Occidental Petroleum (OXY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $46.41B
• Dividend Yield: 2.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: -2.48%
• EPS Growth: -65.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,323
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 985,210,450
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,489,552
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,260,408
• PEG Ratio: -0.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.86
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.05
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.09
• 1Y Price Target: $49.50
• Price Target Upside: -4.51% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $57.00 ▲(9.95% Upside)

Score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (profitability, strong operating cash flow, and improved leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook focused on structural savings, free-cash-flow improvement, and continued deleveraging. The rating is held back by stretched valuation (high P/E with modest yield) and technical overbought signals that raise near-term downside risk despite an overall uptrend.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Generation

Consistent, sizable free cash flow (noted $4.3B in 2025) underpins durable financial flexibility: funds reinvestment, debt reduction, dividend increases and opportunistic buybacks. Strong operating cash flow across 2021–2025 supports ongoing capital priorities even in cyclical markets.

Balance Sheet Deleveraging

Material debt paydown and targeted tender offer show sustained deleveraging. Lower principal debt reduces interest burden and increases resilience to commodity downturns, improving financial optionality for multiyear capital allocation and facilitating further reductions toward longer-term targets.

Large, Low‑Cost Resource Base

A sizable resource base with high reserves replacement and low breakeven economics supports long‑term production durability. Low finding & development costs and significant midcycle inventory permit prioritized high‑return development and margin resilience across commodity cycles.

Negative Factors

Revenue Down‑Cycle & Volatility

Revenues have trended down recently, reflecting cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices. Persistent revenue volatility can compress margins, complicate capital planning and slow deleveraging during prolonged price weakness, making cash flow and earnings less predictable over months to years.

Substantial Remaining Debt

Although debt has fallen materially, absolute leverage remains large and management has no firm timetable to reach longer‑term targets. Elevated principal balance keeps interest costs and refinancing risk relevant, limiting flexibility for aggressive buybacks or large growth spending if commodity markets weaken.

Project & Midstream Execution Risk

Key structural initiatives (STRATOS, midstream normalization) are multi‑year undertakings with residual capex and timing risk. Delays or underperformance would mute projected levelized EBITDA and savings, restraining anticipated free cash flow and prolonging recovery of normalized midstream contribution.

Occidental Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. It operates through three segments: Oil and Gas, Chemical, and Midstream and Marketing. The company's Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. Its Chemical segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals, including chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates, and calcium chloride; vinyls comprising vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride, and ethylene. The Midstream and Marketing segment gathers, processes, transports, stores, purchases, and markets oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. This segment also trades around its assets consisting of transportation and storage capacity; and invests in entities. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Occidental Petroleum generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company's revenue model relies heavily on the market prices of these commodities, which can be volatile. Key revenue streams include the sale of oil and gas from its wells, as well as revenues from its chemical manufacturing operations, which produce products such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and other petrochemicals. Additionally, Occidental has established strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational efficiency and expand its reach in various markets. Factors contributing to its earnings include the company's ability to manage production costs, its investment in technology to enhance recovery rates, and its focus on sustainable practices that align with evolving market demands.

Occidental Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong post-2020 recovery with sustained profitability, solid operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, plus a materially improved leverage position. Offsetting factors include cooling results from the 2022 peak, declining revenue in 2023–2025, and uneven free-cash-flow growth typical of a cyclical commodity business.

Income Statement

Profitability has rebounded strongly since 2020’s deep loss, with solid earnings and high cash earnings margins in 2021–2025. However, results have clearly cooled from the 2022 peak: revenue declined in 2023 and 2024 and fell sharply again in 2025, alongside lower net profit margin versus 2022. Overall, the company remains profitable with good margin structure, but the recent revenue down-cycle and volatility typical of the sector temper the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved materially versus 2020–2021, with debt relative to equity dropping to a low level in 2025 and returns on equity staying positive in recent years. That said, the capital structure was meaningfully more leveraged in prior periods (notably 2020–2021), highlighting sensitivity to commodity downturns. Balance sheet quality looks stronger today, but historical cyclicality and prior high leverage keep this from scoring higher.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently positive, with strong operating cash flow across 2021–2025 and positive free cash flow each year shown. Cash flow coverage of earnings is generally healthy (operating cash flow exceeds net income in most years), though free cash flow is a more modest share of net income, suggesting meaningful reinvestment and/or working-capital and capital-spending demands. Free cash flow growth has been uneven, reflecting a more volatile cash profile as industry conditions normalized from 2022.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.59B	27.10B	28.33B	36.25B	25.96B
Gross Profit	7.29B	9.65B	9.74B	17.05B	7.60B
EBITDA	11.36B	12.72B	14.54B	22.16B	13.89B
Net Income	2.37B	3.04B	4.67B	13.22B	2.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	84.19B	85.44B	74.01B	72.61B	75.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.97B	2.13B	1.43B	984.00M	2.76B
Total Debt	1.77B	27.10B	20.91B	20.77B	30.39B
Total Liabilities	47.59B	50.97B	43.66B	42.52B	54.71B
Stockholders Equity	36.03B	34.16B	30.25B	30.09B	20.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.11B	4.42B	6.06B	12.46B	7.56B
Operating Cash Flow	10.53B	11.44B	12.31B	16.81B	10.43B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.80B	-14.59B	-6.98B	-4.87B	-1.25B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.84B	3.84B	-4.89B	-13.71B	-8.57B

Occidental Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 51.84
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OXY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.18, above the 50-day MA of 43.37, and above the 200-day MA of 43.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.53 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OXY.

Occidental Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FANG	81 Outperform	$49.86B	12.10	10.92%	2.70%	60.29%	-17.62%
EOG	78 Outperform	$66.34B	12.17	18.48%	3.79%	-5.15%	-19.06%
DVN	77 Outperform	$27.36B	10.65	17.60%	2.64%	11.14%	-21.32%
WDS	74 Outperform	$34.63B	12.04	8.33%	6.85%	15.31%	58.83%
CTRA	74 Outperform	$23.87B	14.52	11.86%	3.39%	26.13%	31.42%
OXY	72 Outperform	$46.41B	29.26	6.86%	2.39%	-2.48%	-65.26%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Occidental Petroleum Corporate Events

Occidental Petroleum Launches Debt Tender Offers, Seeks Consents

On February 19, 2026, Occidental Petroleum launched cash tender offers to repurchase up to $700 million in aggregate principal amount of several series of its outstanding senior notes and debentures, including a $58 million sub-cap for its zero coupon notes due 2036, with an expiration date of March 19, 2026. The offers feature an early tender deadline of March 4, 2026, early tender premiums, and settlement dates shortly after each deadline, with funding to come from cash on hand, including proceeds from the January 2, 2026 sale of Occidental Chemical Corporation and its subsidiaries.

In conjunction with the tender offers, Occidental is soliciting consents from holders of most of the targeted notes to approve amendments that would remove certain covenants from the governing indentures, contingent on achieving requisite consent levels. The transaction is designed to reduce and reshape Occidental’s debt profile while loosening some bond covenant restrictions, signaling continued balance sheet management following the divestiture of its chemical business and potentially improving financial flexibility for the company and its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OXY) stock is a Buy with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Occidental Petroleum stock, see the OXY Stock Forecast page.

Occidental Petroleum Completes Sale of OxyChem to Berkshire

On January 2, 2026, Occidental completed the $9.7 billion all-cash sale of its chemical business, OxyChem, to Berkshire Hathaway, finalizing a divestiture first agreed in October 2025. The transaction is intended to accelerate Occidental’s strategy to strengthen its balance sheet and sharpen its focus on its higher-return oil and gas portfolio, while the company retains OxyChem’s legacy tort claims and certain environmental liabilities in a separate subsidiary that will continue funding and managing long-term remediation activities, a structure that preserves the operational value of the assets for the buyer while keeping historical risk obligations with Occidental.

The most recent analyst rating on (OXY) stock is a Hold with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Occidental Petroleum stock, see the OXY Stock Forecast page.