Valvoline (VVV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.07B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.75M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.88
• Revenue Growth: 7.53%
• EPS Growth: 74.04%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 127,114,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,116,985
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,745,927
• PEG Ratio: -0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 29.34
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.36
• P/FCF Ratio: 133.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.00
• 1Y Price Target: $46.67
• Price Target Upside: 45.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.88
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.93B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(12.43% Upside)

Valvoline's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and a positive earnings call, which are offset by technical indicators suggesting bearish momentum and concerns over high leverage. The stock's valuation is fair, but the lack of a dividend yield may deter income investors.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Valvoline's strong sales growth reflects robust demand and effective market strategies, indicating a durable expansion in market reach.

Store Expansion

Continued store expansion enhances Valvoline's service network, strengthening its competitive position and customer accessibility.

Partnership with Arkestro

The partnership with Arkestro enhances procurement efficiency, reducing costs and improving operational effectiveness, supporting long-term profitability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses financial risks, potentially limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, affecting long-term stability.

SG&A Cost Increase

Rising SG&A costs due to tech investments may pressure margins, impacting profitability unless offset by revenue growth or cost efficiencies.

Breeze Transaction Uncertainty

Uncertainty in closing the Breeze transaction could delay strategic initiatives and create financial unpredictability, affecting future growth plans.

Valvoline Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valvoline Inc. manufactures, markets, and supplies, engine and automotive maintenance products and services. It operates through two segments, Retail Services and Global Products. The company offers lubricants for passenger car, light duty, and heavy duty; antifreeze/coolants for original equipment manufacturers; functional and maintenance chemicals, such as brake fluids and power steering fluids, as well as specialty coatings for automotive and industrial applications; and oil and air filters for light-duty vehicles. It also provides batteries, windshield wiper blades, light bulbs, serpentine belts, and drain plugs. In addition, the company operates Valvoline instant oil change service centers. As of September 30, 2021, it operated and franchised approximately 1,594 quick-lube locations under the Valvoline Instant Oil Change brand in the United States and the Great Canadian Oil Change brand in Canada. The company also serves car dealers, general repair shops, and third-party quick lube locations, as well as through distributors and licensees. It has operations in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.

How the Company Makes Money

Valvoline generates revenue primarily through the sale of its lubricants and automotive products across its Consumer Products and Quick Lubes segments. The Consumer Products segment includes retail sales of motor oils and automotive chemicals through various distribution channels, including mass retailers, automotive supply stores, and online platforms. The Quick Lubes segment consists of revenue from its Valvoline Instant Oil Change service centers, which offer oil changes and other automotive maintenance services. Key revenue streams include product sales, service fees from oil changes, and franchise fees from its network of oil change centers. Additionally, Valvoline benefits from strategic partnerships with automotive manufacturers and retailers, enhancing its distribution and brand presence in the market.

Valvoline Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Valvoline demonstrates strong profitability and revenue growth, with efficient operations reflected in solid EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, high leverage poses a risk to financial stability, despite strong returns on equity. Cash flow improvements are notable, but the company should focus on reducing leverage to enhance financial health.

Income Statement

Valvoline's income statement shows strong profitability with a TTM gross profit margin of 38.49% and a net profit margin of 13.87%. The revenue growth rate of 5.1% TTM indicates steady growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 26.70% and 33.52% respectively, reflecting efficient operations. However, the net profit margin has decreased from the previous year, indicating some pressure on net earnings.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.44 TTM, which is a concern as it indicates significant leverage. Return on equity is strong at 95.98%, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is low, highlighting potential risks in financial stability due to high leverage.

Cash Flow

Valvoline's cash flow statement shows a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 97.80% TTM, indicating better cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.84, suggesting good conversion of income to cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.16, indicating limited free cash flow relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.69B	1.62B	1.44B	1.24B	1.04B	727.00M
Gross Profit	651.30M	618.80M	544.50M	476.40M	432.30M	301.00M
EBITDA	567.10M	367.20M	368.80M	312.10M	278.60M	591.00M
Net Income	234.60M	211.50M	1.42B	424.30M	420.30M	316.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.56B	2.44B	2.89B	3.42B	3.19B	3.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	68.30M	68.30M	756.60M	23.40M	122.60M	760.00M
Total Debt	1.39B	1.37B	2.07B	1.92B	1.86B	2.19B
Total Liabilities	2.25B	2.25B	2.69B	3.11B	3.06B	3.13B
Stockholders Equity	313.60M	185.60M	203.20M	306.60M	134.50M	-76.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	44.90M	40.70M	-221.30M	152.20M	300.80M	277.70M
Operating Cash Flow	276.60M	265.10M	-40.80M	284.20M	403.90M	371.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-96.50M	136.80M	2.04B	-207.60M	-399.90M	-222.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-177.50M	-746.30M	-1.67B	-218.90M	-535.50M	450.30M

Valvoline Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 32.02
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VVV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.06, below the 50-day MA of 35.64, and below the 200-day MA of 36.17, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VVV.

Valvoline Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLO	75 Outperform	$54.65B	37.30	6.07%	2.62%	-8.48%	-56.92%
PSX	73 Outperform	$55.87B	37.89	5.38%	3.41%	-10.56%	-53.06%
MPC	70 Outperform	$59.19B	21.00	15.98%	1.86%	-6.37%	-25.83%
DINO	68 Neutral	$10.00B	26.16	4.07%	3.79%	-9.55%	27.65%
SUN	67 Neutral	$7.85B	17.48	8.27%	7.08%	-5.18%	-33.14%
VVV	67 Neutral	$4.07B	14.90	132.49%	―	7.53%	74.04%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Valvoline Corporate Events

Valvoline Extends Merger Termination Date Amid Scrutiny

On February 17, 2025, Valvoline Inc. entered into a merger agreement with OC IntermediateCo, a subsidiary of HoldCo, to acquire the Breeze Autocare business. The merger process faced scrutiny from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, leading to a request for additional information on April 9, 2025. To accommodate this, Valvoline and its partners extended the merger’s termination date to November 15, 2025, or the date of closing, whichever is later, to ensure all conditions are met.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.

Valvoline Inc. Reports Strong Q3 Growth and Expansion

Valvoline Inc., a leader in preventive automotive maintenance, operates over 2,100 service centers across the U.S. and Canada, offering quick and trusted services such as oil changes and other maintenance tasks.

Valvoline Inc. Reports Strong Q3 Earnings Growth

Valvoline Inc. recently held its earnings call, which was marked by a generally positive sentiment. The company reported strong sales and profit growth, robust same-store sales, and effective cost management. Despite facing challenges such as a slow start to the summer holidays, increased SG&A expenses due to tech investments, and uncertainties surrounding the Breeze transaction, the positive aspects such as revenue growth and operational improvements were emphasized.

Valvoline Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

On August 6, 2025, Valvoline Inc. reported its third-quarter results for the period ending June 30, 2025, showcasing a 4% increase in sales to $439 million and a significant profit growth, with income from continuing operations rising by 18%. The company added 46 new stores, contributing to a 10% growth in system-wide store sales. Despite a decrease in miles driven and a slow start to summer holidays, Valvoline demonstrated resilience with positive same-store sales growth. The company also updated its fiscal 2025 guidance, reflecting strong performance expectations and long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (VVV) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valvoline stock, see the VVV Stock Forecast page.