Vital Farms (VITL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.46B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.07M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: 23.56%
• EPS Growth: 15.06%
• Country: US
• Employees: 598
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 44,774,520
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,976,912
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,072,619
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.63
• P/FCF Ratio: 44.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.93
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.63
• 1Y Price Target: $48.90
• Price Target Upside: 50.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $765.08M

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(10.46% Upside)

Vital Farms demonstrates strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, supported by ambitious long-term targets. However, technical indicators and valuation suggest caution, and cash flow management needs improvement to sustain growth.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates expanding market presence and product demand, supporting long-term business sustainability and profitability.

Expansion of Supply Chain

Expanding the supply chain enhances production capacity and supports future growth, aligning with increasing consumer demand for ethical products.

Ambitious Long-term Targets

Setting ambitious financial targets reflects confidence in strategic growth initiatives and positions the company for sustained long-term success.

Negative Factors

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow could hinder future investments and liquidity, posing risks to long-term financial stability and growth initiatives.

Increased Overhead Costs

Rising overhead costs can pressure profit margins, potentially affecting long-term profitability and necessitating cost management strategies.

ERP System Transition Impact

ERP transition disruptions can impact operational efficiency and revenue, highlighting the need for effective change management to ensure stability.

Vital Farms Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vital Farms, Inc., an ethical food company, provides pasture-raised products in the United States. It offers shell eggs, butter, hard-boiled eggs, ghee, liquid whole eggs, and egg bite products. Vital Farms, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Vital Farms generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pasture-raised eggs and butter products. The company operates a direct-to-retail model, supplying its products to major grocery chains and retailers across the United States. Key revenue streams include the sale of shell eggs, liquid eggs, and butter, which are marketed as premium products due to their ethical sourcing and superior quality. Vital Farms has established significant partnerships with various retailers, enhancing its distribution network and brand visibility. Additionally, the company benefits from the growing consumer demand for sustainable and ethically produced food, which further drives its sales and market presence.

Vital Farms Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vital Farms shows strong revenue growth and profitability with a solid balance sheet. However, cash flow management is a concern due to negative free cash flow growth and insufficient operating cash flow coverage.

Income Statement

Vital Farms has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 6.02%. The company maintains strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 37.64% and a net profit margin of 7.84% in the TTM. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 11.02% and 12.80%, respectively, indicating efficient operations. However, the slight decline in net profit margin from the previous year suggests potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The company has a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, indicating low financial leverage. The return on equity is robust at 18.39%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 71.91%, showcasing a solid equity base. However, the slight increase in debt levels compared to the previous period could be monitored for future leverage trends.

Cash Flow

Vital Farms faces challenges in cash flow management, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -115.74% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.26, suggesting that operating cash flows are not fully covering net income. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio indicates that the company is not generating sufficient free cash flow relative to its net income, which could impact future investments or debt repayments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	711.88M	606.31M	471.86M	362.05M	260.90M	214.28M
Gross Profit	269.13M	229.93M	162.33M	109.44M	82.90M	74.53M
EBITDA	100.17M	81.64M	40.91M	8.39M	3.95M	14.69M
Net Income	60.54M	53.39M	25.57M	1.25M	2.43M	8.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	481.50M	359.33M	275.18M	214.67M	189.94M	171.37M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	145.05M	160.29M	116.82M	78.73M	99.59M	97.90M
Total Debt	56.28M	18.71M	22.56M	10.69M	327.00K	798.00K
Total Liabilities	150.29M	90.03M	82.50M	56.33M	38.18M	28.99M
Stockholders Equity	331.22M	269.30M	192.68M	158.33M	151.47M	142.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-19.47M	35.76M	39.37M	-18.66M	971.00K	1.40M
Operating Cash Flow	42.72M	64.41M	50.91M	-8.10M	17.68M	11.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-99.72M	-7.03M	22.38M	-10.04M	-18.44M	-77.84M
Financing Cash Flow	1.26M	9.07M	-2.05M	83.00K	2.18M	94.41M

Vital Farms Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 32.59
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VITL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.58, below the 50-day MA of 34.15, and below the 200-day MA of 37.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VITL.

Vital Farms Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CALM	84 Outperform	$4.04B	3.17	55.20%	10.53%	65.80%	197.95%
VITL	73 Outperform	$1.46B	24.70	20.71%	―	23.56%	15.06%
FDP	69 Neutral	$1.71B	21.90	3.95%	3.34%	1.11%	414.23%
DOLE	63 Neutral	$1.45B	49.33	8.75%	2.23%	7.09%	-83.75%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
AGRO	52 Neutral	$1.09B	34.05	1.69%	4.40%	-7.37%	-84.53%
LND	48 Neutral	$360.87M	-78.68	-1.12%	3.39%	-3.22%	-108.24%

Vital Farms Corporate Events

Vital Farms Sets Ambitious 2030 Financial Targets

On December 16, 2025, Vital Farms announced its ambitious financial targets, aiming for $2 billion in net revenue by 2030, with adjusted EBITDA margins of 15% to 17% and gross margins exceeding 35% between 2025 and 2030. The company plans to achieve these goals by increasing brand awareness, expanding distribution, and scaling its supply chain. Vital Farms also provided updates on its fiscal 2025 and 2026 outlooks, expecting net revenue of $755 to $765 million in 2025 and $930 to $950 million in 2026, reflecting significant growth. The recent completion of its ERP transition and the introduction of a new processing facility, Vital Crossroads, in Indiana, are expected to support these long-term objectives.