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Occidental Petroleum
(NYSE:OXY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$58.00
â–²(1.22% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong current profitability and positive free cash flow, but capped by cyclicality, weaker TTM cash conversion, and limited visibility from missing TTM leverage inputs). The earnings call adds support via strong free cash flow, deleveraging progress, and improved guidance, while technicals remain a modest headwind with the stock below key short-to-intermediate moving averages. Valuation is a secondary positive with a moderate P/E and a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Q2's ~$3.0B free cash flow and a stated plan to add >$4.0B of sustainable annual cash flow by 2030 materially strengthen long-term liquidity. Durable free cash generation underpins debt paydown, dividend support, and reinvestment, raising financial flexibility even across commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Cash‑conversion weakness
Despite solid operating cash, FCF lagging net income indicates working capital, capex timing or other noncash items limiting actual cash available from reported earnings. Persistent weak cash conversion reduces reliability of earnings for dividends, buybacks, and accelerates reliance on balance‑sheet fixes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Q2's ~$3.0B free cash flow and a stated plan to add >$4.0B of sustainable annual cash flow by 2030 materially strengthen long-term liquidity. Durable free cash generation underpins debt paydown, dividend support, and reinvestment, raising financial flexibility even across commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Occidental Petroleum Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Provides a breakdown of operating income across different business segments, revealing which areas are most profitable and where the company might focus its strategic efforts.
Provides a breakdown of operating income across different business segments, revealing which areas are most profitable and where the company might focus its strategic efforts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOccidental Petroleum (OXY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$59.04B
Dividend Yield1.71%
Average Volume (3M)9.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8
Beta (1Y)0.11
Revenue Growth-10.74%
EPS Growth91.14%
CountryUS
Employees10,412
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.65
Shares Outstanding999,637,400
10 Day Avg. Volume8,730,269
30 Day Avg. Volume9,270,680
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.70
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)1.86
P/FCF Ratio9.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$65.93Price Target Upside15.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)5.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$25.79B
Occidental Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Market...
How the Company Makes Money
Occidental makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons and related products, supplemented by chemicals manufacturing and midstream/marketing services.
1) Oil and gas sales (largest driver): OXY earns revenue by extracting crude oi...
Occidental Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: strong Q2 free cash flow ($3.0B), meaningful debt reduction, an 8% dividend increase, production outperformance, and a detailed plan to achieve ~$4.0B of sustainable annual cash flow by 2030. Near-term headwinds include Middle East disruptions, Q3 midstream normalization as gas spreads narrow, temporary maintenance/seasonal impacts in the Gulf of America and Rockies, and Stratos commissioning timing risks. Management emphasized disciplined capital allocation (debt paydown prioritized over buybacks) and substantial structural cost and decline‑rate improvements, with ~85% of planned cash flow gains expected to be resilient to lower prices. Overall, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, with lowlights framed as manageable or timing-related risks rather than structural declines.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Free Cash Flow
Generated approximately $3.0 billion of free cash flow in Q2 — the highest quarterly free cash flow since Q3 2022; company expects to deliver more than the targeted $1.2 billion of free cash flow improvement for 2026 relative to 2025.
Negative Updates
International Volatility and Middle East Disruptions
Lower international volumes in Q2 due to disruptions in the Middle East; Al Hosn sulfur sales and realizations were partially offset by higher sulfur prices but remain subject to regional volatility and potential sales delays.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Free Cash Flow
Generated approximately $3.0 billion of free cash flow in Q2 — the highest quarterly free cash flow since Q3 2022; company expects to deliver more than the targeted $1.2 billion of free cash flow improvement for 2026 relative to 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Occidental’s near‑term guidance calls for third‑quarter production of 1.40–1.44 million BOE/d (Q2 was 1.43 MM BOE/d, +23k vs midpoint) and a raised full‑year production outlook, with domestic LOE guided at $8.75/BOE for Q3 and $8.10/BOE for the full year; midstream & marketing Q3 income is expected to decline as the Waha–Gulf Coast spread narrows (largely offset by stronger upstream gas realizations), but full‑year midstream guidance was increased by $300 million after a Q2 segment result of ~ $960 million. CapEx remains $5.5–$5.9 billion for 2026 (2027 starting point $5.9B; sustaining CapEx ~ $5.0–$5.1B in 2027) with a 2030 sustaining‑CapEx target of $4.5B; Q2 free cash flow before working capital was ~ $3.0 billion, unrestricted cash ~$4.2 billion, and the company expects to exceed its >$1.2B 2026 cash‑flow improvement target and to add >$4.0 billion of annual sustainable cash flow by 2030 (≈95% growth vs 2025), ~85% of which is expected at lower prices. Balance‑sheet milestones include reducing principal debt to $11.8B (current) toward a $10B target, net principal debt of ~$7.6B, limited near‑term maturities ($414M due through 2029), and material interest savings (current go‑forward interest ~ $760M, roughly $630M lower than 2025; expected ~$650M once principal is $10B, implying ~$740M total interest savings vs 2025, with ~$400M recognized in 2026 and ~$340M in 2027); the preferred redemption (~$700M) in Aug‑2029 is also a key cash‑flow consideration.Occidental Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.19B | 21.59B | 27.10B | 28.33B | 36.25B | 25.96B |
| Gross Profit | 10.92B | 7.29B | 9.65B | 9.74B | 17.05B | 7.60B |
| EBITDA | 13.99B | 11.67B | 12.72B | 14.54B | 22.16B | 13.89B |
| Net Income | 7.25B | 2.37B | 3.04B | 4.67B | 13.22B | 2.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 80.36B | 86.78B | 85.44B | 74.01B | 72.61B | 75.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.15B | 1.99B | 2.13B | 1.43B | 984.00M | 2.76B |
| Total Debt | 14.63B | 23.96B | 27.10B | 20.91B | 20.77B | 30.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 37.98B | 50.19B | 50.97B | 43.66B | 42.52B | 54.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 41.75B | 36.03B | 34.16B | 30.25B | 30.09B | 20.33B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.31B | 4.11B | 4.42B | 6.06B | 12.46B | 7.56B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.98B | 10.53B | 11.44B | 12.31B | 16.81B | 10.43B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.00B | -5.80B | -14.59B | -6.98B | -4.87B | -1.25B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -12.14B | -4.84B | 3.84B | -4.89B | -13.71B | -8.57B |
Occidental Petroleum Technical Analysis
Positive
57.30
Price Trends
54.51
Positive
56.53
Positive
50.52
Positive
Market Momentum
1.00
Negative
60.43
Neutral
91.03
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OXY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 57.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.15, above the 50-day MA of 54.51, and above the 200-day MA of 50.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OXY.
Occidental Petroleum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $75.22B | 11.08 | 22.38% | 2.79% | 17.13% | 24.89% | |
72 Outperform | $49.94B | 10.61 | 14.90% | 2.31% | 18.28% | -5.35% | |
71 Outperform | $44.24B | 15.93 | 7.67% | 4.96% | -7.02% | -23.68% | |
71 Outperform | $56.48B | 39.23 | 4.22% | 2.03% | 21.45% | -63.30% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $59.04B | 8.80 | 26.09% | 1.75% | -10.74% | 91.14% |
* Energy Sector Average
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
58.55
14.71
33.54%
DVN
Devon Energy
44.86
12.09
36.90%
EOG
EOG Resources
143.14
27.68
23.98%
WDS
Woodside Energy Group
22.96
6.24
37.31%
FANG
Diamondback
200.84
64.38
47.18%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.