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Alico Inc (ALCO)
NASDAQ:ALCO
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Alico
(NASDAQ:ALCO)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$43.00
▲(4.17% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is held back primarily by sharply deteriorated TTM profitability and revenue trends, partly offset by low leverage and improved TTM cash generation. Technicals are moderately constructive with the stock trading above key moving averages, and the latest earnings call points to progress via land sales and improving EBITDA, though revenue and execution timing risks remain. Valuation is difficult to assess due to losses, with the dividend yield providing some support.
Positive Factors
Low Leverage / Balance Sheet Flexibility
Low reported leverage gives Alico durable financial flexibility to fund development, absorb cyclical crop shocks, and pursue land monetization without immediate refinancing pressure. This structural strength reduces insolvency risk and supports multi‑month execution on strategic projects and shareholder returns if operational cash holds.
Improved Cash Generation & Free Cash Flow
Positive and improving operating and free cash flow provide a more reliable funding base for near‑term operations, land transactions, and development pre‑funding. While cash flow has been volatile historically, current positive FCF reduces dependency on external capital and underpins the company’s ability to execute its pivot away from capital‑intensive citrus over the next several months.
Land Monetization & Development Pipeline
Material land sales, high lease utilization, and a sizeable management NPV create durable optionality: recurring lease royalties now plus multi‑year development value. This asset base supports recurring cash while allowing staged monetization or development, providing a structural alternative revenue stream to replace shrinking citrus operations over the 2–6 month horizon and beyond.
Negative Factors
Severe TTM Profitability & Revenue Decline
Alico’s abrupt TTM swing to heavy losses and sharply lower revenue signals structural earnings volatility and weak operating leverage. Persistent net losses reduce retained capital and can erode investor confidence, constraining capacity to sustain dividends or fund projects from operating earnings if the core agribusiness does not stabilize over the coming months.
Operating Cash Outflows Persist
Continued quarterly operating cash consumption shows core operations still require cash support despite land sales. If outflows persist, reliance on asset sales or credit lines increases, threatening the durability of current liquidity cushions and limiting the company’s flexibility to time development starts or return capital without depleting reserves.
Development Timing & Permitting Risk
A significant portion of Alico’s upside depends on multi‑year development projects that face federal permitting and timing uncertainty. Delays or adverse rulings can push cash realizations out, increase carrying costs, and expose the company to higher execution and market risk, making near‑term revenue and cash forecasts less reliable.
Alico (ALCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$317.75M
Dividend Yield0.55%
Average Volume (3M)29.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth-5.52%
EPS Growth-2194.72%
CountryUS
Employees199
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.45
Shares Outstanding7,656,646
10 Day Avg. Volume39,235
30 Day Avg. Volume29,807
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.57
Price to Sales (P/S)6.01
P/FCF Ratio18.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-1.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda74.88
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.96M
Alico Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAlico, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an agribusiness and land management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Alico Citrus, and Land Management and Other Operations. The Alico Citrus segment cultivates citrus trees to produce citrus for delivery to the processed and fresh citrus markets. The Land Management and Other Operations segment owns and manages land in Collier, Glades, and Hendry Counties; and leasing of land for recreational and grazing purposes, conservation, and mining activities. As of September 30, 2021, it had 83,000 acres of land situated in eight counties in Florida, which include the Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, and Polk. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Fort Myers, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlico generates revenue primarily through the sale of citrus fruits, including fresh oranges for the juice market and other citrus products. Key revenue streams include sales to major juice processors and wholesalers. Additionally, Alico benefits from land leasing arrangements and sales of non-core agricultural assets. The company's financial performance is influenced by factors such as citrus prices, crop yields, and demand fluctuations in the juice market. Strategic partnerships with processors and distributors enhance its market reach and revenue potential.
Alico Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a materially improved financial profile driven by strategic land monetization, a positive EBITDA swing, strengthened liquidity, and near-full agricultural lease utilization — all indicating successful execution of the transformation away from capital-intensive citrus operations. Key achievements include $34.5M YTD land sales, $34.8M cash on hand, positive EBITDA of $2.4M, and a 97% farmable acreage utilization rate. Offsetting these positives are a steep year-over-year decline in total revenue (driven by the deliberate exit from citrus), ongoing operating cash outflows ($5.5M used in operations), uncertainty around permitting and timing for major development projects, and a transcript inconsistency on the total debt figure. Overall, the call emphasizes progress and optionality but acknowledges near-term revenue visibility and timing risks for development execution.Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive EBITDA Turnaround
EBITDA of $2.4M in Q1 FY2026 versus negative $6.7M in prior-year period — a $9.1M improvement and a swing from negative to positive that validates the new operating model; adjusted EBITDA of $2.7M (prior year -$6.7M).
Material Reduction in Net Loss
Net loss narrowed to $3.5M ($0.45 per diluted share) from $9.2M ($1.20 per diluted share) in the prior-year quarter — an improvement of $5.7M, or approximately a 62% reduction in the loss magnitude.
Strong Liquidity Position
Cash and cash equivalents of $34.8M at quarter end, $92.5M available under the credit facility, current ratio of 14.39:1, and guidance to finish FY2026 with roughly $50M in cash and net debt reduced to approximately $35M.
Significant Land Sales and Monetization
Generated $7.7M from land sales in the quarter (gain ~ $4.9M) and achieved $34.5M in total land sales year-to-date through January 2026, including a subsequent 2,950-acre citrus grove sale for $26.8M.
High Farmable Land Utilization
Following new lease agreements, Weco achieved 97% utilization of approximately 32,500 farmable agricultural acres, supporting diversified, recurring revenue streams from farming leases and royalties.
Diversified Revenue Growth in Non-Citrus Operations
Production, land management, and other operations revenue rose 77%, driven by higher rock and sand royalties and farming lease revenue, reflecting diversification away from capital-intensive citrus production.
Development Pipeline and Regulatory Milestones
Corkscrew Grove Stewardship District unanimously approved by the Florida legislature; strategic partnership with Florida DOT secured a $5M wildlife underpass; four near-term projects (Corkscrew Grove Villages, Bonnet Lake, Saddlebag Grove, Plant World) totaling ~5,500 acres have an estimated present value of $335M–$380M and could be realized within five years.
Management NPV Valuation and Capital Returned Historically
Management's NPV analysis values the ~46,000-acre portfolio at $650M–$750M versus market capitalization ~ $313M (as stated), and the company has returned over $190M to shareholders since 2015 via dividends, buybacks and voluntary debt reduction.
Negative Updates
Sharp Decline in Total Revenue
Total revenue fell to $1.9M for the quarter from $16.9M in the prior-year period — a decline of approximately 88.8%, primarily reflecting the substantial de-emphasis and exit from capital-intensive citrus production.
Citrus Segment Collapse and Remaining Gross Loss
Citrus revenue declined to $0.9M from $16.3M year-over-year (a ~94.5% decrease). The citrus segment still produced a gross loss of $6.5M in Q1 despite the reduced scale, though this gross loss improved versus prior year ($8.8M).
Operating Cash Outflow Persists
Net cash used in operating activities remained an outflow of $5.5M (improved from $7.6M prior year, a ~27.6% reduction) — indicating the business still consumed cash from operations in the quarter.
Reported Debt Figure Inconsistency
Transcript reports 'total debt remained stable at $85.5 billion' alongside net debt of $50.7M — an apparent typographical or disclosure inconsistency that could create investor confusion (net debt figure of $50.7M is material and consistent elsewhere).
Timing and Permitting Uncertainty for Development
While Collier County final decision for Corkscrew is expected in 2026 (management referenced possible Q3/Q4 timing), federal approvals (Army Corps of Engineers, Fish & Wildlife) remain required and are expected to take the longest, creating timing risk before 'shovels in the ground' (construction possibly beginning as early as 2028).
Limited Near-Term Revenue Visibility from Farmland
Although farmland utilization reached 97%, management declined to provide quantified forward guidance on the cash flow contribution from leased farmland, leaving some uncertainty for near-term revenue and cash flow modeling.
Company Guidance
Management guided to adjusted EBITDA of roughly $14.0 million for fiscal 2026 and expects to finish the year with about $50 million in cash and net debt reduced to approximately $35 million (with only a $2.5 million minimum required revolver balance), while cautioning that any shareholder returns (dividends, buybacks, tender offers) would lower ending cash and raise net debt; supportive interim metrics cited on the call include Q1 positive EBITDA of $2.4M (adjusted EBITDA $2.7M), a Q1 net loss of $3.5M (–$0.45 per diluted share), cash of $34.8M at quarter end, net debt of $50.7M, $7.7M of land sales in Q1 (YTD through January land sales of $34.5M, including a $26.8M January sale and ~ $4.9M gain), $92.5M available on the credit facility, a stated minimum liquidity requirement of $5.8M, ~97% of farmable acreage leased, management NPV of the ~46,000‑acre portfolio of $650–$750M, and an estimated present value of $335–$380M for four near‑term projects (≈5,500 acres) expected to be realized within five years.Alico Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Results are mixed: the income statement is severely weak with a sharp TTM revenue decline and a very large net loss, but the balance sheet shows low leverage and the cash-flow picture is a relative bright spot with positive, improved TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow despite historical volatility.Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) profitability is severely pressured, with a very large net loss and deeply negative gross and operating profitability, indicating significant cost/impairment pressure relative to revenue. Revenue also declined sharply in TTM, signaling a weaker near-term demand/volume backdrop. While the company posted positive net income in 2021–2024, the abrupt swing to heavy losses in 2025 points to elevated earnings volatility and reduced predictability.18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears low in the latest period (TTM debt is small versus equity), which is a key balance-sheet strength and provides flexibility. However, returns on equity are strongly negative in TTM/2025, reflecting the impact of large losses on shareholder value creation. The step-down in equity and assets versus prior years also suggests the balance sheet has absorbed meaningful valuation hits, increasing sensitivity if weak operating conditions persist.56
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative bright spot: TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive and improved, with free cash flow growth meaningfully positive. That said, the cash-flow profile has been volatile historically (notably negative operating and free cash flow in 2023–2024), and the sharp losses in TTM raise questions about durability—cash flow is currently holding up better than earnings, but the divergence may not be sustainable if operational headwinds continue.62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 29.06M | 44.07M | 46.64M | 39.85M | 91.95M | 108.56M |
| Gross Profit | -189.51M | -192.19M | -56.38M | 6.45M | -14.77M | 23.89M |
| EBITDA | 4.95M | -4.44M | 29.50M | 22.86M | 31.51M | 65.50M |
| Net Income | -141.65M | -147.33M | 6.97M | 1.83M | 12.46M | 34.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 194.96M | 201.53M | 398.72M | 428.35M | 409.25M | 433.22M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 34.76M | 38.13M | 3.15M | 1.06M | 865.00K | 886.00K |
| Total Debt | 85.50M | 85.55M | 92.12M | 128.70M | 110.88M | 125.31M |
| Total Liabilities | 90.50M | 93.53M | 142.42M | 177.98M | 160.39M | 183.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 99.62M | 103.03M | 251.16M | 244.99M | 243.74M | 244.72M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.28M | 14.62M | -48.37M | -22.91M | -14.21M | -5.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 22.25M | 20.13M | -30.50M | -6.25M | 6.52M | 16.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 29.43M | 24.14M | 68.18M | -4.12M | 22.47M | -3.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.32M | -8.78M | -37.98M | 13.20M | -29.01M | -32.04M |
Alico Technical Analysis
Positive
41.28
Price Trends
39.22
Positive
36.80
Positive
34.66
Positive
Market Momentum
0.57
Positive
57.62
Neutral
77.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.15, above the 50-day MA of 39.22, and above the 200-day MA of 34.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALCO.
Alico Risk Analysis
Alico disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alico reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alico Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $398.54M | 18.82 | 1.88% | ― | -12.68% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | $317.75M | -2.24 | -83.19% | 0.55% | -5.52% | -2194.72% | |
52 Neutral | $1.32B | 38.03 | 1.69% | 4.40% | -7.37% | -84.53% | |
49 Neutral | $255.65M | -15.21 | -4.88% | 1.99% | -14.97% | -278.36% | |
49 Neutral | $409.33M | -592.96 | -1.12% | 3.39% | -3.22% | -108.24% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ALCO
Alico
41.50
13.12
46.23%
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
9.32
-0.94
-9.14%
LMNR
Limoneira Co
14.10
-7.25
-33.96%
VFF
Village Farms International
3.45
2.77
407.35%
AFRI
Forafric Global
9.65
0.63
6.98%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
4.21
0.51
13.78%
Alico Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Alico Shareholders Reelect Board and Ratify Auditor at Meeting
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Alico, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, with 6,124,334 common shares represented in person or by proxy, constituting a quorum based on the January 2, 2026 record date. Shareholders elected all six director nominees—George R. Brokaw, Katherine R. English, John E. Kiernan, Toby K. Purse, Adam H. Putnam, and Eric Speron—to serve until the 2027 Annual Meeting of Shareholders.
Investors also ratified the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as Alico’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026. The approvals signal continued shareholder support for the company’s existing leadership and audit oversight, with no additional proposals brought forward for a vote at the meeting.
The most recent analyst rating on (ALCO) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alico stock, see the ALCO Stock Forecast page.
Dividends
Alico Declares First-Quarter Fiscal 2026 Cash Dividend
Positive
Dec 19, 2025
On December 19, 2025, Alico, Inc.’s board of directors declared a first-quarter fiscal 2026 cash dividend of $0.05 per share on its outstanding common stock, payable on January 16, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 2, 2026. The move signals the company’s continued return of capital to shareholders and provides clarity on near-term income for investors holding Alico shares over the record date.
The most recent analyst rating on (ALCO) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alico stock, see the ALCO Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.