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Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR)
NYSE:CFR
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Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) AI Stock Analysis

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CFR

Cullen/Frost Bankers

(NYSE:CFR)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$142.00
â–²(10.82% Upside)
Cullen/Frost Bankers' strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's profitability and successful expansion strategy outweigh concerns about cash flow and competition. Technical analysis and valuation provide a neutral to slightly positive outlook, contributing to a solid overall score.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Cullen/Frost Bankers has shown strong financial performance with EPS beating consensus expectations by 4% due to a wider net interest margin and solid loan growth.
Growth Strategy
Cullen/Frost Bankers is expanding its branch presence in Dallas and Austin, which is expected to significantly contribute to future deposit and loan growth.
Market Position
CFR is well positioned to take market share driven by its branch expansion strategy and strong calling effort.
Negative Factors
Earnings Forecast
The 2025 earnings per share estimate has been lowered due to higher expenses and slower loan growth.
Valuation Concerns
Maintain NEUTRAL solely based on valuation.

Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Cullen/Frost Bankers Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Frost Bank that offers commercial and consumer banking services in Texas. It operates in two segments, Banking and Frost Wealth Advisors. The company offers commercial banking services to corporations and other business clients, including financing for industrial and commercial properties, interim construction related to industrial and commercial properties, equipment, inventories and accounts receivables, and acquisitions; commercial leasing; and treasury management services. It also provides consumer banking services, such as checking accounts, savings programs, automated-teller machines (ATMs), overdraft facilities, installment and real estate loans, home equity loans and lines of credit, drive-in and night deposit services, safe deposit facilities, and brokerage services. In addition, the company offers international banking services comprising deposits, loans, letters of credit, foreign collections, funds, and foreign exchange services. Further, it acts as a correspondent for approximately 171 financial institutions; offers trust, investment, agency, and custodial services for individual and corporate clients; provides capital market services that include sales and trading, new issue underwriting, money market trading, advisory, and securities safekeeping and clearance; and supports international business activities. Additionally, the company offers insurance and securities brokerage services; and holds securities for investment purposes, as well as investment management services to Frost-managed mutual funds, institutions, and individuals. It operates approximately 157 financial centers and 1,650 ATMs. The company serves energy, manufacturing, services, construction, retail, telecommunications, healthcare, military, and transportation industries. Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyCullen/Frost Bankers generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is derived from the interest earned on loans and investments, minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. The company offers a variety of loan products, including residential mortgages, commercial real estate loans, and small business loans, which contribute significantly to this income stream. Additionally, non-interest income comes from fees charged for services such as wealth management, treasury management, and transaction services. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations also enhance its market presence and customer base, further contributing to its overall earnings.

Cullen/Frost Bankers Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with significant growth in earnings, loans, and deposits. The expansion strategy is yielding positive results, and the company has successfully improved its net interest margin. However, there are challenges with increased competition in lending and a rise in problem loans. Despite these challenges, the positive highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights, indicating a strong market position and positive future outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid Earnings Growth
Cullen/Frost earned $155.3 million or $2.39 a share, up from $143.8 million or $2.21 a share year-over-year.
Strong Loan and Deposit Growth
Average loans grew 7.2% year-over-year to $21.1 billion, and average deposits increased by 3.1% to $41.8 billion.
Successful Expansion Strategy
Opened 200th location, with expansion efforts generating $2.76 billion in deposits and $2.03 billion in loans. Expansion loans and deposits grew 35% and 25% year-over-year, respectively.
High Consumer Deposit Growth
Consumer deposits grew 3.7% year-over-year, with strong checking household growth at 5.4%.
Improved Net Interest Margin
Net interest margin increased by 7 basis points to 3.67%, driven by a shift to higher-yielding loans and securities.
Record Commercial Calls
Second quarter represented an all-time record for calls, with a 7% year-to-date increase.
Positive Guidance Updates
Guidance for net interest income growth revised upwards to 6%-7% for 2025, with full-year noninterest income expected to grow 3.5%-4.5%.
Negative Updates
Increased Competition in Lending
Losses to structure reached the second highest quarter ever, indicating increased competition in the market.
Rising Problem Loans
Total problem loans increased to $989 million from $889 million at year-end, mainly related to multifamily loans.
Stable Deposit Costs with Slight Increase
Cost of interest-bearing deposits was 1.93%, slightly lower than the previous quarter but indicating possible pressure if rates remain high.
Company Guidance
During the Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided several key metrics and guidance for the fiscal year. The company reported earnings of $155.3 million, or $2.39 per share, compared to $143.8 million, or $2.21 per share, in the same quarter last year. The return on average assets was 1.22%, and the return on average common equity was 15.6%. Average deposits increased by 3.1% to $41.8 billion, while average loans grew by 7.2% to $21.1 billion. The company achieved a milestone with the opening of its 200th location, having increased its number of financial centers by more than 50% since 2018. The expansion has generated $2.76 billion in deposits and $2.03 billion in loans, adding nearly 69,000 new households. Cullen/Frost expects its expansion strategy to be accretive to earnings by 2026. The company also provided guidance for the full year 2025, anticipating net interest income growth between 6% to 7%, net interest margin improvement of 12 to 15 basis points, and noninterest income growth of 3.5% to 4.5%. Additionally, full-year average loan growth is expected to be in the mid to high single digits, with average deposits increasing by 2% to 3%.

Cullen/Frost Bankers Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cullen/Frost Bankers shows strong profitability with high profit margins and efficient operations. Despite modest revenue growth, the decline in free cash flow raises concerns. The balance sheet is solid but with limited financial flexibility due to a low equity ratio.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Cullen/Frost Bankers demonstrates strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 71.19% and a net profit margin of 20.88% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Revenue growth rate is modest at 0.43%, indicating stability but limited expansion. The company maintains healthy EBIT (24.92%) and EBITDA margins (27.88%), showcasing efficient operations.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a solid equity ratio of 7.91%, indicating a conservative leverage profile with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.15. Return on Equity (ROE) is robust at 14.53%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate returns. However, the relatively low equity ratio may suggest limited financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a significant decline in free cash flow growth, down by 91.36%, which raises concerns about cash generation. However, the company maintains a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.34 and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.12, indicating adequate cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.86B2.85B2.65B1.88B1.40B1.49B
Gross Profit2.04B2.00B1.94B1.69B1.37B1.20B
EBITDA797.98M778.78M788.82M740.17M558.83M415.69M
Net Income597.77M582.54M597.97M579.15M443.08M331.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets52.00B52.52B50.85B52.89B50.88B42.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.25B25.26B25.18B30.06B30.47B20.73B
Total Debt4.72B4.59B4.36B4.93B2.99B2.35B
Total Liabilities47.89B48.62B47.13B49.76B46.44B38.10B
Stockholders Equity4.11B3.90B3.72B3.14B4.44B4.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow74.44M861.76M320.21M620.08M582.44M428.82M
Operating Cash Flow204.99M989.53M478.85M722.58M648.29M524.24M
Investing Cash Flow-2.62B-180.88M-942.75M-8.28B-2.53B-1.63B
Financing Cash Flow1.80B738.33M-2.88B3.00B8.17B7.61B

Cullen/Frost Bankers Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price128.14
Price Trends
50DMA
129.95
Negative
100DMA
126.06
Positive
200DMA
128.34
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.37
Negative
RSI
49.65
Neutral
STOCH
39.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CFR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 128.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 126.89, below the 50-day MA of 129.95, and below the 200-day MA of 128.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CFR.

Cullen/Frost Bankers Risk Analysis

Cullen/Frost Bankers disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cullen/Frost Bankers reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cullen/Frost Bankers Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$8.94B13.558.00%2.45%15.94%-0.47%
78
Outperform
$8.47B12.1612.73%2.17%6.27%45.08%
77
Outperform
$8.85B13.2411.07%4.12%-8.62%15.37%
75
Outperform
$8.38B14.0215.34%3.04%4.04%13.30%
74
Outperform
$8.34B10.3113.23%3.08%2.64%32.07%
72
Outperform
$8.08B14.6216.31%1.79%13.77%17.71%
68
Neutral
$17.80B11.8710.23%3.74%9.69%1.18%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers
128.14
22.67
21.49%
CMA
Comerica
68.86
16.03
30.34%
CBSH
Commerce Bancshares
60.58
2.77
4.79%
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
22.82
4.68
25.80%
BPOP
Popular
125.34
30.70
32.44%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
56.52
12.42
28.16%

Cullen/Frost Bankers Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cullen/Frost Bankers Highlights Strong Market Leadership
Positive
Feb 12, 2025

On December 31, 2024, Cullen/Frost Bankers released an investor presentation highlighting its financial performance and strategic positioning. The company has maintained strong market leadership in Texas, receiving top satisfaction rankings and numerous awards. Their technological advancements include a highly-rated mobile app and increased digital transactions. The presentation underscores the company’s resilience and commitment to growth in a competitive industry, which is significant for stakeholders given the robust Texas market and Cullen/Frost’s significant presence and influence.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 23, 2025