Valvoline Inc (VVV)
NYSE:VVV
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Valvoline
(NYSE:VVV)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▲(8.63% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/10/26
The score is driven primarily by acceptable but risk-capped fundamentals: solid operating margins and improving cash flow are weighed down by very high balance-sheet leverage. Earnings-call commentary is supportive due to strong Q1 execution and reiterated guidance, but near-term integration/interest-cost headwinds and internal-controls remediation add risk. Technically, near-term momentum is weak (below the 20-day average with subdued RSI/Stoch), and valuation support is limited given the negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Sustained Profitability
Consistently healthy margins across gross, EBIT and net levels indicate durable unit economics for routine maintenance services. Strong core profitability supports reinvestment in store growth, funds franchise support, and provides a buffer versus volume swings inherent in vehicle service businesses.
Negative Factors
Very High Leverage
An elevated debt base versus a small equity cushion materially increases solvency and refinancing risk. High leverage magnifies earnings volatility, constrains capital allocation, raises required free cash flow for interest and principal, and leaves less flexibility for organic investment or shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Profitability
Consistently healthy margins across gross, EBIT and net levels indicate durable unit economics for routine maintenance services. Strong core profitability supports reinvestment in store growth, funds franchise support, and provides a buffer versus volume swings inherent in vehicle service businesses.
Read all positive factors
Valvoline (VVV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.24B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.67M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth5.64%
EPS Growth0.96%
CountryUS
Employees10,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding127,315,830
10 Day Avg. Volume1,543,394
30 Day Avg. Volume1,674,220
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio17.77
Price to Book (P/B)13.57
Price to Sales (P/S)2.69
P/FCF Ratio120.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.17Price Target Upside24.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.04B
Valvoline Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valvoline Inc. manufactures, markets, and supplies, engine and automotive maintenance products and services. It operates through two segments, Retail Services and Global Products. The company offers lubricants for passenger car, light duty, and he...
How the Company Makes Money
Valvoline generates revenue primarily through the sale of automotive lubricants and related products in both the DIY and DIFM segments. The DIY segment earns income from retail sales of engine oils, maintenance products, and other automotive suppl...
Valvoline Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operating quarter with double-digit top-line and profit growth, margin expansion, improved cash flow, network expansion via the Breeze acquisition, and strong customer/brand metrics. Notable challenges include a GAAP loss tied to divestitures, higher leverage and interest expense from the transaction, expected near-term EBITDA margin pressure (~100 bps) from immature Breeze stores, weather-driven short-term volume disruption, and an ongoing remediation of business-process internal controls. Management expressed confidence in guidance and integration plans while prioritizing deleveraging.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales of $462.0M, up 11% reported year-over-year and up 15% when adjusted for prior-year refranchising; system-wide same-store sales grew 13.8% on a two-year stack driven largely by ticket increases, net price and premiumization.
Negative Updates
GAAP Loss Impacted by Divestiture
Reported GAAP loss from continuing operations of $32.2M, primarily driven by a loss on the divestiture of certain Breeze stores required by the FTC.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales of $462.0M, up 11% reported year-over-year and up 15% when adjusted for prior-year refranchising; system-wide same-store sales grew 13.8% on a two-year stack driven largely by ticket increases, net price and premiumization.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated fiscal 2026 guidance after a strong Q1 and highlighted many metrics: Q1 net sales $462M (+11% reported, +15% ex‑refranchising); system‑wide same‑store sales +13.8% (two‑year stack); gross margin 37.4% (+50 bps); adjusted EBITDA margin 25.4% (+60 bps); adjusted income from continuing operations $47.6M (GAAP loss $(32.2)M); EPS +16% (+28% ex‑refranchising); operating cash flow $64.8M and free cash flow $7.4M (≈+$20M YoY); net store adds included 162 Breeze stores (one‑month contribution) plus 38 net others; Breeze is expected to contribute roughly $160M of revenue and ~$31M of EBITDA over ten months in FY26 with ~100 bps near‑term EBITDA margin headwind and an ≈$0.20 per‑share EPS drag, pretax interest is forecast to rise ≈$33M, current leverage is ~3.3x net debt/adjusted EBITDA with a target to return to ~2.5x before resuming buybacks, and customer metrics remain strong (4.7‑star network rating, NPS >80%; mobile pilot ≈20 bps contribution to the comp).Valvoline Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.76B | 1.71B | 1.62B | 1.44B | 1.24B | 1.04B |
| Gross Profit | 678.10M | 658.50M | 618.80M | 544.50M | 476.40M | 432.30M |
| EBITDA | 391.60M | 510.70M | 367.20M | 368.80M | 284.80M | 430.40M |
| Net Income | 86.30M | 210.70M | 211.50M | 1.42B | 424.30M | 420.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.40B | 2.67B | 2.44B | 2.89B | 3.42B | 3.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 69.90M | 51.60M | 68.30M | 756.60M | 23.40M | 122.60M |
| Total Debt | 2.42B | 1.67B | 1.63B | 2.07B | 2.14B | 2.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.09B | 2.33B | 2.25B | 2.69B | 3.11B | 3.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 307.60M | 338.50M | 185.60M | 203.20M | 306.60M | 134.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 57.80M | 38.00M | 40.70M | -221.30M | 152.20M | 300.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 320.80M | 297.20M | 265.10M | -40.80M | 284.20M | 403.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -896.50M | -201.10M | 136.80M | 2.04B | -207.60M | -399.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 584.50M | -112.90M | -746.30M | -1.67B | -218.90M | -535.50M |
Valvoline Technical Analysis
Negative
33.14
Price Trends
35.56
Negative
33.26
Positive
34.96
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.34
Negative
43.23
Neutral
31.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VVV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.82, below the 50-day MA of 35.56, and below the 200-day MA of 34.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VVV.
Valvoline Risk Analysis
Valvoline disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Valvoline reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Valvoline Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $64.28B | 11.90 | 15.90% | 3.68% | -10.56% | -53.06% | |
69 Neutral | $72.37B | 10.87 | 9.88% | 2.74% | -8.48% | -56.92% | |
68 Neutral | $13.45B | 13.57 | 7.27% | 6.88% | -5.18% | -33.14% | |
66 Neutral | $66.35B | 12.26 | 24.01% | 2.24% | -6.37% | -25.83% | |
62 Neutral | $10.56B | 14.84 | 6.25% | 4.26% | -9.55% | 27.65% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $4.24B | -28.28 | 28.57% | ― | 5.64% | 0.96% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
VVV
Valvoline
33.14
-0.89
-2.62%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
57.17
30.92
117.81%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
223.93
104.27
87.13%
PSX
Phillips 66
158.76
65.96
71.07%
VLO
Valero Energy
235.58
131.10
125.48%
SUN
Sunoco
64.56
11.84
22.47%
Valvoline Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Valvoline Promotes Jordan Denny to Chief Accounting Officer
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
Effective March 6, 2026, Valvoline Inc. appointed Jordan M. Denny as Chief Accounting Officer and Controller, succeeding Dione R. Sturgeon, who transitioned to the role of Vice President, Treasurer and Tax. Denny brings more than a decade of progr...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Valvoline posts strong quarter amid Breeze acquisition gains
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
Valvoline reported that for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, net sales rose 11% to $462 million and system-wide same-store sales climbed 5.8%, while acquisition-driven store growth offset an FTC-mandated divestiture that produced a $32 million...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Valvoline Shareholders Approve 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on January 28, 2026, Valvoline Inc. obtained shareholder approval for a new 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan, replacing its 2016 incentive plan and updating the company’s long-term compensation fram...
Executive/Board Changes
Valvoline Announces Retirement of Longtime Chief Financial Officer
Neutral
Jan 5, 2026
Valvoline Inc. announced that Senior Vice President Mary E. Meixelsperger, who also served as the company’s Chief Financial Officer from June 2016 through May 19, 2025, retired from the company effective December 29, 2025. The leadership cha...
Business Operations and Strategy
Valvoline Hosts Investor Update on Growth Strategy
Positive
Dec 11, 2025
On December 11, 2025, Valvoline Inc. will host an Investor Update in New York to discuss its business strategy and outlook. The company aims to drive growth by integrating Breeze Autocare’s Oil Changers stores and executing a growth strategy...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.