Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.36B
• Dividend Yield: 1.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 781.10K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 13.77%
• EPS Growth: 17.71%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,662
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.14
• Shares Outstanding: 133,438,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 687,566
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 781,096
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.68
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.70
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.24
• 1Y Price Target: $69.60
• Price Target Upside: 11.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $71.00 ▲(13.27% Upside)

Commerce Bancshares receives a strong overall score due to its robust financial performance and strategic merger with FineMark Holdings, which is expected to enhance growth and market presence. The technical analysis indicates a neutral trend, while the valuation suggests the stock is reasonably priced. The absence of earnings call data does not impact the overall score significantly.

Positive Factors

Acquisition

Commerce Bancshares' acquisition of FNBT aligns with the bank's growth strategy, specifically in wealth management, and FNBT's low loan loss profile is complementary.

Earnings

CBSH reported core 2Q25 EPS of $1.12, exceeding estimates due to lower credit costs and higher fees.

Loan Growth

Loan growth was a positive surprise up 1.6% Q/Q and C&I growth should remain solid as borrower sentiment improves.

Negative Factors

Deposit Balances

A larger-than-expected decline in deposit balances was attributed to a lack of retail deposit build ahead of tax season.

Expenses

Core expenses increased 7% YoY, larger-than-expected.

Valuation

Despite the earnings beat, CBSH shares are trading at a 32% premium to mid-cap peers, leading to a neutral rating.

Commerce Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth. The Consumer segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as automobile, motorcycle, marine, tractor/trailer, recreational vehicle, fixed rate and revolving home equity, and other consumer loans; patient health care financing; real estate loans; indirect and other consumer financing; personal mortgage banking; consumer installment lending; and consumer debit and credit bank cards. The Commercial segment provides corporate lending, leasing, international, merchant and commercial bank card, and securities safekeeping and bond accounting services; and business products, government deposits, and related commercial cash management services, as well as sells fixed income securities to correspondent banks, corporations, public institutions, municipalities, and individuals. The Wealth segment provides traditional trust and estate planning, advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, and brokerage services, as well as private banking accounts. The company also offers private equity investment, securities brokerage, insurance agency, specialty lending, and leasing services, as well as online and mobile banking services. It operates through a network of 287 locations in Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado, as well as commercial offices. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Commerce Bancshares generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is net interest income, which is earned from the interest on loans and securities, less the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. The company also earns non-interest income from various services, including fees from deposit accounts, transaction services, wealth management, and investment advisory services. Additionally, Commerce Bancshares benefits from its mortgage banking operations, which contribute to revenue through loan origination and servicing fees. Strategic partnerships with technology providers and financial institutions further enhance its service offerings and contribute to its overall profitability.

Commerce Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Commerce Bancshares demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, with a robust gross profit margin of 78.22% and a healthy net profit margin of 25.94%. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70, and cash flow metrics indicate effective cash management.

Income Statement

Commerce Bancshares demonstrates strong revenue growth, with a 6.72% increase from 2023 to TTM. The gross profit margin is robust at 78.22%, and the net profit margin is healthy at 25.94%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 33.31% and 35.91% respectively, indicating efficient cost management and operational excellence.

Balance Sheet

The company's financial stability is highlighted by a solid equity ratio of 10.74% and a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70, suggesting manageable leverage levels. The return on equity is impressive at 15.67%, reflecting strong profitability. However, the relatively low equity ratio indicates higher reliance on liabilities.

Cash Flow

Commerce Bancshares shows a stable cash flow position, with a free cash flow growth rate of 0.29%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.07, and the free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 0.98, indicating efficient cash conversion from earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.10B	2.09B	1.97B	1.57B	1.43B	1.39B
Gross Profit	1.64B	1.63B	1.55B	1.48B	1.49B	1.21B
EBITDA	754.51M	733.57M	669.24M	679.23M	731.17M	484.95M
Net Income	545.26M	526.33M	477.06M	488.40M	530.76M	354.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	32.36B	32.00B	31.70B	31.88B	36.69B	32.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.24B	12.51B	12.37B	13.08B	18.73B	14.63B
Total Debt	2.42B	2.93B	2.91B	2.85B	3.04B	2.10B
Total Liabilities	28.87B	28.66B	28.74B	29.39B	33.24B	29.52B
Stockholders Equity	3.48B	3.31B	2.94B	2.47B	3.44B	3.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	533.27M	531.73M	400.69M	494.19M	541.01M	590.86M
Operating Cash Flow	580.99M	577.86M	488.77M	559.38M	597.72M	623.99M
Investing Cash Flow	-430.56M	483.79M	2.18B	242.27M	-2.08B	-5.39B
Financing Cash Flow	1.22B	-372.94M	-883.12M	-4.20B	3.57B	6.07B

Commerce Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 62.68
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBSH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.32, above the 50-day MA of 62.36, and below the 200-day MA of 63.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CBSH.

Commerce Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WTFC	80 Outperform	$9.13B	12.67	11.60%	1.46%	4.74%	10.10%
WBS	79 Outperform	$10.16B	12.48	9.34%	2.58%	4.73%	7.12%
UMBF	78 Outperform	$9.32B	13.84	10.05%	1.30%	30.40%	12.40%
CMA	77 Outperform	$8.96B	13.20	11.07%	4.08%	-8.62%	15.37%
CBSH	76 Outperform	$8.36B	15.00	16.31%	1.70%	13.77%	17.71%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.69B	11.82	10.30%	3.73%	9.66%	0.42%
PNFP	68 Neutral	$7.54B	12.74	9.32%	0.97%	10.19%	48.39%

Commerce Bancshares Corporate Events

Commerce Bancshares Announces Merger with FineMark Holdings

On June 16, 2025, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. entered into a Merger Agreement with CBI-Kansas, Inc. and FineMark Holdings, Inc., whereby FineMark will merge into CBI-Kansas, with Commerce Bank becoming the surviving entity. The merger, approved by the boards of all involved parties, includes the conversion of FineMark’s stock into Commerce’s stock and cash, and the vesting and conversion of FineMark’s equity awards. The agreement outlines customary conditions and covenants, with a termination fee applicable under certain circumstances. This strategic move is expected to enhance Commerce’s market position and expand its operational capabilities.

Commerce Bancshares Announces Merger with FineMark Holdings

On June 16, 2025, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. announced a definitive merger agreement to acquire FineMark Holdings, Inc. in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $585 million. This merger is set to bolster Commerce’s wealth management business by adding FineMark’s assets under administration of $7.7 billion and bank assets of $4.0 billion. The merger will enhance Commerce’s presence in high-growth markets and expand its footprint in Florida, Arizona, and South Carolina. The transaction, pending regulatory and shareholder approval, is anticipated to close on January 1, 2026, and is expected to accelerate growth, expand reach, and deliver greater value to clients, shareholders, and communities.