Alico (ALCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $287.66M
• Dividend Yield: 0.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 27.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.40
• Revenue Growth: -5.52%
• EPS Growth: -2194.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 199
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): -1.11
• Shares Outstanding: 7,656,646
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 33,894
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 27,901
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.01
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.21
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -1.25
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.10
• 1Y Price Target: $42.00
• Price Target Upside: 11.79% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): -3.56
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $7.74M

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(3.81% Upside)

Alico's overall stock score reflects a mix of challenges and opportunities. The most significant factor is the weak financial performance, particularly in profitability and revenue growth. However, positive technical indicators and strategic advancements highlighted in the earnings call provide some optimism. The valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings, but the dividend yield offers a modest income stream. Corporate events like the dividend declaration further support shareholder value.

Positive Factors

Strategic Transformation

The strategic shift from citrus production to a diversified land company positions Alico for sustainable long-term value creation, reducing dependency on volatile citrus markets.

Balance Sheet Strength

A strong balance sheet with reduced net debt enhances financial flexibility, supporting future growth initiatives and providing a buffer against economic uncertainties.

Development Projects

Advancement in real estate projects indicates potential for substantial future revenue, diversifying income streams and reducing reliance on agricultural operations.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

The decline in revenue reflects challenges in transitioning away from citrus operations, impacting short-term financial performance and necessitating successful execution of new strategies.

Profitability Issues

Operational inefficiencies and negative profit margins highlight ongoing profitability challenges, necessitating cost management and operational improvements for sustainable growth.

Net Loss

The significant net loss due to strategic transformation costs underscores the financial burden of restructuring, impacting short-term profitability and requiring careful financial management.

Alico Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alico, Inc. (ALCO) is a leading agricultural company primarily engaged in the cultivation and marketing of citrus fruits, particularly oranges. Based in Florida, Alico operates within the agribusiness sector, focusing on the production of high-quality citrus products for both fresh consumption and processing. The company also manages extensive agricultural land and engages in related activities such as land leasing and sales.

How the Company Makes Money

Alico generates revenue primarily through the sale of citrus fruits, including fresh oranges for the juice market and other citrus products. Key revenue streams include sales to major juice processors and wholesalers. Additionally, Alico benefits from land leasing arrangements and sales of non-core agricultural assets. The company's financial performance is influenced by factors such as citrus prices, crop yields, and demand fluctuations in the juice market. Strategic partnerships with processors and distributors enhance its market reach and revenue potential.

Alico Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alico faces significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and revenue growth. While the balance sheet shows manageable leverage, the negative return on equity and profitability metrics are concerning. Cash flow improvements provide some optimism, but overall financial performance remains weak.

Income Statement

Alico's income statement reflects significant challenges, with negative gross and net profit margins in the TTM period, indicating operational inefficiencies and profitability issues. The revenue growth rate is negative, showing a decline in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, further highlighting profitability concerns.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM period, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is stable, but overall financial health is weakened by poor profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting efficient cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, indicating limited cash available after capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	44.07M	44.07M	46.64M	39.85M	91.95M	108.56M
Gross Profit	-183.57M	-186.83M	-56.38M	6.45M	-14.77M	23.89M
EBITDA	-44.99M	-203.90M	29.50M	22.86M	31.51M	29.56M
Net Income	-147.33M	-147.33M	6.97M	1.83M	12.46M	34.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	201.53M	201.53M	398.72M	428.35M	409.25M	433.22M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	38.13M	38.13M	3.15M	1.06M	865.00K	886.00K
Total Debt	2.75M	2.75M	92.12M	128.70M	110.88M	125.31M
Total Liabilities	93.53M	93.53M	142.42M	177.98M	160.39M	185.61M
Stockholders Equity	103.03M	103.03M	251.16M	244.99M	243.74M	242.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	14.62M	14.62M	-48.37M	-22.91M	-14.34M	-24.73M
Operating Cash Flow	20.13M	20.13M	-30.50M	-6.25M	6.52M	16.50M
Investing Cash Flow	24.14M	24.14M	68.18M	-4.12M	22.47M	-3.27M
Financing Cash Flow	-8.78M	-8.78M	-37.98M	13.20M	-29.01M	-32.04M

Alico Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 37.57
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.18, above the 50-day MA of 34.77, and above the 200-day MA of 32.31, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALCO.

Alico Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VFF	75 Outperform	$464.38M	21.93	1.88%	―	-12.68%	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
ALCO	58 Neutral	$287.66M	-1.95	-83.19%	0.53%	-5.52%	-2194.72%
LMNR	57 Neutral	$265.13M	-27.05	-4.88%	1.99%	-14.97%	-278.36%
AGRO	52 Neutral	$1.04B	31.48	1.69%	4.76%	-7.37%	-84.53%
LND	48 Neutral	$350.93M	-78.68	-1.12%	3.39%	-3.22%	-108.24%

Alico Corporate Events

Alico Declares First-Quarter Fiscal 2026 Cash Dividend

On December 19, 2025, Alico, Inc.’s board of directors declared a first-quarter fiscal 2026 cash dividend of $0.05 per share on its outstanding common stock, payable on January 16, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 2, 2026. The move signals the company’s continued return of capital to shareholders and provides clarity on near-term income for investors holding Alico shares over the record date.

Alico Enters Agreement for Wildlife Corridor Project

On October 27, 2025, the Corkscrew Grove Stewardship District entered into an agreement with the State of Florida Department of Transportation to finance a wildlife-crossing culvert under State Road 82, as part of the Corkscrew Villages Project. This agreement marks an initial step by Alico, Inc. to implement a wildlife corridor, with significant financial commitments to support infrastructure development and potential implications for environmental management and community planning in eastern Collier County.

Alico Secures New Credit Agreement with MetLife

On September 29, 2025, Alico, Inc. completed a refinancing transaction involving several of its Florida-based subsidiaries. The company repaid all outstanding borrowings under a previous loan agreement with Prudential Mortgage Capital Company, terminating the Prudential Credit Agreement. Concurrently, Alico entered into an Eighth Amendment to its credit agreement with MetLife Investment Management, securing an additional $10 million in indebtedness with a maturity date of May 1, 2034. This amendment also involved changes to mortgages and loan-to-value ratio covenants, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and stakeholder interests.