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Alico Inc (ALCO)
NASDAQ:ALCO
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Alico (ALCO) AI Stock Analysis

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ALCO

Alico

(NASDAQ:ALCO)

Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▼(-1.58% Downside)
Alico's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, with significant challenges in revenue and profitability. While technical indicators and earnings call insights provide some positive aspects, the negative P/E ratio and ongoing operational inefficiencies weigh heavily on the score. The company's strategic transformation and strong cash position offer some hope for future improvement.

Alico (ALCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Alico Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlico, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an agribusiness and land management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Alico Citrus, and Land Management and Other Operations. The Alico Citrus segment cultivates citrus trees to produce citrus for delivery to the processed and fresh citrus markets. The Land Management and Other Operations segment owns and manages land in Collier, Glades, and Hendry Counties; and leasing of land for recreational and grazing purposes, conservation, and mining activities. As of September 30, 2021, it had 83,000 acres of land situated in eight counties in Florida, which include the Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, and Polk. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Fort Myers, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlico generates revenue primarily through the sale of fresh citrus fruit, particularly oranges, which are sold to various markets including juice processors, retail grocery stores, and wholesalers. The company's revenue model is heavily reliant on the quantity and quality of its citrus yield, influenced by factors such as weather conditions, pest management, and agricultural practices. Additionally, Alico engages in land management and real estate activities, which provide supplementary revenue streams through leasing and sales of non-core land assets. Strategic partnerships with distributors and marketers in the citrus industry also play a crucial role in expanding Alico's market reach and optimizing its sales efforts, contributing to its overall earnings.

Alico Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 03, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant progress in Alico's strategic transformation towards a diversified land company, with accomplishments in land sales and regulatory approvals. However, the company faced challenges with decreased revenue and increased losses, primarily due to external factors like Hurricane Milton. Despite these challenges, the company has strengthened its cash position and remains optimistic about its future prospects.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Completion of Major Citrus Harvest
Completion of the final major citrus harvest, marking the transition from capital-intensive citrus production to focusing on land development and diversified usage.
Exceeding Land Sales Guidance
Year-to-date land sales of $23.5 million from approximately 2,794 acres sold, exceeding the original $20 million guidance for fiscal 2025.
Cash and Liquidity Strength
Cash position strengthened to $42.1 million with a strong liquidity profile, supported by $16 million in crop insurance proceeds.
Regulatory Milestone for Corkscrew Grove
Approval of House Bill 4041 for the Corkscrew Grove stewardship district, facilitating development and infrastructure financing.
Increased EBITDA
EBITDA increased to $19.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to $1.3 million for the same period in 2024.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Revenue decreased 38% to $8.4 million for the third quarter of 2025 compared to $13.6 million for the prior year period.
Net Loss Increase
Net loss attributable to Alico common stockholders increased to $18.3 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to $2 million for the same period in 2024.
Impact of Hurricane Milton
Lower harvest volumes due to the impact of Hurricane Milton, contributing to decreased revenue and increased operating expenses.
Increased Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses increased to $36.4 million for the third quarter of 2025, from $17.9 million in the prior year, due to winding down citrus operations and tree impairment.
Company Guidance
During the Alico Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, significant progress in the company's strategic transformation was highlighted. Alico completed its final major citrus harvest, marking the end of its capital-intensive citrus production and shifting focus to long-term land development. The company generated $9.3 million from land and equipment sales in Q3, exceeding its original $20 million guidance for fiscal 2025 with year-to-date land sales totaling $23.5 million. Alico also received $16 million in crop insurance proceeds, bolstering its financial position to a robust $42.1 million cash position. The Corkscrew Grove Villages development project achieved a major milestone with the approval of House Bill 4041, aiding in infrastructure financing and natural area management. Alico successfully negotiated leases for 5,250 acres for citrus growing and engaged in discussions with vegetable and fruit growers, maintaining productive use of agricultural lands. The company anticipates $20 million in adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025, with potential land sales reaching $45 million, and projects significant real estate development value from its 5,500 acres of high-value properties.

Alico Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Alico faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue and profitability in the TTM period. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage but poor return on equity, while cash flow performance is inconsistent. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and improve cash generation to stabilize its financial position.
Income Statement
25
Negative
Alico's income statement reveals significant challenges, with negative gross profit and net profit margins in the TTM period. The company has experienced a revenue decline of over 10% in the TTM, indicating a downward trend. Historical data shows fluctuating revenue growth and profitability, with occasional positive net margins. However, the recent negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight ongoing operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet shows a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM period, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting poor profitability. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the company's equity position appears stable relative to its assets. Historical data indicates fluctuating debt levels and a declining equity base, which could pose future risks.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals a negative free cash flow growth rate in the TTM, indicating cash generation issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some operational cash flow strength, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is less favorable. Historical cash flow data shows inconsistent free cash flow performance, with periods of negative growth and coverage ratios.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue44.20M46.64M39.85M91.95M108.56M92.51M
Gross Profit-196.68M-56.38M6.45M-14.77M23.89M17.92M
EBITDA-61.61M29.50M22.86M31.51M29.56M51.88M
Net Income-156.97M6.97M1.83M12.46M34.86M23.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets210.56M398.72M428.35M409.25M433.22M423.94M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments42.07M3.15M1.06M865.00K886.00K3.16M
Total Debt85.23M92.12M128.70M110.88M125.31M150.91M
Total Liabilities93.86M142.42M177.98M160.39M185.61M202.16M
Stockholders Equity111.73M251.16M244.99M243.74M242.20M216.34M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow5.45M-48.37M-22.91M-14.34M-24.73M-21.11M
Operating Cash Flow11.06M-30.50M-6.25M6.52M16.50M1.05M
Investing Cash Flow22.78M68.18M-4.12M22.47M-3.27M9.49M
Financing Cash Flow-118.00K-37.98M13.20M-29.01M-32.04M-14.69M

Alico Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price33.53
Price Trends
50DMA
32.92
Positive
100DMA
31.64
Positive
200DMA
30.07
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.31
Positive
RSI
52.14
Neutral
STOCH
15.21
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.57, above the 50-day MA of 32.92, and above the 200-day MA of 30.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.21 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALCO.

Alico Risk Analysis

Alico disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alico reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Alico Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
84
Outperform
$5.48B4.4355.96%7.31%83.19%339.22%
71
Outperform
$385.93M6.666.28%6.27%0.32%-42.97%
63
Neutral
$20.50B14.76-2.72%3.09%1.90%-4.74%
59
Neutral
$827.94M23.202.63%4.21%19.45%-82.38%
57
Neutral
$288.38M36.96-0.97%1.90%-0.94%0.47%
47
Neutral
$257.50M32.96-82.35%0.59%-4.72%-700.99%
$225.70M-230.12%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ALCO
Alico
33.53
6.10
22.24%
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
8.28
-2.76
-25.00%
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods
113.83
50.87
80.80%
LMNR
Limoneira Co
15.77
-8.86
-35.97%
AFRI
Forafric Global
8.22
-2.74
-25.00%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
3.99
-0.45
-10.14%

Alico Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Alico Extends EVP’s Term with New Incentives
Neutral
Jul 18, 2025

On July 14, 2025, Danny Sutton resigned as President of Alico Citrus, effective August 1, 2025. Additionally, Alico, Inc. amended the employment agreement with Mitch Hutchcraft, Executive Vice President – Real Estate, on July 18, 2025, extending his term through September 30, 2030, with salary and bonus adjustments. This amendment includes performance-based incentives tied to real estate project milestones, potentially impacting the company’s real estate operations and stakeholder interests.

Dividends
Alico Declares Third Quarter 2025 Cash Dividend
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Alico, Inc. announced a cash dividend of $0.05 per share for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. This dividend will be paid to shareholders on July 11, 2025, with a record date of June 27, 2025, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

Business Operations and Strategy
Alico Ends Orange Purchase Agreement with Tropicana
Neutral
May 23, 2025

Alico, Inc. announced that on May 23, 2025, it mutually terminated its Orange Purchase Agreement with Tropicana Manufacturing Company, Inc., originally dated April 11, 2024. The termination, effective immediately, includes a mutual release clause and requires all obligations for the 2024/2025 Crop Year to be settled by July 15, 2025.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025