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Adecoagro SA (AGRO)
NYSE:AGRO
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Adecoagro SA
(NYSE:AGRO)
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Select Model
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▲(11.80% Upside)
Adecoagro SA's overall stock score reflects a stable but challenged financial performance, with significant concerns about revenue growth and cash flow generation. Technical indicators suggest a lack of upward momentum, and the valuation appears high relative to peers. The earnings call highlighted both innovative initiatives and significant operational challenges, particularly in the Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy segment.
Positive Factors
Business Model Diversification
The company's diversified business model across multiple agricultural sectors provides resilience against sector-specific downturns, supporting long-term stability.
Innovative Initiatives
Exploring Bitcoin mining using energy production indicates strategic innovation, potentially opening new revenue streams and enhancing future growth prospects.
Debt Management
Successful debt management by extending debt maturity improves financial flexibility and reduces refinancing risk, supporting long-term financial health.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue Growth
A significant drop in revenue growth poses a risk to future earnings potential and market competitiveness, necessitating strategic adjustments to regain momentum.
Cash Flow Challenges
Declining free cash flow growth limits the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage financial obligations, impacting long-term liquidity.
Operational Challenges
Operational challenges in key segments due to weather impacts and slower milling pace can hinder production efficiency and profitability, affecting future performance.
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$804.94M
Dividend Yield4.34%
Average Volume (3M)573.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.6
Beta (1Y)-0.06
Revenue Growth19.45%
EPS Growth-82.38%
CountryUS
Employees8,896
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.17
Shares Outstanding99,993,160
10 Day Avg. Volume434,506
30 Day Avg. Volume573,837
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.08Price Target Upside12.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering4
Adecoagro SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAdecoagro S.A. operates as an agro-industrial company in South America. It engages in farming crops and other agricultural products, dairy operations, and land transformation activities, as well as sugar, ethanol, and energy production activities. The company is involved in the planting, harvesting, and sale of grains and oilseeds, as well as wheat, corn, soybeans, peanuts, cotton, sunflowers, and others; provision of grain warehousing/conditioning, handling, and drying services to third parties; and purchase and sale of crops produced by third parties. It also plants, harvests, processes, and markets rice; and produces and sells raw milk, UHT, cheese, powder milk, and others. In addition, the company engages in the cultivating, processing, and transforming of sugarcane into ethanol and sugar; and the sale of electricity cogenerated at its sugar and ethanol mills to the grid. Further, it is involved in the identification and acquisition of underdeveloped and undermanaged farmland, and the realization of value through the strategic disposition of assets. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned a total of 219,850 hectares of land, including 18 farms in Argentina, 8 farms in Brazil, and 1 farm in Uruguay, as well as a total of 241 megawatts of installed cogeneration capacity. Adecoagro S.A. was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
How the Company Makes MoneyAdecoagro generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of agricultural commodities such as soybeans, corn, and wheat, as well as from dairy products and sugar. The company capitalizes on its extensive land holdings and advanced agricultural practices to maximize crop yields and ensure high-quality production. Additionally, Adecoagro profits from its renewable energy segment by producing and selling electricity generated from biomass and sugarcane. Key partnerships with distributors and retailers enhance its market reach, while investments in technology and sustainable farming practices contribute to operational efficiency and cost savings, further boosting its earnings.
Adecoagro SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with significant achievements in production and innovative initiatives, such as Bitcoin mining. However, substantial challenges were noted in terms of declining financial performance and increased costs, particularly in the Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy segment.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Production in Farming Business
Total production in the farming business reported a 12% year-over-year increase, driven by a higher planted area and record productivity in rice operations.
Record Rice Yield
Implementation of new technologies resulted in an average yield of 8 tons per hectare in rice, a new record for this business.
Innovative Bitcoin Mining Initiative
Signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Tether to explore using a portion of energy production for Bitcoin mining, indicating a potential new revenue stream.
Strong Ethanol Sales and Pricing
Sold 320,000 cubic meters of ethanol at an average net selling price 18% higher year-over-year, capitalizing on price recovery and clearing storage capacity.
Successful Debt Management
Issued a $500 million bond with a 7.5% coupon, extending average debt life from 2.5 to 4.5 years, improving debt maturity anticipation.
Negative Updates
Significant Decline in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA marked a 60% year-over-year decline, reaching $55 million during the quarter due to lower production and higher costs.
Challenges in Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy Business
Crushing volume in the Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy business was 20% lower year-over-year due to weather impacts and slower milling pace.
Decrease in Net Sales
Net sales in the Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy segment were impacted by lower sugar prices and decreased production, despite increased ethanol sales.
Increased Net Debt and Leverage
Net debt increased by 11% year-over-year, with a net leverage ratio rising to 2.3x due to lower results and higher short-term borrowings.
Pressure on Farming Margins
Farming business faced year-over-year decreases in adjusted EBITDA due to lower international prices, unexpected productivity, and higher costs.
Company Guidance
During Adecoagro's Second Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and insights into their performance and strategic initiatives. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was reported at $55 million, with a year-to-date total of $91 million, marking a 60% year-over-year decline. Sales for the quarter reached $392 million, while year-to-date sales amounted to $716 million. The Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy business in Brazil faced challenges due to extreme weather, impacting crushing volumes which were 20% lower year-over-year at 3.4 million tons for the quarter. Despite this, the company maintains a positive outlook on both sugar and ethanol prices. Within the farming segment, rice production reached a record average yield of 8 tons per hectare, though overall crop yields were below expectations. The company also highlighted a Memorandum of Understanding with Tether to explore Bitcoin mining using their energy production. Additionally, Adecoagro managed a net debt of $699 million, with a leverage ratio of 2.3x, and committed $45 million to shareholder distribution year-to-date.Adecoagro SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Adecoagro SA's financial performance is mixed. The income statement shows profitability despite a significant drop in revenue growth. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but the cash flow statement highlights concerns with declining free cash flow growth. The company needs to address revenue growth and cash flow generation to strengthen its financial position further.Income Statement
Adecoagro SA's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 90.2%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a positive net profit margin of 2.29% and a gross profit margin of 17.39%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also positive at 7.40% and 23.99%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency. Despite the recent revenue decline, the company has shown resilience in maintaining profitability.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.92 in the TTM period, showing a decrease from previous years, which indicates improved leverage management. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 2.56%, suggesting room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 41.85%, indicating a solid equity base relative to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet suggests a stable but not overly aggressive financial strategy.70
Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals challenges in cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate has declined by 20.64% in the TTM period, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.61, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.23, suggesting limited free cash flow relative to net earnings. While the company generates positive cash flow, the declining growth rate poses a risk to future liquidity.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.55B | 1.52B | 1.30B | 1.35B | 1.12B | 817.76M |
| Gross Profit | 270.07M | 361.51M | 415.39M | 465.63M | 484.25M | 335.55M |
| EBITDA | 372.75M | 426.38M | 561.06M | 397.65M | 453.24M | 245.45M |
| Net Income | 35.60M | 92.34M | 226.29M | 108.14M | 130.67M | 1.07M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.28B | 3.11B | 3.16B | 3.11B | 2.58B | 2.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 205.67M | 211.24M | 339.78M | 230.65M | 199.77M | 336.28M |
| Total Debt | 1.27B | 1.12B | 1.28B | 1.35B | 1.06B | 1.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.87B | 1.71B | 1.90B | 1.95B | 1.53B | 1.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.37B | 1.37B | 1.23B | 1.13B | 1.01B | 925.04M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 75.03M | 65.00M | 191.48M | 139.80M | 135.66M | 80.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 323.57M | 328.33M | 434.91M | 370.03M | 348.66M | 257.13M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -211.19M | -231.56M | -111.55M | -299.26M | -175.22M | -121.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -119.46M | -274.00M | -208.74M | -23.57M | -303.13M | -53.92M |
Adecoagro SA Technical Analysis
Negative
8.05
Price Trends
8.68
Negative
8.95
Negative
9.63
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.16
Negative
42.09
Neutral
49.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGRO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.16, below the 50-day MA of 8.68, and below the 200-day MA of 9.63, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGRO.
Adecoagro SA Risk Analysis
Adecoagro SA disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adecoagro SA reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adecoagro SA Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | 1.68B | 11.22 | 7.30% | 3.28% | 1.41% | ― | |
71 Outperform | 379.88M | 15.86 | ― | 6.51% | 0.32% | -42.97% | |
66 Neutral | 297.38M | 28.95 | 3.64% | ― | -3.53% | ― | |
62 Neutral | 1.25B | 52.75 | 1.75% | 2.51% | 4.75% | -88.74% | |
62 Neutral | 272.53M | -27.80 | 4.02% | 1.99% | -14.97% | -278.36% | |
59 Neutral | $804.94M | 22.58 | 2.63% | 4.34% | 19.45% | -82.38% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
8.05
-2.85
-26.15%
FDP
Fresh Del Monte Produce
35.03
6.49
22.74%
LMNR
Limoneira Co
15.10
-11.01
-42.17%
VFF
Village Farms International
2.64
1.71
183.87%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
3.84
-0.58
-13.12%
DOLE
Dole
13.15
-2.76
-17.35%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.