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Alico
(NASDAQ:ALCO)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
▲(0.98% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
The score is held down primarily by weak and inconsistent operating/cash-flow performance (negative operating and free cash flow) and an expensive earnings multiple (P/E 177.5). These are partly offset by balance-sheet strength in the TTM view and a constructive earnings-call backdrop featuring raised EBITDA guidance and improved liquidity, while technical indicators remain mostly neutral with slightly negative momentum.
Positive Factors
Liquidity & Net Debt Reduction
Management reports a meaningful cash build and net debt reduction alongside large undrawn credit capacity. This durable liquidity cushion lowers refinancing risk, funds operations through the multi‑year transition, enables selective land monetization and shareholder returns without forcing distressed asset sales.
Negative Factors
Negative Operating & Free Cash Flow
Trailing‑12‑month operating and free cash flow are negative and cash conversion has been inconsistent historically. Sustained negative cash flow raises dependence on asset sales and credit, constraining capital allocation, limiting reinvestment and shareholder return durability, and increasing execution risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Liquidity & Net Debt Reduction
Management reports a meaningful cash build and net debt reduction alongside large undrawn credit capacity. This durable liquidity cushion lowers refinancing risk, funds operations through the multi‑year transition, enables selective land monetization and shareholder returns without forcing distressed asset sales.
Read all positive factors
Alico (ALCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$304.46M
Dividend Yield0.5%
Average Volume (3M)29.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)190.9
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth-61.38%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees20
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.21
Shares Outstanding7,418,561
10 Day Avg. Volume39,235
30 Day Avg. Volume29,807
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.57
Price to Sales (P/S)6.01
P/FCF Ratio18.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside16.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.55M
Alico Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alico, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, functions as a prominent agribusiness and land management enterprise primarily within the United States. The company's operations are strategically divided into two core segments: Alico Citrus, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Alico makes money primarily through (1) citrus-related revenues and (2) land and resource management monetization. (1) Citrus operations: The company generates revenue by producing citrus fruit (notably oranges and related varieties) and selling i...
Alico Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful balance sheet and strategic progress (strong cash build, sizable net debt reduction, large undrawn credit capacity, land monetization transactions, share repurchases, high lease utilization, and advancement of entitlement work) that underpin confidence in the multi‑year transformation. However, material near‑term headwinds remain: Q3 EBITDA was down sharply versus the prior year quarter, year‑to‑date revenue declined substantially due to the citrus wind‑down, total debt remains elevated, and management expects Q4 to be a usage quarter as recurring expenses continue against a lower revenue run rate. On balance, the positive developments around liquidity, land monetization and entitlement progress outweigh the short‑term operating and revenue declines, though the company signals a multiyear path and a potentially weak Q4.Positive Updates
Material Improvement in Cash Position and Net Debt Reduction
Cash and cash equivalents of $55.6 million at quarter end, up $17.5 million (≈45.9%) from fiscal year-end ($38.1M). Net debt reduced to $29.8 million, down $17.6 million (≈37.1%) from $47.4M. Available borrowings under the credit facility of approximately $92.5 million and working capital of $50.6 million (current ratio 7.96:1) provide substantial liquidity and flexibility.
Negative Updates
Quarterly EBITDA Decline Versus Prior Year Quarter
Q3 EBITDA was $4.6 million compared to $19.2 million in the prior year quarter, a decrease of approximately 76.0%. Management attributes the decline principally to lower crop insurance proceeds and a smaller gain on sale of property and equipment.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Material Improvement in Cash Position and Net Debt Reduction
Cash and cash equivalents of $55.6 million at quarter end, up $17.5 million (≈45.9%) from fiscal year-end ($38.1M). Net debt reduced to $29.8 million, down $17.6 million (≈37.1%) from $47.4M. Available borrowings under the credit facility of approximately $92.5 million and working capital of $50.6 million (current ratio 7.96:1) provide substantial liquidity and flexibility.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Alico raised fiscal 2026 guidance to adjusted EBITDA of approximately $15 million (up from prior guidance of ~$14M) and now expects to end the year with about $48 million of cash and roughly $37 million of net debt (with only ~$2.5M remaining on the revolver); management said this liquidity should support operations for at least three additional fiscal years through 2029 without additional asset sales. The company highlighted quarter‑end strength: $55.6M cash (up $17.5M since fiscal year‑end), $29.8M net debt, ~$92.5M of available borrowings, $85.4M total debt, $50.6M working capital and a 7.96:1 current ratio (minimum liquidity requirement $5.8M). Management also noted Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $4.6M and adjusted EBITDA of $24.2M (EBITDA $23.7M) for the first nine months, and completion of $10M of share repurchases (245,399 shares, including 38,059 in Q3).Alico Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 17.07M | 44.07M | 46.64M | 39.85M | 91.95M | 108.56M |
| Gross Profit | -12.30M | -192.19M | -56.38M | 6.45M | -14.77M | 23.89M |
| EBITDA | 22.09M | -4.44M | 29.50M | 22.86M | 31.51M | 65.50M |
| Net Income | 1.53M | -147.33M | 6.97M | 1.83M | 12.46M | 34.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 198.66M | 201.53M | 398.72M | 428.35M | 409.25M | 433.22M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 55.58M | 38.13M | 3.15M | 1.06M | 865.00K | 886.00K |
| Total Debt | 2.75M | 85.55M | 92.12M | 128.70M | 110.88M | 125.31M |
| Total Liabilities | 93.83M | 93.53M | 142.42M | 177.98M | 160.39M | 183.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 104.83M | 103.03M | 251.16M | 244.99M | 243.74M | 244.72M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.55M | 14.62M | -48.37M | -22.91M | -14.21M | -5.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -383.00K | 20.13M | -30.50M | -6.25M | 6.52M | 16.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 27.64M | 24.14M | 68.18M | -4.12M | 22.47M | -3.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -13.74M | -8.78M | -37.98M | 13.20M | -29.01M | -32.04M |
Alico Technical Analysis
Positive
38.62
Price Trends
40.22
Negative
40.86
Negative
39.17
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
52.81
Neutral
53.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.13, below the 50-day MA of 40.22, and below the 200-day MA of 39.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALCO.
Alico Risk Analysis
Alico disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alico reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alico Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $302.05M | 12.86 | 7.56% | ― | -23.88% | 115.43% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
52 Neutral | $1.31B | 137.03 | 3.03% | 2.80% | 7.20% | -10.41% | |
49 Neutral | $250.40M | -6.09 | -24.52% | 2.30% | -25.01% | -1680.30% | |
49 Neutral | $342.18M | -125.69 | -0.70% | 3.81% | 0.76% | -105.51% | |
48 Neutral | $304.46M | 190.86 | 1.50% | 0.52% | -61.38% | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ALCO
Alico
40.08
7.25
22.10%
AGRO
Adecoagro SA
8.91
-0.01
-0.12%
LMNR
Limoneira Co
13.85
-1.62
-10.46%
VFF
Village Farms International
2.53
-0.37
-12.76%
AFRI
Forafric Global
10.62
2.83
36.33%
LND
BrasilAgro Cia Brasileira de Propriedades Agricolas
3.58
-0.03
-0.83%
Alico Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Alico Extends CEO Contract and Enhances Incentive Plan
Positive
Jul 18, 2026
Effective July 14, 2026, Alico, Inc. entered into a third amended and restated employment agreement with President and Chief Executive Officer John Kiernan, extending his term through September 30, 2030 and raising his annual base salary from $550...
Business Operations and Strategy
Alico Signs Long-Term Agricultural Lease with U.S. Sugar
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
On June 18, 2026, Alico, Inc. entered into an agricultural lease agreement with United States Sugar Corporation for about 3,280 acres of land in Hendry County, Florida, with the lease term running from July 1, 2026 to June 30, 2027. U.S. Sugar has...
DividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Alico Declares Third-Quarter 2026 Cash Dividend
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Alico, Inc.’s Board of Directors declared a third-quarter fiscal 2026 cash dividend of $0.05 per share on its outstanding common stock, setting a shareholder-of-record date of July 2, 2026. The dividend is scheduled to be p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.