Valvoline (VVV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.97B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.05M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 56.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.77
• Revenue Growth: 5.64%
• EPS Growth: 0.96%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 127,315,830
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,555,109
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,049,634
• PEG Ratio: 17.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 13.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.69
• P/FCF Ratio: 120.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.60
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.36
• 1Y Price Target: $40.92
• Price Target Upside: 7.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.7
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.04B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $37.00 ▼(-2.73% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/05/26

The score is capped primarily by elevated balance-sheet leverage and a high P/E valuation, despite solid underlying operating results and improved cash generation. Technicals are constructive with strong momentum and price above key moving averages, while the earnings call supports the outlook via reiterated guidance and strong Q1 execution, tempered by higher interest expense and integration-related margin pressure.

Positive Factors

Dual revenue model & strong brand

Valvoline's combination of DIY product sales and DIFM service centers, supported by very high customer satisfaction (4.7 stars, NPS >80%), creates durable repeat demand and cross‑sell opportunities. Brand strength supports pricing power and resilience across economic cycles, sustaining long‑term revenue streams.

Scale expansion from Breeze acquisition

The Breeze acquisition materially increases store footprint and immediately adds incremental revenue and EBITDA as management estimates (~$160M revenue, ~$31M EBITDA over ten months). Greater scale enhances unit economics, purchasing leverage and network effects that can lift margins as integration progresses.

Healthy core operating margins

Consistent mid‑high single digit net margins and strong gross/EBIT margins indicate durable underlying profitability across product and service segments. Sustainable margin structure supports operating cash generation, reinvestment in the network and potential long‑term value creation if maintained.

Negative Factors

Elevated balance‑sheet leverage

Very high leverage amplifies financial risk: it increases sensitivity to rising interest rates, heightens refinancing risk and restricts capital allocation. Management must prioritize deleveraging, which can delay buybacks or growth investments and pressure returns if earnings weaken.

Thin & volatile free cash flow conversion

Modest FCF (≈$58M) and low conversion (~13% of net income), plus historical swings, limit the company's ability to rapidly pay down debt or fund M&A organically. Persistent working capital, capex or integration costs could further constrain cash available for deleveraging or strategic initiatives.

Integration margin drag & controls remediation

Management expects a near‑term ≈100bp EBITDA hit from immature Breeze stores while integrating operations. Coupled with a material weakness in business‑process controls and higher forecast interest expense, this can depress margins, complicate reporting and slow realization of acquisition synergies.

Valvoline Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valvoline Inc. manufactures, markets, and supplies, engine and automotive maintenance products and services. It operates through two segments, Retail Services and Global Products. The company offers lubricants for passenger car, light duty, and heavy duty; antifreeze/coolants for original equipment manufacturers; functional and maintenance chemicals, such as brake fluids and power steering fluids, as well as specialty coatings for automotive and industrial applications; and oil and air filters for light-duty vehicles. It also provides batteries, windshield wiper blades, light bulbs, serpentine belts, and drain plugs. In addition, the company operates Valvoline instant oil change service centers. As of September 30, 2021, it operated and franchised approximately 1,594 quick-lube locations under the Valvoline Instant Oil Change brand in the United States and the Great Canadian Oil Change brand in Canada. The company also serves car dealers, general repair shops, and third-party quick lube locations, as well as through distributors and licensees. It has operations in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.

How the Company Makes Money

Valvoline generates revenue primarily through the sale of automotive lubricants and related products in both the DIY and DIFM segments. The DIY segment earns income from retail sales of engine oils, maintenance products, and other automotive supplies through various channels, including retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and distribution networks. The DIFM segment contributes revenue through its chain of Valvoline Instant Oil Change centers, where customers pay for oil change services and maintenance. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships with automotive retailers and service providers, enhancing its market presence and distribution capabilities. Valvoline's focus on brand loyalty and customer service further solidifies its revenue streams.

Valvoline Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is solid (TTM gross margin ~39%, EBIT ~17%, net ~9%) and revenue is still growing (+2.8%), but the balance sheet is a major risk: very high leverage (TTM debt ~$2.04B vs equity ~$308M; debt-to-equity ~4.9x) and historically volatile earnings/cash flow. Free cash flow improved (TTM ~$58M) but conversion is thin (~13% of net income).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is $1.76B with modest growth (+2.8%), showing continued top-line expansion but a clear slowdown versus the stronger growth seen earlier in the period. Profitability is solid and fairly stable on a core basis (TTM gross margin ~39%, EBIT margin ~17%, net margin ~9%), but margins are below the prior annual peak (FY2025 net margin ~12%). Net income has also been volatile across years (notably an outsized FY2023 result), which reduces confidence in the earnings run-rate even though current operating profitability looks healthy.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key weakness: TTM total debt is ~$2.04B against equity of ~$308M, implying very high balance-sheet leverage (debt-to-equity ~4.9x in the latest periods and even higher historically). While reported returns on equity are high, they are amplified by the small equity base rather than purely by operational strength. Total assets are ~$3.40B, but the elevated leverage profile increases sensitivity to interest rates, refinancing conditions, and any earnings downturn.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive in the latest period with TTM operating cash flow of ~$321M, and free cash flow improved to ~$58M (strong growth vs the prior period). However, free cash flow conversion remains relatively thin versus earnings (TTM free cash flow is only ~13% of net income), suggesting working-capital, capex, or other cash uses are absorbing a meaningful portion of profits. Cash flow performance has also shown meaningful swings historically (including a year with negative operating and free cash flow), which keeps the cash-flow profile from scoring higher despite the recent improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.76B	1.71B	1.62B	1.44B	1.24B	1.04B
Gross Profit	678.10M	658.50M	618.80M	544.50M	476.40M	432.30M
EBITDA	391.60M	510.70M	367.20M	368.80M	284.80M	430.40M
Net Income	86.30M	210.70M	211.50M	1.42B	424.30M	420.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.40B	2.67B	2.44B	2.89B	3.42B	3.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.90M	51.60M	68.30M	756.60M	23.40M	122.60M
Total Debt	2.42B	1.67B	1.63B	2.07B	2.14B	2.07B
Total Liabilities	3.09B	2.33B	2.25B	2.69B	3.11B	3.06B
Stockholders Equity	307.60M	338.50M	185.60M	203.20M	306.60M	134.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	57.80M	38.00M	40.70M	-221.30M	152.20M	300.80M
Operating Cash Flow	320.80M	297.20M	265.10M	-40.80M	284.20M	403.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-896.50M	-201.10M	136.80M	2.04B	-207.60M	-399.90M
Financing Cash Flow	584.50M	-112.90M	-746.30M	-1.67B	-218.90M	-535.50M

Valvoline Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 38.04
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VVV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.77, above the 50-day MA of 33.27, and above the 200-day MA of 35.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VVV.

Valvoline Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	72 Outperform	$61.86B	14.31	15.55%	3.68%	-10.56%	-53.06%
SUN	72 Outperform	$9.46B	27.05	5.60%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
MPC	69 Neutral	$58.70B	14.77	19.33%	2.24%	-6.37%	-25.83%
VLO	69 Neutral	$60.80B	26.33	9.71%	2.74%	-8.48%	-56.92%
DINO	68 Neutral	$9.13B	15.99	6.19%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
VVV	60 Neutral	$4.97B	56.62	33.01%	―	5.64%	0.96%

Valvoline Corporate Events

Valvoline posts strong quarter amid Breeze acquisition gains

Valvoline reported that for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, net sales rose 11% to $462 million and system-wide same-store sales climbed 5.8%, while acquisition-driven store growth offset an FTC-mandated divestiture that produced a $32 million loss from continuing operations; adjusted EBITDA increased 14% to $117 million, and adjusted EPS grew 16% to $0.37, reflecting the benefits of the 200 net stores added, including 162 from the Breeze acquisition, alongside a $1.7 billion debt load tied to the deal.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Buy with a $41.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.

Valvoline Shareholders Approve 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan

At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on January 28, 2026, Valvoline Inc. obtained shareholder approval for a new 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan, replacing its 2016 incentive plan and updating the company’s long-term compensation framework for executives and employees. Shareholders also elected all director nominees to one-year terms, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2026, and supported holding annual advisory votes on executive compensation, with 92.2% of eligible shares represented, underscoring broad investor engagement and backing for the company’s governance and compensation policies.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Buy with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.

Valvoline Announces Retirement of Longtime Chief Financial Officer

Valvoline Inc. announced that Senior Vice President Mary E. Meixelsperger, who also served as the company’s Chief Financial Officer from June 2016 through May 19, 2025, retired from the company effective December 29, 2025. The leadership change closes a nearly nine-year tenure in Valvoline’s top finance role for Meixelsperger, marking a notable transition in the company’s senior management ranks, though the company emphasized its appreciation for her service and contribution to its financial stewardship.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.

Valvoline Hosts Investor Update on Growth Strategy

On December 11, 2025, Valvoline Inc. will host an Investor Update in New York to discuss its business strategy and outlook. The company aims to drive growth by integrating Breeze Autocare’s Oil Changers stores and executing a growth strategy focused on enhancing shareholder value, expanding its network, and innovating to meet customer needs. Valvoline’s leadership emphasizes a disciplined capital allocation policy and the pursuit of synergies through acquisitions, positioning itself as a leader in the automotive services market.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.

Valvoline Completes Acquisition of Breeze Autocare

On December 1, 2025, Valvoline Inc. completed the acquisition of Breeze Autocare from Greenbriar Equity Group, enhancing its network and customer reach. The acquisition, valued at $593 million, was financed through a new $740 million incremental senior secured term loan B credit facility. This strategic move is expected to bolster Valvoline’s position in the automotive maintenance sector, although it required divesting 45 stores to comply with FTC regulations.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Hold with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.

Valvoline Nominates New Board Members for Strategic Growth

On November 13, 2025, Valvoline Inc. announced the retirement of board members Mary J. Twinem and Vada O. Manager, effective at the 2026 Annual Meeting, with no disagreements cited. On November 19, 2025, the company nominated Janet Wong and Chris Carr to join the board, bringing extensive financial and retail expertise to support Valvoline’s strategic priorities and growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Hold with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.

Valvoline to Acquire Breeze Autocare by December

Valvoline reported its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 results, highlighting a sales growth of 6% to $1.7 billion and a 19th consecutive year of system-wide same-store sales growth. The company plans to complete the acquisition of Breeze Autocare on December 1, 2025, which will add 162 stores to its network, enhancing its market presence. Despite a decline in reported income from continuing operations, Valvoline achieved an increase in adjusted EBITDA and returned $60 million to shareholders through share repurchases. The company is well-positioned for fiscal 2026, with expectations of continued growth and an investor update scheduled for December 11, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Hold with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.