Vital Farms (VITL)
NASDAQ:VITL
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Vital Farms
(NASDAQ:VITL)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(14.48% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
Score is supported by strong multi-year operating performance and conservative balance-sheet positioning, plus constructive 2026 growth guidance and buyback authorization. It is held back primarily by weak 2025 cash-flow conversion/negative free cash flow and very bearish technicals with the stock trading far below major moving averages.
Positive Factors
Scaled Revenue & Record EBITDA
Vital Farms has materially scaled revenue and generated record adjusted EBITDA, showing durable demand for its premium products and operating leverage. Sustained top-line expansion with improving profitability supports continued capacity investments and long-term margin recovery targets.
Negative Factors
2025 Cash-Flow Weakness
A sharp decline in operating cash flow and negative free cash flow signal a disconnect between reported earnings and cash generation, likely from working-capital drag or inventory rebuild. If persistent, this undermines self-funding for growth and buybacks and raises financing risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scaled Revenue & Record EBITDA
Vital Farms has materially scaled revenue and generated record adjusted EBITDA, showing durable demand for its premium products and operating leverage. Sustained top-line expansion with improving profitability supports continued capacity investments and long-term margin recovery targets.
Read all positive factors
Vital Farms (VITL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$606.55M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.9
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth23.56%
EPS Growth15.06%
CountryUS
Employees598
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.35
Shares Outstanding44,797,127
10 Day Avg. Volume3,043,835
30 Day Avg. Volume2,651,373
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.14
Price to Book (P/B)4.13
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio-30.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$32.89Price Target Upside142.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$908.52M
Vital Farms Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vital Farms, Inc., an ethical food company, provides pasture-raised products in the United States. It offers shell eggs, butter, hard-boiled eggs, ghee, liquid whole eggs, and egg bite products. Vital Farms, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headqua...
How the Company Makes Money
Vital Farms generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pasture-raised eggs and butter products. The company operates a direct-to-retail model, supplying its products to major grocery chains and retailers across the United States. Key reve...
Vital Farms Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenue by Product
Breaks down revenue by eggs, butter, and other product lines to show which items drive sales and profits. Heavy reliance on eggs points to concentration and exposure to commodity and supply risks, while growth in premium or non-egg lines suggests successful diversification and potential for higher margins. Shifts in product mix also reveal pricing power, promotional pressure, and where Vital Farms is gaining or losing traction with retailers and consumers.
Breaks down revenue by eggs, butter, and other product lines to show which items drive sales and profits. Heavy reliance on eggs points to concentration and exposure to commodity and supply risks, while growth in premium or non-egg lines suggests successful diversification and potential for higher margins. Shifts in product mix also reveal pricing power, promotional pressure, and where Vital Farms is gaining or losing traction with retailers and consumers.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVital Farms Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong, record‑setting 2025 results—notably double‑digit revenue growth (+25.3%) and record Adjusted EBITDA (+31.6% to $114M)—alongside major operational milestones (third ECS line, ERP implementation without unplanned interruptions, inventory rebuild) and expansion of farm and brand reach. Management acknowledged near‑term headwinds: margin pressure from planned promotional reinvestment, shipment disruption residuals from ERP cutover, volatile retailer ordering due to weather and an industry supply rebound, and a stepped‑up CapEx profile in 2026. Guidance for 2026 is growth‑oriented ($900M–$920M) but more measured, implying a temporary margin contraction to ~12% as the company prioritizes high‑quality placements and household penetration. Overall, achievements and structural progress on capacity, brand, controls, and long‑term targets outweigh the near‑term operational and margin pressures, but management is being cautious about pacing in H1 2026.Positive Updates
Record 2025 Revenue and Profitability
Net revenue grew to $759.4M in fiscal 2025, up 25.3% year‑over‑year. Adjusted EBITDA surpassed $100M for the first time, reaching $114.0M, up 31.6% year‑over‑year. Q4 revenue was $213.6M and Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was $29.2M. Net income for the year was $66.3M, or $1.44 per diluted share.
Negative Updates
Margin Compression Due to Promotions and Cost Pressures
Gross margin modestly contracted to 37.6% from 37.9% in the prior year. 2026 guidance implies Adjusted EBITDA margin of ~12.0% at the midpoint versus ~15.0% in 2025 (roughly 300–400 basis points of contraction) driven by reinvestment of the May 2025 price increase into promotions and higher labor/overhead as operations scaled.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record 2025 Revenue and Profitability
Net revenue grew to $759.4M in fiscal 2025, up 25.3% year‑over‑year. Adjusted EBITDA surpassed $100M for the first time, reaching $114.0M, up 31.6% year‑over‑year. Q4 revenue was $213.6M and Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was $29.2M. Net income for the year was $66.3M, or $1.44 per diluted share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vital Farms guided fiscal 2026 net revenue of $900–$920 million (more than 20% growth at the midpoint, largely volume‑driven), Adjusted EBITDA of $105–$115 million (12.0% margin at the midpoint), and CapEx of $140–$150 million; management said it will fund projects primarily with existing cash ($113.4 million in cash and marketable securities at year‑end), operating cash flow, has no debt, and the board authorized a $100 million two‑year share repurchase program. The company reiterated its 2030 targets of $2.0 billion in net revenue with a 15%–17% EBITDA margin and a gross margin of 35% or better, noted that each CapEx dollar dedicated to neutrality generates >$5 of annual revenue capacity, and signaled a measured Q1 with expected order‑pattern noise followed by stronger back‑half growth and a pivot to meaningful free cash flow in 2027 and beyond.Vital Farms Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 759.44M | 606.31M | 471.86M | 362.05M | 260.90M |
| Gross Profit | 285.68M | 229.93M | 162.33M | 109.44M | 82.90M |
| EBITDA | 105.98M | 81.64M | 40.91M | 8.39M | 3.95M |
| Net Income | 66.28M | 53.39M | 25.57M | 1.25M | 2.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 518.74M | 359.33M | 275.18M | 214.67M | 189.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 113.35M | 160.29M | 116.82M | 78.73M | 99.59M |
| Total Debt | 53.49M | 18.71M | 22.56M | 10.69M | 327.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 167.48M | 90.03M | 82.50M | 56.33M | 38.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 351.26M | 269.30M | 192.68M | 158.33M | 151.47M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -48.23M | 35.76M | 39.37M | -18.66M | 971.00K |
| Operating Cash Flow | 33.72M | 64.41M | 50.91M | -8.10M | 17.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -134.25M | -7.03M | 22.38M | -10.04M | -18.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.23M | 9.07M | -2.05M | 83.00K | 2.18M |
Vital Farms Technical Analysis
Negative
13.54
Price Trends
23.54
Negative
27.96
Negative
34.72
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.00
Positive
13.15
Positive
6.01
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VITL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.54, below the 50-day MA of 23.54, and below the 200-day MA of 34.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 13.15 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VITL.
Vital Farms Risk Analysis
Vital Farms disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vital Farms reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vital Farms Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | $3.72B | 9.73 | 44.65% | 10.53% | 65.80% | 197.95% | |
72 Outperform | $2.01B | 18.92 | 4.53% | 3.34% | 1.11% | 414.23% | |
64 Neutral | $606.55M | 21.87 | 20.69% | ― | 23.56% | 15.06% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
59 Neutral | $1.38B | 27.79 | 3.76% | 2.23% | 7.09% | -83.75% | |
53 Neutral | $2.08B | -484.91 | -0.54% | 4.40% | -7.37% | -84.53% | |
49 Neutral | $386.55M | 191.55 | -0.07% | 3.39% | -3.22% | -108.24% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
VITL
Vital Farms
13.54
-17.46
-56.32%
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
14.70
4.00
37.38%
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods
78.11
-7.28
-8.53%
FDP
Fresh Del Monte Produce
42.48
13.84
48.34%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
3.99
0.25
6.68%
DOLE
Dole
14.49
0.75
5.49%
Vital Farms Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Vital Farms Posts Strong 2025 Results, Launches Buyback Plan
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Vital Farms reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 26, 2026, with fiscal 2025 net revenue rising 25.3% to $759.4 million and adjusted EBITDA increasing to $114 million, as it scaled its supply chain and expanded its ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.