Valvoline (VVV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.85B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.94M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: 5.64%
• EPS Growth: 0.96%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 127,157,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,403,465
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,939,153
• PEG Ratio: 17.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 13.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.69
• P/FCF Ratio: 120.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.62
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.64
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.46
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.83
• 1Y Price Target: $38.00
• Price Target Upside: 25.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $33.00 ▲(8.95% Upside)

Valvoline's overall score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, tempered by technical indicators showing bearish trends and valuation concerns. The company's growth prospects are promising, but high leverage and cash flow inconsistencies pose risks.

Positive Factors

Consistent Revenue Growth

Valvoline's consistent revenue growth through increased store sales and same-store sales indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial stability.

Strategic Acquisition

The acquisition of Breeze Autocare, with FTC approval, enhances Valvoline's market position and service offerings, potentially driving future growth and competitive advantage.

Leadership in Technology

The appointment of a seasoned technology leader strengthens Valvoline's focus on innovation and cybersecurity, crucial for sustaining competitive edge in a tech-driven market.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Increased leverage due to acquisitions raises financial risk, potentially affecting cash flow and limiting future investment flexibility, impacting long-term financial health.

Increased Capital Expenditures

Higher capital expenditures can strain financial resources, impacting cash flow and profitability, potentially hindering future investment and growth opportunities.

Volatile Net Profit Margin

Volatility in net profit margins suggests potential instability in earnings, which could affect investor confidence and long-term financial performance.

Valvoline Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valvoline Inc. is a leading global provider of automotive maintenance products and services, primarily focusing on engine oils and lubricants. Established in 1866, the company operates through two main segments: the DIY (Do-It-Yourself) segment, which offers consumer products such as motor oils, and the DIFM (Do-It-For-Me) segment, providing professional services through Valvoline Instant Oil Change centers. Valvoline is recognized for its innovative formulations and commitment to quality, catering to a diverse range of vehicles and machinery.

How the Company Makes Money

Valvoline generates revenue primarily through the sale of automotive lubricants and related products in both the DIY and DIFM segments. The DIY segment earns income from retail sales of engine oils, maintenance products, and other automotive supplies through various channels, including retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and distribution networks. The DIFM segment contributes revenue through its chain of Valvoline Instant Oil Change centers, where customers pay for oil change services and maintenance. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships with automotive retailers and service providers, enhancing its market presence and distribution capabilities. Valvoline's focus on brand loyalty and customer service further solidifies its revenue streams.

Valvoline Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Valvoline shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, but high leverage and inconsistent cash flow present risks. The company has a robust net profit margin, yet its reliance on debt financing is concerning.

Income Statement

Valvoline has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in gross profit margins. However, the net profit margin has shown volatility, particularly due to a significant spike in 2023, which may not be sustainable. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, indicating strong operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk. However, the return on equity is strong, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is low, reflecting a reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Valvoline's cash flow performance is mixed. While operating cash flow is positive, free cash flow has shown a declining trend, with negative growth in recent years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is reasonable, but the free cash flow to net income ratio has been inconsistent.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.71B	―	1.71B	1.62B	1.44B	1.24B
Gross Profit	658.50M	―	658.50M	618.80M	544.50M	476.40M
EBITDA	485.20M	―	485.70M	367.20M	368.80M	284.80M
Net Income	210.70M	―	210.70M	211.50M	1.42B	424.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.67B	―	2.67B	2.44B	2.89B	3.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	51.60M	―	51.60M	68.30M	756.60M	23.40M
Total Debt	1.67B	―	1.67B	1.63B	2.07B	2.14B
Total Liabilities	2.33B	―	2.33B	2.25B	2.69B	3.11B
Stockholders Equity	338.50M	―	338.50M	185.60M	203.20M	306.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	38.00M	―	38.00M	40.70M	-221.30M	152.20M
Operating Cash Flow	297.20M	―	297.20M	265.10M	-40.80M	284.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-201.10M	―	-201.10M	136.80M	2.04B	-207.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-112.90M	―	-112.90M	-746.30M	-1.67B	-218.90M

Valvoline Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 30.29
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VVV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.27, below the 50-day MA of 33.39, and below the 200-day MA of 35.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VVV.

Valvoline Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	73 Outperform	$55.18B	37.43	5.38%	3.40%	-10.56%	-53.06%
SUN	73 Outperform	$8.53B	18.99	8.27%	6.48%	-5.18%	-33.14%
VLO	71 Outperform	$55.07B	37.58	6.07%	2.50%	-8.48%	-56.92%
MPC	70 Outperform	$58.96B	20.92	15.98%	1.90%	-6.37%	-25.83%
DINO	68 Neutral	$9.75B	25.51	4.07%	3.77%	-9.55%	27.65%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
VVV	59 Neutral	$3.85B	18.51	81.97%	―	5.64%	0.96%

Valvoline Corporate Events

Valvoline Inc. Reports Strong Fiscal Year 2025 Growth

Valvoline Inc., a leader in preventive automotive maintenance, operates a network of service centers across the U.S. and Canada, offering quick and reliable services such as oil changes and vehicle maintenance. In its latest earnings report, Valvoline Inc. announced a fiscal year 2025 revenue of $1.7 billion, marking a 6% increase from the previous year, alongside a notable 19th consecutive year of system-wide same-store sales growth. The company also revealed plans to finalize the acquisition of Breeze Autocare, expected to close in December, which will add 162 stores to its portfolio. Key financial highlights include a 6% growth in system-wide store sales and a 2% increase in earnings per diluted share, despite a flat income from continuing operations. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 6%, reflecting the company’s strategic refranchising efforts. Looking ahead, Valvoline anticipates further growth in fiscal 2026, projecting system-wide same-store sales growth of 4% to 6% and net revenues between $2.0 and $2.1 billion. The company remains optimistic about its strategic initiatives and future expansion plans.

Valvoline Inc. Reports Strong Growth Amid Challenges

Valvoline Inc. recently held its earnings call, revealing a strong financial performance marked by significant growth in store and same-store sales, as well as EBITDA. However, the company is navigating challenges such as increased capital expenditures, rising product costs, and a higher leverage ratio due to the Breeze acquisition. This mix of positive financial results and operational challenges suggests a need for cautious optimism moving forward.

Valvoline Nominates New Board Members for Strategic Growth

On November 13, 2025, Valvoline Inc. announced the retirement of board members Mary J. Twinem and Vada O. Manager, effective at the 2026 Annual Meeting, with no disagreements cited. On November 19, 2025, the company nominated Janet Wong and Chris Carr to join the board, bringing extensive financial and retail expertise to support Valvoline’s strategic priorities and growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Hold with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.

Valvoline to Acquire Breeze Autocare by December

Valvoline reported its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 results, highlighting a sales growth of 6% to $1.7 billion and a 19th consecutive year of system-wide same-store sales growth. The company plans to complete the acquisition of Breeze Autocare on December 1, 2025, which will add 162 stores to its network, enhancing its market presence. Despite a decline in reported income from continuing operations, Valvoline achieved an increase in adjusted EBITDA and returned $60 million to shareholders through share repurchases. The company is well-positioned for fiscal 2026, with expectations of continued growth and an investor update scheduled for December 11, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Hold with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.