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Commerce Bancshares
(NASDAQ:CBSH)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$67.00
â–²(13.56% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance—strong margins, improving leverage, and standout TTM free cash flow that closely matches earnings. Technicals add support with an upward trend and healthy (not overheated) momentum. Valuation is reasonable with a modest dividend, while the corporate event is a smaller positive focused on management continuity rather than near-term fundamentals.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow
Commerce generates exceptionally strong free cash flow (TTM ~ $1.87B), with FCF roughly matching reported earnings. This persistent cash conversion supports dividend capacity, internal investment, and capital returns, strengthening long-term financial flexibility and earnings quality.
Negative Factors
Modest revenue pullback
A recent TTM revenue decline (-1.7%) interrupts prior multi-year growth trends and could signal pressure on loan growth or fee volumes. If sustained, top-line softness would constrain operating leverage and slow the expansion of net interest income and fee-related earnings over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow
Commerce generates exceptionally strong free cash flow (TTM ~ $1.87B), with FCF roughly matching reported earnings. This persistent cash conversion supports dividend capacity, internal investment, and capital returns, strengthening long-term financial flexibility and earnings quality.
Read all positive factors
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.64B
Dividend Yield1.83%
Average Volume (3M)1.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.4
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth6.89%
EPS Growth3.32%
CountryUS
Employees4,976
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.17
Shares Outstanding145,777,160
10 Day Avg. Volume1,283,366
30 Day Avg. Volume1,284,282
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.49
Price to Book (P/B)1.92
Price to Sales (P/S)3.40
P/FCF Ratio12.27
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$64.29Price Target Upside8.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.99B
Commerce Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. functions as the parent organization for Commerce Bank, delivering a comprehensive suite of financial products and services. These offerings span retail banking, mortgage services, corporate finance, investment solutions,...
How the Company Makes Money
Commerce Bancshares primarily earns revenue through a mix of net interest income and noninterest income generated by its banking and wealth-related services. Net interest income is the spread between interest earned on interest-earning assets (inc...
Commerce Bancshares Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.17B | 2.14B | 2.09B | 1.97B | 1.57B | 1.44B |
| Gross Profit | 1.74B | 1.71B | 1.63B | 1.55B | 1.48B | 1.49B |
| EBITDA | 831.00M | 770.03M | 733.57M | 669.24M | 679.23M | 731.17M |
| Net Income | 583.59M | 566.25M | 526.33M | 477.06M | 488.40M | 530.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 35.27B | 32.92B | 32.00B | 31.70B | 31.88B | 36.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.97B | 9.90B | 12.51B | 12.37B | 13.08B | 18.73B |
| Total Debt | 2.45B | 3.00B | 2.93B | 2.91B | 2.85B | 3.04B |
| Total Liabilities | 30.89B | 29.10B | 28.66B | 28.74B | 29.39B | 33.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.36B | 3.79B | 3.31B | 2.94B | 2.47B | 3.44B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.87B | 592.39M | 531.73M | 400.69M | 494.19M | 541.01M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.95B | 645.14M | 577.86M | 488.77M | 559.38M | 597.72M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.18B | -462.37M | 483.79M | 2.18B | 242.27M | -2.08B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.07B | -11.04M | -372.94M | -883.12M | -4.20B | 3.57B |
Commerce Bancshares Technical Analysis
Positive
59.00
Price Trends
56.89
Positive
53.60
Positive
52.59
Positive
Market Momentum
0.68
Positive
54.73
Neutral
26.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBSH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.11, above the 50-day MA of 56.89, and above the 200-day MA of 52.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CBSH.
Commerce Bancshares Risk Analysis
Commerce Bancshares disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Commerce Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Commerce Bancshares Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $15.90B | 12.86 | 7.58% | 1.44% | 66.97% | -3.45% | |
78 Outperform | $11.19B | 11.82 | 15.44% | 1.75% | 3.80% | 43.71% | |
76 Outperform | $8.58B | 13.27 | 10.84% | 1.73% | 1.36% | 27.32% | |
75 Outperform | $8.64B | 14.42 | 14.39% | 1.84% | 6.89% | 3.32% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $10.34B | 15.68 | 15.04% | 2.45% | 1.94% | 13.72% |
* Financial Sector Average
CBSH
Commerce Bancshares
59.08
2.81
4.99%
BOKF
Bok Financial
143.80
45.14
45.75%
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers
164.50
46.14
38.98%
PNFP
Pinnacle Financial Partners
104.68
16.94
19.30%
BPOP
Popular
174.04
62.04
55.39%
Commerce Bancshares Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Commerce Bancshares Tightens Executive Retention and Succession Plan
Positive
Jul 6, 2026
On July 1, 2026, Commerce Bancshares’ board compensation committee approved special time-vested restricted stock unit grants for Executive Vice President Kevin G. Barth and Executive Vice President and CFO Charles G. Kim, as part of the comp...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Commerce Bancshares Realigns Securities Portfolio After Visa Gain
Neutral
May 12, 2026
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. said it received Visa Inc.’s acceptance of its tender of 411,723 shares of Visa Class B-2 common stock on May 8, 2026, in exchange for Visa Class B-3 and Class C shares, and marked the new Visa Class C stock to fair...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.