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Vici Properties (VICI)
NYSE:VICI
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VICI Properties
(NYSE:VICI)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$34.00
â–²(12.43% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins and solid cash generation in 2020–2024) and a supportive earnings outlook (2026 AFFO guidance and disciplined leverage/liquidity). Valuation is also favorable with a high dividend yield and modest P/E. Offsetting factors are stretched technical momentum (overbought signals) and reduced confidence in the latest-year financial statement trend due to apparent 2025 data anomalies.
Positive Factors
Efficient triple‑net operating model
A triple-net lease structure and very low corporate overhead materially reduce operating leverage and variability. This supports persistently high net margins, predictable rental cash flows, and scalable low-cost operations—durable drivers of AFFO and dividend coverage across cycles.
Consistent AFFO growth and 2026 guidance
Multi-year AFFO growth and explicit 2026 guidance reflect repeatable cash generation from long-term leases and disciplined capital allocation. Reliable AFFO growth underpins dividend sustainability, supports reinvestment, and signals durable earnings quality for the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Active, high‑yielding capital deployment & diversification
Disciplined originations and sale-leasebacks at high initial yields strengthen cash returns and diversify counterparty and geographic exposure. Relationship-driven deployments lower concentration risk over time while boosting portfolio income and long-term AFFO per share.
Negative Factors
Caesars tenant concentration
Material exposure to a single operator concentrates cash‑flow risk: protracted lease negotiations or adverse outcomes could reduce rents or delay cash collections. That single‑tenant concentration is a structural vulnerability to negotiation leverage and cyclical demand shifts.
Near‑term debt maturities / refinancing risk
Large clustered maturities create execution risk if market conditions worsen; even with ~$3.2B liquidity, refinancing at higher rates would raise interest expense and could compress AFFO margins. Reliance on access to capital markets is a meaningful structural funding sensitivity.
Reduced upside from PENN lease restructure
Replacing percent‑rent structures with fixed escalators lowers volatility but removes participation in operator outperformance. This reduces long‑term organic rent upside and caps potential AFFO growth tied to tenant revenue improvement, limiting upside in stronger demand cycles.
VICI Properties (VICI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$32.36B
Dividend Yield6.36%
Average Volume (3M)9.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5
Beta (1Y)0.25
Revenue Growth4.31%
EPS Growth-2.52%
CountryUS
Employees27
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.57
Shares Outstanding1,068,811,400
10 Day Avg. Volume7,536,851
30 Day Avg. Volume9,002,610
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.51
Price to Book (P/B)1.07
Price to Sales (P/S)7.45
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.64
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.22Price Target Upside9.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.12B
VICI Properties Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVICI Properties is an experiential real estate investment trust that owns one of the largest portfolios of market-leading gaming, hospitality and entertainment destinations, including the world-renowned Caesars Palace. VICI Properties' national, geographically diverse portfolio consists of 29 gaming facilities comprising over 48 million square feet and features approximately 19,200 hotel rooms and more than 200 restaurants, bars and nightclubs. Its properties are leased to industry leading gaming and hospitality operators, including Caesars Entertainment, Inc., Century Casinos Inc., Hard Rock International, JACK Entertainment and Penn National Gaming, Inc. VICI Properties also owns four championship golf courses and 34 acres of undeveloped land adjacent to the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties' strategy is to create the nation's highest quality and most productive experiential real estate portfolio.
How the Company Makes MoneyVICI Properties generates revenue primarily through long-term leases of its properties to gaming operators. These leases are typically structured as triple-net leases, meaning that the tenants are responsible for property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs, which minimizes VICI's operational expenses and provides a steady cash flow. The company's revenue model is heavily reliant on the performance of the gaming industry; therefore, VICI benefits from the stability and growth potential of its tenants' businesses. Key revenue streams include rental income from its extensive portfolio of properties, and VICI may also benefit from strategic partnerships with major gaming operators to expand its property holdings. Additionally, VICI engages in opportunistic acquisitions of gaming properties, further enhancing its revenue-generating capacity.
VICI Properties Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business lines (such as casino leases, hotel operations, and retail), showing which activities drive cash flow and where growth or risk is concentrated. Helps assess diversification, reliance on gaming and tourism, and how shifts in consumer spending or travel could affect returns.
Breaks down revenue across different business lines (such as casino leases, hotel operations, and retail), showing which activities drive cash flow and where growth or risk is concentrated. Helps assess diversification, reliance on gaming and tourism, and how shifts in consumer spending or travel could affect returns.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVICI Properties Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized solid operating and financial performance (mid-single-digit AFFO and AFFO per-share growth, strong margins, conservative G&A, healthy liquidity and portfolio diversification) and active, relationship-driven capital deployment ($2.1 billion in 2025 at a weighted initial yield of 8.9%). Management also initiated 2026 AFFO guidance and highlighted successful operator-led asset turnarounds (The Venetian). Challenges discussed were mostly execution and market-cycle risks (one de minimis nonaccrual loan, near-term debt maturities requiring refinancing or bond issuance, ongoing negotiations with large tenant Caesars, and softer Las Vegas normalization). Overall, the positives — recurring earnings growth, disciplined balance sheet, active originations and partnerships, and margin strength — materially outweigh the contained operational and financing risks described on the call.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
AFFO Growth — Quarterly and Full Year
Q4 AFFO increased 6.8% year-over-year to $642.5 million; AFFO per share rose 5.6% YoY to $0.60. Full year 2025 AFFO increased 6.6% YoY to $2.5 billion; AFFO per share increased 5.1% YoY to $2.38.
Capital Deployment and New Partnerships
VICI committed approximately $2.1 billion of capital in 2025 across partnerships and transactions including a $450 million mezzanine loan (Cain & Eldridge), a $510 million delayed draw term loan (Red Rock / North Fork), Clairvest transaction (future tenant), and a $1.16 billion sale-leaseback with Golden Entertainment. The combined activity carried a weighted average initial yield of 8.9%.
Initiation of 2026 AFFO Guidance
Company initiated AFFO guidance for 2026 at $2.59 billion to $2.625 billion, or $2.42 to $2.45 per diluted common share (guidance excludes not-yet-closed transactions and nonrecurring items).
Efficient Operating Model and Low Overhead
G&A was $19.3 million for the quarter and $65.1 million for the year, representing only 1.9% and 1.6% of total revenues, respectively, underscoring a low-cost triple-net operating model.
Strong Profitability and Margin Profile
Reported net income margin for the year of approximately 69%, described as one of the highest net income margins in the S&P 500.
Balance Sheet Liquidity and Leverage Position
Total debt of $17.1 billion with net debt to annualized Q4 adjusted EBITDA of ~5x (at the low end of the 5.0–5.5x target). Total liquidity ~ $3.2 billion composed of $608 million cash, $243 million proceeds under forwards, and ~$2.4 billion revolver availability. Weighted average interest rate (hedge-adjusted) ~4.46% and weighted average maturity ~6 years.
Portfolio Diversification Progress
Company reduced concentration vs. inception: from 100% exposure to Caesars historically to the high 30s percent of annual rent roll today, showing progress on tenant/geography/category diversification.
Operational Success Case Study — The Venetian
Management highlighted Harvard Business School case on The Venetian: property EBITDAR increased from $487 million pre-pandemic to $777 million in 2024; guest satisfaction up from 56% to 61% after >$1 billion of capital investment and employee engagement programs, illustrating value from operator-driven transformations.
Execution on Development Loan — North Fork (Kalahari)
Construction for North Fork (Kalahari) reported on time and slightly under budget with opening expected in the fall, reflecting positive execution on a material development exposure.
Negative Updates
Loan on Nonaccrual (Golf Development)
Company placed a senior loan collateralized by a golf development on nonaccrual due to borrower working capital issues; management described it as de minimis to the loan book and stated no 2026 earnings impact is included in guidance.
Caesars Master Lease Discussions and Concentration Risk
Ongoing, unscheduled discussions with Caesars regarding the master lease indicate uncertainty. Although exposure has been reduced materially over time, Caesars still represents a significant single-tenant concentration (high 30s% of annual rent), and outcomes/timing remain unclear.
Upcoming Debt Maturities and Refinancing Needs
Material maturities approaching (e.g., $500 million in September, $1.25 billion in December 2026, plus ~$1.5 billion in early 2027). Management expects to access the bond market; estimated new unsecured cost referenced in discussion implies low-5% all-in coupon on 10-year equivalents (125–130 bps over benchmark), higher than current weighted cost of 4.46%.
Regional Market Pricing and Cap Rate Sensitivity
Investors questioned pricing on the Golden portfolio (Nevada locals) amid mid-7% cap pricing relative to broader regional transactions often trading at 8%+. While management defended the strategic merits, pricing could set expectations for tighter yields in certain sub-markets and raises valuation scrutiny.
Reduction of Upside in PENN Lease Combination
Combination of two PENN leases simplified escalators and eliminated percentage rent (removes volatility). Management stated aggregate rent did not change this year, but the new structure reduces upside potential (less percent-rent exposure) in exchange for lower volatility/greater credit protection.
Refinancing / Loan Roll Risk (Cain Deal)
One Cain loan faces an initial maturity next month; management expects it will likely be rolled into a larger construction syndicate rather than repaid, indicating dependence on syndication/refinancing execution to preserve position.
Las Vegas Strip Normalization / Softer 2025 Trends
Management characterized 2025 as a normalization year with the Las Vegas Strip relatively softer vs. prior years (noting a YoY dip in Harry Reid Airport passengers driven by lower Canadian visitation), signaling some near-term demand headwinds in key markets.
Company Guidance
VICI initiated 2026 AFFO guidance of $2.59B–$2.625B, or $2.42–$2.45 per diluted share (versus 2025 AFFO of $2.5B and $2.38/sh; 2025 AFFO grew 6.6% YoY and AFFO/sh grew 5.1%; Q4 AFFO was $642.5M, up 6.8% YoY, or $0.60/sh, up 5.6%). The company noted it only increased share count ~1% in 2025, reported G&A of $19.3M (Q) / $65.1M (Y) (1.9% / 1.6% of revenues), a ~69% net income margin, total debt of $17.1B, net debt to annualized Q4 adjusted EBITDA ≈5x (low end of 5.0–5.5x target), a hedge‑adjusted weighted average interest rate of 4.46% with ~6 years to maturity, and about $3.2B total liquidity (≈$608M cash, $243M forwards proceeds, $2.4B revolver availability). Guidance excludes unclosed transactions, loan draws without final structures, potential acquisitions/dispositions and other nonrecurring items; management said they bake in draw‑schedule variability (e.g., Kalahari/North Fork), are mindful of upcoming maturities ($500M Sep, $1.25B Dec 2026, ~$1.5B in early 2027) and see 10‑yr unsecured debt pricing at ~+125–130bps (low‑5% all‑in) if accessed.VICI Properties Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong multi-year revenue scaling and very high profitability/margins through 2020–2024, with solid cash conversion and improving equity base. Score is tempered by apparent data integrity issues in 2025 annual financial statement line items (multiple zeros), reducing confidence in the latest-year trend.Income Statement
Revenue has scaled strongly over time (up from ~$1.23B in 2020 to ~$3.85B in 2024), with several years of robust growth and continued, albeit slower, growth in 2024. Profitability is a clear strength: net profit margins are consistently very high (roughly ~67%–73% in most years, with a notable dip in 2022), and earnings also increased in line with revenue. Key risk: the 2025 annual record shows zero values for several core line items (gross profit/EBIT/EBITDA), which reduces confidence in the latest-year operating profitability read-through even though net income and revenue are reported.84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company shows solid equity support with stockholders’ equity rising materially over time (about ~$9.4B in 2020 to ~$26.5B in 2024) alongside asset growth. Returns on equity are steady around ~10% in 2023–2024, indicating consistent profitability relative to the capital base. Leverage is meaningful but generally controlled for a REIT, with debt-to-equity mostly in the ~0.66–0.75 range (improving versus 2020 and stable in 2022–2024). Caution: the 2025 annual balance sheet shows total debt as 0, which is likely missing/erroneous given the prior trend and makes the latest leverage snapshot less reliable.77
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation quality looks strong in the years with complete data: operating cash flow comfortably covers obligations (coverage around ~2.6–3.5x in 2020–2024), and free cash flow tracks net income very closely (roughly ~1.0x), supporting earnings quality. Free cash flow also grew in most years through 2024. Main weakness: the 2025 annual cash flow line items are reported as zero and show a -100% free cash flow growth figure, creating a sharp apparent deterioration that is inconsistent with prior performance and likely reflects missing/invalid data for that period.72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.01B | 3.85B | 3.61B | 2.60B | 1.51B |
| Gross Profit | 0.00 | 3.82B | 3.58B | 2.58B | 1.49B |
| EBITDA | 0.00 | 3.56B | 3.37B | 1.68B | 1.42B |
| Net Income | 2.78B | 2.68B | 2.51B | 1.12B | 1.01B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 46.72B | 45.37B | 44.06B | 37.58B | 17.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 607.96M | 524.62M | 522.57M | 426.27M | 739.61M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 17.65B | 17.63B | 14.57B | 4.99B |
| Total Liabilities | 18.50B | 18.42B | 18.40B | 15.29B | 5.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 27.80B | 26.54B | 25.26B | 21.93B | 12.11B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.37B | 2.18B | 1.94B | 893.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 2.38B | 2.18B | 1.94B | 896.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -922.78M | -2.90B | -9.30B | 41.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.57B | -1.46B | 1.03B | 6.83B | -514.18M |
VICI Properties Technical Analysis
Neutral
30.24
Price Trends
28.57
Positive
29.03
Positive
30.31
Negative
Market Momentum
0.47
Negative
60.02
Neutral
75.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VICI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 30.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.22, above the 50-day MA of 28.57, and below the 200-day MA of 30.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VICI.
VICI Properties Risk Analysis
VICI Properties disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. VICI Properties reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
VICI Properties Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $7.00B | 26.06 | 6.52% | 3.88% | 24.60% | 8.05% | |
78 Outperform | $32.36B | 11.52 | 10.36% | 6.36% | 4.31% | -2.52% | |
73 Outperform | $2.74B | 27.83 | 8.71% | 3.99% | 5.29% | -60.36% | |
72 Outperform | $16.10B | 34.82 | 5.64% | 5.51% | 5.59% | -34.75% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $3.69B | 38.30 | 3.14% | 6.72% | 3.87% | -37.59% | |
62 Neutral | $2.12B | -8.06 | -12.53% | 10.29% | -28.94% | -28.24% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
VICI
VICI Properties
29.78
-0.76
-2.50%
WPC
W. P. Carey Inc.
74.25
12.69
20.62%
UE
Urban Edge Properties
21.29
1.75
8.98%
GNL
Global Net Lease
9.48
2.66
39.02%
EPRT
Essential Properties Realty
33.68
2.09
6.62%
BNL
Broadstone Net Lease
19.41
3.45
21.60%
VICI Properties Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
VICI Properties Posts Solid Q4 Results, Expands Investments
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
VICI Properties reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.0 billion, up 3.8% year over year, with net income to common shareholders down 1.6% to $604.8 million, or $0.57 per share, largely due to changes in its CECL allowance, while AFFO rose 6.8% to $642.5 million, or $0.60 per share. For full-year 2025, revenue grew 4.1% to $4.0 billion, net income increased 3.6% to $2.8 billion, or $2.61 per share, and AFFO climbed 6.6% to $2.5 billion, as the REIT boosted its dividend for the eighth consecutive year and ended the year with solid liquidity.
Operationally, VICI announced about $2.1 billion of 2025 capital commitments at an average initial yield of 8.9%, including a $1.16 billion sale-leaseback of seven Golden Entertainment casinos in Nevada and mezzanine and term loan investments in the One Beverly Hills and North Fork Mono Casino & Resort projects. The company also expanded its tenant and partner base through new strategic relationships with Cain and Eldridge Industries, Red Rock Resorts, Clairvest and Golden Entertainment, combined certain PENN Entertainment leases into a master lease, and set guidance for 2026, underscoring an ongoing strategy of partnership-driven growth in experiential real estate.
The most recent analyst rating on (VICI) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on VICI Properties stock, see the VICI Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.