Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
NYSE:ADM
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Archer Daniels Midland
(NYSE:ADM)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$76.00
▲(8.99% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/12/26
ADM scores as moderately attractive: strong 2025 cash generation and improved leverage provide resilience, and the chart trend is positive. The score is held back by the sharp multi-year drop in earnings/margins and a relatively high P/E for a business facing ongoing segment headwinds and policy-driven uncertainty, despite management guiding to EPS improvement in 2026 and pursuing cost savings.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Material free cash flow in 2025 provides durable internal funding for operations, capex and shareholder returns. Strong cash conversion in a cyclical agribusiness supports resilience through commodity cycles, enabling debt paydown and strategic investments without relying on external financing.
Negative Factors
Material earnings and margin deterioration
Multi-year decline in net income and compressed margins indicate structural pressure on profitability. Lower returns reduce internal ability to fund growth and weaken ROE, meaning management must restore margins or face prolonged lower value creation despite healthy cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Material free cash flow in 2025 provides durable internal funding for operations, capex and shareholder returns. Strong cash conversion in a cyclical agribusiness supports resilience through commodity cycles, enabling debt paydown and strategic investments without relying on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$33.60B
Dividend Yield3.55%
Average Volume (3M)4.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.8
Beta (1Y)0.32
Revenue Growth-4.31%
EPS Growth-29.96%
CountryUS
Employees42,383
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.87
Shares Outstanding481,201,840
10 Day Avg. Volume3,316,327
30 Day Avg. Volume4,114,897
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.66
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio6.62
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.22
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$66.80Price Target Upside-4.20% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$86.19B
Archer Daniels Midland Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities, products, and ingredients in the United States, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and internationally...
How the Company Makes Money
ADM makes money primarily by buying crops and other agricultural inputs, processing them into higher-value products, and selling those products to food manufacturers, animal feed producers, industrial customers, and fuel markets, while also earnin...
Archer Daniels Midland Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Archer Daniels Midland Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Dec 31, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: management highlighted meaningful operational achievements (inventory reduction, cost-savings projects, JV launch, decarbonization progress), strong pockets of upside in ethanol/VCP and nutrition recovery, disciplined capital returns and a constructive multi-year growth strategy. Offsetting these positives were material declines in crushing and AS&O profits, continuing softness in starches and sweeteners, increased corporate charges, and dependence on external policy timing (RVO/RINs) for a meaningful near-term recovery. Given the comparable weight of strategic/operational positives and sizable near-term financial headwinds and uncertainty, the overall tone is cautious but constructive.Positive Updates
Earnings and Profitability Metrics
Fourth quarter adjusted EPS of $0.87 and full-year adjusted EPS of $3.43. Total segment operating profit was $821 million for Q4 and $3.2 billion for the full year. Trailing fourth quarter adjusted ROIC was 6.3%.
Negative Updates
AS & O Segment Weakness
AS & O segment operating profit for Q4 was $444 million, down 31% year-over-year; full-year AS & O operating profit was $1.6 billion, down 34% versus 2024, driven by lower export activity and negative timing impacts.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Earnings and Profitability Metrics
Fourth quarter adjusted EPS of $0.87 and full-year adjusted EPS of $3.43. Total segment operating profit was $821 million for Q4 and $3.2 billion for the full year. Trailing fourth quarter adjusted ROIC was 6.3%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ADM's 2026 guidance calls for adjusted EPS of $3.60–$4.25 (up from $3.43 in 2025), assumes Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit roughly flat with crush margins similar to 2025, and expects continued nutrition growth; management reiterated it will invest $1.3–$1.5 billion of capex in 2026, target an aggregate $500–$750 million of cost savings over 3–5 years, and carry an expected effective tax rate of 18–20%, while maintaining disciplined capital allocation (leverage ~2x, 1.9x at 12/31/2025); 2025 context included total segment operating profit of $3.2 billion, Q4 segment OP $821 million, trailing Q4 adjusted ROIC of 6.3%, cash flow from operations before working capital of ~$2.7 billion, a $1.5 billion inventory-reduction cash benefit, and $987 million returned to shareholders in dividends (376th consecutive quarterly dividend).Archer Daniels Midland Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 80.27B | 85.53B | 93.94B | 101.56B | 85.25B |
| Gross Profit | 5.03B | 5.78B | 7.51B | 7.57B | 5.99B |
| EBITDA | 3.05B | 4.10B | 6.00B | 6.66B | 4.57B |
| Net Income | 1.08B | 1.80B | 3.48B | 4.34B | 2.71B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 34.66B | 53.27B | 54.63B | 59.77B | 56.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.05B | 857.00M | 1.37B | 1.04B | 943.00M |
| Total Debt | 8.41B | 11.54B | 9.60B | 10.29B | 10.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.63B | 30.84B | 30.17B | 35.16B | 33.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 22.73B | 22.17B | 24.13B | 24.28B | 22.48B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.20B | 1.23B | 2.97B | 2.16B | 5.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.45B | 2.79B | 4.46B | 3.48B | 6.59B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.02B | -2.70B | -1.50B | -1.40B | -2.67B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.89B | -1.53B | -4.60B | -2.50B | -1.12B |
Archer Daniels Midland Technical Analysis
Positive
69.73
Price Trends
69.26
Positive
64.77
Positive
61.30
Positive
Market Momentum
0.70
Positive
46.65
Neutral
45.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 69.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.21, above the 50-day MA of 69.26, and above the 200-day MA of 61.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADM.
Archer Daniels Midland Risk Analysis
Archer Daniels Midland disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Archer Daniels Midland reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
The Company is subject to various technical, legal, and opportunistic-related risks relating to use of artificial intelligence and other emerging digital technologies. Q4, 2025
2.
The Company is subject to various evolving regulations related to ESG matters which impacts the Company's business and strategies, and could adversely affect its reputation, business and results of operations. Q4, 2025
3.
The Company is involved in a number of legal proceedings that may result in adverse outcomes. Q4, 2025
Archer Daniels Midland Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.59B | 20.41 | 26.11% | 10.53% | 65.80% | 197.95% | |
75 Outperform | $11.50B | 8.98 | 15.31% | 4.44% | ― | ― | |
72 Outperform | $2.03B | 18.92 | 4.53% | 3.34% | 1.11% | 414.23% | |
66 Neutral | $33.60B | 25.81 | 4.80% | 3.55% | -4.31% | -29.96% | |
65 Neutral | $23.98B | 18.12 | 5.98% | 3.14% | 10.29% | 17.32% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $22.65B | 59.42 | 1.10% | 3.48% | 2.12% | -40.75% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ADM
Archer Daniels Midland
69.73
25.45
57.48%
BG
Bunge Global
123.92
49.91
67.43%
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods
75.83
-15.25
-16.75%
FDP
Fresh Del Monte Produce
41.94
11.97
39.93%
TSN
Tyson Foods
65.64
7.17
12.26%
SFD
Smithfield Foods
29.22
10.31
54.53%
Archer Daniels Midland Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
ADM Expands Board, Appoints Michael McMurray Director
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 9, 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland increased its board size from 12 to 13 directors and elected former LyondellBasell executive vice president and CFO Michael C. McMurray as an independent director, effective immediately. He will serve until...
Financial DisclosuresLegal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
ADM Settles SEC Case and DOJ Closes Probe
Neutral
Jan 28, 2026
On January 27, 2026, ADM announced it had reached a settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over its prior reporting of intersegment sales, agreeing to pay a $40 million civil penalty without admitting or denying wrongdoing, wh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.