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Adecoagro SA
(NYSE:AGRO)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▼(-0.76% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/19/26
The score is held back primarily by mixed financial quality (thin margins and higher leverage) and weak, downtrending technicals. A very high P/E further pressures the rating, partially offset by a constructive earnings call highlighting strong Q1 EBITDA growth and management’s deleveraging and cash-generation guidance.
Positive Factors
Integrated, diversified value chain
Vertical integration across farming, processing and renewable energy gives recurring operational synergies and margin capture. Owning feedstock, mills and power generation reduces input exposure and supports stable cash flow generation across commodity cycles, aiding long-term resilience and capital allocation.
Negative Factors
Elevated post-acquisition leverage
Material increase in leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest‑rate risk, especially in cyclical commodity markets. Although management targets ~2.0x net leverage by year‑end, sustained earnings shocks or slower integration could delay deleveraging and constrain capital for growth or dividends.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated, diversified value chain
Vertical integration across farming, processing and renewable energy gives recurring operational synergies and margin capture. Owning feedstock, mills and power generation reduces input exposure and supports stable cash flow generation across commodity cycles, aiding long-term resilience and capital allocation.
Read all positive factors
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.44B
Dividend Yield2.97%
Average Volume (3M)788.42K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3301.3
Beta (1Y)-0.33
Revenue Growth-5.29%
EPS Growth-97.13%
CountryUS
Employees10,283
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)<0.01
Shares Outstanding144,308,470
10 Day Avg. Volume633,981
30 Day Avg. Volume788,416
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.44
Price to Book (P/B)2.45
Price to Sales (P/S)2.84
P/FCF Ratio196.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.20Price Target Upside24.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.27B
Adecoagro SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through two segments, Farming; and Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy. The company is involved in the production of a ran...
How the Company Makes Money
Adecoagro makes money primarily by producing, processing, and selling agricultural and food commodities and related co-products through multiple operating segments. A major revenue stream comes from its Sugar, Ethanol & Energy business, where it s...
Adecoagro SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial momentum: consolidated adjusted EBITDA more than doubled, the fertilizer business delivered a strong recovery (higher volumes, pricing and margins) and the sugar & ethanol operations set a Q1 crushing record while maximizing ethanol production. Management highlighted full-capacity fertilizer operations post-turnaround, improved cost sourcing for gas, a clear deleveraging plan and continued liquidity. Offsetting factors include weaker sugar/food commodity prices, a ~20% decline in ethanol prices since the season start, front-loaded agricultural costs and elevated post-acquisition leverage (3.2x pro forma) that the company expects to reduce toward ~2.0x by year-end. On balance, positive operational improvements and strong fertilizer tailwinds outweigh the short-term price and cost headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong consolidated profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $86 million in Q1 2026, more than doubling year-over-year (>100% YoY), reflecting diversification and improved earnings potential across the new three-segment structure.
Negative Updates
Weaker prices for several commodities
Lower global prices for sugar, peanuts and rice negatively impacted sales in the food & agriculture segment; sugar sales in the quarter were below last year due to weaker global sugar prices and lower volumes sold.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong consolidated profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $86 million in Q1 2026, more than doubling year-over-year (>100% YoY), reflecting diversification and improved earnings potential across the new three-segment structure.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to stronger 2026 cash generation and faster-than-expected deleveraging, reporting Q1 gross sales of $394 million (+22% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $86 million (more than double YoY) — split $41 million for Sugar, Ethanol & Energy and $53 million for Fertilizers — and highlighted a Q1 crushing record of 2.2 million tons of cane (+49% YoY) with a 96% ethanol mix. They expect low‑double‑digit full‑year growth in crushing volumes and a full year of ethanol maximization, a cost reduction in BRL of roughly 10–15/ton (real terms), and continued upside in fertilizer margins after Q1 urea price improvement (~+16% YoY) and a 68% YoY jump in fertilizer sales; the Profertil plant is now running at full capacity with only 10 downtime days in the quarter (vs. 19 in 2025). Financially, pro forma net leverage was 3.2x with net debt of $1.6 billion (Q1), and management expects leverage to decline toward ~2.0x net debt/EBITDA by the end of 2026, supported by higher EBITDA (especially from fertilizers), a strong liquidity position, and a $35 million approved cash dividend (two $17.5 million installments in May and November).Adecoagro SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.50B | 1.43B | 1.52B | 1.30B | 1.35B | 1.12B |
| Gross Profit | 395.79M | 351.28M | 434.84M | 415.39M | 465.63M | 484.25M |
| EBITDA | 496.68M | 375.62M | 412.92M | 651.61M | 470.89M | 453.24M |
| Net Income | 13.71M | -8.35M | 92.34M | 226.29M | 108.14M | 130.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.19B | 5.25B | 3.11B | 3.16B | 3.11B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 172.53M | 472.98M | 211.24M | 339.78M | 329.22M | 199.77M |
| Total Debt | 2.21B | 1.95B | 1.12B | 1.28B | 1.35B | 1.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.29B | 3.46B | 1.71B | 1.90B | 1.95B | 1.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.76B | 1.66B | 1.37B | 1.23B | 1.13B | 1.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 51.38M | 20.60M | 65.00M | 191.48M | 139.80M | 135.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 289.48M | 284.86M | 328.33M | 434.91M | 370.03M | 348.66M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.15B | -951.77M | -231.56M | -111.55M | -299.26M | -175.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 834.71M | 834.49M | -274.00M | -208.74M | -23.57M | -303.13M |
Adecoagro SA Technical Analysis
Negative
10.58
Price Trends
10.66
Negative
12.07
Negative
10.14
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Positive
39.82
Neutral
16.35
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGRO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.24, below the 50-day MA of 10.66, and above the 200-day MA of 10.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.35 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGRO.
Adecoagro SA Risk Analysis
Adecoagro SA disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adecoagro SA reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adecoagro SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $233.88M | 5.10 | 14.34% | ― | -32.43% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $280.04M | -15.29 | -18.12% | 0.52% | -66.78% | 86.61% | |
54 Neutral | $1.35B | 23.10 | 3.18% | 2.40% | 11.38% | -38.18% | |
52 Neutral | $1.44B | 3,301.32 | 0.89% | 2.80% | -5.29% | -97.13% | |
49 Neutral | $371.78M | -131.49 | -0.70% | 3.81% | 0.76% | -105.51% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
9.48
0.89
10.34%
ALCO
Alico
38.10
5.98
18.62%
VFF
Village Farms International
1.94
0.29
17.58%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
3.67
0.06
1.66%
DOLE
Dole
14.29
0.53
3.86%
Adecoagro SA Corporate Events
Adecoagro to Acquire Caarapó Mill, Expanding Sugar & Ethanol Cluster in Brazil
Jul 20, 2026
On July 20, 2026, Adecoagro announced it has signed an agreement with Raízen Group to acquire the Caarapó sugar and ethanol mill in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, including owned sugarcane fields and supply contracts. The deal, valued at an...
Adecoagro Boosts First-Quarter 2026 EBITDA on Fertilizers and Ethanol Despite Higher Leverage
May 11, 2026
Adecoagro reported its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, on May 11, 2026, highlighting a sharp improvement in profitability driven by its fertilizers and sugar, ethanol and energy units. Gross sales rose 21.6% year on year to $393.5 mi...
Adecoagro Files 2025 Form 20-F With SEC, Enhancing Investor Access to Financials
Apr 29, 2026
On April 29, 2026, Adecoagro S.A. announced that it filed its Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing makes the company’s audited annual financial statements and rela...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.