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Occidental Petroleum
(NYSE:OXY)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$64.00
â–²(18.98% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial strength and strong earnings-call execution signals (deleveraging progress, cost savings, and better free cash flow), reinforced by very attractive valuation (low P/E). These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and ongoing sensitivity to commodity pricing and near-term operational disruptions.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Sustained, material free cash flow improvement provides durable funding for debt reduction, capital spending and optional shareholder returns. Higher cash conversion improves financial flexibility versus peers and supports multi-year deleveraging even if commodity cycles fluctuate.
Negative Factors
Revenue & FCF trending down; commodity sensitivity
Revenue and free cash flow declines versus prior periods signal exposure to weaker pricing or volumes; because earnings are tied to commodity markets, cyclical swings can materially compress cash generation and reinvestment capacity over a multi-month to multi-year horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Sustained, material free cash flow improvement provides durable funding for debt reduction, capital spending and optional shareholder returns. Higher cash conversion improves financial flexibility versus peers and supports multi-year deleveraging even if commodity cycles fluctuate.
Read all positive factors
Occidental Petroleum Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Provides a breakdown of operating income across different business segments, revealing which areas are most profitable and where the company might focus its strategic efforts.
Provides a breakdown of operating income across different business segments, revealing which areas are most profitable and where the company might focus its strategic efforts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOccidental Petroleum (OXY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$47.68B
Dividend Yield2.39%
Average Volume (3M)10.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)0.15
Revenue Growth-15.17%
EPS Growth-66.00%
CountryUS
Employees10,412
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.12
Shares Outstanding994,634,700
10 Day Avg. Volume10,193,430
30 Day Avg. Volume10,582,041
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.70
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)1.86
P/FCF Ratio9.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$63.82Price Target Upside18.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)5.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$25.87B
Occidental Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Market...
How the Company Makes Money
Occidental primarily makes money by producing and selling oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Revenue in this upstream business is largely driven by production volumes and realized commodity prices, so earnings tend to rise and fall ...
Occidental Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, significant free cash flow improvement (+52% YoY), meaningful deleveraging (principal debt down to $13.3B with a $10B target), sustained cost savings ($2B since 2023 plus $500M targeted in 2026), midstream outperformance and higher guidance, and continued top-tier well performance and reserve growth. Offsetting risks include temporary Middle East-related production and logistics disruptions, modest near-term reductions in EOR volumes from portfolio optimization, a Stratos commissioning non-process issue under evaluation, and working capital timing items. Overall, the positives—robust cash generation, balance-sheet repair, cost efficiencies, and production outperformance—substantially outweigh the transitory operational and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Production Beat and Strong Operational Execution
Reported production of ~1.43 million BOE/day in Q1 2026 (1.426 MM BOE/day cited), exceeding the high end of guidance and beating the midpoint by ~21k BOE/day; domestic outperformance exceeded the midpoint by ~33k BOE/day driven by strong new well performance and uptime.
Negative Updates
Middle East Disruptions Impacting International Volumes
Modest operational constraints in the Middle East (Alosan) began mid‑March, causing lower international production and PSC impacts due to higher oil prices; company expects normalization before the end of Q2 but has adjusted the midpoint of full‑year production guidance to 1.44 million BOE/day.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Beat and Strong Operational Execution
Reported production of ~1.43 million BOE/day in Q1 2026 (1.426 MM BOE/day cited), exceeding the high end of guidance and beating the midpoint by ~21k BOE/day; domestic outperformance exceeded the midpoint by ~33k BOE/day driven by strong new well performance and uptime.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Occidental reiterated 2026 capital guidance of $5.5–$5.9 billion (Q2 weighted higher) while adjusting the midpoint of full‑year production guidance to 1.44 million BOE/d after Q1 production of ~1.426–1.43 million BOE/d (a ~21k/d beat vs midpoint and ~33k/d domestic beat and exceeding the high end of guidance); Q1 adjusted EPS was $1.06 (reported EPS $3.13), Q1 free cash flow before working capital was ~$1.7 billion with >$3.8 billion unrestricted cash and continuing‑ops free cash flow ~52% higher vs 2025; domestic LOE came in at $7.85/BOE (≈5% better than Q1 guidance); the company targets >$1.2 billion incremental free cash flow vs 2025 for 2026, has delivered $2.0 billion of annual cost savings since 2023 and is on track for ~$500 million more in 2026 plus ~7% new‑well cost improvement, has reduced principal debt to $13.3 billion (down $7.5 billion since December) with a near‑term priority of $10 billion and a go‑forward interest run‑rate of ~$845 million/year (≈$550 million lower than 2025), raised Midstream midpoint to $1.1 billion (≈$800 million increase), hedged 100k bbl/d Mar–Dec 2026 with a $55 WTI floor and ~$76 weighted ceiling, noted EOR at ~100k bbl/d and a goal to cut base decline below 20% by decade end, and said Stratos Phase 2 is complete while a Phase 1 non‑process issue is under review but not expected to change the 2026 capital range.Occidental Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 23.18B | 21.59B | 27.10B | 28.33B | 36.25B | 25.96B |
| Gross Profit | 6.08B | 7.29B | 9.65B | 9.74B | 17.05B | 7.60B |
| EBITDA | 11.47B | 11.67B | 12.72B | 14.54B | 22.16B | 13.89B |
| Net Income | 4.71B | 2.37B | 3.04B | 4.67B | 13.22B | 2.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 80.46B | 86.78B | 85.44B | 74.01B | 72.61B | 75.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.81B | 1.99B | 2.13B | 1.43B | 984.00M | 2.76B |
| Total Debt | 15.67B | 23.96B | 27.10B | 20.91B | 20.77B | 30.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 40.90B | 50.19B | 50.97B | 43.66B | 42.52B | 54.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 38.93B | 36.03B | 34.16B | 30.25B | 30.09B | 20.33B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.57B | 4.11B | 4.42B | 6.06B | 12.46B | 7.56B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.66B | 10.53B | 11.44B | 12.31B | 16.81B | 10.43B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.78B | -5.80B | -14.59B | -6.98B | -4.87B | -1.25B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.24B | -4.84B | 3.84B | -4.89B | -13.71B | -8.57B |
Occidental Petroleum Technical Analysis
Negative
53.79
Price Trends
55.95
Negative
55.63
Negative
48.94
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.24
Positive
25.74
Positive
1.56
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OXY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 53.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.61, below the 50-day MA of 55.95, and above the 200-day MA of 48.94, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.74 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.56 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OXY.
Occidental Petroleum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $68.49B | 12.58 | 18.28% | 3.79% | 0.31% | -5.71% | |
73 Outperform | $37.19B | 13.35 | 7.67% | 6.85% | -7.02% | -23.68% | |
71 Outperform | $46.42B | 11.15 | 14.78% | 2.64% | 1.96% | -18.06% | |
69 Neutral | $47.68B | 11.63 | 12.82% | 2.39% | -15.17% | -66.00% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $48.37B | 202.31 | 1.06% | 2.70% | 18.09% | -94.57% |
* Energy Sector Average
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
47.94
4.90
11.39%
DVN
Devon Energy
40.25
7.69
23.60%
EOG
EOG Resources
128.59
9.94
8.38%
WDS
Woodside Energy Group
19.33
4.36
29.11%
FANG
Diamondback
171.96
33.56
24.25%
Occidental Petroleum Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Occidental Petroleum Announces CEO Transition and Leadership Changes
Positive
May 4, 2026
Occidental announced that longtime President and CEO Vicki Hollub informed the board on April 30, 2026 that she will retire effective June 1, 2026, with her departure treated as an eligible retirement under the company’s policy and accompani...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Occidental Petroleum Expands Debt Tender Offer and Amendments
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Occidental announced early results of cash tender offers for multiple series of senior notes and debentures, alongside related consent solicitations to amend certain indenture terms. The company increased the maximum aggregate pr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.