Dole (DOLE) AI Stock Analysis

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Dole

(NYSE:DOLE)

Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:

$15.50

▲(10.71%Upside)

Dole's overall stock score is bolstered by a stable financial performance and a reasonable valuation. The earnings call provided some optimism with revenue growth and strategic refinancing, but was tempered by operational challenges and a decline in adjusted EBITDA. Technical analysis suggests mixed signals, with the stock facing resistance.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

DOLE reported 1Q25 adj. EBITDA of $104.8mm, which was ahead of Visible Alpha Consensus of $97.9mm.

Outlook

DOLE raised its FY25 adj. EBITDA outlook to at least $380mm, indicating confidence in future performance.

Negative Factors

External Challenges

The impact of Tropical Storm Sara and a breakdown of a company vessel are expected to pressure gross margins.

Margin Pressure

Better than expected sales were offset by lower gross margins.

Value Proposition

DOLE is perceived to offer a less attractive value proposition than other food-related companies due to low margins and return on capital.

Dole (DOLE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.33B

Dividend Yield2.43%

Average Volume (3M)715.10K

Price to Earnings (P/E)14.2

Beta (1Y)0.32

Revenue Growth0.91%

EPS Growth-49.71%

CountryUS

Employees35,371

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength66

IndustryAgricultural Farm Products

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.35

Shares Outstanding95,138,030

10 Day Avg. Volume634,980

30 Day Avg. Volume715,095

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.02

Price to Book (P/B)0.79

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio6.50

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.74

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.07

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.24

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.37

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$14.00

Price Target Upside0.00%

Rating ConsensusModerate Sell

Number of Analyst Covering1

Dole Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDole plc engages in sourcing, processing, marketing, and distribution of fresh fruit and vegetables worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Fresh Fruit; Diversified Fresh Produce - EMEA; Diversified Fresh Produce - Americas and ROW; and Fresh Vegetables. It offers bananas, pineapples grapes, berries, avocados, deciduous fruit, and organic produce; value added salads, which includes packaged salad and meal kits; and fresh packed vegetables, such as iceberg, romaine, leaf lettuces, and celery, as well as health foods and consumer goods. The company serves retailers, wholesalers, and foodservice customers. Dole plc is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

How the Company Makes MoneyDole makes money primarily through the sale of fresh fruits and vegetables. The company's revenue model is based on producing, sourcing, and distributing its products to retail, wholesale, and foodservice customers globally. Dole operates extensive farming and distribution networks, allowing it to maintain control over the supply chain and ensure product quality. Key revenue streams include the sale of bananas, pineapples, and berries, which are some of the company's most significant product lines. Dole also generates income through packaged salads and other value-added fresh produce items. Significant partnerships with retail chains and distributors, along with a strong brand presence, contribute to Dole's earnings. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainability and innovation in agricultural practices supports its long-term profitability.

Dole Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -4.57%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflected a balanced outlook with several positive metrics such as revenue growth, dividend increase, and successful refinancing. However, these were countered by declines in adjusted EBITDA, net income, and challenges from Tropical Storm Sarah and the ongoing strategic review of the fresh vegetables segment.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth and Strong Performance

Group revenue increased by 4.2% to $2.1 billion on a like-for-like basis. Diversified fresh produce segments performed well, offsetting challenges in fresh fruit.

Dividend Increase

The company increased its dividend by 6.25% to $0.085 per share, marking the first increase since 2021, reflecting confidence in long-term growth.

Successful Refinancing

Completed a $1.2 billion refinancing of a credit facility at favorable rates, providing enhanced financial flexibility.

Positive Performance in Diversified EMEA

Adjusted EBITDA in this segment increased by 9.4% on a like-for-like basis, despite FX headwinds, driven by strong performance in the UK, Spain, and the Netherlands.

Strong Start for Diversified Americas

Double-digit growth in EBITDA on a like-for-like basis, driven by strong performance in the North American market, particularly in kiwis, citrus, and avocados.

Negative Updates

Decrease in Adjusted EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 2% to $104.8 million, partly due to higher sourcing and shipping costs following Tropical Storm Sarah.

Impact of Tropical Storm Sarah

Fresh fruit segment faced headwinds due to the storm, with higher sourcing costs and operational challenges.

Net Income Decline

Net income was $44.2 million, a decrease of $21.3 million year-on-year, impacted by the prior year's exceptional gain from the progressive produce disposal.

Challenges in Fresh Vegetables Segment

Weaker performance against a strong comparative period, with ongoing strategic review not yet concluded.

Company Guidance

In the recent earnings call, Dole plc provided updated guidance for the fiscal year 2025, projecting a full-year adjusted EBITDA of at least $380 million, reflecting increased confidence based on a strong first quarter performance. The company reported a 4.2% like-for-like revenue increase to $2.1 billion, with adjusted EBITDA slightly declining by 2% to $104.8 million due to challenges from Tropical Storm Sarah. Adjusted net income was $33.1 million, translating to an adjusted EPS of $0.35, down from $0.43 in the previous year. Dole also announced a 6.25% increase in its dividend to $0.085 per share, supported by a $1.2 billion refinancing of its credit facility to enhance financial flexibility. The fresh fruit segment recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $63.3 million, with notable volume growth in bananas and pineapples, while the diversified EMEA segment showed strong like-for-like growth in adjusted EBITDA by 9.4%. The company remains optimistic about robust demand and potential tailwinds from the strengthening Euro, despite anticipating ongoing production challenges in Honduras due to the storm.

Dole Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dole exhibits stable financial performance with strong operational margins and reasonable returns on equity. However, declining revenue and increasing liabilities pose potential risks. The cash flow remains robust, supporting the company's operational needs, albeit with some growth volatility.

Income Statement

Positive

Dole's income statement shows a mixed performance with a modest increase in net income over the years and a strong TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin of 8.87%. However, the revenue has shown a declining trend from 2022 to 2023 and into the TTM, indicating potential challenges in maintaining top-line growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins in TTM are relatively healthy at 3.90% and 4.43% respectively, showing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

Dole's balance sheet reflects moderate financial stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.01 in TTM, indicating a balanced leverage. The equity ratio stands at 29.08%, suggesting a significant reliance on debt. Return on equity is reasonable at 12.73%, showcasing profitability for shareholders. However, the company's increasing total liabilities point towards rising financial obligations.

Cash Flow

Positive

Dole's cash flow statement highlights stable operating cash flow, with a TTM figure of $275 million and a free cash flow of $193 million. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.17, reflecting strong cash generation capability relative to profits. However, the free cash flow growth rate has shown some fluctuations, indicating potential challenges in sustaining cash flow growth.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
8.48B	8.25B	8.02B	6.45B	4.35B
	Gross Profit
717.72M	694.17M	599.88M	349.13M	333.59M
	EBIT
280.56M	272.16M	175.26M	-8.69M	67.14M
	EBITDA
410.72M	391.21M	307.84M	69.01M	105.89M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
125.51M	124.06M	86.50M	-7.22M	52.49M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
336.04M	281.48M	234.21M	256.68M	160.50M
	Total Assets
4.45B	4.85B	4.59B	4.67B	1.89B
	Total Debt
1.30B	1.43B	1.54B	1.74B	490.97M
	Net Debt
971.33M	1.16B	1.31B	1.49B	330.46M
	Total Liabilities
3.01B	3.43B	3.27B	3.42B	1.20B
	Stockholders Equity
1.29B	1.25B	1.16B	1.08B	535.01M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
180.29M	197.94M	140.89M	-49.06M	121.37M
	Operating Cash Flow
262.72M	275.98M	238.89M	16.38M	144.57M
	Investing Cash Flow
35.78M	-3.27M	-54.07M	82.82M	-25.60M
	Financing Cash Flow
-237.84M	-230.00M	-173.40M	-1.34M	-100.58M

Dole Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price14.00

Price Trends

50DMA

14.11

Negative

100DMA

14.01

Negative

200DMA

14.53

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.08

Negative

RSI

49.68

Neutral

STOCH

62.66

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DOLE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.95, below the 50-day MA of 14.11, and below the 200-day MA of 14.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DOLE.

Dole Risk Analysis

Dole disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dole reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Dole Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FDP	76 Outperform	$1.57B	10.72	7.51%	3.66%	-0.64%	―
ADM	71 Outperform	$23.86B	18.54	6.03%	3.92%	-8.59%	-50.72%
DOLE	68 Neutral	$1.33B	14.20	8.87%	2.43%	0.91%	-49.71%
TSN	67 Neutral	$19.44B	20.88	5.01%	3.65%	1.39%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$8.81B	14.92	4.67%	6.17%	3.60%	-2.89%
BG	64 Neutral	$10.94B	10.32	10.36%	3.44%	-10.90%	-36.54%
AGRO	64 Neutral	$928.94M	14.83	4.51%	3.77%	17.05%	-73.53%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DOLE

Dole

14.00

2.26

19.25%

AGRO

Adecoagro SA

9.29

0.30

3.34%

ADM

Archer Daniels Midland

52.00

-5.84

-10.10%

Bunge Global

81.41

-18.23

-18.30%

FDP

Fresh Del Monte Produce

32.82

11.81

56.21%

TSN

Tyson Foods

54.81

0.98

1.82%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.