UMB Financial Corp (UMBF)
NASDAQ:UMBF
Top Page
UMB Financial
(NASDAQ:UMBF)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$133.00
â–²(10.09% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by solid operating performance and balance-sheet improvement, but held back by notably weak cash-flow trends. Earnings-call commentary and guidance were broadly constructive (growth, credit, and operating leverage) with identifiable headwinds from fading accretion/nonrecurring gains. Valuation is supportive, while technical indicators point to near-term momentum weakness.
Positive Factors
Strong Loan Growth
Consistent, high loan production (13% linked-quarter annualized, $2.6B quarterly) drives durable net interest income and supports scalable revenue. Sustained commercial lending momentum strengthens franchise positioning and cross-sell opportunities, underpinning multi-quarter earnings growth if credit remains sound.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash-Flow Generation
A sharp decline in operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow growth signal weaker cash conversion and higher volatility in internally generated liquidity. This structural cash-flow erosion constrains flexible capital deployment, elevates sensitivity to funding stress, and could limit pace of buybacks or extra dividends.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Loan Growth
Consistent, high loan production (13% linked-quarter annualized, $2.6B quarterly) drives durable net interest income and supports scalable revenue. Sustained commercial lending momentum strengthens franchise positioning and cross-sell opportunities, underpinning multi-quarter earnings growth if credit remains sound.
Read all positive factors
UMB Financial (UMBF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.20B
Dividend Yield1.37%
Average Volume (3M)556.45K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.4
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth38.81%
EPS Growth10.38%
CountryUS
Employees3,698
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.08
Shares Outstanding76,136,590
10 Day Avg. Volume474,586
30 Day Avg. Volume556,451
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio7.50
Price to Book (P/B)1.14
Price to Sales (P/S)1.97
P/FCF Ratio8.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$142.17Price Target Upside17.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)12.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.89B
UMB Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UMB Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for the UMB Bank that provides various banking and other financial services. The Commercial Banking segment provides commercial loans and credit card; commercial real estate financing;...
How the Company Makes Money
UMB Financial generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company earns income from net interest, which is derived from the interest earned on loans and investments minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. Additionally...
UMB Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum: record earnings, robust loan production (13% linked-quarter annualized), improving core margin, low credit losses (Q4 NCOs 13 bps; FY 23 bps), and successful integration of the Heartland acquisition with early synergy and product expansion wins. Near-term headwinds include merger-related one-time costs, a decline in some fee income components (market-driven), deposit flow variability, a projected reduction in purchase accounting accretion and certain nonrecurring investment gains that supported 2025. Management reiterated disciplined expense control, positive operating leverage targets for 2026, and a conservative M&A posture. Overall, the positive results, high-quality credit trends, capital build and organic growth prospects substantially outweigh the modest and largely transient lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Earnings and Strong Quarterly Profitability
Reported Q4 net income available to common shareholders of $209.5M ($2.74/share), up 16.1% from Q3; full-year 2025 net income $684.6M ($9.29/share). Net operating income (ex acquisition and nonrecurring items) was $235.2M ($3.08/share).
Negative Updates
Noninterest Income Pressure from Market-Related Variances
Fee income (ex valuation changes) was $196.2M, down $11.2M from Q3. Largest drivers included $9.2M market-related variances in COLI/BOLI income and a $2.9M decline in derivative income; market value loss on Voyager stock of $4.8M in the quarter (largely monetized by sale).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Earnings and Strong Quarterly Profitability
Reported Q4 net income available to common shareholders of $209.5M ($2.74/share), up 16.1% from Q3; full-year 2025 net income $684.6M ($9.29/share). Net operating income (ex acquisition and nonrecurring items) was $235.2M ($3.08/share).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to steady margins and positive operating leverage in 2026 while flagging several specific metrics: Q4 reported NIM was 3.29% (core NIM 2.96%; adjusted margin 2.92% excluding ~33 bps of purchase-accounting accretion and a 4‑bp one‑off), and they expect Q1 margins to be relatively flat with no assumed upside from additional cuts; contractual accretion is projected at $126M for 2026 and $92M for 2027 (Q4 accretion benefit was $52.7M, ~33 bps to NIM), though they expect roughly $38M less contractual accretion in 2026 and noted ~$30M of 2025 investment gains are nonrecurring. First‑quarter operating expense is guided to $385–$390M (including an estimated $15M of higher FICA/payroll/401(k) costs), with about $10M of that seasonal payroll tax pressure expected to abate in Q2; management reaffirms the goal of positive operating leverage for the year. Balance sheet and credit commentary pointed to continued loan momentum (Q4 annualized loan growth 13%, quarterly loan production $2.6B), deposit strength (Q4 average deposits +5.6% linked‑quarter annualized; DDA linked‑quarter annualized +24.9%), a blended deposit beta of 76%, cost of total deposits down to 2.25% and cost of interest‑bearing deposits to 3.03%, Q4 net charge‑offs 13 bps (FY25 23 bps vs. long‑term avg 27 bps), NPAs $145M (37 bps), CET1 at 10.6% (Dec 31), and an expected effective tax rate of 20–22% for 2026.UMB Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.44B | 2.64B | 2.24B | 1.58B | 1.24B |
| Gross Profit | 2.42B | 1.41B | 1.28B | 1.32B | 1.18B |
| EBITDA | 1.06B | 594.04M | 480.32M | 586.03M | 484.81M |
| Net Income | 702.40M | 441.24M | 350.02M | 431.68M | 353.02M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 73.09B | 50.41B | 44.01B | 38.51B | 42.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 952.55M | 16.33B | 12.68B | 8.69B | 21.23B |
| Total Debt | 3.80B | 3.00B | 3.50B | 2.60B | 3.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 65.40B | 46.94B | 40.91B | 35.85B | 39.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.69B | 3.47B | 3.10B | 2.67B | 3.15B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 978.11M | 201.08M | 445.69M | 717.84M | 500.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.03B | 225.29M | 472.60M | 769.55M | 534.08M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.62B | -3.26B | -1.27B | -3.85B | -4.24B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.92B | 5.96B | 4.77B | -4.58B | 9.42B |
UMB Financial Technical Analysis
Positive
120.81
Price Trends
119.31
Positive
117.52
Positive
115.13
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.31
Negative
63.70
Neutral
88.53
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UMBF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 120.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 112.15, above the 50-day MA of 119.31, and above the 200-day MA of 115.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.53 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UMBF.
UMB Financial Risk Analysis
UMB Financial disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UMB Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
UMB Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $9.56B | 8.78 | 13.82% | 2.31% | 5.87% | 53.36% | |
74 Outperform | $9.92B | 11.37 | 11.71% | 1.40% | 3.58% | 13.93% | |
73 Outperform | $9.21B | 12.93 | 8.51% | 2.43% | 20.72% | 3.63% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $9.14B | 9.58 | 13.33% | 2.97% | 0.12% | 27.30% | |
65 Neutral | $9.20B | 12.43 | 9.63% | 1.37% | 38.81% | 10.38% |
* Financial Sector Average
UMBF
UMB Financial
120.81
33.95
39.09%
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
23.64
5.79
32.41%
BPOP
Popular
146.82
66.52
82.84%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
147.43
51.61
53.86%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
61.77
20.68
50.31%
UMB Financial Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
UMB Financial Adopts New Executive Change-in-Control Agreements
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
On February 9, 2026, UMB Financial Corporation’s Compensation Committee approved new Change in Control Agreements for its named executive officers, establishing severance protections if their employment is terminated without cause or for goo...
Dividends
UMB Financial Declares Quarterly Common and Preferred Dividends
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
On January 27, 2026, UMB Financial’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.43 per share on its common stock, payable April 1, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 10, 2026. The board also approved a dividend of $193.75 per share o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.