Adecoagro (AGRO)
NYSE:AGRO
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Adecoagro SA
(NYSE:AGRO)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(88.68% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/19/26
The score is held back primarily by weak 2025 financial performance (sharp revenue drop, losses, higher leverage, and much lower free cash flow). Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend, but overbought indicators raise pullback risk. Earnings-call guidance points to a potential 2026 recovery from the Profertil integration and urea price exposure, partially offset by elevated leverage, while valuation support is limited by a negative P/E despite a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Scale & Diversification via Profertil
The Profertil acquisition materially increases scale and adds a large, recurring fertilizer business, creating a three-pronged company with more balanced revenues. Over 2–6 months this should reduce earnings volatility, expand cash-generating capacity and improve strategic resilience across commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated post‑acquisition leverage
Leverage jumped materially after the Profertil purchase, increasing interest and refinancing sensitivity. Higher net debt and 3.3x leverage constrain strategic optionality, force tighter capital allocation, and require sustained cash generation and asset performance to hit the target ~2x leverage range.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & Diversification via Profertil
The Profertil acquisition materially increases scale and adds a large, recurring fertilizer business, creating a three-pronged company with more balanced revenues. Over 2–6 months this should reduce earnings volatility, expand cash-generating capacity and improve strategic resilience across commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Adecoagro SA (AGRO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.03B
Dividend Yield4.4%
Average Volume (3M)1.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-0.21
Revenue Growth-7.37%
EPS Growth-84.53%
CountryUS
Employees8,896
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.11
Shares Outstanding141,465,740
10 Day Avg. Volume1,838,416
30 Day Avg. Volume1,992,611
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.45
Price to Book (P/B)2.45
Price to Sales (P/S)2.95
P/FCF Ratio196.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit26.64
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.18
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.08Price Target Upside89.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.92B
Adecoagro SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Adecoagro S.A. operates as an agro-industrial company in South America. It engages in farming crops and other agricultural products, dairy operations, and land transformation activities, as well as sugar, ethanol, and energy production activities....
How the Company Makes Money
Adecoagro makes money by selling a mix of agricultural commodities and value-added agro-industrial products produced from its own operations. Key revenue streams include: (1) Crop farming: revenue from harvesting and selling crops (e.g., grains an...
Adecoagro SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 16, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balances a transformational, strategic positive development—the Profertil acquisition that materially increases scale, diversification and near-term cash generation—against meaningful near-term operational and financial challenges: 2025 EBITDA declines, significant pro forma leverage (3.3x) and Fertilizers downtime. Management presented credible plans to capture fertilizer price tailwinds, reduce costs in the Sugar & Ethanol business, and deleverage over time, while maintaining dividends. Given the substantial strategic upside tempered by real short-term performance and leverage headwinds, the tone is cautiously constructive.Positive Updates
Transformational Acquisition of Profertil
Closed acquisition of Profertil for $1.1 billion (90% equity interest) in mid-December; financed with $400M cash, two ~ $200M long-term debt facilities and $300M equity raise anchored by Tetra. Pro forma scale increases consolidated recurring revenues from ~$1.5B to above $2.0B, with potential to generate ~$700M in adjusted EBITDA and to double cash generation (from ~$150M to ~$300M) on an annualized basis.
Negative Updates
Weakened 2025 Financial Results
Consolidated 2025 results: sales down 2% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA down 38% year-over-year. On a pro forma basis (including a full-year Fertilizers business) revenues declined ~6% YoY and adjusted EBITDA fell ~35% YoY.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transformational Acquisition of Profertil
Closed acquisition of Profertil for $1.1 billion (90% equity interest) in mid-December; financed with $400M cash, two ~ $200M long-term debt facilities and $300M equity raise anchored by Tetra. Pro forma scale increases consolidated recurring revenues from ~$1.5B to above $2.0B, with potential to generate ~$700M in adjusted EBITDA and to double cash generation (from ~$150M to ~$300M) on an annualized basis.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance: for 2026 Adecoagro expects a normalized, full-year performance from the newly added Fertilizers segment (Profertil: 1.3 Mt/y nameplate, ~200k t sold in Jan–Feb, ~1.1 Mt still open to current prices) which management says should drive a recovery in adjusted EBITDA and cash generation (pro forma company sales moved from a $1.5B base to >$2.0B with potential ~ $700M EBITDA and to double cash generation); urea cash cost is cited at ~$180–190/ton; the company forecasts low double‑digit growth in sugarcane crushing, will maximize ethanol (72% mix in the quarter; 58% full year) with ethanol sales near ~20¢/lb eq. in Mato Grosso do Sul, and sees sugar & ethanol cash cost steady at 12.8¢/lb with potential 10–15% unit‑cost reduction; pro forma 2025 revenues were down ~6% and adjusted EBITDA down ~35% for Fertilizers (company-wide 2025 sales -2% and adj. EBITDA -38% YoY) after ~90 days of plant downtime; balance‑sheet and capital priorities: pro forma net debt ~$1.5B and net leverage 3.3x (vs. 1.2x in 2024) with a target near ~2x, acquisition consideration $1.1B for 90% (paid $676M by 12/31; ~ $50M remaining), financed with $400M cash, two ~$200M seven‑year loans (2‑yr grace) and $300M new equity, and a proposed $35M dividend for 2026 (paid May & Nov).Adecoagro SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
41
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.37B | 1.52B | 1.30B | 1.35B | 1.12B |
| Gross Profit | 154.40M | 434.84M | 415.39M | 465.63M | 484.25M |
| EBITDA | 116.71M | 412.92M | 651.61M | 470.89M | 453.24M |
| Net Income | -8.35M | 92.34M | 226.29M | 108.14M | 130.67M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.25B | 3.11B | 3.16B | 3.11B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 472.98M | 211.24M | 339.78M | 329.22M | 199.77M |
| Total Debt | 1.95B | 1.12B | 1.28B | 1.35B | 1.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.46B | 1.71B | 1.90B | 1.95B | 1.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.66B | 1.37B | 1.23B | 1.13B | 1.01B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 20.60M | 65.00M | 191.48M | 139.80M | 135.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 284.86M | 328.33M | 434.91M | 370.03M | 348.66M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -951.77M | -231.56M | -111.55M | -299.26M | -175.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 834.49M | -274.00M | -208.74M | -23.57M | -303.13M |
Adecoagro SA Technical Analysis
Positive
7.42
Price Trends
11.07
Positive
9.57
Positive
8.95
Positive
Market Momentum
1.07
Positive
60.82
Neutral
25.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGRO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.98, below the 50-day MA of 11.07, and below the 200-day MA of 8.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGRO.
Adecoagro SA Risk Analysis
Adecoagro SA disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adecoagro SA reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adecoagro SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $2.03B | 18.92 | 4.53% | 3.34% | 1.11% | 414.23% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $314.24M | 12.72 | 11.50% | ― | -12.68% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $1.49B | 27.79 | 3.76% | 2.23% | 7.09% | -83.75% | |
53 Neutral | $2.03B | -484.91 | -0.54% | 4.40% | -7.37% | -84.53% | |
53 Neutral | $338.50M | -19.99 | -127.44% | 0.55% | -5.52% | -2194.72% | |
49 Neutral | $416.30M | 191.55 | -0.07% | 3.39% | -3.22% | -108.24% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
14.38
3.44
31.44%
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LND
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DOLE
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15.62%
Adecoagro SA Corporate Events
Adecoagro Calls April 15, 2026 AGM to Approve 2025 Results, $35 Million Dividend and Board Changes
Mar 23, 2026
Adecoagro S.A. has convened its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders for April 15, 2026 in Luxembourg, setting an agenda that includes approval of consolidated financial statements for the years ended December 31, 2023, 2024 and 2025, and the co...
Adecoagro Posts Weaker 2025 Results as Profertil Deal Lifts Scale and Leverage
Mar 16, 2026
Adecoagro reported its audited results for the year ended December 31, 2025 on March 16, 2026, showing that full-year performance was pressured by lower commodity prices, mixed productivity and higher U.S.-dollar costs. Consolidated gross sales sl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.