Occidental Petroleum (OXY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $57.09B
• Dividend Yield: 2.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 16.52M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: -2.48%
• EPS Growth: -65.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,323
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 986,266,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 25,368,644
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,515,020
• PEG Ratio: -0.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.86
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.15
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.30
• 1Y Price Target: $54.38
• Price Target Upside: -6.06% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $21.42B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $61.00 ▲(5.39% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/10/26

The score is driven primarily by solid, improving financial performance (profitability, cash generation, and better leverage) and a favorable earnings outlook centered on structural cost/interest savings, disciplined capex, and continued deleveraging. Technicals support the uptrend, but momentum is somewhat overextended, and valuation is only moderately attractive with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Consistent Free Cash Flow

Sustained, multi‑year free cash generation underpins durable financial flexibility: it funds capex, debt paydown, a growing dividend, and opportunistic buybacks, reducing reliance on external financing and supporting long‑term capital allocation even through commodity cycles.

Material Deleveraging and Balance Sheet Repair

Meaningful, ongoing debt reduction has materially improved leverage versus 2020–21, lowering interest exposure and increasing optionality for reinvestment or shareholder returns. A stronger capital structure increases resilience to downturns and supports strategic investments.

Large, Low‑Cost Resource Base & Reserve Replacement

High reserve replacement and a vast, low‑breakeven resource base provide a durable competitive advantage: consistent production potential, lower marginal development cost, and the ability to sustain margins and cash generation across commodity cycles.

Negative Factors

Revenue Declines and Commodity Sensitivity

Occidental's top‑line remains exposed to volatile commodity prices and cyclicality; multi‑year revenue declines and uneven free cash flow growth limit predictability of earnings and complicate long‑term planning for capex, dividends, and debt reduction.

Substantial Remaining Debt; No Firm Timeline to Target

While leverage has improved, a still‑large debt load with an undefined timetable to the $10B target constrains strategic flexibility, keeps interest expense and refinancing risk elevated, and ties up cash that might otherwise go to growth or returns.

Execution Risk from STRATOS Ramp and Midstream Normalization

Multi‑year project ramp and midstream normalization create execution and timing risk: delays or underperformance could postpone anticipated savings and EBITDA contributions, pressuring long‑term cash flow and slowing deleveraging or returns.

Occidental Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. It operates through three segments: Oil and Gas, Chemical, and Midstream and Marketing. The company's Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. Its Chemical segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals, including chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates, and calcium chloride; vinyls comprising vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride, and ethylene. The Midstream and Marketing segment gathers, processes, transports, stores, purchases, and markets oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. This segment also trades around its assets consisting of transportation and storage capacity; and invests in entities. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Occidental Petroleum generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company's revenue model relies heavily on the market prices of these commodities, which can be volatile. Key revenue streams include the sale of oil and gas from its wells, as well as revenues from its chemical manufacturing operations, which produce products such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and other petrochemicals. Additionally, Occidental has established strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational efficiency and expand its reach in various markets. Factors contributing to its earnings include the company's ability to manage production costs, its investment in technology to enhance recovery rates, and its focus on sustainable practices that align with evolving market demands.

Occidental Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are solid and improved post-2020: profitability remains positive with good margins, operating cash flow is strong with consistently positive free cash flow, and leverage has materially improved. Offsetting this strength, results have cooled from the 2022 peak with declining revenue and uneven free cash flow growth, reflecting commodity-driven cyclicality.

Income Statement

Profitability has rebounded strongly since 2020’s deep loss, with solid earnings and high cash earnings margins in 2021–2025. However, results have clearly cooled from the 2022 peak: revenue declined in 2023 and 2024 and fell sharply again in 2025, alongside lower net profit margin versus 2022. Overall, the company remains profitable with good margin structure, but the recent revenue down-cycle and volatility typical of the sector temper the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved materially versus 2020–2021, with debt relative to equity dropping to a low level in 2025 and returns on equity staying positive in recent years. That said, the capital structure was meaningfully more leveraged in prior periods (notably 2020–2021), highlighting sensitivity to commodity downturns. Balance sheet quality looks stronger today, but historical cyclicality and prior high leverage keep this from scoring higher.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently positive, with strong operating cash flow across 2021–2025 and positive free cash flow each year shown. Cash flow coverage of earnings is generally healthy (operating cash flow exceeds net income in most years), though free cash flow is a more modest share of net income, suggesting meaningful reinvestment and/or working-capital and capital-spending demands. Free cash flow growth has been uneven, reflecting a more volatile cash profile as industry conditions normalized from 2022.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.59B	27.10B	28.33B	36.25B	25.96B
Gross Profit	7.29B	9.65B	9.74B	17.05B	7.60B
EBITDA	11.36B	12.72B	14.54B	22.16B	13.89B
Net Income	2.37B	3.04B	4.67B	13.22B	2.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	86.78B	85.44B	74.01B	72.61B	75.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.99B	2.13B	1.43B	984.00M	2.76B
Total Debt	23.96B	27.10B	20.91B	20.77B	30.39B
Total Liabilities	50.19B	50.97B	43.66B	42.52B	54.71B
Stockholders Equity	36.03B	34.16B	30.25B	30.09B	20.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.11B	4.42B	6.06B	12.46B	7.56B
Operating Cash Flow	10.53B	11.44B	12.31B	16.81B	10.43B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.80B	-14.59B	-6.98B	-4.87B	-1.25B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.84B	3.84B	-4.89B	-13.71B	-8.57B

Occidental Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 57.88
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OXY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 57.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.37, above the 50-day MA of 47.22, and above the 200-day MA of 43.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.30 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OXY.

Occidental Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FANG	80 Outperform	$51.30B	26.12	4.34%	2.70%	60.29%	-17.62%
EOG	79 Outperform	$71.68B	11.37	16.76%	3.79%	-5.15%	-19.06%
DVN	77 Outperform	$28.68B	10.12	17.47%	2.64%	11.14%	-21.32%
CTRA	74 Outperform	$24.41B	11.67	11.77%	3.39%	26.13%	31.42%
OXY	73 Outperform	$57.09B	16.93	6.43%	2.39%	-2.48%	-65.26%
WDS	73 Outperform	$41.32B	10.87	7.67%	6.85%	15.31%	58.83%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Occidental Petroleum Corporate Events

Occidental Petroleum Expands Debt Tender Offer and Amendments

On March 5, 2026, Occidental announced early results of cash tender offers for multiple series of senior notes and debentures, alongside related consent solicitations to amend certain indenture terms. The company increased the maximum aggregate principal amount targeted in the offers from $700 million to $1.2 billion, fully subscribing the program by the early tender deadline on March 4, 2026 and triggering proration for the 6.625% 2030 Notes while excluding the 7.200% and 7.950% 2029 Debentures from early acceptance.

Occidental also confirmed that it had accepted all tendered Zero Coupon 2036 Notes and 6.125% 2031 Notes and secured the requisite consents to amend the 2019 indenture for the 6.125% 2031 Notes, with the supplemental indenture becoming operative on March 9, 2026. The amendments remove certain covenants and shorten redemption notice to five business days for that series, signaling a more flexible liability management framework that could lower funding costs and give the company greater optionality in future debt redemptions, while leaving indenture terms for the 2030 and 2029 issues unchanged due to insufficient consents.

The most recent analyst rating on (OXY) stock is a Hold with a $54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Occidental Petroleum stock, see the OXY Stock Forecast page.

Occidental Petroleum Launches Debt Tender Offers, Seeks Consents

On February 19, 2026, Occidental Petroleum launched cash tender offers to repurchase up to $700 million in aggregate principal amount of several series of its outstanding senior notes and debentures, including a $58 million sub-cap for its zero coupon notes due 2036, with an expiration date of March 19, 2026. The offers feature an early tender deadline of March 4, 2026, early tender premiums, and settlement dates shortly after each deadline, with funding to come from cash on hand, including proceeds from the January 2, 2026 sale of Occidental Chemical Corporation and its subsidiaries.

In conjunction with the tender offers, Occidental is soliciting consents from holders of most of the targeted notes to approve amendments that would remove certain covenants from the governing indentures, contingent on achieving requisite consent levels. The transaction is designed to reduce and reshape Occidental’s debt profile while loosening some bond covenant restrictions, signaling continued balance sheet management following the divestiture of its chemical business and potentially improving financial flexibility for the company and its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OXY) stock is a Buy with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Occidental Petroleum stock, see the OXY Stock Forecast page.

Occidental Petroleum Completes Sale of OxyChem to Berkshire

On January 2, 2026, Occidental completed the $9.7 billion all-cash sale of its chemical business, OxyChem, to Berkshire Hathaway, finalizing a divestiture first agreed in October 2025. The transaction is intended to accelerate Occidental’s strategy to strengthen its balance sheet and sharpen its focus on its higher-return oil and gas portfolio, while the company retains OxyChem’s legacy tort claims and certain environmental liabilities in a separate subsidiary that will continue funding and managing long-term remediation activities, a structure that preserves the operational value of the assets for the buyer while keeping historical risk obligations with Occidental.

The most recent analyst rating on (OXY) stock is a Hold with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Occidental Petroleum stock, see the OXY Stock Forecast page.