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Vital Farms
(NASDAQ:VITL)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(3.51% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened current profitability and a material swing to negative operating/free cash flow, despite a low-leverage balance sheet. Management’s reaffirmed guidance and operational traction (distribution gains, price-gap narrowing, SG&A actions) provide partial support, while technicals are neutral and valuation is reasonable but not enough to offset near-term financial and liquidity/covenant risks.
Positive Factors
Distribution Expansion
Broader retail distribution can support sustained volume growth by increasing product availability and household reach. The planned expansion builds on existing gains and provides a durable channel for revenue growth beyond temporary pricing effects.
Negative Factors
Severe Cash Burn
Negative operating and free cash flow materially reduce financial flexibility and increase dependence on external financing. Until earnings and working capital recover, the company may have less capacity to fund capital projects, withstand volatility or support shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Distribution Expansion
Broader retail distribution can support sustained volume growth by increasing product availability and household reach. The planned expansion builds on existing gains and provides a durable channel for revenue growth beyond temporary pricing effects.
Read all positive factors
Vital Farms Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenue by Product
Breaks down revenue by eggs, butter, and other product lines to show which items drive sales and profits. Heavy reliance on eggs points to concentration and exposure to commodity and supply risks, while growth in premium or non-egg lines suggests successful diversification and potential for higher margins. Shifts in product mix also reveal pricing power, promotional pressure, and where Vital Farms is gaining or losing traction with retailers and consumers.
Breaks down revenue by eggs, butter, and other product lines to show which items drive sales and profits. Heavy reliance on eggs points to concentration and exposure to commodity and supply risks, while growth in premium or non-egg lines suggests successful diversification and potential for higher margins. Shifts in product mix also reveal pricing power, promotional pressure, and where Vital Farms is gaining or losing traction with retailers and consumers.
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The Fly
The FlyVital Farms (VITL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$476.97M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth16.37%
EPS Growth-102.23%
CountryUS
Employees739
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.01
Shares Outstanding42,931,522
10 Day Avg. Volume1,543,553
30 Day Avg. Volume2,101,643
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.14
Price to Book (P/B)4.13
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio-30.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.63Price Target Upside22.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$771.19M
Vital Farms Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vital Farms, Inc. is a values-driven food enterprise dedicated to providing ethically sourced, pasture-raised products across the United States. Its diverse product portfolio primarily features a variety of egg-based items, such as fresh shell egg...
How the Company Makes Money
Vital Farms makes money primarily by producing, marketing, and selling branded pasture-raised food products—most notably shell eggs—into U.S. retail and foodservice channels. Revenue is generated when retailers, distributors, and foodservice custo...
Vital Farms Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: Q2 financials were weak (10.1% revenue decline, gross margin compression, and a $26.6M adjusted EBITDA loss) driven by industry oversupply and breaker‑channel impacts, but management has executed a clear remediation plan—narrowing price gaps, securing distribution gains (TDP growth), implementing farmer contract amendments, cutting SG&A (~$6–$7M annualized), and strengthening liquidity with new credit facilities. Management reaffirmed full‑year guidance and expects sequential improvement through Q3 into a stronger Q4. Given the balance of meaningful operational progress and persistent near‑term financial pain, the tone is cautiously constructive.Positive Updates
Distribution Expansion & TDP Growth
Average total distribution points (TDPs) expected to be 150–160 in 2026 (up from 130 in 2025); reached 148.7 TDPs YTD through Q2 and management expects 170–175 TDPs in Q4 2026, supporting volume growth into H2/2027.
Negative Updates
Net Revenue Decline
Net revenue declined 10.1% year‑over‑year to $166.0 million in Q2, driven by a $19.8 million volume‑driven decline in the retail channel (excluding excess breaker and wholesale sales).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Distribution Expansion & TDP Growth
Average total distribution points (TDPs) expected to be 150–160 in 2026 (up from 130 in 2025); reached 148.7 TDPs YTD through Q2 and management expects 170–175 TDPs in Q4 2026, supporting volume growth into H2/2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance of net revenue $775–$800 million and adjusted EBITDA of $0–$10 million, expecting gross margin to exit Q4 at approximately 30%; Q2 net revenue declined 10.1% to $166.0 million with gross profit of $10.9 million (6.6%) and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $26.6 million. Operationally, average price gaps narrowed from ~$2.51 in Q1 to ~$2.36 in Q2 (target $1–$2), driving a >200 bps YoY gain in retail dollar share (MULO+) and a 27% improvement in velocity and new households at a top‑10 retailer since mid‑April; shell‑egg units per store/week/item were up 12.5% since the Q1 call and hit their highest level since Feb 2026 by mid‑July. Distribution is set to expand (TDPs 150–160 average for 2026 vs 130 in 2025; 148.7 YTD through Q2 per Circana; targeted 170–175 TDPs in Q4), and the company expects sequential revenue and adjusted EBITDA improvement in Q3 and stronger leverage in Q4. Q2 included $28.1 million of supply‑management/other discrete gross‑profit impacts (including $19.5M breaker, $0.8M amortization, $7.8M butter exit) and $24.8M of discrete expenses not added back to adjusted EBITDA (including $21.8M peak breaker costs and $3.0M professional fees); full‑year supply‑management costs are now modeled in the mid‑$30 million range (vs $32M prior). SG&A was $40.4M (including $6.3M of discrete items); annualized SG&A run‑rate is expected to be reduced by ~$6–7M from May/July actions. Liquidity: quarter‑end cash $21.2M (had drawn $30M on prior revolver); post‑quarter the company drew a $125M term loan and put in place a $60M ABL (total ~$185M capacity); the board terminated the repurchase program after executing $50M of repurchases at an average $13.29/share earlier in the year; CapEx guidance was reaffirmed at $70–75M.Vital Farms Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 765.67M | 759.44M | 606.31M | 471.86M | 362.05M | 260.90M |
| Gross Profit | 215.33M | 285.68M | 229.93M | 162.33M | 109.44M | 82.90M |
| EBITDA | 31.85M | 106.65M | 81.64M | 40.91M | 8.39M | 3.95M |
| Net Income | 156.00K | 66.28M | 53.39M | 25.57M | 1.25M | 2.43M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 502.08M | 518.74M | 359.33M | 275.18M | 214.67M | 189.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 21.24M | 113.35M | 160.29M | 116.82M | 78.73M | 99.59M |
| Total Debt | 108.25M | 53.49M | 18.71M | 22.56M | 10.69M | 327.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 218.43M | 167.48M | 90.03M | 82.50M | 56.33M | 38.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 283.65M | 351.26M | 269.30M | 192.68M | 158.33M | 151.47M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -126.13M | -48.23M | 35.76M | 39.37M | -18.66M | 971.00K |
| Operating Cash Flow | -16.71M | 33.72M | 64.41M | 50.91M | -8.10M | 17.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -60.74M | -134.25M | -7.03M | 22.38M | -10.04M | -18.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -9.53M | -1.23M | 9.07M | -2.05M | 83.00K | 2.18M |
Vital Farms Technical Analysis
Negative
11.11
Price Trends
12.04
Negative
11.59
Negative
19.14
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.42
Positive
40.95
Neutral
38.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VITL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.57, below the 50-day MA of 12.04, and below the 200-day MA of 19.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VITL.
Vital Farms Risk Analysis
Vital Farms disclosed 128 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vital Farms reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vital Farms Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.95B | 12.62 | 11.82% | 5.33% | -31.68% | -73.76% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $476.97M | -775.89 | 0.05% | ― | 16.37% | -102.23% | |
55 Neutral | $1.59B | 170.41 | 3.03% | 2.80% | 7.20% | -10.41% | |
54 Neutral | $1.28B | 17.43 | 4.38% | 2.40% | 8.32% | 208.64% | |
44 Neutral | $367.21M | -122.55 | -0.70% | 3.81% | 0.76% | -105.51% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
VITL
Vital Farms
10.94
-41.47
-79.13%
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
11.08
2.92
35.70%
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods
83.06
-30.39
-26.79%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
3.71
-0.07
-1.85%
DOLE
Dole
13.63
-0.68
-4.79%
Vital Farms Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Vital Farms Strengthens Corporate Governance Through Bylaw Changes
Neutral
Aug 17, 2026
On August 11, 2026, Vital Farms, Inc. adopted amended and restated bylaws that immediately tightened and expanded advance notice, informational and disclosure requirements for shareholder nominations and proposals, including broader obligations fo...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Vital Farms Secures New Credit Facilities to Boost Liquidity
Negative
Aug 6, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Vital Farms replaced its 2024 revolver with a new $60 million senior secured, asset-based revolving facility led by JPMorgan and a $125 million senior secured term loan arranged by J.P. Morgan and Silver Point, both secured agai...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Vital Farms Shareholders Back Board, Auditors and Pay Policies
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 10, 2026, Vital Farms, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders at which shareholders elected two directors, Russell Diez-Canseco and Kelly Kennedy, to serve terms running until the 2029 annual meeting. The election results, which show...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.