Alico (ALCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $317.52M
• Dividend Yield: 0.55%
• Average Volume (3M): 29.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.37
• Revenue Growth: -5.52%
• EPS Growth: -2194.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 199
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): -0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 7,656,646
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 39,235
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 29,807
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.01
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.32
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -1.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -613.54
• 1Y Price Target: $42.00
• Price Target Upside: -0.02% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $44.00 ▲(4.74% Upside)

Alico's overall stock score reflects a mix of challenges and opportunities. The most significant factor is the weak financial performance, particularly in profitability and revenue growth. However, positive technical indicators and strategic advancements highlighted in the earnings call provide some optimism. The valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings, but the dividend yield offers a modest income stream. Corporate events like the dividend declaration further support shareholder value.

Positive Factors

Strategic transformation to diversified land company

Shifting from commodity citrus production to land-focused operations is a durable business-model change that reduces exposure to agriculture cyclicality. Land monetization and development provide higher-margin, asset-backed revenue streams and a clearer multi-year value-creation pathway.

Strong cash position and lower net debt

A strengthened balance sheet with meaningful cash and reduced net debt improves financial flexibility over coming years. This supports funding development projects, buffers operating volatility, and reduces refinancing risk, enhancing the company's ability to execute strategic initiatives.

Advancement of high-value real estate development pipeline

A sizeable development pipeline with multi-year present-value estimates offers a structural growth engine beyond farming. Successful execution can convert land assets into predictable, high-return cash flows and diversify revenue mix away from low-margin agricultural sales.

Negative Factors

Negative profitability and declining revenue

Sustained negative margins and falling revenue indicate persistent operational weakness. Over months, this undermines return on equity and limits retained earnings for reinvestment, making the company reliant on asset sales or external financing to fund growth and dividends.

Large net loss driven by noncash charges and impairments

Substantial noncash write-offs materially reduced equity and signal prior overstatement of asset returns. Even if noncash, these charges weaken credit metrics and may constrain future borrowings or covenants, raising execution risk for development plans over the medium term.

Reliance on land monetization and one-off transactions

Heavy reliance on land sales for cash generation is timing- and market-dependent. It replaces recurring agribusiness revenue with lumpy, nonrecurring proceeds, increasing execution and market-risk exposure and making sustainable operating cash flow less predictable.

Alico Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alico, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an agribusiness and land management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Alico Citrus, and Land Management and Other Operations. The Alico Citrus segment cultivates citrus trees to produce citrus for delivery to the processed and fresh citrus markets. The Land Management and Other Operations segment owns and manages land in Collier, Glades, and Hendry Counties; and leasing of land for recreational and grazing purposes, conservation, and mining activities. As of September 30, 2021, it had 83,000 acres of land situated in eight counties in Florida, which include the Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, and Polk. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Fort Myers, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Alico generates revenue primarily through the sale of citrus fruits, including fresh oranges for the juice market and other citrus products. Key revenue streams include sales to major juice processors and wholesalers. Additionally, Alico benefits from land leasing arrangements and sales of non-core agricultural assets. The company's financial performance is influenced by factors such as citrus prices, crop yields, and demand fluctuations in the juice market. Strategic partnerships with processors and distributors enhance its market reach and revenue potential.

Alico Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alico faces significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and revenue growth. While the balance sheet shows manageable leverage, the negative return on equity and profitability metrics are concerning. Cash flow improvements provide some optimism, but overall financial performance remains weak.

Income Statement

Alico's income statement reflects significant challenges, with negative gross and net profit margins in the TTM period, indicating operational inefficiencies and profitability issues. The revenue growth rate is negative, showing a decline in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, further highlighting profitability concerns.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM period, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is stable, but overall financial health is weakened by poor profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting efficient cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, indicating limited cash available after capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	44.07M	44.07M	46.64M	39.85M	91.95M	108.56M
Gross Profit	-183.57M	-186.83M	-56.38M	6.45M	-14.77M	23.89M
EBITDA	-454.00K	-4.44M	29.50M	22.86M	31.51M	29.56M
Net Income	-147.33M	-147.33M	6.97M	1.83M	12.46M	34.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	201.53M	201.53M	398.72M	428.35M	409.25M	433.22M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	38.13M	38.13M	3.15M	1.06M	865.00K	886.00K
Total Debt	2.75M	2.75M	92.12M	128.70M	110.88M	125.31M
Total Liabilities	93.53M	93.53M	142.42M	177.98M	160.39M	185.61M
Stockholders Equity	103.03M	103.03M	251.16M	244.99M	243.74M	242.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	14.62M	14.62M	-48.37M	-22.91M	-14.34M	-24.73M
Operating Cash Flow	20.13M	20.13M	-30.50M	-6.25M	6.52M	16.50M
Investing Cash Flow	24.14M	24.14M	68.18M	-4.12M	22.47M	-3.27M
Financing Cash Flow	-8.78M	-8.78M	-37.98M	13.20M	-29.01M	-32.04M

Alico Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 42.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.44, above the 50-day MA of 37.51, and above the 200-day MA of 33.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALCO.

Alico Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VFF	75 Outperform	$377.74M	17.62	1.88%	―	-12.68%	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
ALCO	58 Neutral	$317.52M	-2.18	-83.19%	0.55%	-5.52%	-2194.72%
AGRO	52 Neutral	$1.23B	37.26	1.69%	4.40%	-7.37%	-84.53%
LMNR	48 Neutral	$262.55M	-15.44	-4.88%	1.99%	-14.97%	-278.36%
LND	48 Neutral	$401.79M	-89.45	-1.12%	3.39%	-3.22%	-108.24%

Alico Corporate Events

Alico Declares First-Quarter Fiscal 2026 Cash Dividend

On December 19, 2025, Alico, Inc.’s board of directors declared a first-quarter fiscal 2026 cash dividend of $0.05 per share on its outstanding common stock, payable on January 16, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 2, 2026. The move signals the company’s continued return of capital to shareholders and provides clarity on near-term income for investors holding Alico shares over the record date.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALCO) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alico stock, see the ALCO Stock Forecast page.