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Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
NYSE:ADM
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Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) AI Stock Analysis

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ADM

Archer Daniels Midland

(NYSE:ADM)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$68.00
▲(8.56% Upside)
ADM's overall stock score reflects strong technical momentum and stable financial performance, despite valuation concerns and segment-specific challenges. The company's strategic initiatives and positive policy developments provide a favorable outlook, but recent profitability and cash flow issues need addressing.
Positive Factors
Cost Savings
ADM expects to achieve significant cost savings, which will positively impact the company's financial health.
Earnings Growth
Policy tailwinds are expected to drive earnings growth, boosting the company's future prospects.
Negative Factors
International Trade
Trade flows shifting more towards Latin America are a net negative for ADM due to its larger US trading footprint.
Regulatory Challenges
SEC/DoJ investigations ongoing and a headwind.
Tariffs Impact
Chinese tariffs on US crop exports should pressure ADM’s trading profits.

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Archer Daniels Midland Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionArcher Daniels Midland Company (ADM) is a global leader in agricultural processing and food ingredient production, headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. The company operates in two primary segments: Agricultural Services and Oilseeds and Corn Processing. ADM processes oilseeds and corn into a wide range of products, including vegetable oils, protein meals, corn sweeteners, and biofuels. Additionally, ADM is involved in the sourcing, transportation, and merchandising of agricultural commodities, making it an integral player in the global food supply chain.
How the Company Makes MoneyADM generates revenue through several key streams: the processing of oilseeds and corn into various food and feed ingredients, which includes vegetable oils, protein meals, and sweeteners; the trading and transportation of agricultural commodities; and the production of biofuels. The company benefits from economies of scale and a vast network of facilities that allow it to optimize its supply chain and reduce costs. Significant partnerships with farmers, suppliers, and distributors enhance its operational efficiency and market reach. Additionally, ADM's commitment to innovation in food and nutrition, including the development of sustainable and plant-based products, positions it favorably to capitalize on growing consumer trends.

Archer Daniels Midland Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted ADM's focus on operational resilience and strategic cost management, alongside positive external policy developments. However, significant challenges were noted in specific segments such as AS&O and Carbohydrate Solutions, as well as in South American operations.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Cash Flow and Operational Resilience
Cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $1.2 billion for the first half of the year. ADM reported its best performance in limiting unscheduled and unplanned downtime in more than five years.
Recognition as a Top Workplace
ADM was named one of America's greatest workplaces in manufacturing, showcasing the dedication and efforts of its workforce.
Decatur East Plant Recommissioning
Significant progress was made in recommissioning the Decatur East facility, which is expected to positively impact costs within the Specialty Ingredients business moving forward.
Improved Biofuel Policy Environment
Positive developments in U.S. tax and biofuel policies are expected to uplift crush and biodiesel margins and support ADM's strategic initiatives.
Operational Excellence and Cost Management
ADM is on track for targeted $500 million to $750 million in aggregate cost savings over the next 3 to 5 years through portfolio management and operational optimizations.
Negative Updates
Decline in AS&O Segment Operating Profit
AS&O segment operating profit was $379 million, down 17% compared to the prior year quarter due to limited clarity on legislative and biofuel policy impacting margins.
Challenges in South American Origination
South American origination results were lower due to lower volumes and margins, impacted by the loss of operations at a key port facility in Brazil and foreign exchange impacts.
Pressure on Crushing Subsegment
Operating profit in the Crushing subsegment was $33 million, down 75% from the prior year quarter, with global crushing margins significantly lower.
Softness in Carbohydrate Solutions
Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit was $337 million, down 6% from the prior year quarter, affected by declining starch demand and higher corn costs in EMEA.
Nutrition Segment Challenges
Despite sequential improvements, the Nutrition segment faced headwinds with Specialty Ingredients and Health and Wellness, impacting overall performance.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of 2025, ADM reported an adjusted earnings per share of $0.93 and a total segment operating profit of $830 million. The company's trailing fourth quarter adjusted return on invested capital (ROIC) was 6.9%, and cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $1.2 billion for the first half of the year. Despite facing challenges, ADM expects to achieve adjusted earnings per share of around $4 for the full year 2025, driven by strategic cost management, operational excellence, and favorable policy developments in biofuel and trade. The company is on track for $500 million to $750 million in aggregate cost savings over the next 3 to 5 years and has lowered its capital expenditure expectations to $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion for 2025. ADM also highlighted significant progress in its Nutrition segment, with the Decatur East plant coming back online and contributing positively to costs.

Archer Daniels Midland Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Archer Daniels Midland shows a mix of strengths and challenges across its financial statements. The income statement reveals solid historical profit margins, but recent revenue and profit growth challenges are evident. The balance sheet indicates strong financial stability with good leverage management and equity ratios. However, the significant decline in free cash flow growth presents a potential risk. Overall, while ADM is financially stable, it must address revenue and cash flow pressures to sustain long-term growth.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Archer Daniels Midland's income statement shows a strong historical gross profit margin, which stood at approximately 6.3% for the TTM period. However, the net profit margin has decreased from previous years to about 1.6% due to a decline in net income. Revenue growth has been volatile, decreasing by 2% in the most recent TTM period. Overall, the company maintains reasonable profitability but faces challenges with recent revenue contraction.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.56, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. The equity ratio is healthy at approximately 41.4%, suggesting strong equity financing. Return on equity is moderate at around 6.2% for the TTM, showing a slight decline from previous years. Overall, ADM exhibits solid financial stability despite fluctuating equity returns.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a decrease in free cash flow, which fell significantly by 81.7% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.28, indicating effective cash generation from operations. However, the decline in free cash flow growth presents concerns about cash availability for future investments. Overall, while operating cash flows remain strong, the reduction in free cash flow growth is a potential risk.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue83.86B85.53B93.94B101.56B85.25B64.36B
Gross Profit5.30B5.78B7.51B7.57B5.99B4.45B
EBITDA3.57B4.10B6.00B6.66B4.57B3.20B
Net Income1.37B1.80B3.48B4.34B2.71B1.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets53.40B53.27B54.63B59.77B56.14B49.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments897.00M857.00M1.37B1.04B943.00M666.00M
Total Debt12.42B11.54B9.60B10.29B10.58B11.05B
Total Liabilities31.02B30.84B30.17B35.16B33.37B29.62B
Stockholders Equity22.12B22.17B24.13B24.28B22.48B20.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow224.00M1.23B2.97B2.16B5.43B-3.21B
Operating Cash Flow1.75B2.79B4.46B3.48B6.59B-2.39B
Investing Cash Flow-1.60B-2.70B-1.50B-1.40B-2.67B4.46B
Financing Cash Flow-941.00M-1.53B-4.60B-2.50B-1.12B-423.00M

Archer Daniels Midland Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price62.64
Price Trends
50DMA
56.13
Positive
100DMA
51.89
Positive
200DMA
50.06
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.20
Negative
RSI
70.22
Negative
STOCH
68.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.68, above the 50-day MA of 56.13, and above the 200-day MA of 50.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.22 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADM.

Archer Daniels Midland Risk Analysis

Archer Daniels Midland disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Archer Daniels Midland reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Archer Daniels Midland Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
84
Outperform
$5.61B4.6355.96%7.19%83.19%339.22%
77
Outperform
$30.10B27.574.93%3.24%-6.70%-54.38%
77
Outperform
$16.85B8.4113.20%3.28%-8.87%13.21%
76
Outperform
$1.74B11.627.49%3.17%1.41%
71
Outperform
$10.00B
2.95%
71
Outperform
$19.80B24.944.31%3.52%1.99%
63
Neutral
$20.51B14.42-2.77%3.14%2.08%-6.12%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ADM
Archer Daniels Midland
62.64
4.36
7.48%
BG
Bunge Global
84.22
-11.70
-12.20%
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods
115.64
50.28
76.93%
FDP
Fresh Del Monte Produce
36.28
7.63
26.63%
TSN
Tyson Foods
56.78
-5.87
-9.37%
SFD
Smithfield Foods
25.43
5.62
28.37%

Archer Daniels Midland Corporate Events

Shareholder Meetings
Archer Daniels Midland Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 14, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Archer Daniels Midland held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where all board nominees were elected, executive compensation was approved, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as independent auditors for 2025. However, a proposal to remove the one-year holding period requirement for calling a special stockholder meeting was not passed.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADM) stock is a Hold with a $66.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archer Daniels Midland stock, see the ADM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025