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EQT (EQT)
NYSE:EQT
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EQT
(NYSE:EQT)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$66.00
▲(12.99% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial strength (notably balance-sheet progress and solid cash generation) and a strong, cash-flow-focused earnings call with clear deleveraging and FCF guidance. Technicals are supportive with price above key averages, while valuation is only moderate due to a modest dividend yield and mid-range P/E.
Positive Factors
Strong Free Cash Flow
Sustained multi‑year free cash flow materially strengthens the company's ability to deleverage, fund maintenance capex and selective growth, and return capital. Predictable multi‑year FCF supports strategic flexibility and lowers funding risk across cycles.
Balance Sheet Deleveraging
Meaningful deleveraging improves financial resilience and lowers interest burden, giving management optionality for dividends, buybacks or project funding. A stronger capital structure reduces refinancing risk and enhances ability to withstand commodity cycles.
Operational & Commercial Advantage
Lower operating costs and sector‑leading execution translate to sustainably higher margins and faster unit economics. Superior completions and lower LOE create durable competitive advantage in Appalachia, improving returns on new wells and resilience to price swings.
Negative Factors
Volatile FCF Conversion
Uneven conversion of earnings to free cash flow undermines predictability of capital allocation and shareholder returns. Persistent variability can force conservative payout policies or delay deleveraging and growth investments when commodity prices or working capital move unfavorably.
Midstream Execution Dependency
Upstream production growth and improved differentials hinge on third‑party or jointly managed midstream projects. Delays, permitting or cost overruns in midstream can defer realized volumes, compress spreads and delay expected cash returns from upstream investments.
Partial Hedging / Price Exposure
Meaningful unhedged production leaves cash flows exposed to sharp gas price swings and localized volatility from pipeline outages. In tight market conditions or extreme weather, revenue and FCF can vary materially, complicating multi‑year planning and debt reduction timelines.
EQT (EQT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$36.46B
Dividend Yield1.17%
Average Volume (3M)10.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.8
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth64.84%
EPS Growth219.47%
CountryUS
Employees881
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.90
Shares Outstanding624,274,000
10 Day Avg. Volume9,372,247
30 Day Avg. Volume10,636,992
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)3.69
P/FCF Ratio11.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.52
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$66.35Price Target Upside13.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)4.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.68B
EQT Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionEQT Corporation operates as a natural gas production company in the United States. The company produces natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), including ethane, propane, isobutane, butane, and natural gasoline. As of December 31, 2021, it had 25.0 trillion cubic feet of proved natural gas, NGLs, and crude oil reserves across approximately 2.0 million gross acres, including 1.7 million gross acres in the Marcellus play. The company was founded in 1878 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyEQT generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural gas, natural gas liquids, and other hydrocarbon products extracted from its extensive reserves. The company employs a revenue model that includes direct sales to utility companies, industrial users, and through the spot market. Key revenue streams include long-term supply contracts, which provide consistent cash flow, and spot market transactions that capitalize on fluctuating prices. Additionally, EQT may engage in joint ventures and partnerships with other energy companies to expand its operational capabilities and market reach, enhancing its overall profitability. Factors contributing to its earnings include market demand for natural gas, pricing trends in the energy sector, and the company's ability to efficiently manage production costs and optimize its asset portfolio.
EQT Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong, execution-driven performance narrative: material operational gains, significant free cash flow generation ($2.5B in 2025) and repeated consensus beats, a clear plan to rapidly deleverage and selectively deploy the first $600M of post‑dividend cash into high-return infrastructure (MVP upsizing, compression, water, Clarington Connector). Marketing and commercial execution during Winter Storm Fern showcased differentiated value capture. Key risks discussed were industry-level infrastructure constraints that drove extreme localized prices, inventory tightening and the fact that sustained upstream growth depends on timely midstream builds and demand realization. On balance, the company’s demonstrated operational outperformance, attractive projected returns on targeted infrastructure, and credible deleveraging roadmap outweigh the industry and timing risks called out on the call.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Free Cash Flow and Consensus Beats
EQT generated $2.5 billion of free cash flow attributable to EQT in 2025. Q4 free cash flow was nearly $750 million (~$200 million above consensus). The company has exceeded consensus free cash flow estimates for six consecutive quarters with an average beat of ~40%. 2026 free cash flow is guided to ~$3.5 billion (includes ~$600 million of growth investments) and would be >$4.0 billion prior to those elective investments. Cumulative free cash flow over the next five years is projected to exceed $16 billion. Management stated January/February performance already exceeds consensus Q1 expectations by >30% and February alone could approach $1 billion.
Material Operational Outperformance and Cost Reductions
Compression projects produced a 15% greater-than-expected base production uplift. Average 2025 well cost per lateral foot was 13% lower year-over-year and 6% below internal forecast. Per-unit LOE came in nearly 15% below expectations and approximately 50% lower than the peer average. The company recorded its fastest quarterly completion pace and sector-leading drilling footage (24- and 48-hour records). Production consistently topped expectations in 2025.
Marketing Optimization & Commercial Execution
Marketing optimization delivered more than $200 million of incremental free cash flow vs guidance in 2025. EQT is the second-largest natural gas marketer in the U.S. and highlighted opportunistic commercial execution—selling ~98% of February production first-of-month (settling at $7.22 M2 and $7.46 Henry Hub) and capturing high cash pricing during Winter Storm Fern.
Hedging Posture Provides Downside Protection
Tactical hedging increased: ~40% hedged in Q1 (average floor ≈ $4.30/MMBtu, ceiling ≈ $6.30), ~20% hedged for Q2/Q3 (≈ $3.50 floors / ≈ $5 ceilings) and ~20% hedged for Q4 (≈ $3.75 floor / $5.15 ceiling). This hedge profile provides downside protection while retaining upside optionality.
Balance Sheet Progress and Rapid Deleveraging
Net debt exited the year just under $7.7 billion (inclusive of $425 million of working capital usage in the quarter). Management expects to exit Q1 with net debt < $6 billion and is rapidly approaching a long-term target of ~$5 billion, enabling greater capital allocation flexibility (growth projects, dividend growth, opportunistic buybacks).
Strategic Midstream Upsize—MVP Interest Acquisition
EQT elected to purchase additional interest in MVP Mainline and MVP Boost, funding ~ $115 million of the consideration and raising its ownership to ~53%. Management estimates the purchase price is roughly 9x adjusted EBITDA and delivers a low-risk ~12% IRR inclusive of MVP Boost growth CapEx underpinned by long-duration (20-year) contracts.
Targeted Growth Investments with Attractive Returns
2026 maintenance capital budget set at $2.07–$2.21 billion (includes full-year Olympus impact). Management will allocate the first ~$600 million of post-dividend free cash flow to elective high-return projects (compression, water infrastructure, Clarington Connector pipeline, strategic leasing). Management expects these infrastructure projects to deliver attractive free-cash-flow yields (guidance referenced ~20–30% FCF-yield range on such projects) and to structurally improve future economics (lower LOE, better differentials).
Operational Resilience During Winter Storm Fern
EQT demonstrated operational resiliency during Winter Storm Fern: Mountain Valley pipeline flowed ~6% above its 2 Bcf/day nameplate, uptime during the storm was ~97.2% (near 98% target) and the commercial team captured outsized pricing (Station 165 spiked to >$130/MMBtu). Management highlighted a 2x outperformance vs Appalachian peers on uptime benchmarking during the event.
2026 Volume and Earnings Outlook
Management initiated a 2026 production forecast of 2.275–2.375 Tcfe and expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA attributable to EQT of ~ $6.5 billion. Prior to elective growth investments, 2026 free cash flow would be > $4.0 billion (vs guided $3.5 billion including ~$600M of growth investments).
Negative Updates
Elevated Net Debt and Working Capital Draw
Net debt at year-end was just under $7.7 billion and the quarter included $425 million of working capital usage. Although management expects rapid deleveraging (Q1 exit < $6.0 billion and a long-term target near $5.0 billion), leverage remains elevated in the near term.
Infrastructure Constraints Driving Extreme Price Volatility
Winter Storm Fern exposed systemic pipeline constraints—cash prices spiked to >$130/MMBtu at Transco Station 165—underscoring a need for more pipeline capacity and permitting reform. These structural constraints represent industry-level risk and can drive extreme localized price volatility.
Market Tightness and Inventory Risks
Winter-to-date weather was ~5% colder than normal, tightening inventories by ~225 Bcf vs prior expectations and driving U.S. storage below the 5-year average. Eastern storage is ~13% below the 5-year average. Management highlighted tighter balances into 2027, which increases price and supply-side risk if demand or outages persist.
Guide Conservatism and Transactional Noise
2026 guidance includes conservatism and some one-time transactional noise (e.g., Olympus acquisition added roughly ~$100 million of maintenance capital). Management acknowledged year-over-year noise from acquisitions and asset sales that can obscure the underlying operational momentum.
Partial Hedge Coverage and Remaining Price Exposure
While hedging was increased tactically, coverage remains partial (≈40% Q1, ≈20% for other quarters), leaving a material portion of future volumes exposed to price moves and market volatility should upside/downside events occur outside hedged periods.
Growth Dependent on Timely Infrastructure and Demand Realization
Management’s ability to sustainably grow upstream volumes is contingent on successful execution and timing of midstream projects (MVP Boost, Clarington Connector, Southgate) and the crystallization of demand (power, data centers, LNG). Delays or slower-than-expected demand realization could defer upstream growth.
Company Guidance
EQT guided to 2026 production of 2.275–2.375 Tcfe and set maintenance capital at $2.07–$2.21 billion (includes Olympus), while allocating the first $600 million of post‑dividend free cash flow to high‑return growth projects; at recent strip pricing management expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA attributable to EQT of ≈$6.5 billion and 2026 free cash flow attributable to EQT of ≈$3.5 billion (would be >$4.0 billion prior to the $600M growth spend), with cumulative free cash flow attributable to EQT of >$16 billion over the next five years. Balance sheet targets include total debt “rapidly approaching” $5.0 billion and net debt exiting Q1 under $6.0 billion (year‑end net debt was just under $7.7B), and management said levered breakeven sits “around 220” on a levered basis. Recent execution metrics underpinning the plan: Q4 free cash flow ≈$750 million (≈$200M above consensus), 2025 free cash flow attributable to EQT ≈$2.5 billion with 2025 NYMEX ≈$3.40/MMBtu, marketing optimization added >$200 million of FCF versus guidance, and tactical hedges now ≈40% for Q1 (avg floor ≈$4.30 / ceiling ≈$6.30), ≈20% for Q2–Q3 (floors ~$3.50 / ceilings ≈$5) and ≈20% for Q4 (floors ~$3.75 / ceilings $5.15); management also noted nearly all February production (~98%) was sold first‑of‑month (M2 $7.22, Henry Hub $7.46) and February FCF could approach $1 billion.EQT Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Scores across statements are strong (Income 74, Balance Sheet 82, Cash Flow 78), reflecting materially improved profitability since the downturn, a meaningfully strengthened balance sheet (including 2025 showing no reported debt), and solid operating cash flow. The primary constraint is cyclicality and variability in margins/FCF, plus uneven conversion of earnings into free cash flow in multiple years.Income Statement
Profitability has improved materially versus 2020–2021 losses, with strong net income in 2022–2025 and a sharp revenue rebound in 2025 (up ~43% year over year). Margins are volatile across the cycle (notably strong in 2023 and 2025, weak in 2024), which is typical for E&P but still raises earnings durability risk. Overall, the income statement shows strong recent performance but meaningful year-to-year variability.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage has trended down meaningfully, culminating in 2025 showing no reported debt and a stronger equity base, which materially improves financial flexibility. Earlier years show moderate leverage (debt-to-equity roughly ~0.40–0.57 from 2020–2024) and weaker returns in down-cycle years, but the recent step-change in capital structure and higher return on equity in 2025 are clear positives. Key watch-out is the sharp year-to-year balance sheet shift, which can signal reporting/structure changes and warrants monitoring for consistency.82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is solid and has strengthened into 2025, supporting strong absolute free cash flow (notably in 2022 and 2025). That said, free cash flow has been choppy (down in 2023 and 2024 before rebounding sharply in 2025), and free cash flow has not consistently matched accounting earnings (free cash flow running well below net income in multiple years, including 2024–2025). Overall cash generation is strong, but variability and conversion of earnings into free cash flow are the main weaknesses.78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 9.07B | 5.22B | 5.07B | 12.14B | 6.84B |
| Gross Profit | 4.43B | 767.22M | 941.58M | 8.06B | 3.00B |
| EBITDA | 5.87B | 2.88B | 4.06B | 4.25B | 429.09M |
| Net Income | 2.04B | 230.58M | 1.74B | 1.77B | -1.14B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 41.79B | 39.83B | 25.29B | 22.67B | 22.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 110.80M | 202.09M | 80.98M | 1.46B | 113.96M |
| Total Debt | 7.80B | 9.37B | 5.84B | 5.71B | 5.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 14.43B | 15.55B | 10.50B | 11.46B | 12.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 23.75B | 20.60B | 14.77B | 11.17B | 9.95B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.84B | 573.26M | 1.16B | 2.07B | 607.32M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.13B | 2.83B | 3.18B | 3.47B | 1.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.84B | -1.58B | -4.31B | -1.42B | -2.07B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.37B | -1.13B | -242.86M | -699.13M | 506.05M |
EQT Technical Analysis
Positive
58.41
Price Trends
54.80
Positive
55.64
Positive
54.69
Positive
Market Momentum
1.29
Negative
56.83
Neutral
66.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EQT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.93, above the 50-day MA of 54.80, and above the 200-day MA of 54.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EQT.
EQT Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $26.83B | 10.46 | 17.60% | 2.64% | 11.14% | -21.32% | |
76 Outperform | $36.46B | 17.82 | 9.20% | 1.17% | 64.84% | 219.47% | |
74 Outperform | $23.14B | 14.19 | 11.86% | 3.39% | 26.13% | 31.42% | |
74 Outperform | $10.44B | 16.68 | 8.71% | ― | 17.05% | 1028.81% | |
72 Outperform | $9.13B | 16.20 | 14.18% | 1.00% | 23.88% | 20.55% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
54 Neutral | $5.38B | 13.73 | 16.07% | ― | 35.41% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
EQT
EQT
58.41
10.14
21.01%
CTRA
Coterra Energy
30.50
4.05
15.31%
CRK
Comstock Resources
18.29
-0.27
-1.45%
DVN
Devon Energy
43.28
8.37
23.99%
RRC
Range Resources
38.53
1.39
3.74%
AR
Antero Resources
33.83
-3.52
-9.42%
EQT Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
EQT Adopts 2026 Executive Short-Term Incentive Plan
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
On February 4, 2026, EQT Corporation’s board-level Management Development and Compensation Committee approved the 2026 Short-Term Incentive Plan to govern annual bonus opportunities for executive officers and selected employees for services in calendar year 2026. The plan aims to keep total cash compensation competitive while tying payouts to performance goals that reflect both shareholder value and operational priorities.
The 2026 plan largely mirrors the 2025 version, with awards based on free cash flow per share, total capital expenditures, cash operating costs, environmental, health and safety intensity, and natural gas production. Incentive awards will be determined after year-end 2026, generally paid in cash in 2027, although the committee may settle awards in common stock or adjust payouts at its discretion, and in a change-of-control scenario, performance will be measured pro rata at target levels, affecting how and when participants receive compensation.
The most recent analyst rating on (EQT) stock is a Hold with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EQT stock, see the EQT Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and Strategy
EQT Redeems 7.5% Senior Notes to Strengthen Balance Sheet
Positive
Dec 19, 2025
On December 19, 2025, EQT Corporation announced that it had issued a notice of redemption for all of its outstanding 7.500% Senior Notes due 2027, with an aggregate principal amount of $495.9 million, stating that the notes will be fully redeemed on December 30, 2025 at the redemption price specified in the governing indenture. The transaction reflects EQT’s ongoing balance sheet and liability management efforts, potentially reducing future interest expenses and altering its debt maturity profile, which may improve its financial flexibility and capital structure for stakeholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (EQT) stock is a Buy with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on EQT stock, see the EQT Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.