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Archer Daniels Midland
(NYSE:ADM)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$87.00
â–²(29.77% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/13/26
ADM scores as a moderately attractive setup: strong current cash flow and a stable balance sheet are the main positives, reinforced by constructive earnings-call guidance (raised full-year EPS outlook). The score is held back by materially compressed profitability and a relatively high P/E versus current margin/ROE levels, despite supportive technical momentum.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained high operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: supports the long-running dividend, funds $1.3–$1.5B annual CapEx, enables debt reduction or opportunistic investment, and cushions the business versus cyclical commodity swings, improving resilience over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Compressed profitability
Net margins and ROE are significantly down from historical levels, indicating weaker returns on capital. Low profitability constrains internal reinvestment, limits ability to deleverage quickly, and means earnings remain sensitive to commodity spreads and modest margin shifts even if revenue recovers.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained high operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: supports the long-running dividend, funds $1.3–$1.5B annual CapEx, enables debt reduction or opportunistic investment, and cushions the business versus cyclical commodity swings, improving resilience over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Archer Daniels Midland Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by business segment, revealing which areas are driving sales and where there might be potential for expansion or risk.
Breaks down revenue by business segment, revealing which areas are driving sales and where there might be potential for expansion or risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyArcher Daniels Midland (ADM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$37.01B
Dividend Yield3.55%
Average Volume (3M)3.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.4
Beta (1Y)0.30
Revenue Growth-3.82%
EPS Growth-20.58%
CountryUS
Employees42,383
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.23
Shares Outstanding481,956,500
10 Day Avg. Volume3,668,437
30 Day Avg. Volume3,697,065
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.66
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio6.62
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$77.00Price Target Upside14.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$86.41B
Archer Daniels Midland Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and es...
How the Company Makes Money
ADM makes money primarily by buying crops and other agricultural inputs, processing them into higher-value products, and selling those products to food manufacturers, animal feed producers, industrial customers, and fuel markets, while also earnin...
Archer Daniels Midland Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive and improving picture: ADM raised full-year guidance, delivered record crush volumes, strong ethanol and nutrition profitability, and advanced strategic growth and decarbonization initiatives. These positives were partially offset by a significant ($275M) mark-to-market/timing headwind that depressed AS&O results in Q1, ongoing softness in starches & sweeteners, and near-term leverage seasonality. Management expects most mark-to-market impacts to reverse and is confident in execution and policy-driven tailwinds, supporting an overall positive outlook.Positive Updates
Raised Full-Year Guidance
ADM raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.15–$4.70 (up from $3.60–$4.25), reflecting improved commodity/margin environment and strong execution.
Negative Updates
AS&O Segment Weakness and Mark-to-Market Hit
AS&O segment operating profit was $273 million, down 34% YoY, and included approximately $275 million of net negative mark-to-market and timing impacts (majority expected to reverse later in 2026).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Raised Full-Year Guidance
ADM raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.15–$4.70 (up from $3.60–$4.25), reflecting improved commodity/margin environment and strong execution.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ADM raised full‑year adjusted EPS guidance to $4.15–$4.70 (up from $3.60–$4.25) after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.71 and total segment operating profit of $764 million, citing stronger crush and ethanol margins; Q1 included ~ $275 million of net negative mark‑to‑market/timing impacts (majority expected to reverse in Q2) and management now models roughly $150 million of 45Z benefit for 2026. Other key metrics: Q1 cash flow from operations before working capital $442M, Q1 CapEx $194M with full‑year CapEx guidance $1.3–$1.5B, net leverage 2.2x at March 31 (year‑end target ~2.0x), dividend paid $254M (377th consecutive quarter), and a $500–$750M cost‑savings target over 3–5 years. Segment-levels cited include Carb Solutions operating profit $356M (+48% YoY), AS&O $273M (‑34% YoY) with Ag Services $200M (+26%) and a crushing loss of $79M, Nutrition revenue $1.8B (‑1%) and operating profit $135M (+42%), and oilseeds crush tonnage +2% YoY; management expects Q2 to be stronger than Q1 and a roughly 49/51 split H1/H2.Archer Daniels Midland Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 80.61B | 80.27B | 85.53B | 93.94B | 101.56B | 85.25B |
| Gross Profit | 4.70B | 5.03B | 5.78B | 7.51B | 7.57B | 5.99B |
| EBITDA | 3.90B | 3.05B | 4.10B | 6.00B | 6.66B | 4.57B |
| Net Income | 1.08B | 1.08B | 1.80B | 3.48B | 4.34B | 2.71B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 55.60B | 34.66B | 53.27B | 54.63B | 59.77B | 56.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 624.00M | 1.05B | 857.00M | 1.37B | 1.04B | 943.00M |
| Total Debt | 10.66B | 8.41B | 11.54B | 9.60B | 10.29B | 10.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 32.49B | 11.63B | 30.84B | 30.17B | 35.16B | 33.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 22.80B | 22.73B | 22.17B | 24.13B | 24.28B | 22.48B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.79B | 4.20B | 1.23B | 2.97B | 2.16B | 5.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.94B | 5.45B | 2.79B | 4.46B | 3.48B | 6.59B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.02B | -1.02B | -2.70B | -1.50B | -1.40B | -2.67B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.86B | -2.89B | -1.53B | -4.60B | -2.50B | -1.12B |
Archer Daniels Midland Technical Analysis
Positive
67.04
Price Trends
77.60
Negative
73.34
Positive
66.71
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.55
Positive
46.68
Neutral
76.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 78.06, below the 50-day MA of 77.60, and above the 200-day MA of 66.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADM.
Archer Daniels Midland Risk Analysis
Archer Daniels Midland disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Archer Daniels Midland reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Archer Daniels Midland Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $3.97B | 5.83 | 26.11% | 10.53% | -8.85% | -29.16% | |
73 Outperform | $9.67B | 9.56 | 15.25% | 4.44% | 8.00% | -1.43% | |
68 Neutral | $37.01B | 34.43 | 4.78% | 3.55% | -3.82% | -20.58% | |
63 Neutral | $20.66B | 24.64 | 4.68% | 3.14% | 56.89% | -45.77% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
57 Neutral | $20.32B | 44.61 | 2.50% | 3.48% | 3.91% | -50.15% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ADM
Archer Daniels Midland
76.79
23.94
45.28%
BG
Bunge Global
106.46
33.66
46.24%
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods
83.85
-12.27
-12.76%
TSN
Tyson Foods
58.89
5.02
9.31%
SFD
Smithfield Foods
24.58
1.52
6.61%
Archer Daniels Midland Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Archer Daniels Midland Shareholders Approve Board and Pay
Positive
May 12, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Archer Daniels Midland held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, at which all nominees to the Board of Directors were elected and shareholders gave advisory approval to the compensation of the company’s named executive of...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
ADM Expands Board, Appoints Michael McMurray Director
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 9, 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland increased its board size from 12 to 13 directors and elected former LyondellBasell executive vice president and CFO Michael C. McMurray as an independent director, effective immediately. He will serve until...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.