Valvoline Inc (VVV)
NYSE:VVV
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Valvoline
(NYSE:VVV)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▲(4.17% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/07/26
The score is anchored by acceptable operating fundamentals but capped by high balance-sheet leverage and uneven cash-flow quality. A strong, guidance-raising earnings call lifts the outlook, while technicals are mixed and valuation is unattractive/unclear given the negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Solid Core Profitability
Valvoline's persistent mid-to-high single digit net margins and strong gross/EBIT margins reflect a durable, service-oriented business with recurring revenue per vehicle. Sustainable margins support operating cash flow, enable reinvestment in growth and network support, and provide a buffer versus cyclical volume swings.
Negative Factors
High Balance-Sheet Leverage
Very elevated leverage materially increases financial risk: sensitivity to interest rates and refinancing, constrained flexibility for buybacks or acquisitions, and a priority on debt reduction that limits capital allocation. High leverage amplifies earnings volatility into solvency and liquidity risk over time.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Solid Core Profitability
Valvoline's persistent mid-to-high single digit net margins and strong gross/EBIT margins reflect a durable, service-oriented business with recurring revenue per vehicle. Sustainable margins support operating cash flow, enable reinvestment in growth and network support, and provide a buffer versus cyclical volume swings.
Read all positive factors
Valvoline (VVV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.35B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth5.90%
EPS Growth-67.77%
CountryUS
Employees10,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.67
Shares Outstanding127,315,830
10 Day Avg. Volume1,532,730
30 Day Avg. Volume1,644,052
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio17.77
Price to Book (P/B)13.57
Price to Sales (P/S)2.69
P/FCF Ratio120.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.86Price Target Upside18.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.05B
Valvoline Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valvoline Inc. manufactures, markets, and supplies, engine and automotive maintenance products and services. It operates through two segments, Retail Services and Global Products. The company offers lubricants for passenger car, light duty, and he...
How the Company Makes Money
Valvoline makes money primarily by selling automotive maintenance services and related products to retail customers through its quick-lube service centers. The core revenue stream is service revenue from oil changes and other preventative maintena...
Valvoline Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational execution with robust top-line growth (25% net sales growth), significant EBITDA and cash-flow improvement, early and better-than-expected contributions from the Breeze acquisition, and tangible SG&A leverage. Offsetting these positives are emerging lubricant cost pressure tied to the Middle East conflict, near-term pricing and inventory lags, modest margin headwinds from new-store depreciation and Breeze dilution (though less than initially forecast), and a still-elevated leverage ratio. Management raised full-year profitability and same-store sales outlooks but maintained a measured stance for the back half given the cost and geopolitical uncertainty. On balance, the positive operational and financial momentum outweighs the risks called out.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales of $504 million, up 25% year-over-year; systemwide store sales increased nearly 20%; systemwide same-store sales grew 8.2% (and 14% on a 2-year stack). Ticket accounted for ~2/3 of the comp and transactions also grew across the network.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Headwinds from Product Costs and Store Depreciation
Reported gross margin rate was 37.1%, down 20 basis points year-over-year; other service delivery costs including new store depreciation weighed on margins. Excluding depreciation, gross margin would have improved by 40 basis points.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales of $504 million, up 25% year-over-year; systemwide store sales increased nearly 20%; systemwide same-store sales grew 8.2% (and 14% on a 2-year stack). Ticket accounted for ~2/3 of the comp and transactions also grew across the network.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Valvoline said it is raising its full‑year same‑store sales, EBITDA and EPS outlook, citing strong Q2 results that included net sales of $504 million (+25%), systemwide store sales up nearly 20%, same‑store sales +8.2% (14% on a 2‑year stack) with ticket driving ~2/3 of the comp, EBITDA of $134 million (+28%) and a 26.5% margin (+60 bps), EPS of $0.41 (+21%, including $0.06/share of interest), YTD operating cash flow of $160 million and free cash flow of $45 million (up ~$57 million), and improved leverage (net debt/adjusted EBITDA 3.1x, down 20 bps). Management noted gross margin was 37.1% (down 20 bps; +40 bps ex‑depreciation), SG&A was 18% (down 70 bps), and Breeze Auto Care contributed better than expected (reducing anticipated EBITDA dilution to less than the prior ~100‑bp estimate). They cautioned that base‑oil cost pressure has emerged in Q3 tied to the Middle East conflict, that most product cost moves are passed through to franchisees via the base oil index and that company and some franchisees have taken price increases to mitigate dollar‑level cost impacts, but they remain measured given uncertainty while expecting to deliver the updated financial commitments and new‑store growth (31 additions in Q2; total store count 2,409).Valvoline Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.76B | 1.71B | 1.62B | 1.44B | 1.24B | 1.04B |
| Gross Profit | 678.10M | 658.50M | 618.80M | 544.50M | 476.40M | 432.30M |
| EBITDA | 391.60M | 510.70M | 367.20M | 368.80M | 284.80M | 430.40M |
| Net Income | 86.30M | 210.70M | 211.50M | 1.42B | 424.30M | 420.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.40B | 2.67B | 2.44B | 2.89B | 3.42B | 3.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 69.90M | 51.60M | 68.30M | 756.60M | 23.40M | 122.60M |
| Total Debt | 2.42B | 1.67B | 1.63B | 2.07B | 2.14B | 2.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.09B | 2.33B | 2.25B | 2.69B | 3.11B | 3.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 307.60M | 338.50M | 185.60M | 203.20M | 306.60M | 134.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 57.80M | 38.00M | 40.70M | -221.30M | 152.20M | 300.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 320.80M | 297.20M | 265.10M | -40.80M | 284.20M | 403.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -896.50M | -201.10M | 136.80M | 2.04B | -207.60M | -399.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 584.50M | -112.90M | -746.30M | -1.67B | -218.90M | -535.50M |
Valvoline Technical Analysis
Positive
34.56
Price Trends
35.54
Negative
33.37
Positive
34.87
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.33
Negative
53.15
Neutral
22.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VVV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.81, below the 50-day MA of 35.54, and below the 200-day MA of 34.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VVV.
Valvoline Risk Analysis
Valvoline disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Valvoline reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Valvoline Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $12.81B | 4.35 | 6.25% | 4.26% | -1.08% | ― | |
72 Outperform | $71.75B | 35.24 | 27.33% | 2.24% | -1.34% | 114.86% | |
69 Neutral | $13.70B | 3.68 | 7.26% | 6.88% | 37.27% | -19.56% | |
67 Neutral | $70.28B | 14.57 | 17.63% | 2.74% | -2.53% | 385.02% | |
62 Neutral | $68.85B | 88.46 | 14.72% | 3.68% | -1.33% | 130.72% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $4.35B | -28.28 | 28.57% | ― | 5.90% | -67.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
VVV
Valvoline
34.17
0.27
0.80%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
71.08
38.41
117.55%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
245.78
98.96
67.40%
PSX
Phillips 66
171.72
66.40
63.04%
VLO
Valero Energy
236.69
118.44
100.16%
SUN
Sunoco
66.91
14.07
26.64%
Valvoline Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valvoline Delivers Strong Q2 Results and Raises Outlook
Positive
May 7, 2026
Valvoline Inc. reported strong second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 7, 2026, with sales from continuing operations rising 25% to $504 million and system-wide store sales up 20% to $987 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. System-wide...
Executive/Board Changes
Valvoline Promotes Jordan Denny to Chief Accounting Officer
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
Effective March 6, 2026, Valvoline Inc. appointed Jordan M. Denny as Chief Accounting Officer and Controller, succeeding Dione R. Sturgeon, who transitioned to the role of Vice President, Treasurer and Tax. Denny brings more than a decade of progr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.