Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.60B
• Dividend Yield: 1.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 12.63%
• EPS Growth: 14.25%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,662
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.01
• Shares Outstanding: 146,879,270
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,296,192
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,336,245
• PEG Ratio: 2.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.34
• 1Y Price Target: $61.50
• Price Target Upside: 20.61% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.96
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.97B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $58.00 ▲(13.75% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (growth, profitability, and improving leverage) and supportive valuation (P/E ~12.9 with a ~2% yield). These are tempered by weak technical signals (negative MACD and price below key moving averages) and moderate execution risk from the FineMark integration.

Positive Factors

Sustained revenue growth & profitability

Multi-year revenue expansion and a ~26% net margin in 2025 reflect durable core earnings power. Consistent top-line growth plus healthy margins support reinvestment in services, resilience to economic cycles, and capacity to fund dividends and buybacks over a multi-quarter horizon.

Improving balance-sheet leverage and ROE

Falling leverage and strong ~15% ROE indicate improving capital structure and efficient use of equity. This enhances capacity for controlled loan growth, supports regulatory ratios, and reduces funding vulnerability, strengthening long-term financial flexibility and creditworthiness.

Expanded wealth/private-banking franchise

The FineMark deal materially scales wealth and private-banking AUA, diversifying fee income and deepening client relationships in high-growth markets. A larger advisory platform reduces reliance on net interest income cyclicality and supports more stable, higher-margin revenue over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Integration and execution risk

Large-scale systems and cultural integration can erode expected synergies, raise costs, and threaten advisor/client retention. Delays or missteps during H2 2026 integration could compress margins and slow fee growth, making realized benefits uncertain across the next several quarters.

Choppy free-cash-flow history

Volatile free cash flow and a weak operating cash flow coverage metric reduce confidence in consistent internal funding for debt service, M&A, and shareholder returns. This variability raises the risk that capital deployment choices may need to shift under stress or slower growth.

Sizable absolute debt levels

While leverage ratios improved, a ~$3.0B debt stock constrains flexibility if funding costs rise or credit losses spike. Higher absolute debt increases sensitivity to interest-rate and liquidity shifts, potentially limiting capital actions during adverse economic conditions over the medium term.

Commerce Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth. The Consumer segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as automobile, motorcycle, marine, tractor/trailer, recreational vehicle, fixed rate and revolving home equity, and other consumer loans; patient health care financing; real estate loans; indirect and other consumer financing; personal mortgage banking; consumer installment lending; and consumer debit and credit bank cards. The Commercial segment provides corporate lending, leasing, international, merchant and commercial bank card, and securities safekeeping and bond accounting services; and business products, government deposits, and related commercial cash management services, as well as sells fixed income securities to correspondent banks, corporations, public institutions, municipalities, and individuals. The Wealth segment provides traditional trust and estate planning, advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, and brokerage services, as well as private banking accounts. The company also offers private equity investment, securities brokerage, insurance agency, specialty lending, and leasing services, as well as online and mobile banking services. It operates through a network of 287 locations in Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado, as well as commercial offices. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Commerce Bancshares generates revenue primarily through net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is derived from the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. The bank offers various loan products to individuals and businesses, which typically yield higher interest rates compared to the interest it pays on customer deposits. Non-interest income contributes significantly to revenue as well, which includes fees from banking services, investment management, treasury management, and brokerage services. Additionally, the bank partners with other financial institutions and entities to expand its service offerings and enhance its revenue streams. Factors such as interest rate fluctuations, economic conditions, and customer demand for financial products also play a vital role in influencing its earnings.

Commerce Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth with solid profitability (net margin ~26% in 2025) and improving leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.79). Main drawbacks are normalization vs. earlier-cycle peak margins/ROE and choppy free-cash-flow growth with a weak/near-zero operating cash flow coverage metric in the dataset.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded solidly over the period (from ~$1.39B in 2020 to ~$2.14B in 2025), with especially strong growth in 2025. Profitability remains strong for a regional bank, with net margin rising to ~26% in 2025 (vs. ~25% in 2024) and healthy operating profitability. The main weakness is some margin compression versus peak levels seen earlier in the cycle (notably 2021–2022), indicating earnings power can fluctuate with the rate/credit environment.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks reasonable and improving: debt-to-equity moved down to ~0.79 in 2025 from ~0.88 in 2024 and ~1.16 in 2022, alongside equity growth. Returns on equity are consistently healthy (~15% in 2025), supporting balance-sheet quality. The key watch-out is that debt remains sizable in absolute terms (~$3.0B) and ROE has come off 2022 highs, which could reflect normalization in profitability and/or higher funding costs.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong and improving, with operating cash flow of ~$645M in 2025 and free cash flow matching that level. Free cash flow covered net income well across the period (about 0.82x–1.00x, reaching 1.00x in 2025), suggesting earnings are backed by cash. Weaknesses include choppiness in free-cash-flow growth (declines in 2021–2023 before a sharp rebound) and the provided operating cash flow coverage metric being very low/near zero, which reduces confidence in debt-service coverage based on the dataset.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.14B	2.09B	1.97B	1.57B	1.44B
Gross Profit	1.71B	1.63B	1.55B	1.48B	1.49B
EBITDA	770.03M	733.57M	669.24M	679.23M	731.17M
Net Income	566.25M	526.33M	477.06M	488.40M	530.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	32.92B	32.00B	31.70B	31.88B	36.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.90B	12.51B	12.37B	13.08B	18.73B
Total Debt	3.00B	2.93B	2.91B	2.85B	3.04B
Total Liabilities	29.10B	28.66B	28.74B	29.39B	33.24B
Stockholders Equity	3.79B	3.31B	2.94B	2.47B	3.44B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	592.39M	531.73M	400.69M	494.19M	541.01M
Operating Cash Flow	645.14M	577.86M	488.77M	559.38M	597.72M
Investing Cash Flow	-462.37M	483.79M	2.18B	242.27M	-2.08B
Financing Cash Flow	-11.04M	-372.94M	-883.12M	-4.20B	3.57B

Commerce Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 50.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CBSH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 50.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.56, below the 50-day MA of 53.42, and below the 200-day MA of 55.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CBSH.

Commerce Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BPOP	75 Outperform	$9.03B	11.00	14.05%	2.31%	5.87%	53.36%
BOKF	73 Outperform	$7.80B	13.72	9.13%	1.93%	-2.81%	14.96%
PNFP	73 Outperform	$14.01B	11.25	9.53%	0.95%	7.76%	49.85%
CBSH	72 Outperform	$7.60B	12.63	15.80%	1.97%	12.63%	14.25%
CFR	69 Neutral	$8.86B	13.94	15.16%	3.05%	2.85%	20.57%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Commerce Bancshares Corporate Events

Commerce Bancshares Updates Executive Pay and Incentive Structure

On February 3, 2026, Commerce Bancshares’ Compensation and Human Resources Committee approved 2026 base salaries, effective March 28, 2026, and 2025 performance-based cash bonuses for CEO John W. Kemper and other named executive officers, reflecting the company’s pay-for-performance philosophy. The committee also adopted a redesigned long-term incentive structure for 2026 grants under the Equity Incentive Plan, splitting awards into one-third time-vested and two-thirds performance-vested restricted stock units that vest over three years based on adjusted return on average equity, diluted earnings per share growth, and a total shareholder return modifier, with detailed vesting, forfeiture, and conduct provisions intended to reinforce long-term alignment with shareholders.

The long-term incentive redesign ties executive rewards more tightly to multi-year financial and market performance, potentially strengthening Commerce Bancshares’ ability to retain senior leaders while signaling to investors a continued emphasis on disciplined profitability and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (CBSH) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commerce Bancshares stock, see the CBSH Stock Forecast page.

Commerce Bancshares completes acquisition of FineMark Holdings

On January 1, 2026, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. completed its acquisition of FineMark Holdings, Inc., parent of FineMark National Bank & Trust, boosting Commerce’s total assets to about $36 billion and assets under administration to roughly $90 billion, placing it 15th among bank-managed trust companies by assets under management on a pro forma basis as of September 30, 2025. The deal significantly expands Commerce’s private banking and wealth management business, reinforcing its presence in Florida and adding new locations in Arizona and South Carolina; FineMark National Bank & Trust was promptly merged into Commerce Bank and now operates as FineMark Bank & Trust, a division of Commerce Bank that will retain existing advisor-client relationships, with FineMark’s Joseph Catti becoming chairman of Commerce Trust and leading the FineMark division while systems integration is slated for the second half of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (CBSH) stock is a Buy with a $58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commerce Bancshares stock, see the CBSH Stock Forecast page.

Commerce Bancshares Adjusts Merger Terms with FineMark

On June 16, 2025, Commerce Bancshares, Inc. announced a merger agreement with FineMark Holdings, Inc., where FineMark will merge into CBI-Kansas, a subsidiary of Commerce. Following this, FineMark National Bank & Trust will merge into Commerce Bank. The exchange ratio for the acquisition has been adjusted to 0.7245 shares of Commerce stock for each FineMark share, reflecting a 5% stock dividend declared by Commerce on October 31, 2025. This merger is expected to enhance Commerce’s market positioning, although it carries risks such as integration challenges and potential adverse reactions from stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CBSH) stock is a Hold with a $67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Commerce Bancshares stock, see the CBSH Stock Forecast page.