Smithfield Foods (SFD)
NASDAQ:SFD
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Smithfield Foods
(NASDAQ:SFD)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$33.00
â–²(13.79% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/28/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance with moderate leverage and solid free cash flow, plus an attractive valuation (low P/E and strong dividend yield). Technicals add support via a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while the earnings call is net positive on reaffirmed guidance and strong Q1 execution, tempered by input-cost inflation and near-term fresh pork softness.
Positive Factors
Packaged meats market share & scale
Smithfield's branded packaged meats show persistent unit and distribution gains and healthy margins, reflecting durable consumer demand, broad retail/foodservice reach and scale in value‑added products. This structural strength supports higher-margin revenue and resilience versus commodity pork cycles.
Negative Factors
Earnings and cash‑flow volatility
Historic swings (near‑zero net income in 2023, variable gross margins) and uneven cash conversion reduce predictability of profitability and FCF. For a capital‑intensive, cyclical protein business this raises execution and capital‑allocation risk across planning horizons.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Packaged meats market share & scale
Smithfield's branded packaged meats show persistent unit and distribution gains and healthy margins, reflecting durable consumer demand, broad retail/foodservice reach and scale in value‑added products. This structural strength supports higher-margin revenue and resilience versus commodity pork cycles.
Read all positive factors
Smithfield Foods (SFD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.40B
Dividend Yield4.44%
Average Volume (3M)1.98M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.9
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth8.00%
EPS Growth-1.43%
CountryUS
Employees36,500
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.64
Shares Outstanding393,477,260
10 Day Avg. Volume1,759,044
30 Day Avg. Volume1,978,554
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.57
P/FCF Ratio12.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$32.00Price Target Upside10.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)2.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.68B
Smithfield Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Smithfield Foods, Inc. manufactures and markets packaged meats and fresh pork in the United States and internationally. Its Packaged Meats segment processes fresh meat into various packaged meats products, including bacon, sausage, hot dogs, deli ...
How the Company Makes Money
Smithfield makes money primarily by selling pork and pork-based packaged foods through multiple channels (retail, foodservice, and industrial/ingredient customers). A core revenue stream is the sale of fresh pork cuts and primal/trim products prod...
Smithfield Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a net positive performance: record quarterly adjusted operating profit, EPS growth, broad unit and market-share gains in packaged meats, improved hog production profitability, strong liquidity and low leverage, and active cost-savings/efficiency programs. Offsetting items include elevated input and logistics inflation (diesel, resin, beef/poultry costs), modest margin pressure in packaged meats from seasonal mix, near-term fresh pork volume/export headwinds, and a delayed M&A timeline. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and emphasized multiple levers (pricing, mix, productivity, hedging, procurement) to mitigate inflationary risks and navigate geopolitical uncertainty.Positive Updates
Record adjusted operating profit and margin expansion
Reported record Q1 adjusted operating profit of $339 million, up 4% year-over-year, with adjusted operating profit margin of 8.9%, a 30 basis point expansion from 8.6% in Q1 2025.
Negative Updates
Input cost inflation and supply-chain pressure
Noted higher raw material and input inflation (raw material costs cited as $94 million higher YoY in Q1), with freight, diesel and resin-based packaging costs pressured by geopolitical volatility (Middle East conflict).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record adjusted operating profit and margin expansion
Reported record Q1 adjusted operating profit of $339 million, up 4% year-over-year, with adjusted operating profit margin of 8.9%, a 30 basis point expansion from 8.6% in Q1 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed the March 24 fiscal 2026 outlook — reiterating a full‑year adjusted operating profit target of roughly $1.1–$1.2 billion — and said strong execution plus multiple levers (pricing, mix, disciplined spending, productivity, hedging and procurement) will help mitigate near‑term inflation in freight, packaging and energy. They pointed to a strong Q1 start (adjusted operating profit $339M; adjusted operating profit margin 8.9%; adjusted net income $251M; adjusted diluted EPS $0.64; consolidated sales $3.8B, up 1% or +5% ex a $155M one‑time JV sale), healthy liquidity ($3.7B, including $1.4B cash) and low leverage (net debt/adj. EBITDA 0.4x) as the basis for the reaffirmation. Management expects packaged meats to be broadly similar in Q2 to Q1 (Q1 packaged meats: $275M op profit; 12.8% margin; $2.1B sales; volume +3.5% / price +2.6%), anticipates seasonally softer fresh pork profitability in Q2/Q3 (Q1 fresh pork: $78M op profit; 3.9% margin; $2.0B sales; volume -2.6% / price +1.5%), and sees hog production strengthening in Q2 (Q1 hog production profit $4M; sales $769M), while maintaining capex discipline ($88M in Q1; >50% of planned 2026 capex tied to growth) and shareholder returns (quarterly dividend $0.3125; ~$1.25 expected annual).Smithfield Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 15.56B | 15.53B | 14.14B | 14.64B | 16.20B |
| Gross Profit | 2.09B | 2.09B | 1.90B | 889.00M | 1.50B |
| EBITDA | 1.57B | 1.64B | 1.47B | 374.00M | 1.57B |
| Net Income | 1.01B | 987.00M | 953.00M | 17.00M | 870.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.00B | 12.18B | 11.05B | 13.32B | 13.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.39B | 1.54B | 943.00M | 687.00M | 547.00M |
| Total Debt | 2.60B | 2.40B | 2.36B | 2.46B | 2.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.14B | 5.11B | 5.00B | 5.83B | 6.28B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.86B | 6.80B | 5.83B | 7.24B | 7.37B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 813.00M | 718.00M | 787.00M | 633.00M | 179.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.16B | 1.06B | 1.14B | 1.03B | 517.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -304.00M | -309.00M | -469.00M | -322.00M | 193.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -405.00M | -164.00M | -464.00M | -533.00M | -477.00M |
Smithfield Foods Technical Analysis
Neutral
29.00
Price Trends
22.79
Negative
23.57
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.21
Negative
45.83
Neutral
33.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SFD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.92, above the 50-day MA of 22.79, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SFD.
Smithfield Foods Risk Analysis
Smithfield Foods disclosed 13 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Smithfield Foods reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Smithfield Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $10.40B | 10.87 | 15.25% | 4.44% | 8.00% | -1.43% | |
78 Outperform | $3.56B | 20.41 | 26.11% | 10.53% | -8.85% | -29.16% | |
70 Outperform | $1.97B | 18.92 | 4.53% | 3.34% | 1.38% | -36.13% | |
66 Neutral | $35.79B | 25.81 | 4.80% | 3.55% | -6.04% | -38.43% | |
63 Neutral | $24.48B | 18.12 | 5.98% | 3.14% | 32.41% | -33.06% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $21.94B | 59.42 | 1.10% | 3.48% | 2.83% | -80.89% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
SFD
Smithfield Foods
26.42
5.16
24.24%
ADM
Archer Daniels Midland
74.27
28.15
61.03%
BG
Bunge Global
126.31
49.95
65.41%
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods
75.07
-13.65
-15.38%
FDP
Fresh Del Monte Produce
41.49
8.57
26.01%
TSN
Tyson Foods
63.58
4.43
7.49%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.