Valvoline (VVV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.79B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 5.64%
• EPS Growth: 0.96%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 127,241,974
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,467,484
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,728,378
• PEG Ratio: 17.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 13.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.69
• P/FCF Ratio: 120.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.64
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.64
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.46
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.83
• 1Y Price Target: $38.46
• Price Target Upside: 28.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.67
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.04B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $34.00 ▲(13.86% Upside)

Valvoline's strong earnings growth and strategic acquisitions are significant positives, but high leverage and bearish technical indicators pose risks. The stock is reasonably valued, with optimistic future guidance.

Positive Factors

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong demand for Valvoline's products and services, enhancing its market position and long-term sustainability.

Strategic Acquisitions

Strategic acquisitions like Breeze Autocare bolster Valvoline's market presence and customer base, supporting long-term growth and competitive advantage.

Same-Store Sales Growth

Sustained same-store sales growth reflects strong customer loyalty and effective service offerings, contributing to stable revenue streams.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting Valvoline's ability to invest in future growth opportunities.

Inconsistent Cash Flow

Inconsistent cash flow limits Valvoline's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives internally, potentially increasing reliance on external financing.

Higher Product Costs

Rising product costs can erode profit margins, affecting Valvoline's profitability and ability to maintain competitive pricing.

Valvoline Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valvoline Inc. manufactures, markets, and supplies, engine and automotive maintenance products and services. It operates through two segments, Retail Services and Global Products. The company offers lubricants for passenger car, light duty, and heavy duty; antifreeze/coolants for original equipment manufacturers; functional and maintenance chemicals, such as brake fluids and power steering fluids, as well as specialty coatings for automotive and industrial applications; and oil and air filters for light-duty vehicles. It also provides batteries, windshield wiper blades, light bulbs, serpentine belts, and drain plugs. In addition, the company operates Valvoline instant oil change service centers. As of September 30, 2021, it operated and franchised approximately 1,594 quick-lube locations under the Valvoline Instant Oil Change brand in the United States and the Great Canadian Oil Change brand in Canada. The company also serves car dealers, general repair shops, and third-party quick lube locations, as well as through distributors and licensees. It has operations in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.

How the Company Makes Money

Valvoline generates revenue primarily through the sale of automotive lubricants and related products in both the DIY and DIFM segments. The DIY segment earns income from retail sales of engine oils, maintenance products, and other automotive supplies through various channels, including retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and distribution networks. The DIFM segment contributes revenue through its chain of Valvoline Instant Oil Change centers, where customers pay for oil change services and maintenance. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships with automotive retailers and service providers, enhancing its market presence and distribution capabilities. Valvoline's focus on brand loyalty and customer service further solidifies its revenue streams.

Valvoline Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Valvoline shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, but high leverage and inconsistent cash flow present risks. The company has a robust net profit margin, yet its reliance on debt financing is concerning.

Income Statement

Valvoline has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in gross profit margins. However, the net profit margin has shown volatility, particularly due to a significant spike in 2023, which may not be sustainable. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, indicating strong operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk. However, the return on equity is strong, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is low, reflecting a reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Valvoline's cash flow performance is mixed. While operating cash flow is positive, free cash flow has shown a declining trend, with negative growth in recent years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is reasonable, but the free cash flow to net income ratio has been inconsistent.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.71B	―	1.71B	1.62B	1.44B	1.24B
Gross Profit	658.50M	―	658.50M	618.80M	544.50M	476.40M
EBITDA	485.20M	―	485.70M	367.20M	368.80M	284.80M
Net Income	210.70M	―	210.70M	211.50M	1.42B	424.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.67B	―	2.67B	2.44B	2.89B	3.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	51.60M	―	51.60M	68.30M	756.60M	23.40M
Total Debt	1.67B	―	1.67B	1.63B	2.07B	2.14B
Total Liabilities	2.33B	―	2.33B	2.25B	2.69B	3.11B
Stockholders Equity	338.50M	―	338.50M	185.60M	203.20M	306.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	38.00M	―	38.00M	40.70M	-221.30M	152.20M
Operating Cash Flow	297.20M	―	297.20M	265.10M	-40.80M	284.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-201.10M	―	-201.10M	136.80M	2.04B	-207.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-112.90M	―	-112.90M	-746.30M	-1.67B	-218.90M

Valvoline Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 29.86
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VVV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.59, below the 50-day MA of 31.84, and below the 200-day MA of 35.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.21 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VVV.

Valvoline Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	73 Outperform	$51.97B	35.29	5.38%	3.68%	-10.56%	-53.06%
SUN	72 Outperform	$8.06B	17.90	8.27%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
VLO	69 Neutral	$49.88B	34.30	6.07%	2.74%	-8.48%	-56.92%
VVV	68 Neutral	$3.79B	18.25	81.97%	―	5.64%	0.96%
DINO	68 Neutral	$8.57B	22.61	4.07%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
MPC	66 Neutral	$49.53B	17.75	15.98%	2.24%	-6.37%	-25.83%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Valvoline Corporate Events

Valvoline Hosts Investor Update on Growth Strategy

On December 11, 2025, Valvoline Inc. will host an Investor Update in New York to discuss its business strategy and outlook. The company aims to drive growth by integrating Breeze Autocare’s Oil Changers stores and executing a growth strategy focused on enhancing shareholder value, expanding its network, and innovating to meet customer needs. Valvoline’s leadership emphasizes a disciplined capital allocation policy and the pursuit of synergies through acquisitions, positioning itself as a leader in the automotive services market.

Valvoline Completes Acquisition of Breeze Autocare

On December 1, 2025, Valvoline Inc. completed the acquisition of Breeze Autocare from Greenbriar Equity Group, enhancing its network and customer reach. The acquisition, valued at $593 million, was financed through a new $740 million incremental senior secured term loan B credit facility. This strategic move is expected to bolster Valvoline’s position in the automotive maintenance sector, although it required divesting 45 stores to comply with FTC regulations.

Valvoline Nominates New Board Members for Strategic Growth

On November 13, 2025, Valvoline Inc. announced the retirement of board members Mary J. Twinem and Vada O. Manager, effective at the 2026 Annual Meeting, with no disagreements cited. On November 19, 2025, the company nominated Janet Wong and Chris Carr to join the board, bringing extensive financial and retail expertise to support Valvoline’s strategic priorities and growth.

Valvoline to Acquire Breeze Autocare by December

Valvoline reported its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 results, highlighting a sales growth of 6% to $1.7 billion and a 19th consecutive year of system-wide same-store sales growth. The company plans to complete the acquisition of Breeze Autocare on December 1, 2025, which will add 162 stores to its network, enhancing its market presence. Despite a decline in reported income from continuing operations, Valvoline achieved an increase in adjusted EBITDA and returned $60 million to shareholders through share repurchases. The company is well-positioned for fiscal 2026, with expectations of continued growth and an investor update scheduled for December 11, 2025.