Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.96B
• Dividend Yield: 2.06%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: 12.63%
• EPS Growth: 14.25%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,662
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.06
• Shares Outstanding: 132,414,690
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 967,011
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,116,536
• PEG Ratio: 1.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.60
• 1Y Price Target: $65.29
• Price Target Upside: 23.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.26
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.76B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $55.00 ▲(4.09% Upside)

Commerce Bancshares' strong financial performance, characterized by robust revenue growth and profitability, is a key strength. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, which is a significant risk. The stock's reasonable valuation and attractive dividend yield provide some support, but the overall outlook is cautious due to technical challenges.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The substantial revenue growth indicates robust business expansion and effective market penetration, supporting long-term financial health.

Strategic Merger

The acquisition of FineMark is expected to enhance Commerce Bancshares' capabilities and expand its market reach, strengthening its competitive position.

Profitability

Improved profitability through cost management enhances financial stability and provides resources for reinvestment and growth.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Significant decline in free cash flow may impact liquidity and limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Share Price Pressure

Prolonged share price pressure could affect investor sentiment and the ability to raise capital through equity markets.

Decreasing Gross Profit Margin

A decreasing gross profit margin may indicate rising costs or pricing pressures, potentially impacting future profitability.

Commerce Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth. The Consumer segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as automobile, motorcycle, marine, tractor/trailer, recreational vehicle, fixed rate and revolving home equity, and other consumer loans; patient health care financing; real estate loans; indirect and other consumer financing; personal mortgage banking; consumer installment lending; and consumer debit and credit bank cards. The Commercial segment provides corporate lending, leasing, international, merchant and commercial bank card, and securities safekeeping and bond accounting services; and business products, government deposits, and related commercial cash management services, as well as sells fixed income securities to correspondent banks, corporations, public institutions, municipalities, and individuals. The Wealth segment provides traditional trust and estate planning, advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, and brokerage services, as well as private banking accounts. The company also offers private equity investment, securities brokerage, insurance agency, specialty lending, and leasing services, as well as online and mobile banking services. It operates through a network of 287 locations in Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado, as well as commercial offices. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Commerce Bancshares generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is net interest income, which is earned from the interest on loans and securities, less the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. The company also earns non-interest income from various services, including fees from deposit accounts, transaction services, wealth management, and investment advisory services. Additionally, Commerce Bancshares benefits from its mortgage banking operations, which contribute to revenue through loan origination and servicing fees. Strategic partnerships with technology providers and financial institutions further enhance its service offerings and contribute to its overall profitability.

Commerce Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Commerce Bancshares demonstrates strong financial health with impressive revenue growth and profitability. The balance sheet shows a well-managed debt level and effective equity utilization. While cash flow management presents some challenges, the overall financial position remains robust, supporting future growth opportunities.

Income Statement

Commerce Bancshares shows strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 59.1%, indicating robust business expansion. The gross profit margin remains high at 79.1%, reflecting efficient cost management. Net profit margin has improved to 26.5%, showcasing enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, indicating strong operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.72, suggesting a more balanced capital structure. Return on equity is solid at 16.1%, indicating effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a strong asset base relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has decreased by 7.19% in the TTM, indicating potential cash flow management challenges. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, suggesting consistent cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains high, reflecting efficient cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.12B	2.09B	1.97B	1.57B	1.44B	1.39B
Gross Profit	1.68B	1.63B	1.55B	1.48B	1.49B	1.21B
EBITDA	777.69M	733.57M	669.24M	679.23M	731.17M	484.95M
Net Income	562.98M	526.33M	477.06M	488.40M	530.76M	354.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	32.29B	32.00B	31.70B	31.88B	36.69B	32.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.25B	12.51B	12.37B	13.08B	18.73B	14.63B
Total Debt	2.48B	2.93B	2.91B	2.85B	3.04B	2.10B
Total Liabilities	28.50B	28.66B	28.74B	29.39B	33.24B	29.52B
Stockholders Equity	3.77B	3.31B	2.94B	2.47B	3.44B	3.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	189.13M	531.73M	400.69M	494.19M	541.01M	590.86M
Operating Cash Flow	242.16M	577.86M	488.77M	559.38M	597.72M	623.99M
Investing Cash Flow	-885.17M	483.79M	2.18B	242.27M	-2.08B	-5.39B
Financing Cash Flow	447.12M	-372.94M	-883.12M	-4.20B	3.57B	6.07B

Commerce Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 52.84
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBSH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 52.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.14, below the 50-day MA of 56.09, and below the 200-day MA of 60.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CBSH.

Commerce Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WTFC	78 Outperform	$8.56B	11.50	11.69%	1.57%	3.58%	13.93%
WBS	75 Outperform	$8.79B	10.15	9.80%	2.84%	4.78%	21.68%
CMA	73 Outperform	$9.77B	14.57	9.64%	3.73%	-7.07%	31.09%
UMBF	68 Neutral	$7.91B	11.79	11.06%	1.42%	38.81%	10.38%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CBSH	65 Neutral	$6.96B	12.55	15.45%	2.06%	12.63%	14.25%
PNFP	61 Neutral	$6.81B	10.95	9.44%	1.09%	7.76%	49.85%

Commerce Bancshares Corporate Events

Commerce Bancshares Reports Steady Q3 Earnings

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. is a regional bank holding company providing a comprehensive range of banking services, including payment solutions, investment management, and securities brokerage, with a strong presence in the Midwest and commercial offices across the U.S.