Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.47B
• Dividend Yield: 1.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: 12.63%
• EPS Growth: 14.25%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,662
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.01
• Shares Outstanding: 139,035,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,156,743
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,116,515
• PEG Ratio: 1.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.60
• 1Y Price Target: $64.86
• Price Target Upside: 20.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.76B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $58.00 ▲(7.93% Upside)

Commerce Bancshares' strong financial performance and strategic share repurchase program are significant positives. However, technical indicators suggest mixed momentum, and cash flow challenges need addressing. The stock is reasonably valued, making it an attractive option for investors seeking stability and moderate income.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust business expansion and effective market penetration, supporting long-term financial health.

Share Repurchase Program

The share repurchase program reflects confidence in financial health and aims to enhance shareholder value, supporting stock price stability.

Merger with FineMark

The merger with FineMark is expected to enhance market positioning, potentially increasing market share and competitive advantage.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Declining free cash flow could strain liquidity and limit investment capabilities, posing risks to long-term operational flexibility.

Integration Risks

Integration challenges from the merger may disrupt operations and incur additional costs, affecting short-term performance and stakeholder confidence.

Decreasing Gross Profit Margin

A decreasing gross profit margin may indicate rising costs or pricing pressures, potentially impacting long-term profitability.

Commerce Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth. The Consumer segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as automobile, motorcycle, marine, tractor/trailer, recreational vehicle, fixed rate and revolving home equity, and other consumer loans; patient health care financing; real estate loans; indirect and other consumer financing; personal mortgage banking; consumer installment lending; and consumer debit and credit bank cards. The Commercial segment provides corporate lending, leasing, international, merchant and commercial bank card, and securities safekeeping and bond accounting services; and business products, government deposits, and related commercial cash management services, as well as sells fixed income securities to correspondent banks, corporations, public institutions, municipalities, and individuals. The Wealth segment provides traditional trust and estate planning, advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, and brokerage services, as well as private banking accounts. The company also offers private equity investment, securities brokerage, insurance agency, specialty lending, and leasing services, as well as online and mobile banking services. It operates through a network of 287 locations in Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado, as well as commercial offices. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Commerce Bancshares generates revenue primarily through net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is derived from the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. The bank offers various loan products to individuals and businesses, which typically yield higher interest rates compared to the interest it pays on customer deposits. Non-interest income contributes significantly to revenue as well, which includes fees from banking services, investment management, treasury management, and brokerage services. Additionally, the bank partners with other financial institutions and entities to expand its service offerings and enhance its revenue streams. Factors such as interest rate fluctuations, economic conditions, and customer demand for financial products also play a vital role in influencing its earnings.

Commerce Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Commerce Bancshares demonstrates strong financial health with impressive revenue growth and profitability. The balance sheet shows a well-managed debt level and effective equity utilization. While cash flow management presents some challenges, the overall financial position remains robust, supporting future growth opportunities.

Income Statement

Commerce Bancshares shows strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 59.1%, indicating robust business expansion. The gross profit margin remains high at 79.1%, reflecting efficient cost management. Net profit margin has improved to 26.5%, showcasing enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, indicating strong operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.72, suggesting a more balanced capital structure. Return on equity is solid at 16.1%, indicating effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a strong asset base relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has decreased by 7.19% in the TTM, indicating potential cash flow management challenges. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, suggesting consistent cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains high, reflecting efficient cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.12B	2.09B	1.97B	1.57B	1.44B	1.39B
Gross Profit	1.68B	1.63B	1.55B	1.48B	1.49B	1.21B
EBITDA	777.69M	733.57M	669.24M	679.23M	731.17M	484.95M
Net Income	562.98M	526.33M	477.06M	488.40M	530.76M	354.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	32.29B	32.00B	31.70B	31.88B	36.69B	32.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.25B	12.51B	12.37B	13.08B	18.73B	14.63B
Total Debt	2.48B	2.93B	2.91B	2.85B	3.04B	2.10B
Total Liabilities	28.50B	28.66B	28.74B	29.39B	33.24B	29.52B
Stockholders Equity	3.77B	3.31B	2.94B	2.47B	3.44B	3.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	189.13M	531.73M	400.69M	494.19M	541.01M	590.86M
Operating Cash Flow	242.16M	577.86M	488.77M	559.38M	597.72M	623.99M
Investing Cash Flow	-885.17M	483.79M	2.18B	242.27M	-2.08B	-5.39B
Financing Cash Flow	447.12M	-372.94M	-883.12M	-4.20B	3.57B	6.07B

Commerce Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 53.74
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBSH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 53.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.41, above the 50-day MA of 51.75, and below the 200-day MA of 56.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CBSH.

Commerce Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CFR	77 Outperform	$8.26B	13.30	14.68%	3.06%	2.85%	20.57%
BPOP	77 Outperform	$8.07B	10.72	13.05%	2.40%	5.87%	53.36%
CBSH	73 Outperform	$7.47B	13.48	15.45%	1.95%	12.63%	14.25%
BOKF	73 Outperform	$7.53B	14.18	9.13%	1.96%	-2.81%	14.96%
PNFP	73 Outperform	$7.75B	12.69	9.44%	0.96%	7.76%	49.85%
CADE	72 Outperform	$8.00B	15.80	9.10%	2.51%	14.58%	-19.97%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Commerce Bancshares Corporate Events

Commerce Bancshares Adjusts Merger Terms with FineMark

On June 16, 2025, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. announced a merger agreement with FineMark Holdings, Inc., where FineMark will merge into CBI-Kansas, a subsidiary of Commerce. Following this, FineMark National Bank & Trust will merge into Commerce Bank. The exchange ratio for the acquisition has been adjusted to 0.7245 shares of Commerce stock for each FineMark share, reflecting a 5% stock dividend declared by Commerce on October 31, 2025. This merger is expected to enhance Commerce’s market positioning, although it carries risks such as integration challenges and potential adverse reactions from stakeholders.

Commerce Bancshares Announces New Share Repurchase Program

On November 3, 2025, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. announced the Board of Directors’ approval for the repurchase of up to 5,000,000 shares of its common stock, combining this with the remaining amount from a prior authorization in April 2024. This share repurchase program allows for flexibility in execution, with purchases potentially occurring through open market transactions or privately negotiated deals, depending on market conditions and other considerations. The program is discretionary and can be modified or terminated by the company at any time, reflecting a strategic move to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.