Alico Inc (ALCO)
NASDAQ:ALCO
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Alico
(NASDAQ:ALCO)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$42.00
▼(-2.73% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (sharp TTM revenue decline and negative profitability), with additional drag from soft technical momentum (negative MACD and sub-neutral RSI). Offsetting this are supportive valuation metrics (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a constructive earnings call focused on reiterated guidance, improved EBITDA, and stronger liquidity, tempered by reliance on land-sale gains and long permitting timelines.
Positive Factors
Material Land Monetization and Asset Valuation
Alico’s large land portfolio and explicit PV/NPV estimates create durable optionality: realized development or selective parcel sales can generate substantial cash over multiple years, supporting reinvestment or debt reduction and transforming the business toward higher-value, less cyclical returns.
Negative Factors
Sharp Revenue Decline from Citrus Exit
The deliberate wind-down of citrus caused an acute shrinkage of recurring revenue, materially lowering the company’s operating base. Replacing that lost top line with sustainable, recurring development or leasing income is essential; failure to do so weakens long-term earnings stability and growth prospects.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Material Land Monetization and Asset Valuation
Alico’s large land portfolio and explicit PV/NPV estimates create durable optionality: realized development or selective parcel sales can generate substantial cash over multiple years, supporting reinvestment or debt reduction and transforming the business toward higher-value, less cyclical returns.
Read all positive factors
Alico (ALCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$301.47M
Dividend Yield0.55%
Average Volume (3M)29.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth-66.78%
EPS Growth86.61%
CountryUS
Employees199
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.47
Shares Outstanding7,416,327
10 Day Avg. Volume39,235
30 Day Avg. Volume29,807
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.57
Price to Sales (P/S)6.01
P/FCF Ratio18.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue20.19
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-7.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside4.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.85M
Alico Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alico, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an agribusiness and land management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Alico Citrus, and Land Management and Other Operations. The Alico Citrus segment culti...
How the Company Makes Money
Alico primarily generates revenue from (1) citrus operations—selling fruit produced on its groves (and related citrus activities) into the citrus supply chain—and (2) land-based income streams from its owned acreage, including leasing and other la...
Alico Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a clear and meaningful operational and financial turnaround driven by strategic land monetization, a successful wind-down of capital-intensive citrus operations, improved adjusted EBITDA and a stronger balance sheet with extended runway. Significant regulatory progress (Collier County approval) and high land utilization underpin long-term value potential. Offsetting these positives are large year-over-year revenue declines driven by the citrus exit, dependence on land-sale gains to support near-term profitability, prolonged permitting and execution risk for major developments, and reduced near-term liquidity due to share repurchases. Overall, the company appears to be transitioning toward a development/land-monetization model with promising long-term upside but notable near-term revenue and timing risks.Positive Updates
Profitability Turnaround and Strong EBITDA Improvement
Net income of $11.4 million for the quarter (or $1.49 per diluted share) versus a prior-year net loss of $111.4 million (or $14.58 per diluted share). EBITDA was positive $16.7 million for the quarter versus negative $14.7 million in the prior-year quarter (a $31.4 million improvement). Adjusted EBITDA was $16.9 million versus $12.7 million a year ago, an increase of ~33%.
Negative Updates
Sharp Decline in Reported Revenue
Total revenue for the quarter was $5.3 million versus $18.0 million in the prior-year quarter (down ~70.6%). For the six months revenue was $7.2 million versus $34.9 million a year ago (down ~79.4%). The decline is primarily due to the deliberate wind-down/exit of the capital-intensive citrus operations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Profitability Turnaround and Strong EBITDA Improvement
Net income of $11.4 million for the quarter (or $1.49 per diluted share) versus a prior-year net loss of $111.4 million (or $14.58 per diluted share). EBITDA was positive $16.7 million for the quarter versus negative $14.7 million in the prior-year quarter (a $31.4 million improvement). Adjusted EBITDA was $16.9 million versus $12.7 million a year ago, an increase of ~33%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 guidance with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $14.0 million, updated year‑end cash guidance of about $40 million and net‑debt guidance of roughly $45 million (expecting to carry only the $2.5 million minimum on the revolver), while emphasizing the stronger quarter metrics that support this outlook: quarter‑end cash $52.9M, available borrowings ~$92.5M, total debt $85.5M and net debt $32.6M, working capital $52.2M and current ratio 9.63:1. For the quarter they reported revenue of $5.3M (YTD $7.2M), net income $11.4M, EBITDA $16.7M and adjusted EBITDA $16.9M, and noted land sales YTD $34.6M (including a $26.9M January sale of ~2,950 acres with a ~$19.8M gain) and $10M of buybacks through April (245,399 shares). Management reiterated portfolio metrics—~46,000 acres remaining (≈32,500 farmable with ~97% of farmable acres generating revenue, ~89% of total ag acres utilized), a 5,500‑acre development pipeline with estimated PV $335–$380M realizable in ~5 years, and a management NPV for the ~46,000 acres of $650–$750M—while targeting state approvals in late‑2026/early‑2027, federal approval by end‑2028 and potential construction in 2028–2029.Alico Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.42M | 44.07M | 46.64M | 39.85M | 91.95M | 108.56M |
| Gross Profit | -43.37M | -192.19M | -56.38M | 6.45M | -14.77M | 23.89M |
| EBITDA | 30.76M | -4.44M | 29.50M | 22.86M | 31.51M | 65.50M |
| Net Income | -18.98M | -147.33M | 6.97M | 1.83M | 12.46M | 34.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 199.86M | 201.53M | 398.72M | 428.35M | 409.25M | 433.22M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 52.88M | 38.13M | 3.15M | 1.06M | 865.00K | 886.00K |
| Total Debt | 82.96M | 85.55M | 92.12M | 128.70M | 110.88M | 125.31M |
| Total Liabilities | 92.73M | 93.53M | 142.42M | 177.98M | 160.39M | 183.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 102.38M | 103.03M | 251.16M | 244.99M | 243.74M | 244.72M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.66M | 14.62M | -48.37M | -22.91M | -14.21M | -5.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 15.89M | 20.13M | -30.50M | -6.25M | 6.52M | 16.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 36.73M | 24.14M | 68.18M | -4.12M | 22.47M | -3.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -14.40M | -8.78M | -37.98M | 13.20M | -29.01M | -32.04M |
Alico Technical Analysis
Negative
43.18
Price Trends
41.44
Negative
40.62
Positive
37.51
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.07
Negative
45.28
Neutral
71.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 43.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.94, above the 50-day MA of 41.44, and above the 200-day MA of 37.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALCO.
Alico Risk Analysis
Alico disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alico reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alico Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $289.15M | 6.80 | 14.34% | ― | -32.43% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | $301.47M | -16.36 | -18.22% | 0.55% | -66.78% | 86.61% | |
58 Neutral | $1.75B | 451.54 | 0.89% | 4.40% | -5.30% | -109.16% | |
49 Neutral | $369.52M | -126.53 | -0.70% | 3.39% | 0.76% | -105.51% | |
47 Neutral | $230.32M | -10.20 | -12.83% | 1.99% | -22.82% | -400.45% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ALCO
Alico
40.65
8.79
27.60%
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
12.13
3.25
36.55%
LMNR
Limoneira Co
12.72
-2.83
-18.22%
VFF
Village Farms International
2.53
1.32
109.09%
AFRI
Forafric Global
10.17
2.39
30.72%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
3.77
0.05
1.34%
Alico Corporate Events
Dividends
Alico Declares Modest Second-Quarter 2026 Cash Dividend
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
On March 24, 2026, Alico, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors had declared a second-quarter fiscal 2026 cash dividend of $0.05 per share on its outstanding common stock. The dividend will be paid on April 17, 2026, to shareholders of record...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Alico Shareholders Reelect Board and Ratify Auditor at Meeting
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Alico, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, with 6,124,334 common shares represented in person or by proxy, constituting a quorum based on the January 2, 2026 record date. Shareholders elected all six director n...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.