Adecoagro SA (AGRO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.00B
• Dividend Yield: 4.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.21
• Revenue Growth: -7.37%
• EPS Growth: -84.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,896
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): -0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 141,465,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,978,340
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,277,499
• PEG Ratio: 4.45
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.95
• P/FCF Ratio: 196.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 26.23
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.80
• 1Y Price Target: $12.73
• Price Target Upside: 71.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.63B

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.00 ▲(88.68% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/19/26

The score is held back primarily by weak 2025 financial performance (sharp revenue drop, losses, higher leverage, and much lower free cash flow). Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend, but overbought indicators raise pullback risk. Earnings-call guidance points to a potential 2026 recovery from the Profertil integration and urea price exposure, partially offset by elevated leverage, while valuation support is limited by a negative P/E despite a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Scale & Diversification via Profertil

The Profertil acquisition materially increases scale and adds a large, recurring fertilizer business, creating a three-pronged company with more balanced revenues. Over 2–6 months this should reduce earnings volatility, expand cash-generating capacity and improve strategic resilience across commodity cycles.

Fertilizers positioned to capture urea tailwinds

With large production capacity and substantial volumes unpriced, Profertil is structurally exposed to higher urea prices. Given partially fixed gas costs and multi‑year fuel contracts, much of price upside should flow to EBITDA and cash, strengthening medium‑term margins and cash conversion.

Operating cash flow and financing flexibility

Adecoagro continues to generate positive operating cash flow (~$285M in 2025) and secured long‑tenor financing for the acquisition, which cushions liquidity pressures. The mix of long‑dated loans and equity reduces near‑term refinancing risk and supports deliberate deleveraging without disrupting operations.

Negative Factors

Elevated post‑acquisition leverage

Leverage jumped materially after the Profertil purchase, increasing interest and refinancing sensitivity. Higher net debt and 3.3x leverage constrain strategic optionality, force tighter capital allocation, and require sustained cash generation and asset performance to hit the target ~2x leverage range.

Weakened 2025 operating performance

A sharp decline in EBITDA and compressed gross margins in 2025 reveal lower operating resilience. Reduced profitability and negative net income weaken cushion against cycles, making the company more dependent on commodity price recoveries and operational improvements to rebuild durable margin levels.

Operational risk at Fertilizers (downtime)

Extended downtime at the fertilizer plant shows operational vulnerability to third‑party inputs and disruptions. Such outages materially reduced production, sales and EBITDA in 2025 and indicate execution and supply‑chain risks that can impair the segment's ability to reliably deliver cash flow over the medium term.

Adecoagro SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Adecoagro S.A. operates as an agro-industrial company in South America. It engages in farming crops and other agricultural products, dairy operations, and land transformation activities, as well as sugar, ethanol, and energy production activities. The company is involved in the planting, harvesting, and sale of grains and oilseeds, as well as wheat, corn, soybeans, peanuts, cotton, sunflowers, and others; provision of grain warehousing/conditioning, handling, and drying services to third parties; and purchase and sale of crops produced by third parties. It also plants, harvests, processes, and markets rice; and produces and sells raw milk, UHT, cheese, powder milk, and others. In addition, the company engages in the cultivating, processing, and transforming of sugarcane into ethanol and sugar; and the sale of electricity cogenerated at its sugar and ethanol mills to the grid. Further, it is involved in the identification and acquisition of underdeveloped and undermanaged farmland, and the realization of value through the strategic disposition of assets. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned a total of 219,850 hectares of land, including 18 farms in Argentina, 8 farms in Brazil, and 1 farm in Uruguay, as well as a total of 241 megawatts of installed cogeneration capacity. Adecoagro S.A. was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

How the Company Makes Money

Adecoagro makes money by selling a mix of agricultural commodities and value-added agro-industrial products produced from its own operations. Key revenue streams include: (1) Crop farming: revenue from harvesting and selling crops (e.g., grains and oilseeds) to local and export markets; results are influenced by planted area, yields, and commodity prices. (2) Sugar, ethanol, and energy: revenue from processing sugarcane into sugar and ethanol for sale; the company also generates and sells electricity produced from biomass (typically from sugarcane byproducts), creating an additional revenue line tied to generation volumes and power pricing/contracting. (3) Dairy: revenue from producing and selling raw milk and/or dairy products (depending on the specific product mix disclosed by the company), driven by herd productivity, milk prices, and input costs. Across segments, earnings are affected by global and regional commodity prices, weather and biological yields, foreign exchange, and the company’s ability to allocate sugarcane crushing between sugar and ethanol based on relative market economics. Specific material partnerships are null.

Adecoagro SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial results weakened materially in 2025: revenue fell sharply (~83% YoY) and profitability turned negative, while leverage increased (debt-to-equity ~1.18) and free cash flow dropped to ~$21M. The main offset is still-positive operating cash flow (~$285M), but reduced cash conversion and higher debt elevate near-term financial risk.

Income Statement

Operating performance has weakened materially in the most recent annual period (2025): revenue declined sharply (down ~83% year over year) and profitability turned negative (operating loss and a small net loss), with gross margin compressing to ~11% from ~29% in 2024. While EBITDA remained positive in 2025, margins and earnings are far below the strong 2021–2023 levels, highlighting higher volatility and a clear deterioration in the earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased meaningfully in 2025, with debt rising to about $1.95B and debt-to-equity moving up to ~1.18 (from ~0.82 in 2024). Equity also increased, but the company generated a slightly negative return on equity in 2025 after positive returns in prior years, signaling weaker capital efficiency. Overall asset base is sizable, but the step-up in leverage alongside declining profitability elevates balance-sheet risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains positive, with operating cash flow of ~$285M in 2025, but free cash flow fell sharply to ~$21M (down ~60% year over year), indicating reduced cash conversion after capital spending and/or working-capital pressure. Cash flow also covered only ~28% of debt in 2025 versus ~82% in 2024, implying reduced flexibility to delever. The key positive is that the business is still producing operating cash flow even in a loss year, but free-cash-flow durability has weakened.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.37B	1.52B	1.30B	1.35B	1.12B
Gross Profit	154.40M	434.84M	415.39M	465.63M	484.25M
EBITDA	116.71M	412.92M	651.61M	470.89M	453.24M
Net Income	-8.35M	92.34M	226.29M	108.14M	130.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.25B	3.11B	3.16B	3.11B	2.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	472.98M	211.24M	339.78M	329.22M	199.77M
Total Debt	1.95B	1.12B	1.28B	1.35B	1.06B
Total Liabilities	3.46B	1.71B	1.90B	1.95B	1.53B
Stockholders Equity	1.66B	1.37B	1.23B	1.13B	1.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	20.60M	65.00M	191.48M	139.80M	135.66M
Operating Cash Flow	284.86M	328.33M	434.91M	370.03M	348.66M
Investing Cash Flow	-951.77M	-231.56M	-111.55M	-299.26M	-175.22M
Financing Cash Flow	834.49M	-274.00M	-208.74M	-23.57M	-303.13M

Adecoagro SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGRO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.52, below the 50-day MA of 9.42, and below the 200-day MA of 8.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 82.66 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.87 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGRO.

Adecoagro SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FDP	70 Outperform	$1.89B	18.92	4.53%	3.34%	1.11%	414.23%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DOLE	59 Neutral	$1.36B	27.79	3.76%	2.23%	7.09%	-83.75%
ALCO	58 Neutral	$294.55M	-19.99	-127.44%	0.55%	-5.52%	-2194.72%
VFF	55 Neutral	$292.37M	12.72	11.50%	―	-12.68%	―
AGRO	53 Neutral	$2.00B	-484.91	-0.54%	4.40%	-7.37%	-84.53%
LND	49 Neutral	$391.72M	191.55	-0.07%	3.39%	-3.22%	-108.24%

Adecoagro SA Corporate Events

Adecoagro Posts Weaker 2025 Results as Profertil Deal Lifts Scale and Leverage

Adecoagro reported its audited results for the year ended December 31, 2025 on March 16, 2026, showing that full-year performance was pressured by lower commodity prices, mixed productivity and higher U.S.-dollar costs. Consolidated gross sales slipped 2.1% to $1.45 billion, while adjusted EBITDA fell 37.7% to $276.7 million and adjusted net income swung to a loss, reflecting weaker results across sugar, ethanol and energy, fertilizers and farming.

The company’s pro forma figures highlight the impact of its mid-December 2025 acquisition of fertilizer producer Profertil, with pro forma adjusted EBITDA at $467.2 million, still 35.5% below 2024. The deal materially increased Adecoagro’s scale but also drove expansion capex, pushed net debt up 114.5% to $1.12 billion and raised leverage to 4.0 times adjusted EBITDA, underscoring a more levered balance sheet even as management seeks to build a larger, more integrated agribusiness platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGRO) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adecoagro SA stock, see the AGRO Stock Forecast page.