VICI Properties (VICI) AI Stock Analysis

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VICI Properties

(NYSE:VICI)

Rating:83Outperform

Price Target:

$36.00

▲( 14.39% Upside)

VICI Properties scores highly due to strong financial performance and positive earnings call outcomes, including increased guidance and strategic partnerships. Valuation metrics and technical analysis provide additional support, though the latter shows mixed signals. The absence of 2024 cash flow data slightly tempers the score.

Positive Factors

Credit Rating

VICI Properties' recent credit rating upgrade supported more favorable pricing on two recently issued tranches of debt to address its impending 2025 debt maturities.

Earnings Growth

The expanding partnerships and capital deployment continue to drive earnings growth and pave a path to future opportunities.

Investment Strategy

VICI Properties continues to use its vast war chest to source unique investments with positive bottom-line impact while the traditional casino sale-leaseback market remains dry.

Negative Factors

Market Conditions

The most recent investment helps support financing for an incomparable mixed-use development in the Beverly Hills market, one of the wealthiest regions in the nation, implying limited risk and significant promotion.

Sector Competition

Shares trade at just 13.4x 2025E AFFO/share, slightly ahead of the net-lease sector, though when you couple earnings growth potential with a highly transparent management team and iconic portfolio, there is potential for multiple expansion.

VICI Properties (VICI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$32.97B

Dividend Yield5.49%

Average Volume (3M)6.61M

Price to Earnings (P/E)12.4

Beta (1Y)0.42

Revenue Growth5.32%

EPS Growth-0.55%

CountryUS

Employees27

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength64

IndustryREIT - Diversified

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.51

Shares Outstanding1,056,707,200

10 Day Avg. Volume5,491,345

30 Day Avg. Volume6,608,222

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-5.45

Price to Book (P/B)1.26

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio13.88

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.18

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.65

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.35

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$36.06

Price Target Upside14.59% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering14

VICI Properties Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVICI Properties is an experiential real estate investment trust that owns one of the largest portfolios of market-leading gaming, hospitality and entertainment destinations, including the world-renowned Caesars Palace. VICI Properties' national, geographically diverse portfolio consists of 29 gaming facilities comprising over 48 million square feet and features approximately 19,200 hotel rooms and more than 200 restaurants, bars and nightclubs. Its properties are leased to industry leading gaming and hospitality operators, including Caesars Entertainment, Inc., Century Casinos Inc., Hard Rock International, JACK Entertainment and Penn National Gaming, Inc. VICI Properties also owns four championship golf courses and 34 acres of undeveloped land adjacent to the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties' strategy is to create the nation's highest quality and most productive experiential real estate portfolio.

How the Company Makes MoneyVICI Properties makes money primarily through leasing its properties to casino and hotel operators under long-term, triple-net lease agreements. These agreements ensure a stable and predictable income stream as tenants are responsible for paying property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs. The company's key revenue streams include rental income from its extensive portfolio of gaming and hospitality properties. Additionally, VICI Properties benefits from strategic partnerships with major casino operators such as Caesars Entertainment and MGM Resorts International, which contribute significantly to its earnings. The company's growth strategy includes acquiring additional properties and entering into new lease agreements, further enhancing its revenue potential.

VICI Properties Financial Statement Overview

Summary

VICI Properties displays strong financial health with impressive revenue growth and profitability. The balance sheet is robust, supported by a high equity ratio and zero debt in 2024, mitigating financial risk. However, the absence of cash flow data for 2024 limits a complete assessment of cash management. Overall, the company is well-positioned within the REIT industry, with a trajectory of growth and stability.

Income Statement

Very Positive

VICI Properties demonstrates strong revenue growth with a 47.9% increase in total revenue from 2020 to 2024. The company maintained robust profitability with a consistently high gross profit margin near 100% and a net profit margin improving to 69.6% in 2024. Additionally, EBIT margins have been stable and impressive, indicating efficient operations. The absence of EBITDA data in 2024 was noted but did not significantly impact the overall analysis.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

VICI Properties shows a strong balance sheet with no total debt in 2024, significantly reducing leverage risk. The equity ratio stands at 58.5%, highlighting a solid equity base. The return on equity improved to 10.1% in 2024, reflecting efficient use of shareholders’ equity. The company’s financial stability is evident, with a consistent increase in total assets over the years.

Cash Flow

Positive

Despite a lack of free cash flow and operating cash flow data for 2024, historical data indicates positive free cash flow and consistent capital expenditure management. The strong cash position in prior years underscored operational resilience, although the absence of current data introduces uncertainty.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.88B	3.85B	3.61B	2.60B	1.51B	1.23B
	Gross Profit
3.85B	3.82B	3.58B	2.52B	1.46B	1.19B
	EBIT
3.50B	3.54B	3.34B	1.70B	1.44B	1.25B
	EBITDA
3.50B	3.54B	3.37B	1.70B	1.45B	1.26B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.63B	2.68B	2.51B	1.12B	1.01B	891.67M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
334.32M	524.62M	522.57M	426.27M	739.61M	335.97M
	Total Assets
45.53B	45.37B	44.06B	37.58B	17.60B	17.06B
	Total Debt
0.00	17.65B	17.63B	13.74B	4.69B	6.77B
	Net Debt
17.43B	17.13B	17.11B	13.53B	3.95B	6.45B
	Total Liabilities
18.50B	18.42B	18.40B	15.29B	5.41B	7.57B
	Stockholders Equity
26.61B	26.54B	25.26B	21.93B	12.11B	9.42B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
2.43B	2.37B	2.18B	1.94B	893.85M	880.87M
	Operating Cash Flow
2.43B	2.38B	2.18B	1.94B	896.35M	883.64M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.20B	-922.78M	-2.90B	-9.30B	41.45M	-4.55B
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.38B	-1.46B	1.03B	6.83B	-514.18M	2.88B

VICI Properties Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price31.47

Price Trends

50DMA

31.73

Negative

100DMA

30.87

Positive

200DMA

31.02

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.06

Positive

RSI

47.47

Neutral

STOCH

34.61

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VICI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 31.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.70, below the 50-day MA of 31.73, and above the 200-day MA of 31.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VICI.

VICI Properties Risk Analysis

VICI Properties disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. VICI Properties reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

VICI Properties Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VICI	83 Outperform	$32.97B	12.45	10.12%	5.49%	5.32%	-0.55%
EPRT	78 Outperform	$6.31B	27.47	6.01%	3.69%	25.47%	-4.35%
UE	73 Outperform	$2.34B	28.04	6.48%	3.96%	6.18%	-72.21%
WPC	68 Neutral	$13.19B	31.06	5.02%	5.84%	-5.89%	-26.36%
BNL	67 Neutral	$2.92B	26.01	3.79%	7.52%	0.73%	-37.65%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$2.76B	10.33	0.49%	8508.28%	5.95%	-17.56%
GNL	60 Neutral	$1.73B	―	-13.01%	13.43%	16.69%	39.04%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

VICI

VICI Properties

31.47

4.73

17.69%

WPC

W. P. Carey Inc.

61.37

8.56

16.21%

Urban Edge Properties

17.64

1.24

7.56%

GNL

Global Net Lease

7.73

1.42

22.50%

EPRT

Essential Properties Realty

31.88

6.49

25.56%

BNL

Broadstone Net Lease

15.46

1.51

10.82%

VICI Properties Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -1.72%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted VICI's increased guidance, successful refinancing, and new partnership with Red Rock Resorts, indicating strong financial and operational performance. However, market volatility and the challenges with tribal sale leasebacks present some concerns.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Increased AFFO Guidance

VICI Properties increased its AFFO guidance for 2025, expecting between $2.47 billion and $2.5 billion, or between $2.33 and $2.36 per diluted common share, representing a 3.8% year-over-year growth.

Successful Refinancing

VICI Properties successfully addressed all 2025 maturities with a bond offering that was six times oversubscribed, leading to a blended coupon of 5.34% and a weighted average interest rate of 4.47%.

New Relationship with Red Rock Resorts

VICI announced its first transaction with Red Rock Resorts, committing up to $510 million for the development of the North Fork Mono Casino and Resort in California, marking VICI's first gaming investment on tribal land.

Strong Liquidity Position

VICI maintains approximately $3.2 billion in total liquidity, including cash, forward equity, and availability under its revolving credit facility.

Negative Updates

Volatile Market Conditions

VICI acknowledges ongoing volatility and uncertainty in both economic and capital financing conditions, which might affect growth opportunities and animal spirits around M&A.

Challenges with Tribal Sale Leasebacks

VICI expressed hesitation about pursuing tribal sale leasebacks due to complexities and the inability to operate gaming on tribal land in the event of a default.

Company Guidance

During VICI Properties' first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided updated guidance, projecting Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) for the year to be between $2.47 billion and $2.5 billion, equating to $2.33 to $2.36 per diluted share, marking an increase from prior guidance. The revised AFFO guidance reflects a year-over-year growth expectation of 3.8%. VICI emphasized the importance of dividends to their total return strategy, noting that dividends contributed significantly to outperforming the S&P 500 over the past five years. The company highlighted its recent partnership with Red Rock Resorts involving a $510 million loan for a casino development on tribal land. Additionally, VICI successfully addressed all 2025 debt maturities, resulting in no debt maturing until September 2026, and maintained a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of approximately 5.3 times. The call also covered VICI's proactive balance sheet management, including a bond offering with a blended coupon rate of 5.34% and extended credit facility maturities to 2029, ensuring substantial liquidity to support future growth initiatives.

VICI Properties Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

VICI Properties Reports Q1 Revenue Growth Amid Challenges

Neutral

Apr 30, 2025

In the first quarter of 2025, VICI Properties reported a 3.4% increase in total revenues to $984.2 million, despite a 7.9% decrease in net income attributable to common stockholders, which was impacted by changes in the CECL allowance. The company announced strategic partnerships with Cain International and Eldridge Industries, and entered an agreement to provide up to $510 million for the development of a tribal casino managed by Red Rock Resorts. Additionally, VICI completed a $1.3 billion investment grade senior notes offering to refinance existing debt, and raised its AFFO guidance for the full year 2025.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.