Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) AI Stock Analysis

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Cal-Maine Foods

(NASDAQ:CALM)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:73Outperform

Price Target:

$94.00

▲(18.88% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:01/09/26

Strong financial quality (debt-free balance sheet and robust cash generation) and a very attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield) support the score. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum and an earnings-call outlook that acknowledges near-term margin pressure and commodity/avian-flu risks despite solid long-term strategic progress.

Positive Factors

Debt-free, cash-rich balance sheet

A very strong liquidity position and virtually no debt provide durable financial flexibility: supports ongoing capex, M&A, buybacks and a variable dividend without needing external financing, and cushions the company through agricultural price cycles and episodic shocks.

High cash generation and FCF conversion

Consistently strong operating cash flow and high FCF conversion signal durable earnings quality and internal funding capacity for growth initiatives, returning capital, and absorbing cyclical downturns without weakening the capital structure.

Strategic shift to specialty & prepared foods

A deliberate mix shift toward higher-margin, less price-sensitive specialty and prepared foods diversifies revenue away from commodity shell eggs. Combined with planned capacity additions, this enhances margin durability and reduces exposure to volatile spot egg prices over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Revenue and profit cyclicality

Cal‑Maine's top-line and earnings remain exposed to volatile commodity egg prices and volume swings. Revenue and margins can compress sharply in lower-price cycles, making forward cash flow and profit visibility inherently cyclical despite structural improvements.

Ongoing avian influenza operational risk

HPAI introduces persistent, non-financial operational risk: sudden flock losses, supply disruptions and biosecurity costs can materially reduce production and increase unit costs. This unpredictability can offset benefits of capacity expansion and impair long-term throughput.

Prepared foods ramping costs and margin pressure

Scaling prepared foods requires near-term capex, optimization work and elevated SG&A; transitional inefficiencies and margin slippage can persist during ramp, potentially delaying positive margin contribution and pressuring consolidated profitability over the next 6–24 months.

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$4.04B

Dividend Yield10.53%

Average Volume (3M)1.21M

Price to Earnings (P/E)3.6

Beta (1Y)0.33

Revenue Growth65.80%

EPS Growth197.95%

CountryUS

Employees2,929

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength42

IndustryAgricultural Farm Products

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.13

Shares Outstanding47,654,045

10 Day Avg. Volume864,121

30 Day Avg. Volume1,211,979

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.01

Price to Book (P/B)1.83

Price to Sales (P/S)1.10

P/FCF Ratio4.38

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.87

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.07

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.23

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$90.00

Price Target Upside13.82% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

EPS Forecast (FY)8.2

Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.02B

Cal-Maine Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCal-Maine Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, grades, packages, markets, and distributes shell eggs. The company offers specialty shell eggs, such as nutritionally enhanced, cage free, organic, and brown eggs under the Egg-Land's Best, Land O' Lakes, Farmhouse Eggs, and 4-Grain brand names, as well as under private labels. It sells its products to various customers, including national and regional grocery store chains, club stores, independent supermarkets, foodservice distributors, and egg product consumers primarily in the southwestern, southeastern, mid-western, and mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Ridgeland, Mississippi.

How the Company Makes MoneyCal-Maine Foods makes money primarily through the sale of shell eggs. The company's revenue model revolves around producing and distributing different types of eggs, such as conventional, cage-free, organic, and specialty eggs. Key revenue streams include sales to retail customers, such as grocery stores and supermarkets, and foodservice customers, including restaurants and institutional food providers. Cal-Maine Foods also benefits from strategic partnerships with major retail chains and distributors, which help in expanding its market reach. Additionally, factors such as egg prices, feed costs, and consumer demand significantly influence the company's earnings.

Cal-Maine Foods Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue By Product Category

Revenue By Product Category
Shows how much revenue each product category generates, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability. This can indicate consumer preferences and the company's strategic focus areas.

Chart InsightsCal-Maine Foods is experiencing robust growth in its specialty and prepared foods segments, driven by strategic acquisitions like Echo Lake Foods. This expansion is crucial as it diversifies revenue streams beyond conventional shell eggs, which have seen fluctuating sales. The prepared foods segment, in particular, has shown remarkable growth, contributing significantly to the company's revenue. However, rising costs and avian influenza pose ongoing risks. Management's focus on vertical integration and operational excellence aims to mitigate these challenges and enhance shareholder value.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Cal-Maine Foods Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 07, 2026

(Q2-2026)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Mar 31, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Balanced outcome: the company demonstrated meaningful strategic progress — rapid growth in prepared foods (YoY), a clear mix shift toward specialty and value-added products, sizable capacity expansion plans, and a strong cash-rich, virtually debt-free balance sheet. However, near-term financial results show considerable revenue and profit compression driven by much lower commodity egg prices, margin pressure from prepared foods expansion work, higher SG&A, and persistent avian flu risk. Management presented a confident long-term thesis while acknowledging short-term headwinds and transitional costs.

Q2-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Diversification and Mix Shift Toward Specialty and Prepared Foods

Specialty eggs and prepared foods combined increased materially as a portion of net sales, representing approximately 42.8%–46.4% of net sales (company cited ranges across periods), up from ~31%–32% a year earlier — a clear mix shift away from pure commodity shell eggs toward higher-margin and more stable categories.

Prepared Foods Rapid Revenue Growth (Year-over-Year)

Prepared foods sales grew substantially year-over-year: Q2 FY2026 prepared foods sales were $71.7M vs $10.4M in Q2 FY2025 (+586.4%). YTD FY2026 prepared foods sales were $155.6M vs $19.4M in prior year (+702.9%). Echo Lake Foods contributed $56.6M in Q2 and $127.1M YTD.

Investments to Expand Prepared Foods Capacity

Announced ~$36M of CapEx for Echo Lake (including a $15M network optimization adding ~17M lbs scrambled egg production and a previously announced $14.8M high-speed pancake line adding ~12M lbs). Joint venture Trapini Foods to invest $7M through FY2028 adding ~18M lbs. Combined prepared foods capacity expected to increase >30% over the next 18–24 months.

Specialty Egg Capacity and M&A

Acquisition of Clean Egg LLC production assets in Texas expanded specialty cage-free and free-range capacity (described as ~677,000 brown cage-free/free-range layers and pullets) supporting local sourcing and specialty growth; specialty egg sales were essentially stable Q2 (down 0.4%) and up 4.7% YTD, showing resilience.

Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Position

Ended the quarter with $1.1B in cash and temporary cash investments (despite an 18.2% decline vs prior period), a virtually debt-free balance sheet, and $94.8M of operating cash flow in Q2 and $373.4M YTD (up 55.5% YTD), providing flexibility for capex, M&A and buybacks.

Share Repurchases and Dividend Return of Capital

Purchased 846,037 shares for $74.8M in the quarter under an existing repurchase program (up to $500M authorized; $375.2M remaining). Company announced an approximate cash dividend of $0.72 per share under its variable dividend policy.

Operational Growth Metrics (Flock & Hatchery)

Production capacity and future supply showed expansion: breeder flocks grew (Q2 +12.7%; YTD +21.6%), total chicks hatched rose (Q2 +65.1%; YTD +71%), and average layer hens expanded (Q2 +2.6%; YTD +6%), supporting future sales and percent produced of sales moving toward company target levels.

Management Confidence and Long-Term Strategy

Management emphasized structural changes (hybrid pricing, vertical integration, specialty and prepared foods growth) that they say make the company more durable vs prior cycles and better positioned to manage lower ag prices without forcing losses.

Negative Updates

Significant Revenue Decline (Quarter)

Q2 FY2026 net sales were $769.5M vs $954.7M a year earlier, a decline of 19.4%. Total shell egg sales in Q2 were $649.6M, down 28.1% (driven by 26.5% lower selling prices and 2.2% lower volumes). Conventional egg sales in Q2 declined 41.0% (38.8% lower selling prices and 3.6% lower volumes).

Material Profit Compression

Q2 gross profit fell to $207.4M (down 41.8% year-over-year). Operating income in Q2 was $123.9M, down 55.5% with an operating margin of 16.1%. Net income attributable to Cal-Maine in Q2 fell to $102.8M (down 53.1%) and diluted EPS was $2.13 (down 52.3%). YTD declines were also notable: gross profit down 14.0% YTD and net income down 18.1% YTD.

Prepared Foods Short-Term Volume and Margin Pressure

Management flagged temporary lower volume and higher costs at Echo Lake due to capacity optimization and automation work. Prepared foods experienced margin slippage (gross margin pull-down; management targets ~19% EBITDA but expects near-term transient slippage and Q3 additional pressure). Echo Lake saw sequential softness (Q2 prepared foods down ~14.5% vs the comparable internal period cited).

SG&A and Cost Increases

SG&A increased (Q2 +6.8%; YTD +9.2%) driven by the Echo Lake acquisition and higher professional/legal fees. Farm production, processing, packaging and warehousing costs rose, contributing to cost pressures even as some outside purchase costs declined.

Cash Balance Decline

Although cash remained strong, cash and temporary investments declined 18.2% to $1.1B versus the prior-year period, reflecting uses of cash (capex, acquisitions, buybacks, dividends).

Ongoing Avian Influenza Risk

Management stressed that high-path avian influenza (HPAI) remains an ongoing, global threat with continued outbreaks (company cited global outbreaks and sizable historical layer losses). The virus presence and unpredictability keep downside operational risk elevated.

Company Guidance

The company guided that its strategy centers on expanding specialty eggs and scaling prepared foods—targeting ~30% prepared foods volume growth over the next 18–24 months and a ~19% EBITDA margin for Echo Lake—funded by targeted CapEx and M&A: a $15.0M Echo Lake network optimization adding ~17M pounds of scrambled egg capacity by mid‑FY2027, a $14.8M high‑speed pancake line adding ~12M pounds by early FY2027, and a Trapini JV investing $7.0M through FY2028 to add ~18M pounds (combined prepared foods capacity +30%+ over 18–24 months); specialty capacity was increased via the Clean Egg asset purchase (≈677,000 specialty layers/pullets) with management saying specialty could comprise >50% of shell egg sales over time. Near‑term headwinds include temporary lower prepared‑foods volume and higher costs through the remainder of the fiscal year as projects ramp, but management emphasized a strong balance sheet (≈$1.1B cash/temporary investments, virtually debt‑free), continued buybacks (846,037 shares for $74.8M this quarter; $375.2M repurchase authorization remaining), and a variable cash dividend of about $0.72 per share payable Feb 12, 2026.

Cal-Maine Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Exceptional balance sheet strength (virtually no debt) and strong profitability/cash generation support a high score. Offsets include slightly negative TTM revenue growth and clear cyclicality/normalization risk as egg pricing swings.

Income Statement

Very Positive

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show very strong profitability with high gross and net margins (about 44% and 29%, respectively) and robust operating profitability. Performance improved materially versus 2024, highlighting strong pricing/power and cycle tailwinds. The key offset is growth: revenue is slightly down in TTM (about -4%), and the multi-year revenue path has been volatile, consistent with a cyclical ag market.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

Balance sheet strength is a standout: the company reports essentially no debt in the most recent periods, with a large equity base relative to assets. Returns on equity are very high in TTM (over 50%), reflecting strong earnings generation on the capital base. The main watch-out is that returns appear cycle-driven (much lower in weaker years), so profitability and equity growth could normalize if industry conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Cash generation is strong: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are large and free cash flow remains high relative to net income (roughly 88%), indicating good earnings quality. Cash flow also improved dramatically versus earlier years, though the most recent growth rates show modest declines (slightly negative TTM free cash flow growth), reinforcing that results can fluctuate with the operating cycle.

Breakdown	TTM	May 2025	May 2024	May 2023	May 2022	May 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.21B	4.26B	2.33B	3.15B	1.78B	1.35B
Gross Profit	1.77B	1.85B	541.57M	1.20B	337.06M	160.66M
EBITDA	1.64B	1.70B	440.76M	1.07B	234.81M	49.74M
Net Income	1.15B	1.22B	277.89M	758.02M	132.65M	2.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.14B	3.10B	2.20B	1.96B	1.44B	1.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.14B	1.39B	812.38M	647.91M	174.51M	169.51M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.44M	2.38M
Total Liabilities	446.30M	536.47M	401.89M	354.14M	332.96M	229.31M
Stockholders Equity	2.69B	2.56B	1.80B	1.61B	1.10B	1.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.17B	1.07B	304.28M	726.44M	53.81M	-68.93M
Operating Cash Flow	1.36B	1.23B	451.40M	863.01M	126.21M	26.14M
Investing Cash Flow	-576.53M	-579.52M	-412.59M	-375.11M	-117.02M	-44.19M
Financing Cash Flow	-551.81M	-386.72M	-93.76M	-254.16M	-7.46M	-2.72M

Cal-Maine Foods Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price79.07

Price Trends

50DMA

81.33

Positive

100DMA

84.39

Positive

200DMA

91.93

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.83

Negative

RSI

59.03

Neutral

STOCH

77.46

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CALM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 79.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.33, below the 50-day MA of 81.33, and below the 200-day MA of 91.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CALM.

Cal-Maine Foods Risk Analysis

Cal-Maine Foods disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cal-Maine Foods reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cal-Maine Foods Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SFD	77 Outperform	$9.98B	11.43	14.44%	4.44%	―	―
CALM	73 Outperform	$4.04B	3.55	48.69%	10.53%	65.80%	197.95%
VITL	73 Outperform	$1.15B	19.53	20.71%	―	23.56%	15.06%
FDP	70 Outperform	$2.01B	22.14	4.53%	3.34%	1.11%	414.23%
BG	64 Neutral	$23.71B	24.66	6.34%	3.14%	10.29%	17.32%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DOLE	59 Neutral	$1.52B	51.79	8.75%	2.23%	7.09%	-83.75%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CALM

Cal-Maine Foods

84.43

2.74

3.35%

Bunge Global

121.38

50.32

70.82%

FDP

Fresh Del Monte Produce

42.23

13.13

45.11%

VITL

Vital Farms

24.79

-6.00

-19.49%

DOLE

Dole

15.65

1.41

9.91%

SFD

Smithfield Foods

24.53

4.45

22.16%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 09, 2026