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Western Alliance (WAL)
NYSE:WAL
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Western Alliance (WAL) AI Stock Analysis

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WAL

Western Alliance

(NYSE:WAL)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$86.00
â–²(7.51% Upside)
Western Alliance's strong earnings performance and undervaluation are significant positives. However, challenges in revenue growth, cash flow management, and credit quality concerns weigh on the overall score.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue and Profitability
Record revenues indicate robust business operations and strong market demand, supporting long-term growth and profitability.
Efficiency Improvements
Improved efficiency ratios reflect better cost management and operational leverage, enhancing profitability and competitive positioning.
Solid Capital Position
A strong capital position ensures financial stability and capacity for growth, providing resilience against economic fluctuations.
Negative Factors
Credit Quality Concerns
Credit quality issues, such as fraud, can lead to financial losses and indicate potential weaknesses in risk management practices.
Cash Flow Challenges
Negative cash flows highlight liquidity issues that could affect the company's ability to invest in growth and meet financial obligations.
Deposit Cost Pressures
Rising deposit costs can erode net interest margins, impacting profitability and necessitating strategic adjustments to maintain competitiveness.

Western Alliance (WAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Western Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionWestern Alliance Bancorporation operates as the bank holding company for Western Alliance Bank that provides various banking products and related services primarily in Arizona, California, and Nevada. It operates in Commercial, Consumer Related, and Corporate & Other segments. The company offers deposit products, including checking, savings, and money market accounts, as well as fixed-rate and fixed maturity certificates of deposit accounts; and treasury management and residential mortgage products and services. It also offers commercial and industrial loan products, such as working capital lines of credit, loans to technology companies, inventory and accounts receivable lines, mortgage warehouse lines, equipment loans and leases, and other commercial loans; commercial real estate loans, which are secured by multi-family residential properties, professional offices, industrial facilities, retail centers, hotels, and other commercial properties; construction and land development loans for single family and multi-family residential projects, industrial/warehouse properties, office buildings, retail centers, medical office facilities, and residential lot developments; and consumer loans. In addition, the company provides other financial services, such as internet banking, wire transfers, electronic bill payment and presentment, lock box services, courier, and cash management services. Further, it holds certain investment securities, municipal and non-profit loans, and leases; invests primarily in low-income housing tax credits and small business investment corporations; and holds certain real estate loans and related securities. The company operates 36 branch locations, as well as loan production offices. Western Alliance Bancorporation was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
How the Company Makes MoneyWestern Alliance generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and fees associated with its banking services. The company’s key revenue streams include net interest income, which is earned from the interest differential between the loans it provides to customers and the interest it pays on deposits. Additionally, Western Alliance earns non-interest income from service charges on deposit accounts, transaction fees, and various ancillary services offered to clients. The bank also benefits from strategic partnerships with businesses and organizations that enhance its service offerings, enabling it to attract and retain a diverse customer base, further contributing to its earnings.

Western Alliance Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a strong financial performance with record revenues and significant improvements in capital and efficiency. However, challenges remain, particularly concerning credit quality issues related to fraud allegations and elevated deposit costs.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Revenue and Pre-Provision Net Revenue
Western Alliance generated record net revenue of $938 million and pre-provision net revenue of $394 million, supported by a healthy balance sheet growth with $6.1 billion in deposits.
Solid Loan and Deposit Growth
The bank saw $7 billion in loan growth and $6.1 billion in deposit growth, showcasing strong momentum across regional and national business lines.
Efficiency and Profitability Improvements
Operating leverage improved as efficiency ratio decreased to 57.4%, and the adjusted efficiency ratio excluding ECR deposit costs dropped below 50%. Return on average tangible common equity was 15.6%.
Strong Capital Position
CET1 capital improved to 11.3% with tangible book value per share climbing 13% year over year, demonstrating robust capital generation.
Negative Updates
Fraud Allegation and Credit Risk
A $98.5 million loan to Cantor Group V was found to be subject to alleged fraud, raising concerns over credit quality and resulting in a $30 million reserve.
Continued Monitoring of Asset-based Lending
Concerns were raised regarding a $168 million facility backed by $189 million in accounts receivable, though the loan remains current.
ECR Deposit Cost Pressures
ECR related deposit costs impacted non-interest expenses, with expectations to land between $140 million and $150 million in Q4, showing persistent cost pressures.
Company Guidance
During the Western Alliance Bancorporation's third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported record net revenue and pre-provision net revenue of $938 million and $394 million, respectively. The net interest income showed a 30% annualized quarter-over-quarter growth, supported by $6.1 billion in deposits and stable net interest margins. Noninterest income increased by $40 million, contributing to an improvement in the efficiency ratio to 57.4%, with an adjusted efficiency ratio below 50%. The bank's earnings per share (EPS) stood at $2.28, with a return on average assets of 1.13% and a return on average tangible common equity of 15.6%. The loan loss reserve was increased to 78 basis points, and asset quality was in line with expectations, with a 17% decline in criticized assets and net charge-offs at 22 basis points. The company addressed two notable credit relationships, including a $98.5 million non-accrual loan to Cantor Group V, which resulted in a $30 million reserve, and an ABL facility to Leucadia Asset Management, which remains secure. Overall, Western Alliance's strategic efforts in credit management and deposit growth underpin its strong financial performance and optimistic 2025 outlook.

Western Alliance Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Western Alliance shows strong profitability and operational efficiency, but faces challenges in revenue growth and cash flow management. The balance sheet is stable yet leveraged, requiring careful monitoring.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Western Alliance's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth, but the company maintains healthy gross and net profit margins. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, suggesting efficient operations. However, the negative revenue growth rate in the TTM period is a concern, indicating potential challenges in revenue generation.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio, which has improved in the TTM period. The return on equity is satisfactory, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if not managed properly.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some level of cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative growth in free cash flow and operating cash flow coverage ratio highlight liquidity concerns that need addressing.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.06B5.08B4.32B3.02B2.06B1.33B
Gross Profit3.18B3.02B2.56B2.47B1.97B1.12B
EBITDA1.20B1.11B1.02B1.39B1.17B657.10M
Net Income899.80M787.70M722.40M1.06B899.20M506.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets90.97B80.93B70.86B67.73B55.98B36.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments5.76B8.53B12.74B8.13B6.71B7.38B
Total Debt4.71B6.63B8.30B7.38B2.54B649.60M
Total Liabilities83.28B74.23B64.78B62.38B51.02B33.05B
Stockholders Equity7.40B6.71B6.08B5.36B4.96B3.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-3.32B-2.83B-442.90M2.10B-2.72B643.40M
Operating Cash Flow-3.23B-2.74B-328.60M2.25B-2.65B670.20M
Investing Cash Flow-5.57B-5.97B-2.16B-13.13B-14.71B-7.54B
Financing Cash Flow11.96B11.23B3.02B11.41B15.21B9.10B

Western Alliance Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price79.99
Price Trends
50DMA
83.57
Negative
100DMA
82.33
Negative
200DMA
79.29
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.15
Negative
RSI
51.29
Neutral
STOCH
76.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WAL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 79.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.45, below the 50-day MA of 83.57, and above the 200-day MA of 79.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for WAL.

Western Alliance Risk Analysis

Western Alliance disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Western Alliance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Western Alliance Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$8.75B12.0011.69%1.53%3.58%13.93%
76
Outperform
$9.57B10.729.95%2.85%4.90%21.68%
73
Outperform
$9.99B14.979.64%3.73%-7.07%31.09%
69
Neutral
$8.80B9.8912.79%1.98%6.30%25.28%
68
Neutral
$8.28B12.3311.06%1.42%38.81%10.38%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
66
Neutral
$8.80B12.029.32%2.60%33.87%12.26%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
WAL
Western Alliance
79.99
-11.75
-12.81%
CMA
Comerica
78.89
11.28
16.68%
UMBF
UMB Financial
108.99
-15.73
-12.61%
WBS
Webster Financial
57.56
-1.11
-1.89%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
130.62
-0.28
-0.21%
SSB
SouthState Corporation
87.85
-20.44
-18.88%

Western Alliance Corporate Events

Western Alliance Bancorporation Reports Strong Q3 Results
Oct 23, 2025

Western Alliance Bancorporation is a prominent banking company based in Phoenix, Arizona, offering a wide range of commercial banking solutions and consumer products across the United States. In its third quarter of 2025, the company reported strong financial performance with a net income of $260.5 million and earnings per share of $2.28, marking significant growth from the previous quarter and year-over-year. The company saw a notable increase in net revenue to $938.2 million, driven by a rise in net interest income and non-interest income, alongside a stable net interest margin of 3.53%. Total assets surpassed $90 billion, fueled by substantial growth in loans and deposits, while maintaining solid asset quality metrics. Looking ahead, Western Alliance Bancorporation remains focused on sustaining its growth trajectory, supported by a healthy balance sheet and strategic initiatives to enhance shareholder value.

Western Alliance Bancorporation Reports Strong Earnings Amid Challenges
Oct 23, 2025

Western Alliance Bancorporation’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust financial health, marked by record revenues and notable improvements in capital and efficiency. Despite these achievements, the company faces ongoing challenges, particularly in managing credit quality issues linked to fraud allegations and rising deposit costs.

Legal Proceedings
Western Alliance Files Lawsuit Against Cantor Group
Negative
Oct 16, 2025

In August, Western Alliance Bank initiated a lawsuit against Cantor Group V, LLC, alleging fraud related to a revolving credit facility secured by commercial real estate loans. Despite these allegations, the bank believes the existing collateral is adequate to cover the obligations. The company maintains its financial outlook for 2025, noting that its criticized assets have decreased since June 30, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (WAL) stock is a Buy with a $118.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Alliance stock, see the WAL Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
Western Alliance Announces $300 Million Share Buyback
Positive
Sep 12, 2025

On September 12, 2025, Western Alliance Bancorporation announced a $300 million share repurchase program authorized by its Board of Directors. This initiative reflects the company’s strong business momentum and capital position, aiming to enhance shareholder returns and mitigate share price volatility. The repurchase program allows for flexibility in purchasing shares through various transaction methods, with the timing and amount of repurchases dependent on market conditions and other factors.

The most recent analyst rating on (WAL) stock is a Buy with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Western Alliance stock, see the WAL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 06, 2025