Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL)
NASDAQ:VITL
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Vital Farms
(NASDAQ:VITL)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▼(-10.50% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weak recent cash generation (negative TTM free cash flow), bearish technicals, and unfavorable valuation signals (negative P/E, no dividend). Offsetting these are strong multi-year revenue growth and generally sound balance-sheet positioning, plus constructive longer-term messaging from the earnings call (growth guidance, operational progress, and a buyback), though near-term margin and demand/order volatility remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Multi‑year Revenue Momentum
Sustained double‑digit top‑line growth and material EBITDA expansion reflect durable demand for the premium egg franchise and demonstrated operating leverage. This scale improves bargaining with retailers, funds investments in capacity and marketing, and underpins the company’s ability to pursue its 2030 revenue and margin targets.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
A large TTM FCF swing and poor earnings‑to‑cash conversion indicate working‑capital or investment strain. If negative cash generation persists, it will constrain reinvestment, increase reliance on liquidity or debt, and limit the company’s ability to fund buybacks and capex without altering strategy or capital structure.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Multi‑year Revenue Momentum
Sustained double‑digit top‑line growth and material EBITDA expansion reflect durable demand for the premium egg franchise and demonstrated operating leverage. This scale improves bargaining with retailers, funds investments in capacity and marketing, and underpins the company’s ability to pursue its 2030 revenue and margin targets.
Read all positive factors
Vital Farms Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenue by Product
Breaks down revenue by eggs, butter, and other product lines to show which items drive sales and profits. Heavy reliance on eggs points to concentration and exposure to commodity and supply risks, while growth in premium or non-egg lines suggests successful diversification and potential for higher margins. Shifts in product mix also reveal pricing power, promotional pressure, and where Vital Farms is gaining or losing traction with retailers and consumers.
Breaks down revenue by eggs, butter, and other product lines to show which items drive sales and profits. Heavy reliance on eggs points to concentration and exposure to commodity and supply risks, while growth in premium or non-egg lines suggests successful diversification and potential for higher margins. Shifts in product mix also reveal pricing power, promotional pressure, and where Vital Farms is gaining or losing traction with retailers and consumers.
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The Fly
The FlyVital Farms (VITL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$436.63M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.7
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth26.40%
EPS Growth-9.26%
CountryUS
Employees598
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.08
Shares Outstanding42,848,454
10 Day Avg. Volume3,564,803
30 Day Avg. Volume3,967,663
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.14
Price to Book (P/B)4.13
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio-30.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.59
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.59Price Target Upside-5.67% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$790.75M
Vital Farms Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vital Farms, Inc., an ethical food company, provides pasture-raised products in the United States. It offers shell eggs, butter, hard-boiled eggs, ghee, liquid whole eggs, and egg bite products. Vital Farms, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headqua...
How the Company Makes Money
Vital Farms makes money primarily by selling branded food products—most notably pasture-raised shell eggs—into the retail supply chain. Its core revenue stream is wholesale product sales to grocery retailers and other large food distributors; thos...
Vital Farms Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong, record‑setting 2025 results—notably double‑digit revenue growth (+25.3%) and record Adjusted EBITDA (+31.6% to $114M)—alongside major operational milestones (third ECS line, ERP implementation without unplanned interruptions, inventory rebuild) and expansion of farm and brand reach. Management acknowledged near‑term headwinds: margin pressure from planned promotional reinvestment, shipment disruption residuals from ERP cutover, volatile retailer ordering due to weather and an industry supply rebound, and a stepped‑up CapEx profile in 2026. Guidance for 2026 is growth‑oriented ($900M–$920M) but more measured, implying a temporary margin contraction to ~12% as the company prioritizes high‑quality placements and household penetration. Overall, achievements and structural progress on capacity, brand, controls, and long‑term targets outweigh the near‑term operational and margin pressures, but management is being cautious about pacing in H1 2026.Positive Updates
Record 2025 Revenue and Profitability
Net revenue grew to $759.4M in fiscal 2025, up 25.3% year‑over‑year. Adjusted EBITDA surpassed $100M for the first time, reaching $114.0M, up 31.6% year‑over‑year. Q4 revenue was $213.6M and Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was $29.2M. Net income for the year was $66.3M, or $1.44 per diluted share.
Negative Updates
Margin Compression Due to Promotions and Cost Pressures
Gross margin modestly contracted to 37.6% from 37.9% in the prior year. 2026 guidance implies Adjusted EBITDA margin of ~12.0% at the midpoint versus ~15.0% in 2025 (roughly 300–400 basis points of contraction) driven by reinvestment of the May 2025 price increase into promotions and higher labor/overhead as operations scaled.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record 2025 Revenue and Profitability
Net revenue grew to $759.4M in fiscal 2025, up 25.3% year‑over‑year. Adjusted EBITDA surpassed $100M for the first time, reaching $114.0M, up 31.6% year‑over‑year. Q4 revenue was $213.6M and Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was $29.2M. Net income for the year was $66.3M, or $1.44 per diluted share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vital Farms guided fiscal 2026 net revenue of $900–$920 million (more than 20% growth at the midpoint, largely volume‑driven), Adjusted EBITDA of $105–$115 million (12.0% margin at the midpoint), and CapEx of $140–$150 million; management said it will fund projects primarily with existing cash ($113.4 million in cash and marketable securities at year‑end), operating cash flow, has no debt, and the board authorized a $100 million two‑year share repurchase program. The company reiterated its 2030 targets of $2.0 billion in net revenue with a 15%–17% EBITDA margin and a gross margin of 35% or better, noted that each CapEx dollar dedicated to neutrality generates >$5 of annual revenue capacity, and signaled a measured Q1 with expected order‑pattern noise followed by stronger back‑half growth and a pivot to meaningful free cash flow in 2027 and beyond.Vital Farms Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 784.41M | 759.44M | 606.31M | 471.86M | 362.05M | 260.90M |
| Gross Profit | 276.18M | 285.68M | 229.93M | 162.33M | 109.44M | 82.90M |
| EBITDA | 91.16M | 106.65M | 81.64M | 40.91M | 8.39M | 3.95M |
| Net Income | 47.86M | 66.28M | 53.39M | 25.57M | 1.25M | 2.43M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 492.64M | 518.74M | 359.33M | 275.18M | 214.67M | 189.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 51.43M | 113.35M | 160.29M | 116.82M | 78.73M | 99.59M |
| Total Debt | 54.24M | 53.49M | 18.71M | 22.56M | 10.69M | 327.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 161.74M | 167.48M | 90.03M | 82.50M | 56.33M | 38.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 330.91M | 351.26M | 269.30M | 192.68M | 158.33M | 151.47M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -89.69M | -48.23M | 35.76M | 39.37M | -18.66M | 971.00K |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.89M | 33.72M | 64.41M | 50.91M | -8.10M | 17.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -106.58M | -134.25M | -7.03M | 22.38M | -10.04M | -18.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -22.99M | -1.23M | 9.07M | -2.05M | 83.00K | 2.18M |
Vital Farms Technical Analysis
Neutral
12.29
Price Trends
11.98
Negative
18.71
Negative
29.09
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.82
Negative
47.48
Neutral
87.96
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VITL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 12.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.18, above the 50-day MA of 11.98, and below the 200-day MA of 29.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.96 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VITL.
Vital Farms Risk Analysis
Vital Farms disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vital Farms reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vital Farms Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.60B | 5.21 | 26.11% | 10.53% | -8.85% | -29.16% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | $436.63M | 9.74 | 14.47% | ― | 26.40% | -9.26% | |
58 Neutral | $1.82B | 470.16 | 0.89% | 4.40% | -5.30% | -109.16% | |
57 Neutral | $1.56B | 22.90 | 3.43% | 3.34% | 0.22% | -52.50% | |
57 Neutral | $1.38B | 31.41 | 3.18% | 2.23% | 11.38% | -38.18% | |
49 Neutral | $369.71M | -126.67 | -0.70% | 3.39% | 0.76% | -105.51% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
VITL
Vital Farms
10.45
-21.50
-67.29%
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
12.63
3.59
39.74%
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods
76.49
-12.89
-14.42%
FDP
Fresh Del Monte Produce
33.59
-0.39
-1.15%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
3.81
0.09
2.42%
DOLE
Dole
14.42
0.65
4.76%
Vital Farms Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresProduct-Related Announcements
Vital Farms Exits Butter Line to Refocus on Eggs
Negative
May 7, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Vital Farms’ management decided to wind down and discontinue its butter product offerings by the end of fiscal 2026, citing increased international supply chain complexity and more volatile economics, and expects inventory-re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.