execution and execution-led cost cuts remain a near-term challenge.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Material Resource Expansion — Barnett Opportunity
Revealed a ~900 gross location Barnett position added organically to the portfolio; management allocated $150 million of the $3.75 billion 2026 budget to initial Barnett activity. Plan ramps: ~30 gross wells drilled in 2026 (with ~10 completions) and a significant step-up to ~100 gross wells in 2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Diamondback guided a $3.75 billion 2026 capital plan (with ~$150 million initially allocated to the newly disclosed Barnett program), saying Barnett adds ~900 gross locations and will see roughly 30 gross wells drilled (≈10 turned to sales) in 2026, ramping to ~100 gross wells in 2027; Barnett delineation currently runs near $1,000/ft with a target to get to ~$800/ft (versus core Midland development at roughly $510–$520/ft), and Barnett productivity looks materially higher (≈36 MBOE per 1,000 ft 12‑month cum vs ~22 for core, ~75 BO/ft EUR vs ~50 BO/ft for core, ~67% oil mix over 12 months and initial GORs ~3,000), the company expects nearly two decades of inventory at 2026 activity levels, average lateral lengths rose ~600 ft y/y, completion efficiency is improving (continuous‑pumping fleets averaging ~4,500 ft/day with peaks >5,500), drills averaged >8 days spud‑to‑TD with some sub‑6‑day wells, surfactant pilots (60 treatments at ≈$0.5M each) have shown ~100 bbl/d average pops (some multi‑hundreds), LOE and GP&T guidance model a small uptick (power costs may add ~$0.10–$0.20/boe), PDP/PUD mix is ~70%/30%, and reserve/impairment movements were largely price‑driven (analysts noted ~130 MMbbl of price‑related revisions).Diamondback Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 15.03B | 11.02B | 8.34B | 9.57B | 6.75B |
| Gross Profit | 5.28B | 4.97B | 4.80B | 6.70B | 4.27B |
| EBITDA | 7.16B | 7.64B | 6.17B | 7.23B | 4.37B |
| Net Income | 1.66B | 3.34B | 3.14B | 4.39B | 2.18B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 71.06B | 67.29B | 29.00B | 26.21B | 22.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 106.00M | 161.00M | 582.00M | 157.00M | 654.00M |
| Total Debt | 14.49B | 12.43B | 6.80B | 6.38B | 6.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.09B | 27.43B | 11.57B | 10.52B | 9.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 36.97B | 37.74B | 16.63B | 15.01B | 12.09B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.24B | -5.37B | 1.21B | 2.71B | 1.67B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.76B | 6.41B | 5.92B | 6.33B | 3.94B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.81B | -11.22B | -3.32B | -3.33B | -1.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.01B | 4.39B | -2.18B | -3.50B | -1.84B |
Diamondback Technical Analysis
Negative
180.27
Price Trends
181.57
Negative
166.78
Positive
153.84
Positive
Market Momentum
0.59
Positive
40.28
Neutral
40.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FANG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 180.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 192.08, below the 50-day MA of 181.57, and above the 200-day MA of 153.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FANG.
Diamondback Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $74.53B | 11.37 | 16.76% | 3.79% | -3.59% | -18.88% | |
77 Outperform | $27.09B | 11.67 | 11.77% | 3.39% | 33.57% | 49.45% | |
75 Outperform | $57.76B | 26.12 | 4.34% | 2.70% | 35.79% | -64.28% | |
74 Outperform | $31.72B | 10.12 | 17.47% | 2.64% | 7.46% | -8.75% | |
73 Outperform | $36.97B | 6.40 | 14.34% | 1.17% | 50.77% | 800.70% | |
73 Outperform | $60.26B | 16.93 | 6.43% | 2.39% | -8.04% | -36.48% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
FANG
Diamondback
205.63
74.38
56.67%
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EQT
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OXY
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53.05%
Diamondback Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Diamondback Energy Announces Results of Senior Notes Tender
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 13, 2026, Diamondback Energy, Inc., the Permian Basin–focused independent oil and gas producer, reported final results of cash tender offers for any and all of its 4.400% senior notes due 2051 and 4.250% senior notes due 2052, follo...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Diamondback Energy Launches Tender Offers for Long-Term Notes
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Diamondback Energy, Inc. announced it had launched cash tender offers to purchase any and all of its outstanding 4.400% Senior Notes due 2051 and 4.250% Senior Notes due 2052, which together represent nearly $1 billion in aggrega...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Diamondback completes sizable secondary stock offering by holder
Neutral
Mar 12, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Diamondback Energy, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with SGF FANG Holdings, LP and a syndicate led by Evercore Group L.L.C., Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC for a secondary public offerin...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.