UMB Financial (UMBF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.08B
• Dividend Yield: 1.37%
• Average Volume (3M): 534.09K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: 38.81%
• EPS Growth: 10.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,698
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 3.08
• Shares Outstanding: 75,954,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 437,226
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 534,085
• PEG Ratio: 7.50
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.14
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 49.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.99
• 1Y Price Target: $144.44
• Price Target Upside: 24.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 11.98
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.87B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $133.00 ▲(14.77% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by solid operating performance and balance-sheet improvement, but held back by notably weak cash-flow trends. Earnings-call commentary and guidance were broadly constructive (growth, credit, and operating leverage) with identifiable headwinds from fading accretion/nonrecurring gains. Valuation is supportive, while technical indicators point to near-term momentum weakness.

Positive Factors

Strong Loan Growth

Consistent, high loan production (13% linked-quarter annualized, $2.6B quarterly) drives durable net interest income and supports scalable revenue. Sustained commercial lending momentum strengthens franchise positioning and cross-sell opportunities, underpinning multi-quarter earnings growth if credit remains sound.

Improved Balance-Sheet Leverage

A materially lower debt-to-equity (~0.49) and a stronger equity base afford greater financial flexibility and lower leverage risk. That structural improvement supports capital return, M&A optionality, and resilience to shocks, while reducing refinancing and liquidity pressure over the coming quarters.

Low Credit Losses & Asset Quality

Below-trend net charge-offs and modest NPAs indicate high loan portfolio quality and conservative underwriting. Persistent low credit losses support sustainable earnings and lower provision volatility, enabling the bank to allocate earnings toward growth investments and capital returns over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash-Flow Generation

A sharp decline in operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow growth signal weaker cash conversion and higher volatility in internally generated liquidity. This structural cash-flow erosion constrains flexible capital deployment, elevates sensitivity to funding stress, and could limit pace of buybacks or extra dividends.

NIM Reliance on Purchase Accounting Accretion

A meaningful portion of reported NIM is tied to purchase-accounting accretion which is set to decline materially in 2026–27. As accretion fades, structural core margin pressure may emerge unless organic NIM improvement or funding gains offset the loss, creating a multi-quarter earnings headwind.

Fee Income Volatility & Nonrecurring Gains

Reliance on one-off investment gains and market-sensitive fee components reduces recurring revenue stability. If markets or transaction volumes soften, fee income may underperform, making revenue less predictable and increasing earnings volatility across the next several quarters.

UMB Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

UMB Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for the UMB Bank that provides various banking and other financial services. The Commercial Banking segment provides commercial loans and credit card; commercial real estate financing; letters of credit; loan syndication, and consultative service; various business solutions including asset-based lending, accounts receivable financing, mezzanine debt, and minority equity investment; and treasury management service, such as depository service, account reconciliation, cash management tool, accounts payable and receivable solution, electronic fund transfer and automated payment, controlled disbursement, lockbox service, and remote deposit capture service. The Institutional Banking segment offers asset management and healthcare service provided to institutional client; and fund administration and accounting, investor service and transfer agency, marketing and distribution, custody, alternative investment service, fixed income sale, trading and underwriting, and corporate trust and escrow service, as well as institutional custody service. This segment also provides healthcare payment solution includes custodial service for health saving accounts and private label, multipurpose debit cards to insurance carriers, third-party administrator, software companies, employers, and financial institutions. The Personal Banking segment offers deposit account, retail credit card, private banking, installment loan, home equity line of credit, residential mortgage, and small business loan, as well as internet banking, ATM network, private banking, brokerage and insurance service, and advisory and trust service. It operates through a network of branches and offices in the states of Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, Illinois, Oklahoma, Texas, Arizona, Nebraska, Iowa, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Indiana, Utah, Minnesota, California, and Wisconsin. The company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

UMB Financial generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company earns income from net interest, which is derived from the interest earned on loans and investments minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. Additionally, UMB generates non-interest income through service fees, asset management fees, and investment banking activities. The company also benefits from its wealth management services, where it charges fees for investment advisory services and portfolio management. Strategic partnerships with various businesses and organizations enhance UMB's service offerings and customer base, contributing to its overall earnings. Economic factors such as interest rates and market conditions also play a significant role in shaping its revenue performance.

UMB Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (revenue growth and healthy profitability) and improving leverage support the profile, but the weak cash-flow performance is a major offset: operating cash flow stepped down materially and free cash flow growth was deeply negative, raising cash-conversion and volatility concerns.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded strongly into 2025 (2025 revenue up ~10% to $4.44B following solid growth in 2024), and profitability remains healthy with a ~16% net margin and ~20% EBIT margin in 2025. However, margins have compressed materially versus 2021–2022 (when net margins were ~27–28%), suggesting a less favorable earnings mix and/or higher costs versus the peak period.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks more conservative recently, with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.49 in 2025 (down from >1.0 in 2021–2023), which strengthens balance-sheet flexibility. The trade-off is profitability on equity has cooled (ROE ~9% in 2025 vs. low-to-mid teens earlier), and total debt rose in 2025 versus 2024, which bears monitoring despite the stronger equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened sharply: operating cash flow fell to ~$178M in 2025 from ~$225M in 2024 and ~$473M in 2023, and free cash flow growth was deeply negative in 2025. While free cash flow still roughly matched reported earnings in 2025 based on the provided ratio, the very low cash-flow coverage metric and the step-down in operating cash flow raise concerns about near-term cash conversion and volatility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.44B	2.64B	2.24B	1.58B	1.24B
Gross Profit	2.42B	1.41B	1.28B	1.32B	1.18B
EBITDA	1.06B	594.04M	480.32M	586.03M	484.81M
Net Income	702.40M	441.24M	350.02M	431.68M	353.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	73.09B	50.41B	44.01B	38.51B	42.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	952.55M	16.33B	12.68B	8.69B	21.23B
Total Debt	3.80B	3.00B	3.50B	2.60B	3.51B
Total Liabilities	65.40B	46.94B	40.91B	35.85B	39.55B
Stockholders Equity	7.69B	3.47B	3.10B	2.67B	3.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	177.66M	201.08M	445.69M	717.84M	500.39M
Operating Cash Flow	177.66M	225.29M	472.60M	769.55M	534.08M
Investing Cash Flow	-56.82M	-3.26B	-1.27B	-3.85B	-4.24B
Financing Cash Flow	61.74M	5.96B	4.77B	-4.58B	9.42B

UMB Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 115.88
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UMBF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 115.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 127.37, below the 50-day MA of 123.41, and above the 200-day MA of 114.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UMBF.

UMB Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BPOP	75 Outperform	$9.35B	11.40	14.05%	2.31%	5.87%	53.36%
WTFC	74 Outperform	$9.97B	13.06	12.11%	1.40%	3.58%	13.93%
ONB	73 Outperform	$9.34B	13.42	9.02%	2.43%	20.72%	3.63%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ZION	66 Neutral	$8.74B	9.85	13.35%	2.97%	0.12%	27.30%
UMBF	65 Neutral	$9.08B	12.88	12.59%	1.37%	38.81%	10.38%

UMB Financial Corporate Events

UMB Financial Adopts New Executive Change-in-Control Agreements

On February 9, 2026, UMB Financial Corporation’s Compensation Committee approved new Change in Control Agreements for its named executive officers, establishing severance protections if their employment is terminated without cause or for good reason in connection with a corporate change in control. The agreements run through December 31, 2026, with automatic one-year renewals unless timely non-renewal notice is given, and non-renewal is restricted once a change in control transaction is formally pursued or publicly announced.

Under these Change in Control Agreements, executives terminated in the qualifying period around a change in control may receive lump-sum cash severance equal to 3x compensation for the chief executives and 2x for other named officers, a pro-rated target bonus, 18 months of health coverage premiums, optional outplacement services, and full acceleration of outstanding equity awards, with performance awards vesting at the greater of target or actual performance. These measures strengthen executive protections during potential merger or acquisition activity, which can support management stability but may also influence the cost structure and governance dynamics faced by shareholders and potential acquirers.

The most recent analyst rating on (UMBF) stock is a Hold with a $130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UMB Financial stock, see the UMBF Stock Forecast page.

UMB Financial Declares Quarterly Common and Preferred Dividends

On January 27, 2026, UMB Financial’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.43 per share on its common stock, payable April 1, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 10, 2026. The board also approved a dividend of $193.75 per share on its Series B 7.750% preferred stock, or $0.484375 per depositary share, payable April 15, 2026, to preferred shareholders of record as of March 31, 2026, underscoring the company’s continued capital return to both common and preferred equity holders.

The most recent analyst rating on (UMBF) stock is a Buy with a $138.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UMB Financial stock, see the UMBF Stock Forecast page.