Western Alliance (WAL)
NYSE:WAL
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Western Alliance
(NYSE:WAL)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$78.00
â–²(6.73% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is led by improving fundamentals and a favorable valuation (low P/E with a dividend), supported by a generally constructive 2026 outlook from management. Offsetting these strengths are weak technicals (clear downtrend with negative momentum), unstable multi-year cash flow, and a near-term credit/headline risk from the announced $126.4M impairment event.
Positive Factors
Core Revenue and NII Strength
Sustained growth in net interest income and a 26% increase in pre-provision net revenue indicate durable core earnings power. Strong NII and PPNR provide the bank recurring internal funding for loan growth, investment and loss absorption, supporting long-term profitability versus one-off items.
Negative Factors
Material Credit Impairment and Legal Exposure
A $126.4M charge-off tied to a counterparty default is a structural credit event that reduces pre-provision earnings and consumes capital/headroom. The legal recovery outcome is uncertain; protracted litigation or additional losses could pressure capital, provisioning cadence and investor confidence over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Core Revenue and NII Strength
Sustained growth in net interest income and a 26% increase in pre-provision net revenue indicate durable core earnings power. Strong NII and PPNR provide the bank recurring internal funding for loan growth, investment and loss absorption, supporting long-term profitability versus one-off items.
Read all positive factors
Western Alliance (WAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.03B
Dividend Yield1.8%
Average Volume (3M)1.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.0
Beta (1Y)1.47
Revenue Growth6.30%
EPS Growth25.28%
CountryUS
Employees3,562
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.59
Shares Outstanding109,879,135
10 Day Avg. Volume1,370,127
30 Day Avg. Volume1,768,147
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.20
Price to Sales (P/S)1.73
P/FCF Ratio-3.27
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.28
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$90.45Price Target Upside23.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)10.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.98B
Western Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Western Alliance Bancorporation operates as the bank holding company for Western Alliance Bank that provides various banking products and related services primarily in Arizona, California, and Nevada. It operates in Commercial, Consumer Related, a...
How the Company Makes Money
Western Alliance generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and fees associated with banking services. The company offers commercial loans, residential mortgages, and consumer loans, which collectively contribute significantly ...
Western Alliance Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Western Alliance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial performance for FY2025 with multiple record metrics (NII, net revenue, PPNR, EPS), robust loan and deposit growth, meaningful operating leverage, and clear strategic momentum across specialty businesses. Management acknowledged and is proactively addressing credit work-throughs and nonaccruals, which may drive elevated charge-offs in early 2026 but are expected to improve by midyear. The 2026 outlook assumes modest rate relief and continued organic growth; key risks include timing of nonaccrual resolutions, sensitivity to rate cuts for deposit-cost relief, and lumpy fee income from settlements. Overall, the positives materially outweigh the near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Revenue and NII
Recorded net interest income of $2.9B and net revenue of $3.5B for FY2025; pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) of $1.4B. Net revenue rose 12% YoY and PPNR increased 26% YoY.
Negative Updates
Elevated Charge-offs and Near-term Credit Actions
Q4 net charge-offs $44.6M (31 bps annualized). Management expects net charge-offs to remain elevated in H1 2026 while they proactively reduce nonaccrual balances; FY2026 guidance for net charge-offs 25–35 bps.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Full-Year Revenue and NII
Recorded net interest income of $2.9B and net revenue of $3.5B for FY2025; pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) of $1.4B. Net revenue rose 12% YoY and PPNR increased 26% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s 2026 guidance assumes two 25-basis-point Fed cuts and calls for $6 billion of loan growth and $8 billion of deposit growth, with net interest income rising 11%–14% (and modest NIM expansion), noninterest income up 2%–4%, and total operating expenses increasing 2%–7%; deposit costs are expected to decline by $535 million–$585 million (with operating expenses ex-deposit costs of $1.62–$1.67 billion). Management expects net charge-offs of 25–35 basis points, a CET1 target around 11% while maintaining capital broadly in line with current levels (opportunistic share repurchases), an effective tax rate of about 19%, and continuation of the franchise’s organic momentum toward crossing $100 billion in assets by year-end 2026.Western Alliance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.28B | 5.02B | 4.26B | 2.96B | 2.00B |
| Gross Profit | 3.22B | 2.95B | 2.50B | 2.42B | 1.92B |
| EBITDA | 1.21B | 1.11B | 1.02B | 1.39B | 1.17B |
| Net Income | 969.00M | 787.70M | 722.40M | 1.06B | 899.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 92.77B | 80.93B | 70.86B | 67.73B | 55.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.03B | 8.53B | 12.74B | 8.13B | 6.71B |
| Total Debt | 6.48B | 6.63B | 8.30B | 7.38B | 2.54B |
| Total Liabilities | 84.83B | 74.23B | 64.78B | 62.38B | 51.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.65B | 6.71B | 6.08B | 5.36B | 4.96B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.79B | -2.83B | -442.90M | 2.10B | -2.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -2.68B | -2.74B | -328.60M | 2.25B | -2.65B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.96B | -5.97B | -2.16B | -13.13B | -14.71B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 12.13B | 11.23B | 3.02B | 11.41B | 15.21B |
Western Alliance Technical Analysis
Negative
73.08
Price Trends
81.11
Negative
82.52
Negative
82.02
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.52
Negative
48.31
Neutral
93.68
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 73.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.61, below the 50-day MA of 81.11, and below the 200-day MA of 82.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.68 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WAL.
Western Alliance Risk Analysis
Western Alliance disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Western Alliance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Western Alliance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $9.23B | 9.50 | 9.00% | 2.38% | 33.87% | 12.26% | |
74 Outperform | $11.32B | 9.86 | 10.70% | 2.49% | 4.78% | 21.68% | |
74 Outperform | $9.44B | 11.37 | 11.71% | 1.40% | 3.58% | 13.93% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $8.76B | 10.14 | 9.63% | 1.37% | 38.81% | 10.38% | |
62 Neutral | $8.03B | 7.96 | 13.33% | 1.80% | 6.30% | 25.28% |
* Financial Sector Average
WAL
Western Alliance
73.08
13.24
22.12%
UMBF
UMB Financial
115.04
29.71
34.81%
WBS
Webster Financial
70.22
29.56
72.71%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
140.34
46.66
49.80%
SSB
SouthState Corporation
94.15
15.56
19.80%
Western Alliance Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Western Alliance Faces Loan Default and Impairment Charge
Negative
Mar 6, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Western Alliance Bancorporation disclosed that a counterparty group led by Jefferies Financial Group and Leucadia Asset Management defaulted on a commercial loan and related forbearance agreement, refusing to pay $126.4 million o...
Business Operations and Strategy
Western Alliance Announces 2026 Investor Day Strategy Event
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
Western Alliance Bancorporation, a top-performing U.S. banking company whose main unit Western Alliance Bank delivers tailored business banking and consumer products across more than 30 industries nationwide, operates with $90 billion in assets an...
Dividends
Western Alliance declares quarterly dividends on common, preferred
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
At a Board of Directors meeting held on February 5, 2026, Western Alliance Bancorporation declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.42 per share on its common stock, payable on March 6, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 20, 2026, under...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Western Alliance Adopts Executive Stock and Bonus Deferral Plan
Neutral
Dec 22, 2025
On December 19, 2025, Western Alliance Bancorporation’s Compensation Committee approved the establishment of the Western Alliance Bancorporation Executive Stock and Bonus Deferral Plan, an unfunded, nonqualified deferred compensation arrange...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Western Alliance Expands Board with Strategic Appointments
Positive
Dec 11, 2025
On December 10, 2025, Western Alliance Bancorporation appointed Dr. Michael Papay and Mr. Clarke Starnes III to its Board of Directors, expanding the board to fifteen members. Dr. Papay, a cybersecurity expert, and Mr. Starnes, a former Chief Risk...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.