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Valvoline
(NYSE:VVV)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(5.24% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
Overall score reflects mixed fundamentals: solid revenue growth but compressed TTM profitability and elevated leverage are the key financial constraints. Technicals are supportive with price holding above major moving averages and moderate momentum. Earnings call factors are a net positive due to raised guidance and strong operating performance, but high P/E valuation and near-term product-cost-driven margin pressure limit upside.
Positive Factors
Franchise network expansion
Rapid, continued net store additions expand recurring service volume, royalty streams and geographic reach. A ~2,456‑unit network creates durable scale for marketing, procurement and labor scheduling, strengthening competitive position and long‑term franchise cash flows.
Negative Factors
Elevated historical leverage
Very high historical leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to earnings and cost shocks. Even with recent deleveraging, a thin equity base amplifies return volatility and constrains capacity for opportunistic M&A or extended price/volume recovery if margins weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Franchise network expansion
Rapid, continued net store additions expand recurring service volume, royalty streams and geographic reach. A ~2,456‑unit network creates durable scale for marketing, procurement and labor scheduling, strengthening competitive position and long‑term franchise cash flows.
Read all positive factors
Valvoline (VVV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.90B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)57.3
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth10.99%
EPS Growth-64.70%
CountryUS
Employees11,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.67
Shares Outstanding127,536,080
10 Day Avg. Volume1,872,580
30 Day Avg. Volume2,005,606
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio17.74
Price to Book (P/B)13.57
Price to Sales (P/S)2.69
P/FCF Ratio120.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.73Price Target Upside12.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.06B
Valvoline Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valvoline Inc. is a prominent provider, involved in the manufacturing, distribution, and commercialization of a comprehensive range of engine and vehicle care products and related services. Its operations are structured into two distinct divisions...
How the Company Makes Money
Valvoline primarily makes money by providing automotive preventative maintenance services to consumers through (1) company-owned service centers and (2) franchised locations. At company-owned locations, revenue is generated from service tickets th...
Valvoline Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial quarter with notable top-line growth (system-wide sales +19%, company net sales +24%), meaningful EBITDA and EPS expansion, improved cash flow and balance sheet metrics, continued network growth and positive early results from the Breeze integration. The primary drag is an industry-wide Group III base oil supply disruption (Strait of Hormuz) that has driven finished lubricant costs materially higher (≈60% vs March; ~$5–$7 per oil change) and creates near-term margin pressure (Q4 product-cost-driven compression). Management has taken pricing and operational actions, raised same-store sales guidance, and expects elevated costs to persist for several months after supply normalizes, but the company characterizes itself as advantaged on supply and remains confident in demand and long-term margins.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth and Record Quarterly System Sales
System-wide store sales increased 19%, crossing the $1 billion mark for the first time in a quarter; system-wide same-store sales grew 8%.
Negative Updates
Severe Base Oil Supply Disruption
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global oil supply chains and constrained Group III base oil (key for full synthetic), an industry-wide issue expected to persist into the medium term.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth and Record Quarterly System Sales
System-wide store sales increased 19%, crossing the $1 billion mark for the first time in a quarter; system-wide same-store sales grew 8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Valvoline raised full‑year system‑wide same‑store sales guidance to 7.5%–8% (and nudged the full‑year sales midpoint from $2.05B to $2.10B, +$25M) and narrowed adjusted EBITDA and EPS ranges to $550–$560M and $1.70–$1.75, respectively, noting it had planned ~100 bps of full‑year EBITDA margin compression but now expects roughly half (~50 bps); management also said Q4 pricing actions aim to protect gross profit dollars though the September quarter midpoint would imply 300–400 bps of sequential margin compression driven by product cost. Q3 showed net sales of $545M (+24% YoY), system‑wide store sales +19% (crossing >$1B for the quarter), system‑wide same‑store sales +8%, EBITDA $162M (+25%, margin 29.8%, +30 bps), EPS $0.57 (+21%), gross margin 40% (-50 bps), SG&A 17% (-90 bps), YTD operating cash flow $285M (up $105M), free cash flow $112M (up ~$93M), net leverage 2.8x (down ~10%), and an expected annual interest savings of ~$1.8M from a Term Loan B repricing. Management cautioned finished lubricant costs could be ~60% above March (roughly $5–$7 per oil change) and that supply/cost normalization may take ~4–6 months after the Strait of Hormuz reopens.Valvoline Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
49
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.86B | 1.71B | 1.62B | 1.44B | 1.24B | 1.04B |
| Gross Profit | 714.60M | 658.50M | 618.80M | 544.50M | 476.40M | 432.30M |
| EBITDA | 409.40M | 510.70M | 367.20M | 368.80M | 284.80M | 430.40M |
| Net Income | 93.50M | 210.70M | 211.50M | 1.42B | 424.30M | 420.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.42B | 2.67B | 2.44B | 2.89B | 3.42B | 3.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 84.70M | 51.60M | 68.30M | 756.60M | 23.40M | 122.60M |
| Total Debt | 2.03B | 1.67B | 1.63B | 2.07B | 2.14B | 2.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.07B | 2.33B | 2.25B | 2.69B | 3.11B | 3.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 353.10M | 338.50M | 185.60M | 203.20M | 306.60M | 134.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 100.00M | 38.00M | 40.70M | -221.30M | 152.20M | 300.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 369.00M | 297.20M | 265.10M | -40.80M | 284.20M | 403.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -910.80M | -201.10M | 136.80M | 2.04B | -207.60M | -399.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 563.80M | -112.90M | -746.30M | -1.67B | -218.90M | -535.50M |
Valvoline Technical Analysis
Positive
38.96
Price Trends
37.79
Positive
35.64
Positive
34.35
Positive
Market Momentum
0.30
Positive
53.86
Neutral
29.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VVV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.05, above the 50-day MA of 37.79, and above the 200-day MA of 34.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VVV.
Valvoline Risk Analysis
Valvoline disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Valvoline reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Valvoline Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $16.26B | 8.69 | 19.86% | 2.27% | 16.26% | ― | |
77 Outperform | $15.71B | 19.37 | 23.59% | 4.99% | 37.27% | -29.09% | |
77 Outperform | $90.09B | 12.97 | 29.94% | 1.54% | 12.92% | 898.48% | |
73 Outperform | $92.39B | 20.64 | 48.71% | 1.26% | -1.29% | 114.86% | |
68 Neutral | $84.87B | 20.77 | 14.72% | 2.39% | -1.33% | 130.72% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $4.90B | 57.33 | 28.49% | ― | 10.99% | -64.70% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
VVV
Valvoline
36.98
-0.93
-2.45%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
82.98
41.18
98.53%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
297.75
138.43
86.89%
PSX
Phillips 66
202.55
86.68
74.81%
VLO
Valero Energy
302.39
171.70
131.38%
SUN
Sunoco
73.36
23.84
48.15%
Valvoline Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valvoline Raises Outlook Following Strong Third-Quarter Results
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Valvoline reported third-quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2026, highlighted by 24% net revenue growth to about $545 million and a 19% rise in system-wide store sales to $1.05 billion. The company added 47 net stores...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Valvoline Adds Experienced Leaders to Board of Directors
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Valvoline Inc. elected finance executive Katherine Fogertey, former CFO of Shake Shack, and Scott Mezvinsky, CEO of the KFC division of Yum! Brands, to its Board of Directors, effective that same date. Fogertey brings extensive p...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Valvoline Refinances Term B Loans to Optimize Debt
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Valvoline Inc. amended its Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement to refinance all outstanding Term B Loans with a new class of Refinanced Term B Loans, keeping the aggregate principal at $738.15 million. Certain existing l...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valvoline Delivers Strong Q2 Results and Raises Outlook
Positive
May 7, 2026
Valvoline Inc. reported strong second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 7, 2026, with sales from continuing operations rising 25% to $504 million and system-wide store sales up 20% to $987 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. System-wide...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.