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Umb Financial Corp. (UMBF)
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UMB Financial (UMBF) AI Stock Analysis

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UMBF

UMB Financial

(NASDAQ:UMBF)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$125.00
â–²(12.35% Upside)
The overall score reflects UMB Financial’s strong earnings performance and valuation, supported by positive financial and technical indicators. The company's ability to manage cost and leverage, along with successful integration of acquisitions, contributes positively. However, challenges in revenue consistency and cash flow conversion are areas to watch.
Positive Factors
Revenue Structure
UMBF generates approximately 40% of revenue from fee income, nearly double the peer average, which provides revenue downside support.
Risk Management
Management’s conservative credit culture and robust risk management practices will help mitigate losses.
Valuation
The combination of top quartile credit performance, interest rate defensibility, and improving liquidity profile suggests shares should trade at a higher valuation.
Negative Factors
Acquisition Concerns
Concerns exist that the acquisition of Heartland Financial will be less accretive than originally advertised.
Earnings Outlook
The EPS outlook has been lowered modestly, driven by the waning Heartland Financial balance sheet and increased proforma expense base.
Valuation Expansion
Valuation expansion is less likely until trends prove themselves in the coming quarters.

UMB Financial (UMBF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

UMB Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) is a diversified financial services holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri. It operates primarily through its subsidiary, UMB Bank, offering a comprehensive range of banking and financial services to individual, business, and institutional clients. The company's core services include commercial banking, personal banking, asset management, and payment solutions. UMB Financial serves clients across various sectors, including healthcare, real estate, agribusiness, and energy.
How the Company Makes MoneyUMB Financial makes money through multiple revenue streams, primarily driven by its commercial and personal banking operations. The company generates income from interest on loans and credit products offered to businesses and individuals. Additionally, it earns revenue from fees associated with various banking services, such as account maintenance, transaction processing, and payment solutions. UMB Financial also benefits from its asset management and trust services, which provide investment management and advisory services, generating management fees and commissions. Furthermore, the company's revenue is supplemented by its initiative in treasury and cash management solutions for businesses, contributing to its overall financial performance. UMB Financial's earnings are significantly influenced by its expansive network, client relationships, and ability to cross-sell services across its diverse financial product offerings.

UMB Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 1.15%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presents a strong performance in terms of net income, investment gains, and loan and deposit growth, despite challenges related to the integration of Heartland and seasonal deposit pressures. The successful pilot conversion and preferred stock offering further contribute to a positive outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Net Income and Operating Performance
Reported net income available for common shareholders was $215.4 million, with a strong net operating income of $225.4 million or $2.96 per share, excluding acquisition expenses and nonrecurring items.
Significant Investment Gains
A $37.7 million pretax gain on prior investments, including a $29.4 million gain from Voyager Technologies, with a multiple on invested capital of 5.8x and an internal rate of return of 59%.
Loan and Deposit Growth
Average loans increased by 12.7% to $36.4 billion, and average deposits grew by 10.7% to $55.6 billion, reflecting solid organic growth and the impact of Heartland operations.
Improved Credit Metrics
Net charge-offs for the quarter were 17 basis points, with total nonperforming loans to total loans improving by 2 basis points to 26 basis points.
Successful Pilot Conversion of Heartland
Successfully executed a pilot conversion of Heartland's Minnesota franchise onto the core UMB platform, positioning well for full conversion in mid-October.
Preferred Stock Offering
Completed an offering of Series B preferred stock, netting $294 million of Tier 1 capital, and redeemed $115 million in outstanding Series A preferred stock.
Negative Updates
Acquisition and Integration Challenges
The ongoing process of aligning the Heartland portfolio with UMB standards, which may continue to result in some credit realignments.
Seasonal Deposit Pressure
Expected mid-single-digit contraction in DDA balances in the third quarter due to seasonal factors, affecting deposit growth.
Expense Growth
Operating expenses increased by $21.3 million, driven by a full quarter of expenses for new Heartland associates and significant charitable contributions.
Company Guidance
During the UMB Financial Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance on various financial metrics for the upcoming quarters. UMB reported a strong net income available for common shareholders of $215.4 million, including $13.5 million in acquisition expenses, and a net operating income of $225.4 million or $2.96 per share when excluding nonrecurring items. The company highlighted a significant $37.7 million pretax gain from prior investments, with a notable $29.4 million gain from its investment in Voyager Technologies. UMB's average loans increased by 12.7% to $36.4 billion, while average deposits rose by 10.7% to $55.6 billion. The core net interest margin expanded by 8 basis points, and the company expects the third-quarter margin to remain flat. Credit metrics showed improvement, with net charge-offs at 17 basis points and nonperforming loans improving to 26 basis points. UMB also completed an offering of Series B preferred stock, netting $294 million in Tier 1 capital, and anticipates further cost savings from the Heartland acquisition in the fourth and first quarters. Looking ahead, the effective tax rate for the full year 2025 is expected to be between 19% and 21%.

UMB Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
UMB Financial demonstrates strengths in cost management and a stable balance sheet with low leverage. However, challenges include inconsistent revenue growth and free cash flow, impacting the company's financial flexibility. Continued focus on improving profitability margins and cash flow conversion will be crucial for future stability and growth.
Income Statement
70
Positive
UMB Financial shows a strong gross profit margin indicating effective cost management, but the net profit margin has been fluctuating due to varying net income. The revenue growth rate is inconsistent, with a recent decline in TTM revenues compared to the previous annual report, which needs monitoring. EBIT and EBITDA margins have been absent or inconsistent, impacting profitability analysis.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company maintains a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting prudent financial leverage. Return on equity is satisfactory, but improvement is needed to enhance shareholder value. The equity ratio indicates a stable asset base relative to equity, although there could be potential risks if liabilities increase significantly.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
The cash flow statement reveals inconsistent free cash flow growth, with a recent decrease in free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively healthy, but the free cash flow to net income ratio indicates the need for improved cash flow conversion. Attention is needed to ensure healthy cash flow growth and liquidity.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.85B2.64B2.24B1.58B1.24B1.30B
Gross Profit1.48B1.41B1.28B1.32B1.18B1.09B
EBITDA568.77M594.04M480.32M586.03M484.81M401.69M
Net Income412.32M441.24M350.02M431.68M353.02M286.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets69.35B50.41B44.01B38.51B42.69B33.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments21.62B16.33B12.68B8.69B21.23B12.84B
Total Debt3.21B3.00B3.50B2.60B3.51B2.59B
Total Liabilities62.60B46.94B40.91B35.85B39.55B30.11B
Stockholders Equity6.75B3.47B3.10B2.67B3.15B3.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow501.51M201.08M445.69M717.84M500.39M313.38M
Operating Cash Flow532.16M225.29M472.60M769.55M534.08M373.60M
Investing Cash Flow-2.76B-3.26B-1.27B-3.85B-4.24B-4.49B
Financing Cash Flow5.89B5.96B4.77B-4.58B9.42B5.95B

UMB Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price111.26
Price Trends
50DMA
106.19
Positive
100DMA
102.26
Positive
200DMA
108.27
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.05
Positive
RSI
59.30
Neutral
STOCH
51.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UMBF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 111.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 109.48, above the 50-day MA of 106.19, and above the 200-day MA of 108.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UMBF.

UMB Financial Risk Analysis

UMB Financial disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UMB Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

UMB Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$8.42B11.8011.60%1.53%4.30%10.10%
77
Outperform
$7.74B9.6313.28%3.26%2.64%32.56%
77
Outperform
$8.45B12.6910.05%1.47%30.40%12.40%
76
Outperform
$8.69B12.9611.07%4.26%-8.62%15.37%
70
Neutral
$6.32B12.067.02%3.49%3.66%20.33%
68
Neutral
$6.95B11.879.32%1.09%10.19%48.39%
67
Neutral
$17.01B11.609.79%3.95%10.63%1.62%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
UMBF
UMB Financial
111.26
18.15
19.49%
CMA
Comerica
67.60
17.52
34.98%
PNFP
Pinnacle Financial Partners
89.55
3.20
3.71%
PB
Prosperity Bancshares
66.31
-1.63
-2.40%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
124.85
27.85
28.71%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
52.47
7.80
17.46%

UMB Financial Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
UMB Financial Reports Strong Q2 2025 Earnings Growth
Positive
Jul 29, 2025

On July 29, 2025, UMB Financial Corporation announced its second quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a significant increase in net income available to common shareholders to $215.4 million, a 112.5% rise compared to the previous year. This growth was driven by strong balance sheet expansion, improved asset quality, and successful integration of the Heartland Financial acquisition. The company also declared dividends for both common and preferred stock, reflecting its robust financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (UMBF) stock is a Hold with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UMB Financial stock, see the UMBF Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
UMB Financial Redeems Series A Preferred Stock
Neutral
Jul 15, 2025

On July 15, 2025, UMB Financial Corporation filed a Termination of Certificate of Designation to eliminate its 7.00% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A, from its Restated Articles of Incorporation. On the same date, the company completed the redemption of all outstanding shares of this Series A Preferred Stock, impacting its capital structure and potentially its financial strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (UMBF) stock is a Hold with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UMB Financial stock, see the UMBF Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingDividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
UMB Financial Issues New Preferred Stock Series B
Neutral
Jun 12, 2025

On June 12, 2025, UMB Financial Corporation issued 12,000,000 depositary shares, each representing a 1/400th ownership interest in a share of 7.750% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series B. This issuance was part of a Deposit Agreement with Computershare Trust Company, N.A. and Computershare Inc. The Certificate of Designation, filed on June 11, 2025, and effective June 12, 2025, outlines the rights and restrictions associated with the Series B Preferred Stock, impacting the company’s dividend and stock repurchase policies.

The most recent analyst rating on (UMBF) stock is a Hold with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UMB Financial stock, see the UMBF Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
UMB Financial Announces Redemption of Preferred Stock
Neutral
Jun 12, 2025

On June 12, 2025, UMB Financial Corporation announced it will redeem all outstanding shares of its 7.000% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A, at $10,000 per share. The redemption, set for July 15, 2025, will cease dividend accruals on the shares, impacting stakeholders holding the Series A Preferred Stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (UMBF) stock is a Hold with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UMB Financial stock, see the UMBF Stock Forecast page.

Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
UMB Financial Announces Public Offering of Depositary Shares
Neutral
May 30, 2025

On May 29, 2025, UMB Financial Corporation announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 12,000,000 depositary shares, each representing a 1/400th interest in its Series B Preferred Stock. The offering, expected to close on June 12, 2025, aims to raise approximately $294.5 million, which UMB plans to use for general corporate purposes, including potential redemption of its Series A Preferred Stock and other financial instruments. The depositary shares will be listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol ‘UMBFO’, with RBC Capital Markets, LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC acting as joint book-running managers.

The most recent analyst rating on (UMBF) stock is a Hold with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on UMB Financial stock, see the UMBF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 01, 2025