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Archer Daniels Midland
(NYSE:ADM)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$84.00
â–¼(-2.23% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven primarily by solid cash-flow generation and a stable balance sheet, reinforced by a notably positive earnings call with raised full-year EPS guidance. Offsetting these strengths are compressed profitability/returns versus prior peak years, weak near-term technical positioning (price below key moving averages), and a high P/E that limits valuation support despite a ~2.6% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Strong trailing‑twelve‑month operating cash flow ($5.9B) and free cash flow ($4.8B, +14%) show durable cash conversion. This underpins capital allocation flexibility — funding capex, sustaining the long dividend streak, opportunistic buybacks, debt reduction and strategic investments through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Compressed profitability and returns
Margins and returns remain depressed (TTM net margin ~1.3%, ROE ~4.8%), well below historical peaks. Persistently low profitability reduces return on invested capital, limits reinvestment and shareholder return capacity, and means earnings are more sensitive to small shifts in commodity spreads or operating costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Strong trailing‑twelve‑month operating cash flow ($5.9B) and free cash flow ($4.8B, +14%) show durable cash conversion. This underpins capital allocation flexibility — funding capex, sustaining the long dividend streak, opportunistic buybacks, debt reduction and strategic investments through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Archer Daniels Midland Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by business segment, revealing which areas are driving sales and where there might be potential for expansion or risk.
Breaks down revenue by business segment, revealing which areas are driving sales and where there might be potential for expansion or risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyArcher Daniels Midland (ADM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$38.20B
Dividend Yield2.6%
Average Volume (3M)3.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.5
Beta (1Y)0.26
Revenue Growth-3.82%
EPS Growth-20.58%
CountryUS
Employees41,147
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.23
Shares Outstanding481,956,500
10 Day Avg. Volume2,936,195
30 Day Avg. Volume3,283,973
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.66
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio6.62
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$77.40Price Target Upside-9.92% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$85.76B
Archer Daniels Midland Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and es...
How the Company Makes Money
ADM primarily makes money by monetizing its role as an integrated operator across the agricultural value chain—earning revenue from (1) merchandising and logistics of commodities and (2) processing crops into higher-value products and ingredients....
Archer Daniels Midland Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: the company delivered a strong quarter with substantial YoY operating profit gains across AS&O and Carbohydrate Solutions, meaningful improvement in Nutrition operating profit, a raised full-year EPS guidance, strong cash generation and sustained balance-sheet strength. Management highlighted concrete growth initiatives (debottlenecking, natural colors TAM capture, precision fermentation pilots), sustainability progress and continued cost-savings execution. Key risks include revenue softness in parts of Nutrition, liquid sweetener weakness, mark-to-market/timing volatility, a decline in Wilmar earnings, geopolitical uncertainties and exposure to Q4 margin volatility given limited coverage. On balance, the operational and financial upside materially outweighs the noted risks and uncertainties.Positive Updates
Strong overall Q2 financial performance
Adjusted EPS of $1.84 for Q2 and total segment operating profit of $1.5 billion; trailing four-quarter adjusted ROIC at 7.8% and cash flow from operations before working capital changes of $1.8 billion for H1 2026.
Negative Updates
Nutrition revenue decline despite profit improvement
Nutrition revenues were $1.9 billion, down 5% YoY (Human Nutrition revenue -4% YoY, prior year included a $55 million contract cancellation benefit; Animal Nutrition revenue -6% YoY due to portfolio actions and Akralos JV).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong overall Q2 financial performance
Adjusted EPS of $1.84 for Q2 and total segment operating profit of $1.5 billion; trailing four-quarter adjusted ROIC at 7.8% and cash flow from operations before working capital changes of $1.8 billion for H1 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ADM raised full‑year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.60 (from $4.15–$4.70), citing Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.84 and total segment operating profit of $1.5B, with first‑half adjusted EPS of ~$2.55, trailing four‑quarter adjusted ROIC of 7.8% and cash flow from operations before working capital of ~$1.8B in H1; the raise rests on three pillars—continued execution, a constructive crushing/ethanol margin backdrop, and Nutrition momentum—and management expects more than half of 2026 operating profit in H2 (Q3 potentially > Q4). Guidance assumptions include China continuing to buy against its ~25M‑ton U.S. soybean commitment, realization of reversals to prior net negative mark‑to‑market/timing (Q2 AS&O included ~ $100M net positive MTM impacts and RPO had ~($50M) headwind), and an increased net benefit from 45Z to ~ $250M (from ~$150M). Other planning metrics called out on the call: Q2 AS&O op profit $867M (+129%), Ag Services $293M (+159%), Crushing $363M (+~$330M), Carb Solutions $411M (+22%), Starches & Sweeteners $326M (+7%), Vantage $85M (+$52M), Nutrition revenue $1.9B (−5%) and Nutrition op profit $172M (+51%); 337k metric tons CO2 sequestered in the quarter; H1 CapEx $466M with FY CapEx guide $1.3–$1.5B; dividends $256M (378th consecutive); net leverage 1.6x (target YE ~2x); and aggregated cost‑savings target of $500–$750M over 3–5 years.Archer Daniels Midland Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 80.61B | 80.27B | 85.53B | 93.94B | 101.56B | 85.25B |
| Gross Profit | 4.70B | 5.03B | 5.78B | 7.51B | 7.57B | 5.99B |
| EBITDA | 3.90B | 3.05B | 4.10B | 6.00B | 6.66B | 4.57B |
| Net Income | 1.08B | 1.08B | 1.80B | 3.48B | 4.34B | 2.71B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 55.60B | 34.66B | 53.27B | 54.63B | 59.77B | 56.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 624.00M | 1.05B | 857.00M | 1.37B | 1.04B | 943.00M |
| Total Debt | 10.66B | 8.41B | 11.54B | 9.60B | 10.29B | 10.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 32.49B | 11.63B | 30.84B | 30.17B | 35.16B | 33.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 22.80B | 22.73B | 22.17B | 24.13B | 24.28B | 22.48B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.79B | 4.20B | 1.23B | 2.97B | 2.16B | 5.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.94B | 5.45B | 2.79B | 4.46B | 3.48B | 6.59B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.02B | -1.02B | -2.70B | -1.50B | -1.40B | -2.67B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.86B | -2.89B | -1.53B | -4.60B | -2.50B | -1.12B |
Archer Daniels Midland Technical Analysis
Neutral
85.92
Price Trends
80.20
Negative
76.41
Positive
69.08
Positive
Market Momentum
0.32
Positive
38.42
Neutral
9.34
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 85.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 82.48, above the 50-day MA of 80.20, and above the 200-day MA of 69.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ADM.
Archer Daniels Midland Risk Analysis
Archer Daniels Midland disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Archer Daniels Midland reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Archer Daniels Midland Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $4.12B | 13.34 | 11.82% | 5.33% | -31.68% | -73.76% | |
73 Outperform | $10.25B | 10.13 | 15.25% | 4.28% | 8.00% | -1.43% | |
64 Neutral | $38.20B | 35.55 | 4.78% | 2.40% | -3.82% | -20.58% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | $20.41B | 20.63 | 6.35% | 2.32% | 80.50% | -48.63% | |
56 Neutral | $20.00B | 43.91 | 2.50% | 3.53% | 3.91% | -50.15% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ADM
Archer Daniels Midland
78.06
22.20
39.74%
BG
Bunge Global
105.40
25.25
31.50%
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods
87.06
-14.96
-14.67%
TSN
Tyson Foods
59.61
6.66
12.59%
SFD
Smithfield Foods
25.98
1.88
7.81%
Archer Daniels Midland Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
ADM appoints Jeff Rowe as new chief operating officer
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
ADM, the global agricultural processor and nutrition and bio-based solutions provider, has appointed industry veteran Jeff Rowe to the newly created role of executive vice president and chief operating officer, effective August 17, 2026. Rowe, a f...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Archer Daniels Midland Shareholders Approve Board and Pay
Positive
May 12, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Archer Daniels Midland held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, at which all nominees to the Board of Directors were elected and shareholders gave advisory approval to the compensation of the company’s named executive of...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.