Smithfield Foods (SFD)
NASDAQ:SFD
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Smithfield Foods
(NASDAQ:SFD)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$32.00
▲(9.74% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven by strong financial recovery and guidance-supported profitability, combined with attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield). Technicals are supportive but not strongly bullish due to mixed momentum indicators, which tempers the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Packaged Meats scale & margin
Smithfield's Packaged Meats unit shows durable competitive advantage: sustained >$1B operating profit, mid‑teens margins, and branded/channel breadth. This segment's scale and pricing power supports margin resilience and predictable cash flows, reducing company-level cyclicality over multi-year horizons.
Negative Factors
Raw material cost exposure
Large, persistent input cost inflation directly compresses industry spreads and can outpace pricing actions. Because pork and feed costs are cyclical and externally driven, sustained raw material pressure can erode margins and cash conversion for several quarters, limiting durable profitability unless mitigated by mix or productivity gains.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Packaged Meats scale & margin
Smithfield's Packaged Meats unit shows durable competitive advantage: sustained >$1B operating profit, mid‑teens margins, and branded/channel breadth. This segment's scale and pricing power supports margin resilience and predictable cash flows, reducing company-level cyclicality over multi-year horizons.
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Smithfield Foods (SFD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.47B
Dividend Yield4.44%
Average Volume (3M)1.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees36,500
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.83
Shares Outstanding393,477,260
10 Day Avg. Volume3,061,560
30 Day Avg. Volume1,714,027
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.57
P/FCF Ratio12.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.90Price Target Upside5.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.71B
Smithfield Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Smithfield Foods, Inc. manufactures and markets packaged meats and fresh pork in the United States and internationally. Its Packaged Meats segment processes fresh meat into various packaged meats products, including bacon, sausage, hot dogs, deli ...
How the Company Makes Money
Smithfield makes money primarily by selling pork and meat products through multiple channels. A major revenue stream is the sale of fresh pork (primal and subprimal cuts and other fresh products) to retailers, foodservice distributors, and further...
Smithfield Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive performance story: record adjusted operating profit, margin expansion, strong cash generation, a robust balance sheet, and clear growth initiatives (acquisition of Nathan's and a $1.3B Sioux Falls investment). Management acknowledged and has action plans for headwinds — elevated raw material costs, compressed industry spreads, cautious consumer spending and geopolitical/disease risks — but reported that operational improvements, mix shift to higher-margin products, and vertical integration meaningfully mitigated these impacts. Guidance for 2026 anticipates continued margin expansion and modest sales growth while preserving financial flexibility.Positive Updates
Record Company Profitability and Margin Expansion
Consolidated adjusted operating profit increased 30% to $1.3 billion in FY2025 with adjusted operating profit margin expanding 140 basis points to 8.6% (from 7.2% in 2024). Record Q4 adjusted operating profit of $402 million and record full-year adjusted net income of $1.0 billion.
Negative Updates
Elevated Raw Material Costs
FY2025 raw material input cost increases totaled approximately $525 million. Key raw material price increases included bellies up ~19%, trim up roughly 19%–35% (range cited), and ham up ~9%, pressuring margins despite mitigations.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Company Profitability and Margin Expansion
Consolidated adjusted operating profit increased 30% to $1.3 billion in FY2025 with adjusted operating profit margin expanding 140 basis points to 8.6% (from 7.2% in 2024). Record Q4 adjusted operating profit of $402 million and record full-year adjusted net income of $1.0 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2026 Smithfield guided total company sales to rise low single digits and forecast segment adjusted operating profit of $1.1–$1.2 billion for Packaged Meats, $200–$260 million for Fresh Pork and $150–$200 million for Hog Production, implying consolidated adjusted operating profit of $1.325–$1.475 billion (guidance reflects a 53‑week year and excludes the Nathan’s acquisition and the Sioux Falls investment); targeted capital expenditures are $350–$450 million for 2026 with up to $1.3 billion planned for the Sioux Falls facility over the next three years (groundbreaking targeted H1‑2027; operations by end‑2028); the company expects continued margin expansion driven by mix, volume, innovation, automation and cost savings, assumes USDA pork production up ~2.5% and slightly lower raw material costs versus 2025, plans to pay $1.25 per share in dividends in 2026 (quarterly dividend announced at $0.3125), and cited strong balance sheet support (year‑end 2025 net debt/adjusted EBITDA 0.3x and liquidity ~$3.8 billion).Smithfield Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 15.53B | 14.14B | 14.64B | 16.20B |
| Gross Profit | 2.35B | 1.90B | 889.00M | 1.50B |
| EBITDA | 1.64B | 1.47B | 374.00M | 1.57B |
| Net Income | 987.00M | 953.00M | 17.00M | 870.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 12.18B | 11.05B | 13.32B | 13.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.54B | 943.00M | 687.00M | 547.00M |
| Total Debt | 2.40B | 2.36B | 2.46B | 2.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.11B | 5.00B | 5.83B | 6.28B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.80B | 5.83B | 7.24B | 7.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 718.00M | 787.00M | 633.00M | 179.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.06B | 1.14B | 1.03B | 517.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -309.00M | -469.00M | -322.00M | 193.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -164.00M | -464.00M | -533.00M | -477.00M |
Smithfield Foods Technical Analysis
Neutral
29.16
Price Trends
22.79
Negative
23.57
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.21
Negative
45.83
Neutral
33.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SFD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 29.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.92, above the 50-day MA of 22.79, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SFD.
Smithfield Foods Risk Analysis
Smithfield Foods disclosed 13 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Smithfield Foods reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Smithfield Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.65B | 20.41 | 26.11% | 10.53% | 65.80% | 197.95% | |
75 Outperform | $11.47B | 8.98 | 15.31% | 4.44% | ― | ― | |
72 Outperform | $2.00B | 18.92 | 4.53% | 3.34% | 1.11% | 414.23% | |
66 Neutral | $34.51B | 25.81 | 4.80% | 3.55% | -4.31% | -29.96% | |
65 Neutral | $24.60B | 18.12 | 5.98% | 3.14% | 10.29% | 17.32% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $22.31B | 59.42 | 1.10% | 3.48% | 2.12% | -40.75% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
SFD
Smithfield Foods
29.16
10.32
54.76%
ADM
Archer Daniels Midland
71.72
28.85
67.30%
BG
Bunge Global
127.15
55.09
76.44%
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods
77.07
-8.12
-9.53%
FDP
Fresh Del Monte Produce
42.16
12.57
42.46%
TSN
Tyson Foods
64.65
6.93
12.01%
Smithfield Foods Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Smithfield Foods to Acquire Nathan’s Famous in Cash Deal
Positive
Jan 21, 2026
On January 20, 2026, Smithfield Foods agreed to acquire Nathan’s Famous in an all-cash merger valued at about $450 million, paying $102 per share and taking the hot dog brand private, with Nathan’s becoming a wholly owned subsidiary af...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.