Adecoagro (AGRO)
NYSE:AGRO
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Adecoagro SA
(NYSE:AGRO)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(88.68% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is driven by a mixed financial profile (thin margins and higher leverage despite improving cash flow) and a constructive earnings-call outlook (strong Q1 operational results and deleveraging guidance). Technicals are neutral-to-slightly positive, while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E despite a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Integrated, diversified agribusiness
Adecoagro's vertically integrated model—crop farming, sugar/ethanol, fertilizer, dairy and biomass power—creates multiple, offsetting cash streams. This structural diversification smooths earnings over cycles, supports cross-segment optimization and improves long-term resilience to single-commodity shocks.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage post-acquisition
Debt increased materially after the Profertil acquisition and working capital needs, leaving pro forma leverage elevated. Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility, raises interest and refinancing risk, and makes the company more sensitive to cyclical earnings swings over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated, diversified agribusiness
Adecoagro's vertically integrated model—crop farming, sugar/ethanol, fertilizer, dairy and biomass power—creates multiple, offsetting cash streams. This structural diversification smooths earnings over cycles, supports cross-segment optimization and improves long-term resilience to single-commodity shocks.
Read all positive factors
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.97B
Dividend Yield4.4%
Average Volume (3M)1.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)66.8
Beta (1Y)-0.34
Revenue Growth-5.30%
EPS Growth-109.16%
CountryUS
Employees8,896
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)>-0.01
Shares Outstanding144,308,470
10 Day Avg. Volume991,351
30 Day Avg. Volume1,274,830
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.45
Price to Book (P/B)2.45
Price to Sales (P/S)2.84
P/FCF Ratio196.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.17
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit23.40
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.64
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.58Price Target Upside96.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.31B
Adecoagro SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Adecoagro S.A. operates as an agro-industrial company in South America. It engages in farming crops and other agricultural products, dairy operations, and land transformation activities, as well as sugar, ethanol, and energy production activities....
How the Company Makes Money
Adecoagro makes money by selling a mix of agricultural commodities and value-added agro-industrial products produced from its own operations. Key revenue streams include: (1) Crop farming: revenue from harvesting and selling crops (e.g., grains an...
Adecoagro SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial momentum: consolidated adjusted EBITDA more than doubled, the fertilizer business delivered a strong recovery (higher volumes, pricing and margins) and the sugar & ethanol operations set a Q1 crushing record while maximizing ethanol production. Management highlighted full-capacity fertilizer operations post-turnaround, improved cost sourcing for gas, a clear deleveraging plan and continued liquidity. Offsetting factors include weaker sugar/food commodity prices, a ~20% decline in ethanol prices since the season start, front-loaded agricultural costs and elevated post-acquisition leverage (3.2x pro forma) that the company expects to reduce toward ~2.0x by year-end. On balance, positive operational improvements and strong fertilizer tailwinds outweigh the short-term price and cost headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong consolidated profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $86 million in Q1 2026, more than doubling year-over-year (>100% YoY), reflecting diversification and improved earnings potential across the new three-segment structure.
Negative Updates
Weaker prices for several commodities
Lower global prices for sugar, peanuts and rice negatively impacted sales in the food & agriculture segment; sugar sales in the quarter were below last year due to weaker global sugar prices and lower volumes sold.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong consolidated profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $86 million in Q1 2026, more than doubling year-over-year (>100% YoY), reflecting diversification and improved earnings potential across the new three-segment structure.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to stronger 2026 cash generation and faster-than-expected deleveraging, reporting Q1 gross sales of $394 million (+22% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $86 million (more than double YoY) — split $41 million for Sugar, Ethanol & Energy and $53 million for Fertilizers — and highlighted a Q1 crushing record of 2.2 million tons of cane (+49% YoY) with a 96% ethanol mix. They expect low‑double‑digit full‑year growth in crushing volumes and a full year of ethanol maximization, a cost reduction in BRL of roughly 10–15/ton (real terms), and continued upside in fertilizer margins after Q1 urea price improvement (~+16% YoY) and a 68% YoY jump in fertilizer sales; the Profertil plant is now running at full capacity with only 10 downtime days in the quarter (vs. 19 in 2025). Financially, pro forma net leverage was 3.2x with net debt of $1.6 billion (Q1), and management expects leverage to decline toward ~2.0x net debt/EBITDA by the end of 2026, supported by higher EBITDA (especially from fertilizers), a strong liquidity position, and a $35 million approved cash dividend (two $17.5 million installments in May and November).Adecoagro SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.50B | 1.43B | 1.52B | 1.30B | 1.35B | 1.12B |
| Gross Profit | 395.79M | 351.28M | 434.84M | 415.39M | 465.63M | 484.25M |
| EBITDA | 496.68M | 375.62M | 412.92M | 651.61M | 470.89M | 453.24M |
| Net Income | 13.71M | -8.35M | 92.34M | 226.29M | 108.14M | 130.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.19B | 5.25B | 3.11B | 3.16B | 3.11B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 172.53M | 472.98M | 211.24M | 339.78M | 329.22M | 199.77M |
| Total Debt | 2.21B | 1.95B | 1.12B | 1.28B | 1.35B | 1.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.29B | 3.46B | 1.71B | 1.90B | 1.95B | 1.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.76B | 1.66B | 1.37B | 1.23B | 1.13B | 1.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 51.38M | 20.60M | 65.00M | 191.48M | 139.80M | 135.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 289.48M | 284.86M | 328.33M | 434.91M | 370.03M | 348.66M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.15B | -951.77M | -231.56M | -111.55M | -299.26M | -175.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 834.71M | 834.49M | -274.00M | -208.74M | -23.57M | -303.13M |
Adecoagro SA Technical Analysis
Positive
7.42
Price Trends
13.55
Positive
11.13
Positive
9.51
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
52.04
Neutral
72.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGRO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.55, below the 50-day MA of 13.55, and below the 200-day MA of 9.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGRO.
Adecoagro SA Risk Analysis
Adecoagro SA disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adecoagro SA reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adecoagro SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $294.86M | 27.51 | 14.34% | ― | -32.43% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | $1.97B | 66.81 | 0.89% | 4.40% | -5.30% | -109.16% | |
58 Neutral | $302.96M | 6.98 | -18.22% | 0.55% | -66.78% | 86.61% | |
57 Neutral | $1.57B | 45.63 | 3.43% | 3.34% | 0.22% | -52.50% | |
57 Neutral | $1.38B | 10.86 | 3.18% | 2.23% | 11.38% | -38.18% | |
49 Neutral | $369.72M | -38.14 | -0.70% | 3.39% | 0.76% | -105.51% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
12.81
3.60
39.06%
ALCO
Alico
41.31
10.15
32.57%
FDP
Fresh Del Monte Produce
33.29
-0.35
-1.04%
VFF
Village Farms International
2.60
1.36
109.68%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
3.81
0.09
2.42%
DOLE
Dole
14.43
0.77
5.65%
Adecoagro SA Corporate Events
Adecoagro Boosts First-Quarter 2026 EBITDA on Fertilizers and Ethanol Despite Higher Leverage
May 11, 2026
Adecoagro reported its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, on May 11, 2026, highlighting a sharp improvement in profitability driven by its fertilizers and sugar, ethanol and energy units. Gross sales rose 21.6% year on year to $393.5 mi...
Adecoagro Files 2025 Form 20-F With SEC, Enhancing Investor Access to Financials
Apr 29, 2026
On April 29, 2026, Adecoagro S.A. announced that it filed its Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing makes the company’s audited annual financial statements and rela...
Adecoagro Declares First Tranche of $17.5 Million Cash Dividend
Apr 24, 2026
Adecoagro S.A., a South America‑focused sustainable production company listed on the NYSE, operates 210,400 hectares of farmland and industrial plants in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. It produces 1.3 million tons of fertilizers, 3.1 million...
Adecoagro Calls April 15, 2026 AGM to Approve 2025 Results, $35 Million Dividend and Board Changes
Mar 23, 2026
Adecoagro S.A. has convened its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders for April 15, 2026 in Luxembourg, setting an agenda that includes approval of consolidated financial statements for the years ended December 31, 2023, 2024 and 2025, and the co...
Adecoagro Posts Weaker 2025 Results as Profertil Deal Lifts Scale and Leverage
Mar 16, 2026
Adecoagro reported its audited results for the year ended December 31, 2025 on March 16, 2026, showing that full-year performance was pressured by lower commodity prices, mixed productivity and higher U.S.-dollar costs. Consolidated gross sales sl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.