Adecoagro SA (AGRO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $804.94M
• Dividend Yield: 4.35%
• Average Volume (3M): 448.44K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 34.5
• Beta (1Y): -0.06
• Revenue Growth: -7.37%
• EPS Growth: -84.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,896
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 99,993,160
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 497,634
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 448,438
• PEG Ratio: -0.91
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.19
• P/FCF Ratio: 74.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.03
• 1Y Price Target: $8.67
• Price Target Upside: 16.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▲(1.08% Upside)

Adecoagro SA's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenue and high leverage. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, while valuation metrics suggest the stock may be overvalued. Despite some positive developments in ethanol production and strategic acquisitions, financial pressures and market challenges remain significant.

Positive Factors

Ethanol Production Strategy

The strategic shift to increase ethanol production enhances operational flexibility and margin sustainability, capitalizing on favorable market conditions.

Profertil Acquisition

Acquiring Profertil diversifies operations and reduces volatility, strengthening market position and aligning with cost-efficient production strategies.

Dairy Productivity

Record dairy productivity indicates strong operational efficiency and potential for sustained revenue growth in the dairy segment.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Significant decline in revenue highlights challenges in maintaining sales momentum, impacting overall financial performance and growth prospects.

High Leverage

Increased leverage poses financial risk, potentially limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to market fluctuations.

Cash Flow Challenges

Declining cash flow generation indicates liquidity concerns, affecting the company's ability to invest in growth and manage debt effectively.

Adecoagro SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Adecoagro SA (AGRO) is a leading agricultural company based in South America, primarily focused on the production of high-quality crops, livestock, and renewable energy. The company operates across several sectors, including agriculture, dairy, and sugar production, and is known for its diverse portfolio of products, which includes grains such as soybeans and corn, as well as dairy products and ethanol. Adecoagro is committed to sustainable practices and innovation in its operations, positioning itself as a significant player in the agribusiness sector.

How the Company Makes Money

Adecoagro generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of agricultural commodities such as soybeans, corn, and wheat, as well as from dairy products and sugar. The company capitalizes on its extensive land holdings and advanced agricultural practices to maximize crop yields and ensure high-quality production. Additionally, Adecoagro profits from its renewable energy segment by producing and selling electricity generated from biomass and sugarcane. Key partnerships with distributors and retailers enhance its market reach, while investments in technology and sustainable farming practices contribute to operational efficiency and cost savings, further boosting its earnings.

Adecoagro SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Adecoagro SA faces challenges with declining revenue and profitability, coupled with high leverage and reduced cash flow generation. While operational efficiency remains reasonable, the company needs to address cost pressures and improve cash flow to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

The income statement shows declining revenue growth with a negative rate of -11.98% in the TTM period, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum. Gross profit margin has decreased significantly from 31.98% in 2023 to 14.13% in TTM, suggesting increased cost pressures. Net profit margin also declined to 1.71% in TTM, reflecting reduced profitability. However, the company maintains a reasonable EBITDA margin of 26.40%, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.17 in TTM, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity has decreased to 1.69% in TTM, showing reduced efficiency in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 37.64%, suggesting moderate reliance on equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet indicates potential stability concerns due to high leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -31.51% in TTM, indicating challenges in generating cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58, reflecting moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.18, suggesting limited cash available after capital expenditures. Overall, cash flow performance indicates potential liquidity concerns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.37B	1.52B	1.30B	1.35B	1.12B	817.76M
Gross Profit	258.00M	361.51M	415.39M	465.63M	484.25M	335.55M
EBITDA	297.18M	426.38M	651.61M	470.89M	453.24M	266.90M
Net Income	23.45M	92.34M	226.29M	108.14M	130.67M	412.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.65B	3.11B	3.16B	3.11B	2.58B	2.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	365.46M	211.24M	339.78M	329.22M	199.77M	336.28M
Total Debt	1.61B	1.12B	1.28B	1.35B	1.06B	1.17B
Total Liabilities	2.21B	1.71B	1.90B	1.95B	1.53B	1.52B
Stockholders Equity	1.37B	1.37B	1.23B	1.13B	1.01B	925.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	51.39M	65.00M	191.48M	139.80M	135.66M	80.14M
Operating Cash Flow	284.28M	328.33M	434.91M	370.03M	348.66M	257.13M
Investing Cash Flow	-330.14M	-231.56M	-111.55M	-299.26M	-175.22M	-121.92M
Financing Cash Flow	173.96M	-274.00M	-208.74M	-23.57M	-303.13M	-53.92M

Adecoagro SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGRO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.88, below the 50-day MA of 7.76, and below the 200-day MA of 8.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGRO.

Adecoagro SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VFF	76 Outperform	$462.07M	21.82	1.88%	―	-12.68%	―
FDP	69 Neutral	$1.73B	22.07	3.95%	3.32%	1.11%	414.23%
DOLE	63 Neutral	$1.37B	47.26	8.75%	2.40%	7.09%	-83.75%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
LMNR	57 Neutral	$246.36M	―	-4.88%	2.20%	-14.97%	-278.36%
AGRO	52 Neutral	$804.94M	34.48	1.69%	4.35%	-7.37%	-84.53%
LND	48 Neutral	$356.51M	―	-1.12%	3.37%	-3.22%	-108.24%

Adecoagro SA Corporate Events

Adecoagro Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results Amid Market Challenges

On November 11, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. released its financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $115.1 million, marking a 3.7% increase from the previous year, despite a challenging global price scenario. However, gross sales decreased by 29.2% compared to the same quarter last year. The company achieved an all-time crushing record and shifted its focus towards ethanol maximization. The financial performance reflects the company’s strategic adjustments in response to market conditions, impacting its operations and stakeholder interests.

Adecoagro Announces Second Tranche of Cash Dividend

On October 23, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. announced that its Board of Directors approved a cash dividend distribution of $17.5 million, with a dividend per share of approximately $0.17485. This distribution is the second installment of a two-tranche cash dividend, with the first installment having been paid on May 16, 2025, resulting in an annual cash dividend of $35 million.

Adecoagro S.A. Plans Capital Structure Overhaul in Upcoming Shareholders Meeting

Adecoagro S.A. announced an Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders scheduled for October 29, 2025, to discuss significant changes to its capital structure. The agenda includes a proposal to amend, renew, and increase the company’s authorized share capital to three billion US dollars, allowing for the issuance of up to two billion shares. This move aims to provide the company with greater flexibility in issuing shares or securities, potentially impacting its strategic opportunities and market positioning. The Board of Directors recommends shareholders vote in favor of the proposal, emphasizing the importance of flexibility in capital management to seize strategic opportunities and adapt to market conditions.

Adecoagro to Acquire Nutrien’s Stake in Profertil for $600 Million

On September 8, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. announced its agreement to acquire Nutrien Ltd.’s 50% stake in Profertil S.A., South America’s largest granular urea producer. This acquisition, executed through a partnership with Asociación de Cooperativas Argentinas, is valued at approximately $600 million and is expected to close by the end of 2025. The transaction is seen as a strategic move to diversify Adecoagro’s operations and reduce volatility, aligning with its philosophy of being a low-cost producer. Profertil, known for its cost-efficient production and strategic location in Argentina, supplies 60% of the country’s urea consumption and has consistently generated strong financial performance. The acquisition is anticipated to enhance Adecoagro’s agro-industrial platform and strengthen its market position.

Adecoagro Reports Significant EBITDA Decline Amid Market Challenges

Adecoagro S.A. announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, revealing a significant decline in adjusted EBITDA by 60.5% compared to the previous year, attributed to lower global prices impacting its business segments. Despite a slight decrease in gross sales by 1.4%, the company managed to increase its gross sales for the six-month period by 9.9%. The results indicate challenges in maintaining profitability amidst fluctuating market conditions, impacting stakeholders and potentially influencing future strategic adjustments.