Record Free Cash Flow and Consensus Beats
EQT generated $2.5 billion of free cash flow attributable to EQT in 2025. Q4 free cash flow was nearly $750 million (~$200 million above consensus). The company has exceeded consensus free cash flow estimates for six consecutive quarters with an average beat of ~40%. 2026 free cash flow is guided to ~$3.5 billion (includes ~$600 million of growth investments) and would be >$4.0 billion prior to those elective investments. Cumulative free cash flow over the next five years is projected to exceed $16 billion. Management stated January/February performance already exceeds consensus Q1 expectations by >30% and February alone could approach $1 billion.
Material Operational Outperformance and Cost Reductions
Compression projects produced a 15% greater-than-expected base production uplift. Average 2025 well cost per lateral foot was 13% lower year-over-year and 6% below internal forecast. Per-unit LOE came in nearly 15% below expectations and approximately 50% lower than the peer average. The company recorded its fastest quarterly completion pace and sector-leading drilling footage (24- and 48-hour records). Production consistently topped expectations in 2025.
Marketing Optimization & Commercial Execution
Marketing optimization delivered more than $200 million of incremental free cash flow vs guidance in 2025. EQT is the second-largest natural gas marketer in the U.S. and highlighted opportunistic commercial execution—selling ~98% of February production first-of-month (settling at $7.22 M2 and $7.46 Henry Hub) and capturing high cash pricing during Winter Storm Fern.
Hedging Posture Provides Downside Protection
Tactical hedging increased: ~40% hedged in Q1 (average floor ≈ $4.30/MMBtu, ceiling ≈ $6.30), ~20% hedged for Q2/Q3 (≈ $3.50 floors / ≈ $5 ceilings) and ~20% hedged for Q4 (≈ $3.75 floor / $5.15 ceiling). This hedge profile provides downside protection while retaining upside optionality.
Balance Sheet Progress and Rapid Deleveraging
Net debt exited the year just under $7.7 billion (inclusive of $425 million of working capital usage in the quarter). Management expects to exit Q1 with net debt < $6 billion and is rapidly approaching a long-term target of ~$5 billion, enabling greater capital allocation flexibility (growth projects, dividend growth, opportunistic buybacks).
Strategic Midstream Upsize—MVP Interest Acquisition
EQT elected to purchase additional interest in MVP Mainline and MVP Boost, funding ~ $115 million of the consideration and raising its ownership to ~53%. Management estimates the purchase price is roughly 9x adjusted EBITDA and delivers a low-risk ~12% IRR inclusive of MVP Boost growth CapEx underpinned by long-duration (20-year) contracts.
Targeted Growth Investments with Attractive Returns
2026 maintenance capital budget set at $2.07–$2.21 billion (includes full-year Olympus impact). Management will allocate the first ~$600 million of post-dividend free cash flow to elective high-return projects (compression, water infrastructure, Clarington Connector pipeline, strategic leasing). Management expects these infrastructure projects to deliver attractive free-cash-flow yields (guidance referenced ~20–30% FCF-yield range on such projects) and to structurally improve future economics (lower LOE, better differentials).
Operational Resilience During Winter Storm Fern
EQT demonstrated operational resiliency during Winter Storm Fern: Mountain Valley pipeline flowed ~6% above its 2 Bcf/day nameplate, uptime during the storm was ~97.2% (near 98% target) and the commercial team captured outsized pricing (Station 165 spiked to >$130/MMBtu). Management highlighted a 2x outperformance vs Appalachian peers on uptime benchmarking during the event.
2026 Volume and Earnings Outlook
Management initiated a 2026 production forecast of 2.275–2.375 Tcfe and expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA attributable to EQT of ~ $6.5 billion. Prior to elective growth investments, 2026 free cash flow would be > $4.0 billion (vs guided $3.5 billion including ~$600M of growth investments).