Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $32.73B
• Dividend Yield: 3.55%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.69M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 30.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.40
• Revenue Growth: -4.31%
• EPS Growth: -29.96%
• Country: US
• Employees: 42,383
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): 0.87
• Shares Outstanding: 481,201,840
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,054,795
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,685,281
• PEG Ratio: -0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.62
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.50
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.55
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.29
• 1Y Price Target: $60.50
• Price Target Upside: -10.30% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.02
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $85.38B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $72.00 ▲(6.75% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/05/26

ADM scores 64 primarily due to compressed profitability versus prior peaks, offset by improving leverage and stronger recent free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is a notable drag given the high P/E despite a ~3% dividend. The latest call supports a modest improvement outlook for 2026, but policy-dependent uncertainty and recent segment profit declines keep the score in the mid-range.

Positive Factors

Improving Balance Sheet / Lower Leverage

ADM's meaningful debt reduction and lower leverage improve financial flexibility and resilience across cycles. A stronger balance sheet supports sustained dividend payments, targeted buybacks or opportunistic M&A, and funds capex without forcing distress-driven asset sales, enhancing long-term stability.

Rebounded Free Cash Flow

A sizeable FCF recovery gives ADM durable funding for capex, debt paydown and shareholder returns while absorbing cyclicality. Consistent cash conversion (FCF relative to net income) provides a buffer against earnings volatility and underpins multi-year investments in growth and decarbonization initiatives.

Diversified business & strategic growth platforms

ADM's diversified mix—agricultural processing, nutrition, biofuels and new platforms—reduces single-market dependency. Investments (JV with Altek, decarbonization pipeline, nutrition focus) create avenues for higher-margin growth and structural differentiation that should support earnings durability over several years.

Negative Factors

Prolonged Revenue and Margin Weakness

Three years of revenue decline and sharply compressed margins signal structural pressure on core commodity and processing businesses. Persistently lower returns (ROE down materially) can constrain reinvestment and value creation, making recovery dependent on sustained market improvements or successful structural shifts.

Severe Crushing Profit Decline

Crushing is a core, capital-intensive activity; such a steep profit drop undermines a key earnings pillar. If weak crush margins persist due to commodity prices or structural demand shifts, ADM may face sustained earnings volatility and underutilized capacity, limiting medium-term margin recovery.

Policy-Dependent Uncertainty (Biofuels/RINs)

A meaningful portion of ADM's biofuels and crush upside hinges on regulatory timing and RIN markets. Reliance on policy outcomes introduces structural forecasting risk and can delay or mute expected margin improvement, complicating capital allocation and multi-year planning for core segments.

Archer Daniels Midland Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities, products, and ingredients in the United States, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. It procures, stores, cleans, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. The company also engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and structured trade finance activities. In addition, it offers vegetable oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; crude vegetable oils, salad oils, margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, the company provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, and natural health and nutrition products, including probiotics, prebiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and foods. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage services; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouses; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

ADM generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the processing of agricultural commodities and the sale of derived products. Key revenue streams include the sale of oilseeds and their byproducts, corn processing (which includes sweeteners, starches, and ethanol), and milling operations for flour and related products. The company also earns income from its global trading operations and logistics services, which facilitate the movement of agricultural products. Significant partnerships with farmers, food manufacturers, and energy companies enhance ADM's supply chain efficiency and market reach. Additionally, ADM's investments in biotechnology and sustainability initiatives contribute to its earnings by meeting growing consumer demand for healthier and more sustainable food options.

Archer Daniels Midland Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: earnings and margins have weakened materially since 2022 with three years of revenue decline (Income Statement Score 56), but leverage is improving (Balance Sheet Score 67) and 2025 cash generation rebounded strongly with solid free cash flow (Cash Flow Score 72), providing resilience despite the downcycle.

Income Statement

Profitability has weakened materially over the last three annual periods: net income fell from $4.34B (2022) to $1.08B (2025) and margins compressed (net margin ~4.3% in 2022 vs. ~1.3% in 2025). Revenue has also declined for three straight years (2023–2025), following strong growth in 2021–2022. The business remains profitable, but the trajectory shows meaningful cyclical/price-pressure headwinds and less earnings stability versus prior peaks.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and improving: total debt declined to $8.41B in 2025 from $11.54B in 2024, and debt relative to equity improved to ~0.37 in 2025 (from ~0.52 in 2024). Equity is steady around $22–24B, supporting balance-sheet resilience. The main watch-out is reduced profitability translating into a lower return on equity (~4.7% in 2025 vs. ~14–18% in 2022–2023), which can limit value creation if the downcycle persists.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened in 2025 with operating cash flow of $5.45B and free cash flow of $4.20B, a sharp improvement versus 2024 ($2.79B and $1.23B, respectively). Free cash flow remains solid relative to earnings in most years (e.g., ~0.77x of net income in 2025), supporting flexibility for debt reduction and shareholder returns. Weaknesses include volatility across the cycle (negative operating and free cash flow in 2020) and a free-cash-flow decline in 2025 versus 2024 (about -10.6%).

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	80.27B	85.53B	93.94B	101.56B	85.25B
Gross Profit	5.03B	5.78B	7.51B	7.57B	5.99B
EBITDA	3.05B	4.10B	6.00B	6.66B	4.57B
Net Income	1.08B	1.80B	3.48B	4.34B	2.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	34.66B	53.27B	54.63B	59.77B	56.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.05B	857.00M	1.37B	1.04B	943.00M
Total Debt	8.41B	11.54B	9.60B	10.29B	10.58B
Total Liabilities	11.63B	30.84B	30.17B	35.16B	33.37B
Stockholders Equity	22.73B	22.17B	24.13B	24.28B	22.48B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.20B	1.23B	2.97B	2.16B	5.43B
Operating Cash Flow	5.45B	2.79B	4.46B	3.48B	6.59B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.02B	-2.70B	-1.50B	-1.40B	-2.67B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.89B	-1.53B	-4.60B	-2.50B	-1.12B

Archer Daniels Midland Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 67.45
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.49, above the 50-day MA of 63.62, and above the 200-day MA of 57.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADM.

Archer Daniels Midland Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SFD	77 Outperform	$9.98B	11.52	14.44%	4.44%	―	―
CALM	73 Outperform	$4.04B	3.59	48.69%	10.53%	65.80%	197.95%
FDP	70 Outperform	$2.01B	22.56	4.53%	3.34%	1.11%	414.23%
ADM	64 Neutral	$32.73B	30.54	4.80%	3.55%	-4.31%	-29.96%
BG	64 Neutral	$23.71B	24.90	6.34%	3.14%	10.29%	17.32%
TSN	63 Neutral	$21.88B	110.91	1.10%	3.48%	2.12%	-40.75%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%

Archer Daniels Midland Corporate Events

ADM Settles SEC Case and DOJ Closes Probe

On January 27, 2026, ADM announced it had reached a settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over its prior reporting of intersegment sales, agreeing to pay a $40 million civil penalty without admitting or denying wrongdoing, while stating the payment is not expected to materially affect its financial position. The Department of Justice has closed its related investigation with no further action, ending federal probes into ADM’s segment reporting practices; the company highlighted that earlier identified errors were limited to segment-level reporting with no impact on consolidated financial statements, and noted it has since restated relevant filings and made significant changes to its financial leadership and internal controls to strengthen financial reporting accuracy and transparency.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADM) stock is a Hold with a $61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archer Daniels Midland stock, see the ADM Stock Forecast page.