Coterra Energy (CTRA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $23.14B
• Dividend Yield: 3.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.82M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.49
• Revenue Growth: 26.13%
• EPS Growth: 31.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 915
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 758,644,040
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,211,105
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,821,917
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.54
• 1Y Price Target: $32.40
• Price Target Upside: 7.96% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.09
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $7.52B

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $34.00 ▲(13.30% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is led by strong financial durability (low leverage and solid cash generation) and supportive company updates (guidance execution and the Devon merger synergy potential). Offsetting factors are commodity-driven volatility that hurts earnings visibility and only moderate technical/valuation signals.

Positive Factors

Very low leverage / strong balance sheet

Coterra's material de-leveraging to near-zero net leverage provides durable financial flexibility. Low debt reduces refinancing and interest risk, enabling sustained capex funding, dividends, and M&A optionality across commodity cycles, and supports resilience during weaker price environments.

Consistent positive cash generation

Robust operating and free cash flow across reported years underpins shareholder returns and balance-sheet repair. Persistent cash generation improves funding of maintenance capex, dividends and buybacks without reliance on external financing, making the business more durable through commodity swings.

All-stock merger with Devon to drive scale and synergies

The Devon combination creates a larger, Delaware-focused operator with material scale, enabling optimized capital programs and $1B synergies. Scale and cost synergies can sustainably lower per-unit costs, enhance free cash flow generation and expand the firm's long-term capital-return capacity.

Negative Factors

Commodity-driven revenue and margin volatility

Coterra's earnings and revenue profile remain tightly linked to commodity prices, producing wide swings in margins and cash flow. Even with strong balance sheet and cash generation, this cyclicality complicates multi-year planning, capex pacing and predictable returns for shareholders.

Regional price headwinds (Waha gas basis)

Persistent regional basis weakness like Waha discounts can structurally compress realized gas prices for Permian-weighted production. Addressing this requires long-lead pipeline or marketing solutions; until resolved, realized realizations and margins may lag national benchmarks.

Activist/governance friction from Kimmeridge

Public activist pressure introduces strategic uncertainty and potential distraction for management. Calls for portfolio rationalization or break-up can lead to governance fights, transaction costs, or forced asset moves that disrupt execution and postpone operational priorities over the next several quarters.

Coterra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Coterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the development, exploration and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. It primarily focuses on the Marcellus Shale with approximately 177,000 net acres in the dry gas window of the play located in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania. The company also holds Permian Basin properties with approximately 306,000 net acres; and Anadarko Basin properties located in Oklahoma with approximately 182,000 net acres. In addition, it operates natural gas and saltwater disposal gathering systems in Texas. The company sells its natural gas to industrial customers, local distribution companies, oil and gas marketers, major energy companies, pipeline companies, and power generation facilities. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved reserves of approximately 2,892,582 thousand barrels of oil equivalent, which include 189,429 thousand barrels of oil and other liquid hydrocarbons, 14,895 billion cubic feet of natural gas, and 220,615 thousand barrels of natural gas liquids. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Coterra Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company operates on a revenue model that includes the extraction and production of hydrocarbons, which are then sold to various markets. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of produced crude oil and natural gas, as well as sales of NGLs, which are often extracted during the natural gas processing phase. Coterra also benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with refineries and utilities, providing stability to its cash flows. Additionally, the company may engage in hedging strategies to protect against price volatility in the energy markets, further contributing to its financial performance.

Coterra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong balance sheet (very low leverage by 2025) and consistently positive operating cash flow/free cash flow support resilience. The main drag is pronounced cyclicality in revenue and margins, with a sharp revenue contraction in 2025 reducing earnings visibility.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong overall with healthy margins in most years (net profit margin ranging from ~14% in 2020 up to ~43% in 2022 and ~21% in 2024). However, results are highly cyclical: revenue surged in 2021–2022 (+161% and +159%) but has since declined (roughly flat in 2024 and down sharply in 2025), signaling meaningful commodity-driven volatility. Net income remained positive across the period, but the sharp revenue contraction and margin swings reduce earnings quality and visibility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a clear strength, highlighted by low leverage and a large equity base. Debt-to-equity improved materially from ~0.53 (2020) to ~0.19–0.30 in 2021–2024, and is exceptionally low in 2025 (~0.01), indicating substantial de-risking. Returns on equity were very strong at the cycle peak (about 32% in 2022) and more moderate in other years (~9%–12%), consistent with a commodity producer but still solid given the conservative leverage profile.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is robust, with operating cash flow consistently positive and generally exceeding net income (operating cash flow to net income above 1x each year shown). Free cash flow is also positive each year, including a strong rebound in 2025 versus 2024, supporting shareholder returns and balance-sheet strength. The main weakness is volatility: free cash flow fell meaningfully in 2023 and 2024 before recovering, reflecting sensitivity to the commodity cycle and/or spending levels.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.75B	5.46B	5.68B	9.51B	3.67B
Gross Profit	1.66B	1.69B	2.20B	6.07B	2.06B
EBITDA	4.84B	3.30B	3.84B	6.87B	2.26B
Net Income	1.72B	1.12B	1.63B	4.07B	1.16B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	22.17B	21.63B	20.41B	20.15B	19.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	114.00M	2.04B	956.00M	673.00M	1.04B
Total Debt	250.00M	3.80B	2.53B	2.60B	3.46B
Total Liabilities	5.01B	8.50B	7.38B	7.50B	8.16B
Stockholders Equity	17.16B	13.12B	13.04B	12.66B	11.74B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.02B	1.02B	1.56B	3.75B	939.00M
Operating Cash Flow	4.02B	2.79B	3.66B	5.46B	1.67B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.63B	-1.76B	-2.06B	-1.67B	313.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-551.00M	279.00M	-1.32B	-4.14B	-1.09B

Coterra Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 30.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTRA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 30.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.22, above the 50-day MA of 27.67, and above the 200-day MA of 25.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.94 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CTRA.

Coterra Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DVN	77 Outperform	$26.83B	10.37	17.60%	2.64%	11.14%	-21.32%
EQT	76 Outperform	$36.46B	17.64	9.20%	1.17%	64.84%	219.47%
CTRA	74 Outperform	$23.14B	14.07	11.86%	3.39%	26.13%	31.42%
OVV	74 Outperform	$14.19B	10.47	11.54%	3.16%	-8.07%	-87.88%
AR	74 Outperform	$10.44B	16.97	8.71%	―	17.05%	1028.81%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
CRK	54 Neutral	$5.38B	13.81	16.07%	―	35.41%	―

Coterra Energy Corporate Events

Coterra Energy Announces All-Stock Merger With Devon Energy

Coterra Energy reported that its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results exceeded production guidance on key metrics, with total and gas volumes beating the high end and oil meeting the midpoint, while cash flow from operating activities reached $4.0 billion and free cash flow rose 67% year on year. The company highlighted efficient integration of Delaware Basin acquisitions, a 13% increase in proved reserves to 2.565 billion BOE, and a strong balance sheet with net debt to adjusted EBITDAX at 0.8x.

For 2026, Coterra issued standalone guidance calling for annual production of 750,000 to 810,000 BOE per day, capital expenditures of about $2.25 billion, and an expected reinvestment rate near 50% supporting roughly $2.35 billion in free cash flow. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share for payment on March 25, 2026, and detailed 2025 shareholder returns of $820 million plus significant term-loan repayments, underscoring a policy of returning a high share of free cash flow while keeping leverage below 1.0x.

On February 2, 2026, Coterra announced an all-stock merger with Devon Energy to create a leading shale operator anchored in the Delaware Basin, with Coterra shareholders to receive 0.70 Devon share for each Coterra share. The deal, unanimously approved by both boards and expected to close in the second quarter of 2026 subject to customary approvals, is designed to deliver enhanced free cash flow, $1 billion in targeted annual run-rate synergies by year-end 2027, and an expanded, more robust shareholder return program for investors in the combined company.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTRA) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coterra Energy stock, see the CTRA Stock Forecast page.

Coterra Energy to Merge with Devon Energy

On February 1, 2026, Coterra Energy agreed to merge with Devon Energy in an all-stock transaction that will combine the two U.S. shale producers into a single large-cap operator named Devon Energy, with Coterra shareholders receiving 0.70 Devon share for each Coterra share and owning about 46% of the combined company, while Devon shareholders will hold roughly 54%. The deal, unanimously approved by both boards and expected to close in the second quarter of 2026 subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals, will create one of the world’s largest shale producers, heavily weighted to the Delaware Basin with more than a decade of top-tier drilling inventory, and is projected to deliver about $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies by 2027, strengthen the balance sheet, and be accretive to key per-share financial metrics and free cash flow, supporting an enhanced capital-return framework including a higher base dividend and a multibillion-dollar share buyback authorization. Governance of the combined company will be shared, with an 11-member board comprising six Devon and five Coterra directors, Devon’s CEO Clay Gaspar serving as chief executive and Coterra’s Tom Jorden as non-executive chair, while Coterra simultaneously updated severance and change-in-control protections for senior executives to provide extended coverage and accelerated vesting of equity awards in connection with the transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTRA) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coterra Energy stock, see the CTRA Stock Forecast page.