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Webster Financial (WBS)
NYSE:WBS

Webster Financial (WBS) AI Stock Analysis

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WBS

Webster Financial

(NYSE:WBS)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$75.00
â–²(13.64% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance and balance-sheet strength, tempered by weaker recent free-cash-flow growth. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum. Valuation is reasonable for the profile, and the latest earnings call reinforced constructive 2026 guidance and capital return, albeit with deposit competition and expense pressure to monitor.
Positive Factors
High profitability and returns
Sustained high ROTCE and improving ROA indicate the franchise converts earned revenue into shareholder returns efficiently. Durable profitability supports reinvestment, organic growth, buybacks and higher loss-absorbing capacity, strengthening long-term capital allocation optionality.
Prudent capital and low leverage
A low debt-to-equity ratio and CET1 near 11% provide a durable capital cushion versus peers. That balance-sheet strength funds organic growth, supports continued buybacks and absorb losses from stressed CRE pockets without forcing dilutive capital actions.
Diversified growth initiatives
Strategic expansion into HSA and fintech verticals plus targeted tuck-ins diversifies deposit sources and fee income across products and channels. Multi-year deposit targets (HSA $1–2.5B over five years) improve structural funding stability and noninterest income resilience.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow momentum
A marked decline in free cash flow growth signals potential volatility in cash conversion from earnings. Over months, this can constrain organic investment, limit flexibility for buybacks/dividends and force reliance on capital markets if operating cash generation remains inconsistent.
Deposit competition and repricing pressure
Sustained deposit competition in the regional footprint increases funding costs and forces higher pricing of core deposits. Over 2–6 months, this can compress NIM if loan yields lag and requires trade-offs between growth and margin preservation or increases reliance on higher-cost wholesale funding.
Concentrated problem loan pockets
Material CRE and health-care concentrations present persistent credit risk even as classified loans fall. These pockets can generate episodic charge-offs or longer workout timelines, pressuring reserves and earnings volatility and limiting capital deployment until resolution completes.

Webster Financial (WBS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Webster Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionWebster Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Webster Bank, National Association that provides a range of banking, investment, and financial services to individuals, families, and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Commercial Banking, HSA Bank, and Retail Banking. The Commercial Banking segment provides lending, deposit, and cash management services; commercial and industrial lending and leasing, commercial real estate lending, equipment financing, and asset-based lending, as well as treasury and payment services; wealth management solutions to business owners, operators, and consumers; and trust, asset management, financial planning, insurance, retirement, and investment products. The HSA Bank segment offers health savings accounts, health reimbursement arrangements, flexible spending accounts, and commuter services that are distributed directly to employers and individual consumers, as well as through national and regional insurance carriers, consultants, and financial advisors. The Retail Banking segment provides deposit and fee-based services, residential mortgages, home equity lines, secured and unsecured loans, and credit cards to consumers. The company also offers online and mobile banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 130 banking centers and 251 ATMs. The company was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyWebster Financial generates revenue primarily through interest income and non-interest income. Interest income is derived from loans and leases, which include personal loans, commercial loans, and mortgages. The interest earned on these financial products constitutes a significant portion of the company's earnings. Additionally, Webster Financial earns non-interest income from service fees, asset management fees, and trading activities. The bank may also benefit from strategic partnerships and collaborations with other financial institutions or technology firms that enhance its service offerings and expand its customer base. Overall, the company’s diversified revenue streams and focus on core banking activities contribute to its financial performance.

Webster Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed a positive operational and financial performance profile: solid full-year profitability and capital generation, diversified loan growth, improving credit metrics, and strategic investments in growth verticals. Headwinds include elevated deposit competition, some near-term expense pressure from investments, GAAP adjustments in the quarter, and two remaining concentrated problem loan pools (office and health care) that are being actively managed. Management provided conservative but constructive guidance for 2026 with capital return optionality intact.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Profitability and Returns
Full-year 2025 ROTCE of 17% and ROA of 1.2%; EPS increased 10% year-over-year, indicating improved profitability and shareholder value.
Loan and Deposit Growth
Full-year loans grew ~7.8%-8% and deposits grew 6%; Q4 loans up $1.5B (+2.8%) and assets up $880M (+1%) in the quarter, demonstrating continued balance-sheet expansion.
Tangible Book Value and Capital Actions
Tangible book value per share increased 13% year-over-year (to $37.20 from $36.42 sequentially); accelerated capital distributions with 10.9 million shares repurchased during 2025 (3.6M in Q4).
Net Interest Margin Stability
NIM exited the quarter at 3.35% (December spot) and management expects mid-3.30s (3.35%) as a reasonable 2026 midpoint despite rate movement assumptions.
Improving Asset Quality
Marked credit remediation: commercial classified loans down 5% year-over-year (and down 7% linked-quarter), nonperforming assets down 8% QoQ, criticized loans down 6% QoQ; allowance for credit losses reduced $9M QoQ driven by charge-offs of previously reserved loans.
Diversification and Strategic Investments
Ongoing investments in nontraditional banking verticals (HSA Bank, Mitros, InterSync) and tuck-in M&A (SecureSafe acquisition) to expand deposit and fee-generation capabilities and proprietary distribution.
Guidance for 2026 with Modest Growth
2026 guidance: loan growth 5%–7%, deposit growth 4%–6%, expected revenue midpoint ~$3.0B; GAAP NII guidance $2.57B–$2.63B (assumes two 25bp Fed cuts), fees $390M–$410M, expenses $1.46B–$1.48B.
HSA Bank Opportunity
Management expects newly HSA-eligible ACA plan participants to drive $1B–$2.5B in incremental deposits over five years, including $50M–$100M of growth in 2026, supported by enhanced mobile/web enrollment and DTC account growth.
Negative Updates
Quarterly GAAP Adjustments Reduced Reported Earnings
Q4 had adjustments that reduced pretax income by $8M and after-tax income by $6M; excluding adjustments, adjusted PPNR was down $4.9M QoQ, highlighting some volatility between GAAP and adjusted results.
Expense Pressure from Growth Investments
Noninterest expense increased QoQ due to incentive accruals and investments (HSA Bank expansion, technology); 2026 expenses expected to be a few percentage points higher than Q4 adjusted levels due to payroll taxes, merit, and benefits seasonality.
Deposit Competition and Seasonality
Elevated competition across deposit products in the franchise footprint; seasonal $1.2B public fund outflow in Q4 (expected to flow back in Q1); average cost of deposits fell to 1.91% (from 1.99%) but management expects further repricing activity.
Remaining Problem Loan Concentrations
Two isolated loan pockets persist: office (~$720M) and health care services (~$400M), together ~ $1B—these remain the largest sources of NPLs/classified loans, though management reports they are ring-fenced and adequately reserved.
Loan Yield and Spread Compression
Loan yields were pressured by market moves (management noted loan yields down ~17 bps in the quarter versus mid-quarter expectations) and observed credit spread compression (30–50 bps tightening in some CRE spreads over ~18 months).
Conservative Growth Guide vs Recent Momentum
Despite an annualized Q4 growth run rate above the guide, management set a conservative 2026 loan growth target (5%–7%), leaving potential upside but signaling prudence in allocation and risk management.
Company Guidance
The company guided to 2026 loan growth of 5%–7% and deposit growth of 4%–6%, with midpoint revenue of $3.0 billion and GAAP net interest income of $2.57–2.63 billion (assuming two 25 bp Fed cuts), fees of $390–410 million and expenses of $1.46–1.48 billion (a few percentage points above Q4 adjusted levels); management expects a roughly flat full‑year NIM in the mid‑3.30% range (exit/December NIM 3.35%) and modeled a ~30% deposit beta. They reaffirmed a strong capital posture (CET1 ~11.2% today, near‑term target ~11%, long‑term target 10.5%), continued share repurchases (10.9 million shares repurchased in 2025, 3.6 million in Q4), and projected HSA Bank could add $1.0–2.5 billion of deposits over five years (including $50–100 million in 2026); recent operating metrics cited included Q4 assets up $880 million (1%), loans up $1.5 billion (2.8%) and +7.8% year, deposits +0.9% Q/Q (+6% year), ROTCE 17%, ROA 1.2%, EPS +10% YoY, tangible book value +13% YoY ($37.20 vs. $36.42), charge‑offs ~35 bps, allowance down $9 million Q/Q, NPAs down 8% and commercial classified loans down 7%.

Webster Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong profitability (net margin 21.32%, EBIT margin 27.58%) and prudent leverage (debt-to-equity 0.13) support a solid financial profile. The main offset is weaker cash-flow momentum, with free cash flow growth down 30.16% TTM and indications of volatility in cash generation.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Webster Financial demonstrates strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.58% and consistent profitability, as evidenced by a solid net profit margin of 21.32% and an EBIT margin of 27.58%. The company has maintained healthy gross and EBITDA margins, indicating efficient operations. However, the slight decline in gross profit margin over time suggests potential cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13 in the TTM period, indicating prudent financial management. The return on equity is robust at 9.96%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio has slightly decreased, suggesting increased leverage compared to previous years.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 30.16% in the TTM period, which could be a concern for future liquidity. Despite this, the company maintains a high free cash flow to net income ratio of 96.63%, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting potential volatility in cash flow generation.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.34B4.17B3.94B2.72B1.26B1.29B
Gross Profit2.58B2.36B2.50B2.19B1.28B1.04B
EBITDA1.27B1.09B1.16B879.78M575.37M323.15M
Net Income924.75M768.71M867.84M644.28M408.86M220.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets83.19B79.03B74.95B71.28B34.92B32.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.06B2.08B10.68B8.73B4.70B3.59B
Total Debt3.91B3.36B3.87B7.69B1.39B1.88B
Total Liabilities73.73B69.89B66.26B63.22B31.48B29.36B
Stockholders Equity9.46B9.13B8.69B8.06B3.44B3.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.59B1.37B938.35M1.31B672.00M359.27M
Operating Cash Flow1.63B1.40B978.65M1.34B688.59M380.55M
Investing Cash Flow-4.22B-3.87B-2.60B-7.19B-2.41B-2.29B
Financing Cash Flow2.46B2.82B2.49B6.23B1.91B1.91B

Webster Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price66.00
Price Trends
50DMA
63.20
Positive
100DMA
60.51
Positive
200DMA
57.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.63
Negative
RSI
58.75
Neutral
STOCH
60.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WBS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.74, above the 50-day MA of 63.20, and above the 200-day MA of 57.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for WBS.

Webster Financial Risk Analysis

Webster Financial disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Webster Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Webster Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$10.29B13.0010.68%2.38%33.87%12.26%
79
Outperform
$9.88B12.9412.11%1.40%3.58%13.93%
76
Outperform
$9.66B13.6912.59%1.37%38.81%10.38%
76
Outperform
$10.61B11.1510.81%2.49%4.78%21.68%
70
Outperform
$11.33B16.7910.09%3.21%-7.07%31.09%
69
Neutral
$9.81B10.2113.50%1.80%6.30%25.28%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
WBS
Webster Financial
66.00
8.71
15.20%
CMA
Comerica
88.67
25.50
40.37%
UMBF
UMB Financial
128.05
16.47
14.76%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
149.71
24.49
19.56%
WAL
Western Alliance
89.65
6.84
8.26%
SSB
SouthState Corporation
102.97
2.35
2.33%

Webster Financial Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Webster Financial Posts Strong Fourth-Quarter 2025 Results
Positive
Jan 23, 2026

On January 23, 2026, Webster Financial reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, posting net income applicable to common stockholders of $248.7 million, or $1.55 per diluted share, up from $171.8 million, or $1.01 per share, a year earlier, with adjusted EPS rising to $1.59 from $1.43. Revenue reached $746.2 million, supported by growth in loans and leases to $56.6 billion and deposits to $68.8 billion, while net interest income increased year-on-year despite a modest compression in net interest margin to 3.35%. Credit quality metrics remained stable, with provision for credit losses down from a year ago and non-performing loans holding at 0.88% of total loans, as the allowance for credit losses covered 144% of non-performing loans. Capital and profitability indicators were robust, with a return on average tangible common equity of 17.10%, a common equity tier 1 ratio of 11.22%, and higher book and tangible book value per share, even as Webster absorbed a $20 million charitable contribution, technology and human capital investments, and other one-time items while also repurchasing 3.6 million shares, underscoring management’s confidence in the bank’s financial strength and its scale-building strategy in its 90th anniversary year.

The most recent analyst rating on (WBS) stock is a Buy with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Webster Financial stock, see the WBS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Webster Financial Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer
Positive
Jan 9, 2026

On January 6, 2026, Webster Financial Corporation appointed Kristen Antonopoulos as Chief Accounting Officer, replacing Gregory S. Madar in that role while he continues as Senior Managing Director, Corporate Controller of Webster Bank. Antonopoulos brings more than 20 years of finance and accounting experience, including nearly two decades at American Express, and will join Webster’s executive compensation and benefits programs under standard corporate agreements that include change-in-control and non-competition provisions, underscoring the company’s focus on strengthening its senior financial leadership and governance framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (WBS) stock is a Buy with a $72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Webster Financial stock, see the WBS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Webster Financial Adjusts Compensation for CFO Neal Holland
Neutral
Oct 24, 2025

On October 23, 2025, Webster Financial Corporation’s Board of Directors approved compensation adjustments for Senior Executive Vice President and CFO Neal Holland. The adjustments include a $500,000 grant of restricted stock and revised salary and incentive targets, recognizing his contributions to the company’s strategic plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (WBS) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Webster Financial stock, see the WBS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 23, 2026