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Vital Farms
(NASDAQ:VITL)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(9.85% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/17/26
Overall score reflects solid operating growth and balance-sheet conservatism, but it is held back most by the recent deterioration in cash flow and the earnings-call-flagged near-term margin/EBITDA pressures. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E, while technicals remain weak-to-neutral.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth & Distribution
Multi-year top-line momentum is supported by sustained distribution wins and household penetration. Q1 revenue rose 15.4% y/y and management targets adding 20–30 TDPs; secular category share gains for outdoor-access eggs underpin durable volume growth and revenue resilience over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
Cash conversion has deteriorated materially: operating cash flow covers only a small portion of net income and FCF swung deeply negative. Persistent weak cash generation constrains reinvestment, increases dependence on credit lines, and limits capacity for shareholder returns or opportunistic M&A.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth & Distribution
Multi-year top-line momentum is supported by sustained distribution wins and household penetration. Q1 revenue rose 15.4% y/y and management targets adding 20–30 TDPs; secular category share gains for outdoor-access eggs underpin durable volume growth and revenue resilience over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Vital Farms Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenue by Product
Breaks down revenue by eggs, butter, and other product lines to show which items drive sales and profits. Heavy reliance on eggs points to concentration and exposure to commodity and supply risks, while growth in premium or non-egg lines suggests successful diversification and potential for higher margins. Shifts in product mix also reveal pricing power, promotional pressure, and where Vital Farms is gaining or losing traction with retailers and consumers.
Breaks down revenue by eggs, butter, and other product lines to show which items drive sales and profits. Heavy reliance on eggs points to concentration and exposure to commodity and supply risks, while growth in premium or non-egg lines suggests successful diversification and potential for higher margins. Shifts in product mix also reveal pricing power, promotional pressure, and where Vital Farms is gaining or losing traction with retailers and consumers.
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The Fly
The FlyVital Farms (VITL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$555.32M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.37M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.0
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth26.40%
EPS Growth-9.26%
CountryUS
Employees739
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.08
Shares Outstanding42,848,454
10 Day Avg. Volume1,979,530
30 Day Avg. Volume2,369,937
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.14
Price to Book (P/B)4.13
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio-30.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.90Price Target Upside-3.17% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$777.63M
Vital Farms Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vital Farms, Inc. is a values-driven food enterprise dedicated to providing ethically sourced, pasture-raised products across the United States. Its diverse product portfolio primarily features a variety of egg-based items, such as fresh shell egg...
How the Company Makes Money
Vital Farms makes money primarily by producing, marketing, and selling branded pasture-raised food products—most notably shell eggs—into U.S. retail and foodservice channels. Revenue is generated when retailers, distributors, and foodservice custo...
Vital Farms Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed but cautious outlook: solid top-line volume-driven growth and meaningful retail distribution wins are positives, supported by no debt and active cost and capital management. However, near-term profitability is under material pressure — Q1 showed a large gross margin and adjusted EBITDA decline, the company is incurring an estimated $32M of supply-management costs (concentrated in Q2), lowering full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance, pausing growth capital projects and implementing headcount reductions. Management spells out a clear remediation plan and a path to margin recovery in 2027, but the short-term operational and margin setbacks are significant.Positive Updates
Top-line Growth
Net revenue of $187.2M in Q1 2026, a 15.4% increase year-over-year driven by volume-related increases of $34.7M (partially offset by a $9.7M price/mix decline).
Negative Updates
Margin Compression and Gross Margin Decline
Gross profit of $53.0M, representing 28.3% of net revenue in Q1 2026 compared with $62.5M or 38.5% a year earlier — a decline of 10.2 percentage points (≈1,020 basis points), driven by unfavorable mix into low-revenue breaker sales, elevated supply-management costs and increased promotions.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line Growth
Net revenue of $187.2M in Q1 2026, a 15.4% increase year-over-year driven by volume-related increases of $34.7M (partially offset by a $9.7M price/mix decline).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vital Farms updated 2026 guidance to net sales of $775–$800M and adjusted EBITDA of $0–$10M (incorporating an estimated ~$32M of supply‑management costs), with CapEx cut to $70–$75M; management expects underlying gross margin to return to ~30% by late Q4 and adjusted EBITDA margin to reach double digits in 2027. In Q1: net revenue was $187.2M (+15.4% y/y), gross profit $53.0M (28.3%), adjusted EBITDA $5.0M (2.7%), net loss $1.5M (‑$0.03/sh), and cash & investments were $51.4M with no debt. Key actions/assumptions include adding 20–30 TDPs (15–25%); Q1 PDPs 149.8 (Q4‑2025 avg 144.8, Q1‑2025 115.8) with a target Q4‑2026 PDP avg of 170–175; excess breaker prices as low as $0.10/doz (Q1 breaker mix reduced gross profit by ~$4.9M); expected ~ $4M annual ECS labor savings; pausing VXR/accelerator builds to reduce projected 2026 CapEx by ~ $75M; exiting butter to free ~$25M cash while reducing 2026 sales by ~$14M and improving gross margin 150–200 bps in 2027; Q2 is expected to be the trough, negative free cash flow will be funded with cash and the revolver (covenants: 3.5x net leverage, 1.35x fixed charge coverage).Vital Farms Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 784.41M | 759.44M | 606.31M | 471.86M | 362.05M | 260.90M |
| Gross Profit | 276.18M | 285.68M | 229.93M | 162.33M | 109.44M | 82.90M |
| EBITDA | 91.16M | 106.65M | 81.64M | 40.91M | 8.39M | 3.95M |
| Net Income | 47.86M | 66.28M | 53.39M | 25.57M | 1.25M | 2.43M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 492.64M | 518.74M | 359.33M | 275.18M | 214.67M | 189.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 51.43M | 113.35M | 160.29M | 116.82M | 78.73M | 99.59M |
| Total Debt | 54.24M | 53.49M | 18.71M | 22.56M | 10.69M | 327.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 161.74M | 167.48M | 90.03M | 82.50M | 56.33M | 38.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 330.91M | 351.26M | 269.30M | 192.68M | 158.33M | 151.47M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -89.69M | -48.23M | 35.76M | 39.37M | -18.66M | 971.00K |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.89M | 33.72M | 64.41M | 50.91M | -8.10M | 17.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -106.58M | -134.25M | -7.03M | 22.38M | -10.04M | -18.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -22.99M | -1.23M | 9.07M | -2.05M | 83.00K | 2.18M |
Vital Farms Technical Analysis
Neutral
12.29
Price Trends
10.73
Positive
13.71
Negative
23.63
Negative
Market Momentum
0.63
Negative
64.62
Neutral
77.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VITL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 12.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.51, above the 50-day MA of 10.73, and below the 200-day MA of 23.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VITL.
Vital Farms Risk Analysis
Vital Farms disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vital Farms reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vital Farms Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $4.04B | 6.11 | 26.11% | 10.53% | -8.85% | -29.16% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $555.32M | 11.98 | 14.47% | ― | 26.40% | -9.26% | |
54 Neutral | $1.33B | 23.33 | 3.18% | 2.23% | 11.38% | -38.18% | |
52 Neutral | $1.44B | 3,372.52 | 0.89% | 4.40% | -5.29% | -97.13% | |
49 Neutral | $363.38M | -131.42 | -0.70% | 3.39% | 0.76% | -105.51% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
VITL
Vital Farms
12.95
-25.22
-66.07%
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
10.31
1.15
12.51%
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods
88.34
-7.17
-7.51%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
3.67
0.04
1.10%
DOLE
Dole
14.29
0.53
3.86%
Vital Farms Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Vital Farms Shareholders Back Board, Auditors and Pay Policies
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 10, 2026, Vital Farms, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders at which shareholders elected two directors, Russell Diez-Canseco and Kelly Kennedy, to serve terms running until the 2029 annual meeting. The election results, which show...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresProduct-Related Announcements
Vital Farms Exits Butter Line to Refocus on Eggs
Negative
May 7, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Vital Farms’ management decided to wind down and discontinue its butter product offerings by the end of fiscal 2026, citing increased international supply chain complexity and more volatile economics, and expects inventory-re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.