Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.15B
• Dividend Yield: 1.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 603.97K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: -4.27%
• EPS Growth: 17.70%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,662
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 79
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.98
• Shares Outstanding: 133,420,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 784,822
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 603,972
• PEG Ratio: -2.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.33
• 1Y Price Target: $65.00
• Price Target Upside: 4.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $67.00 ▲(7.67%Upside)

Commerce Bancshares' strong financial performance and strategic merger plans significantly enhance its position in the regional banking sector. However, the current technical indicators suggest bearish market momentum, which tempers the overall score. The fair valuation provides stability, while the merger with FineMark Holdings is a promising development for future growth.

Positive Factors

Acquisition Strategy

Commerce Bancshares' acquisition of FNBT aligns with the bank's growth strategy, specifically in wealth management, and FNBT's low loan loss profile is complementary.

Earnings Forecast

The forecasted EPS of $1.09 for 2Q25 is 5% above consensus estimates, driven by stronger net interest income growth.

Negative Factors

Loan Growth

Loan growth remains weak, affecting funding strategies despite an excess liquidity position.

Valuation Concerns

Analyst remains Underweight on CBSH shares due to expectation for higher net interest margin expansion elsewhere and valuation concerns.

Commerce Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth. The Consumer segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as automobile, motorcycle, marine, tractor/trailer, recreational vehicle, fixed rate and revolving home equity, and other consumer loans; patient health care financing; real estate loans; indirect and other consumer financing; personal mortgage banking; consumer installment lending; and consumer debit and credit bank cards. The Commercial segment provides corporate lending, leasing, international, merchant and commercial bank card, and securities safekeeping and bond accounting services; and business products, government deposits, and related commercial cash management services, as well as sells fixed income securities to correspondent banks, corporations, public institutions, municipalities, and individuals. The Wealth segment provides traditional trust and estate planning, advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, and brokerage services, as well as private banking accounts. The company also offers private equity investment, securities brokerage, insurance agency, specialty lending, and leasing services, as well as online and mobile banking services. It operates through a network of 287 locations in Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado, as well as commercial offices. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Commerce Bancshares generates its revenue primarily through interest income from loans and leases, which include commercial, consumer, and real estate loans. The company also earns significant income from service charges on deposit accounts, trust and investment management fees, and card transaction fees. Additionally, CBSH benefits from investment securities gains and insurance commissions. Strategic partnerships with financial technology firms and other financial institutions enhance its service offerings and contribute to its earnings. The bank's diversified financial products, coupled with its focus on customer service and regional market presence, underpin its revenue model.

Commerce Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Commerce Bancshares exhibits strong financial health with robust profit margins, effective revenue growth, and prudent cash flow management. The company's debt-free balance sheet and high return on equity underscore financial stability and operational efficiency. However, the relatively low equity ratio suggests potential leverage considerations.

Income Statement

Commerce Bancshares has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 6.4% increase in 2024. The gross profit margin remains robust at 100%, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin is solid at 35.8%, reflecting strong profitability. The significant increase in EBIT margin from 44.9% in 2023 to 98.5% in 2024 shows improved operational performance. The absence of EBITDA data in 2024 limits full margin analysis.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable with no debt in 2024, showcasing prudent financial management. The equity ratio stands at 10.3%, reflecting a moderate equity base relative to total assets. Return on equity is impressive at 15.9%, indicating effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profits. However, the relatively low equity ratio suggests that the company could be more leveraged than peers.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow grew by 44.2% from 2023 to 2024, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.1, indicating healthy cash conversion from net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also favorable at 1.1, underlining efficient cash utilization. However, the substantial financing cash outflows in previous years point to potential liquidity management challenges.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.63B	1.55B	1.57B	1.43B	1.39B
Gross Profit	1.47B	1.38B	1.48B	1.49B	1.21B
EBITDA	733.57M	669.24M	679.23M	731.17M	484.95M
Net Income	526.33M	477.06M	488.40M	530.76M	354.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	32.00B	31.70B	31.88B	36.69B	32.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	10.21B	2.69B	13.08B	18.73B	14.63B
Total Debt	56.00K	1.40M	9.67M	12.56M	802.00K
Total Liabilities	28.66B	28.74B	29.39B	12.56M	802.00K
Stockholders Equity	3.31B	2.94B	2.47B	3.44B	3.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	531.73M	400.69M	494.19M	541.01M	590.86M
Operating Cash Flow	577.86M	488.77M	559.38M	597.72M	623.99M
Investing Cash Flow	483.79M	2.18B	242.27M	-2.08B	-5.39B
Financing Cash Flow	-372.94M	-883.12M	-4.20B	3.57B	6.07B

Commerce Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 62.23
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBSH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.01, above the 50-day MA of 62.13, and above the 200-day MA of 62.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CBSH.

Commerce Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WTFC	82 Outperform	$8.12B	12.00	11.58%	1.65%	7.10%	4.65%
CMA	75 Outperform	$7.60B	10.97	11.11%	4.91%	-9.81%	5.22%
PNFP	75 Outperform	$8.29B	17.54	7.77%	0.90%	8.08%	-11.31%
CBSH	74 Outperform	$8.15B	15.26	16.82%	1.79%	-4.27%	17.70%
UMBF	72 Outperform	$7.79B	12.90	8.33%	1.56%	20.70%	5.69%
WBS	71 Outperform	$8.93B	12.08	8.59%	2.98%	2.69%	-9.07%
Sector *	67 Neutral	¥708.35B	10.82	7.42%	3.39%	7.79%	16.18%

Commerce Bancshares Corporate Events

Commerce Bancshares Announces Merger with FineMark Holdings

On June 16, 2025, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. entered into a Merger Agreement with CBI-Kansas, Inc. and FineMark Holdings, Inc., whereby FineMark will merge into CBI-Kansas, with Commerce Bank becoming the surviving entity. The merger, approved by the boards of all involved parties, includes the conversion of FineMark’s stock into Commerce’s stock and cash, and the vesting and conversion of FineMark’s equity awards. The agreement outlines customary conditions and covenants, with a termination fee applicable under certain circumstances. This strategic move is expected to enhance Commerce’s market position and expand its operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (CBSH) stock is a Hold with a $49.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commerce Bancshares stock, see the CBSH Stock Forecast page.

Commerce Bancshares Announces Merger with FineMark Holdings

On June 16, 2025, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. announced a definitive merger agreement to acquire FineMark Holdings, Inc. in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $585 million. This merger is set to bolster Commerce’s wealth management business by adding FineMark’s assets under administration of $7.7 billion and bank assets of $4.0 billion. The merger will enhance Commerce’s presence in high-growth markets and expand its footprint in Florida, Arizona, and South Carolina. The transaction, pending regulatory and shareholder approval, is anticipated to close on January 1, 2026, and is expected to accelerate growth, expand reach, and deliver greater value to clients, shareholders, and communities.

The most recent analyst rating on (CBSH) stock is a Hold with a $49.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commerce Bancshares stock, see the CBSH Stock Forecast page.

Commerce Bancshares Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting

Commerce Bancshares held its Annual Meeting on April 25, 2025, where shareholders voted on several key proposals. The election of directors resulted in Benjamin F. Rassieur, III being elected to the 2027 Class, and four directors, Timothy S. Dunn, June McAllister Fowler, Todd R. Schnuck, and Christine B. Taylor, being elected to the 2028 Class. Additionally, the shareholders ratified the selection of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 and approved the company’s executive compensation in a non-binding vote.