Alico Inc (ALCO)
NASDAQ:ALCO
Top Page
Alico
(NASDAQ:ALCO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
▼(-1.50% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/25/26
ALCO scores in the low-to-mid 50s primarily because TTM profitability and revenue trends are severely weak, offset by low leverage, improved recent cash generation, and a more constructive outlook from management tied to land monetization and FY2026 EBITDA guidance. Technical momentum is currently neutral-to-soft, and valuation is difficult to support on earnings due to losses despite the high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Low Leverage / Balance Sheet Flexibility
Alico's low leverage gives durable financial flexibility to fund land development, absorb agricultural cyclicality, and service operations without near-term solvency pressure. This strengthens capacity to pursue monetization and dividend decisions while limiting refinancing risk over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Sharp Revenue Decline
The deliberate exit and de‑emphasis of citrus led to a material collapse in topline scale, reducing operating leverage and making near‑term revenue visibility weak. Replacing lost citrus cash flows through leases and development will take time and creates durable earnings volatility risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low Leverage / Balance Sheet Flexibility
Alico's low leverage gives durable financial flexibility to fund land development, absorb agricultural cyclicality, and service operations without near-term solvency pressure. This strengthens capacity to pursue monetization and dividend decisions while limiting refinancing risk over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Alico (ALCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$310.94M
Dividend Yield0.55%
Average Volume (3M)29.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth-5.52%
EPS Growth-2194.72%
CountryUS
Employees199
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.45
Shares Outstanding7,656,646
10 Day Avg. Volume39,235
30 Day Avg. Volume29,807
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.57
Price to Sales (P/S)6.01
P/FCF Ratio18.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-1.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda73.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside10.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.40M
Alico Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alico, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an agribusiness and land management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Alico Citrus, and Land Management and Other Operations. The Alico Citrus segment culti...
How the Company Makes Money
Alico primarily generates revenue from (1) citrus operations—selling fruit produced on its groves (and related citrus activities) into the citrus supply chain—and (2) land-based income streams from its owned acreage, including leasing and other la...
Alico Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a materially improved financial profile driven by strategic land monetization, a positive EBITDA swing, strengthened liquidity, and near-full agricultural lease utilization — all indicating successful execution of the transformation away from capital-intensive citrus operations. Key achievements include $34.5M YTD land sales, $34.8M cash on hand, positive EBITDA of $2.4M, and a 97% farmable acreage utilization rate. Offsetting these positives are a steep year-over-year decline in total revenue (driven by the deliberate exit from citrus), ongoing operating cash outflows ($5.5M used in operations), uncertainty around permitting and timing for major development projects, and a transcript inconsistency on the total debt figure. Overall, the call emphasizes progress and optionality but acknowledges near-term revenue visibility and timing risks for development execution.Positive Updates
Positive EBITDA Turnaround
EBITDA of $2.4M in Q1 FY2026 versus negative $6.7M in prior-year period — a $9.1M improvement and a swing from negative to positive that validates the new operating model; adjusted EBITDA of $2.7M (prior year -$6.7M).
Negative Updates
Sharp Decline in Total Revenue
Total revenue fell to $1.9M for the quarter from $16.9M in the prior-year period — a decline of approximately 88.8%, primarily reflecting the substantial de-emphasis and exit from capital-intensive citrus production.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Positive EBITDA Turnaround
EBITDA of $2.4M in Q1 FY2026 versus negative $6.7M in prior-year period — a $9.1M improvement and a swing from negative to positive that validates the new operating model; adjusted EBITDA of $2.7M (prior year -$6.7M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to adjusted EBITDA of roughly $14.0 million for fiscal 2026 and expects to finish the year with about $50 million in cash and net debt reduced to approximately $35 million (with only a $2.5 million minimum required revolver balance), while cautioning that any shareholder returns (dividends, buybacks, tender offers) would lower ending cash and raise net debt; supportive interim metrics cited on the call include Q1 positive EBITDA of $2.4M (adjusted EBITDA $2.7M), a Q1 net loss of $3.5M (–$0.45 per diluted share), cash of $34.8M at quarter end, net debt of $50.7M, $7.7M of land sales in Q1 (YTD through January land sales of $34.5M, including a $26.8M January sale and ~ $4.9M gain), $92.5M available on the credit facility, a stated minimum liquidity requirement of $5.8M, ~97% of farmable acreage leased, management NPV of the ~46,000‑acre portfolio of $650–$750M, and an estimated present value of $335–$380M for four near‑term projects (≈5,500 acres) expected to be realized within five years.Alico Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 29.06M | 44.07M | 46.64M | 39.85M | 91.95M | 108.56M |
| Gross Profit | -189.51M | -192.19M | -56.38M | 6.45M | -14.77M | 23.89M |
| EBITDA | 4.95M | -4.44M | 29.50M | 22.86M | 31.51M | 65.50M |
| Net Income | -141.65M | -147.33M | 6.97M | 1.83M | 12.46M | 34.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 194.96M | 201.53M | 398.72M | 428.35M | 409.25M | 433.22M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 34.76M | 38.13M | 3.15M | 1.06M | 865.00K | 886.00K |
| Total Debt | 85.50M | 85.55M | 92.12M | 128.70M | 110.88M | 125.31M |
| Total Liabilities | 90.50M | 93.53M | 142.42M | 177.98M | 160.39M | 183.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 99.62M | 103.03M | 251.16M | 244.99M | 243.74M | 244.72M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.28M | 14.62M | -48.37M | -22.91M | -14.21M | -5.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 22.25M | 20.13M | -30.50M | -6.25M | 6.52M | 16.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 29.43M | 24.14M | 68.18M | -4.12M | 22.47M | -3.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.32M | -8.78M | -37.98M | 13.20M | -29.01M | -32.04M |
Alico Technical Analysis
Positive
40.61
Price Trends
40.26
Positive
37.77
Positive
35.47
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.10
Negative
57.63
Neutral
86.06
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.31, above the 50-day MA of 40.26, and above the 200-day MA of 35.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.06 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALCO.
Alico Risk Analysis
Alico disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alico reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alico Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
55 Neutral | $308.48M | 42.45 | 11.50% | ― | -12.68% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $310.94M | -19.99 | -127.44% | 0.55% | -5.52% | -2194.72% | |
53 Neutral | $1.99B | -484.91 | -0.54% | 4.40% | -7.37% | -84.53% | |
49 Neutral | $246.62M | -6.84 | -4.88% | 1.99% | -14.97% | -278.36% | |
49 Neutral | $389.52M | 191.55 | -0.07% | 3.39% | -3.22% | -108.24% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ALCO
Alico
40.61
10.90
36.69%
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
14.05
3.33
31.08%
LMNR
Limoneira Co
13.62
-3.83
-21.93%
VFF
Village Farms International
2.68
2.08
343.71%
AFRI
Forafric Global
9.31
0.71
8.26%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
3.97
0.12
3.12%
Alico Corporate Events
Dividends
Alico Declares Modest Second-Quarter 2026 Cash Dividend
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
On March 24, 2026, Alico, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors had declared a second-quarter fiscal 2026 cash dividend of $0.05 per share on its outstanding common stock. The dividend will be paid on April 17, 2026, to shareholders of record...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Alico Shareholders Reelect Board and Ratify Auditor at Meeting
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Alico, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, with 6,124,334 common shares represented in person or by proxy, constituting a quorum based on the January 2, 2026 record date. Shareholders elected all six director n...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.