Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.99B
• Dividend Yield: 1.78%
• Average Volume (3M): 818.51K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 14.15%
• EPS Growth: 17.71%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,662
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.14
• Shares Outstanding: 133,420,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 755,770
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 818,511
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.93
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.72
• 1Y Price Target: $69.60
• Price Target Upside: 14.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $70.00 ▲(15.11% Upside)

Commerce Bancshares shows solid financial performance with strong profitability and effective cash management. The positive impact of the merger with FineMark Holdings supports growth potential. However, the technical indicators suggest a neutral to slightly bearish outlook, and valuation is moderate.

Positive Factors

Acquisition

The acquisition of FNBT is attractive for Commerce Bancshares, aligning with its growth strategy and offering a short earnback period with conservative assumptions.

Earnings

Commerce Bancshares reported core earnings per share of $1.12, exceeding estimates due to lower credit costs and higher fees.

Loan Growth

Loan growth surprised positively with a 1.6% increase quarter-over-quarter, and C&I growth is expected to remain solid as borrower sentiment improves.

Negative Factors

Deposits

A larger-than-expected decline in deposit balances was noted, attributed to a lack of retail deposit build ahead of tax season.

Expenses

Core expenses increased by 7% year-over-year, which was larger than expected.

Valuation

Despite the earnings beat, Commerce Bancshares shares are trading at a 32% premium to mid-cap peers, leading to a neutral rating due to better risk/reward opportunities elsewhere.

Commerce Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) is a regional bank holding company based in Kansas City, Missouri. Founded in 1865, the company operates in the financial services sector, offering a wide array of products and services including personal and business banking, wealth management, and investment services. It serves individuals, businesses, and governmental entities across the Midwest region of the United States through its network of branch locations and digital banking platforms.

How the Company Makes Money

Commerce Bancshares generates its revenue primarily through interest income from loans and leases, which include commercial, consumer, and real estate loans. The company also earns significant income from service charges on deposit accounts, trust and investment management fees, and card transaction fees. Additionally, CBSH benefits from investment securities gains and insurance commissions. Strategic partnerships with financial technology firms and other financial institutions enhance its service offerings and contribute to its earnings. The bank's diversified financial products, coupled with its focus on customer service and regional market presence, underpin its revenue model.

Commerce Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Commerce Bancshares demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, with a robust gross profit margin of 78.22% and a healthy net profit margin of 25.94%. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70, and cash flow metrics indicate effective cash management.

Income Statement

Commerce Bancshares demonstrates strong revenue growth, with a 6.72% increase from 2023 to TTM. The gross profit margin is robust at 78.22%, and the net profit margin is healthy at 25.94%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 33.31% and 35.91% respectively, indicating efficient cost management and operational excellence.

Balance Sheet

The company's financial stability is highlighted by a solid equity ratio of 10.74% and a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70, suggesting manageable leverage levels. The return on equity is impressive at 15.67%, reflecting strong profitability. However, the relatively low equity ratio indicates higher reliance on liabilities.

Cash Flow

Commerce Bancshares shows a stable cash flow position, with a free cash flow growth rate of 0.29%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.07, and the free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 0.98, indicating efficient cash conversion from earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.09B	1.97B	1.57B	1.43B	1.39B
Gross Profit	1.63B	1.55B	1.48B	1.49B	1.21B
EBITDA	733.57M	669.24M	679.23M	731.17M	484.95M
Net Income	526.33M	477.06M	488.40M	530.76M	354.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	32.00B	31.70B	31.88B	36.69B	32.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.51B	12.37B	13.08B	18.73B	14.63B
Total Debt	2.93B	2.91B	2.85B	3.04B	2.10B
Total Liabilities	28.66B	28.74B	29.39B	33.24B	29.52B
Stockholders Equity	3.31B	2.94B	2.47B	3.44B	3.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	531.73M	400.69M	494.19M	541.01M	590.86M
Operating Cash Flow	577.86M	488.77M	559.38M	597.72M	623.99M
Investing Cash Flow	483.79M	2.18B	242.27M	-2.08B	-5.39B
Financing Cash Flow	-372.94M	-883.12M	-4.20B	3.57B	6.07B

Commerce Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 60.81
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBSH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 60.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.04, below the 50-day MA of 62.72, and below the 200-day MA of 62.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CBSH.

Commerce Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WTFC	81 Outperform	$8.42B	11.80	11.60%	1.53%	4.30%	10.10%
WBS	79 Outperform	$9.42B	11.37	9.49%	2.82%	4.65%	7.12%
UMBF	77 Outperform	$8.45B	12.69	10.05%	1.47%	30.40%	12.40%
CMA	76 Outperform	$8.56B	12.81	11.07%	4.26%	-8.62%	15.37%
CBSH	74 Outperform	$7.99B	14.45	16.36%	1.78%	14.15%	17.71%
PNFP	68 Neutral	$6.95B	11.58	9.32%	1.09%	10.19%	48.39%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$17.00B	11.67	9.71%	3.95%	10.68%	1.24%

Commerce Bancshares Corporate Events

Commerce Bancshares Announces Merger with FineMark Holdings

On June 16, 2025, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. entered into a Merger Agreement with CBI-Kansas, Inc. and FineMark Holdings, Inc., whereby FineMark will merge into CBI-Kansas, with Commerce Bank becoming the surviving entity. The merger, approved by the boards of all involved parties, includes the conversion of FineMark’s stock into Commerce’s stock and cash, and the vesting and conversion of FineMark’s equity awards. The agreement outlines customary conditions and covenants, with a termination fee applicable under certain circumstances. This strategic move is expected to enhance Commerce’s market position and expand its operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (CBSH) stock is a Hold with a $49.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commerce Bancshares stock, see the CBSH Stock Forecast page.

Commerce Bancshares Announces Merger with FineMark Holdings

On June 16, 2025, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. announced a definitive merger agreement to acquire FineMark Holdings, Inc. in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $585 million. This merger is set to bolster Commerce’s wealth management business by adding FineMark’s assets under administration of $7.7 billion and bank assets of $4.0 billion. The merger will enhance Commerce’s presence in high-growth markets and expand its footprint in Florida, Arizona, and South Carolina. The transaction, pending regulatory and shareholder approval, is anticipated to close on January 1, 2026, and is expected to accelerate growth, expand reach, and deliver greater value to clients, shareholders, and communities.

The most recent analyst rating on (CBSH) stock is a Hold with a $49.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commerce Bancshares stock, see the CBSH Stock Forecast page.