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UMB Financial
(NASDAQ:UMBF)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$165.00
â–²(16.86% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
UMBF scores well primarily on solid financial performance (profitability and strong recent cash generation, with improved leverage/capital position) and a positive earnings-call backdrop highlighting operating leverage, efficiency, and strong loan/funding trends. Technicals support the view with an established uptrend versus major moving averages, while valuation is neutral-to-slightly positive given a reasonable P/E but modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Loan Growth Momentum
Sustained, high-rate loan production meaningfully expands earning assets and NII over coming quarters. Geographic and sector breadth (C&I strength in Texas, growth in CA, CO, UT, St. Louis) implies the growth is structural, supporting durable revenue and scale for treasury and lending franchises.
Negative Factors
NIM Reliance on Accretion
A meaningful portion of reported margin is tied to nonrecurring purchase-accounting accretion that will roll off over time. If organic core NIM improvements don’t offset declining accretion, reported margins and NII could compress over the next 2–6 months absent continued loan repricing or funding gains.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loan Growth Momentum
Sustained, high-rate loan production meaningfully expands earning assets and NII over coming quarters. Geographic and sector breadth (C&I strength in Texas, growth in CA, CO, UT, St. Louis) implies the growth is structural, supporting durable revenue and scale for treasury and lending franchises.
Read all positive factors
UMB Financial (UMBF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.07B
Dividend Yield1.16%
Average Volume (3M)700.01K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth28.55%
EPS Growth37.78%
CountryUS
Employees5,222
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)12.21
Shares Outstanding75,950,030
10 Day Avg. Volume574,018
30 Day Avg. Volume700,011
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio7.54
Price to Book (P/B)1.14
Price to Sales (P/S)1.97
P/FCF Ratio8.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$164.90Price Target Upside16.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)13.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.99B
UMB Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UMB Financial Corporation serves as the holding company for UMB Bank, delivering a comprehensive array of banking and financial solutions. Its Commercial Banking division provides businesses with essential services, including commercial loans, cre...
How the Company Makes Money
UMB Financial primarily earns revenue through a mix of traditional banking income and fee-based financial services. A core driver is net interest income: the company collects interest on earning assets (such as commercial and consumer loans and se...
UMB Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operating and financial positives: robust loan production and linked-quarter loan growth, margin expansion on a core basis, improved deposit funding costs, significant AUA growth and fee momentum, solid capital build and buyback activity, and continued operating leverage and efficiency gains. The primary cautions were muted quarter-to-quarter deposit growth due to seasonality, a meaningful portion of reported NIM tied to purchase-accounting accretion (a nonrecurring benefit), a modest provision tied to loan balance growth, a slight uptick in near-term expenses driven by seasonal and merit-cycle items, and the need to manage external perceptions around private credit exposure. Overall, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, reflecting strong organic growth and disciplined execution, with manageable and disclosed headwinds.Positive Updates
Robust Loan Growth and Production
10.8% linked-quarter annualized loan growth driven by $2.3 billion in gross production; period-end loan balances increased by $1.4 billion, supporting growth momentum and pipeline strength across multiple regions.
Negative Updates
Muted Overall Deposit Growth and Seasonality
Average deposits were essentially flat for the quarter. Seasonality (public fund outflows for tax payments) and episodic institutional flows caused quarter-to-quarter variability, limiting deposit growth despite DDA increases on an annualized basis.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Robust Loan Growth and Production
10.8% linked-quarter annualized loan growth driven by $2.3 billion in gross production; period-end loan balances increased by $1.4 billion, supporting growth momentum and pipeline strength across multiple regions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance highlighted Q2 operating expense roughly in line with consensus at $383 million and an expected 2026 effective tax rate of 20–22%, with core net interest margin expected to be relatively flat sequentially (reported NIM was 3.38% in Q1; core margin 3.05% excl. the ~33 bps accretion benefit this quarter). They project contractual accretion of about $71 million for the remainder of 2026 and $79 million for 2027 (with almost $600 million of pretax accretion remaining, roughly $6 of EPS and ~100 bps of capital), reaffirm expect positive operating leverage for full‑year 2026 (Q1 operating leverage +0.4% q/q) and an operating efficiency ratio of 47.6% (operating ROTCE +155 bps). Other key metrics and context included CET1 of 11.16% (+20 bps q/q), $2.3 billion of gross loan production driving 10.8% linked‑quarter annualized loan growth (period‑end loans +$1.4B, provision $27M, net charge‑offs 19 bps), Q1 noninterest income $204.8M (adjusted ~ $198M), AUA $565B (+~$20B q/q) with $43B tied to private credit (7.6%, ~$13M annualized fees = 1.6% of annualized Q1 fee income), average customer funding +$702M q/q, cost of total deposits down 19 bps to 2.06% (cost of interest‑bearing deposits down 24 bps to 2.79%) and a blended deposit beta of ~70%.UMB Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.56B | 4.44B | 2.64B | 2.24B | 1.58B | 1.24B |
| Gross Profit | 2.67B | 2.42B | 1.41B | 1.28B | 1.32B | 1.18B |
| EBITDA | 1.13B | 1.06B | 594.04M | 480.32M | 586.03M | 484.81M |
| Net Income | 942.68M | 702.40M | 441.24M | 350.02M | 431.68M | 353.02M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 72.26B | 73.09B | 50.41B | 44.01B | 38.51B | 42.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 779.88M | 952.55M | 16.33B | 12.68B | 8.69B | 21.23B |
| Total Debt | 3.56B | 3.80B | 3.00B | 3.50B | 2.60B | 3.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 64.22B | 65.40B | 46.94B | 40.91B | 35.85B | 39.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.03B | 7.69B | 3.47B | 3.10B | 2.67B | 3.15B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.06B | 978.11M | 201.08M | 445.69M | 717.84M | 500.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.09B | 1.03B | 225.29M | 472.60M | 769.55M | 534.08M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.91B | -5.62B | -3.26B | -1.27B | -3.85B | -4.24B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 715.58M | 3.92B | 5.96B | 4.77B | -4.58B | 9.42B |
UMB Financial Technical Analysis
Positive
141.20
Price Trends
138.64
Positive
129.24
Positive
122.88
Positive
Market Momentum
1.79
Positive
58.98
Neutral
69.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UMBF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 141.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 144.18, above the 50-day MA of 138.64, and above the 200-day MA of 122.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.79 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UMBF.
UMB Financial Risk Analysis
UMB Financial disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UMB Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
UMB Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $10.19B | 11.68 | 10.46% | 2.15% | 27.70% | 32.69% | |
78 Outperform | $11.19B | 11.82 | 15.44% | 1.75% | 3.80% | 43.71% | |
77 Outperform | $11.07B | 12.06 | 8.58% | 1.20% | 28.55% | 37.78% | |
76 Outperform | $10.76B | 12.63 | 12.33% | 1.32% | 5.67% | 17.55% | |
71 Outperform | $10.17B | 8.86 | 16.14% | 2.60% | 3.90% | 43.99% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
UMBF
UMB Financial
147.04
38.04
34.90%
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
26.85
6.59
32.49%
BPOP
Popular
173.65
61.23
54.46%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
161.76
38.78
31.54%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
70.84
19.73
38.60%
UMB Financial Corporate Events
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
UMB Financial posts strong Q2 results, boosts dividends
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
On July 28, 2026, UMB Financial reported strong second-quarter 2026 results, with GAAP net income available to common shareholders rising 26.2% year over year to $271.8 million, or $3.56 per diluted share, on revenue of $778.0 million. Performance...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
UMB Financial shareholders back directors and compensation plans
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
At its annual meeting of shareholders held on April 28, 2026, UMB Financial reported that a quorum was present, with 70,379,421 of 76,136,588 eligible shares represented in person or by proxy. Shareholders elected all 14 director nominees to serve...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.