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Cullen/Frost Bankers
(NYSE:CFR)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$177.00
â–²(7.78% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:07/31/26
The score reflects solid underlying profitability and constructive earnings-call guidance (improving NIM/NII outlook and raised noninterest income guidance), supported by a clear uptrend in the stock price versus major moving averages. Offsetting these positives are the sharp TTM revenue contraction and mixed/volatile cash-flow signals, along with credit and funding-cost pressures highlighted on the call (NPA spike from a multifamily CRE loan and competitive deposit pricing).
Positive Factors
NII and NIM guidance
Management narrowed and raised full‑year guidance for net interest income and expects NIM to improve ~10–13 bps, implying structurally stronger core interest earnings. Sustained NIM expansion plus targeted loan growth guidance supports durable net interest income and predictable earnings contribution over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Sharp TTM revenue decline
A ~37% TTM revenue contraction and volatile cash flows reduce visibility on sustainable top-line trends and weaken predictability of funds available for lending, investment and shareholder returns. Even with solid margins, persistent revenue volatility complicates forecasting, capital allocation and long-term planning.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
NII and NIM guidance
Management narrowed and raised full‑year guidance for net interest income and expects NIM to improve ~10–13 bps, implying structurally stronger core interest earnings. Sustained NIM expansion plus targeted loan growth guidance supports durable net interest income and predictable earnings contribution over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.34B
Dividend Yield2.42%
Average Volume (3M)619.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.7
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth1.94%
EPS Growth13.72%
CountryUS
Employees6,008
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.64
Shares Outstanding62,148,785
10 Day Avg. Volume607,931
30 Day Avg. Volume619,245
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.98
Price to Book (P/B)1.77
Price to Sales (P/S)2.78
P/FCF Ratio63.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$165.92Price Target Upside1.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)10.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.41B
Cullen/Frost Bankers Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Frost Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking services in Texas. The company offers commercial banking services to corporations, including financing for industrial and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Cullen/Frost Bankers makes money primarily through (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is earned by taking in deposits and other funding at relatively lower interest costs and investing those funds into interest...
Cullen/Frost Bankers Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operating and financial picture: solid earnings and EPS growth, strong organic consumer and commercial growth, successful branch expansion, improved revenue and NIM guidance, and materially stronger noninterest income trends. Offsetting items include a QoQ rise in nonperforming assets driven by one multifamily CRE loan, an increase in unrealized securities losses, higher net charge-offs versus the prior quarter, and competitive pressures on deposit pricing and certain CRE deal structures. Management maintained constructive outlook and conservative credit commentary with targeted guidance for loan/deposit growth, expense control and buybacks.Positive Updates
Net Income and EPS Growth
Net income of $170.0M in Q2 2026, up 9.7% year-over-year; diluted EPS $2.70, up 13% from $2.39 a year ago.
Negative Updates
Increase in Nonperforming Assets
Nonperforming assets rose to $114M at quarter-end (up from $73M last quarter, a ~56% QoQ increase, and from $64M a year ago, ~78% YoY). NPAs represent 49 bps of period-end loans (vs 33 bps last quarter), driven primarily by a $54M multifamily CRE loan working through a sale (expected resolution in Q3 or Q4).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Income and EPS Growth
Net income of $170.0M in Q2 2026, up 9.7% year-over-year; diluted EPS $2.70, up 13% from $2.39 a year ago.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated full‑year 2026 guidance that assumes a 25 bp Fed hike in September (≈$2M/month benefit to NII), and now targets net interest income growth of 4.75%–5.25% with net interest margin improving about 10–13 bps versus 2025 (2025 NIM 3.66%; Q2 NIM was 3.75%), average loan growth of 7%–8% (up from 6%–7%), average deposit growth of 2%–3% (unchanged), noninterest income growth of 7.5%–8.5% (raised from 4%–5%), noninterest expense growth of 4.5%–5% (narrowed from 5%–6%), full‑year net charge‑offs of 15–20 bps of average loans, and an effective tax rate of 15.5%–16% (lowered upper bound from 16.5%); they also repurchased $90M of a $300M buyback authorization in Q2 (~655k shares) and plan roughly $1B of additional securities purchases in H2 (split between agencies and municipals), expect deposit beta to drift from ~46% toward the low‑40% range, and see July deposits running up ~3.9% annualized.Cullen/Frost Bankers Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.64B | 2.92B | 2.85B | 2.65B | 1.88B | 1.40B |
| Gross Profit | 2.27B | 2.19B | 2.00B | 1.94B | 1.69B | 1.37B |
| EBITDA | 901.42M | 859.49M | 778.78M | 788.82M | 740.17M | 558.83M |
| Net Income | 683.68M | 648.56M | 582.54M | 597.97M | 579.15M | 443.08M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 53.88B | 53.04B | 52.52B | 50.85B | 52.89B | 50.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.79B | 9.98B | 25.26B | 25.18B | 30.06B | 30.47B |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 4.77B | 4.59B | 4.36B | 4.93B | 2.99B |
| Total Liabilities | 49.26B | 48.47B | 48.62B | 47.13B | 49.76B | 46.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.62B | 4.57B | 3.90B | 3.72B | 3.14B | 4.44B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 705.68M | 127.33M | 861.76M | 320.21M | 620.08M | 582.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 719.58M | 273.98M | 989.53M | 478.85M | 722.58M | 648.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.91B | -1.60B | -180.88M | -942.75M | -8.28B | -2.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.54B | -33.09M | 738.33M | -2.88B | 3.00B | 8.17B |
Cullen/Frost Bankers Technical Analysis
Positive
164.23
Price Trends
150.89
Positive
144.08
Positive
136.87
Positive
Market Momentum
4.13
Positive
67.26
Neutral
65.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CFR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 164.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 160.92, above the 50-day MA of 150.89, and above the 200-day MA of 136.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 67.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CFR.
Cullen/Frost Bankers Risk Analysis
Cullen/Frost Bankers disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cullen/Frost Bankers reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cullen/Frost Bankers Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $10.19B | 11.68 | 10.46% | 2.15% | 27.70% | 32.69% | |
78 Outperform | $11.19B | 11.82 | 15.44% | 1.75% | 3.80% | 43.71% | |
74 Outperform | $8.64B | 14.42 | 14.39% | 1.84% | 6.89% | 3.32% | |
71 Outperform | $10.17B | 8.86 | 16.14% | 2.60% | 3.90% | 43.99% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $10.34B | 15.68 | 15.04% | 2.45% | 1.94% | 13.72% |
* Financial Sector Average
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers
166.34
44.56
36.58%
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BPOP
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175.21
62.79
55.85%
ZION
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.