Coterra Energy (CTRA) AI Stock Analysis

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Coterra Energy

(NYSE:CTRA)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:73Outperform

Price Target:

$29.00

▲(14.35% Upside)

Coterra Energy's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call outcomes, with robust production and strategic cost management. However, technical analysis indicates potential overbought conditions, and valuation metrics suggest some market caution due to commodity price volatility.

Positive Factors

Strong Production Performance

Exceeding production expectations indicates effective operational management and resource utilization, supporting long-term growth and stability.

Successful Asset Integration

Effective integration of acquired assets enhances operational efficiency, reducing costs and improving profitability, which benefits long-term competitiveness.

Robust Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation supports financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and debt reduction, which are crucial for sustainable growth.

Negative Factors

Increased Operating Costs

Rising operating costs can pressure margins and profitability, potentially hindering long-term financial performance if not managed effectively.

Challenges with Gas Prices

Persistently low regional gas prices can affect revenue and necessitate strategic adjustments, impacting long-term market positioning and profitability.

Public Dispute with Kimmeridge

Public disputes with stakeholders can create strategic uncertainty and distract management, potentially affecting long-term strategic execution and investor confidence.

Coterra Energy (CTRA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$19.31B

Dividend Yield3.39%

Average Volume (3M)6.73M

Price to Earnings (P/E)11.7

Beta (1Y)0.50

Revenue Growth26.13%

EPS Growth31.42%

CountryUS

Employees915

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength52

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.41

Shares Outstanding761,377,560

10 Day Avg. Volume7,584,321

30 Day Avg. Volume6,733,233

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.57

Price to Book (P/B)1.44

Price to Sales (P/S)3.47

P/FCF Ratio18.51

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15

Enterprise Value/Revenue3.16

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.63

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.01

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$32.50

Price Target Upside28.15% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering13

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

Coterra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCoterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the development, exploration and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. It primarily focuses on the Marcellus Shale with approximately 177,000 net acres in the dry gas window of the play located in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania. The company also holds Permian Basin properties with approximately 306,000 net acres; and Anadarko Basin properties located in Oklahoma with approximately 182,000 net acres. In addition, it operates natural gas and saltwater disposal gathering systems in Texas. The company sells its natural gas to industrial customers, local distribution companies, oil and gas marketers, major energy companies, pipeline companies, and power generation facilities. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved reserves of approximately 2,892,582 thousand barrels of oil equivalent, which include 189,429 thousand barrels of oil and other liquid hydrocarbons, 14,895 billion cubic feet of natural gas, and 220,615 thousand barrels of natural gas liquids. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes MoneyCoterra Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company operates on a revenue model that includes the extraction and production of hydrocarbons, which are then sold to various markets. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of produced crude oil and natural gas, as well as sales of NGLs, which are often extracted during the natural gas processing phase. Coterra also benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with refineries and utilities, providing stability to its cash flows. Additionally, the company may engage in hedging strategies to protect against price volatility in the energy markets, further contributing to its financial performance.

Coterra Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Operating Revenue by Segment

Operating Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue from different business segments, revealing which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic adjustments might be needed.

Chart InsightsCoterra Energy's oil revenue is on an upward trajectory, bolstered by a 7% quarter-over-quarter increase, as highlighted in the earnings call. This growth is crucial given the softening natural gas prices and challenges with certain wells. The company's strategic focus on oil production and innovative gas marketing strategies are pivotal in maintaining revenue stability. Despite increased capital expenditures, Coterra's robust cash flow and liquidity position provide a solid foundation for future growth, with a positive outlook on production guidance and shareholder returns.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Coterra Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 03, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Coterra Energy delivered strong third quarter results, exceeding production expectations and integrating recent acquisitions effectively. Financial performance was robust, with significant cash flow and debt reduction achievements. However, increased operating costs and challenges with gas prices were noted. The public dispute with Kimmeridge introduces some external pressure on the company's strategic direction.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Third Quarter Performance

Coterra's oil, natural gas, and BOE production each came in approximately 2.5% above the midpoint of guidance, with NGL production hitting an all-time high of 136 MBoe per day. Oil volumes increased by 7% over second quarter levels with a substantial uptick of 11,300 barrels per day.

Successful Integration of Acquired Assets

The integration of Franklin Mountain and Avant assets has led to a 10% reduction in total well costs and 5% reduction in lease operating expenses. Additional $20 million per year savings are expected from operational efficiency improvements.

Positive Financial Metrics

Pre-hedge oil and gas revenues reached $1.7 billion, with 57% from oil production. Discretionary cash flow was $1.15 billion, and free cash flow was $533 million. Coterra announced a $0.22 per share dividend and repaid $250 million of term loans.

Record-Setting Drilling Efficiency in Marcellus

A new 4-mile lateral was drilled in under 9 days, averaging 2,400 feet per day, reducing drilling costs by 24% year-over-year.

Negative Updates

Increased Operating Costs

Cash operating costs increased to $9.81 per BOE, up 5% quarter-over-quarter due to production mix and higher workover activity.

Challenges with Waha Gas Prices

Low Waha gas prices impacted the region, necessitating engagement with long-haul pipeline projects to improve market access and prices.

Public Dispute with Kimmeridge

A public letter from Kimmeridge criticized Coterra's portfolio strategy, indicating discontent and suggesting the company might be more valuable as separate entities.

Company Guidance

During the Coterra Energy Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, guidance was provided that highlighted several key metrics and strategic directions. The company reported that oil, natural gas, and BOE production came in approximately 2.5% above the midpoint of guidance, with NGL production reaching an all-time high of around 136 MBoe per day. For the fourth quarter, oil production is expected to be 175 MBoe per day at the midpoint, while total production is anticipated to average between 770 and 810 MBoe per day. Natural gas production is projected between 2.78 and 2.93 Bcf per day. Coterra expects capital expenditures for the quarter to be around $530 million, reflecting a significant decrease from the third quarter. For the full year 2025, guidance was revised to an annual MBoe per day production of 777 at the midpoint, a 5% increase from earlier forecasts. The company plans to deliver a comprehensive updated 3-year outlook with its fourth quarter release in February and expects 2026 capital to be modestly down year-over-year while maintaining production parameters. Additionally, Coterra highlighted its commitment to growing revenue, cash flow, free cash flow, and profitability, with an emphasis on maintaining low breakevens and operational flexibility.

Coterra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Coterra Energy demonstrates strong profitability with a solid net profit margin and robust balance sheet, despite recent revenue declines. Efficient operations and solid cash flow generation underpin financial stability, though revenue growth and cash flow improvement remain areas for enhancement.

Income Statement

Positive

Coterra Energy demonstrates strong profitability with a solid net profit margin of 24.28% TTM, although revenue has declined by 11.36% TTM. The company maintains healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating efficient operations despite the revenue drop. Historical revenue growth has been volatile, reflecting industry challenges.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30 TTM, suggesting prudent financial leverage. Return on equity is moderate at 11.48% TTM, indicating decent profitability relative to shareholder investment. The equity ratio is strong, highlighting financial stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

Coterra Energy's cash flow is solid, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.73 TTM, indicating good cash generation relative to profits. Operating cash flow coverage is strong, but free cash flow growth has been modest at 3.18% TTM, suggesting room for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.01B	5.46B	5.68B	9.51B	3.67B	1.41B
Gross Profit	2.57B	1.69B	2.20B	6.07B	2.06B	340.01M
EBITDA	4.42B	3.30B	3.84B	6.87B	2.26B	689.78M
Net Income	1.65B	1.12B	1.63B	4.07B	1.16B	200.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.01B	21.63B	20.41B	20.15B	19.90B	4.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	98.00M	2.04B	956.00M	673.00M	1.04B	140.00M
Total Debt	4.12B	3.80B	2.53B	2.60B	3.46B	1.17B
Total Liabilities	9.29B	8.50B	7.38B	7.50B	8.16B	2.31B
Stockholders Equity	14.72B	13.12B	13.04B	12.66B	11.74B	2.22B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.45B	1.02B	1.56B	3.75B	939.00M	202.00M
Operating Cash Flow	3.68B	2.79B	3.66B	5.46B	1.67B	778.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-5.47B	-1.76B	-2.06B	-1.67B	313.00M	-584.00M
Financing Cash Flow	1.05B	279.00M	-1.32B	-4.14B	-1.09B	-256.00M

Coterra Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price25.36

Price Trends

50DMA

26.01

Negative

100DMA

24.77

Positive

200DMA

24.62

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.22

Positive

RSI

46.45

Neutral

STOCH

23.93

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTRA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 25.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.63, below the 50-day MA of 26.01, and above the 200-day MA of 24.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CTRA.

Coterra Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DVN	79 Outperform	$23.79B	8.92	18.35%	2.64%	11.14%	-21.32%
EQT	76 Outperform	$31.37B	17.15	8.19%	1.17%	64.84%	219.47%
CTRA	73 Outperform	$19.31B	11.70	11.86%	3.39%	26.13%	31.42%
AR	67 Neutral	$9.85B	18.29	7.65%	―	17.05%	1028.81%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
OVV	60 Neutral	$10.22B	44.23	2.26%	3.16%	-8.07%	-87.88%
CRK	59 Neutral	$6.46B	98.92	2.86%	―	35.41%	―

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CTRA

Coterra Energy

25.36

-3.46

-12.01%

CRK

Comstock Resources

22.04

0.52

2.42%

DVN

Devon Energy

37.92

0.54

1.44%

OVV

Ovintiv

40.36

-4.20

-9.43%

EQT

50.26

-2.88

-5.42%

Antero Resources

31.94

-8.63

-21.27%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2025