Coterra Energy (CTRA) AI Stock Analysis

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Coterra Energy

(NYSE:CTRA)

Rating:76Outperform

Price Target:

$29.00

▲(15.35%Upside)

Coterra Energy's strong financial performance and effective operational management in the earnings call are major positives, supporting the company's resilience. Technical analysis and valuation provide a balanced view, while potential operational challenges and oil price concerns slightly weigh on the outlook.

Positive Factors

Capital Efficiency

CTRA showed solid capital efficiency in the first quarter as it worked to integrate recent acquisitions.

Dividend Increase

The base dividend was increased by ~5% to $0.88/sh annually (~3.1% yield).

Portfolio Strategy

CTRA showcased the strength of its diversified portfolio of core assets by reducing oil-directed activity in the Permian Basin and increasing natural gas focused activity in the Marcellus to create a more efficient and resilient program.

Negative Factors

Cost Challenges

EBITDAX was 2% below expectations due to higher than expected costs.

Guidance Shortfall

1Q25 oil production guidance was set 4.3% below the estimate and 3.9% below Consensus.

Quarterly Performance

CTRA reported disappointing 1Q25 results on lower than expected oil/NGL production volumes.

Coterra Energy (CTRA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$18.94B

Dividend Yield3.49%

Average Volume (3M)6.92M

Price to Earnings (P/E)14.5

Beta (1Y)0.58

Revenue Growth10.33%

EPS Growth-0.13%

CountryUS

Employees915

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength62

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.80

Shares Outstanding763,260,740

10 Day Avg. Volume6,147,199

30 Day Avg. Volume6,917,391

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.14

Price to Book (P/B)1.17

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio16.32

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.96

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.00

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.46

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$33.00

Price Target Upside31.26% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering18

Coterra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCoterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company operates primarily in the United States, with core activities in the Permian Basin, Marcellus Shale, and Anadarko Basin. Coterra Energy focuses on optimizing its resource base to maximize efficiency and sustainability in energy production.

How the Company Makes MoneyCoterra Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from its exploration and production activities. The company monetizes its hydrocarbon reserves by extracting, processing, and selling these resources to refineries, utilities, and other market participants. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids at market prices, which can fluctuate based on supply and demand dynamics. Additionally, Coterra may enter into hedging contracts to manage price volatility and secure predictable cash flows. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures can also play a role in expanding its operational capabilities and enhancing its production efficiency.

Coterra Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 0.36%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Coterra demonstrated strong operational and financial performance, exceeding production guidance and successfully integrating recent acquisitions. However, mechanical issues with Harkey wells and concerns about potential oil price weakness led to reduced activity in the Permian Basin. Despite these challenges, the company's financial flexibility and strategic adjustments position it well for future resilience.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Exceeding Production Guidance

Coterra delivered oil production near the high end of guidance and natural gas production exceeded the high end of guidance. CapEx was near the low end of guidance.

Strong Financial Performance

Free hedge revenues increased to $2 billion, up from $1.4 billion in the previous quarter, driven by a 64% increase in natural gas price realizations.

Successful Acquisitions and Integration

Coterra successfully closed the Franklin Mountain and Avant acquisitions and identified significant operational efficiencies.

Debt Reduction

The company retired $250 million of term loans and plans to fully repay the $1 billion term loan during 2025.

Operational Flexibility

Coterra demonstrated the ability to adjust capital allocation by reducing CapEx by $100 million and reallocating activity between the Permian Basin and Marcellus Shale.

Negative Updates

Mechanical Issues with Harkey Wells

Coterra experienced mechanical issues with Harkey wells due to inadequate cementing, leading to high water production. Remediation efforts are underway, but production has been paused.

Potential Oil Price Weakness

Coterra expressed concerns about potential future weakening in oil prices, leading to a reduction in activity in the Permian Basin.

Oil Production Reduction

The net result of changes in activity is expected to reduce oil production by approximately 5,000 barrels per day in the second quarter relative to previous expectations.

Company Guidance

In the Coterra Energy First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, key guidance metrics were highlighted by Tom Jorden, Chairman, CEO, and President. The company reported oil production near the high end of its guidance and natural gas production exceeding the high end. Capital expenditures (CapEx) were near the low end of guidance, and Coterra returned a substantial portion of free cash flow to owners while retiring $250 million of term loans. The company revised its 2025 CapEx forecast, reducing it by $100 million, with cuts of $150 million in the Permian Basin and an increase of $50 million in the Marcellus Shale. Despite these changes, Coterra maintained its full-year production guidance, projecting total production to average between 710 and 760 MBoe per day in the second quarter, with oil expected between 147 and 157 MBoe per day and natural gas between 2.7 and 2.85 Bcf per day. Coterra remains committed to debt reduction, particularly the $1 billion term loan from recent acquisitions, and plans to maintain a reinvestment rate of around 50% of cash flow.

Coterra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Coterra Energy displays strong overall financial performance with impressive cash flow management, solid profit margins, and a healthy balance sheet. Despite a revenue setback in 2023, the company's financial fundamentals remain robust.

Income Statement

Positive

Coterra Energy has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly notable from 2020 to 2022, although there was a decline in 2023. The company maintains healthy profit margins, with a robust net profit margin. However, the significant drop in total revenue in 2023 suggests potential market or operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a strong equity base and a manageable level of debt, reflected in a favorable debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio indicates a stable financial position, supporting long-term sustainability. The decreasing trend in total debt from 2022 to 2023 further strengthens the financial stability.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Coterra Energy shows impressive cash flow management, with consistent free cash flow generation and a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio. The positive free cash flow growth rate from 2020 to 2023 indicates efficient capital management and operational efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.95B	5.46B	5.68B	9.51B	3.45B	1.47B
Gross Profit	2.04B	2.00B	2.51B	8.10B	1.94B	431.22M
EBITDA	3.63B	3.30B	3.84B	6.88B	2.26B	691.00M
Net Income	1.28B	1.12B	1.63B	4.07B	1.16B	201.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	22.27B	21.63B	20.41B	20.15B	19.90B	4.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	186.00M	2.04B	956.00M	673.00M	1.04B	140.00M
Total Debt	0.00	3.80B	2.53B	2.60B	3.46B	1.17B
Total Liabilities	4.89B	8.50B	7.37B	7.48B	8.11B	2.31B
Stockholders Equity	17.37B	13.12B	13.05B	12.66B	11.74B	2.22B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.26B	1.02B	1.56B	3.75B	939.00M	202.39M
Operating Cash Flow	3.08B	2.79B	3.66B	5.46B	1.67B	778.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.78B	-1.76B	-2.06B	-1.67B	313.00M	-584.00M
Financing Cash Flow	622.00M	279.00M	-1.32B	-4.14B	-1.09B	-255.85M

Coterra Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price25.14

Price Trends

50DMA

25.11

Positive

100DMA

25.91

Negative

200DMA

25.53

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.09

Positive

RSI

44.82

Neutral

STOCH

24.87

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTRA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.92, above the 50-day MA of 25.11, and below the 200-day MA of 25.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CTRA.

Coterra Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DVN	79 Outperform	$22.42B	7.95	20.88%	2.75%	12.06%	-16.37%
OVV	77 Outperform	$10.21B	16.73	6.17%	2.92%	-14.46%	-67.20%
EQT	76 Outperform	$34.22B	94.60	2.06%	1.15%	39.56%	-59.84%
CTRA	76 Outperform	$18.94B	14.49	9.40%	3.49%	10.33%	-0.13%
WDS	75 Outperform	$29.59B	8.38	10.23%	6.71%	-0.93%	115.30%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$15.27B	10.03	6.34%	5.16%	4.13%	-66.99%
AR	67 Neutral	$11.37B	49.10	3.21%	―	6.67%	240.70%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CTRA

Coterra Energy

25.14

-0.95

-3.64%

DVN

Devon Energy

34.59

-10.38

-23.08%

OVV

Ovintiv

40.50

-6.22

-13.31%

EQT

54.88

18.25

49.82%

WDS

Woodside Energy Group

15.69

-2.69

-14.64%

Antero Resources

35.56

3.08

9.48%

Coterra Energy Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Coterra Energy Announces Board Member Retirements

Neutral

Feb 24, 2025

On February 19, 2025, Coterra Energy announced that Dan O. Dinges and Robert S. Boswell will retire from the Board of Directors at the end of their current terms and will not stand for re-election at the 2025 annual meeting of stockholders. Dinges, who has a long history with the company and its predecessor, Cabot Oil & Gas, and Boswell, with extensive experience in the oil and gas industry, have both contributed significantly to Coterra’s development. Their retirements are not due to any disagreements with the company, and their leadership has been acknowledged as having strengthened and made Coterra more resilient.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 28, 2025