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Broadstone Net Lease (BNL)
NYSE:BNL
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Broadstone Net Lease
(NYSE:BNL)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
▲(5.72% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven mainly by solid cash-flow strength but offset by increased leverage and a recent net-loss year. Technicals are moderately supportive with price above major moving averages, while valuation is mixed (high dividend yield but elevated P/E). Earnings-call tone and reiterated AFFO growth guidance provide an additional, smaller positive tilt despite tenant-credit and capital-markets risks.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent and rising operating and free cash flow provides durable funding for dividends, debt service and reinvestment. Over the next 2–6 months stronger cash generation supports capital deployment and reduces refinancing stress even if accounting earnings fluctuate.
Portfolio operating stability
Near-full occupancy and exceptionally high collections reflect the resilience of single-tenant net leases and tenant diversification. These metrics reduce downtime and variability in rental income, supporting predictable cash flows and margin stability across upcoming quarters.
Embedded growth pipeline
A large build-to-suit pipeline delivers contracted, yield-accretive cash flow as projects stabilize, converting invested capital into long-term ABR. This development emphasis offers durable organic growth and long lease durations that should bolster AFFO per share over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
A meaningful increase in debt raises interest and refinancing exposure and reduces balance-sheet flexibility. Higher leverage can constrict capital options for accretive acquisitions or equity returns and increases sensitivity to interest-cost swings over the coming 2–6 months.
Earnings volatility
The swing to a small net loss despite solid cash flow highlights earnings volatility from non-cash items or one-offs. Persistent swings can complicate stakeholder confidence, regulatory/reporting optics, and comparable-period metrics used for capital planning over the medium term.
Capital sensitivity & limited equity access
Management notes per-share results are sensitive to timing and mix of investments and dispositions, while equity markets remain constrained. Limited ability to raise large-scale equity increases reliance on debt and asset sales, amplifying execution risk in the next several quarters.
Broadstone Net Lease (BNL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.71B
Dividend Yield6.72%
Average Volume (3M)1.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)38.5
Beta (1Y)0.18
Revenue Growth3.87%
EPS Growth-37.59%
CountryUS
Employees73
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding191,423,430
10 Day Avg. Volume1,772,565
30 Day Avg. Volume1,578,298
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.78
Price to Book (P/B)1.13
Price to Sales (P/S)7.12
P/FCF Ratio10.91
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.70
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit61.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.17Price Target Upside4.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$490.91M
Broadstone Net Lease Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBNL is an internally-managed REIT that acquires, owns, and manages primarily single-tenant commercial real estate properties that are net leased on a long-term basis to a diversified group of tenants. The Company utilizes an investment strategy underpinned by strong fundamental credit analysis and prudent real estate underwriting. As of September 30, 2020, BNL's diversified portfolio consisted of 627 properties in 41 U.S. states and one property in Canada across the industrial, healthcare, restaurant, office, and retail property types, with an aggregate gross asset value of approximately $4.0 billion.
How the Company Makes MoneyBroadstone Net Lease generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of commercial properties. The company enters into long-term net lease agreements with tenants, where the tenants are responsible for most property expenses, including taxes, insurance, and maintenance. This structure allows BNL to maintain a relatively low operating cost while benefiting from stable cash flow. Additionally, BNL may earn income through property appreciation and potential lease escalations over time. The company may also engage in strategic acquisitions to expand its portfolio, which can enhance revenue growth. Key partnerships with reputable tenants in various sectors contribute to its earnings stability, as these tenants often have strong financial profiles.
Broadstone Net Lease Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrayed predominantly positive operational and strategic progress: revenue-generating metrics and AFFO grew (AFFO per share $1.49, +4.2% YoY; Q4 FFO +5.6%), occupancy and collections remained strong (99% leased, 99.8% collected), the build-to-suit pipeline and Project Triboro offer meaningful embedded growth and upside, and the company maintained disciplined capital deployment and cost control. Headwinds include ongoing tenant-specific risks (Red Lobster, Claire's), conservative bad-debt assumptions baked into guidance (75 bps), pressure and competition in the traditional acquisition market, and frustration with relative valuation that limits large-scale equity raises today. Taken together, the operational wins, pipeline visibility, and improved yields and returns outweigh the challenges, though execution and capital-market developments remain key risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
AFFO Growth and Quarterly Performance
Generated full-year AFFO per share of $1.49, representing 4.2% year-over-year growth; Q4 adjusted FFO was $75.8 million or $0.38 per share, up 5.6% vs. Q4 2024.
Strong Portfolio Operating Metrics
Portfolio ended the year 99% leased with 99.8% of rents collected, and lost rent (bad debt) totaled only 31 basis points for 2025 (down from 67 bps in 2024).
Significant 2025 Investment Activity
Deployed $748.4 million in 2025 including $429.9 million in new property acquisitions, $209.3 million in build-to-suit developments, $100.8 million in transitional capital, and $8.3 million in revenue-generating CapEx.
Attractive Investment Yields and Lease Durations
New investments carried a weighted average initial cash capitalization rate of 7.0%, weighted average remaining lease term of 14.2 years, weighted average annual rent escalations of 2.6% (50 bps above portfolio average) and a weighted average straight-line yield of 8.4%.
Build-to-Suit Pipeline and Embedded Growth
Nine in-process developments with estimated total project investment of $345 million (estimated initial cash yield 7.4% and straight-line yield 8.6%; WA lease term 12.9 years; annual escalations 2.7%). Approximately $350 million of build-to-suit developments are scheduled to stabilize in 2026, adding nearly $26 million of incremental ABR, and ~$142 million of additional projects are under executed LOIs.
Project Triboro Progress and Upside
Invested approximately $100 million in Project Triboro (transitional capital); site work commenced in Q4 2025, initial power delivery anticipated as early as Q3 2027; primary path is a hyperscale data center campus on a 1 GW-capable site with unsolicited proposals valuing the project significantly above invested capital.
Portfolio Dispositions and Capital Recycling
Sold 28 properties in 2025 for gross proceeds of $96 million at an average cash cap rate of 7.3%, targeting opportunistic, accretive recycling (targeting ~100 bps accretion where possible).
Disciplined Expense and Balance Sheet Management
Core G&A totaled $28.7 million for the year, down 2% year-over-year; pro forma leverage ended at ~5.8x with over $700 million available on the revolver and limited near-term maturities through 2027; amended term loans reduced rates by 10–25 bps and extended the 2029 loan to Feb 2031.
Dividend Increase and 2026 Guidance
Board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.2925 per share (approximately a 1% increase), and management reiterated 2026 AFFO guidance of $1.53 to $1.57 per share (roughly a 4% increase at the midpoint). 2026 guidance assumptions include $500–$625 million of investment volume, $75–$100 million of dispositions, core G&A of $30–$31 million and a 75 bps lost-rent assumption.
Negative Updates
Operator/Tenant Credit Events and Brand Exposure
Notable tenant/brand stress: Red Lobster underperformance across some sites (represents ~1.3% of ABR across 18 sites under a master lease through 2042), prompting evaluation of sale/lease strategies to reduce exposure; Claire's exercised lease termination effective June 30 (no termination fee due to bankruptcy history).
Market Reaction to Isolated Bankruptcy Event
American Signature filed for bankruptcy in November (represented ~1% of ABR) and the stock reacted with a >5% decline (approx. $150 million market cap impact) despite ultimately realizing no bad debt after Gartner White assumed the leases—illustrating outsized market sensitivity to credit headlines.
Conservative Bad Debt Assumption in Guidance
Although actual lost rent was 31 bps in 2025, 2026 guidance includes a conservative 75 bps lost-rent assumption, reflecting cautious underwriting for tenant credit risk.
Equity Market Access and Relative Valuation Frustration
Management remains frustrated with relative valuation vs. peers; only modest ATM equity activity (~$43 million gross proceeds raised since November) and team does not expect to raise significant equity at current levels, limiting one source of growth funding until multiples improve.
Interest Expense and Competition on Traditional Acquisitions
Higher interest expense tied to revolver usage and increased acquisition activity; traditional regular-way acquisition cap rates have been under pressure due to competition, making some stabilized acquisition opportunities less attractive vs. build-to-suit.
Sensitivity to Timing and Mix of Capital Activity
Per-share results remain sensitive to timing, amount and mix of investment and disposition activity and capital markets actions, meaning guidance and performance could shift materially if deployment/disposition timing changes.
Company Guidance
Broadstone reiterated 2026 AFFO guidance of $1.53–$1.57 per share (roughly +4% at the midpoint), assuming $500–$625 million of investment activity, $75–$100 million of dispositions, core G&A of $30–$31 million and 75 basis points of lost rent; the Board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.2925 per share (payable Apr 15, record Mar 31) with a target payout in the mid‑70% range by year‑end 2026. Management emphasized balance‑sheet and pipeline support for the guide, citing pro forma leverage of 5.8x (versus a ~6x target), $700M+ revolver capacity, roughly $43M of ATM proceeds raised (about $11M unsettled equity), ~ $350M of build‑to‑suit projects scheduled to stabilize in 2026 adding ~ $26M of incremental ABR, and an additional ~$142M of advanced projects under executed LOIs, while noting results remain sensitive to the timing, amount and mix of investments, dispositions and capital markets activity.Broadstone Net Lease Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong and improving operating/free cash flow supports dividends and debt service, but the latest year’s swing to a small net loss and a sharp increase in debt versus prior years weaken overall quality and raise risk.Income Statement
Revenue has expanded over the long run (from $322M in 2020 to $454M in 2025), but the most recent year shows a sharp profitability deterioration: net income turned slightly negative in 2025 (-$2.9M) after strong profitability in 2021–2024 (net margins roughly 27%–38%). Revenue growth is also volatile (down in 2024, then a large rebound in 2025). While operating profitability metrics look strong in several years, the swing to a net loss in 2025 raises questions around earnings quality and/or one-time items, tempering the score.56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is supported by a sizable equity base (equity of ~$2.90B in 2025 vs. total assets of ~$5.72B), but leverage increased meaningfully in the latest year: total debt rose to ~$2.59B in 2025 from ~$1.91B in 2024, pushing debt relative to equity higher (about 0.89 in 2025 vs. ~0.63–0.66 in 2021–2024). Returns on equity were modestly positive through 2024 but dipped slightly negative in 2025 alongside the net loss, indicating weaker shareholder returns and higher balance-sheet risk versus recent history.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation looks solid and improving: operating cash flow increased to ~$299M in 2025 from ~$276M in 2024, and free cash flow rose to ~$299M (up from ~$259M). Free cash flow has generally been positive across the period with a strong step-up in 2025, which is supportive for dividends and debt service. The key watch-out is the disconnect between strong cash flow and the 2025 net loss, suggesting earnings volatility even as cash collections remain healthy.74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 459.14M | 431.80M | 442.89M | 407.51M | 382.88M |
| Gross Profit | 108.00M | 407.06M | 420.31M | 385.74M | 364.42M |
| EBITDA | 365.54M | 400.42M | 380.89M | 364.21M | 328.01M |
| Net Income | 102.91M | 162.44M | 155.48M | 122.11M | 102.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.72B | 5.22B | 5.27B | 5.46B | 4.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.85B | 14.85M | 19.49M | 21.79M | 21.67M |
| Total Debt | 2.62B | 1.91B | 1.91B | 2.02B | 1.69B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.68B | 2.07B | 2.07B | 2.20B | 1.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.90B | 3.00B | 3.05B | 3.09B | 2.58B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 299.50M | 259.46M | 224.82M | 224.54M | 243.34M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 299.50M | 276.25M | 271.07M | 255.91M | 244.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -675.27M | -59.70M | 24.34M | -859.64M | -582.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 393.43M | -221.19M | -334.82M | 636.00M | 254.41M |
Broadstone Net Lease Technical Analysis
Positive
19.39
Price Trends
18.45
Positive
18.27
Positive
17.39
Positive
Market Momentum
0.23
Positive
57.59
Neutral
63.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BNL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.19, above the 50-day MA of 18.45, and above the 200-day MA of 17.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BNL.
Broadstone Net Lease Risk Analysis
Broadstone Net Lease disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Broadstone Net Lease reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Broadstone Net Lease Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $2.82B | 28.60 | 8.71% | 3.99% | 5.29% | -60.36% | |
72 Outperform | $16.36B | 35.39 | 5.64% | 5.51% | 5.59% | -34.75% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $3.71B | 38.52 | 3.14% | 6.72% | 3.87% | -37.59% | |
61 Neutral | $2.02B | -9.72 | -9.82% | 10.29% | -28.94% | -28.24% | |
53 Neutral | $747.32M | -22.25 | -3.14% | 10.83% | -12.57% | 70.50% | |
47 Neutral | $501.10M | -80.75 | ― | 9.50% | -39.94% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
BNL
Broadstone Net Lease
19.39
3.40
21.26%
WPC
W. P. Carey Inc.
74.65
12.59
20.29%
AHH
Armada Hoffler Properties
6.25
-2.35
-27.30%
UE
Urban Edge Properties
21.25
1.47
7.45%
GNL
Global Net Lease
9.42
1.99
26.72%
BRSP
BrightSpire Capital
5.81
0.14
2.41%
Broadstone Net Lease Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Broadstone Net Lease Expands Pipeline With New Developments
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, Broadstone Net Lease announced it had added two new build-to-suit development projects to its pipeline, representing a combined estimated investment of about $62.1 million. The projects comprise a state-of-the-art sub-same-day industrial warehouse and distribution center in Sarasota, Fla., and a retail development in Magnolia, Texas, a fast-growing Houston suburb.
Both developments are already underway, with land secured and construction started, underscoring the ongoing demand the company sees for high-quality industrial and retail facilities. Management framed the deals as evidence of the strength of Broadstone’s tenant and developer relationships and of its differentiated growth strategy, suggesting a continued emphasis on development-driven expansion and long-term, yield-focused leasing for stakeholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (BNL) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Broadstone Net Lease stock, see the BNL Stock Forecast page.
Financial Disclosures
Broadstone Net Lease Schedules Q4 and 2025 Earnings Release
Neutral
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. announced that it would release its financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, after markets close on February 18, 2026, followed by an earnings conference call and audio webcast on February 19, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time. The scheduled release and call will provide investors and analysts with an updated view on the REIT’s performance and portfolio of 759 net leased properties in the U.S. and Canada, marking a key event for stakeholders to assess the company’s operational progress and positioning in the net lease real estate market for 2025.
The most recent analyst rating on (BNL) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Broadstone Net Lease stock, see the BNL Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Broadstone Net Lease Issues 2026 Guidance Update
Positive
Dec 1, 2025
On December 1, 2025, Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. announced a business update and issued guidance for 2026. The company reported significant investment activities in 2025, including $696.7 million in investments and the sale of shares for $11.4 million, with plans to continue this momentum into 2026. The company maintains its 2025 AFFO guidance and expects a 4.0% growth in AFFO for 2026. These updates reflect Broadstone’s strategic focus on disciplined execution and long-term value creation, positioning it well for future growth.
The most recent analyst rating on (BNL) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Broadstone Net Lease stock, see the BNL Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Broadstone Net Lease Unveils Strategic Growth Plans
Positive
Dec 1, 2025
On December 1, 2025, Broadstone Net Lease, Inc. released its December 2025 investor presentation, highlighting its strategic focus on growth through its in-place portfolio and acquisitions. The presentation, part of their Investor Day event, outlined the company’s plans and financial guidance for 2025 and 2026, emphasizing their commitment to sustainable growth and strong stakeholder relationships.
The most recent analyst rating on (BNL) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Broadstone Net Lease stock, see the BNL Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.