Smithfield Foods (SFD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.40B
• Dividend Yield: 4.44%
• Average Volume (3M): 683.69K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 36,500
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): 0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 393,112,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 688,683
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 683,689
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.67
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.07
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.98
• 1Y Price Target: $29.13
• Price Target Upside: 21.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $27.00 ▲(12.97% Upside)

The score is driven by improving profitability/cash flow and a solid balance sheet, supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and strong dividend). Technicals are also favorable with price above key moving averages and positive momentum. Offsetting factors include declining historical revenue and ongoing segment/input-cost pressures noted on the earnings call, while the Nathan’s deal adds a positive (but closing-dependent) catalyst.

Positive Factors

Vertical Integration

Owning hog production through processing secures supply and mitigates input volatility. That integration enables better cost control, steadier margins and more predictable production planning, supporting durable margin resilience and operational leverage over coming quarters.

Improved Cash Generation

Higher gross and net margins alongside operating cash flow exceeding reported earnings indicate stronger cash conversion. Reliable cash flow funds dividends, capex and acquisitions, reducing reliance on external financing and supporting strategic flexibility over the medium term.

Solid Balance Sheet

Manageable leverage and a strong equity base provide financial flexibility to absorb shocks, invest in efficiency or pursue bolt-on deals funded with cash. Improved ROE shows capital is being used more effectively, supporting sustainable capital allocation decisions.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Trend

A multi-year top-line contraction reduces scale benefits and can limit long-term margin expansion. Sustained revenue decline pressures pricing power and investment capacity; reversing this trend is essential for durable profit growth absent material portfolio changes.

Persistent Input Cost Pressure

Significant increases in key raw materials materially compress packaged-meats margins. If elevated input costs persist, price pass-through and mix shifts may be insufficient to fully restore margins, making profitability vulnerable despite operational improvements.

Acquisition Execution & Regulatory Risk

The Nathan’s acquisition consolidates an important branded asset but requires HSR and CFIUS clearances plus shareholder approvals. Regulatory delays, conditions or challenges could postpone synergies, increase integration costs and distract management from core operations.

Smithfield Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Smithfield Foods, Inc. manufactures and markets packaged meats and fresh pork in the United States and internationally. Its Packaged Meats segment processes fresh meat into various packaged meats products, including bacon, sausage, hot dogs, deli and lunch meats, dry sausage products, ham products, ready-to-eat products, and prepared foods, such as pre-cooked entrees, bacon, and sausage to retail and foodservice customers in the United States. This segment markets its packaged meats products under the Smithfield, Eckrich, Nathan's Famous, Farmland, Armour, Farmer John, Kretschmar, Krakus, John Morrell, Cook's, Gwaltney, Carando, Margherita, Curly's, and Smithfield Culinary brands, as well as under private labels. The company's Fresh Pork segment process live hogs into a variety of primal, sub-primal, and offal products, such as bellies, butts, hams, loins, picnics, and ribs. This segment sells its fresh pork products to retail, foodservice and industrial customers, as well as to export markets, including China, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Canada. Its Hog Production segment produces and raises its hogs on various company-owned farms and farms that are owned and operated by third-party contract farmers in the United States and Mexico. The Hog Production segment also sells grains to external customers. The company's bioscience operations use raw materials from hogs that process to manufacture heparin products, including an active pharmaceutical ingredient that mitigates the risk of blood clots. The company was founded in 1936 and is based in Smithfield, Virginia. Smithfield Foods, Inc. is a subsidiary of SFDS UK Holdings Limited.

How the Company Makes Money

Smithfield Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of pork and processed meat products. The company's revenue model is built on multiple key streams, including fresh pork sales, packaged meats, and value-added products. Fresh pork is typically sold to wholesalers and retailers, while packaged meats are marketed directly to consumers and food service providers. Additionally, the company engages in export activities, selling its products to international markets. Smithfield benefits from significant partnerships with major grocery chains and restaurants, which provide consistent demand for its products. The company also invests in supply chain efficiencies and sustainability practices to enhance profitability. Fluctuations in pork prices, consumer demand trends, and operational efficiencies are critical factors influencing its earnings.

Smithfield Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and cash generation improved (gross margin 13.42%, net margin 6.74%, operating cash flow to net income 1.19) with manageable leverage (debt-to-equity 0.40). The main offset is the multi-year revenue decline (from $16.2B in 2022 to $14.14B in 2024).

Income Statement

Smithfield Foods demonstrated a recovery in profitability over the past year, with an impressive increase in gross profit and EBIT margins from a challenging previous year. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 13.42%. However, revenue has seen a decline from $16.2 billion in 2022 to $14.14 billion in 2024, indicating a negative growth trend. The net profit margin also improved to 6.74%, highlighting better cost management. Overall, the company is showing stabilization after a turbulent year, but declining revenue is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Smithfield Foods is solid with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40, indicating manageable leverage levels. The equity ratio stands at 52.78%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets. Return on equity (ROE) improved to 16.33%, reflecting enhanced profitability and efficient use of equity. The company's financial stability is evident, but the reduction in total assets over the years is noteworthy.

Cash Flow

Smithfield Foods shows robust cash flow metrics with an improvement in free cash flow and operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.19, indicating healthy cash generation relative to reported earnings. Free cash flow has grown, but the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.83 suggests room for improvement in cash conversion. Overall, cash flow management appears strong, but potential for better efficiency exists.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.26B	14.14B	14.64B	16.20B
Gross Profit	2.02B	1.90B	889.00M	1.50B
EBITDA	1.58B	1.47B	374.00M	1.57B
Net Income	864.00M	953.00M	17.00M	870.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.52B	11.05B	13.32B	13.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	773.00M	943.00M	687.00M	547.00M
Total Debt	2.39B	2.36B	2.46B	2.47B
Total Liabilities	4.80B	5.00B	5.83B	6.28B
Stockholders Equity	6.47B	5.83B	7.24B	7.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	472.00M	787.00M	633.00M	179.00M
Operating Cash Flow	803.00M	1.14B	1.03B	517.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-232.00M	-469.00M	-322.00M	193.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-95.00M	-464.00M	-533.00M	-477.00M

Smithfield Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 23.90
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SFD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 23.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.92, above the 50-day MA of 22.79, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SFD.

Smithfield Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SFD	77 Outperform	$9.40B	10.84	14.44%	4.44%	―	―
CALM	73 Outperform	$3.98B	3.53	48.69%	10.53%	65.80%	197.95%
FDP	71 Outperform	$1.89B	24.20	3.95%	3.34%	1.11%	414.23%
TSN	69 Neutral	$22.61B	47.96	2.60%	3.48%	2.12%	-40.75%
BG	66 Neutral	$22.02B	12.23	10.24%	3.14%	10.29%	17.32%
ADM	64 Neutral	$32.35B	27.39	5.35%	3.55%	-4.31%	-29.96%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%

Smithfield Foods Corporate Events

Smithfield Foods to Acquire Nathan’s Famous in Cash Deal

On January 20, 2026, Smithfield Foods agreed to acquire Nathan’s Famous in an all-cash merger valued at about $450 million, paying $102 per share and taking the hot dog brand private, with Nathan’s becoming a wholly owned subsidiary after shareholder and regulatory approvals. The deal, which will be funded with Smithfield’s cash on hand and is expected to close in the first half of 2026, consolidates Smithfield’s long-standing licensing relationship with Nathan’s into full ownership, securing perpetual rights to the iconic all-beef hot dog brand, immediately boosting Smithfield’s earnings and strengthening its higher-margin packaged meats business by adding scale, anticipated cost synergies of roughly $9 million annually, and tighter control over both retail and foodservice distribution; a voting agreement already commits roughly 29.9% of Nathan’s shares to support the transaction, while customary breakup fees and regulatory conditions, including antitrust and CFIUS clearance, frame the risks and protections for both companies and their shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SFD) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Smithfield Foods stock, see the SFD Stock Forecast page.